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The final straw for Liz Truss’s premiership was a collapse of confidence among Conservative MPs, but the underlying cause is an economic crisis she first ignored, then deepened, and will now define her successor’s time in office.

The Conservatives are about to discover that they can change leaders but not the economic hole they have dug, or the ideological splits that did much of the work.

Ms Truss got into Number 10 on the promise of “growth growth growth”, to the delight of small-state free marketeer colleagues who coalesced around her candidacy only at the last moment.

Her decision to deliver that ambition by offering extravagant unfunded tax cuts without the ballast of an Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast proved fatal, spooking markets and shattering her prospectus for government.

While she’s gone her emergency rip-cord Chancellor Jeremy Hunt remains, his priority to recover economic credibility and financial stability.

That process began on Monday with the reversal of most of the mini-budget tax plans, and a clear signal of tax rises and spending cuts to come.

Investors are for now reassured – as Ms Truss fell so did the cost of government borrowing on long-term gilt markets and the pound strengthened – but this is just the start.

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Next week, as the Conservative parliamentary party runs a five-day leadership election, Mr Hunt and the Treasury will be finalising the fiscal statement that could have a far greater impact.

That statement is currently scheduled to be made on Monday 31 October, after the new prime minister has been selected and a delay cannot be ruled out despite the risk of market disapproval.

If that timetable holds, however, the calculations and decisions that will shape public spending for the next five years will have to be made as the candidates topple.

The black hole in the public finances has been calculated as at least £60bn, deepening to closer to £70bn after the mini-budget drove up borrowing costs and the price of servicing existing debt.

Typically the OBR produces five forecasts in the run-up to a fiscal statement, containing its five-year view of the prospects for economic growth and the cost of public spending.

Next Tuesday it is due deliver the fourth draft, which will reflect the tax-reversals announced on Monday and presumably the cost of maintaining the triple-lock on pensions confirmed by Ms Truss on Wednesday, plus any new measures that are not yet public.

The fifth and final version, containing any additional measures, is due to be delivered on Thursday.

Reversing tax cuts has closed the gap by around £30bn but there is much more to find, and the search for policy measures that can boost growth has helped drive the chaos of the last week.

The rancorous resignation of Suella Braverman as home secretary on Wednesday offered an insight. While she cited an innocent breach of communication protocol, her allies pointed to a fundamental difference in opinion over immigration policy.

They claim she opposed plans by Ms Truss and Mr Hunt to liberalise immigration restrictions allowing more high-skilled workers.

There is also pressure to expand the shortage-occupation list, which grants an exception to post-Brexit visa restrictions, across a range of professions, including engineers to help deliver on the government’s broadband targets.

Both would boost the growth side of the OBR’s ledger, easing the demand for spending cuts, but this economic reality grinds directly against Brexit ideology.

There are several other pro-growth strategies that run into trouble among Conservative MPs. Planning reform to allow more development and housebuilding is problematic in leafy southern constituencies, onshore wind is barely more popular, and fracking delivered the final seismic blow to Ms Truss on Wednesday night.

While the Conservative’s squabble and markets wait for the OBR and the chancellor, business looks on aghast, uncertain whether what they hear today will still apply tomorrow.

The CBI, shop stewards for British big business and traditionally close to the Conservatives, delivered an unusually blunt response to the PM’s departure, without a single word for Ms Truss herself

“The politics of recent weeks have undermined the confidence of people, businesses, markets and global investors in Britain. That must now come to an end if we are to avoid yet more harm to households and firms,” said director general Tony Danker.

“Stability is key. The next prime minister will need to act to restore confidence from day one. They will need to deliver a credible fiscal plan for the medium term as soon as possible, and a plan for the long-term growth of our economy.”

They are not alone in that view.

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Former Missguided owner Alteri in talks to buy Kurt Geiger

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Former Missguided owner Alteri in talks to buy Kurt Geiger

A former owner of Missguided, the youth fashion brand, is in talks to buy Kurt Geiger, the upmarket shoe and accessories retailer.

Sky News has learnt that Alteri Investors, which was backed by the global private equity giant Apollo Management when it launched a decade ago, is among a number of parties in discussions about a takeover of the 61-year-old footwear brand.

City sources said this weekend that the talks were at an early stage and were not being held on an exclusive basis.

Several other parties are also considering bids for Kurt Geiger, which has been owned by Cinven, the private equity firm, since 2015.

The brand’s celebrity customers reportedly include Kylie Jenner, Jennifer Lopez and Paris Hilton.

Last October, Sky News revealed that Cinven had appointed Bank of America to oversee an auction of the retailer.

At the time, banking sources said they expected the company to fetch a price in the region of £400m.

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It was unclear what valuation a deal under discussion with Alteri would command.

Luxury goods groups and other buyout firms are understood to have been examining offers for Kurt Geiger in recent months.

Kurt Geiger, which was founded in 1963, is run by Neil Clifford, its long-serving chief executive.

Previously backed by Sycamore Partners, another private equity group, the brand is targeting significant expansion in the US through a chain of standalone stores.

To mark its 60th anniversary last year, Mr Clifford announced plans to establish a design academy for young people to embark on careers in the fashion industry.

