Everything you need for the 2022 MLB playoffs: Odds, strengths (and weaknesses) and how far all 12 teams will go
The 2022 MLB playoffs are here — and for the first time there are 12 teams battling for World Series glory.
With an extra round to begin the postseason and the possibility that this year’s Fall Classic extends to a Game 7 on Nov. 5, it will be a very short October stay for some — and quite possibly the latest championship celebration in MLB history for the last squad standing.
Will the favored Los Angeles Dodgers rule the National League or will the repeat-minded Braves make another deep run? Can anyone in the American League keep the New York Yankees and Houston Astros from squaring off in the ALCS? And which teams are most likely to see their runs end this weekend?
MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez and David Schoenfield get you ready for it all with everything from odds for every matchup and a predicted date of each team’s last game to the best- and worst-case scenario for all 12 World Series hopefuls. World Series and matchup odds come from Doolittle’s formula using power ratings as the basis for 10,000 simulations to determine the most likely outcomes.
Note: World Series and matchup odds come from Doolittle’s formula using power ratings as the basis for 10,000 simulations to determine the most likely outcomes.
Watch: Wild-card round, Friday-Sunday on ESPN & ABC | Bracket
Jump to a team:
TB | SEA | TOR | CLE | NYY | HOU
PHI | SD | STL | NYM | ATL | LAD
American League
Most likely to go home this weekend
No. 6 seed | 86-75 | AL wild card
Wild-card opponent: Guardians (45.5% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 1.9% | Caesars odds: +3000
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 9
How they could stay around longer: Yes, the Rays have a deep bullpen as always (check out the numbers for Jason Adam and Pete Fairbanks), but the starting pitching is much better than you might realize. Shane McClanahan was a Cy Young candidate for three-fourths of the season, Drew Rasmussen has been consistent all season and Jeffrey Springs turned overnight from a mediocre reliever into a very good starter. All three finished with sub-3.00 ERAs. Then there’s Tyler Glasnow, who finally returned from Tommy John surgery in late September. If they need a fifth starter, there’s playoff-tested veteran Corey Kluber. The Rays have the pitching depth to withstand the rigors of a long October. — Schoenfield
What could send them home before you finish reading this: They fail to score runs. Only Cleveland hit fewer home runs among the playoff teams as the lineup simply lacks any star power. Wander Franco failed to ignite while battling injuries in his sophomore season. Brandon Lowe, a 39-homer slugger last season, is out for the season with a back injury. David Peralta hasn’t homered since he was acquired at the trade deadline. Yandy Diaz does get on base and Randy Arozarena has been a doubles machine — and we all remember his heroics in the 2020 postseason — but you have to wonder where the firepower will come from. — Schoenfield
One thing they do that could take down the Astros: The Rays were swept by the Astros at home from Sept. 19 to 21, then dropped two of three against them on the road in the final weekend of the regular season. But it’s hard to glean much from that, especially in the latter series, when the Rays were resting key players to gear up for the postseason. The Rays can pitch with anyone, including the Astros. But their outfield defense could be a separator in a potential matchup. The Rays had the second-best defensive outfield in the majors this season, according to outs above average. And the Astros, unsurprisingly, hit a lot of fly balls. Jose Siri, one of the best defensive center fielders in the game, could play a big role — especially at Minute Maid Park. — Gonzalez
No. 5 seed | 89-72 | AL wild card
Wild-card opponent: Blue Jays (42.4% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 2.2% | Caesars odds: +2000
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 9
How they could stay around longer: Refuse to Lose. Anything Can Happen. True to the Blue. Believe. Hey, after Cal Raleigh clinched Seattle’s playoff spot and ended the franchise’s 21-year-old playoff drought with a dramatic pinch-hit, two-out, bottom-of-the-ninth, 3-2 count, walk-off home run — maybe destiny is on the Mariners’ side. If you want a baseball reason, the bullpen is deep and built for October. But they’ll need to score some runs and to do that, how about a dream scenario: Rookie sensation Julio Rodriguez returns from the sore back that sidelined him at the end of September and has a postseason for the ages. — Schoenfield
What could send them home before you finish reading this: The pitching will need to carry them, but it also looked a little fatigued at times down the stretch. Luis Castillo had three rough September starts when he suddenly lost it in the middle innings. Rookie George Kirby had been a model of consistency until a recent bad outing (and is well beyond his innings total from 2021). Robbie Ray had two scoreless starts in September mixed in with three mediocre ones. The bullpen was pushed hard throughout the season and closer Paul Sewald has been homer-prone of late. The Mariners don’t score enough runs to leave much margin for error, so the entire staff will need to bring it. — Schoenfield
One thing they do that could take down the Astros: The Astros won 12 of 19 games against the Mariners, but they outscored Seattle by only eight runs. In the six games started by Justin Verlander, however, the Astros outscored their division rivals 30-11. Houston won five of those starts. In his past three outings against Seattle, Verlander allowed three runs in 21⅔ innings. In other words — it’s going to be crucial for Seattle to take advantage on the days Verlander doesn’t pitch. Jose Urquidy, Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier have a 5.40 ERA in 48⅓ innings against the M’s this year. — Gonzalez
They should be around next week, but after that …
No. 3 seed | 91-70 | AL Central champs
