Sign my jersey! Everyone wants a Clayton Kershaw souvenir — including his opponents
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Alden Gonzalez
LOS ANGELES — It was the middle of June, the San Diego Padres were in town for what promised to be a heated series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, and Joe Musgrove, their injured ace, had one thing on his mind:
Securing a signed Clayton Kershaw jersey.
Major league players often send each other jerseys for personalization, to commemorate friendship or admiration or even milestones. But Musgrove had done that only a handful of times in his nine years as a major leaguer — all for former teammates he was once close with, never for a prominent member of the Padres’ biggest rival.
“This is the first that I’ve sent one over in admiration for what someone has done for the game,” said Musgrove, who grew up a Padres fan before ultimately pitching for the club. “I know he’s flooded with them now, and it might seem like a lot, but he’s made a big impact on this game — not only as a player, but for the way he handles himself.”
Kershaw will make his final regular-season start at Dodger Stadium on Friday, in what we now know will be one of the last appearances of his career. But even before the news of his impending retirement became official Thursday, the likelihood of it was high enough for Major League Baseball to extend him a special invitation to this year’s All-Star Game. And for a number of opposing players to seek opportunities to pay respect in their own way, whether it’s offering praise, expressing gratitude or, often, seeking autographs.
Kershaw, 37, has noticed that jersey requests have “slightly increased from years past” but stressed it’s “nothing crazy.” Sometimes a home series will go by and nobody will ask. Others, he’ll be flooded with them. “It’s like they all talk,” Kershaw said. He signs them all, either by listing his accomplishments — 3X NL Cy Young, 2014 NL MVP, 2X WS Champ! as he wrote on one for Colorado Rockies starter Kyle Freeland — or scribbling a brief message. In his mind, it wasn’t long ago that he was on the other side.
“It’s amazing how fast that flips, you know?” Kershaw told ESPN last week. “You don’t think that you’re the old guy until it happens, and then you are. It happens fast.”
WHEN KERSHAW SIGNED his fourth consecutive one-year contract with the Dodgers in March, he was considered a luxury. Blake Snell and Roki Sasaki had already been added. Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow were coming back healthy. Shohei Ohtani was on track to return as a two-way player. The likes of Emmet Sheehan, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May were next in line.
But when Kershaw rejoined the rotation in the middle of May, in the wake of offseason knee and toe surgeries, he helped stabilize a staff that had once again absorbed an avalanche of injuries. In August, as the Dodgers’ rotation began to round into form, he found another level, winning all five of his starts while posting a 1.88 ERA. Kershaw is throwing the slowest fastball of his career, offsetting it with a slider that oftentimes lacks its traditional bite and resorting to more inventiveness than ever, even with the occasional eephus pitch. And yet his record is 10-2 and his ERA is 3.53.
“He’s making jokes about how he’s only throwing 86, 87 — and he’s still getting outs,” San Francisco Giants starter Logan Webb said. “To me that’s the most impressive thing.”
Webb was a 12-year-old in Northern California when Kershaw made his major league debut. His high school years coincided with a four-year stretch from 2011 to 2014 that saw Kershaw claim three Cy Young Awards and an MVP, accumulate 72 regular-season victories, tally 895⅓ innings and establish himself as one of the greatest of his era. Competing against him, as a fellow frontline starter on a division rival, hasn’t taken any of the shine away.
Said Webb: “He seems to amaze me every single time.”
Two months ago, Webb shared an All-Star team with Kershaw for the first time and was adamant about securing a jersey from him, even though, he said, “I usually feel awful asking guys.” On Friday, Webb will watch from the opposite dugout as Kershaw makes what might be the final Dodger Stadium appearance of his career, depending on how he factors into L.A.’s October plans.
The Dodgers boast a six-man rotation at the moment, and two of those members, Yamamoto and Snell, are basically guaranteed to start in a best-of-three wild-card series. The third spot would go to Ohtani, unless the Dodgers surprise outsiders by deploying him as a reliever. Then there’s Glasnow, who was lavished with a $130 million-plus extension to take down important starts, and Sheehan, a promising right-hander who has been effective out of the bullpen.
