From Cy Young winners to a Florida tech salesman: Pitchers share what it’s really like facing Aaron Judge
Since Aaron Judge entered the majors near the end of the 2016 season, there has not been a more prolific — and fear-inducing — slugger than the New York Yankees superstar.
Listed at 6-foot-7, 282 pounds, Judge’s mix of size, power and patience makes him every pitcher’s nightmare. Nobody has hit more home runs than Judge’s 359 since his major league debut and nothing else can get an entire stadium to perk up in anticipation quite like when No. 99 steps to the plate.
Though a midseason right elbow injury slowed the pace a bit on what could have been his best work yet, Judge is putting the finishing touches on his fourth season with at least 40 home runs and his fourth straight with an OPS over 1.000 while, yet again, entering the final weeks with the American League MVP award within his reach.
We asked those who have faced Judge throughout his major league career — and some who first got their first taste of his power before the reigning AL MVP was a household name — to share their best Aaron Judge stories.
“Maybe I should start an Aaron Judge he’s-hit-a-home-run-off-me support group”
For better or worse, every pitcher who faces Judge today goes into the matchup knowing what he is up against. But there was a time when he had the element of surprise on his side as he rose through the ranks at Fresno State.
During the 2012 season, Mark Appel was the talk of college baseball. On March 2, the ace of No. 1-ranked Stanford baseball took the mound for a nonconference matchup against Judge’s Bulldogs unaware of what awaited him.
“We had very limited scouting. Video scouting was not really a widespread thing,” Appel recalled earlier this month. “So, we knew just based off of the numbers, but it was so early in the season. I don’t think he had a prolific freshman year. He was relatively unknown to us.
“I remember we went to Fresno, and they already had some fans — probably just some of his fellow classmates — that would go to the games, and they had this little chant for him whenever he came up, I can’t even remember what it was, but it’s like, ‘Here comes the Judge.'”
Judge entered that day with no home runs nine games into his sophomore season — after hitting just two his freshman year — but took Stanford’s ace deep twice in a stunning 7-4 upset.
And the legend of Judge was born.
Appel: We kind of walked in there — I think we were No. 1 in the country — like we’re just gonna kind of steamroll these guys, you know? And we did not. We did not.
We were so dumbfounded. We were like, ‘What is going on right now?’ I think I had just come off of a game [against Texas] where I threw seven innings, 10 punches, one run maybe. I was just dominant, you know? And then we go to this, a .500 Fresno State team, and they put up a seven spot on me.
Pretty sure that year I only gave up three home runs, and two of ’em were in that game to Aaron.
Erick Fedde, Milwaukee Brewers (UNLV, 2012-14): Back then, he obviously still had that presence of a big human. I guess I didn’t have that expectation of a perennial All-Star, best hitter, MVP caliber player, but you obviously knew he had power.
Appel: I had a big fastball, especially for college. So, I think Fresno State’s game plan against me was like, ‘Hey, look for the fastball, get on it early and just try to put a barrel on it.’ I left one just kind of middle-in, right in Aaron’s sweet spot, and he just — I mean, it was one of the hardest hit balls I’ve seen. It got out in a hurry.
Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs (Oregon State, 2011-13): The first year of the BBCOR bats … I just remember we were taking BP, and we were complaining because we thought the Nike BBCOR bats just stunk. And then when we go watch Fresno State, they’re swinging Easton bats, and this one freshman was just peppering the scoreboard. Just hearing this metal bang on the scoreboard every time and it’s like, ‘Oh, we’re complaining [to Nike] about the bats.’ And then come to realize it’s not the bats. That was Aaron Judge as a freshman.”
Fedde: I saw him hit some home runs off [my UNLV] teammates that were some of the farthest balls I’ve ever seen hit.
Appel: A year later, he gets drafted in the first round … my teammates are like, ‘He’s got you to thank for that. You’re the one that put him on the map.’ And now, in hindsight, I’m like, ‘OK, guys. Turns out this guy’s a generational kind of player. I think he’s proven that he was way better than me.’
When I got called up in 2022, every day it was the Aaron Judge Home Run Tracker. We are watching history here, and so I was like, ‘Man, this is cool.’ In some ways, I felt connected to him just because I was maybe part of the origin story of Aaron Judge.
Maybe I should start an Aaron Judge he’s-hit-a-home-run-off-me support group. Maybe that’s how I get to hang out with some cool dudes.
“He just turned on it, hit it — I mean it had to be 500 feet”
After jumping on the national radar with his feats against Appel at Fresno State, Judge firmly planted himself on MLB draft boards with his performance in the prestigious Cape Cod League the following summer.
The nature of the showcase league had Judge going up against future major league aces and other collegiate pitchers nearing the end of their careers.
Frederick Shepard now manages hedge funds in San Francisco and Anthony Montefusco is a tech salesman in Orlando, Florida. Neither has pitched in a decade, but both can still quickly recall their stories of pitching to Judge that summer.
Montefusco was coming off his sophomore year at George Mason and came out of the bullpen for the Yarmouth-Dennis Red Sox to face Judge in the eighth inning on June 28, 2012. Montefusco attempted to run a fastball inside, caught too much of the strike zone and watched his pitch sail over the left-center-field fence never to be seen again.
“He just turned on it, hit it — I mean it had to be 500 feet, to the tops of the trees in their place at that point,” Montefusco recalled earlier this month.
Shepard, who pitched at Division III Amherst College, was a starting pitcher for the Wareham Gatemen that summer. On July 8, they visited Brewster, and his then-girlfriend Kristina Ballard was able to ride her bicycle to watch Shepard pitch from where she was working on the Cape.
That afternoon, she saw Aaron Judge turn on a pitch from her future husband and hit a home run that cleared the enormous trees that sat beyond the center-field fence, leaving an entire ballpark in awe.
