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It could be all over on Monday or the Conservatives may be about to mesmerise the nation with another round of vicious infighting.

The Conservative Party rules can’t be changed. They are that Conservative MPs draw up a shortlist of two candidates from their number.

The 180,000 paid-up and unelected party members then choose between them. Less than half of those eligible to vote actually voted for Liz Truss last time but they still overruled the MPs’ preference and saddled the nation with a prime minister who lasted less than 50 days.

Three names emerge in Tory leadership contest – politics latest

Sir Graham Brady and the executive of the 1922 Committee of backbenchers have done what they can to try to stop it happening again by changing the way MPs draw up the shortlist. It is possible that the MPs will present the membership with a fait accompli early next week.

After the bumpy ride for the country and their party under Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, senior Tory backbenchers have done what they can to ensure an orderly transition to an orthodox candidate: most likely Rishi Sunak or Penny Mordaunt, who were the runners-up in the last contest which, amazingly, elected Ms Truss less than two months ago.

As things stand, however, there is a chance that these best laid plans could go awry, resulting in Britain ending up with another “disrupter” prime minister drawn from an unrepresentative band of populist libertarians.

How will Tories pick the new PM?

Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak
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Rishi Sunak lost to Liz Truss in the last Tory leadership contest

The ’22 have set the threshold for nominations high. To enter the contest, a candidate will need to gather written backing from 100 fellow Tory MPs over this weekend. That is five times higher than the 20 required last time and has the desired effect of limiting the field to a maximum of three candidates since there are only 357 Conservatives in the Commons.

Nominations will close at 2pm on Monday. MPs will then vote, with the results declared at 6pm. Theoretically, that may not be necessary. It is possible that only one candidate – Rishi Sunak, the runaway favourite – will get enough nominations. He would then win by a walkover, similiar to the way Gordon Brown took over the premiership from Tony Blair.

How the Tory Party changes its leader

Nominating someone is more potent than just voting for them. Remember the charity nominations Margaret Beckett and other “morons”, her words not mine, gave Jeremy Corbyn so he could run. This time MPs might decide that Mr Sunak is going to win anyway, so for a quiet life and possibly currying favour with the new boss they could give him a key to No 10.

But in the final round this summer, Mr Sunak led with 137 votes, to 113 for Ms Truss and 105 for Penny Mordaunt. Ms Mordaunt wants to run again and is scrabbling for her base to nominate her. In polls this summer she was more popular with Tory voters than Mr Sunak. She would prefer a straight fight with Mr Sunak, whether that comes about because only she and he are nominated or because they beat a possible third candidate in an initial vote.

The expected timeline of events in electing a new PM

If there are two candidates left for the membership to choose from, there will be an online ballot of the membership next week, with the result declared on Friday. Before that, the ’22 have already said that there will be “an indicative vote” between them first by MPs. The purpose of this is to send a powerful and unambiguous message to the membership about whom MPs want as leader. In choosing Ms Truss last time they went against the MPs’ first preference of Sunak.

If Mr Sunak and Ms Mordaunt are the final two, they could still take the decision out of the membership’s hands by agreeing that one who has least backing from MPs withdraw in favour of the one with most, allowing him or her to become prime minister. They would also both commit in advance to serve in the same cabinet and to keep Jeremy Hunt as chancellor .

Read more:
Resignations, reversals and rebellion – the 44 days of Liz Truss’s premiership
It’s hard to see how new PM will stop the rot – Beth Rigby analysis

Will Johnson derail the smooth transition?

Boris Johnson outside Number 10 on 6 September, the day he handed over power to Liz Truss Pic: AP

Such a smooth transition would be derailed if there is a third candidate with 100 nominations.

All eyes are on Boris Johnson, who is said, like Donald Trump, to want a comeback. If, and it is a big if, he gets on to the starting grid, there could be a stampede of MPs who might decide he looks like a vote winner and put him into the second round against either Ms Mordaunt or Mr Sunak.

His chances of victory and re-election by the membership would be very high. He is popular and he is the only candidate who can claim a personal mandate, having led the party to victory in the 2019 general election.

But, but, but.

