The language used by Elon Musk about Tesla’s self-driving effort is changing, and it is muddying the timeline for the automaker to deliver on its promise.
Musk use to make statements that made him sound supremely confident that Tesla could soon deliver a self-driving system and virtually all vehicles the automaker produced since 2016 through a software update.
During Tesla’s Autonomy Day in 2019, he made so many comments that promised that Tesla would achieve full self-driving capabilities that we were able to produce a video of three straight minutes of Musk promising Tesla delivering a self-driving system:
As you can see in this video, Musk was talking about “robotaxis” and “not having to touch the steering wheel” or even not needing to “look out the window” at the time.
He was also talking about Tesla delivering those capabilities in 2020.
Two years later, Tesla’s Full Self-Driving Capability, or FSD, is still in beta – it requires the driver to be attentive at all times, and system disengagements are quite frequent.
Tesla is not only behind Musk’s schedule to deliver on the system, but now Musk has been changing the goalpost lately.
The CEO has already stopped talking about the biggest promises, like “1 million robotaxis by the end of the year.” Instead, he has been talking about a wider release of Tesla’s FSD Beta, which again is extremely far from a robot taxi service.
Now during a conference call following the release of Tesla’s Q3 2022 financial results, Musk is again being much more careful about the language he uses around Tesla’s self-driving effort.
He again talked about a wider release of FSD Beta:
This quarter, we expect to go to wide release of Full Self-Driving Beta in North America. So, anyone who has ordered a Full Self-Driving package will have access to the FSD beta program this year, probably about a month from now.
But where things got dicey was when Musk was directly asked by an analyst when will Tesla deliver a level 4 or level 5 self-driving system. Those are the levels where drivers don’t have to pay attention.
Musk’s answer was vague, to say the least, and the comment was much weaker than his previous promises:
Well, there’s this debate of what’s the interventions per mile and maybe safety interventions per mile. Like we’re not saying that that’s quite ready to have no one behind the wheel. It’s just that you will almost never have to touch the control, vehicle controllers. So, like when I came to Giga Texas from a friend’s house today, I never touched any of the controls already here.
And then there is a longer process called the march of 9s, which is how many 9s reliability do you need before you could really be comfortable saying that the car could drive with no one in it? And there’s some subjectivity as to how many 9s you need. But I think we’ll be pretty close to having enough 9s that you’re going to have no one in the car by the end of this year. And certainly, without a question, that’s in my mind next year.
The CEO then added that Tesla plans to have an FSD update next year that will be used to “show to regulators that the car is safer than the average human.”
Electrek’s Take
Musk is obviously being more careful in his choice of words, but he is still talking about Tesla achieving level 4 or 5 next year.
The most frustrating part is that he obviously doesn’t have much credibility when it comes to this timeline anymore, but he keeps justifying this prediction by saying “you just have to look at the performance of Tesla FSD beta.”
My experience with FSD Beta certainly doesn’t suggest that, but some have had better experiences, especially in California, where there are more owners to train the system.
However, talking to the more unbiased FSD Beta testers, I found it hard to see a clear path to Tesla achieving level 4 or 5 autonomy within the next year.
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Following approval from Transport Canada, EV startup Workhorse will be bringing the W56 and W750 model electric delivery vans to commercial truck dealers in Canada as early as this spring.
“This is a major step forward for Workhorse,” says Josh Anderson, Workhorse’s chief technology officer in a press statement. “Pre-clearance from Transport Canada opens up a large new market for our products throughout Canada, including with fleets that operate across borders in North America.”
Despite that uncertainty, Workhorse execs remain upbeat. “We’re excited that our electric step vans can now reach Canadian roads and highways, providing reliable, zero-emission solutions that customers can depend on,” added Anderson.
Canadian pricing has yet to be announced.
Electrek’s Take
FedEx electric delivery vehicle; via Workhorse.
There’s no other way to say it: the Trump/Musk co-presidency is disrupting a lot of companies’ plans – and that’s especially true across North American borders. But in all this chaos and turmoil there undoubtedly lies opportunity, and it will be interesting to see who ends up on top.
The new Liebherr S1 Vision 140-ton hauler is unlike any heavy haul truck currently on the market – primarily because the giant, self-propelled, single-axle autonomous bucket doesn’t look anything like any truck you’ve ever seen.
Liebherr says its latest heavy equipment concept was born from a desire to rethink truck design with a focus only on core functions. The resulting S1 Vision is primarily just a single axle with two powerful electric motors sending power to a pair of massive airless tires designed carry loads up to 131 tonnes (just over 140 tons).
The design enables rapid maintenance, as important components easily accessible for quick servicing. Wear parts can be replaced efficiently, and the electric drive significantly reduces maintenance work. This helps to minimise downtimes and increases operational efficiency.
LIEBHERR
Because of its versatility, durability, and ability to perform zero-turn maneuvers that other equipment simply can’t, the Liebherr S1 Vision can be adapted for various applications, including earthmoving, mining, and even agriculture. There’s also a nonzero chance of this technology finding applications supporting other on-site equipment through charging or fuel delivery.
The S1 accomplishes that trick safely with the help of an automatic load leveling system that ensures maximum stability, even on bumpy or rough terrain. The company says this technology significantly reduces the risk of tipping while providing smooth and secure operation across various environments.
The HD arm of Hyundai has just released the first official images of the new, battery-electric HX19e mini excavator – the first ever production electric excavator from the global South Korean manufacturer.
The HX19e will be the first all-electric asset to enter series production at Hyundai Construction Equipment, with manufacturing set to begin this April.
The new HX19e will be offered with either a 32 kWh or 40 kWh li-ion battery pack – which, according to Hyundai, is nearly double the capacity offered by its nearest competitor (pretty sure that’s not correct –Ed.). The 40kWh battery allows for up to 6 hours and 40 minutes of continuous operation between charges, with a break time top-up on delivering full shift usability.
Those batteries send power to a 13 kW (17.5 hp) electric motor that drives an open-center hydraulic system. Hyundai claims the system delivers job site performance that is at least equal to, if not better than, that of its diesel-powered HX19A mini excavator.
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To that end, the Hyundai XH19e offers the same 16 kN bucket breakout force and a slightly higher 9.4 kN (just over 2100 lb-ft) dipper arm breakout force. The maximum digging depth is 7.6 feet, and the maximum digging reach is 12.9 feet. Hyundai will offer the new electric excavator with just four selectable options:
enclosed cab vs. open canopy
32 or 40 kWh battery capacity
All HX19es will ship with a high standard specification that includes safety valves on the main boom, dipper arm, and dozer blade hydraulic cylinders, as well as two-way auxiliary hydraulic piping allows the machine to be used with a range of commercially available implements. The hydraulics needed to operate a quick coupler, LED booms lights, rotating beacons, an MP3 radio with USB connectivity, and an operator’s seat with mechanical suspension are also standard.
HX19e electric mini excavator; via Hyundai Construction Equipment.
The ability to operate indoors, underground, or in environments like zoos and hospitals were keeping noise levels down is of critical importance to the success of an operation makes electric equipment assets like these coming from Hyundai a must-have for fleet operators and construction crews that hope to remain competitive in the face of ever-increasing noise regulations. The fact that these are cleaner, safer, and cheaper to operate is just icing on that cake.