Shepard: [Kristina] tells this story to this day — to anyone who will listen. She thinks it was so cool.
Montefusco has heard about his moment just as frequently because he grew up in New Jersey among a family of diehard Yankees fans. His mom’s favorite player? Aaron Judge.
Montefusco: I’m like, ‘How can you be after that home run?’ But it’s also hard not to be an Aaron Judge fan.
I remember getting him to two strikes. [Coach] called fastball inside, which … a physical specimen in the box, it’s always, ‘Get this ball in,’ but you don’t want to hit him. And I threw a decent pitch; he fouled it off.
Coach called fastball in again, and I was like, ‘Make sure you get it in,’ and left it kind of middle-middle, middle-third … Yeah, missed my spot, but he didn’t miss it.
Sean Manaea, New York Mets (Hyannis, 2012): I saw Aaron in the Cape, too, so I’ve really seen him all over the place.
The first thing is the size. It’s very hard to not notice that. He’s a very large human being. If I’m looking up to you, you’re a very big person because I’m a pretty big person. I remember shaking his hand and I was like, ‘Wow, that’s a pretty large hand.’ And obviously the baseball skills have been there for as long as I can remember.
Shepard: There’s nothing like standing there on the pitcher’s mound and Aaron Judge stepping to the plate, being all the way back in the box, all the way out, and you can’t pitch him anywhere. His bat reached the other batter’s box, and you couldn’t pitch him in because he was already off the plate as much as he could be. It was impossible.
Manaea: Funny story: I was throwing a no-hitter. I think into the seventh, eighth or ninth, something like that. And I hear a, one of their teammates in the dugout, is like, ‘Hey, let’s break up the no-hitter here!” And I’m like, ‘What?’ And then Judge was up, and he broke up the no-hitter.
Montefusco: It was one of those home runs that you give up and you’re not even that mad at, because of how far it was. I turned and watched it, and then my teammate from George Mason, he was on the team. I looked at him and he was laughing with his jaw on the floor.
“He’s definitely the focal point, right? His name stands out”
The challenge of facing Judge comes in two parts.
There’s the pitcher vs. slugger showdown that fans see on the field: A locked-in Judge standing 60 feet, six inches away, waiting to turn the slightest mistake into a souvenir for a fan seated 400-plus feet away in the outfield bleachers.
The mental battle begins long before that, starting in the pregame preparation when a pitcher realizes his task includes navigating a lineup with the sport’s premier long ball threat looming in the middle of it.
Max Fried, New York Yankees: I mean, he’s definitely the focal point, right? When you look at the lineup, you look at it and say, ‘You don’t want this guy to beat you.’
His name stands out so it’s definitely something you’re paying attention to and you know when he’s starting to come up or when his spot in the order is coming up.
Ryne Stanek, New York Mets: People pitch him scared and then have to come back, as opposed to being super aggressive. And I think that happens to a lot of other really good hitters. People are always super cautious and then have to go back at ’em and then they’re in such an advantage and it doesn’t work, especially when you’re facing really good hitters.
Manaea: From just the outside looking in, it’s not like he’s trying to hit home runs. It’s like he’s just trying to be a great hitter, which he is. And you could see that in the way he covers the fastball. He recognizes spin. He doesn’t strike out like a whole crazy amount.
Stanek: He doesn’t wildly chase, and he knows where he’s trying to hit the ball … he knows he doesn’t have to overswing to do damage, and he’s just got to put barrel on the ball.
Martin Perez, Chicago White Sox: We’re always talking about ‘Why you throw me this pitch’ but you have to be careful because he’s a powerful hitter. Anything he touches with the bat, it could be a homer.
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers: “I haven’t quite figured out (how to prepare for him). If I had it figured out, his numbers wouldn’t be what they are.”
Stanek: I think guys that know they have enough juice to get it out of anywhere and they don’t overswing, it minimizes holes. I think that’s one thing that he’s done a really good job of over the course of his career. He knows who he is, and he knows what he’s trying to do.
Fried: You know if you leave a ball over the plate, it’s going to go a long way.
“I mean 6-foot-8, the visual’s already like, ‘Oh s—‘”
Once the plan of attack is in place, the only thing left for a pitcher to do is step on the mound and execute — which is easier said than done.
Few players have more experience toeing the rubber against Judge than two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell. The two arrived in the majors at the same time in the same division and immediately became stars on contenders. They have also developed a close friendship over the years.
That tight bond has led to some unique interactions around their matchups — but Snell is far from the only one who recognizes the unique challenge in facing the game’s tallest slugger.
Snell: I’m either going to strike him out or walk him. So, when he swings, that’s when he gets into trouble — because it’s not going to be in the zone. And I tell him that. He thinks I’m messing with him. He’s the only person I talk to like that.
I’ve told him since even before the big leagues: ‘Don’t swing.’ I mean 6-foot-8, the visual’s already like, ‘Oh s—t.’ He connects with it; he can hit something hard back at you.
Manaea: The intimidation of just how big he is and when he steps into the box, you really feel that … Just based off the fact of him stepping into the box and his presence … I feel like he leans into that, which he should.
Aaron Civale, Chicago Cubs: He’s a lot taller than the average hitter. The area you can throw the ball in the strike zone is a lot bigger, but he has a lot of coverage. There seems to be a lot of space to throw to, but he covers in and out of the zone.
Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves: It looks like the zone is huge, but it’s still hard to throw him a strike. I’d say that’s the different visual, given how tall he is … It seems like you have all the space to work with but that’s the misleading aspect of it. He can cover all of it.
Matt Strahm, Philadelphia Phillies: I try to [block] out [the hitter] and throw whatever pitch the catcher calls. But I’m not going to lie, you can feel when someone 6-foot-6 gets in the box.
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies: You face hitters all around the league, but when you face Judge, it looks weird, because he’s bigger than everything around him.
