Houston Astros superfan Mattress Mack can’t lose, no matter who wins the World Series
INSTEAD OF A bank vault or a Brink’s truck, the betting slips from what could be the largest payout in sports gambling history are being guarded by nothing more than an old, tattered Houston Astros backpack. On a recent Tuesday afternoon in Houston, with the MLB playoffs about to begin, the faded blue nylon bag — its contents worth potentially millions — sits on the floor of the massive Gallery Furniture showroom, just within arm’s reach of its owner: the Houston furniture magnate and Astros superfan Jim McIngvale, better known around these parts and in the world of high-stakes sports gambling as “Mattress Mack.”
Lanky and seemingly equal parts ears, teeth, cowboy boots and charisma, McIngvale has been a household name in Houston for decades thanks to his wacky TV commercials and his Ross Perot delivery. “I just have what you might call a high tolerance for risk,” McIngvale says. “Damon Runyon said ‘All horse players die broke.’ And I know I shouldn’t bet with my heart, but it’s hard not to and it’s a lot more fun.” In 2017, McIngvale gained national notoriety for opening his doors and sheltering hundreds of victims of Hurricane Harvey for weeks inside his furniture showroom, something he also did after Hurricane Katrina years prior. After the storm, as the Astros continued their historic run to the 2017 World Series, McIngvale was in the news yet again, this time for an only-in-Texas furniture promotion through which anyone who bought a mattress from Gallery Furniture would get it for free if the Astros won it all.
In a rather ingenious move at the dawn of the legal sports gambling era, McIngvale hedged his potential business losses by placing seven-figure bets on the Astros. Good thing. He ended up having to refund more than $10 million worth of mattresses. “We take large wagers from sports bettors of all stripes, but I’m not sure anyone does it with as much panache as Mack,” says Ken Fuchs, head of sports at Caesars Entertainment. “That’s why I bring in [Hall of Fame baseball owner and promoter] Bill Veeck as the only comparison with Mack. He’s never afraid to make a statement or take a risk and, clearly, he has fun doing it.”
By the end of the 2017 MLB season, McIngvale was such a Houston institution the Astros brought him along as one of their own for the trip to the White House. “We invited Mack because he had become such an example of everything the Astros and Houston had been through together in that year,” says Anita Sehgal, the Astros’ senior vice president of marketing and communications. “Houstonians have watched him build his life in Houston while giving back every step of the way. That’s why they have a special love for him. For Mack it’s not about words, it’s about action.”
In more ways than one.
Now, five years later, with the Astros poised to face the Philadelphia Phillies in the World Series, McIngvale’s original furniture promotion — and the epic sports bets behind it — have quintupled in size to what is about to be a record-breaking $75 million World Series squeeze play. By the start of the Fall Classic on Friday, McIngvale says he’ll have around $10 million (at an average 7.5-to-1 odds) riding on the Astros. In other words, the exact kind of nerve-frying, death-defying stakes Mattress Mack, 71, has been drawing aces his whole life.
On the eve of the MLB postseason, we spent time with McIngvale for a look behind the scenes at the remarkable life and times of Mattress Mack and the moments during the past four decades that led him to take such a big swing on his hometown team.
“I just get bored to death with stability, which is why I guess I like all of these big bets,” he shrugs, even as he faces the culmination of all his business success, sports-gambling excess and Astros madness. “I thrive on chaos.”
If that’s true, with an entire furniture fortune now riding on the Astros, McIngvale is about to have the time of his life.
IT’S JUST AFTER noon inside the bustling, 110,000-square-foot original Gallery Furniture showroom on the north side of Houston, and McIngvale is where he always is and where he hopes to remain “until I die” — behind the front desk, noshing on an orange and taking customer service calls. While McIngvale, who is worth an estimated $300 million, checks on the delivery status of a bedroom set, visitors wander through the property, a mesmerizing wonderland of furniture, kitsch, memorabilia and community outreach.
The football field-sized warehouse out back is stuffed with mattresses in anticipation of another Astros title. On the north side of the building is a daycare funded by McIngvale. To the south, a trade school. (The saying around here is that since the hurricane this location has become a community center disguised as a furniture showroom.) One 360-degree panorama near the entrance includes, I swear, the customized Texas A&M presidential motor scooter that belonged to George H.W. Bush, four stuffed raccoons playing poker on top of a bar, a glass showcase overflowing with humanitarian awards, a 30-foot nutcracker doll next to a similarly ginormous Christmas tree, a series of paintings of steers relaxing on sofas, a framed excerpt from Thomas Paine’s 1776 “Common Sense,” a 5-foot wooden fish carved from a tree stump and painted like the Texas flag, a six-piece leather, reclining living room set (last one, as is — no returns), a giant slab from a 513-year-old African Bubinga tree, a signed poster from the Chuck Norris movie “Sidekicks” and an ornately framed oil painting portrait of McIngvale’s north star, his father, George Sr.
In the 1960s Jim was a prep football standout at Bishop Lynch High School in Dallas, a school his father helped found. (Jim claims his junior high coach, Bob Barrett, was among the group of officers who arrested Lee Harvey Oswald at the Texas Theatre.) A few years later when a former high school teammate of McIngvale’s didn’t have the money or the means to get back to college, George McIngvale put him in his car and drove him 2,000 miles back to Dartmouth. “My father was a giver, even when he didn’t have money to give, so he died without a lot, but he died very happy,” McIngvale says. “And that spontaneity, that taking care of people, that, maybe not a lot of thinking, but more just ‘ready-fire-aim’ approach to life? That’s where it comes from.”
EVEN THOUGH McINGVALE was a member of the legendary 1969 and 1970 Texas Longhorns football teams that won 30 straight games and back-to-back national titles, you can tell the overall importance of this experience in his life by where the Longhorns team photo is displayed inside Gallery Furniture: right above the customer restrooms. “I was a great football player, I just had two small problems,” McIngvale says. “I was too small and I was too slow.” Spending all that time on the sidelines, however, McIngvale became close with another major influence in his life, Frank Medina, the Longhorns trainer from 1945 to 1978. “He was all of 4-foot-10, but he was a fireball,” McIngvale says. “He’d get right up in your face and scream ‘What are you saving it for, son? Is that all you got?’ And he taught me this line: ‘Ask, take and give no quarter.’ In other words: Never give up and never ask for anything. Do it yourself.”
Before he started selling furniture, McIngvale was a “broke failure” living at home in Dallas, trying to keep the lights on at his first business, a fitness center. Around 1978, hoping to sell some gym memberships, he attended “Muhammad Ali Appreciation Day” at Market Hall in Dallas. Late in Ali’s career, in between fights, the three-time heavyweight champ cashed in on his popularity with barnstorming-type “exhibitions” where he’d spar with local heavyweights and sign autographs for fans. After quickly dispatching a handful of local heavyweight hopefuls, Ali, always the showman, grabbed the ring announcer’s microphone and taunted the crowd: “Any y’all want to fight?”
Only one hand went up.
It was McIngvale’s.
“OK, come on up here then, Great White Hope,” Ali yelled.
Inside the ring, as a trainer laced up McIngvale’s gloves, Ali leaned in and told McIngvale the plan for the spectacle. After sparring for a round, Ali would drop his guard and McIngvale would seemingly knock his lights out, then stand over Ali and taunt the fallen champ. McIngvale did exactly as Ali told him, and when the crowd turned on McIngvale, Ali miraculously sprang back to life, grabbed the mic and confessed to choreographing the entire stunt.
And not a second too soon.
“People in the crowd were already asking my friends, ‘Hey, are you with him?’ And they were like, ‘Uh, no, no, we’re not with him,'” McIngvale says.
McIngvale’s wife, Linda, was with him at the event. “It just showed what a great personality Ali had, and of course Mack loved that side of Ali. [Ali] was obviously the greatest boxer of all time, but what Mack also loved was he was also the greatest promoter of all time, too.”
Says McIngvale, “I just seem to stumble into these things. I’m not shy, and I have a high tolerance for risk. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn’t.
“It’s like when you lose a million-dollar bet, you just say, ‘What’s next?’ That’s all you can do. But I do know we sold a lot of gym memberships that day.”
AFTER GALLERY FURNITURE opened in 1981, a Texas oil bust forced Houstonians to tighten their belts and threatened to bankrupt McIngvale. Down to his last $10,000, McIngvale spent half on inventory and half on a TV commercial shoot. After three hours in front of the camera, though, he had nothing on tape he could use. “I was stuttering and stammering and down to my last take,” McIngvale says. “I had the day’s receipts in my back pocket, so I pulled those out and waved them around and said ‘Gallery Furniture will save you … MONEEEY!’ The producer said, ‘That’s it, that’s the commercial.’ And it stuck.” The over-the-top spots started airing late at night on Channel 39 in Texas, where McIngvale enjoyed a long association with Houston Wrestling and WWE Hall of Fame announcer Paul Boesch.
