Ranking all 32 NHL Reverse Retro jerseys for 2022-23
The NHL’s Reverse Retro jerseys were a sensation two years ago, creating significant sales and conversation among hockey fans. Adidas felt the pressure of creating a sequel to that blockbuster with its 2022-23 season retro sweaters.
“How many amazing remix combinations are out there?” said Dan Near, senior director at Adidas hockey. “We spent a lot of time debating about whether the franchise should evolve into something else or is this a sequel. We went with the latter.”
As with any sequel, there are a few differences from the original. The 32 new Reverse Retro jerseys feature more white sweaters than the 2020 collection. Please recall that because of the COVID pandemic, the 2020-21 season was played without interdivisional games. Now, Adidas hopes to see more retro vs. retro games, such as the Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Buffalo Sabres game on Nov. 2.
This line also features more embroidered and raised elements on the team logos, which is something that arrived when Adidas started making jerseys with 50% recycled materials.
Another big difference was the level of anticipation. Near said that Adidas is aware of all the speculation, mock-ups and social media scuttlebutt about this collection of jerseys.
“We’re excited about the speculation. I think if you look back at the first time we launched in 2020, it came out of nowhere. Nobody knew what it was,” Near said. “We didn’t announce it was coming back this time, but people seemed to know it was coming. The rampant speculation and energy is making this unique and exciting. We track it. We see what people are saying. Sometimes they’re right on the mark. Other times they’re on a completely different planet. Nothing is official until it’s official.”
But it wasn’t just the fans anticipating the next wave of Reverse Retro jerseys. The NHL teams were as well.
“There was plenty of meat on the bone to do this again,” Near said. “What made it unique the second time around is that you have the teams thinking ‘I want to win Reverse Retro.'”
Which ones were victorious? Here is our ranking of the 32 NHL Reverse Retro jerseys for the 2022-23 season. Keep in mind that we based this just on the jerseys themselves — some really cool elements will be revealed with the full uniform kits, but they didn’t factor in here.
What a concept: It’s only taken nearly 30 years, but a team that plays in South Florida finally has a jersey that’s evocative of South Florida.
This is a mix of the team’s stick-and-palm secondary logo that’s been with it since the 1990s and the light blue from the third jerseys it rocked in 2009. The rays of the sun are slightly raised to give the crest a 3D quality. The colors on the stripes pay homage to the Panthers’ current primary colors. The rest feels like you’re staring at a frozen blue Hawaiian through a pair of expensive sunglasses.
Sure, seeing the alternate logo makes one realize how close that hockey stick looks to a golf putter … but that’s also kind of thematic to the franchise, if we’re being honest.
It was inevitable that the Sharks eventually would honor their Bay Area ancestors with a Reverse Retro jersey. The California Golden Seals’ greatest legacy might be their aesthetics, including a turn to teal 17 years before the Sharks swam into the NHL.
These are essentially the Seals’ 1974 home jerseys with “Sharks” written on them instead, and they’re sublime: a little California love, a little Jackie Moon. That Seals team won 19 games. Given what we’ve seen from San Jose this season, perhaps it’s just dressing the part.
The Youppi! of Reverse Retro jerseys.
Montreal claims this is meant to honor its 1979 look, when it won its fourth Stanley Cup in a row. Adidas claims the light blue is “inspired by the city of Montreal colors.” But for the love of Tim Raines and Larry Walker, we know what’s up with these sweaters: It’s the Habs as the Montreal Expos, and we salute them like Andrés Galarraga admiring a home run.
The most remarkable thing about this Reverse Retro Kings jersey, which honors the 40th anniversary of the “Miracle on Manchester,” is that one swears that it has previously existed. But the crown logo in the 1980s was on either a gold or “Forum Blue” jersey.
This is the first time the iconic sweater has been executed in white, and it looks awesome. Bonus points for creating raised gems on the crown for a 3D look.
The Avalanche topped the 2020 rankings with their ode to the Quebec Nordiques. This year’s model could be seen as an homage to the NHL’s Colorado Rockies, but their logo inspiration was the same as this Retro jersey: the Colorado state flag.