Robbie Ray, San Francisco Giants: The zone kinda changes with him. The fastball up has to be on. A fastball up to a Cody Bellinger or a Paul Goldschmidt, isn’t as high as it is for an Aaron Judge. The fastball up has to be up. Almost to eye level of somebody else.
Strahm: It’s almost like he casts a shadow over your target. I don’t want to say intimidating, but his presence is just known.
Charlie Morton, Detroit Tigers: As an opposing player or opposing pitcher, it’s like, ‘Man, here comes Aaron Judge.’ He’s one of the best in the league. But I also just really appreciate what he’s done for baseball. How he carries himself. How he goes about his business is great.
Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins: He’s the captain and everything. It’s real. I never met Jeter, but it feels like they recreated Jeter in a lab or something for the modern era. He’s a beast out there.
“I could’ve sworn that ball was 60 rows deep”
No matter the plan going into the at-bat, giving up long home runs is an occupational hazard those who face Judge have come to accept — and those mammoth blasts stay with a pitcher forever.
Perhaps no pitcher has a more remarkable story to tell of Judge’s prestigious power than reliever Jason Adam‘s lasting memory of a time he was sure he had surrendered a tying home run at the crack of the bat.
The then-Rays closer immediately bent over on the mound with his hands on his knees, not even bothering to look to see where the ball landed. When Adam did finally turn his head, he was pleasantly surprised by the sight of outfielder Jose Siri catching the towering fly ball at the warning track. Big sigh of relief. Game over.
Adam: I could’ve sworn that ball was 60 rows deep. And I was like, ‘No way.’ I mean, he smacked it. But it was high.
That was a hilarious moment because I was like, ‘I just blew the game.’ And then I look up and I see Siri camping. I was like, ‘No way.’ And then I looked at him and he was laughing. So, yeah, that was a fun moment.
Other pitchers haven’t been quite so fortunate.
Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox: He got me at Fenway, dead center, like 2017 or 2018, it was pretty early on. Pretty sure it was a fastball. It was one of those off the bat, forget about it. It was a solo home run, and we were winning by a lot, so it didn’t bother all that much. But right off the bat, it was like ‘I’m getting a new ball.’
Boyd: He had raw power at all times. I remember he hit a homer off me in High-A Tampa, and it was one of those ones where I felt like I tried to flinch for a line drive, and it went out over the center-field wall. It was that hard.
Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies: You got to respect it. The one in Colorado earlier this year, we kind of had a pretty decent battle in his first at-bat. And I want to say we were up around eight, nine pitches in the at-bat, threw a well-located fastball down and away, and he put a really good swing on it, went backside into our bullpen.
The other one was in New York last year. Again, I want to say it was a pretty decent battle of an at-bat, and we went hard fastball in off the plate, and he was able to keep his hands in and put the barrel and hit it.
Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays: It was the third pitch. I threw a cutter right down the middle and he hit it out. It stayed right over the heart of the plate. … He’s just very talented. He stays back well.
Skubal: He’s got power to all fields so it doesn’t really matter where it’s going. If he’s hitting it hard, it has a chance to leave the yard. The one last year was a sinker to right field so it was — that’s what I’m saying, he’s got power to all yards.
Boyd: One year in Scranton, Buck Farmer and I and the wives were out to dinner. We were pitching Game 1 and 2 of the series and we were at dinner and Aaron saw us and picked up our check. That meant a ton.
We weren’t making much money back then and even got dessert. I was like, ‘Oh, that was really cool.’ He said hi on the way in and didn’t even tell us. Just picked it up and left.
And the next day Buck started, he hit two homers off Buck and the next day after I started, he hit a homer off me. … He did something nice for us and still hit a homer off me.”
Freeland: Getting to face guys like Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman — those big-name superstars in our game. Those are guys you want to be facing. You want to match up against those guys. You remember those. You remember when you punch their ticket, and you remember when they get a big hit off you for a home run.
Skubal: He’s the game’s best. That’s the beautiful part about this game. You get to compete at the highest level and you tip your cap when they do things like that because that’s special. You gotta be a special player to be able to do stuff like that and he’s one of those guys.
“He’s not seeing this. Keep throwing him this pitch”
Baseball is a game of failure for even the best sluggers and many pitchers have their own tales to tell of the times they’ve gotten the best of Judge.
Having sustained success against him is rare though, and Chris Sale has had as much as anyone over the years — having struck out Judge 17 times in 27 at-bats while limiting him to a .185 batting average.
“You have to be locked in, that’s for sure,” Sale said. “The back of his baseball card speaks for itself. You know that any mistake can be costly, especially if there are runners on.”
Some pitchers are eager to share their tales of glory — while others prefer to keep their tricks tucked away for the next time they need them.
Ryan: I’ve made some good pitches, kept him off-balance, maybe kept him guessing a little bit. Those are the main things.
[Former Twins teammate] Nick Gordon was breaking it down after I faced him. ‘He’s not seeing this. Keep throwing him this pitch.’ I kept doing it. It worked a little bit.
Fried: I remember the ones from last year. I threw a fastball that kind of beat him at the top of the zone, and I threw a 2-2 curveball.
Genesis Cabrera, Minnesota Twins: I attacked the zone. I threw a couple curves really well, that’s why he missed it.
Adam: You know his weaknesses; you know his strengths. He knows what I throw him. So, there’s an element of just trying to maintain unpredictability.
He’s the best in the world, but good pitches will still typically get him out, so you just try to make good pitches and trust the odds are still in your favor.
Perez: I can’t tell you the spot to get him out. I might be facing him [again]. For me it’s location. It’s not about velocity.
Of course, against Judge, success is measured a little differently.
Fried: You just have to really be careful of making the pitches and I think there’s also an element of ‘If you walk him, it’s not the end of the world.’