Wild-card opponent: Rays (55.5% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 2.9% | Caesars odds: +3500
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 15
How they could stay around longer: The Guardians have drawn comparisons to the 2014-15 Royals for their style of play: Contact hitting, speed, defense … and a dominant bullpen. Emmanuel Clase is as good as any closer this side of Edwin Diaz and the top three setup relievers in front of him — James Karinchak, Trevor Stephan and lefty Sam Hentges — have all been outstanding. They’re hard to hit, they strike batters out and all four are stingy with the home run. The pen has been even better since the beginning of July, with the second-best ERA in the majors behind the Dodgers. Get a lead through five or six and the Guardians almost always hold it. October baseball has become more and more about the bullpens and Cleveland can match up with any team. — Schoenfield
What could send them home before you finish reading this: Lack of power. The Guardians have the fewest home runs of the playoff teams and you win in the playoffs by hitting home runs. Don’t buy that? In last year’s postseason, the team that hit more home runs went 25-2-10 — that’s 25 wins, two losses and 10 games where the teams hit the same number. No, the Royals didn’t hit a lot of home runs in 2014 or 2015, but they did hit them in the playoffs (and that was an era with fewer home runs in general). It certainly would be fun to see the Guardians scratch and claw their way to the World Series, but more likely they’ll have to power up. — Schoenfield
One thing they do that could take down the Astros: The only American League team that put the ball in play more often than the Astros was the Guardians — by a pretty sizable margin. Cleveland also stole the third-most bases in the majors and led the sport in going first to third on a single. Putting the ball in play and running the bases both effectively and aggressively is the Guardians’ recipe for success in October, not just against the Astros but against everyone. The Astros are the second-best defensive team in the postseason field, according to outs above average. But Martin Maldonado was below league average in caught-stealing percentage this season. The Guardians need to get on base and they need to run — and just hope the series doesn’t turn into a slugfest. — Gonzalez
No. 4 seed | 92-70 | AL wild card
Wild-card opponent: Mariners (57.6% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 3.7% | Caesars odds: +1800
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 16
How they could stay around longer: The offense goes off. The Blue Jays haven’t produced quite the same gaudy offensive numbers as they did in 2021, but that’s because offense is down across the league. When this offense is clicking it’s still as good as any in the game, with a mix of power and high-average hitters. A big key down the stretch was Bo Bichette, who hit .403 in September. Alejandro Kirk and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are two of the better contact hitters in the game (and Vladdy obviously provides upper-deck power as well). And don’t forget that George Springer has been a great postseason performer in his career, hitting .269/.349/.546 with 19 home runs in 63 games. — Schoenfield
What could send them home before you finish reading this: The bullpen. Jordan Romano has been pretty good as the closer, although not exactly lights out with six blown saves (he did finish strong with 19 scoreless appearances in his final 20 outings). It’s getting to Romano that has been a little tricky. The bullpen was 16th in the majors in FanGraphs WAR, but ahead of only St. Louis and Milwaukee among playoff teams. Thanks to Romano, they were a little better in win probability added, but the lack of depth is an issue and, really, more than any of the other playoff teams, the Jays will need their starters to pitch deeper into games. — Schoenfield
One thing they do that could take down the Astros: The Blue Jays’ three best starters pitched well against the Astros this season, with Alek Manoah, Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios combining to give up just five runs — and walk two batters — in 18⅔ innings over the course of three starts, all victories. None of those outings occurred beyond May 1, but it’s a positive sign nonetheless. The key here is Berrios, who has struggled mightily ever since. If he can get on track and be the elite starter the Blue Jays expect him to be, they’ll have a chance. The Blue Jays can hang with the Astros offensively. But they’ll probably need three bona fide, top-of-the-rotation arms to shut them down, not two. — Gonzalez
Better pack for the whole month
No. 2 seed | 99-63 | AL East champs
ALDS opponent: Rays/Guardians (63.4% chance vs. TB, 64% vs. CLE)
World Series odds: 15.5% | Caesars odds: +500
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 25
How they could stay around longer: Maybe it’s unfair, but it feels like so much is riding on Gerrit Cole’s performance, especially since Frankie Montas wasn’t the big rotation addition the Yankees expected. When Cole bombed out early in the wild-card game against the Red Sox last season, the Yankees went home. He’s still striking out a ton of batters, but he also led the American League with 32 home runs allowed — 16 of them off his four-seam fastball. Cole was especially homer-prone in September with nine in 30 innings and in his four career postseason starts with the Yankees he has allowed six in just 20⅓ innings. He has to figure out how to keep the ball in the park. — Schoenfield
What could send them home early: Opponents pitch around Aaron Judge and the rest of the lineup fails to knock him in. When the Yankees struggled with a 10-18 record in August, they averaged just 3.61 runs per game — even as Judge hit nine home runs and drove in 22 runs. But as he continued mashing throughout the season, teams started walking him more often: 13 times in May, 15 in June, 17 in July, 25 in August and 30 in September. The Yankees led the AL in runs, but they can’t expect one man to carry them for an entire postseason. It’s worth noting that in seven games against the Astros they hit just .151. — Schoenfield