Mattress Mack was born.
Combined with McIngvale’s longtime association with the Astros, it’s a character who immediately draws comparisons to legendary MLB owner and promoter Bill Veeck, the man who, in 1979, gave us Disco Demolition Night. “Someone who bets big and bets with his heart, with a colorful personality,” Fuchs says. “Like Veeck, Mack thinks about ideas in such a large way, but he’s able to act on them and execute them.”
McIngvale’s catch phrase has been flooding the Houston airwaves nonstop since the 1980s. (He has screamed it while wearing a mattress, while nearly being trampled by livestock, while fighting Chuck Norris, tumbling with Olympians, arm wrestling comedian Joe Piscopo and posing next to pretty much every B-level celeb in Texas.) Mattress Mack has become a part of the community’s subconscious. McIngvale says he recently walked past an autistic teenager shopping for furniture with his parents, and the normally nonverbal child said, “Hiya, Mack!” His mother burst into tears.
“I’ve always been bombastic and wanted to be a big promoter like W.C. Fields or Bill Veeck,” McIngvale says. “That’s what I’ve always dreamed of being, and now I’m getting to live it out.”
McINGVALE’S APPETITE FOR sports gambling started in 2006 when he says he won $250,000 on Texas and Vince Young in the national championship game. But it was two die-hard Peyton Manning fans who helped him develop the idea to hedge his furniture promos with massive sports wagers. Well, kind of. In 2014, before the Broncos played the Seahawks in Super Bowl XLVIII, two employees convinced McIngvale there was no way on Earth that their boy Peyton would ever lose to the lowly Seahawks. So — ready, fire, aim! — McIngvale announced that if the Seahawks somehow beat Manning everyone would get their furniture for free. “I didn’t hedge anything on this at all,” he says, “and it really got away from me in the last three or four days.”
By Saturday, Gallery Furniture had sold every mattress, every sofa, every ottoman and every last lamp in stock. “The damnedest promotion we ever had,” McIngvale says. “On Saturday night at 7 o’clock I’m standing on top of the desk at the front of the store screaming at the people that they have to go home now, we have no more furniture. It. Was. Unbelievable. We sold every last stick of furniture we had. Never happened in our history before.”
McIngvale knew he was on to something. He was ecstatic. Right up until he did the math just before kickoff.
“I hadn’t told my wife or anyone else about this, but we were on the hook for a whole lot if Seattle won,” he says.
Far too nervous to watch the game, McIngvale ran on the treadmill in the exercise room at the back of his warehouse for three hours. (He doesn’t have a TV at home.) When the two Peyton Manning fans were nowhere to be found, McIngvale knew he was screwed. All he could do then was wait for the postgame call every gambler dreads. “The phone rang at the end of the game, I picked it up and I said, ‘Who won?’ and my wife says ‘Seattle won you big dummy, how much money did we lose?’ And I just spit it out: ‘Nine million. We’re out nine million,'” McIngvale recalls. (McIngvale has run this story through the Mattress Mack Filter in recent years. An ESPN story from 2014 says he actually lost $7 million.) “Let’s just say, yeah, she wasn’t a happy camper. That’s when I realized I needed to find a way to hedge this stuff somehow.”
In 2017, a day after Hurricane Harvey decimated Houston, Gallery Furniture inventory control manager Anthony Lebedzinski arrived at the showroom where, he says, McIngvale was already handing out keys to the company’s fleet of delivery trucks to any able-bodied adult willing to help rescue people from the floodwaters. Later that day while trying to reach a trapped family, Lebedzinski nearly drowned when he was sucked into the filthy floodwater by an open manhole cover. “He was halfway to Galveston Bay before he saved himself,” McIngvale says. Daring rescues like Lebedzinski’s continued for days until there were hundreds of families not just sheltering but living inside McIngvale’s pristine showroom. “Mack’s always first, first in the water, first to open his doors, first to help,” says Houston schoolteacher and Astros fan Deirdre Ricketts. “All Houstonians have big hearts, but Mack’s might be the biggest.”
“People asked, ‘How can you let them sleep on the brand-new furniture like that?'” McIngvale says. “What am I going to do, let them all drown? So that was it. To me, it was nothing. It was the right thing to do. And I wanted my kids to see me doing that. At the end of the day we’re all going to be judged by our creator, and he isn’t going to ask how much money we made. Instead, he or she will ask us how much of a difference did you make?”
McIngvale’s immediate, large-scale, open-arms policy set the tone and created a path forward in the terrifying, chaotic and critical early days of the city’s recovery. It was the best of Houston, Sehgal says, the way people took McIngvale’s example and ran with it, coming together across the board to help each other.
One of the temporary residents pulled out of the floodwaters and fed, clothed and sheltered at Gallery Furniture for several days was Khanh Doan, 31. At a recent home Astros game, Doan finally got to thank McIngvale in person.
For saving his life?
“No,” he says.
“For saving my life, my mother’s life and my father’s life.”
During the past decade McIngvale has also helped raise $12 million for tsunami relief, he delivered 25,000 care packages to seniors during the COVID pandemic and he opened his showroom again during last year’s winter storm and power outages. In August when the team from nearby Pearland, Texas, made it to the Little League World Series, McIngvale and the Astros raised money to send the players’ families to Williamsport, Pennsylvania.
“Mack’s always the first to step up for anything that’s impacting Houston,” Sehgal says. “Big or small.”
IF YOU REALLY want to catch a glimpse of McIngvale’s electric Mattress Mack alter ego, don’t ask about Texas football, his Elvis memorabilia collection or even his weakness for racehorses and Ferraris. Instead, ask about his life’s masterpiece: The Promotion. By combining all of his passions — furniture sales, community, sports, gambling and Texas-sized spectacle — McIngvale has achieved a kind of gambler’s nirvana by finding a way to bet millions upon millions on his beloved Astros and other teams without ever really “losing” a cent, all while pushing his brand equity through the roof.
Here’s how it works: It starts with picking underdogs and getting favorable odds. Because, without the futures aspect, none of the math works. For example, this season McIngvale’s initial $3 million bet at Caesars for the Astros to win it all at +1000 covered him for the first $30 million in potential furniture refunds. Next, McIngvale makes the grand announcement, which is some variation of: Spend $3,000 or more on a mattress and accept delivery within 24 hours, and if the Astros go on to win it all, your purchase is free. Then, the more furniture he sells through the promotion, the more McIngvale bets on the Astros, whose line has moved from 10-to-1 to 8-to-1 to 4-to-1 to their current status as World Series favorites.
Fuchs says McIngvale’s idea to use sports gambling as a business hedge is a different angle than anyone has ever seen before. “He’s laying off the risk with these wagers, covering one big loss with one big win,” adds Patrick Everson, senior reporter for Vegas Insider. “It’s kind of a genius business move, really. And, clearly, he’s got the money to lose. He’s not losing any sleep at all.”
What McIngvale really understands better than gambling, furniture or promotion, though, is human nature. Even the slightest chance to get something for free is practically irresistible to most consumers, especially those already on the fence about needing a new mattress. The more sales increase, the more McIngvale gets to do the thing he loves most: bask in the attention and fly off to Vegas to place ridiculously large bets, sometimes with a briefcase full of cash. “It’s just like in the movies, the briefcase gets its own seat on the plane,” says Gallery’s Gerald McNeil, a former Pro Bowl returner with the Browns in the 1980s who now works with McIngvale. After the first few spur-of-the-moment trips to Vegas with McIngvale, McNeil started keeping a change of clothes in his car at work. “I guess it’s my job to save the suitcase if the plane goes down,” McNeil says.
Sports gambling is still illegal in Texas, so when he doesn’t feel like jetting to Vegas, McIngvale will simply drive roughly 125 miles east until the betting app on his phone pings to let him know he’s in Louisiana and free to drop another million or five. On the eve of the past Super Bowl, outside a rest stop in Vinton, Louisiana (and on live TV, of course — this is Mattress Mack after all), McIngvale dropped $5 million on the Cincinnati Bengals, the largest Super Bowl bet in history. And this summer, as the Astros caught fire and the promotion exploded — until July, McIngvale was refunding double the customer’s money on mattresses and furniture — McIngvale flew to sportsbooks in Iowa and Vegas to bet another $4 million in a single night.
“I sweat these games because of these promotions and it is so much anxiety,” McIngvale’s wife, Linda, says. “I don’t know how he doesn’t get anxious about it. I think he does and pretends like he doesn’t.”
“My wife says I have a gambling problem,” McIngvale says. “I say I have a promotion problem.”
They’re both probably right.
If the chosen team happens to win, great, McIngvale’s losses are covered, thousands of ecstatic customers blab for years to everyone they know about that time they won the lottery at Gallery Furniture, and many of them turn around and spend the refund on more furniture.