Nothing is going to top the remixed Nords sweater. But this looks clean and sharp, and like other Avalanche alternate logos is an improvement over their primary one.
The Golden Knights had a Reverse Retro jersey last year inspired by the now-defunct Wranglers minor league franchise. This time, they’re inspired by a team that doesn’t exist.
This sweater “imagines what a Golden Knights third jersey might have looked like in 1995.” The font and numbering are inspired by vintage hotel signage on the Strip. Oh, and just to make sure you get the full Vegas ostentatiousness: There are hidden glow-in-the-dark stars incorporated in the crest that can be seen in the dark and under a black light.
“When you think about the glitz and glamour of Vegas, it requires a little ingenuity,” Near said.
The Blues chose poorly last season, resurrecting a nauseating jersey design and inexplicably making red the primary color. This time, they understood the assignment.
The Blues’ Reverse Retro is based on a 1966 prototype worn by the team’s ownership a year before the expansion franchise actually hit the ice, which is like giving an Oscar to a teaser trailer. Despite being their second most prominent color, this is the first primarily gold jersey the Blues have worn. It incorporates the light blue seen on their Winter Classic jerseys.
Sound the trumpets: These rule.
This is the most “meta” Reverse Retro jersey in the collection.
In 2020, the Coyotes honored their much-maligned 1998 thirds, which magnified the head of the “kachina jersey” logo, made green the primary color and ceded the waistline to “a painfully obvious desert landscape complete with cacti,” as the Five For Howling blog noted. Their first Reverse Retro jersey swapped the green for purple from the team’s crescent moon alternate logo, and it was one of the best of the lot.
Now they’ve gone Reverse Retro on their Reverse Retro, swapping out the green for sienna, marking “the first time this trending earth tone color has been worn by any NHL team,” according to Adidas. The million-dollar question: Are these supposed to abstractly evoke Arizona State athletics colors or is that simply coincidental?
The Pooh bear has returned!
The Bruins wore this logo 1995-2006 on a third sweater. The blog Stanley Cup of Chowder called it “the greatest jersey in Bruins history.” The Pooh bear was originally featured on a gold jersey. This time it’s a white background, all the better to see the kind eyes, parted hair and Marchand-esque smirk on the bear’s fuzzy mug. Put one on and snuggle up with a pot of honey.
I once asked comics artist Todd McFarlane about creating this logo, which Edmonton used as a third jersey from 2001 through 2007.
“What’s the design I could do that could pay homage to the Oilers but also just be cool to look at?” he pondered. “Selling it to someone in Edmonton is preaching to the choir. How do I sell it to someone in Miami?”
We’re not sure how it played in Florida, but its initial run in Edmonton wasn’t unanimously beloved. But this version might be an improvement.
His “dynamic gear surrounding an oil drop” logo has been enhanced by being raised in some areas and with that splash of orange in the middle. Each spoke represents a different Oilers Stanley Cup championship, and sadly that hasn’t needed to be edited since it debuted in 2001.
The Islanders have slowly reclaimed the ill-fated legacy of the “Fishsticks” logo that reigned 1995-97, selling gear with that logo and color scheme in their official store in recent years.
For the team’s 50th anniversary, Adidas has added “the most requested uniform” for its Reverse Retro series.
Here’s the thing: The slight modifications they’ve made to the logo — like the Tron-esque orange highlights and the current color scheme — tone down the kitsch and the charm. One could argue the original Fishsticks jersey’s Aquafresh palette and queasy waves are more in keeping with the Reverse Retro aesthetic.
There’s an interesting separation between Canucks fans and outsiders when it comes to this Reverse Retro jersey. It’s inspired by their Western Hockey League look that featured Johnny Canuck, only this one has raised embroidered gloves and suspenders.
But the Canucks Army blog notes that Vancouver fans (A) feel this look is too close to that of the Abbotsford Canucks, who also use Johnny Canuck, and (B) were hoping for a less predictable experiment, like “a green and blue edition of the Flying Vee or Flying Skate jerseys.”
In 1995, the Capitals went from red, white and blue to blue, black and bronze. They had a black third jersey for 10 years during that fad, with the Capitol dome logo seen on the shoulders of this Reverse Retro jersey.