One thing they do that could take down the Astros: The Astros famously got the best of the Yankees during the regular season, winning five of seven. The encouraging news if you’re a Yankees fan: All seven games were decided by three runs or fewer. The not-so-encouraging news: The Yankees didn’t throw a single pitch with a lead. Both of their victories came as a result of come-from-behind rallies followed by walk-off hits from Judge. But the Astros were one of few teams that were actually able to keep Judge mostly in check, holding him to a .148/.258/.370 slash line. Needless to say, Judge’s bat needs to come alive in this potential heavyweight matchup. And the Yankees will have to play a clean, mistake-free brand of baseball. — Gonzalez
Most likely to be playing in November
No. 1 seed | 106-56 | AL West champs
ALDS opponent: Mariners/Blue Jays (64% chance vs. SEA, 62.7% vs. TOR)
World Series odds: 18.0% | Caesars odds: +380
Predicted date of their last game: Nov. 2
Why they are the AL’s team to beat: Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman, the two veteran holdovers from the 2017 World Series champions who continue to get booed around the league, do serious damage at the plate. Altuve quietly had one of his best seasons, with an OPS+ that matched his MVP season in 2017. Bregman, meanwhile, had a big second half, the best he’s hit since 2019. Altuve has been outstanding in his postseason career (.286/.361/.567, 23 home runs in 79 games) while Bregman less so (.226/.339/.400, 12 home runs in 73 games), but if they’re getting on base in front of Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, good things can happen. — Schoenfield
What could send them home early: The bottom of the lineup fails to contribute. The Astros don’t get much from their catchers, Martin Maldonado and Christian Vazquez (who hasn’t homered for Houston since coming over from Boston at the trade deadline). Yuli Gurriel had a rough season. Trey Mancini, the other trade acquisition, has hit under .200 for the Astros. Rookie shortstop Jeremy Pena has seen his numbers drop in the second half. This lineup simply lacks the depth of some other Houston teams of recent vintage. If the big four don’t click, it could be a quick exit — no matter how dominant Justin Verlander and the rest of the rotation is. — Schoenfield
Their biggest advantage if MLB’s two best teams meet in November: Most of the Dodgers’ postseason pitching plan remains a mystery, but one thing has already been declared by manager Dave Roberts: Julio Urias, Clayton Kershaw and Tyler Anderson will make up three-fourths of their postseason rotation. What do they all have in common? They’re all lefties. And the Astros — with a right-handed-heavy lineup headlined by Bregman and Altuve — feasted on left-handed pitching this season. Their best hitter, the left-handed-hitting Alvarez, was elite against lefties, too. In a matchup of two teams that are pretty closely matched, it could make the difference. If the Astros can make a habit out of scoring early, they could claim their second World Series title against the Dodgers — and their first without a cheating scandal. — Gonzalez
National League
Most likely to go home this weekend …
No. 6 seed | 87-75 | NL third wild card
Wild-card opponent: Cardinals (39.7% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 1.9% | Caesars odds: +3500
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 9
How they could stay around longer: The bullpen falls into place. Philadelphia has a 5.04 bullpen ERA since the beginning of September, a big contributor to Philly’s near-collapse down the stretch. Injuries have included Corey Knebel (done for the season) and Brad Hand (question mark for the playoffs). David Robertson will be a part of the high-leverage mix. Other solutions have emerged: converted starter Zach Eflin has flourished out of the bullpen, and Jose Alvarado has been as hot as any reliever. Struggling Seranthony Dominguez regaining the dominant form he flashed before an August injury might be enough to push the Phillies over the hump. — Doolittle
What could send them home before you finish reading this: The Cardinals’ staff keeps the Phillies in the yard. St. Louis is a low-strikeout pitching staff by contemporary standards. But Busch Stadium is stingy with homers and even on the road, the Cardinals don’t yield a high homer rate. Also, those contact-heavy pitchers are backed by baseball’s best defense. The Phillies own MLB’s third-highest homer rate and while they aren’t the most longball-dependent offense in the postseason, they aren’t far off. Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins & Co. need to combine for two or three bombs per game or the Phillies will have a hard time turning the scoreboard. — Doolittle
One thing they do that could take down the Dodgers: The 2019 Washington Nationals proved you don’t need to be incredibly deep or even well-rounded to defeat the Dodgers in a short series. Sometimes, if the top of your roster is elite, you just need your best players to perform to their capabilities. Harper and Schwarber combined for a 1.315 OPS in 54 plate appearances against the Dodgers this season, but Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler combined to allow nine runs in 17⅔ innings. In those four — and catcher J.T. Realmuto — the Phillies boast upper-echelon talent. They’ll need them to do most of the heavy lifting to defeat L.A. — Gonzalez
No. 5 seed | 89-73 | NL second wild card
Wild-card opponent: Mets (36.4% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 1.3% | Caesars odds: +2800
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 9
How they could stay around longer: Juan Soto goes off. Soto went into a funk not long after the monumental midseason trade that sent him to San Diego. While his overall San Diego numbers are down even from his subpar pre-trade numbers in Washington, Soto has quietly been trending up over the past couple of weeks. And let’s not forget that when the Nationals won the World Series in 2019, Soto’s huge postseason as a 20-year-old had a lot to do with it. All the hand-wringing over Soto’s post-trade play would be forgotten if he has a big October. — Doolittle