After the Astros won it all in 2017, McIngvale got to live out every gambler’s dream, flying home from Vegas with that raggedy old Astros backpack of his stuffed with almost 50 pounds of the sportsbooks’ money.
If the team loses, well, that’s when McIngvale really wins. For example, last season McIngvale “lost” his $3.35 million wager when the Braves beat the Astros in the World Series. McIngvale pulled out all the stops for that bet, trying to appeal to a higher power by packing a suite at Minute Maid Park with nuns from the Dominican Sisters of Mary Immaculate Province. The sisters became known as the “Rally Nuns” until a 7-0 loss at home to the Braves in a godforsaken Game 6.
It wasn’t quite as soul-shattering a defeat as you’d imagine for McIngvale, though. The odds on that bet covered McIngvale for more than $35 million in freebies. So, assuming the promotion brought in around $30 million in sales (during the fall, no less, which is typically a slow time in the furniture biz), at even a 40% markup, minus his wager, McIngvale confirms that he still came away with a cool profit, probably somewhere close to $9 million. And that’s not even counting the value of all the free advertising, promotion and goodwill that McIngvale says is “exponential,” or the fact that, according to TurboTax, itemized gambling losses can be tax deductible.
“Oh, it’s definitely a win-win,” McIngvale says. “These promotions just bring the brand to life and give us a ton of brand equity that we wouldn’t have otherwise. The customers love it so they’re totally engaged and talk about it for years. Because it runs all season long it probably ups the number of people following the Astros, too, because now they have a real vested interest in the team.”
WHEN McINGVALE WAS a panelist at a gambling conference and trade show in New Jersey this summer, Everson says he heard minor grumblings from bettors about the whole Mattress Mack phenomenon. Mainly, that it’s unfair how McIngvale is allowed to place multimillion-dollar bets while sportsbooks strictly limit what the average person can wager. Besides sounding a lot like airline passengers who blame the awful conditions in economy on the people flying first class, this really is an issue with sportsbooks policy, not McIngvale. One sports gambling industry insider said the reason sportsbooks love McIngvale so much and allow him to keep betting bigger and bigger amounts is all the free promotion they get out of it, and the fact that, well, he’s kinda terrible at it.
During a brutal losing streak in 2022, McIngvale dropped $15.4 million on the Patriots, the Titans, the Bengals and Alabama. He was about to be out another cool $5.5 million in the NCAA tournament until Kansas came back from 16 down at the half to defeat North Carolina. Just before the tip, McIngvale sneaked off to Louisiana to bet another $1 million on Kansas at -190. The wager broke all his rules about taking only underdogs and not gambling with his heart. “Stupid bet,” he says. “I see all these kids when I go to Vegas and it’s the weirdest thing because they all know me from gambling. People think I’m a great handicapper but I’m really not.”
After March Madness, McIngvale brought Jayhawks coach Bill Self into the store for the first day of the $14 million giveaway party. “First customers, a big family, comes up to say thanks to Self and I asked them, ‘How much did y’all win?'” McIngvale says, placing his hand on his forehead. “Sixty-four thousand. Sixty. Four. Thousand. It about knocked me over.”
Another reason the books love McIngvale is what Vegas Insider calls the Mattress Mack effect. McIngvale’s huge wagers on the Astros actually help defray the sportsbooks’ liability on more popular teams like the Yankees and Dodgers, teams that would normally be a loss for casinos. For the record, McIngvale doesn’t like the idea of limits, either. “I think they ought to take bigger bets,” he says. “It’s like if some customer comes in here and wants to spend a million dollars. Well? Knock yourself out. What difference does it make? Yes, the sportsbooks have to hedge it the other way, but they ought to have enough savvy to do that. They’re going to take some big losses, but they’re also going to get some big wins too if they have the numbers right.”
That math will continue to keep people like Fuchs up at night until the Astros are eliminated or sports gambling history is made. Although it’s clear he gets a kick out Mattress Mack, and the promotional mileage of his big bets, Fuchs stops short of rooting for the Astros. “It will be a lot of fun to be on this roller coaster as they progress through the postseason,” he says. “That’s the beauty of Mack’s hedge. It works out for everybody. Well, unless we lose $30 million.”
IN THE END, few things can capture the inexplicable phenomenon that is Mattress Mack better than McIngvale’s Astros game attire. About an hour before the Astros faced the Diamondbacks on Sept. 27, McIngvale shuffled into the mezzanine level of Minute Maid Park by himself, sporting his signature look: well-worn black cowboy boots, a slightly askew orange-billed Astros cap, blue business slacks and an authentic Alex Bregman home white Astros jersey over a white button-down oxford, covered in a galaxy of black dots from the Sharpie McIngvale uses to take notes and sign autographs. McIngvale always completes this ensemble with the single most egregious sports-fashion crime of them all: tucking his game jersey into his pants.
And yet, somehow, on him it works.
Apparently, $70 million in free furniture as an accent piece will do that for an outfit. McIngvale promises that number will keep climbing as long the Astros keep winning, the odds remain favorable and the sportsbooks keep taking his bets. McIngvale is close to several of the Astros, especially Bregman, who shares his passion for racehorses, and he insists the players get a kick out of his promotions and don’t feel the least bit of pressure to help remodel the living rooms of half of Houston.
“This year he’s done it right, and if the Astros win it all it’s so exciting for him and the customers,” Linda McIngvale says. “Mack has this huge connection to the team now, and he loves doing this. … The man works really hard so, you know, it’s all good.”
Mobbed by fans the second he steps into the park, it takes McIngvale an hour to walk along the mezzanine from home plate to right field. And when he does finally reach his seat about 10 rows behind the Houston dugout, Section 122 erupts in a wave of applause. The Astros’ response to McIngvale’s arrival is even more dramatic: three homers in four at-bats to blow the game open in the sixth. “He’s an icon, I love him, he’s Mack to me, not Jim McIngvale,” says Sehgal, the Astros SVP. “He’s just an authentic fan with a really big heart, the kind of person you can’t see without it putting a smile on your face.”
Outside of Houston, McIngvale has quickly become an irresistible storyline as a quirky curiosity in the burgeoning world of mega-sports gambling. Inside this city, though, he remains something completely different and far more impactful. For three straight hours inside Minute Maid Park, fans beam when they recognize Mattress Mack. Some yell out “Legend!” and keep walking to their seats. Others repeat his quirky catch phrase or reveal exactly how much free furniture they won in 2017. A little girl asks him if he’s a ballplayer. A few fans bend his ear for gambling advice on the Texans and Oklahoma State. But the vast majority of people who stop do so to offer some heartfelt variation of the same message: “Thank you for everything you’ve done for this city the last 40 years. Go Stros! Let’s get those free mattresses!”
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Bill Connelly
The college football season is teetering between order and chaos. On one hand, we basically have three teams guaranteed a playoff bid at this point (Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M) and another few that simply need to win games in which they’re heavily favored to wrap things up (Texas Tech, Georgia, Ole Miss, Notre Dame, maybe Alabama). That doesn’t leave many open spots.
On the other hand, those open spots have tons of semi-realistic contenders — at least 22 teams still have a puncher’s chance — and the ACC and American conference races could still be blown open again. The Big 12, Conference USA, Mountain West, MAC and SEC races are far from settled too. (And then there’s the whole “Ole Miss gearing up for a playoff bid and praying to hold on to its coach” thing.)
There is so much to keep track of Saturday, in other words. Stay caffeinated and keep the remote in your hand at all times! Here’s everything you need to follow in a hectic Week 13.
All times Eastern, all games on Saturday unless otherwise noted.
A big one in the Big Ten (West)
No. 15 USC at No. 7 Oregon (3:30 p.m., CBS)
The old-school Big Ten portion of Oregon’s Big Ten schedule is over, and now the Ducks will finish up with old friends USC and Washington. The 9-1 Ducks still have some business to handle, playoff-wise, but they’ll be favored in both games, and they should still be OK at 10-2. At 8-2 and 15th in the CFP rankings, USC obviously has to win out to have a chance.
It’s going to be elite vs. elite when the Trojans have the ball.
Key statistical rankings
Yards per play: USC offense second, Oregon defense third
Points per drive: USC offense fifth, Oregon defense ninth
Success rate*: USC offense fourth, Oregon defense 18th
Yards per successful play: Oregon defense first, USC offense 11th
(*Success rate: How frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third or fourth.)
USC’s Jayden Maiava still ranks first nationally in Total QBR, as he has for most of the season. His combination of sack avoidance and big-play passing is rare — only 9.9% of pressures on him become sacks (fifth among power-conference QBs) and he averages 14.3 yards per completion (fourth).
In Makai Lemon, Maiava has an all-around star at receiver — he has made 61% of his catches out of the slot and 35% lined up wide, and though he does a lot of damage from screens, hook routes and other short passes, he also has caught 14 of 19 passes for 517 yards and three touchdowns on balls thrown 20-plus yards downfield. He has an elite catch rate at nearly every level.