Snell: The rest of the team I’m going to challenge and all that. But him? I’m not going to let him be the one to get me.”
With conference play set to open across the country in Week 3, we’re about to get a much firmer grasp on the 2025 college football landscape. Among other things, this weekend will deliver fresh windows into first-year quarterbacks at Georgia and Tennessee when the Bulldogs travel to Neyland Stadium. Elsewhere in the SEC, Florida visits No. 3 LSU with the pair of SEC rivals respectively shouldering very different but equally hefty stakes. Meanwhile, some of college football’s most surprising early-season storylines will continue to play out Saturday with No. 18 South Florida leading the charge as the surging Bulls venture south to No. 5 Miami.
Our college football experts give insight on key matchups in this weekend’s pair of high-profile SEC clashes, the programs that have surprised us so far and the top quotes of the past seven days entering Week 3. — Eli Lederman
Jump to:
Georgia-Tennessee | Florida-LSU
Teams that have surprised us | Quotes of the Week
What will Georgia and Tennessee need from their new starting QBs?
Georgia: Quarterback Gunner Stockton gets his first SEC road test at Tennessee on Saturday, and the Bulldogs will be looking for him to deliver more in the downfield passing game. Stockton played OK in Georgia’s first two wins over Marshall and FCS program Austin Peay, completing 69% of his pass attempts for 417 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. He also ran for two scores against the Thundering Herd. His legs weren’t much of a factor in last week’s closer-than-expected win against the Governors. Stockton has taken care of the football and hasn’t put the defense in bad situations, but Georgia needs more explosive plays on offense. He has attempted only 10 passes beyond 10 yards. Georgia went into the transfer portal to get USC’s Zachariah Branch and Texas A&M’s Noah Thomas, and Colbie Young is back after sitting out most of the 2024 season because of a suspension. Those playmakers have to be more involved on offense, along with tight ends Oscar Delp and Lawson Luckie. If Georgia is going to beat Tennessee for the ninth straight time, Stockton has to be more comfortable letting the ball fly, especially against a secondary that is missing starting cornerbacks Jermod McCoy (ACL) and Rickey Gibson III (arm) because of injuries.
Tennessee: The Volunteers couldn’t have asked for much more from transfer quarterback Joey Aguilar in their first two victories against Syracuse and FCS program East Tennessee State. The former App State starter completed 66.1% of his attempts for 535 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. He threw a 73-yard touchdown to Braylon Staley against the Orange and a 53-yarder to Mike Matthews against the Buccaneers. He might have to do even more against Georgia’s defense, which brings back promising safety KJ Bolden and cornerback Daylen Everette, a potential first-round pick in the 2026 NFL draft. The Bulldogs are going to try to stifle Tennessee’s running game and get after Aguilar in the pocket. Georgia coach Kirby Smart and defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann have had UT coach Josh Heupel’s number in recent seasons. The Bulldogs haven’t given up explosive plays, a trademark of Heupel’s system. In each of the past three losses to Georgia, the Volunteers’ high-flying offense failed to throw for 200 yards and didn’t have a passing touchdown. — Mark Schlabach
What do Florida and LSU need to capitalize on to win?
Florida: Aside from avoiding penalties, including spitting on a player? The Gators have to play with the emotion and intensity that comes with knowing their season is hanging in the balance after a shocking 18-16 loss to USF. They can do that by setting the tone on defense, which played well for stretches against the Bulls but then gave up 87 yards on eight plays on the final drive. LSU has struggled to run the ball through two games, and frustrations boiled over after a 23-7 win over Louisiana Tech, in which the Tigers averaged 3.8 yards per carry. In their win over LSU last year, Florida held the Tigers to 2.9 yards per carry. The good news for Florida is it won’t be facing a dual-threat quarterback like Byrum Brown. So if the Gators can limit the LSU backs, they will give themselves a shot. — Andrea Adelson
LSU: The Gators might be more desperate, but the Tigers should be plenty motivated after what happened in Gainesville last fall. LSU’s defense looks like the better of the two units and must cause more distress for DJ Lagway, who averaged 17.4 yards per completion in the 2024 win. The Tigers hurried Lagway nine times but never sacked him. They also let down in the fourth quarter with two touchdowns allowed. LSU’s upgrades on defense and playing at home, where coach Brian Kelly implored that the crowd needs to “live up to our résumé as the toughest place to play in the country,” must become outcome-swinging factors. Garrett Nussmeier is still the superior quarterback, and if LSU can get Caden Durham going — he had 95 rushing yards against Florida last season — the Tigers should prevail. — Adam Rittenberg
Five teams that have surprised us so far
South Florida: It would have been very easy to look at South Florida’s first two games of the season and have both of them — against Boise State and Florida — earmarked as likely losses. Instead, the Bulls went out and started 2-0, making a surprising early case as the best Group of 5 team. The win against Boise State was particularly impressive because of how lopsided it was (34-7). Boise State looked nothing like the team that reached the playoff last season (losing running back Ashton Jeanty, of course, played a significant role in that).
UCLA: After the Bruins finished the 2024 season winning four of their final six games, they brought in transfer quarterback Nico Iamaleava in the offseason. It was reasonable to be optimistic about the direction of the football program. Two games later, UCLA looks like an underdog in all nine of the Big Ten games on its schedule. The Bruins weren’t remotely competitive in their 43-10 loss to Utah, then fell behind 23-0 to UNLV before making it look more respectable in a 30-23 loss last week. Now, UCLA will have to brace for another season of playing in a more than half-empty Rose Bowl.
Kansas State: The only thing between the Wildcats and an 0-3 start, is a last-minute touchdown against FCS North Dakota. Their three-point losses to Iowa State and Army aren’t the end of the world, but this team was expected to compete for the Big 12 title (and still could, to be fair) and hasn’t yet looked the part. Against Army, quarterback Avery Johnson was limited to 172 yards passing and 14 yards rushing. That’s not a formula with which K-State can win.