Now they’ve turned the “Screaming Eagle” into another black alternate sweater, with some really nice tweaks to the formula. This jersey features metallic copper and “Capital Blue,” giving the whole thing a sleeker look.
You can’t improve on perfection, which is why the Red Wings’ first Reverse Retro attempt looked like a practice version of their iconic sweater. But give the Red Wings credit for taking a swing with version 2.0.
An homage to their 1991 NHL 75th anniversary jerseys, which were red and white, this bold red and black look is accented by a DETROIT wordmark inspired by the 1920s Detroit Cougars. For a young team developing its swagger, we’ll allow it.
This Ducks jersey is cool. It’s clean looking. It’s got the proper logo on the front. They’re going to slap “ZEGRAS” on the back of these and move racks of them.
But after much debate inside the ESPN fashion offices, we came to a consensus: If Anaheim is dipping back to the inaugural Mighty Ducks season and its Reverse Retro doesn’t have even a hint of jade or eggplant, then what is it even doing this for?
The Rangers finished No. 2 on the 2020 rankings by simply bringing back to the Liberty Head logo for the first time since around 2007. They went back to that well for this Reverse Retro jersey, slapping it on a royal blue jersey with red sleeves.
The whole thing honestly feels like one of those sweatshirts that costs $50 more than it should and hangs untouched with its friends in some distant corner of the NHL Store.
ROBO PENGUIN! Memories of Mario Lemieux, Jaromir Jagr and Petr Nedved come rushing back as we celebrate the majesty of this flightless fowl.
But we had to assess some demerits for what could have been: This is the Penguins’ 1992-93 jersey flipped from white to black, leaving out some of the more audacious Robo Penguin gradient designs from the latter part of the decade. It’s a jersey that thinks the 1990s stopped with grunge, when “Bills, Bills, Bills” actually dropped in 1999.
The most interesting aspect of this Stars jersey, which is an homage to their inaugural season look back in 1993-94, is the dimensional embroidery on the crest to give the star a 3D quality.
Otherwise, the current “victory green” color integrated with this classic design makes for a fine-looking sweater. But we’re now two Reverse Retro jerseys deep and the “Mooterus” has yet to return, so we really can’t go any higher than this for Dallas.
The Jets’ first Reverse Retro jersey was one of our favorites, but this one isn’t nearly as bold.
Winnipeg remixed the Jets 1.0 jersey from 1990 with the team’s current color palette, minus the red. A great sweater for Teemu Selanne completists but one that doesn’t come close to the streetwear grandeur of the previous Retro hit.
More debate inside the ESPN fashion offices on this one.
The Devils pay tribute to the Colorado Rockies 40 years after the team relocated from Denver to East Rutherford. It’s certainly a fun look, with the Rockies’ gold, red and navy accenting the jersey. But we’re a little disappointed that the color scheme carries through to the logo only via a blue circle around the “NJ,” when this could have been a fun opportunity to play around with that logo.
As it stands, this sorta looks like when a pro shop irons the right crest on the wrong jersey.
“Say, kids, did you like the Minnesota North Stars-influenced Reverse Retro jersey? What if we told you that it’s now available in … green?”
Seriously, no points for creativity, but these remain pretty dope.
Inspired by Chicago’s 1938 uniforms and the team’s 2019 Winter Classic gear, this Blackhawks jersey had the unfortunate timing of being immediately market-corrected by a similar — but much better executed — Red Wings Reverse Retro.
Sorry, but this just doesn’t work. The “goat head” logo loses its magic when stripped away from the red, black and silver color scheme that evoked images of Dominik Hasek saves and Miroslav Satan goals.
Outside of the nostalgic kick of having this logo back on a Buffalo sweater, applying the traditional Sabres colors to it feels slightly blasphemous.
What’s a nostalgic Kraken jersey? A Mark Giordano sweater?
Obviously lacking history, Seattle just decided to make a sea green jersey that makes it look like they’re wearing a cummerbund under their own logo. It’s not a bad looking sweater. It’s just not as audacious as one might expect from a team nicknamed after a mythical sea creature. It’s a Reverse Retro with real “Why don’t we make our mascot a troll doll?” energy.