Last week, against the best defense USC has faced this season (Iowa), Lemon caught 10 passes for 153 yards. Now comes the new best defense the Trojans have faced: Oregon ranks third in defensive SP+ and second in yards allowed per dropback. The Ducks have yet to give up more than 5.3 yards per play in any game. USC has yet to average less than 5.5.
That will be a great matchup, but whether this is a great game depends on USC’s defense. At 37th in defensive SP+, it’s comfortably the best group Lincoln Riley has fielded in Los Angeles, but against the only two top-20 offenses they’ve faced, per SP+ (Illinois and Notre Dame), the Trojans gave up 34.0 points per game and 7.2 yards per play. Oregon ranks 10th in offensive SP+.
The pass defense is solid, but the Trojans rank 126th in rushing success rate allowed and 103rd in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line). That’s pretty scary against an Oregon team that has grown hit-or-miss through the air but almost always brings it on the ground.
In the past five games, with his receiving corps struggling through injuries, Dante Moore‘s Total QBR has been under 42.0 three times and over 91.0 twice. But the Ducks are second nationally in both rushing success rate and yards per carry, and they have endless depth at running back: Four backs have rushed at least 42 times, and three (Noah Whittington, Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr.) average at least 7.0 yards per carry. Teams can make stops if they force Moore to constantly make plays on passing downs, but it’s hard to guarantee USC will ever knock the Ducks off schedule.
Current line: Ducks -9.5 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 10.6 | FPI projection: Ducks by 6.0
Can Oklahoma and BYU handle their business?
Oklahoma and BYU are in solid shape playoff-wise, but SP+ gives the Sooners only a 46% chance of winning their next two games, while the Cougars are at 52%. Now is not the time for a misstep.
No. 22 Missouri at No. 8 Oklahoma (noon, ABC)
Attack the opponent’s offensive line, punish the quarterback’s inevitable mistakes, win the turnover battle, dominate in the red zone. It’s important to have an identity and Oklahoma most certainly has one. The Sooners forced three turnovers, returned one for a touchdown, and gave up only two touchdowns in nine trips inside their 40 as they won by six at Tennessee. Then they forced three more turnovers, returned another one for a touchdown, blocked a field goal attempt and somehow beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa despite being outgained by 184 yards. In their past six games, their turnover margin is plus-8 in four wins and minus-4 in two losses.
If Missouri’s quarterback situation were a little steadier, this game would be a near toss-up. The Tigers force three-and-outs 42.6% of the time (fifth nationally), and though they can occasionally be vulnerable to big plays, OU doesn’t create many of those. They are happy to engage in field position warfare with a run game featuring Ahmad Hardy, the nation’s leading rusher, and they are the nation’s leader in net YAC.
If this were an old-school, rushing-and-punting battle, Mizzou would have a great shot, but quarterback play matters. OU’s John Mateer hasn’t been amazing since his return from a September hand injury (past five games: 63.2 Total QBR, 5.0 yards per dropback, 2-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio) but he’ll give the Sooners an advantage over either of Mizzou’s two quarterbacks: A limited Beau Pribula, who is trying to rush back after dislocating his ankle four weeks ago, or, more likely, true freshman Matt Zollers, who has produced a dismal 21.9 Total QBR in two starts.
The winner of the turnover battle probably takes this one, and with the way defensive end Taylor Wein and the Sooners’ defensive front can create havoc — they average 10.2 tackles for loss, and no one else tops 8.5 — mistakes from Mizzou’s QB of choice will probably make the difference.
Current line: OU -7.5 (down from -9.5 Sunday) | SP+ projection: OU by 5.4 | FPI projection: OU by 3.5
No. 11 BYU at Cincinnati (8 p.m., Fox)
Texas Tech, BYU and Utah are the three nastiest, most physical teams in the Big 12, and they are a combined 27-4 in 2025 — 3-3 against each other and 24-1 against everyone else. BYU responded to a loss at Tech with a 44-13 blowout of TCU; now the Cougars face a Cincinnati team that has run aground, losing to Utah (45-14) and Arizona (30-24), and falling to 37th in SP+.
Cincy quarterback Brendan Sorsby, so good for much of the season, went just 26-for-61 (43%) with two touchdowns and three picks in those losses, and not even great production from running back Tawee Walker could save either game. The Bearcats’ defense has been a hindrance for much of the season, and suddenly the offense isn’t carrying its weight.
BYU’s offense still battles inconsistency at times, but against defenses ranked 30th or worse in SP+ they’re averaging 38.8 points and 6.5 yards per play. Does Cincinnati still have enough gas in the tank to match that?
Current line: BYU -2.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 4.2 | FPI projection: BYU by 4.4
Another week of clarity vs. chaos in the ACC
The current ACC title scenarios range from straightforward to spectacularly messy. If Georgia Tech beats Pitt on Saturday and Virginia beats Virginia Tech next week, the Yellow Jackets would almost certainly play the Cavaliers. But if Pitt beats Tech, the Panthers could clinch with an underdog win over Miami next week. SMU, meanwhile, would benefit from a Pitt win, but the Mustangs have two tricky games left (Louisville, at Cal).
Pitt at No. 16 Georgia Tech (7 p.m., ESPN)
Pitt quarterback Mason Heintschel finally looked like a freshman last week against Notre Dame, going 16-for-33 with an interception and four sacks. The run game went nowhere, star Desmond Reid got hurt, and a decent defensive performance couldn’t prevent a 37-15 loss. But as Pat Narduzzi so elegantly put it last week, that game didn’t really matter. If the Panthers win their next two, they will play for the ACC title.
Georgia Tech’s defense is much, much worse than Notre Dame’s. The Yellow Jackets rank 99th in yards allowed per carry (no sacks) and 95th in yards allowed per dropback. They’re pretty good when opponents are behind schedule, but those scenarios are rare. Pitt should score a decent amount, but the Panthers still have to slow down Tech’s star quarterback Haynes King. In his past six starts, he has averaged 291 passing yards and 93 non-sack rushing yards per game — nearly a 4,000/1,200 pace.
The stakes are enormous for Tech over these next three weeks: It could win the ACC and get long-awaited revenge on rival Georgia after last season’s heartbreak, or it could suffer double heartbreak instead. No pressure.
Current line: Tech -2.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 2.0 | FPI projection: Tech by 1.8
Louisville at SMU (noon, ESPN2)
Two weeks ago, Louisville had 42% of its snaps gain zero or fewer yards, with three sacks and loads of pressure on Miller Moss, and suffered an upset loss to Cal. Last week, the Cardinals were more efficient but produced 10 penalties, including four on offensive linemen and blocking tight ends, and fell to Clemson. Glitches up front have ruined their ACC title and CFP hopes (running back injuries haven’t helped), and now the best they can hope to do is ruin SMU’s.
Unfortunately for Louisville, SMU is good at creating offensive line glitches. The Mustangs are 25th in stuff rate and 37th in sack rate, and though they’ll give up big plays as a trade-off — and their secondary has battled a lot of injuries — Moss needs to be upright to make that happen.
Louisville’s defense will have a lot of the same advantages, at least. SMU’s offense is improving, but the Cards rank in the top 20 in yards allowed per both carry and dropback. Edge rusher Clev Lubin and slot corner Antonio Watts are outstanding disruptors and will give Louisville a chance.
Current line: SMU -2.5 | SP+ projection: SMU by 2.6 | FPI projection: SMU by 4.6
Keeping playoff hopes alive
According to general playoff odds, there’s probably about one CFP spot available, at most, for the quintet of No. 12 Utah, No. 13 Miami, No. 14 Vanderbilt, No. 15 USC and No. 18 Michigan. Besides USC, the other four are double-digit favorites this weekend, but they face unique challenges.
Kentucky at No. 14 Vanderbilt (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
Vanderbilt got a week off to rest a tiring defense that had given up 82 points in its past two games. If the Commodores can beat both Kentucky at home and Tennessee away, they’ll have solid CFP odds. With quarterback Diego Pavia playing as well as ever, they have a chance.
But this isn’t the best time to play Kentucky: Over the past three games, the 5-5 Wildcats have overachieved against SP+ projections by 24.6 points per game, enough to quickly leap from 66th to 43rd in SP+. Cutter Boley has posted at least a 78.0 Total QBR in five of his past six games, and backs Seth McGowan and Dante Dowdell have combined for 355 yards and seven touchdowns in the past two. Vanderbilt is used to track meets at this point, but the Commodores can’t afford a misstep against a hot opponent.
Current line: Vandy -9.5 | SP+ projection: Vandy by 11.3 | FPI projection: Vandy by 7.7
No. 18 Michigan at Maryland (4 p.m., BTN)
If Michigan wins its last two games, the Wolverines could give the CFP committee a giant headache. At 18th, they need some help to move into playoff positioning, but a win over top-ranked Ohio State would be an enormous boost (and might sneak them into the Big Ten championship game).