Florida State: The roller coaster in Tallahassee has been a wild ride. In no other era of college football does it seem plausible for a team to win 19 games in a row, then lose 11 of 13 and then immediately jump back into the top 10. And yet this is the life the Seminoles have lived over the past few seasons. FSU was expected to be better this season, but its convincing win against Alabama in Week 1 might have been the most surprising result of the young season.
Mississippi State: After finishing 2-10 last season with a winless SEC campaign, the Bulldogs didn’t have much momentum. But after an upset of then-No. 12 Arizona State, perhaps this is a team that could be bowling at the end of the season. With games against Alcorn State and Northern Illinois the next two weeks, a 4-0 start seems likely before the gauntlet of conference play begins. — Kyle Bonagura
Quotes of the Week
“According to who? Arch said that to you?” Texas coach Steve Sarkisian responded to a question this week as speculation swirled over the health of Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning. “I’ve never filmed any of you guys when you’re using the bathroom, so I don’t know what faces you make when you’re doing that.”
“Who has one of those? What does that look like? What does a solidified quarterback look like? What does that look like? I want to know. We play quarterbacks every week. What does a solidified quarterback look like?” Colorado coach Deion Sanders said when asked if he had concerns around the absence of a “solidified quarterback” with third-string quarterback Ryan Staub expected to start ahead of veteran Kaidon Salter and freshman Julian Lewis in Week 3. “That could mean something’s up with your roster if it’s clear,” Sanders continued. “Then [when] that clear guy goes down, what’s up with the second one? I like where we are, man. I like what we have. I like what we’re playing with. I like these dice I’m shaking.”
“Just wanted to see if we could,” Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz said of the Tigers’ illegal free kick against Kansas in Week 2 that prompted the Big 12 to suspend the responsible officiating crew on Tuesday. “You know, it’s like asking your parents if you can do something that you know they probably shouldn’t let you do. But sometimes they get it wrong.”
“I love Darian to death,” Tulane coach Jon Sumrall said of Duke and former Green Wave quarterback Darian Mensah ahead of the Blue Devils’ Week 3 visit to Tulane. “I’ve said this publicly: if you play one snap, 100 snaps, 1,000 snaps for me, I’ll love you for the rest of my life. I care about him, wish him well, saw him this summer — I’ve got nothing but love for Darian.”
“I’ve talked to many that believe across the country this is the progress we need to make,” LSU’s Brian Kelly said of Ohio State Buckeyes coach Ryan Day’s response to proposed transfer portal changes. “I want to get my roster set. Now, I know there’s probably 12 or 16 teams that might be in the playoffs at that time. I’m sorry, there’s no crying on the yacht. I mean, we got to get this thing set and its best position at this time to allow us to set our rosters moving forward.”
-
Pamela Maldonado
Week 3 of college football season is here, and the board is spicy. Lines are shifting, narratives are forming, and a few teams are still getting priced like their old selves.
I’ve circled my spots, run the numbers, and this week’s card has a mix of edges I feel good about — the kind where matchup meets value. Week 3 feels like college football’s version of speed dating because some teams look amazing at home, others look lost on the road, FCS opponents are muddying the waters, and we’re still figuring out who’s the real deal and who’s just catfishing us.
No spoilers yet, but let’s just say a couple of teams are about to get tested, and I’m betting the market hasn’t caught up.
All odds by ESPN BET
Bet to make: Georgia Tech +3.5
The market is still pricing 2022 Clemson instead of what we’ve seen on the field. It’s early. I know. However, I have doubts.
Clemson has struggled to find rhythm offensively. Cade Klubnik has talent — I thought Heisman talent — but this group is outside the top 90 in offensive efficiency and is converting just 31% of third downs. That’s like trying to win a chess match when you keep losing your queen early.
The biggest mismatch here is explosiveness. Georgia Tech is top 30 in both passing and rushing EPA, while Clemson sits outside the top 80 in both. The mismatch matters because the Yellow Jackets don’t need 12 plays to find the end zone, while Clemson often does. In a game projected to be tight, the team that can create quick-strike touchdowns or flip field position in one play has the edge, and right now that’s Georgia Tech.
Through two games, GT’s rushing offense has been one of the most efficient in the country. It ranks second in rushing yards, averaging over seven yards per carry, with four different players already ripping off runs of 27 yards or longer, including quarterback Haynes King.
That rushing strength will be tested, and King’s injury status is something to keep an eye on, but he is expected to play. He’s a quarterback who forces you to defend every blade of grass.
I look back to late last season and think of this as it déjà vu for Clemson’s defense. They saw this exact movie last season with South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers (166 rushing yards). King has a very similar skill set, except GT’s overall offense is more explosive.
Grab the points. The Yellow Jackets have the sting to pull off the upset.
Bet to make: Oregon -27.5 and Northwestern UNDER 10.5
Oregon is beating up on opponents they’re supposed to, winning by a combined score of 128-16 while averaging 10.2 yards per play. The offense has been balanced and explosive, led by Dante Moore‘s efficiency and a backfield that’s averaging 8.4 yards per carry.
Now they face a Northwestern defense ranked 122nd in EPA per rush allowed, the same group Tulane gashed for 269 rushing yards in Week 1. This sets up as a trench mismatch, and Oregon has the speed and depth to exploit it.
Northwestern’s secondary is solid, but that was against Western Illinois, and even still, Oregon’s run game is the hammer and Northwestern’s front is the nail. The Ducks also are second in yards gained, meaning they are finishing drives at an elite rate. This is one of those matchups where Oregon can control the script, lean on their ground game and force Northwestern to play catch-up with an offense that lacks any weapons to contend.