Missed opportunity here. There was speculation that the Predators were going to put their 2001 third jersey logo on a navy jersey, which would have properly remixed their mustard stain sweater with a currently used color.
Alas, they went with gold, making this jersey practically redundant with their current ones.
It’s their current away jersey remixed into a red sweater, with two sets of hurricane warning flags on the shoulders.
Your mileage here is entirely dependent on how you feel about nicknames on jerseys instead of full nicknames.
Adidas says this is a remix of the jersey the Senators wore during their 2006-07 Stanley Cup Final run with “the current Ottawa color scheme and breakouts.”
Sure. It’s very much an Ottawa Senators jersey. But we’ll wait and see the full kit, as Adidas notes these Ottawa jerseys will be “presented in a powerful black head-to-toe visual including the helmet, pant and sock” complemented by “a thick super-sized player name and number system.”
The Blue Jackets got a little funky last time with a primary red jersey that sported their original logo. This is the first black jersey the Jackets will have worn, with blue sleeve accents that evoke their current third sweaters.
These FrankenJerseys are on the borderline of looking like a stitching accident, but in the end we like our jerseys like we like our steaks: black and blue. But maybe not as cold.
Toronto is honoring its 1962 Stanley Cup championship, remixing a primary white jersey into a primary blue jersey with white shoulder pads.
A blue Maple Leafs jersey. Wild stuff. Save us, Justin Bieber.
Have you ever seen a movie where one bad performance ruins the whole thing? The Flames have a cool black jersey, with an iconic logo and an eye-catching color scheme.
They also decided to bring back the truly bizarre “diagonal pedestal hem stripe” from their mid-1990s sweaters.
It just ruins the whole thing and makes it look as if the Flames are wearing an achievement belt from a strip mall taekwondo academy.
“I don’t want my guys looking like a [expletive] crayon box. I don’t want them wearing a bunch of whozies and whatsits. Just make a Flyers jersey. Who cares?” — John Tortorella, maybe.
Nostalgia can be comforting. Nostalgia can be inspiring. But nostalgia can also cloud one’s judgement on what should or should not be mined from the past for the benefit of the present.
To that end: These Lightning jerseys should have remained buried under whatever landfill in which they were decomposing. Tampa Bay wore these jerseys 1996-99, during a time when the NHL had its share of ghastly third jerseys. They had storm waves across the waist; lightning bolts on the sleeves; and, in perhaps the single worst aesthetic touch for an NHL jersey in the past 30 years, “bold rain” flecked across the front of the sweater that looked as if it was taken straight from an 8-bit video game.
Whatever Lightning player feigns excitement the most for these monstrosities should win the Lady Byng, full stop.
Dan Near of Adidas offers a brief rebuttal about this jersey: “There were some jerseys from that era that we presented and the teams weren’t excited about. There were others that the teams embraced right away. This isn’t a permanent choice. This is a celebration of a moment in time and the nostalgia about a team. Maybe we don’t have to take ourselves so seriously and bring something back that might have been polarizing but that in today’s day and age is very trend-right. I give a lot of acclaim to the Lightning for making a risk well worth taking.”
Cranberry, Pa. – As Evgeni Malkin sits in an empty locker room at the Penguins practice facility, being interviewed for a story about his longtime teammate Sidney Crosby, the 39-year-old Russian center makes a point for emphasis.
“You see security here?” Malkin says, motioning to the Penguins’ detail, standing discreetly in the doorway. “It’s like, not my security. It’s Sidney Crosby’s security.”
Malkin’s résumé certainly warrants the celebrity treatment: Calder Trophy, Hart Trophy, two scoring titles and, of course, three Stanley Cups in a nine-year span that brought the Penguins back to glory.
But nobody on the Penguins — or perhaps the entire hockey world — can match Crosby’s star power. The captain’s reputation, let alone his list of on-ice accomplishments, is pristine. “You never heard one bad thing about Sidney Crosby,” said Kris Letang, the other member of Pittsburgh’s big three. “He’s perfect. He’s the perfect ambassador for the game.”