One issue: How many times have they actually looked like a playoff team this year? Twice? They were certainly impressive in the 63-3 win over Central Michigan, and manhandling Washington 24-7 in mid-October was excellent, but they’ve underachieved against projections in five of the past six games. Maryland has been outscored by an average of 38-12 in November, but it’s probably time for Michigan to start looking the part, and potentially in rainy conditions.
Current line: Michigan -13.5 | SP+ projection: Michigan by 9.4 | FPI projection: Michigan by 10.5
No. 13 Miami at Virginia Tech (noon, ESPN)
In theory, I understand the anger regarding Miami’s No. 13 CFP ranking. The Hurricanes did beat No. 9 Notre Dame in the season opener, and they have the same number of losses. Still, Notre Dame has lost only to the No. 3 and No. 13 teams while beating No. 15 USC. Miami has the win over the Irish but has lost twice to unranked teams — playing timidly late in both games — and has no other super-impressive wins on the résumé. No sympathy here.
That said, the Canes looked phenomenal last week against NC State despite rising injury issues. It was their best performance since about Week 3, and if they keep playing at that level, they could score some style points. Tech didn’t have much left to offer against Louisville or Florida State, but potentially sloppy weather might be a factor.
Current line: Miami -17.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 23.3 | FPI projection: Miami by 16.8
Kansas State at No. 12 Utah (4 p.m., ESPN2)
Kansas State had something going for a bit, winning three of four to jump to 4-4, but after a pummeling against Texas Tech, the Wildcats needed five takeaways to survive a dismal performance against one of the worst Oklahoma State teams of our lifetimes. Their momentum has halted, and now they have to face a mean and ambitious Utah team. The Utes have beaten only one SP+ top-50 opponent, but they’re eighth in SP+ because their wins have come by an average of 48-12.
K-State’s Avery Johnson is still super elusive, and the Wildcats’ run defense is decent, but it’s hard to imagine Johnson escaping star John Henry Daley all game, and it’s hard to imagine the Wildcats knocking QB Devon Dampier and the Utah ground game off course for long.
Current line: Utah -17.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 17.0 | FPI projection: Utah by 15.3
Which G5 favorite falls this week?
We’re down to three primary contenders for the Group of 5’s guaranteed playoff spot: 9-1 James Madison, 9-1 North Texas and 8-2 Tulane. We’ve lost a front-runner for two straight weeks, so the fact that Tulane is the new highest-ranked team might spell doom for the Green Wave, but JMU also faces a tricky home test. SP+ gives the three favorites only a 48% chance of all winning.
No. 24 Tulane at Temple (3:45 p.m., ESPNU)
What does Temple have left in the tank? K.C. Keeler’s 5-5 Owls have been a pleasant surprise and, at their best, get high-level passing from Evan Simon and solid pursuit from linebackers Damien Ordonez and Cam’Ron Stewart. But they might have peaked a month ago.
Tulane, meanwhile, remains hard to trust. The Green Wave have beaten Memphis and East Carolina but no-showed against UTSA in between. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff is as good as advertised, but the pass defense has been disastrous at times. If Temple regains its sharpness following a bye week, this could be tricky.
Current line: Tulane -7.5 | SP+ projection: Tulane by 5.6 | FPI projection: Tulane by 4.2
Washington State at James Madison (1 p.m., ESPN+)
For the third time in six weeks, Wazzu travels east of the Mississippi River — this time to play in rainy conditions at 10 a.m. PT. But the Cougs are hot, having risen from 111th in SP+ in September to 69th, and they’ve given up only 11.5 points per game in a six-game stretch that included trips to Virginia and Ole Miss.
We’ll see if JMU is just too hot for that to matter. Led by defensive ends Sahir West and Aiden Gobaira, the Dukes are eighth nationally in points allowed per drive, and after a bumpy midseason stretch, the offense has averaged 52 points over its past four games.
Current line: JMU -13.5 | SP+ projection: JMU by 14.5 | FPI projection: JMU by 12.2
North Texas at Rice (7:30 p.m., ESPNU)
Like Temple, Rice is a pleasantly surprising 5-5 in Scott Abell’s first season. His option offense has had its moments, but the defense is boom or bust, and one assumes North Texas’ explosive offense, led by potential 4,000-yard passer Drew Mestemaker and 1,000-yard rusher Caleb Hawkins, will have far too much firepower. An upset here would be a shocker.
Current line: UNT -18.5 | SP+ projection: UNT by 21.7 | FPI projection: UNT by 16.5
Week 13 chaos superfecta
We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. We whiffed last week, which dropped us to 6-6 for the season. Going by the math, that’s exactly where we should be, but let’s win out from here.
This week we’re taking on a playoff theme: In the four games in the “Keeping playoff hopes alive” section above, SP+ says there’s only a 44% chance that Miami (93% at Virginia Tech), Utah (86% vs. Kansas State), Vanderbilt (76% vs. Kentucky) and Michigan (72% at Maryland) all win. Let’s eliminate a contender!
Week 13 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday
Florida State at NC State (8 p.m., ESPN). After NC State’s brilliant upset of Georgia Tech in Week 10, the Wolfpack went on bye and barely returned, suffering a 41-7 no-show loss to Miami last week. And hey, speaking of immaculately frustrating teams, FSU is overachieving against SP+ projections by 12.5 points per game at home and underachieving by 18.0 PPG on the road. Which of these teams shows up?
Current line: FSU -4.5 | SP+ projection: FSU by 8.5 | FPI projection: FSU by 5.0
Hawai’i at UNLV (10:30 p.m., FS1). With Boise State imploding without quarterback Maddux Madsen, the Mountain West race has become messy — five teams are tied for second at 4-2 (behind 5-1 San Diego State). Two of them play late Friday night, and I’ll be shocked if it isn’t one of the more fun games of the weekend. UNLV has hit 30 or more points in nine of 10 games, and Hawai’i has done so in five straight.
Current line: UNLV -2.5 | SP+ projection: UNLV by 4.8 | FPI projection: UNLV by 6.1
Early Saturday
Baylor at Arizona (1 p.m., TNT). Arizona lost three of four in midseason, but the Wildcats have won three in a row to jump to 7-3. Compared to 2024, they’ve improved dramatically on both sides of the ball — from 90th to 30th in offensive SP+ and from 84th to 39th on defense — and that should give them an advantage against a Baylor team that typically only plays offense. Fun offense, for sure, but only offense.
Current line: Arizona -6.5 | SP+ projection: Arizona by 9.1 | FPI projection: Arizona by 4.8
Kansas at Iowa State (noon, FS1). This one’s projected to go down to the wire, which is awful news for Kansas — the Jayhawks have lost nine of their past 11 one-score games. ISU can provide hope in that regard: The Cyclones endured a 1-12 one-score run of their own a while back but have won 11 of 16 since. At 5-5 and hosting Utah next week, KU probably needs this one to assure bowl eligibility.
Current line: ISU -4.5 | SP+ projection: ISU by 4.7 | FPI projection: ISU by 3.4
Minnesota at Northwestern (noon, BTN). Just call Minnesota the Florida State of the Big Ten — the Gophers are overachieving against projections by 5.4 PPG at home and underachieving by 16.6 PPG on the road. Northwestern nearly stole one last week against Michigan and returns to Wrigley Field to give it another go. If Minnesota shows up, this could be dead even, but that’s evidently a lot to ask for.
Current line: NU -3.5 (down from -5.5) | SP+ projection: NU by 1.7 | FPI projection: NU by 3.7
Rutgers at No. 1 Ohio State (noon, Fox). We’re into November and still playing the “Ohio State will win easily, but what might we learn about the Buckeyes?” game. The OSU passing game is coming off of a semi-disappointing performance — and the status of banged-up receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate appears uncertain — so maybe we’ll learn something about Julian Sayin‘s resourcefulness?
Current line: OSU -31.5 (down from -33.5) | SP+ projection: OSU by 31.5 | FPI projection: OSU by 28.4
Saturday afternoon
Arkansas at No. 17 Texas (3:30 p.m., ABC). The return of Horns-Hogs was one of the best things about Texas joining the SEC, and after last season’s relative dud, I say we’re owed something strange. Arkansas is good enough offensively to scare (and eventually lose to) just about anyone, and Horns LB Anthony Hill Jr. is listed as questionable. Let’s see how Texas responds to last week’s damaging loss to Georgia.
Current line: UT -8.5 (down from -10.5) | SP+ projection: UT by 9.8 | FPI projection: UT by 11.2
East Carolina at UTSA (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). ECU has won 10 of 14 since replacing coach Mike Houston with Blake Harrell midway through 2024, and at 5-1 in American Conference play, the Pirates are still in the conference title race. UTSA, meanwhile, is maddening: The Roadrunners have overachieved against SP+ projections by at least 12 points three times and have underachieved by at least 10 points five times.