Kershaw wasn’t healthy enough to contribute to last year’s championship run and wants nothing more than to help with this one. But he’s also realistic.
“We’ll see,” Kershaw said. “We’ll see what happens. My job is just to pitch well. Whatever decision they make, or if I get to make a start or do whatever — they’re going to make the best decision for the team. I’ll understand either way. Obviously making it hard for them is what I want to do.”
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts doesn’t know what role Kershaw might play on a postseason roster, but he said “there’s a place for him” on it.
“The bottom line is I trust him,” Roberts said. “And for me, the postseason is about players you trust.”
ANDREW ABBOTT SAT alongside Cincinnati Reds teammate Chase Burns in Dodger Stadium’s first-base dugout on Aug. 26 and couldn’t understand what he was seeing.
“Is that a changeup?” he asked.
Kershaw famously doesn’t throw many changeups, largely because he has never been confident in his ability to do so. But suddenly Abbott was watching him uncork a pitch that traveled in the low 80s and faded away from opposing right-handed hitters, the continuation of a split-change he began to incorporate a couple years ago. To Abbott, it spoke to the ingenuity that has extended Kershaw’s effectiveness.
“He knows what he’s doing,” Abbott said. “He can just figure things out on the fly.”
The Reds’ third-year starting pitcher had shared a clubhouse with Kershaw for the first time during the All-Star Game in Atlanta this summer. He wanted so badly to pick his brain about pitch sequencing, but he also didn’t want to waste Kershaw’s time; he made small talk about their Dallas ties and left it at that.
Six weeks later, when the Reds visited Dodger Stadium, Abbott made it a point to provide a visiting clubhouse attendant with a Kershaw jersey to be sent to the other side for a signature. He already had one of Christian Yelich, who represented his first strikeout; Edwin Diaz, the brother of his former teammate, Alexis; Joey Votto, a Reds legend; and Aaron Judge, arguably the best hitter on the planet. Abbott initially didn’t want to bother Kershaw, worried that he might just be adding to an overwhelming pile, but he couldn’t run the risk of missing what might be his final opportunity.
“I watched Kersh since I was a kid,” Abbott said. “I mean, I was 9 when he debuted. I just like to have guys that I’ve watched and I’ve kind of idolized. Those are the ones I go after. It’s cool that you’re in the job with him, too.”
After spending the past four years pitching for two of their biggest rivals — first the Padres, then the Giants — Snell signed a five-year, $182 million contract with the Dodgers over the offseason and told president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman that he wanted his locker next to Kershaw’s. Snell’s locker neighbored Kershaw’s in spring training, and he now resides just two lockers down inside Dodger Stadium’s newly renovated home clubhouse.
As a fellow left-hander, Snell has tried to soak up as much as he can from watching Kershaw, specifically how he utilizes his slider. He has learned, though, that a lot of his success is driven by his mindset.
“He never gives in,” Snell said. “He’s a competitor. And you can’t, like, train that or teach that. You either have it or you don’t. And he’s very elite at competing. The game comes, and he’s the best version of himself.”
Snell arrived in the major leagues as a 23-year-old former first-round pick. But he did not believe he would stay very long, so he made it a point to gather as many personalized jerseys as he could. He already has two framed Kershaw jerseys hanging on an office wall littered with other sports memorabilia, but the end of his first year with the Dodgers has left him wondering if he has enough.
Said Snell: “I might get me another one.”
TO THOSE WHO have observed Kershaw throughout his career, the thought that he would even allow himself to be mic’d up while pitching in a game — let alone revel in it — stood as a clear indication that this would probably be it. Roberts, who managed the National League All-Stars earlier this summer, noticed a more reflective, appreciative side to Kershaw even before he took the mound for his 11th Midsummer Classic.
Roberts noticed it when Kershaw addressed his NL teammates before the game, reminding them this was an opportunity to honor those who got them there. He noticed it 13 days before that, on the night of July 2, when Kershaw finished a six-inning outing with the 3,000th strikeout of his career and spilled onto the field to acknowledge the fans. Most of all, he’s noticed it through the ease with which Kershaw seems to carry himself this season. “The edges,” Roberts said, “aren’t as hard anymore.”