Tory MPs and cabinet ministers turfed out Mr Johnson this summer for serial dishonesty and sending others out to lie on his behalf. Jacob Rees-Mogg, Nadine Dorries and a few diehards may be calling on him to return but he has never been loved by the rank and file of the parliamentary party, who control the nominations. Nor does he fit snuggly with the libertarian, UKIP-style entryists of the European Research Group, who are now fighting a rear-guard action to preserve their influence in the party.

There are obvious efforts by Johnson supporters in parliament and the media to talk him up this weekend. But his shooting star support from some MPs could easily plateau short of 100 nominations. If so, having drawn attention to himself yet again, Mr Johnson would most likely return to his less demanding, more lucrative exertions on the US lecture circuit.

Could an unlikely outsider emerge?

Attorney General Suella Braverman during a regional cabinet meeting at Middleport Pottery in Stoke on Trent. Picture date: Thursday May 12, 2022.

If it is not Mr Johnson, someone else could emerge as the third challenger.

Suella Braverman fancies her chances and her sacking as Ms Truss’s home secretary positions her to rally the right. Kemi Badenoch also has high ambitions.

Fortunately for Ms Mordaunt or Mr Sunak, Jeremy Hunt and Ben Wallace have both ruled themselves out of the race. It is unlikely anyone else would be able to muster 100 nominating signatures.

Shell-shocked Tory MPs do not want to take the risk of taking a punt on another incoherent or incompetent leader. They want a well-known figure with a proven track record to steady the ship.

In the ultimate reckoning, this is likely to count against Ms Mordaunt. At 49, she is older than Mr Sunak, 42, and has been in parliament five years longer, since 2010. But she has served barely two years as a cabinet minister.

Mr Sunak by contrast has three years in cabinet under his belt, two of them as the chancellor who piloted the economy through COVID.

MPs have the future of the nation in their hands. One option would be to open the door to the return of the discredited individual they kicked out a few months ago. Or they could shut him out for good and opt for a technocrat.

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Lucy Hargreaves was shot dead in 2005 – her home set on fire. A suspect in her murder is still at large

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Lucy Hargreaves was shot dead in 2005 - her home set on fire. A suspect in her murder is still at large

Britain’s most-wanted fugitive is still on the run – exactly 20 years after the fatal shooting of a young mother of three.

Kevin Parle is a suspect in the murder of Lucy Hargreaves, 22, who was shot dead at her home in Liverpool before the house was set on fire on 3 August 2005.

Since then, after many appeals for information, there has been no confirmed sighting, word or trace of him.

Two decades on, Ms Hargreaves’ family have had no justice. Two young men prosecuted for her murder had charges dropped when a judge ruled there was insufficient evidence against them.

In a statement marking the anniversary of her death, they said: “The way we lost Lucy is not something families can ever truly come to terms with – it is still incredibly difficult and painful to think about.

“Over the past 20 years, people will have talked with family and friends. A number of people were contacted by males using a phone that was stolen along with a vehicle used in Lucy’s murder.

“We appeal directly to them to please come forward. Now is the time.”

Kevin Parle age progression prediction pics
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Police prediction of how Kevin Parle has aged since 2005. Pic: Merseyside Police

Three men burst into Lucy’s home 20 years ago today, shot her dead as she slept on a sofa, and set alight the duvet she’d been sleeping under.

It’s believed the gang were looking for her boyfriend Gary Campbell, who was upstairs. He fled from a window with their two-year-old daughter and then tried in vain to save Ms Hargreaves.

Mr Campbell had allegedly been a passenger in a stolen car that had hit and killed a young boy 12 years earlier, supposedly the motive for the shooting. He denied he was in the car at the time.

Lucy Hargreaves with her three children
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Ms Hargreaves with her three children

Howard Rubbery, head of the Serious Crime Review Unit at Merseyside Police said: “The family remain absolutely devastated by Lucy’s death.

“It’s important to note Lucy is an absolutely innocent victim. She’s not from a family of criminality. She wasn’t involved in criminality.

“The hunt for Kevin Parle is very much on, and we ask anybody with information, anybody who is close to Parle and knows where he is, to please come forward.