Current line: ECU -2.5 | SP+ projection: ECU by 5.5 | FPI projection: ECU by 3.2
Duke at North Carolina (3:30 p.m., ACCN). Since beating Clemson to announce itself as an ACC contender, Duke has face-planted, particularly on defense, losing two straight. The 5-5 Blue Devils need to beat either UNC or Wake Forest to bowl, and this feels like the more likely win. UNC just lost to Wake and might not have the offensive competence to punish even a flatlining defense such as Duke’s.
Current line: Duke -6.5 | SP+ projection: Duke by 6.6 | FPI projection: Duke by 7.2
TCU at No. 23 Houston (4 p.m., Fox). Houston’s 8-2 record has been propped up by good fortune in close games (4-0 in one-score finishes), but the Cougars have a shot at a 10-win season and could take full advantage of the fact that TCU’s offense vanished three games ago. Having underachieved against projections for five straight games, the 6-4 Horned Frogs are stumbling toward the finish line.
Current line: Houston -1.5 | SP+ projection: Houston by 2.8 | FPI projection: TCU by 0.7
Jacksonville State at Florida International (3:30 p.m., CBSSN). FIU has won two straight to get to 5-5, and a once-moribund offense is blossoming via efficiency from RB Kejon Owens and big plays from WR Alex Perry. Jax State has won 14 of 15 in CUSA play dating to last season, and RB Cam Cook is second nationally in rushing yards. This one could have some fireworks.
Current line: JSU -1.5 (flipped from FIU -1.5) | SP+ projection: JSU by 3.9 | FPI projection: JSU by 1.1
Missouri State at Kennesaw State (2 p.m., ESPN+). Missouri State has won five straight to move to 7-3 in its FBS debut. The Bears aren’t eligible for the CUSA championship game, but Kennesaw State is, and any title hopes will require an immediate bounce-back after last week’s loss to Jax State. MSU quarterback Jacob Clark trying to beat Owls corners Caleb Offord and JeRico Washington Jr. should be prime viewing.
Current line: KSU -6.5 | SP+ projection: KSU by 6.9 | FPI projection: KSU by 4.2
Syracuse at No. 9 Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., NBC). Notre Dame is a projected favorite of at least 31 points in each of its last two games, so the Fighting Irish are nearly assured of a 10-2 finish and another CFP berth. Statistically, their biggest issues at the moment are suffering some negative run plays and occasionally giving up big pass plays. I don’t think Syracuse can do anything with that.
Current line: Irish -35.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 33.3 | FPI projection: Irish by 30.1
Saturday evening
No. 20 Tennessee at Florida (7:30 p.m., ABC). Two years ago, Tennessee lost as a 5.5-point favorite in Gainesville. The Volunteers, in fact, have won only twice in Gainesville in the past 50 years. There aren’t a lot of stakes here, with UT mostly eliminated from CFP contention and Florida having clinched a losing record. But a win in The Swamp is still a win in The Swamp. It doesn’t happen often for the Vols.
Current line: UT -4.5 | SP+ projection: UT by 9.4 | FPI projection: UT by 3.7
Nebraska at Penn State (7 p.m., NBC). Since the two-game collapse that cost James Franklin his job (and, in turn, earned Nebraska head coach Matt Rhule a hefty contract extension), Penn State has been good, nearly beating Iowa and Indiana, hanging with Ohio State for a half and thumping Michigan State. Can the 4-6 Nittany Lions keep bowl hopes alive with a win over new QB TJ Lateef and Rhule’s Huskers?
Current line: PSU -8.5 | SP+ projection: PSU by 7.0 | FPI projection: PSU by 5.3
No. 21 Illinois at Wisconsin (7:30 p.m., BTN). Wisconsin’s defense has been good over the past few weeks, and Illinois’ defense finally showed up a couple of weeks ago after a poor stretch. This one should conjure some strong Big Ten West spirits, especially if we get some precipitation to go with the current 44-degrees-and-cloudy forecast for Saturday evening.
Current line: Illini -7.5 (down from -9.5) | SP+ projection: Illini by 16.6 | FPI projection: Illini by 6.0
Cal at Stanford (7:30 p.m., ACCN). Since 2001, the favorite in this matchup has gone 21-3. Unacceptable. I say we’re due a weird one, and Stanford does seem to be improving a bit. In his past two games, Cal freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has produced a Total QBR of 20.6 (against Virginia) and 86.0 (against Louisville). How will he handle his first big rivalry game?
Current line: Cal -2.5 | SP+ projection: Cal by 7.1 | FPI projection: Stanford by 0.3
Late Saturday
Washington at UCLA (10:30 p.m., NBC). Saturday’s blowout of Purdue continued a Washington theme: Against defenses worse than 50th in SP+, the Huskies average 50.8 points and 8.3 yards per play. UCLA’s defense is ranked 82nd, having given away the gains it made following Deshaun Foster’s firing. UCLA QB Nico Iamaleava is day-to-day because of injury, but nothing matters if the Bruins don’t make any stops.
Current line: UW -10.5 | SP+ projection: UW by 17.9 | FPI projection: UW by 9.0
San José State at San Diego State (10:30 p.m., FS1). SJSU’s once-prolific offense has vanished of late, scoring 26 total points in two games. Now the Spartans have to play against a defense that has given up more than 10 points only twice in eight games. SDSU can’t score either, but the Aztecs are MWC front-runners because of OLB Trey White and a ridiculous attacking front.
Current line: SDSU -12.5 | SP+ projection: SDSU by 17.2 | FPI projection: SDSU by 12.4
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s once again save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here’s what you need to track as the FCS regular season wraps up and the Division II, Division III and NAIA postseasons get underway. As I say every year around this time, the more small-school football you watch, the healthier you become.
Fusion Bowl: Curry College vs. Merchant Marine (Friday, 5 p.m., NSN). The 40-team D-III playoffs get underway Saturday, but you should spend part of Friday evening watching quarterback Bubba Mustain and a prolific Merchant Marine option game dueling with 2,400-yard rusher (!) Montie Quinn and the Curry attack.
SP+ projection: Curry by 3.0
FCS: No. 10 Harvard at No. 25 Yale (noon, ESPNU). It’s FCS Rivalry Week, and with the playoffs a week away, The Game — the winner of which will claim the Ivy League title and a first automatic FCS playoff berth — is particularly big. I’ve been talking up Harvard (third in SP+) all season, but Yale is a healthy 13th in SP+, with one of the subdivision’s best defenses. A big game, even by The Game’s standards.
SP+ projection: Harvard by 7.3
FCS: No. 4 Lehigh at No. 24 Lafayette (12:30 p.m., ESPN+). With both Lehigh and Lafayette unbeaten in the Patriot League, the 161st edition of The Rivalry is one of the biggest. This is the best Lehigh team since at least the 1970s. It would be consistent with rivalry nonsense if Lafayette were to pull an upset, but that will require points, and defensive end Matt Spatny and the Lehigh defense don’t give up many of those.
SP+ projection: Lehigh by 16.0
FCS: No. 2 Montana State at No. 3 Montana (2 p.m., ESPN+). My goodness, FCS is bringing it this week. Montana is unbeaten, and MSU hasn’t lost since an 0-2 start. The Bobcats grade out better on paper, but this game should have something for everyone, from stellar quarterback play with Keali’i Ah Yat (Montana) and Justin Lamson (MSU) to deep rushing attacks to ball-hawking secondaries. And also there’s always a stunning view in Missoula.
SP+ projection: Montana by 0.6
Division II playoffs: No. 10 Texas-Permian Basin at No. 4 Colorado State-Pueblo (3 p.m., local streaming). The D-II playoffs have expanded to 32 teams, and while the top teams are heavy first-round favorites, the CSU-Pueblo Thunderwolves are close-game addicts. Their past three games featured two three-point wins and three overtime periods. UTPB, meanwhile, has won its past four by an average of 52-14. I’ll be disappointed if this one isn’t wild and close.
SP+ projection: CSU-Pueblo by 1.3
With two weeks left in the regular season, what was once a vague picture of the College Football Playoff is finally coming into view.
Ohio State and Indiana look like sure things from the Big Ten. Georgia, Texas A&M and Ole Miss have all but punched their playoff tickets. Notre Dame and Texas Tech feel good about their odds, but all of that depends on something critical happening these last two weeks that can be boiled down to two simple words: avoid chaos.
Ah, but chaos is certainly possible.
Is Miami a contender? Can the Canes slip into the ACC title game mix?
Is Texas Tech guaranteed a bid? What happens if BYU keeps its stellar season going?
The ACC is ground zero for chaos and everyone from 9-1 Georgia Tech to 5-5 Duke still has a shot at winning the conference.
In the Big Ten, Oregon and USC will face off in what might be a de facto play-in game for the playoff.
And remember last week when Oklahoma earned a statement win against Alabama that appeared to shore up a playoff spot for the Sooners? Well, that dance card is only good as long as Oklahoma beats Missouri this week.