“He knows he’s had a tremendous career, and I think that now he’s making it a point. He’s being intentional about taking in every moment.”
Kershaw allowed himself to savor his 3,000th strikeout — a milestone only 19 other pitchers have reached — and made a conscious effort to take in every moment at this year’s All-Star Game. His wife, Ellen, and their four children have made it a point to travel for every one of his starts this season, even when Texas schools re-started earlier this month, adding a layer of sentimentality to the stretch run of his season.
But for as much as Kershaw would like to soak in every inning remaining in his major league career, he can’t. The season keeps going, the stakes keep ratcheting up, and Kershaw believes in the link between dismissing success and maintaining an edge. “The minute you savor, the minute you think about success, you’re content,” he said. But that also means he can’t truly enjoy the end.
There’s a cruelty in that.
“Yeah,” Kershaw said, “but that’s OK. Because you want to go out competing, just like you always did. At the end of the day, being healthy, being able to compete and pitch well, being on a great team — that’s all you can ask for. If you do all of the other stuff, you become content or satisfied or whatever it is. Then it’s all downhill.”
ESPN’s Jesse Rogers contributed to this report.
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Greg Wyshynski
The Nashville Predators disagreed that a “weird” Minnesota Wild overtime goal scored with the net displaced Tuesday night should have counted.
Wild forward Kirill Kaprizov sent a pass across the crease to teammate Marcus Johansson just as Predators goalie Justus Annunen pushed the net off its moorings. Johansson’s shot hit the side of the net as the cage continued to slide out of place. He collected the puck and then backhanded it over the goal line and off the end boards with the net dislodged.
The referee signaled a goal at 3:38 of overtime, and it was upheld after an NHL video review. Minnesota won, 3-2, overcoming an emotional letdown when Nashville’s Steven Stamkos tied the score with just 0.3 seconds left in regulation.
“The explanation was that, in [the referee’s] opinion, it was a goal. I disagree with his opinion, but that’s the way it is,” Nashville coach Andrew Brunette said.
Stamkos wasn’t pleased with the goal call after the game.
“Obviously, a weird play. I can see the confusion, but the confusing part for us was why it was so emphatically called [a goal]. I get it. Listen, the net came off. If the puck goes in right away, no problem if the net is off. But he missed the net, and the puck actually bounced back to him because the net was sideways,” he said.
The NHL’s Situation Room upheld the goal because it felt Annunen caused the net to be displaced prior to an “imminent scoring opportunity” by Johansson and cited Rule 63.7 as justification. The rule reads:
“In the event that the goal post is displaced, either deliberately or accidentally, by a defending player, prior to the puck crossing the goal line between the normal position of the goalposts, the Referee may award a goal. In order to award a goal in this situation, the goal post must have been displaced by the actions of a defending player, the attacking player must have an imminent scoring opportunity prior to the goal post being displaced, and it must be determined that the puck would have entered the net between the normal position of the goal posts.”
Stamkos didn’t believe that Johansson’s goal-scoring shot was only made possible by the net having come off its moorings.
“I understand the net came off. I don’t think there was any intent from our goaltender to knock it off — it came off twice today. From our vantage point, we thought the puck came back to him on the second attempt because the net was off. If not, the puck goes behind the net, and we live to fight another day. So, that’s where we didn’t agree with the call,” he said.
Brunette doesn’t believe his goalie intentionally pushed the net off its moorings.
“I don’t think just by the physics of pushing that’s what he was trying to do. I thought they missed the net. If the net didn’t dislodge, you would have ended up hitting the net,” he said.
“Unfortunately, they didn’t see it the same way. And you move on.”
This was the second win in a row for the Wild, moving them to 5-6-3 on the season. Nashville dropped to 5-6-4, losing its second straight overtime game.
“We deserved a lot better, for sure. One of our best games of the season, for sure,” Stamkos said.
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David Hale
The College Football Playoff committee has released its first top 25 ranking of the season, which is the sport’s version of Walmart opening its doors at midnight on Black Friday. Things are about to get ugly, and someone’s going to end up bloodied while fighting Oklahoma for a spot in the top 12. In other words, it’s the best time of year.