Mr Clifford has run the business for the last two decades.

Last year, it announced a £150m debt deal to fund its international expansion and refinance existing borrowings.

In the UK, Kurt Geiger’s shoes have been sold at department stores including Harrods and Selfridges for years.

Alteri has owned a number of retailers in Europe since it was established, and is the current owner of the Bensons for Beds chain.

It specialises in distressed or turnaround situations, and has been linked with chains including BHS, the now-defunct department store group, and Poundworld, the discounter.

Kurt Geiger recently published results showing a 10% rise in sales in the year to the end of January.

Earnings of £40.4m on revenue of £360m put the business back in line with its pre-Covid performance, Mr Clifford said last month.

Alteri and Cinven both declined to comment this weekend.

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Southern Water considering shipping supplies from Norway to UK due to drought fears

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Southern Water considering shipping supplies from Norway to UK due to drought fears

One of the UK’s largest water companies is considering shipping supplies from Norway to the UK.

Southern Water said the idea was a “last-resort contingency measure” in case of extreme droughts in the early 2030s.

Up to 45 million litres could be brought to the UK per day under the proposals.

The Financial Times, which first reported the potential move, said the water, from melting glaciers by fjords in the Scandinavian country, would be transported by tankers.

It comes as fears grow over the future of water services in the UK following droughts in the summer of 2022 when some areas of the country came close to running out of supplies.

The Financial Times said Southern Water was in “early-stage” talks with Extreme Drought Resilience Service, a private UK company that supplies water by sea tanker.

The firm would pay for the measure out of customers’ bills, according to the report.

Southern Water, which covers Hampshire, Kent, East and West Sussex, and the Isle of Wight, currently gets its supplies from groundwater and rare chalk streams.

However, the Environment Agency (EA) has urged the firm to reduce its reliance on such sources amid concerns over the environmental impact and fears they could make the risk of droughts worse.

‘Costly and carbon-intensive’

Water firms have come under growing criticism in recent years over sewage spills and rising bills, with households facing an average increase of 21% over the next five years.

Companies have also been urged to improve their infrastructure to help supplies. Currently around a fifth of water running through pipes is lost to leaks, according to regulator Ofwat.

And a report by the EA earlier this year found that Southern Water, along with Anglian Water, Thames Water and Yorkshire Water, was responsible for more than 90% of serious pollution incidents.

Following criticism over sewage discharges, Southern Water’s chief executive Lawrence Gosden blamed “too much rain” in 2023 for the problem during an interview with ITV News.

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The company said it was facing a shortfall of 166 million litres per day in Hampshire alone during future droughts.

But the firm said it was already undertaking other measures to address the problem, including by building the UK’s first new reservoir in more than three decades in Havant Thicket.

However, Greenpeace UK’s chief scientist Dr Doug Parr criticised the Norway proposal and said the firm should focus more on addressing issues domestically.

“Tankering in huge quantities of water from Norway will inevitably be a costly and carbon-intensive alternative to that of doing a better job with the water resources that are available in a rainy country like the UK,” he said.

He added: “Despite the obvious failings of planning, water companies need to start thinking of potable fresh water as a precious and finite resource, and plan to start treating it as such.”

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From 2022: How can we protect ourselves from water crisis?

Tim McMahon, Southern Water’s managing director for water, said: “We put less water into supply now than we did 30 years ago and measures like reducing leakage have enabled us to keep pace so far with population growth and climate change.

“As we work to take less water from our chalk streams and build new reservoirs like Havant Thicket in Hampshire, we need a range of options to help protect the environment while this infrastructure comes online.”

Mr McMahon added: “Importing water would be a last resort contingency measure that would only be used for a short period in the event of an extreme drought emergency in the early 2030s – something considerably worse than the drought of 1976.

“We’re committed to continuing to work with our regulators on developing the right solutions to meet the challenge of water scarcity, while protecting the environment.”

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Six Nations backer CVC plots trip with Loveholidays

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Six Nations backer CVC plots trip with Loveholidays

The private equity giant which owns a stake in rugby’s Six Nations Championship is weighing a bid for a stake in one of Britain’s biggest online travel agents.

Sky News has learnt CVC Capital Partners is among the suitors considering making an offer to become a partial owner of Loveholidays.

The travel company, which has been backed by Livingbridge, a smaller private equity firm, since 2018 has been exploring its ownership options for months.

Some industry sources believe Loveholidays is leaning towards a minority stake sale following talks with prospective investors.

CVC’s interest is at an early stage and might not lead to a firm offer, they said.

Loveholidays, along with OnTheBeach and TUI, ranks among the UK’s biggest travel agents and has been a big winner from the post-pandemic resurgence in demand from holidaymakers.

Last year, Sky News reported bankers at Evercore were being lined up to run a process and Loveholidays was likely to be worth in the region of £1bn.

It specialises in trips to the Mediterranean and Canary Islands, and boasts that its inventory of 35,000 hotels and 99% of all flights result in 500 billion possible holiday packages.

Loveholidays was founded in 2012 by Alex Francis and Jonny Marsh, and now employs hundreds of people.

CVC declined to comment.

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