What could send them home before you finish reading this: The Padres’ rotation, especially Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove, carried them into the playoffs down the stretch. That success needs to continue, but it wouldn’t have mattered had closer Josh Hader not straightened himself out. After a catastrophic start to his Padres career, Hader finished strong — making his midseason slump all the more bewildering. What happens if the bizarro Hader returns? San Diego will be done, that’s what will happen. Sure, you can say the same thing about every team that leans on a primary closer — but not every team saw its relief ace pitch like Hader did in August. — Doolittle
One thing they do that could take down the Dodgers: The Padres struggled mightily against their Southern California rivals this season, losing 14 of 19 and getting outscored by a combined 62 runs. To beat L.A., they’ll need to make sure Yu Darvish pitches as often as possible and Sean Manaea doesn’t pitch against the Dodgers at all. They’ll need Soto and Manny Machado to be at their best. They’ll need Hader to be the lockdown closer they thought they were getting at the start of August. And they’ll need contributions from several others. Most of all, perhaps, they’ll need to summon some confidence. — Gonzalez
2:59
Tim Kurkjian and Eduardo Perrez preview all of the postseason Wild Card matchups.
They should be around next week, but after that …
No. 3 seed | 93-69 | NL Central champs
Wild-card opponent: Phillies (60.3% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 4.1% | Caesars odds: +2000
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 15
How they could stay around longer: Stars of the past and stars of the present. Few players have had as many big October moments as Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina. This is their last shot at it and after what we’ve seen Pujols do since the All-Star break, the next chapter in this fairy tale would be a stirring playoff run. But for all the attention Pujols has rightly deserved, the Cardinals have featured a pair of NL MVP candidates in Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt. Offense is hard to come by in the playoffs and one or two hot players can carry a team. If Arenado and Goldschmidt go off, it might not even matter what Pujols and Molina do. — Doolittle
What could send them home before you finish reading this: Picking the wrong playoff rotation. Ollie Marmol and his staff have tended to push the right buttons during their first go-around running the Redbirds, but piecing together a playoff rotation will be tough. St. Louis deepened its rotation with the midseason acquisitions of Jordan Montgomery and Jose Quintana, while Jack Flaherty has been trending up. Adam Wainwright has been struggling but he’s Adam Wainwright. Then you’ve got Miles Mikolas, the club’s most consistent regular-season performer. St. Louis has at least five decent options but differentiating among them for the best possible matchups in a short series is quite a puzzle. — Doolittle
One thing they do that could take down the Dodgers: The Dodgers are the kings of velocity. Their offense was by far the most productive in the sport against 95-plus mph fastballs this season. But that is not how this Cardinals rotation profiles. Wainwright relies mostly on a big curveball and throws his fastballs in the 80s. Montgomery relies heavily on curveballs and changeups. The same can be said for Quintana, whose fastball hardly ventures beyond the low 90s. Flaherty and Mikolas throw harder, but not by a whole lot. These are the types of arms that might stand the best chance of keeping the Dodgers’ hitters off balance. — Gonzalez
No. 4 seed | 101-61 | NL wild card
Wild-card opponent: Padres (63.6% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 5.4% | Caesars odds: +800
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 15
How they could stay around longer: Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer return to peak form in both excellence and duration. That is to say, any game in which deGrom and Scherzer are able to dominate into the late innings and come close to handing the ball straight to dominant closer Edwin Diaz is a game that the Mets will be heavily favored to win — no matter who the opponent is. Scherzer has been Scherzer for most of the season but hasn’t often gone past the sixth inning of late. DeGrom enters the playoffs in a rough stretch by his standards. But if they go to another level when the October lights shine, would anyone be surprised? — Doolittle
What could send them home early: A Pete Alonso/Francisco Lindor power outage. The Mets built a potent offense all season with a balance of skill sets. They are the least homer-reliant club in the NL bracket. This is a good thing but base hits become harder to string together during the playoffs. The most consistent sources of power have been Alonso and Lindor. It’s not all about homers, but also plugging the gaps with runners on base: The pair have combined to drive in nearly a third of the runs the Mets have scored. New York can’t afford for them to go cold at the same time. — Doolittle
One thing they do that could take down the Dodgers: The Mets are imperfect, but they possess what might be the best formula to take down the Dodgers — pitchers who can single-handedly dominate an entire series. Scherzer and deGrom can do that out of the rotation, and Diaz can do that out of the bullpen. It’ll require Scherzer to pitch on short rest — perhaps deGrom as well, though that is unlikely given his injury history and lingering free agency — and Diaz to contribute more than three outs. It won’t be easy, but no one said it would be. — Gonzalez
1:44
Eduardo Perrez and Tim Kurkjian talk about the New York Mets and their chances to advance this postseason.