This year, the committee has said it is considering a new “record strength” metric, designed to provide some math-based guidance in the process and to soon replace “game control” as the country’s most hated made-up statistic.
Ten weeks into a season filled with a lot of chaos and few seemingly great teams, however, the committee needs all the help it can get. For example, just eight teams in the country have already beaten more than one of the committee’s current top 25 — and one of those eight teams is NC State. Utah, Iowa, Oregon, Pitt, Washington, Missouri and Tennessee — all ranked this week — are a combined 0-12 against other teams in the committee’s top 25. The ACC doesn’t have a team ranked higher than 14th, and the Group of 5 doesn’t have a team ranked at all, making these rankings less about the coveted top 12 than a need to be in the top 10.
In other words, there’s a lot still in flux as we dive deeper into the final month of the season. But that means our anger toward the committee is just simmering for now, waiting for the rage to boil over in the weeks to come.
Still, a few schools have a pretty good case for outrage already.
In all the hubbub over last year’s final playoff rankings that left a trio of SEC teams out, what went overlooked was that BYU might have had more to be angry about than Alabama, Ole Miss or South Carolina. Two of those teams, at least, had taken a bad loss. Each of those teams had three losses. BYU, on the other hand, checked in on the committee’s final ranking behind each of them despite a 10-2 record and two close losses to solid teams.
So, certainly the committee would feel some compassion for the Cougars this year and consider the Cougars with a bit more optimism, right?
Ah, no.
Let’s take a look at some blind résumés.
Team A: No. 3 strength of record, No. 33 strength of schedule, 4-0 vs. SP+ top-40 opponents, best win vs. No. 11 in the committee’s poll.
Team B: No. 4 strength of record, No. 45 strength of schedule, 3-0 vs. SP+ top-40 opponents, best win vs. No. 13 in the committee’s poll.
Sure, Team A has a slight edge, but the résumés look pretty similar.
Well, Team A is the committee’s No. 1 team, Ohio State. Surely, if another team’s résumé looks more or less the same, that team would be staring down a bye in the first round of the playoff, right?
Nope. Team B is BYU, and the Cougars sit behind three SEC teams with a loss, all three of which are ranked lower in ESPN’s strength of record metric.
Given that BYU has a massive showdown with Texas Tech upcoming, perhaps the committee just punted on any tough decisions on the Cougars for this week. After all, given how much love the committee has shown the Big Ten in these rankings, punting would be a fitting play.
We get it. As a conference, the ACC might, in fact, just be an episode of “Punk’d” that Ashton Kutcher started in 2008, then got distracted and forgot to let everyone know it was a prank. The conference’s train wreck in Week 10 certainly showed up in these rankings — more on that in a moment — but it’s almost as if the committee just threw Louisville into the mix, deciding the Cardinals were guilty by association.
Let’s take another look at some blind résumés, shall we?
Team A: No. 10 strength of record, No. 58 strength of schedule, one win vs. SP+ top 40, best win vs. committee’s No. 13 team, lone loss vs. an unranked team.
Team B: No. 13 strength of record, No. 56 strength of schedule, three wins vs. SP+ top 40, best win vs. committee’s No. 18 team, lone loss to committee’s No. 14 team.
This is basically a coin flip, though given the additional wins vs. high-level opponents and a better loss, it would be hard to argue against Team B, right? Add to that, Team B’s lone loss came in double overtime in a game when it outgained its opponent by 150 yards. Surely, you would be on Team B’s side now, right?
Well, not surprisingly, Team B is Louisville. Team A is Texas Tech, ranked seven spots higher at No. 8.
There seems to be a desire to write Miami off because of two losses in the past three games and given the strife the team seems to be enduring on offense, perhaps that’s wise.
But two things are supposed to be true of the committee’s evaluation process. One, the committee is not supposed to care when wins and losses happen. Losing in September isn’t better than losing in November. A loss is a loss. Second, the committee is not supposed to make assumptions about the future. Sure, Miami’s offense is a mess at the moment, but assuming that will result in future losses isn’t part of the deal.