It’s late November, with just enough season behind us to feel as if we’ve got a real understanding of what’s ahead and just enough left on the docket to upend the whole picture and inject a fresh dose of head-spinning into the mix. — David Hale
Jump to:
Breakout players | BYU-Cincinnati
What’s at stake? | Quotes of the week
Top five breakout players this season
Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss: One of the great plot twists of this college football season has been a little-known transfer from Division II Ferris State stepping in and leading the Rebels to a 10-1 record. Lane Kiffin’s new dual-threat playmaker won a D-II national title last season and has shown no fear in moving up to SEC ball, ranking seventh nationally with 3,101 total yards, 20 total touchdowns and only four turnovers since taking over for injured starter Austin Simmons. The No. 6 Rebels struck gold with Chambliss as well as 1,110-yard rusher Kewan Lacy, a Missouri transfer, in their efforts to reload on offense and get into the CFP.
Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State: Reese entered this season with only five career starts over two seasons with the Buckeyes, eager to finally become a full-time starter for the defending national champions. The 6-foot-4, 243-pound junior is quickly playing his way into projected top-10 draft pick status as one of the most versatile defensive playmakers under first-year coordinator Matt Patricia. Reese has produced a team-high 58 tackles with 18 pressures, 10 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks as a fast, powerful off-ball linebacker who’s just as gifted at rushing off the edge for the No. 1 scoring defense in FBS.
David Bailey, OLB, Texas Tech: Bailey didn’t earn All-ACC honors last season at Stanford but was highly coveted in the transfer portal by the Red Raiders as an impact pass rusher with big-time potential. Bailey has been worth every penny, leading the country with 12.5 sacks and 61 pressures through 11 games, while playing alongside Romello Height and Lee Hunter on one of the top defensive lines in the sport. Bailey is performing like a first-round talent for a No. 5-ranked Texas Tech squad determined to win the program’s first Big 12 championship.
Cashius Howell, DE, Texas A&M: The former Bowling Green transfer had a good debut season with the Aggies in 2024, but Howell has totally raised his game in his second year in the SEC. The 6-2, 248-pound senior has been a consistently elite pass rusher for the undefeated Aggies with 11.5 sacks and 37 pressures, and could end up being a first-round pick next spring.
Ahmad Hardy, RB, Missouri: Hardy exceled during his freshman season at UL Monroe and continues to be one of the great transfer portal gets for the Tigers. He’s leading the country with 1,346 rushing yards and 15 TDs, and has forced 72 missed tackles, according to ESPN Research. Hardy just had another career-best day Saturday with a 300-yard effort against Mississippi State after already rushing for 250 yards against Louisiana, plus he has five 100-yard performances this season. — Max Olson
How could BYU-Cincinnati affect the Big 12 title race?
Texas Tech and BYU, the Big 12’s remaining one-loss teams, appear to be on course to meet again in the championship game. For them, it’s simple: win and you’re in. But as BYU learned last season when it was in the same spot through 10 games, simple doesn’t mean easy.
If the Cougars win at Cincinnati on Saturday, it would eliminate the Bearcats. Then BYU would be, at minimum, a win against UCF away from the title game. But the Cougars could also clinch a spot this weekend with two scenarios: 1) A win plus losses by Arizona State (at Colorado) and Houston (vs. TCU); or 2) A win and an Arizona State loss, plus a Utah win (Kansas State).
If BYU loses to Cincinnati, then all bets are off. Utah, Houston, Arizona State and Cincinnati are all mathematically alive. Which means that all over them can still cling to CFP hopes, as far-fetched as they might be. This is one of the obvious benefits of the playoff format. It keeps more teams relevant later in the season and ensures meaningful games across the board into the final weeks. — Kyle Bonagura
What’s at stake in each matchup?
USC-Oregon: To put it bluntly: a spot in the CFP. That’s what’s at stake in Eugene this week as the college football world sets its eyes on the one marquee matchup this week.
USC has only one Big Ten loss and should it beat the Ducks, it would qualify for not only its best win of the season but one of the best wins in the sport this year. The Trojans have the offense to keep up with the Ducks; the question is, what USC defense will show up Saturday? That will be the key to pulling off the upset and putting Lincoln Riley’s team in the driver’s seat for a CFP spot.
One-loss Oregon might have some more breathing room if it loses to USC, but it’s not a guarantee the Ducks will get in with two losses. At that point, the Ducks’ best win would be at Iowa (currently unranked) and would have to rank behind at least USC (and Michigan if it beats Ohio State) making their entry back into the field a tight one, should it happen.
Plus, not to mention the fact that Oregon finishes with a tricky game at Washington — a team that has been up-and-down this season but has plenty of talent and motivation to play spoiler against its rival. — Paolo Uggetti
Pitt-Georgia Tech: A week ago, Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi colorfully made the point that his team could give up 100 points to Notre Dame, but it wouldn’t change the fact that these next two games, starting with Georgia Tech, will define the Panthers’ postseason fate. Well, Pitt didn’t surrender 100, but Notre Dame did win easily, putting an even bigger spotlight on the Panthers’ need to win out if they want any hope of capitalizing on a wide-open ACC.
For Georgia Tech, the stakes are even clearer. This is the Yellow Jackets’ final ACC game of the season. Win, and they’re guaranteed a spot in Charlotte for the ACC championship. Lose and all bets are off. Tech’s defense has been a train wreck the past two games, and getting right against Pitt is essential to keep a magical season going a little longer. — Hale
SMU-Louisville: While much of the attention in the ACC has focused on Miami, Virginia and Georgia Tech, SMU still has a shot to make it to the ACC championship game for the second straight season. That is the biggest thing on the line Saturday. With only one conference loss, SMU sits in a four-way tie atop the ACC headed into the weekend. The easiest path to Charlotte is this one: SMU has to win out, and Pitt has to beat Georgia Tech on Saturday. There is another clinching scenario: SMU wins out, and Virginia Tech upsets Virginia next week.
Though the Mustangs do not control their destiny, the fact they are in the mix to play for a conference championship again speaks to the job coach Rhett Lashlee has done since SMU made the move to the ACC in 2024. SMU is not a one-trick pony (see what we did there), but is building a program meant to contend year after year.
“It is a little bit different than last year because we were in control of everything,” Lashlee said. “This year, it’s almost like a playoff scenario already. Nobody’s talking about us, and I’m totally cool with that.” — Andrea Adelson
Quotes of the week
“Brent Key, a great football coach who’s done an outstanding job,” Pitt’s Pat Narduzzi said of Georgia Tech’s fourth-year head coach. “They might as well just announce him as ACC Coach of the Year. He’s done an incredible job. Just give it to him early.”
“I think for us, these are all the same people that thought we were going to suck,” USC coach Lincoln Riley said on the 8-2 Trojans’ Week 13 appearance on College GameDay. “This is all the same people, you know, we were going to do this and USC was this and that. And so for us to pay attention to them now would be a little bit counterproductive. We haven’t forgotten that.”
Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin on if he expects to be coaching in the Nov. 29 Egg Bowl: “Do you know something that I don’t know? Do I expect to coach next week? Why would I not expect to coach next week? I mean, I expected to coach against Florida, too. So I don’t even understand the question about how I would not expect to coach next week. Why would I [not] be at work?”
“I’ve had no discussions, not with my agent, not with the university, not with any other school, not with any NFL team, about ever going anywhere else,” said Texas’ Steve Sarkisian, who knocked down rumors around a potential departure this week. “I came here to win championships.”
Colorado’s Deion Sanders appealed for more time with the Buffaloes this week: “You’ve got the right man [for the job]. I promise you, you do. And I’m going to prove that to you. Just give me an opportunity and a little more time, and I’m going to prove that to you.”
“Does it look, feel, smell and operate like a big-time program?” James Franklin said of his plans for Virginia Tech in his introductory news conference with the Hokies. “All those things need to be in place. … I think the previous coaches here were in some challenging situations. That’s the truth of it. There’s some things that we’re going to have to look at, and it’s not just James Franklin. It’s the marketing office, the ticketing office. Everybody’s got to take some time and look in the mirror and say, ‘Are we operating like a big-time program?'”
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Jorge Castillo
NEW YORK — A year after discovering teams across Major League Baseball did not deem him worthy of a lengthy contract, Pete Alonso is back on the free agent market searching for long-term love again.
In February, after an extended standoff, Alonso settled for a two-year, $54 million deal to return to the New York Mets with an opt-out after the 2025 season. He was paid $30 million for this year and posted numbers good enough to make opting out the clear choice. And Alonso didn’t waste time, announcing that was his plan minutes after the Mets lost their final regular-season game against the Miami Marlins to fall short of the playoffs.
