Will as many people as last year come to Tory conference? I have a leak that helps explore this – and it reveals the party itself is expecting fewer.
Normally you don’t get any detailed breakdowns of conference data – who is coming and in what category.
But I’ve been shared an early cut of the numbers from this year. What you can see above is a screenshot of the data sent to the party board.
I am told this table is from 11 August and shows the then-current attendance figures which were sent to the Conservative Party board. They revealed numbers due to be coming to Manchester this week, lagging on last year.
You can see that at that stage, there are more than 1,000 fewer members due to come to conference than had been listed in early August 2024.
Image: Supporters at this year’s Tory party conference greet their leader Kemi Badenoch. Pic: PA
Indeed, the party’s target is markedly lower. There are also fewer Young Conservatives, though by a much smaller margin.
However, the number of commercial guests is up on last year, as is donors, known as ‘Treasurer’s Guests’, although the number planning to attend Business Day on Monday is down.
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I’m told the current number of members coming to Manchester is 3,500, although that is calculated on a different basis to these – and includes Young Conservatives.
Strength
Another source told me the number of members coming to conference – calculated on the above basis – is around 2,800 but it was not possible to verify that.
A Conservative spokesman said: “This out-of-date report does not reflect the strength of Conservative Party conference 2025.
“There are thousands of members – many new to the party – hundreds of businesses, and many other delegates attending to hear Kemi Badenoch‘s bold new vision for the country.
“This conference the Conservatives will demonstrate they are the only party that can be trusted to deliver a stronger economy and stronger borders for the country.”
In response to the leaked data, Reform UK posted on X, “The Conservative Party is finished.”
It follows the arrests of nearly 500 peopleduring demonstrations in support of the proscribed group Palestine Action in central London on Saturday.
Protesters defied calls to rethink the event in the wake of the Manchester synagogue terror attack on Thursday, in which two Jewish worshippers were killed.
The new powers will allow police forces to consider the “cumulative impact” of protests, assessing previous activity, when deciding to impose limits on protesters.
The limits that could be imposed include moving demonstrators to a different place or “restricting the time that those protests can occur”, Ms Mahmood said.
She added: “It’s been clear to me in conversations in the last couple of days that there is a gap in the law and there is an inconsistency of practice.
“So I’ll be taking measures immediately to put that right and I will be reviewing our wider protest legislation as well, to make sure the arrangements we have can meet the scale of the challenge that we face.”
Image: A demonstration supporting Palestine Action on Saturday in central London. Pic: Reuters
Image: Police officers detain a protester during the mass protest. Pic: Reuters
The changes will be made through amendments to the Public Order Act, and anyone who breaches the new conditions will risk arrest and prosecution.
‘More flexibility to prevent disruptive protests’
The home secretary has written to chief constables in England and Wales to explain the new powers.
She wrote: “The government will bring forward legislation to increase the powers available to you to tackle the repeated disruptive protests we have seen and continue to provide the reassurance to communities that they need.
“Through upcoming legislation, we will amend sections 12 and 14 of the Public Order Act 1986 to allow senior officers to consider the cumulative impact of protests on local communities when they are imposing conditions on public processions and assemblies.
“This will allow you more flexibility to prevent disruptive protests from attending the same location and instruct organisers to move to a different site.”
The Greens and the Lib Dems said it was an attack on the right to protest.
Green Party leader Zack Polanski told Sky News: “Giving police sweeping powers to shut down protests because of their ‘cumulative impact’ is a cynical assault on the right to dissent. The whole point of protest is persistence; that’s how change happens. Do you think the suffragettes protested once and then gave up?”
Lib Dem home affairs spokesman Max Wilkinson said this will “do nothing” to tackle antisemitism “while undermining the fundamental right to peaceful protest”.
Earlier, Ms Mahmood said the right to protest was a “fundamental freedom” but this must be balanced “with the freedom of their neighbours to live their lives without fear”.
In a statement she said: “Large, repeated protests can leave sections of our country, particularly religious communities, feeling unsafe, intimidated and scared to leave their homes.
“This has been particularly evident in relation to the considerable fear within the Jewish community, which has been expressed to me on many occasions in these recent difficult days.
“These changes mark an important step in ensuring we protect the right to protest while ensuring all feel safe in this country.”
Tories ‘will support’ measures
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said her party will “of course support” the new measures but asked why it took “so long” for them to be introduced.
Speaking to the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg, she claimed that what happened in Manchester was foreseeable and not enough has been done to address fears over safety in the Jewish community.
Ms Mahmood addressed the Jewish communities’ concerns after being shown a clip of deputy prime minister David Lammy being heckled at a vigil on Friday.
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Home secretary reacts to moment Lammy was heckled
She told Sky News’ Trevor Phillips the government “of course” hears their strength of feeling and is “committed to dealing with antisemitism in all of its forms”, pointing to the “strengthening” of police powers announced today.
Asked if the reaction to Mr Lammy reflected anger at the government’s decision to recognise a Palestine state, she said it was important not to “elide” Thursday’s attack with the situation in the Middle East.
“People are entitled to their views and of course we were there to hear those views. What I would say is that the attack that took place, the person that’s responsible for that attack is the attacker himself,” she said.