And yet, putting Miami at No. 18 — eight full spots behind another two-loss team the Canes beat head-to-head — can only be explained by the vibes. Notre Dame’s season is rolling right along now. Miami has hit some stumbling blocks. Never mind the Canes are two late Carson Beck interceptions away from still being undefeated. Never mind that Miami has four wins vs. FPI top-35 teams, twice as many as any other two-loss team except Oklahoma. Never mind that Miami has that head-to-head against the No. 10 team in the committee’s rankings or that it walloped a Florida team that took No. 5 Georgia to the wire and actually beat No. 11 Texas. Never mind that Miami beat a then-ranked USF by 37.
Instead, the committee has assigned Miami to the scrap heap now — which is a shame because Miami would probably have done this to itself anyway, and it’s so much funnier when it happens in the last game of the season.
4. The Group of 5
A year ago, Boise State found its way into a first-round bye ahead of the champion of a Power 4 league, which was probably pretty embarrassing for that Power 4 league except that the ACC embarrasses itself often enough to be pretty well immune to shame.
The rules have changed this year. The top four conference champs aren’t guaranteed a first-round bye now. But that doesn’t seem to have stopped the committee from stacking the deck anyway, just to be safe.
Not one team outside the Power 4 found its way into these initial rankings, though the committee notes that Memphis currently is in the lead for the long Group of 5 playoff bid.
So, surely the Group of 5 should be pretty upset, right?
Yes, but not about being snubbed from the top-25 party. None of the leaders in the Group of 5 have a great case — certainly none like Boise State had a year ago. But Memphis? Really? The same team that lost by a touchdown to a UAB team had just fired its coach?
In the committee’s new guidance to consider record strength, there is an assumption that really bad losses are weighted heavily, but that certainly hasn’t been the case this time around.
North Texas has one loss to SP+ No. 27.
James Madison has one loss to SP+ No. 16 (and the No. 15 team in the committee’s rankings).
San Diego State has one loss to SP+ No. 73 has one loss to SP+ No. 119.
Memphis has one loss to SP+ No. 119.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see the Tigers weren’t punished at all for a terrible loss.
5. The SEC
The latter half of the committee’s top 25 is usually the equivalent of the phone lines for a Finebaum episode — just a place where a lot of mediocre SEC folks hang out, patiently waiting for their turn. But this time, the committee has stuffed the bottom of the rankings with Big Ten teams — No. 19 USC, No. 20 Iowa, No. 21 Michigan and No. 23 Washington — and that might actually matter in the long run.
One of the committee’s favored metrics is wins over ranked opponents. We’re dubious about how many Big Ten teams deserve a little number next to their name. The league still has four teams that have yet to win a conference game, and the bottom third is a complete dumpster fire. It’s easy to rack up some wins when half your conference schedule has already been embarrassed by UCLA’s interim coaching staff.
But the SEC — that’s where the real depth is. Nearly half the SEC’s conference games this season have been one-possession affairs. Mississippi State, a team that had gone nearly two years without an SEC win, already knocked off last year’s Big 12 champ. LSU, a team that fired its coach, has a win over last year’s ACC champ. Florida beat Texas. Putting a bunch of undeserving teams at the bottom of the rankings only serves to prop up the résumés of teams such as Oregon, which hasn’t beaten anyone of consequence. And frankly, the committee is supposed to do that for the SEC, not the Big Ten.
Also angry: Virginia Cavaliers (8-1, No. 14, behind four two-loss teams), USF Bulls (6-2, unranked), Arizona State Sun Devils (6-3, unranked), Cincinnati Bearcats (7-2, unranked), Brian Kelly (just angry for other reasons).
The ACC is already playing from behind, and it’s only the first ranking of the season. With no teams ranked in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s initial top 12 on Tuesday night, the lone ACC team in the bracket if it were released today would be No. 14 Virginia. The Cavaliers would earn a spot as the fourth-highest ranked conference champion.
As for No. 17 Georgia Tech and No. 18 Miami? Not even a head-to-head win against the No. 10-ranked Fighting Irish was enough to keep the Canes within playoff range after their loss at SMU.
