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One of the biggest talking points of this year’s campaign was how the army of Republican candidates backed by Trump would do, how influential the former president still is and whether his seal of approval carries weight with the electorate at large as well as with his base.

Mr Trump officially endorsed 174 of the 430 Republican House candidates, and analysis of results from just over half of counties suggests he didn’t help them very much.

In counties with candidates backed by Trump, the Republican vote share increased by 2.1 percentage points compared to the 2020 presidential election. That’s well short of the 8 percentage point increase for the party in counties without Trump-endorsed Republicans.

The difference was largest in areas defended by the Democrats, but was still clear in districts that were held by Republicans before polling day.

Who’s winning? Follow the latest results live

Trump-backed candidates have fared even worse in Senate races, with the Republican vote share falling. In areas where they were challenging an incumbent Democrat, the decrease was 1.2 percentage points.

But when the Republican challenger to a sitting Democrat wasn’t backed by Trump, the Republican vote share increased by 7 percentage points.

Similar patterns were seen in the races to unseat Democratic Governors and Secretaries-of-State. Here the Republican vote share fell in areas where candidates had a Trump endorsement and rose where they didn’t.

Election deniers

While Trump’s endorsement may not have helped Republican candidates, those who doubted or denied the legitimacy of Joe Biden’s election in 2020 did well.

Of the 430 Republican candidates for the House, 224 had previously either denied or cast doubt on the legitimacy of that election. Those candidates performed relatively well, increasing the Republican vote in their areas by 6.7 percentage points (compared to 4.9 percentage points for other Republican candidates).

But it didn’t seem to help the Republicans gain seats. Election-deniers were relatively successful when defending Republican seats, but didn’t do any better than other Republicans when taking on sitting Democrats.

Nevertheless, many election-deniers won their races. Of the 33 new Republicans in Congress, 21 have cast doubt on the 2020 presidential result. That includes seven of the 12 Republicans who gained House seats from the Democrats.

Two of those 12 are not entirely new to the building they will now call their office. George Santos (NY-3) and Derrick Van Orden (WI-3) were both present outside the Capitol on 6th January last year, attending a pro-Trump election-denial rally which culminated in the violent storming of the US legislature.

For Republican Senate candidates, denying the 2020 presidential election may have done them more harm than good. Their vote share fell by 2.4 percentage points, while candidates who haven’t denied Joe Biden’s legitimacy as president saw an increase of 6.2 percentage points.

This analysis is based on results from just over half of counties, so may not be representative of the final outcome but at least gives us a glimpse of how things are going as we look ahead to the next election in 2024.

The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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US Supreme Court rejects appeal request from Ghislaine Maxwell

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US Supreme Court rejects appeal request from Ghislaine Maxwell

The US Supreme Court has rejected an appeal request from Ghislaine Maxwell, the imprisoned ex-girlfriend of Jeffrey Epstein, over her criminal conviction.

Maxwell was sentenced in June 2022 to 20 years in prison after being convicted in December 2021 on sex trafficking charges.

Her lawyers argued she never should have been tried or convicted for her role in luring teenage girls to be sexually abused by Epstein.

Undated picture of Ghislaine Maxwell with Jeffrey Epstein. File pic: US Department of Justice
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Undated picture of Ghislaine Maxwell with Jeffrey Epstein. File pic: US Department of Justice

Undated picture of Ghislaine Maxwell with Jeffrey Epstein. File pic: US Department of Justice
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Undated picture of Ghislaine Maxwell with Jeffrey Epstein. File pic: US Department of Justice

The nine justices declined to take up a case that would have drawn renewed attention to the sexual-abuse saga.

US President Donald Trump and his administration, which urged the court not to accept the case, have been condemned for refusing to publicly release all the files from Epstein’s case.

Maxwell was moved from a low-security federal prison in Florida to a minimum-security prison camp in Texas after she was interviewed by Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche in July.

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Trump and Epstein statue appears outside US Capitol

As usual, the justices on the highest court in the US did not explain why they turned down the appeal.

Maxwell’s legal team argued she shouldn’t have faced prosecution because of a deal that Epstein, who took his own life while in prison in 2019, made with federal prosecutors in Miami.

The 2007 agreement protected his “potential co-conspirators” from federal charges anywhere in the country, they said.

Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida with Jeffrey Epstein in 1997. Pic: Getty Images
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Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida with Jeffrey Epstein in 1997. Pic: Getty Images

Jeffrey Epstein. File pic: New York State Sex Offender Registry/AP
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Jeffrey Epstein. File pic: New York State Sex Offender Registry/AP

Maxwell was prosecuted in Manhattan, and the federal appeals court there ruled that the prosecution was proper.

A jury found her guilty of sex trafficking a teenage girl, among other charges.

Maxwell was given limited immunity when Mr Blanche interviewed her over the summer, allowing her to speak freely without fear of prosecution for anything she said except for in the event of a false statement.

She repeatedly denied seeing any sexually inappropriate interactions involving Mr Trump, according to records released in August meant to distance the president from the disgraced financer.

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As the president was arriving in the UK for his second state visit, his image was being projected on to the side of Windsor Castle alongside that of Jeffrey Epstein.

Epstein was arrested in 2019 on sex trafficking charges and was accused of sexually abusing dozens of teenage girls.

A month later, he was found dead in a New York jail cell in what investigators described as a suicide.

Maxwell’s move to a lower security facility was criticised by the family of Epstein abuse survivor Virginia Giuffre, who died in April, and accusers Annie and Maria Farmer.

Describing Maxwell as a “sexual predator who physically assaulted minor children on multiple occasions”, they said in a statement the transfer “smacks of a cover up. The victims deserve better”.