It’s why, ahead of Crosby’s 21st season in the NHL, there has been so much discourse about what his future might hold — and whether one of hockey’s most transcendent talents is wasting his final chapter holding on to what he once had in Pittsburgh.
Not only is Crosby’s production absurd (1,687 points in 1,352 career games and counting) but few players in hockey history have remained this consistent and this competitive as they enter their career twilight. While playing his sound two-way game, Crosby scored 91 points (33 goals, 58 assists) in 80 games this past season, leading the Penguins by 21 points. In an NHLPA poll released in April, Crosby was voted by his peers as the “most complete player” in the game — for the sixth straight season.
Edmonton Oilers star Connor McDavid at age 28 — a full decade younger than Crosby — is in the prime of his career. But he still defers to Crosby. McDavid advocated for Crosby to captain Team Canada at last February’s 4 Nations Face-Off, calling it a “no-brainer.”
“He hasn’t seemed to change at all,” McDavid said last fall. “He has been great year after year. It’s so impressive to see someone I grew up admiring still doing it to this day.”
Crosby has once again been able to play meaningful games on the international stage, which should include NHL players’ long-anticipated return to the Olympics this February, where he will likely captain Team Canada again.
The Penguins’ prognosis, however, is not as bright. Pittsburgh’s 16-year Stanley Cup playoffs streak ended in 2023, and the Penguins haven’t returned since. GM Kyle Dubas has been embarking on a rebuild, restocking a prospect pool that was essentially barren, with so many draft picks and young players traded away in order to chase championships. Pittsburgh’s opening night roster will feature five rookies, led by a first-time head coach, Dan Muse, who is just five years older than Crosby. They are loading up for the future.
“We’re in a period of transition, and our goal is, and the expectation is, we’re going to get to the point where we’re not just contenders again, but it’s gonna be contending on a consistent basis,” Muse said. “It’s not just get back into the playoffs; it’s to be a true contender, and then to stay there. And I think that’s been extremely clear to me from day one. And that message has been consistent in the time prior, until now.”
Nobody knows how long that plan will take — including the Penguins. It’s dictated by a series of factors, including development.
Meanwhile Crosby’s performance at 4 Nations (he tied McDavid for the team lead with five points in four games as Canada won the tournament) punctuated how exciting it is to see the 38-year-old on hockey’s most competitive stages still.
Some people around Crosby have tried to advocate that it’s a disservice to hockey to stick around for a rebuild with no end in sight. That includes Crosby’s longtime agent, Pat Brisson, who has said publicly that it’s his personal belief that Crosby needs to be playing playoff hockey.
For his part, Crosby maintains tunnel vision. That might sound like lip service for most people, but not Crosby, whose determination is fueled by details and an obsession for routine. He said his mindset every season is the same — an approach that prepares him to play in June. He maintains that he hasn’t seriously considered a trade to this point.
“I know that if all my energy isn’t towards what it needs to be, then I’m not giving myself the best chance for it to be successful,” Crosby said. “If it ever came to that point, I would discuss it, but I don’t feel like I’m there.”
Crosby’s two-year extension he signed summer 2024 kicks in this season. It’s extremely team friendly: $8.7 million average annual value, perhaps half of what he could receive on the open market. It’s also an extremely tradable contract — and all the cards belong to Crosby, who has a full no-movement clause. League sources believe the Penguins would never approach Crosby to waive it, out of deference to him. A trade would have to be Crosby driven. He would choose the time, and he would choose the destination. The Penguins would need to get compensation they felt is fair. And it all likely would go down quietly.
Or it might not happen at all. Crosby’s future is entirely in his hands. He wants to win again as badly as anyone — but in Pittsburgh. To this point in his career, he has demonstrated incredible loyalty to Pittsburgh, as well as his teammates. That’s especially true with Malkin and Letang; they are longest-tenured trio of teammates in major North American sports history
“He’s a very special person for me, because he’s probably my best friend here in Pittsburgh,” Malkin said. “First guy I met when I went to Pittsburgh, I go to dinner with Mario [Lemieux] and Sid. And after, we’re always together. I mean, he texts me all summer, you know? He texts me during season, we try to support each other. It’s not always perfect, you know? Sometimes, like, we need to understand each other. Some guys have problem with, like, games, with families, you know? Like — and he asks me, like — all the time like, ‘If you need anything, come to my house.'”