It’s far from over, as teams still have ample opportunities to build — or bust — their résumés. Separation, though, is starting to occur, and the Bubble Watch is tracking it for you. Teams with Would be in status below are in this week’s bracket based on the committee ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated but have work to do. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they’d receive, ranked from the most to least, based on the selection committee’s first ranking on Tuesday night.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Last team in: Ole Miss. The Rebels are currently in a safe spot, but they’re not a lock if they don’t run the table. With remaining games against The Citadel, Florida and at rival Mississippi State, there’s no possibility of a “good loss” remaining, and historically, losing in November has been far more damaging to playoff hopes than losing early. Ole Miss shouldn’t lose; it’s favored in each of its remaining games by at least 72% and has the seventh-best chance in the country (55.4%) to win out. If an upset occurred, though, the Rebels would join the two-loss club and might not win a debate with other two-loss teams that had more statement wins — and didn’t lose to an unranked opponent. The Rebels’ remaining schedule strength is No. 56 in the country. With a second loss, Ole Miss would be banking on wins against Oklahoma, Tulane and LSU to impress the committee enough for an at-large bid.
First team out: Texas. The Longhorns got a significant boost this week in part because three teams above them fell out — Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech and Miami — but also because they earned another CFP top 25 win against the Commodores. The head-to-head win against Oklahoma could also help them in the committee meeting room. If Texas is ranked No. 11 or No. 12 by the committee, though, and the ACC and Group of 5 champions are outside of the committee’s top 12, then the Longhorns would be elbowed out during the seeding process to make room for the fourth- and fifth-highest ranked conference champions, which are guaranteed spots in the playoff.
Still in the mix: Missouri, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt. The Sooners earned a huge résumé boost with their win at No. 25 Tennessee and have a CFP top 25 win against Michigan. For two-loss Vandy, a close road loss to Texas isn’t an eliminator. Missouri’s lone losses were to Alabama and Vanderbilt, but the Tigers don’t have anything yet to compensate for it. That could change on Saturday with a win against Texas A&M.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Tennessee
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Last team in: Oregon. The one-loss Ducks have a more challenging second half of the season, and the committee is about to learn how good this team truly is. So far, Oregon’s best win was Sept. 13 at Northwestern. The Ducks have been passing the eye test, but their opponents have a winning percentage of 47.2% — ranked No. 116 in the country. The committee will still respect the double-overtime win at Penn State but also recognize the Nittany Lions weren’t playing at an elite level even with James Franklin on the sideline. With road trips to Iowa and Washington — both respectable two-loss teams — and a Nov. 22 home game against USC, Oregon has a chance to further entrench itself in the top 12 or tumble out.
First team out: USC. The Trojans’ two losses were on the road to respectable teams (Illinois and Notre Dame) by a combined 12 points. Their best win was Oct. 11 against Michigan, but the Trojans could really boost their résumé this month and completely flip the script with Oregon if they can win in Eugene on Nov. 22. According to ESPN Analytics, USC has the fourth-best chance in the Big Ten to reach the playoff (18%), just ahead of Michigan. The only game it’s not favored to win is Nov. 22 at Oregon. If the Trojans can pull off that upset for a 10-2 finish, though, the committee would definitely consider them for an at-large spot.
Still in the mix: Iowa, Michigan, Washington. All three of these teams were ranked by the committee on Tuesday night, but No. 20 Iowa has the shortest climb into the conversation and gets a chance for a marquee win when it hosts No. 9 Oregon on Saturday. Michigan still has a chance to run the table and impress the committee with a win against its No. 1 team, Ohio State, but the head-to-head loss to USC will be a problem in both the Big Ten standings and the CFP ranking. If USC loses again, though, and their records are no longer comparable, it can be overcome. Then there’s a head-to-head loss to Oklahoma. Still, Michigan has a 13.2% chance to reach the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
Out: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: BYU, Texas Tech
Last team in: Texas Tech. If Texas Tech loses to BYU on Saturday but still wins the Big 12, it’s a CFP lock. The problem is if the Red Raiders lose a second conference game, then they’re going to need some help to reach the Big 12 championship. So a loss to BYU could be devastating to their conference and CFP hopes. If the Red Raiders beat BYU on Saturday but lose to it in the Big 12 championship game, they would still have a chance at an at-large bid as the Big 12 runner-up. They would be able to claim a win over the eventual Big 12 champs, which would be a much-needed boost to their résumé. It would depend in part on how the game unfolded. The Cougars are the Red Raiders’ only remaining opponent with a winning record, as they end the season against UCF (4-4) and at West Virginia (3-6).