“There were three males responsible for this offence and we are looking for justice for Lucy’s family in relation to all three.

“I do believe that there are people out there who have yet to speak to the police, even though it’s 20 years on, who hold information that’s absolutely vital to our investigation.”

Police believe Parle, now in his 40s, fled to Spain where he hid among the vast expat community with criminal help.

Several years later, I tracked his movements to a holiday complex near Torrevieja, where staff convinced me he had stayed there for several weeks.

Former Scotland Yard detective Peter Bleksley
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Former detective Peter Bleksley says Parle is being protected

‘Huge value to organised crime’

Former Scotland Yard detective Peter Bleksley, who recently spent four years on a personal hunt for Parle, also visited the complex and said: “He was bold and he was brash and he had a girlfriend at one point.

“The police actually should have captured him there, but they were too late.”

He claimed he nearly caught up with Parle at a villa elsewhere in Spain, but spooked him into disappearing again.

Mr Bleksley hosted an award-winning podcast and wrote a book in which he chronicled his manhunt.

He said: “Kevin Parle has remained hidden because he is funded, protected, looked after and of huge value to global, serious and organised crime.”

Parle can’t be hard to spot – he’s well-built, 6ft 5in tall, red-haired with a face scar and, originally at least, has a Liverpool accent. Of course, he might be dead.

Mr Bleksley said: “I can think of many reasons why certain criminals would want to get rid of Kevin Parle because he could, in terms of evidence about the cases that he’s wanted for, should he flip and become a witness for the Crown, be highly damaging for a lot of very tasty criminals.”

16-year-old Liam Kelly
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16-year-old Liam Kelly was shot dead a year before Ms Hargreaves. Pic: Merseyside Police

Parle is also wanted in connection with the murder of 16-year-old Liam Kelly, who was shot dead over an alleged £200 debt in June 2004, a year before Lucy’s death. Parle was arrested and questioned, but then freed on bail.

There have been reports of the fugitive in Australia and Dubai, but nothing to corroborate any of them.

If he’s alive and if no one is prepared to shop him, what might lead to his capture?

“I think when he has a fallout with those who have guarded him, funded him, fed him, put a roof over his head and all of that, maybe even paid for his plastic surgery that could have altered his appearance,” Mr Bleksley said.

“When he finally has a fallout, when he’s no longer of use, then perhaps that will be the day that somebody goes, Peter, he’s here.”

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Rival groups face off outside migrant hotel – as asylum seekers ‘blow kisses’ at protesters

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Rival groups face off outside migrant hotel - as asylum seekers 'blow kisses' at protesters

Several demonstrators have been detained after rival groups faced off over a hotel accommodating asylum seekers in north London, with police breaking up brief clashes.

The Metropolitan Police has since imposed conditions on the protest and counter-protest outside the Thistle City Barbican Hotel in Islington.

The protest was organised by local residents under the banner “Thistle Barbican needs to go – locals say no”.

The group of several hundred people waved union flags and banners, and one man chanted: “Get these scum off our streets.”

Anti-immigration protesters outside the Thistle City Barbican Hotel in central London, which houses asylum seekers. Pic: PA
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Anti-immigration protesters waved Union Jack flags. Pic: PA

A larger group staged a counter demonstration to voice support for asylum seekers, bearing a banner that read: “Refugees are welcome.”

People inside the hotel, believed to be migrants, watched on, with some waving and blowing kisses from the windows.

More on Migrant Crossings

People believed to be asylum seekers waved from the windows of Thistle City Barbican Hotel. Pic: PA
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People believed to be asylum seekers waved the hotel windows. Pic: PA

Pro-immigration protesters gather outside the Thistle City Barbican Hotel in central London, which houses asylum seekers. Pic: PA
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Pro-immigration protesters gathered by the Thistle City Barbican Hotel. Pic: PA

A man wearing an England football shirt was detained by police after getting into an altercation with officers.

There have been nine arrests so far, seven of which were for breaching conditions police put on the protests under the Public Order Act.