Betting against this Oregon offense right now (against soft opponents) feels risky. Now, both of the Ducks games were at home, but I see this unit translating on the road, too, in the right context. I’m not at all ready to call them championship ready, but beating up on the little guys? Yes.
Also worth considering: Northwestern team total UNDER 9.5 points (+105)
Oregon’s defense has allowed only two red zone trips. The Wildcats are averaging only 4.5 yards per pass with five turnovers in two games. Oregon’s defense isn’t flashy, but it forces long drives and eliminates explosive plays, allowing just three gains of 20+ yards so far.
Northwestern will need to string together 10-play drives against a top defense that collapses early downs and limits red-zone access. The Ducks might clip the Wildcats’ whiskers and leave Evanston with a shutout.
Bet to make: New Mexico +15.5
We need to stop pretending UCLA has shown us anything that warrants laying more than two touchdowns.
UCLA’s defense has been a problem, giving up a third-down conversion rate of 70%, fourth worst in the country. That means opponents stay on the field, bleed clock and keep games close.
New Mexico is 130th in rushing yards, but that raw number doesn’t tell the whole story when you look at context. Week 1 was at Michigan, one of the best defensive fronts in the country and Scottre Humphrey had just 10 carries for 33 yards which tanked their early rushing stats.
But in Week 2 against Idaho State, we finally saw the real picture: 18 carries, 141 yards, 7.8 YPC and a 61-yard burst, which is not atypical for Humphrey. In fact, he had nine 100-yard rushing games last year.
So is it enough to buy into New Mexico’s ground game here? Against UCLA, yes. UCLA’s run defense is dead last in success rate allowed and just got gashed for 286 rushing yards by Utah and 148 more by UNLV.
This matchup actually tilts toward Humphrey being a real factor again.
The key is game script. If UCLA jumps ahead by multiple scores early, Humphrey gets neutralized, forcing Jack Layne into obvious passing downs, which is not their strength. But if New Mexico can stay within one score into the second half, Humphrey is the player who keeps them competitive.
This isn’t a volume stat issue, it’s a matchup issue, and against UCLA the door is open. Continue fading the Bruins.
-
Bradford Doolittle
Just as baseball’s postseason chase has entered the stretch run, those vying for individual honors are running out of time to make their cases.
This is our fourth and final Awards Watch of the regular season, and with that in mind, we’ve changed up our usual format to narrow the focus of each race to the leading contenders in each category.
What races are all but decided? Which ones remain very much up in the air? Let’s dig in.
Most Valuable Player
American League
Leading contenders: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (153 AXE) vs. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (144)
Next eight: 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (142); 4. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (135); 5. Julio Rodriguez, Mariners (132); 6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays (131); 7. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (130); 8. Corey Seager, Texas Rangers (129); 9. (tie) Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros, Cody Bellinger, Yankees, Maikel Garcia, Royals (128)
ESPN BET top two: Judge (-350, 78% chance of winning), Raleigh (+200)
Sizing up the race: This race is closer than AXE and the odds suggest. In fact, it would not surprise me if they are wrong altogether. Either way, the chase isn’t over.
It shouldn’t be controversial to suggest that Judge has had the better offensive season despite Raleigh’s historic home run pace and league-leading RBI total. His percentages are decidedly better across the board, and even if you contextualize for playing venue, Judge has a 40-point edge in OPS+ and, at FanGraphs, a 37-point bulge in wRC+. Raleigh has played in more games, but Judge has still created 31 more runs while using 68 fewer outs. Judge also leads AL hitters in both win probability added and championship probability added. Raleigh ranks fifth in both stats, which are folded into the AXE calculations.
After that, a number of factors tilt toward Raleigh. As a catcher, Raleigh plays a more valuable defensive position and has played it very well. FanGraphs ranks him as the fourth-most valuable defender in the AL. Of course, a chunk of that is due to pitch-framing metrics, which are measured differently at Baseball Reference, which is why Judge has a more commanding lead in that site’s version of WAR.
Then we come to factors of narrative. Raleigh might be having the best season a catcher has ever had. He already has crushed the single-season record for home runs by a backstop and is on the cusp of passing the record for switch-hitters set 64 years ago by Mickey-freaking-Mantle. If that happens, and if Raleigh gets to 60 homers — as a catcher — and does so on a playoff team, how does he not win MVP?
How it can flip: Raleigh has hit .208 since the All-Star break, and as his season average slips downward, soon to drop under .240, you do wonder if he’s vulnerable to an end-of-season crash. He is a catcher after all, and as much as the Mariners try to give him DH days to take the load off, he might be wearing down. If he flails from here and the Mariners miss the playoffs, a typical finish from Judge might be enough to convince voters their heads should never have turned toward Raleigh in the first place.
Prediction: Raleigh breaks Mantle’s record, doesn’t reach 60 homers, but keeps his numbers just strong enough to fend off Judge at the finish line.
National League
Leading contenders: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (152 AXE) vs. Juan Soto, New York Mets (140)
Next eight: 3. Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies (138); 4. (tie) Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs, Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres, Geraldo Perdomo, Arizona Diamondbacks (135); 7. (tie) Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks, Francisco Lindor, Mets (132); 9. Kyle Tucker, Cubs (131); 10. (tie) Will Smith, Dodgers, Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks, Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers, Nico Hoerner, Cubs, Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (127)
ESPN BET top two: Ohtani (-25000, 99.6% chance of winning), Schwarber (+2500)
Sizing up the race: Ohtani seems to have a stranglehold on this one, especially since the betting markets favor Schwarber as his leading challenger. Nothing against Schwarber, who is having an epic season, but the metrics don’t support that at all.