Better pack for the whole month
No. 2 seed | 101-61 | NL East champs
NLDS opponent: Phillies/Cardinals (61.5% chance vs. PHI, 55.8% vs. STL)
World Series odds: 12.5% | Caesars odds: +600
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 24
How they could stay around longer: If the bullpen falls into place like it did last October, look out. The Braves’ are entering the playoffs with a more stable rotation outlook than a year ago, so Brian Snitker shouldn’t need to lean quite as heavily on his fireman as he did en route to the 2021 title. But even if he does, the Atlanta bullpen as a group has been smoking hot of late — led by trade acquisition Raisel Iglesias, who has allowed one earned run in 27 outings since he joined the Braves. Kenley Jansen has been very good, as have Collin McHugh, A.J. Minter and Dylan Lee. If Tyler Matzek can find last season’s consistency, there might not be a bad lever for Snitker to pull. — Doolittle
What could send them home before you finish reading this: A couple of lifeless cutters in the wrong situation by Jansen. This isn’t to pick on Jansen. He’s had an excellent first season in Atlanta. He leads the NL in saves and is on a pretty good roll entering the playoffs. But he still isn’t the shutdown hammer he was during his prime, and the Braves are such a complete team that there isn’t much else that might be a glaring issue. — Doolittle
One thing they do that could take down the Dodgers: The Braves and Dodgers have met in back-to-back NLCS, splitting the two series, and they seem poised square off again. Outside of the Astros, the Braves might be the closest to matching the Dodgers’ depth and balance. Their separator could be in the bullpen. The three guys who entered this season as the Dodgers’ most important back-end relievers are either lost for the year (Daniel Hudson), pitching in low-leverage situations because of ineffectiveness (Craig Kimbrel) or recovering from injury (Blake Treinen). The Braves are as deep as ever in the back end of their bullpen, and this is a clear advantage for them. — Gonzalez
Most likely to be playing in November
No. 1 seed | 111-51 | NL West champs
NLDS opponent: Padres/Mets (75.2% chance vs. SD, 65.4% vs. NYM)
World Series odds: 30.6% | Caesars odds: +300
Predicted date of their last game: Nov. 2
Why they are the team to beat in all of MLB: During the regular season, depth is what jumps to mind. L.A. has a roster and system of processes with so much quality redundancy built in that it’s hard to remember a time when we didn’t simply pencil the Dodgers in for a playoff spot before a season began. Depth isn’t irrelevant in the playoffs, but it’s clearly not as big a factor with the possible exception of the back of the bullpen. The thing is, the Dodgers aren’t just about depth. They are about all of the things, and a team with star power like this has a talent edge on everyone. And, oh yeah, they just won 110** games with the run differential that suggests they were actually a little unlucky. — Doolittle
What could send them home early: The term “Achilles’ heel” has become such a sports cliche. If the Dodgers falter, maybe we’ll have to update it to “L.A. closer.” Like in the NFL, you might say, “They have an airtight defense but their L.A. closer is the lack of a quality third corner.” The Dodgers have run roughshod over the majors all season and have such a depth of impact talent in the organization that it’s dizzying. And yet they enter the playoffs with an uncertain end-of-game situation because of the struggles of Craig Kimbrel. It’s hard to fathom. — Doolittle
Their biggest advantage if MLB’s two best teams meet in November: First, a tangible one: Mookie Betts, Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman. The Dodgers’ dynamic top-of-the-lineup trio is what separates them from everyone, even the most elite. No team can boast the combination of bat-to-ball skills, power and baserunning that those three possess in abundance. –
Now, an intangible one: Revenge. Betts, Turner and Freeman were not with the Dodgers when they lost the 2017 World Series to an Astros team that was later found to have illegally stolen signs. But a few others — Clayton Kershaw, Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, Cody Bellinger and Austin Barnes — were. And beating the Astros on this stage would qualify as the ultimate payback, no matter how much these rosters have changed over the last five years. — Gonzalez
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Chris Low, ESPN Senior Writer
TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — Ryan Williams‘ only thought after he pulled in the most important catch of his young college football career was simple.
“I can’t get tackled,” he said late Saturday night.
In the open field, few defenders have tackled Alabama‘s dynamic freshman wide receiver, and it was his 75-yard touchdown catch — complete with an electrifying spin move and dash to the end zone — that helped No. 4 Alabama hold on for a thrilling 41-34 win over No. 2 Georgia at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
In real time, Williams joked the spin move felt as if were “in slow motion.” But when he watched it on the stadium’s video screen, he said it looked a little faster.
“I just had to do my part in helping us finish that game,” Williams said. “We’d come too far. Somebody had to make a play.”