“And, of course, four other people are in custody and the police investigation does need to take its course. It’s important that we don’t elide that into the wider questions of what’s going on in the Middle East.”
A man who helped barricade the Manchester synagogue has described how the terror attack unfolded.
Alan Levy said he was in the car park in the grounds of Heaton Park Hebrew Congregation Synagogue in Crumpsall when the incident started and he saw the attacker, who he called a “jihadist monster”.
“I was there when he crashed his car into the synagogue gates and ran down the security guard that was there and attacked a volunteer security guard and tried to gain access into the synagogue,” Mr Levy said in an interview with Sky News’ people and politics correspondent Nick Martin.
It was then that Mr Levy ran into the synagogue and sought to lock it down.
He and other congregants helped barricade the doors to stop the attacker from getting inside, as “he was shoulder-charging the doors trying to get in”.
“He was throwing plant pots at the glass. He was using a knife to try and get in. These brave men basically saved the community from further harm,” Mr Levy said.
“All I was thinking was ‘we’ve got to keep these doors closed’.
“He was trying each door in turn. When we realised which door he was going to, we moved doors so there was more pressure on the doors to keep them closed.”
Image: Alan Levy, helped barricade the synagogue
Two people were killed in the attack on Thursday, including one who died from a police bulletfired as officers shot dead the perpetrator, Jihad al Shamie.
The victims were named as Adrian Daulby, 53, a member of the congregation, and Melvin Cravitz, 66, a worshipper at the synagogue.
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Who was the Manchester synagogue attacker?
Mr Levy’s son, Marc, described the moment he first received news of the attack and said “it’s impossible to articulate the worry and concern” as he didn’t know whether his family was safe or not.
“I first knew that there was an incident when my phone started lighting up repeatedly and I realised that there was an attack on my synagogue,” he said.
“It’s a place where all my childhood memories of worshipping… pretty much going there throughout my whole life.
“I knew at that time that my father would have been on security at that time, as he is every morning, given that him and his friends are some of the first people who arrive.”
He said it was only when he saw his father on Sky News’ live feed that he realised he wasn’t one of the victims.
Six people were arrested over the attack but two have been released without charge.
Police revealed the attacker had been on bail over a suspected rape, but wasn’t on the radar of counter-terror police.
The Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC) is investigating the shooting – this is standard practice when a member of the public is killed – and will examine “whether police may have caused or contributed to the death” of Mr Daulby.
Al Shamie, 35, was named as the attacker on Thursday and is believed to be of Syrian descent.
He is understood to have been granted British citizenship when he was around 16, having entered the UK as a young child.
Police shot him dead seven minutes after the first emergency call as they feared he was wearing an explosive device – later identified as a fake.
Police have been granted extra time to question four people who were arrested in connection with the terrorist attack on a synagogue in Manchester.
Three men remain in hospital after the car and knife attack at the Heaton Park Hebrew Congregation Synagogue on Thursday.
Jihad al Shamie, 35, who was on bail for an alleged rape, was shot by police as he launched the attack on Yom Kippur, the holiest day in the Jewish calendar.
Adrian Daulby, 53, is believed to have been shot dead by police while trying to stop al Shamie from entering the synagogue.
He died alongside Melvin Cravitz, 66, a worshipper who helped prevent the attacker from entering the place of worship.
Image: Pic: PA
Counter Terrorism Policing North West (CTPNW) is leading the police operation and has been granted warrants allowing them to detain four people who were arrested on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts for a further five days.
The warrants relate to two men, aged 30 and 32, and two women, aged 46 and 61.
Greater Manchester Police (GMP) said the investigation was “continuing at pace” with “significant resources” mobilised in order to “establish the full picture into what has happened”.
The force said three men remain in hospital with serious injuries, including a security guard with car-impact injuries and a Community Security Trust (CST) worker with stab wounds.
On Friday, the police watchdog, which is investigating the incident, said it was examining the use of lethal force by GMP firearms officers, including “whether police may have caused or contributed to the death” of Mr Daulby.
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2:46
Arrests at pro-Palestine protest
Nearly 500 arrested as pro-Palestine protest goes ahead despite pleas
It comes as 492 people were arrested over protests supporting the proscribed group Palestine Action in Trafalgar Square on Saturday.
The demonstration went ahead despite Sir Keir Starmer, other politicians and police bosses calling on organisers to reconsider.
The Board of Deputies of British Jews called for those who attended the demonstration arrested under the Terrorism Act to also be investigated for stirring up racial hatred.
The board is set to hold an event in the same location on Sunday afternoon to reflect on the two-year anniversary of the 7 October Hamas attack.
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Met Police call on pro-Palestine protesters
On Friday, the head of counter-terrorism policing, Laurence Taylor, said a “suspicious device” attached to al Shamie’s torso was fake and police believed he “may have been influenced by extreme Islamist ideology”.
He added: “Based on some fast-time assessments conducted on our systems, this individual does not appear to be known to counter-terrorism policing, however, he does have a non-CT (counter-terror) related criminal history.
“This includes a recent arrest for rape, which resulted in him being bailed.”