Although the leaderboard happily stretches down to Schwarber’s spot because of ties, you can see that it’s basically Ohtani and everybody else. He combines Schwarber’s power in the slugging and homer categories with virtually all of Soto’s on-base mastery. Soto is having a shockingly prolific season in the steals category, but given that Ohtani has lapped the field in runs scored, he still wins the baserunning part of the race. And, oh yeah, Ohtani tacks on 36 innings of excellent pitching (2.17 FIP), giving him plenty of defensive value as opposed to the negative fielding metrics of both Soto and Schwarber, primarily a DH.
On the contextual side, Ohtani leads the NL in win probability added and championship probability added. Soto is second in both categories, and Schwarber is out of the top 10. Again: Advantage Shohei.
How it can flip: Ohtani appears to have his fourth MVP trophy — and third straight — all but in the bag. Only Barry Bonds (seven) has won more often. And only Bonds, who won each season from 2001 to 2004, has won three seasons in a row. As for the others, of all the names on the leaderboard, Turner had been the hottest of late, but his quest to land at No. 2 by season’s end has been quashed by his hamstring injury.
Prediction: Ohtani in a landslide.
Cy Young
American League
Leading contenders: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (146 AXE) vs. Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox (139)
Next eight: 3. Hunter Brown, Astros (135); 4. Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers (128); 5. Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles (127); 6. (tie) Framber Valdez, Astros, Joe Ryan, Twins (125); 8. (tie) Max Fried, Yankees, Aroldis Chapman, Red Sox (123); 10. (tie) Michael Wacha, Royals, Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays (122)
ESPN BET top two: Skubal (-4000, 97.6% chance of winning), Crochet (+1600)
Sizing up the race: This race remains alive, according to AXE, though Skubal has the edge in all of the bottom-line metrics. The betting markets are a little more emphatic, and those reflect an anticipation of how things will play out from here.
Both ace lefties have seemingly picked up momentum as the season has progressed. Over the past month, Crochet is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA and a ridiculous K-to-BB ratio of 40-to-2 over 33 innings. And yet he has gained no ground on Skubal, who is 2-1 with a 1.04 ERA over the same time frame with a more human 35-to-7 ratio.
The two leading versions of WAR can be maddeningly inconsistent on the pitching side, but both systems give Skubal more than a full-win advantage over Crochet. Crochet does hold a narrow advantage in win probability added, but Skubal tops the AL in championship probability added.
How it can flip: The race is clearly Skubal’s to lose, but he needs to keep doing what he’s doing, because the margins are close enough for Crochet to overtake him. For both hurlers, every start from here on out is crucial.
Prediction: Skubal should hold on, if only because he has shown zero evidence of slowing down his epic pace. Unless Skubal struggles, there seems to be no opening for Crochet to squeeze through, no matter how well he pitches.
National League
Leading contenders: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (142 AXE) vs. Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies (142)
Next eight: 3. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (131); 4. (tie) Freddy Peralta, Brewers, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (129); 6. (tie) Nick Pivetta, Padres, Ranger Suarez, Phillies (128); 8. Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds (126); 9. Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (125); 10. (tie) Jesus Luzardo, Phillies, Nick Lodolo, Reds (123)
ESPN BET top two: Skenes (-20000, 99.5% chance of winning), Sanchez (+1600)
Sizing up the race: The betting markets see Skenes as having an almost Ohtani-like grip on this race. The metrics see it as a dead heat. I tend to think the latter is closer to true than the former, but the markets are typically a reliable indicator.
Both versions of WAR give Skenes a narrow edge over Sanchez. However, the systems are really confusing when stacked up against each other, with both favorites showing around a full win more value at Baseball Reference than at FanGraphs. That’s nothing to Peralta, the hottest pitcher on the list when compared with our past Awards Watch, whose Baseball Reference WAR is two wins higher than at FanGraphs. This is a prime example of how frustrating the disparities between the systems can be when, after all, they profess to measure the same thing, using the same framework, under precisely the same “wins above replacement” label.
Skenes has an edge in win probability added over Sanchez, who ranks third (San Diego reliever Adrian Morejon is second). But since Skenes toils for a last-place team, Sanchez’s league-leading championship probability added total leaves Skenes (ranked 51st in the NL) in the dust.
It isn’t Skenes’ fault that his team stinks, but it’s precisely why I included championship probability in the calculation. It’s designed to be more of a tiebreaker than anything. If the overall value produced by two players is similar, it seems logical to consider the contexts in which they put up that value.
So, are the overall performances close? Yes, very. Skenes’ sub-2.00 ERA is eye-catching and is likely the number that tags him as the favorite. But his edge in FIP (2.42 to 2.59) is narrow, which explains why he and Sanchez are close in WAR. Their volumes are similar.
How it can flip: It’s a tough call, and if both pitchers should falter down the stretch, Peralta still has a chance to sneak in. But they’d have to struggle because volume (i.e., innings pitched) is a huge factor in today’s pitching environment. Skenes and Sanchez have separated themselves in terms of combining quantity and quality.
Prediction: We probably shouldn’t overthink it. Skenes is the NL’s best pitcher, which isn’t always the same thing as “most deserving Cy Young candidate,” but in this case the two descriptions line up well. The Pirates haven’t backed Skenes off his usual workload, so if he makes the rest of his starts and keeps that ERA under 2.00, Sanchez faces an uphill battle.
Rookie of the Year
American League
Leading contenders: Nick Kurtz, Athletics (127 AXE) vs. Roman Anthony, Red Sox (117)
Next eight: 3. Jacob Wilson, Athletics (116); 4. (tie) Noah Cameron, Royals, Carlos Narvaez, Red Sox (113); 6. Colson Montgomery, Chicago White Sox (111); 7. Kyle Teel, White Sox (109); 8. Luke Keaschall, Twins (108); 9. Mike Vasil, White Sox (107); 10. (tie) Jack Leiter, Rangers, Will Warren, Yankees, Shane Smith, White Sox
ESPN BET top two: Kurtz (-50000, 99.8% chance of winning), Anthony (+4000)
Sizing up the race: Anthony is listed above as a leading contender for display purposes only, because this race is over. Kurtz was a heavy favorite already, but the oblique injury that is expected to sideline Anthony for the rest of the regular season sealed the deal. As Klingon Commander Kor said to Captain James T. Kirk, “It would have been glorious.”