Malkin enters the final year of his contract and trade speculation is sure to ramp up around his name as well. As the Penguins opened camp, Malkin said he hopes it won’t be his last season in Pittsburgh, but admitted that would be dependent on both how he and the team play. Malkin scored 16 goals and 50 points in 68 games this past season. Letang is signed through 2028.
Another name to watch this season will be Bryan Rust, Crosby’s winger on the top line. Rust is signed through the next three seasons. The 33-year-old is happy in Pittsburgh and wants to stay. However, he doesn’t have trade protection. If the Penguins get a good enough offer — a package that could accelerate the rebuild — Rust could be traded away just like Jake Guentzel two years ago.
It’s not just friendships on the ice for Crosby that tie him to Pittsburgh: it’s relationships with the community.
“We have the children’s hospital visit that we do once a year with the entire team. There’s tons of cameras,” Letang said. “But he’s also going to go see patients in a different hospital and that’s completely off radar. And, you know, I was a witness because he asked me to come with him one year and see what he was doing.”
Youth hockey in Pittsburgh has exploded since Crosby’s arrival. The Little Penguins Learn to Play program Crosby launched in 2008 has introduced thousands of kids to the sport. Crosby and the city are in a long-term relationship that truly has benefitted them both.
“I still remember my first day going there, getting to the airport, coming down the escalators, and just it was packed,” Crosby said. “To have that kind of welcoming, and then just, right from arriving at the rink to living with Mario, just so many amazing first impressions, but then great memories since. It’s been a long time I’ve been there, and I couldn’t be more grateful that it worked out the way it has and that I was drafted there.”
Those close to Crosby say the distinction of wearing only one jersey is something he strongly considers. When Los Angeles Kings captain Anze Kopitar announced his retirement after this season, he noted playing his entire career in one city was a major point of pride for him.
However, there’s a counterpoint: Tom Brady. His reputation in New England is still as its all-time franchise legend. But after 20 years, he signed with the Buccaneers and was able to finish out his career with another championship there, too.
So, it comes down to the question: What motivates Crosby at this point?
“As you play, if you still have the passion, I think you find different things that motivate you,” Crosby said. “This year is obviously an Olympic year, so you know, that’s a big motivation. But as far as just in general, I think the motivation is just to be my best. You know, whatever that is, you know, regardless of age and expectations, all that. I always just try to be my best, and that’s enough for me.”
Malkin took it a step further.
“I think he mentally wants to show every year he can play 100%,” Malkin said. “And mentality, like, maybe one more cup, you know? We want to win together again. Because last cup, like, 10 years ago.”
In fact, it has only been eight years since the Penguins last won. But for an all-time great, that can feel like forever.
The SEC is eating up half the spots in the latest College Football Playoff top 12 projection — and Texas isn’t even taking up one of them.
The Longhorns are out following their loss to Florida in the Swamp. Penn State is out following an embarrassing loss at once-winless UCLA. Florida State is out after a second loss, this time to rival Miami.
Which means new teams can get in.
Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into four groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. Teams listed as On the cusp are the true bubble teams and the first ones outside the bracket. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.
The 13-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to date.
Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Spotlight: LSU. The Tigers came back into the conversation this week, in part because Penn State tumbled out and opened a spot. They ranked No. 12 in our projection. If the playoff were today, though, the committee’s No. 12 team would get knocked out of the field during the seeding process to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. If LSU is going to truly legitimize itself in the playoff race, it has to move up into a top-10 spot, which is the safest place to be. That’s not going to be easy, considering LSU has the 10th-most-difficult remaining schedule, according to ESPN Analytics. The metrics give LSU the 10th-best chance in the SEC to reach the conference championship game (4.4%). Saturday’s game against South Carolina is critical because the next three opponents (No. 20 Vandy, No. 5 Texas A&M and No. 8 Alabama) are ranked, and two of the three games are on the road. If LSU is going to be a factor in the postseason, it has to improve its running game and its big-play capabilities. The run game ranks 119th in the country with 104.8 yards per game, and LSU is No. 103 in plays over 20 yards (18).