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Epstein survivors demand release of all files

When it announced in July that no additional documents from the investigation would be released, the US Justice Department declared that Epstein had killed himself, despite conspiracy theories to the contrary.

Read more on Sky News:
Who is in latest Epstein files release?
Epstein victims condemn Maxwell treatment
Duchess dropped by charities over Epstein links

A “client list” that US Attorney General Pam Bondi had intimated was on her desk did not actually exist, the department said.

This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.

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Donald Trump authorises deployment of 300 National Guard troops to Chicago

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Donald Trump authorises deployment of 300 National Guard troops to Chicago

Donald Trump has ordered the deployment of 300 National Guard members to Chicago, the latest in a string of cities where US troops have been sent.

White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson confirmed the US president authorised the move, citing what she called “ongoing violent riots and lawlessness” that local leaders have not quelled.

“President Trump will not turn a blind eye to the lawlessness plaguing American cities,” Ms Jackson said.

Chicago is the latest city in the US where Mr Trump has authorised the deployment of US troops, as it follows similar orders for Los Angeles, Washington and Portland.

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What’s it like having the army on DC’s streets?

Democratic governor JB Pritzker branded the move unnecessary and “a manufactured performance – not a serious effort to protect public safety”.

The Illinois governor said in a statement: “This morning, the Trump administration’s Department of War gave me an ultimatum: call up your troops, or we will.

“It is absolutely outrageous and un-American to demand a governor send military troops within our own borders and against our will.”

Read more from Sky News:
Japan set for first female prime minister

Why Trump accepted the Hamas peace plan response

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It comes as an attempt by the Trump administration to deploy the National Guard in Portland, Oregon, was temporarily blocked by a federal judge in a lawsuit brought by the state and city.

The plaintiffs said a deployment would violate the US constitution as well as a federal law that generally prohibits the military from being used to enforce domestic laws.

Mr Trump ordered the deployment of troops to “war-ravaged Portland” last week, authorising the use of “full force” if needed.

The move came after a gunman opened fire on an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) field office in Dallas, wounding two detainees and killing another.

Mr Trump sent the National Guard to Los Angeles over the summer and to Washington DC, as part of his law enforcement takeover there.

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Trump says Gaza ceasefire will begin ‘immediately’ when Hamas confirms deal

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Trump says Gaza ceasefire will begin 'immediately' when Hamas confirms deal

Donald Trump has said a ceasefire in Gaza will begin “immediately” after Hamas agrees to a new US plan to end the war.

The US president said Israel had “agreed to the initial withdrawal line” and “when Hamas confirms”, the ceasefire will start, Israeli hostages will be released and a prisoner exchange will begin.

In a post on his Truth Social platform, Mr Trump said it would “create the conditions for the next phase of withdrawal, which will bring us close to the end of this 3,000-year catastrophe”.

Pic: Reuters
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Pic: Reuters

It came as Hamas accused the Israeli government of lying about reducing its military operations, accusing it of continuing to “commit its horrific crimes and massacres” against Palestinians in Gaza, claiming 70 people had been killed by strikes since Saturday morning.

The group said it “exposes the false claims of the war criminal Netanyahu’s government regarding scaling back military operations against defenceless civilians”.

It comes after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he hopes to announce the release of all hostages from Gaza “in the coming days”.

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Hostage release could happen ‘in coming days’

Mr Netanyahu made the remarks as indirect talks with Hamas continue in Egypt on a new US plan to end the war.

Speaking after Hamas said it had accepted some elements of the plan, Mr Netanyahu said he had sent the delegation to Egypt “to finalise technical details”, adding that “our goal is to contain these negotiations to a timeframe of a few days”.

Donald Trump has welcomed Hamas’s statement, but on Saturday warned the group “must move quickly, or else all bets will be off”.

Read more:
Why Trump accepted the Hamas peace plan response
Sky News investigation reveals Israel’s support for Gaza militia

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Sky News witnesses Israeli offensive in Gaza City

Trump orders Israel to stop bombing Gaza

Earlier in the day, Israel’s army said the country’s leaders had instructed it to prepare for the first phase of the US plan to end the war in Gaza.

Israel has moved to a defensive-only position in Gaza and will not actively strike, one official said, adding that no forces have been removed from the territory.

It came hours after Mr Trump ordered Israel to stop bombing Gaza after Hamas said it accepted some elements of his plan.

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Are we at the ‘end game’ of the Gaza war?

What’s in the peace plan?

Mr Trump’s proposed plan to end the war has widespread international support and on Friday, Mr Netanyahu’s office said Israel was committed to bringing the conflict to an end.

Under the plan, Hamas would release the remaining 48 hostages, of which around 20 are believed to still be alive, within three days. It would also give up power in Gaza and disarm.

In return, Israel would end its offensive and withdraw from much of Gaza, as well as release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and allow an influx of humanitarian aid and eventual reconstruction.

Hamas has said it is willing to release the hostages and hand over power to other Palestinians, but argued other aspects of the plan require further consultations among Palestinians. Its statement did not address the issue of Hamas demilitarising, which is a key part of the deal.

Warning ‘extremists on both sides’ could sabotage peace plan

A group representing some families of hostages said the prospect of seeing their loved ones return “has never been closer” and they appealed to Mr Trump to keep pushing “with full force”.

They warned “extremists on both sides” would try to sabotage the plan.

The war began when Hamas attacked Israel on 7 October 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking 251 hostage.

Since then, at least 67,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, according to the enclave’s Hamas-run health ministry, which does not differentiate between civilians and combatants in its count, but says women and children make up around half of the dead.

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