Rival groups separated by police

Another protest was scheduled in Newcastle on Saturday, outside The New Bridge Hotel, as anti-migrant sentiment ripples through some communities around the country, also flaring up recently in Epping.

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Last week: Protesters divided over migrant hotels

The counter-protest in London was organised by local branches of Stand Up To Racism, and supported by former Labour leader and Islington North MP Jeremy Corbyn.

Other community groups including Finsbury Park Mosque and Islington Labour Party were also involved.

Groups online that backed the original protest include “Patriots of Britain” and “Together for the Children”.

At one point, a large group of masked protesters dressed in black, calling themselves anti-fascists, appeared from a side street and marched towards the rival group outside the hotel.

The two groups briefly clashed before police rushed in to separate them.

Masked protesters gather outside the Thistle City Barbican Hotel in central London, which houses asylum seekers. Pic: PA
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Pic: PA

Supporters of local protest group "Thistle Barbican needs to go - locals say no" gathering outside the Thistle City Barbican Hotel. Pic: PA
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Supporters of local protest group ‘Thistle Barbican needs to go – locals say no’. Pic: PA

Why are asylum hotels used?

The government is legally required to provide accommodation and subsistence to destitute asylum seekers while their claims are being decided, most of whom are prohibited from working.

A jump in the use of hotels since 2020 has been attributed to the impacts of the COVID pandemic, a backlog in unresolved asylum cases, and an increase in the number of migrants crossing the Channel in small boats.

However, the number of asylum seekers living in hotels has fallen recently, from 38,079 at the end of 2024 to 32,345 at the end of March 2025, according to the Refugee Council.

How police tried to keep groups apart

The police imposed conditions on both groups in London to prevent “serious disorder” and minimise disruption to the community.

Those in the anti-asylum hotel protest were told to remain within King Charles Square, and to gather not before 1pm and wrap up by 4pm.

Those in the counter-protest were to required to stay in an area in Lever Street, and assemble only between 12pm and 4pm, but were still in eye and ear shot of the other group.

Chief Superintendent Clair Haynes, in charge of the policing operation, said: “We have been in discussions with the organisers of both protests in recent days, building on the ongoing engagement between local officers, community groups and partners.

“We understand that there are strongly held views on all sides.

“Our officers will police without fear or favour, ensuring those exercising their right to protest can do so safely, but intervening at the first sign of actions that cross the line into criminality.”

Meanwhile, the protest in Newcastle was promoted by online posts saying it was “for our children, for our future”.

The “stop the far right and fascists in Newcastle” counter-protest was organised by Stand Up To Racism at the nearby Laing Art Gallery.

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Jon Ruben remanded into custody on child cruelty charges after children fell ill at summer camp

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Jon Ruben remanded into custody on child cruelty charges after children fell ill at summer camp

A man has been remanded into custody charged with child cruelty offences after allegedly lacing sweets with sedatives.

Jon Ruben, 76, of Ruddington, Nottinghamshire, appeared at Leicester Magistrates’ Court on Saturday after youngsters fell ill at a summer camp in Stathern, Leicestershire.

He has been charged with three counts of wilfully assaulting, ill-treating, neglecting, abandoning or exposing children in a manner likely to cause them unnecessary suffering or injury to health.

The charges relate to three boys at the camp between 25-29 July.

A general view of the scene in Stathern, Leicestershire, after a 76-year-old man was arrested on suspicion of administering poison at a summ
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The scene in Stathern, Leicestershire. Pic: PA

Ruben spoke only to confirm his name, age and address.

Police received a report of children feeling unwell at a camp being held at Stathern Lodge, near Melton in Leicestershire, last Sunday.

Officers said paramedics attended the scene and eight boys – aged between eight and 11 – were taken to hospital as a precaution, as was an adult. They have since been discharged.

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Police said the “owners and operators of Stathern Lodge are independent from those people who use or hire the lodge and are not connected to the incident”.

Leicestershire Police has referred itself to the Independent Office for Police Conduct, after officers initially reported the incident as having happened on Monday, only to later amend it to Sunday.

It is still unclear when officers responded and whether that is why the watchdog referral has been made.

Ruben will next appear at Leicester Crown Court on 29 August.

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