The enigma: Missouri. We’ll learn more about the undefeated Tigers on Saturday when they host Alabama, but as of right now, their best wins are against Kansas and South Carolina. They’ve got the No. 3 running game in the country (292 yards per game), and lead the country in third-down conversion percentage (61.6%). Defensively, they’re fundamentally sound, leading the country with only 20 missed tackles. Can they maintain this success against a ranked opponent? The Tigers have the seventh-most-difficult remaining schedule, according to ESPN Analytics. They’re about to enter their season-defining stretch, and they had a bye week to prepare for the Tide. After that, it’s back-to-back road trips to Auburn and Vandy. This month will determine how seriously to take Mizzou.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M
On the cusp: LSU
Work to do: Missouri, Vanderbilt
Would be out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Texas
Big Ten
Spotlight: Michigan. The Wolverines have won three straight games since the Week 2 road loss at Oklahoma, and they’re growing along with freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood. According to ESPN Analytics, Michigan currently has the fourth-best chance to reach the Big Ten title game (22.5%) behind Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana, but the latter two play each other Saturday. If Michigan can win at USC on Saturday, the picture begins to change, but ESPN’s FPI gives USC a 68.5% chance to win. If Michigan loses, it would be in a must-win situation against rival Ohio State in the regular-season finale to avoid a third loss and have a chance at an at-large bid. (That is assuming, of course, that Michigan doesn’t stumble along the way to sneaky good teams such as Washington and Maryland.) The Wolverines have one of the nation’s top rushing offenses and defenses heading into USC. Speaking of the Trojans …
The enigma: USC. Can the Trojans play four quarters against a ranked opponent? USC was undefeated heading into Illinois on Sept. 27, and couldn’t finish in a 34-32 loss. They get the Wolverines at home before heading to rival Notre Dame on Oct. 18. A win against Michigan would give USC a much-needed cushion, considering its two toughest remaining games — Notre Dame and Nov. 22 at Oregon — are on the road. USC’s defense has allowed at least 30 points in each of the past two games. The selection committee won’t penalize USC for a close road loss to a decent Illinois team, but it will be looking for statement wins, and right now the Trojans don’t have one.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
On the cusp: Michigan
Work to do: Illinois, Maryland, Nebraska, USC, Washington
Would be out: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
ACC
Spotlight: Georgia Tech. The undefeated Yellow Jackets are one missed call from being in the “work to do” category below. Officials missed a critical offsides penalty Sept. 27 at Wake Forest, helping Georgia Tech drive down the field for a game-tying field goal before winning in overtime. The selection committee members will know this situation and consider it during their discussions. The Jackets are here because of their realistic chance to reach the ACC title game — not their résumé, which doesn’t include any wins against ranked opponents, and that might continue, as none of their remaining ACC opponents is currently ranked. Rival Georgia will be Georgia Tech’s best chance to impress the selection committee for an at-large bid if the Jackets don’t win the ACC. They’re good enough, though, to be undefeated heading into the Georgia game, which could make things interesting. Right now ESPN’s FPI projects the Jackets to win each remaining game except against Duke and Georgia. That’s why ESPN Analytics is showing Georgia Tech has the fourth-best chance (18.6%) in the league to reach the ACC title game behind Miami, Duke and Virginia. If Georgia Tech doesn’t lock up a spot as the ACC champ, the committee will have a significant debate about the Jackets as a two-loss ACC runner-up (loss in ACC title game and to Georgia) with no statement wins.