First team out: Utah. The No. 13 Utes are in a tricky spot because their two losses are to the Big 12’s best teams — BYU and Texas Tech. Utah still has the third-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game (22.2%) but will need some help to get there. Utah’s best wins are against Arizona State and Cincinnati, but it might have a hard time earning an at-large bid without being able to beat at least one of the best teams in its league. If there is some movement above the Utes, though, they could quickly earn a promotion given their place on the bubble after the first ranking.
Still in the mix: Cincinnati. They’re included here because they still have an 18% chance to reach the Big 12 title game, according to ESPN Analytics. The unranked Bearcats have only one league loss, which gives them some slim hope. Their other loss was in the season opener to Nebraska.
Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: Virginia
Last team in: Virginia. Like Georgia Tech, Virginia has a road loss to NC State as its lone blemish, but it was an early four-point loss compared with the Yellow Jackets’ double-digit defeat. Virginia also has a head-to-head win against Louisville. That’s the Hoos’ best win of the season and their only one against a CFP top 25 opponent. Virginia would still be in, though, if it wins the ACC even if it’s ranked outside the committee’s top 12 — just like three-loss Clemson was last year.
First team out: Louisville. The Cardinals lost at home in overtime to Virginia on Oct. 4 but earned a statement win Oct. 17 at Miami. Louisville will probably have only one win this season against a CFP top 25 team, which will make earning an at-large bid difficult. Louisville’s best shot would be to run the table, have teams above it lose, and win the ACC. Louisville has a 10.6% chance of winning the ACC, fourth best behind Georgia Tech, Miami and Virginia.
Still in the mix: Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, SMU. The odds of earning an at-large bid dropped significantly on Tuesday, but any team that has a chance to win its league will have a chance to lock up a playoff spot, and these teams are all still technically in contention to play for the ACC title. Virginia has the best chance to reach the ACC championship game (66.6%), followed by Georgia Tech (41.3%) and Louisville (33.8%), according to ESPN Analytics. Miami has only a 2.7% chance to reach the championship game — also behind Duke and SMU.
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. The playoff stars aligned for Notre Dame in Week 10, when Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech and Miami all lost, opening the door for the 6-2 Irish to move back into the top 10 after beating Boston College. The selection committee’s decision to render the head-to-head loss to Miami moot was critical for both teams. The group rewarded Notre Dame for its eye test and recent surge during a six-game winning streak. Notre Dame has the best chance of any team in the country to run the table (64.3%), but the Nov. 15 trip to Pitt will be difficult. The Panthers are playing well, have won five straight and have a bye week to prepare for the Irish. Notre Dame’s playoff position will remain tenuous until the clock runs out at Stanford and the Irish are 10-2.
Group of 5
Would be in: Memphis. As the projected winner of the American this week, Memphis would earn a playoff spot as the committee’s fifth-highest ranked conference champion. Memphis wasn’t ranked in the committee’s top 25, but the group continues to rank teams until a Group of 5 team is included and then publicizes which one it is without revealing the full ranking and which teams might have been ahead. The Oct. 25 win against South Florida was critical in the league race, but the loss to 3-5 UAB is an ink stain on the Tigers’ résumé that can be overcome with a conference title. Memphis has at least a 57% chance to win each of its remaining games, according to ESPN Analytics.
Still in the mix: USF, North Texas, James Madison, San Diego State. The committee would consider USF’s head-to-head wins against Boise State and North Texas.
Bracket
Based on the first committee ranking, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Alabama
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Virginia (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 BYU (Big 12 champ)
No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 Texas Tech
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 11 Virginia/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 BYU winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Oregon/No. 8 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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