You can’t really win a season award in baseball because of one game. But in Kurtz’s case, his four-homer game against Houston on July 25, in which he had six hits, scored six runs and tied the single-game total base record, comes pretty close. At the very least, it puts his name at the forefront in the minds of voters looking at this season’s rookie class.
At this point, Kurtz’s race is against history. His 1.021 OPS ranks as the fifth best among AL or NL rookies since 1900. The list is topped by Judge’s 1.049 in 2017. Kurtz would have to get blistering hot from here, but it’s not impossible. In terms of OPS+, Kurtz’s 177 currently tops them all, with Jose Abreu‘s 173 in 2014 the current end-of-season mark.
You can do this all day, but just a little more: Kurtz’s per-162-game line is currently .301/.397/.624 with 47 homers, 118 RBIs and 123 runs. The dude is 22 years old.
How it can flip: The universe is a complex, unpredictable thing, but at the moment, it’s hard to see any scenario that doesn’t end with Kurtz becoming the Athletics’ ninth Rookie of the Year and first since Andrew Bailey in 2009.
Prediction: Kurtz in a unanimous vote.
National League
Leading contenders: Isaac Collins, Brewers (115 AXE) vs. Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves (113)
Next eight: 3. Caleb Durbin, Brewers (111); 4. (tie) Cade Horton, Cubs, Jakob Marsee, Miami Marlins (110); 6. Chad Patrick, Brewers (109); 7. (tie) Braxton Ashcraft, Pirates, Matt Shaw, Cubs, Jack Dreyer, Dodgers (107); 10. (tie) Hurston Waldrep, Braves, Nolan McLean, Mets (106)
ESPN BET top three: Horton (-115, 54% chance of winning), Baldwin (+125), Collins (+600)
Sizing up the race: The markets recently bumped Horton up into favorite’s status but don’t seem to be very convicted about it. The markets aren’t wrong; this race has been a hodgepodge all season. Last time, I drolly suggested the award just go to the Milwaukee Brewers. It’s not entirely a joke. I track team WAR from rookies using a consensus between Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. Here’s the leaderboard:
1. White Sox (11.55 rookie WAR)
2. Brewers (7.61)
3. Red Sox (5.65)
4. Athletics (5.50)
5. Braves (4.11)
The White Sox have wisely gone all-in with deploying rookies in this rebuilding season, but the Brewers are the best team in baseball. Three Brewers rookies are in the above top 10, and the electric Jacob Misiorowski isn’t far off the pace. (Incidentally, on a recent trip to Milwaukee, I learned that Misiorowski’s family dog is named after Kevin Bacon, which merits extra credit.)
All of this is to avoid the topic at hand, because I really don’t know who should win this race. But I do think that Collins, as the leading representative of the NL’s top rookie class, is deserving for now. But now is a fleeting concept, and Horton is the hottest two-times-through-the-order pitcher on the planet.
Also, you’ll notice that McLean’s 4-1, 1.42 ERA start to his career has already pushed him into the top 10. He probably can’t win?
How it can flip: The markets have picked up on how hot Horton is, and if all current trends continue (which they of course will not), he’ll probably win. Over his past nine outings, Horton is 6-1 with a 0.77 ERA.
Prediction: Horton has allowed less than a run every other start since the All-Star break. If he maintains anything close to that pace, he’ll win. Otherwise, give it to a Brewer.
Manager of the Year
American League
Leading contenders: A.J. Hinch, Tigers (108.3 EARL) vs. John Schneider, Blue Jays (107.8)
Next three: 3. Joe Espada, Astros (107.0); 4. Ray Montgomery/Ron Washington, Los Angeles Angels (106.3); 5. Stephen Vogt, Guardians (105.2)
Sizing up the race: ESPN BET doesn’t help us with the manager races, but these standings make sense. It truly feels like a coin flip between Hinch and Schneider at this point.
How it can flip: EARL gives Hinch the razor-thin edge, but it probably comes down to which team lands the top overall seed in the AL bracket. Thus, the end of the season will determine this race. For what it’s worth, Hinch’s club has a hammerlock on the AL Central title, while Schneider’s Blue Jays have plenty of work to do in holding off the Yankees and Red Sox.
Prediction: Hinch’s Tigers will land that top seed and give him the leg up in the awards balloting. It would be his first Manager of the Year Award after five previous top-five finishes in the balloting.
National League
Leading contenders: Pat Murphy, Brewers (113.7 EARL) vs. Clayton McCullough, Marlins (106.9)
Next three: 3. Oliver Marmol, St. Louis Cardinals (106.1); 4. Rob Thomson, Phillies (103.9); 5. Craig Counsell, Cubs (103.4)
Sizing up the race: Murphy is going to win his second straight NL Manager of the Year Award. Everything works in his favor. The Brewers have thumped their preseason projections and are likely to enter the playoffs as the top overall seed. They are 26-17 in one-run games. They have all those rookies. And they play a team-oriented style built on contributions from a number of unsung role players.
Among the others, Counsell is most likely to finish second. McCullough has a tiny edge by EARL, but the Marlins’ recent pitching collapse has his trajectory arrow pointed downward.
How it can flip: The only way for this outlook to change is a Brewers collapse paired with an epic Cubs finish that allows Chicago to overcome its huge NL Central deficit and win the division. Otherwise, Murphy will once again outshine the guy he coached at Notre Dame and with whom he later worked as the bench coach in Milwaukee.
Prediction: A Murph runaway.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports2 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment11 months agoHere are the best electric bikes you can buy at every price level in October 2024