The enigma: Virginia. First the Cavaliers caught the nation’s attention with the Friday night spotlight win against Florida State, and then they eked out an overtime road win against Louisville. Now they’ve got the third-best chance to reach the ACC title game (45.3%), according to ESPN Analytics. That’s because ESPN’s FPI projects Virginia to lose at Duke on Nov. 15, its toughest remaining game. Virginia is similar to Georgia Tech in that it’s unlikely to face any ranked conference opponents the rest of the season, but it doesn’t have a big-time nonconference opponent to help compensate for that. So if the Hoos don’t win the ACC, that Week 2 loss at NC State could come back to haunt them as a two-loss conference runner-up. Virginia fans should be cheering for FSU to run the table because the more the Noles win, the better that Sept. 26 win against them looks.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Miami
On the cusp: Georgia Tech
Work to do: Virginia
Would be out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big 12
Spotlight: BYU. The undefeated Cougars are here because they’re on a collision course with Texas Tech to play for the Big 12 title. According to ESPN Analytics, BYU has the second-best chance to reach the Big 12 championship game (43%) behind the Red Raiders (67.3%). This will get settled on the field before then, as those teams play each other Nov. 8 at Texas Tech. It’s currently the only game on the Cougars’ schedule that ESPN’s FPI gives them less than a 50% chance to win. Even if BYU loses that game, if it’s the Cougars’ only loss, they could face Texas Tech again in the league championship. BYU would lock up a spot with the Big 12 title, but two losses to the Red Raiders would likely knock them out as the conference runner-up. That depends, though, on how many Big 12 opponents are ranked by the selection committee.
The enigma: Arizona State. The close road loss to a much-improved Mississippi State team isn’t as bad as it might have seemed (though the Bulldogs have had a dose of reality with back-to-back losses to Tennessee and Texas A&M). The Sun Devils have won three straight games since that Sept. 6 loss, knocking off Baylor and TCU to reposition themselves near the top of the Big 12 standings again. The question is whether the defending conference champs are good enough to repeat. The season-defining stretch begins Saturday at Utah, followed by home games against Texas Tech and Houston before heading to Iowa State ahead of the first CFP ranking Nov. 4. ESPN’s FPI projects ASU will lose three of those next four.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Texas Tech
On the cusp: BYU
Work to do: Arizona, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa State, TCU, Utah
Would be out: Baylor, Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, UCF, West Virginia
Independent
Would be out: Notre Dame. The Irish have a case to be the selection committee’s top two-loss team, and they’re doing everything right to make the slow climb back into the conversation. No team in the country has a better chance to win out than Notre Dame (42.2%), according to ESPN Analytics. One of the biggest criticisms of the Irish in their back-to-back season-opening losses was the defense, which had allowed Texas A&M 41 points, but Notre Dame hasn’t allowed more than 13 in each of its past two wins. Notre Dame’s toughest remaining game will be on Oct. 18 against rival USC, but the Irish get the Trojans at home. If Notre Dame can finish 10-2 it won’t be a lock, but its playoff chances will skyrocket.
Group of 5
Spotlight: Memphis. As the projected winner of the American this week, Memphis would earn the No. 12 seed at LSU’s expense. The undefeated (Memphis) Tigers have a win against a beleaguered Arkansas team that’s helping push their strength of record to No. 18 in the country — a slight edge over No. 19 South Florida, but all of the other Group of 5 contenders aren’t far behind. This will settle itself on the field, as Memphis plays South Florida on Oct. 25, Tulane on Nov. 7 and Navy on Nov. 27. Memphis still has the best chance to win the American (45.9%), according to ESPN Analytics. The Tigers also have the best chance of any Group of 5 team to reach the CFP (38.4%).
The enigma: UNLV. The Rebels are undefeated and have done something Penn State could not — beat UCLA. UNLV has the edge against Boise State following the Broncos’ second loss in Week 6, but those two teams will face each other Oct. 18 at Boise State. They’re also projected to meet again in the Mountain West Conference title game. Boise State (45.1%) still has the best chance to win the league, with UNLV (33.8%) a close second. According to ESPN Analytics, UNLV has the fifth-best chance to reach the CFP (9.5%).
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Memphis
Work to do: Navy, North Texas, Old Dominion, South Florida, Tulane, UNLV
Bracket
Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Oregon
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Ole Miss
No. 11 Tennessee at No. 6 Alabama
No. 10 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 7 Oklahoma
No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Georgia
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Tennessee/No. 6 Alabama winner vs. No. 3 Oregon
No. 10 Texas Tech/No. 7 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Indiana/No. 8 Georgia winner vs. No. 1 Miami
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