His chances of finding a long-term partner are higher this time around for a few reasons. The first one is clear: He’s coming off a significantly stronger campaign. Alonso had his worst season in 2024, slashing .240/.329/.459 with 34 home runs. That, in a vacuum, was good production. But it was his fourth straight season with declining numbers — an alarming pattern considering Alonso was about to turn 30 and didn’t add value on defense or the basepaths.
The metrics suggested Alonso was still one of the worst defensive first basemen in baseball in 2025 — his minus-9 defensive runs saved and minus-9 outs above average both ranked 18th out of 18 qualified first basemen — but he rebounded in the batter’s box. With an adjusted swing and approach, Alonso hit the ball harder — his 93.5 mph average exit velocity was a career high — and the production followed.
He slashed .272/.347/.524 with 38 home runs and 126 RBIs mostly hitting behind Juan Soto. His 141 wRC+ was tied for the second-largest output of his career. He set the franchise record for career home runs, further solidifying his place as one of the most beloved Mets in recent history.
Also of note: Alonso played in all 162 games for the second consecutive season and has appeared in 1,008 of the Mets’ 1,032 regular-season games since debuting in 2019. He has started 993 of those games at first base, 60 at DH.
Over that span, his 264 career home runs rank third in baseball behind only Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber, a fellow free agent. Alonso is durable and consistent.
Then there’s the market. Alonso and Schwarber are the two premier power bats available in free agency this offseason. At first base, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s decision to sign a 14-year, $500 million extension with Toronto in April removed Alonso’s stiffest positional competition. Josh Naylor is a tier below — and a different player with less power but better defensively and on the bases — and Seattle wasn’t going to spend the necessary money for Alonso, but the Mariners retaining their first baseman nevertheless removes an option at the position for other clubs.
Add it up and Alonso should find a deal in the range of four to five years. The question is where. Here are a few possible landing spots for the five-time All-Star, starting with his three most aggressive suitors so far, including the only team he has ever known.
Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said last week that he would “love” to bring back Alonso and closer Edwin Diaz, another All-Star free agent. Alonso’s stated willingness to serve as a designated hitter, at least in a part-time capacity, doesn’t hurt as the Mets prioritize improving a defense that regressed in 2025.
“He’s clearly a really good offensive player,” Stearns said at the GM meetings in Las Vegas. “And I think for any team the ability to get his bat in the lineup in multiple ways is helpful. And it’s great to know that Pete is open to stuff like that.”
But the Mets’ top offseason priority is pitching — in the rotation and the bullpen — and they have internal options for first base and DH in the short and long term. Mark Vientos, Brett Baty and Jeff McNeil could play first base. Juan Soto, after a poor defensive year in right field, will eventually see time at DH. Further, Stearns’ unwillingness to give Alonso what he wanted last winter indicates he prefers not to make that level of investment in him.
The Mets haven’t had someone other than Alonso start at first base on Opening Day since Adrián González began a 54-game cameo to conclude his career in 2018. A year later, Alonso debuted and went on to club 54 home runs en route to being named National League Rookie of the Year. He became a fan favorite in Queens over his seven seasons. But he could find himself in another uniform in 2026.
First base production in 2025: .244/.305/.386, 16 HR, 86 wRC+, -0.7 fWAR
Primary first basemen: Abraham Toro (57 starts), Romy Gonzalez (41), Triston Casas (27), Nathaniel Lowe (26)
Designated hitter production in 2025: .272/.361/.465, 26 HR, 125 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR
Primary designated hitters: Rafael Devers (73), Masataka Yoshida (44), Rob Refsnyder (18), Roman Anthony (17)
Most of Boston’s DH production last season came from Devers before he was traded in June. First base was a major problem beginning with Casas’ slow start and exacerbated when he was lost for the season with a knee injury in early May. The logical choice to replace him — Devers — refused the assignment, which led to Boston shipping him to San Francisco.
Toro, Gonzalez and Lowe, who was signed in August, handled the duty for the remainder of the season. Toro was designated for assignment in August. Lowe met the same fate Tuesday.
The Red Sox president of baseball operations, Craig Breslow, has made it clear: He wants to acquire an accomplished middle-of-the-order bat, preferably a right-handed one. Trading Devers, combined with Alex Bregman‘s free agency, has left the Red Sox without much proven slug in their lineup. A reunion with Bregman would check that box. As would signing Alonso, who could split time at first base and DH with Casas if Boston were to keep him.
Do the Red Sox have the appetite for both free agents? Trading Devers moved $29.1 million off the competitive balance tax payroll for each of the next eight years. The Red Sox had approximately $98 million of their relatively modest $201 million CBT payroll come off the books after the season. Their 2026 payroll is projected to include more than $50 million in raises, but Boston is a big-market club with plenty of money to fill its needs.
First base production in 2025: .252/.318/.445, 29 HR, 107 wRC+, 2.0 fWAR
Primary first basemen: Spencer Steer (113 starts), Christian Encarnacion-Strand (25)
Designated hitter production in 2025: .240/.313/.407, 21 HR, 96 wRC+, -0.2 fWAR
Primary designated hitters: Gavin Lux (57 starts), Austin Hays (38), Miguel Andujar (20), Tyler Stephenson (17), Steer (16)
The Reds finished 14th in the majors in runs scored, but their collective 92 wRC+, a metric that adjusts for park factors and league context, ranked 24th. The Reds know there’s room for improvement playing half of their games at Great American Ball Park, a hitter’s haven, so they’re seeking to strengthen their offense.
First base and DH aren’t obvious needs. Spencer Steer clubbed 21 home runs in 146 games. Sal Stewart, who turns 22 next month, will be a bigger part of the calculus after posting a 121 OPS+ in his first 18 career games. But Alonso resides on another level. As does Schwarber, a Cincinnati-area native.
Now, the money part. Signing either slugger would require the largest free agent contract in franchise history; the current high mark is the two four-year, $64 million deals given to Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas in 2020. The Reds are estimated to carry a $120 million CBT payroll for next season after finishing with a $143 million payroll in 2025, their highest since 2021. That projection includes expected raises. If investing in a premier free agent is too rich — or if they all simply decide to play elsewhere — the Reds could land a cheaper alternative in the trade market by dealing from their starting rotation depth.
First base production in 2025: .262/.351/.479, 32 HR, 128 wRC+, 3.9 fWAR
Primary first basemen: Bryce Harper (130 starts)
Designated hitter production in 2025: .238/.362/.566, 57 HR, 152 wRC+, 5.1 fWAR
Primary designated hitters: Kyle Schwarber (154 starts)
With Bryce Harper at first base, Alonso probably would only make sense for the Phillies if they do not re-sign Schwarber — the best designated hitter in the majors this side of Shohei Ohtani. But Phillies owner John Middleton isn’t afraid to spend money, and the team could make both Alonso and Schwarber work by moving Harper back to the outfield. Offensively, Alonso’s right-handed bat makes sense, since the Phillies are expected to move on from Nick Castellanos, catcher J.T. Realmuto is a free agent, and Alec Bohm is a candidate for a trade.
First base production in 2025: .246/.323/.411, 18 HR, 103 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR
Primary first basemen: Spencer Horwitz (93 starts), Enmanuel Valdez (22)
Designated hitter production in 2025: .238/.328/.390, 19 HR, 98 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR
Primary designated hitters: Andrew McCutchen (120 starts), Bryan Reynolds (34)
This is a long shot, but the Pirates want to spend money on upgrading their offense to complement a strong pitching staff headlined by Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes. Like the A’s last winter in their quest to upgrade their starting rotation, that could require overpaying for an impact bat. The price of doing business.
First base production in 2025: .243/.310/.369, 14 HR, 92 wRC+, 0.6 fWAR
Primary first basemen: Coby Mayo (67 starts), Ryan Mountcastle (50), Ryan O’Hearn (39)
Designated hitter production in 2025: .221/.296/.380, 22 HR, 90 wRC+, -0.5 fWAR
Primary designated hitters: Mountcastle (33 starts), O’Hearn (31), Adley Rutschman (18), Jordan Westburg (16), Tyler O’Neill (13)
At the GM meetings, Orioles general manager Mike Elias said he wanted to add a power hitter, preferably an outfielder, this offseason. Acquiring Taylor Ward for right-hander Grayson Rodriguez on Tuesday checked that box. But they could always add more slug and Alonso would give them plenty.
Designated hitter production in 2025: .282/.354/.484, 34 HR, 133 wRC+, 3.6 fWAR
Primary designated hitters: George Springer (80 starts), Anthony Santander (30), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (24)
This fit isn’t clean, but the Blue Jays could lose the right-handed-hitting Bo Bichette in free agency this winter and Alonso could serve as a replacement. The Blue Jays expressed interest in Alonso last winter, but that was when Guerrero’s future was very uncertain. We’re not even going to bother listing first base as a possibility for Alonso in Toronto because that’s Guerrero’s job for a very long time. Springer enjoyed a resurgent season primarily as Toronto’s DH, so he would have to move back to the outfield to make room for Alonso.
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