In a game the Crimson Tide once led 28-0, they suddenly found themselves trailing 34-33 with a little more than two minutes left after a furious Georgia rally. Williams and quarterback Jalen Milroe didn’t waste any time answering. On first down, Milroe delivered the pass right where he wanted to, on Williams’ back shoulder. Once he gathered it in, Williams did a pirouette around Georgia defensive back Julian Humphrey and left a vapor trail down the right sideline.
“Man, when I first saw him, he was this skinny kid,” Alabama linebacker Jihaad Campbell said. “Then you got him on the practice field, and he’s been doing things like that ever since. That’s just who he is.”
As in the most dynamic true freshman in college football.
Through four games, Williams has caught five touchdown passes and is averaging 28.9 yards per catch. He also had an incredible 54-yard bobbling catch in the third quarter against Georgia to set up a field goal.
“He’s only going to get better, and the best thing about him is that he’s always working, always doing something to become a better player, the work in the dark that not everyone sees,” said Milroe, who passed for 374 yards and two touchdowns and rushed for 117 yards and two touchdowns.
Campbell said the poise on the Alabama sideline, starting with coach Kalen DeBoer, was never more apparent than in those final minutes when Georgia roared all the way back to take the lead after trailing 30-7 at the half.
“That’s the standard at Alabama, and it just filters down to the players, to everybody,” Campbell said.
As the Alabama offense trotted back onto the field, Williams said he didn’t need to nudge Milroe or even give a quick wave to his quarterback once Williams lined up for the play. Yes, he wanted the ball and knew Milroe would find a way to get it to him.
“Nah, I ain’t got to be a mailbox. He knows what’s up,” said Williams, who finished with six catches for 177 yards and now has six catches of 40 yards or longer on the season.
Clearly, there’s a budding connection between Milroe and Williams.
“He knows four plus two equals six,” Williams said, referring to Milroe’s number and his number, respectively. “I know four plus two equals six. The ball’s just got to go in the air.”
Even so, this is rare air for someone Williams’ age. He’s only 17 and doesn’t turn 18 until Feb. 9. He wasn’t even born when Nick Saban was named Alabama’s coach in 2007.
With Saban watching from his suite, as Alabama beat Georgia for the ninth time in the past 10 meetings, Williams was only one of two freshmen who helped the Crimson Tide continue their mastery of Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs.
Georgia, attempting to make another mad dash to tie the score, moved to the Alabama 20 with just under a minute to play. But on first down, quarterback Carson Beck lofted a pass to the end zone that a leaping Zabien Brown intercepted.
Just like Williams, Brown also wears No. 2, and he’s also a true freshman.
Williams said he and Brown were playing the “EA Sports College Football” video game Friday night when Brown called the winning interception while they were playing.
“So this morning I was like, ‘Bro, you’re going to catch a pick?'” Williams said. “And he was like, ‘Of course that’s what I’m going to try to do.’ Next thing you know, he’s got the game-winning interception. I was like, ‘Man, we called it.’ I was screaming. That’s how I lost my voice, because I was screaming.”
Milroe laughed when asked what it said about Alabama’s program that two true freshmen would make such a big impact in a top-five matchup.
“Recruiting,” Milroe said, chuckling. “Nah, one thing I can say about those guys is they work really hard, and I’m all about a guy working in the dark. I see them working on their craft after practice. I see them communicating, and they do a really good job constantly of trying to build and acknowledging that they’re not a finished product.
“I think that’s so important for our football team, just to keep on climbing.”
DeBoer and the Alabama staff worked overtime to land Williams, who was ESPN’s No. 3 overall prospect in the 2024 signing class. Williams had been committed to the Crimson Tide but decommitted right after Saban retired.
DeBoer said he has been impressed by how good Williams is after the catch.
“He’s doing it over and over again, getting the ball in his hands and making people miss and getting a lot of yards after contact,” DeBoer said.
Milroe added: “It’s what we do from here that matters, building on this. What we’re seeing now is all the work we put in this offseason, the way the coaches believed in us and then some of the younger guys we brought in. Just got to keep growing, all of us.”
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David Schoenfield, ESPN Senior Writer
Travis d’Arnaud hit the biggest home of the season for the Atlanta Braves. Fans of the New York Mets are in a state of panic. Paul Skenes delivered two more scoreless innings to cap off his stunning rookie season with a 1.96 ERA. Saturday is in the books. We have one full day of the regular season left — plus the Braves-Mets doubleheader Monday.
Here’s what to watch, starting with the National League wild-card race, where the Braves now have a one-game lead over the Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks as the three teams battle for two spots.
New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers shut out the Mets 6-0 on Saturday, handing the Mets their first three-game losing streak since Aug. 11. When the Braves beat the Royals 2-1 later, it dropped the Mets behind the Braves in the standings for the first time since Sept. 4.
The Mets will start David Peterson on Sunday. The lefty has allowed five runs in two of his past three starts, although he has generally been effective since July, with a 2.90 ERA over his past 15 starts. The Brewers are locked into the third seed and will certainly rest all their top relievers as they get ready for Tuesday’s wild-card series. Colin Rea gets the start for Milwaukee, but expect a heavy bullpen game with the secondary relievers getting the action.
The Mets used their top three starters in this series: Sean Manaea on Friday, Jose Quintana on Saturday and now Peterson. That means Luis Severino and Tylor Megill are the likely starters for Monday’s doubleheader. The Braves do have a righty-heavy lineup and have an OPS nearly 70 points higher against lefties, so at least the Mets will have their two right-handed starters going Monday.
Kansas City Royals at Atlanta Braves
The Braves beat the Royals on d’Arnaud’s walk-off home run. Reynaldo Lopez returned from the injured list to make his first start for Atlanta since Sept. 10 and allowed just two hits and one run in six innings. The 2024 All-Star finishes the season with a 2.00 ERA in 25 starts (although he didn’t pitch enough innings to qualify for the ERA title).
The Braves’ gamble to hold off on starting probable Cy Young winner Chris Sale until absolutely needed has paid off. Sale could have started Friday, but the Braves have said they were going to hold him back until facing potential elimination. With a one-game lead in the wild-card race, the earliest that now could come would be the second game of the doubleheader against the Mets. The best-case scenario, of course, is that they clinch before using Sale and having him ready for Game 1 of the wild-card series.
As of Saturday night, manager Brian Snitker said the team hadn’t decided on a Sunday starter. Charlie Morton would be the starter with the most rest, but the Braves might want to save him for the Mets. That could leave Grant Holmes to face a slumping Kansas City offense.
Remember as well: The Braves lead the season series 6-5 over the Mets, meaning the tiebreaker between the two teams is still up for grabs.
San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
The Padres blanked the Diamondbacks 5-0 on Saturday — the second shutout in four games for the high-powered Arizona attack and their fifth loss in six games as a wild-card spot that looked pretty safe a week ago is suddenly in jeopardy. Indeed, the key to remember here is the Diamondbacks lose the tiebreaker to both the Mets and Braves.
Sunday now feels like a must-win for Arizona. If they lose again, one win by the Mets on Sunday or in Monday’s doubleheader would eliminate the Diamondbacks.
With Zac Gallen in line to start the wild-card opener after pitching Wednesday, Brandon Pfaadt will start Sunday against Martin Perez. Pfaadt has been all over the place lately, getting knocked out in the third inning of his last start and in the second inning two starts ago, but sandwiched around a 12-strikeout game.
American League wild card
Lots of this was settled Friday night: First, before a boisterous crowd of 44,435 fans at Comerica Park, the Tigers beat the White Sox 4-1 to win their sixth straight game and clinch their first playoff spot since 2014. They had been tied with the Angels for the longest active playoff drought in the majors.
The Royals backed into their first postseason since 2015 when the Twins lost.
The Orioles clinched the fourth seed in beating Minnesota. The Tigers are one game up on the Royals for the fifth seed, but the Royals hold the tiebreaker in case they finish with the same record. The fifth seed will play at Baltimore while the sixth seed will play at Houston in the wild-card series (the higher seed gets all home games). The good news for the both the Tigers and Royals is they can save Tarik Skubal and Cole Ragans for the first games of the wild-card series, rather than having to start them Sunday.
Battles for the best record and top seed
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The Dodgers clinched both the top seed in the NL and the top seed overall (the fourth time in eight season the Dodgers finished with MLB’s best record). That leaves the Phillies as the No. 2 seed in the NL.
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Despite a 9-4 loss to the Pirates as Luis Gil served up four home runs, the Yankees clinched the top seed in the AL when the Guardians lost, making Cleveland the No. 2 seed.
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The No. 5 and No. 6 seeds in both leagues remain unsettled. The Tigers have a one-game lead over the Royals in the AL, but the Royals hold the tiebreaker if they finish with the same record.
The Shohei Ohtani watch … continues
The man is not slowing down. You thought we were done with Ohtani milestones after he cleared 50/50? No way. He went 2-for-5 with his 58th stolen base in Saturday’s blowout win over Colorado — his 35th consecutive stolen base without getting caught. Going back to his 6-for-6 game, he’s an incredible 26-for-39, a .667 average.
What can he do if he plays Sunday? He’s at 99 extra-base hits; the last players to reach 100 did it in 2001. And the Triple Crown is in play. Ohtani raised his average to .310. League leader Luis Arraez didn’t play Saturday, so remains at .314. It will be interesting to see if Arraez sits again on his .314 average and forces Ohtani to have a big day to catch him.
If Ohtani goes 4-for-5, he would be hitting .31397. Arraez is currently at .31388.
Other statistical races at play
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Can Aaron Judge get to 60 home runs? Judge was back in the lineup Saturday after a day off, but went 0-for-5 with five strikeouts. That dropped his slugging percentage to .701 as he tries to become the first player to slug .700 since Barry Bonds in 2004. The last player to do so outside of the 1994 to 2004 window was Ted Williams in 1957.
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Ohtani already passed 400 total bases, the first time that was done since 2001. Judge is at 392 so would likely need a two-homer finale to get there.
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Bobby Witt Jr. now looks like a lock for the AL batting title. He has held the lead all summer, and when he peaked with a .352 average on Aug. 16, he held a comfortable 19-point lead over Judge (and 33 points over Vladimir Guerrero Jr.). After sitting Saturday, Witt remained at .332, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 0-for-4 to fall to .324 while Judge dropped to .322 (which also eliminates his chance of a Triple Crown).
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Jose Ramirez hit his 39th home run Saturday, so needs one more to join the exclusive 40/40 club, which has just six members: Ohtani, Ronald Acuna Jr. (2023), Alfonso Soriano (2006), Alex Rodriguez (1998), Barry Bonds (1996) and Jose Canseco (1998).
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Ryan Helsley of the Cardinals has 49 saves; 50 saves has been achieved 17 times, the last by Edwin Diaz in 2018.
Saying goodbye
Joey Votto, who didn’t play in the majors this season after signing a minor league contract with the Blue Jays, announced his retirement a few weeks ago, and his next stop will eventually be receiving a Hall of Fame plaque in Cooperstown. Two longtime outfielders have also officially announced their retirements at the end of the season:
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Los Angeles Dodgers CF Kevin Kiermaier: It’s not clear whether Kiermaier will make the Dodgers’ playoff roster as a backup outfielder (he has hit .164 with the Dodgers and has started just two games in September), so this could be it for one of the best defensive center fielders of all time. Yes, all time. Kiermaier has won four Gold Gloves, displaying incredible lateral range during his heyday with the Tampa Bay Rays. His 38 defensive runs saved in 2015 is the best single-season total for a center fielder since DRS began in 2003, and his career total of 173 is the most for any outfielder since 2003 (and third most at any position, behind only Andrelton Simmons and Adrian Beltre). Kiermaier’s defensive excellence is reflected in his career WAR of 36.1. Not bad for a 31st-round pick from Parkland Community College.
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Colorado Rockies DH/OF Charlie Blackmon: Blackmon has spent his entire 14-year career with the Rockies. It took him a while to get situated in the big leagues — his first full season didn’t come until he was 27 years old — but he went on to become a four-time All-Star and finished fifth in the 2017 NL MVP voting after leading the league in batting average (.331), hits (213) and runs (137). His power declined after that 2016 to 2019 peak, but he’s one of the most popular players in Rockies history and will finish with more than 1,800 hits in the majors.
There might be a few other veterans playing their final games who just haven’t yet announced their retirements. Matt Carpenter comes to mind here. Kyle Hendricks wants to pitch in 2025, but he heads into free agency, and his start Saturday at Wrigley Field will likely be his final one after 11 seasons with the Chicago Cubs. Let’s hope Andrew McCutchen returns to the Pittsburgh Pirates for another season after he put up solid numbers in 2024. If these guys don’t return — thanks for the memorable careers.
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Mark Schlabach, ESPN Senior Writer
TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — Alabama blew a 28-point lead against No. 2 Georgia at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday night.
And then the No. 4 Crimson Tide broke the Bulldogs’ hearts again in a 41-34 victory in which the SEC heavyweights scored touchdowns on consecutive plays from scrimmage late in the fourth quarter.
Alabama didn’t seal the victory until cornerback Zabien Brown intercepted quarterback Carson Beck‘s pass to receiver Colbie Young in the end zone with 43 seconds left to end Georgia’s furious rally.
After the Bulldogs rallied from a 23-point deficit at halftime, they took their first lead on Beck’s 67-yard touchdown to Dillon Bell to make it 34-33 with 2:31 to go.
But Alabama scored on its very next play from scrimmage. On first-and-10 from the Crimson Tide 25, quarterback Jalen Milroe threw a deep ball down the right sideline for freshman Ryan Williams. The receiver spun out of cornerback Julian Humphrey‘s tackle at the 8-yard line and beat safety KJ Bolden for a 75-yard touchdown with 2:18 remaining. Milroe threw a 2-point conversion to receiver Germie Bernard to give Alabama a 41-34 lead.
Milroe completed 27 of 33 passes for 374 yards with two touchdowns and ran for 117 yards with two scores. He is the first player in FBS history with 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns against an AP top-five opponent, according to ESPN Research.
Williams, a 17-year-old freshman, had six catches for 177 yards with one score.
Beck recovered from a slow start to complete 27 of 50 passes for 439 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions. He also lost a fumble and was sacked three times.
The loss ended Georgia’s 42-game winning streak in the regular season, which was the longest run by an FBS team since Oklahoma won 45 in a row from 1953 to 1957. It also snapped Georgia’s 16-game winning streak on the road.
It was new Tide coach Kalen DeBoer’s first meeting with Georgia, but the results were the same for Alabama. It has won nine of its past 10 games against Georgia, including a 27-24 victory in last year’s SEC championship game, which led to the Bulldogs failing to make the College Football Playoff.
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