Hot stove survey: Where will deGrom and Judge sign? Who will get traded? MLB execs weigh in
Nearly a month into the MLB offseason, we’re still awaiting the first big splash.
While we wait for the movement to pick up entering next week’s winter meetings in San Diego, we asked a panel of experts to weigh in on what they think the rest of the offseason will bring.
Where will Aaron Judge sign? Who will sign the four star shortstops? Which ace is most likely to leave his current team? And who will be the big names in the trade market?
We polled a dozen team executives and MLB insiders from across both leagues about free-agent landing spots and who’s likely to get moved in trades this offseason. Voters were assured anonymity and were given the option to skip any questions that hit too close to home.
Here’s how they voted — and what they had to say about their picks.
Will Aaron Judge get a package worth more than $320 million and who will he sign with?
Yes: 7
No: 4
New York Yankees: 6
Los Angeles Dodgers: 3
San Francisco Giants: 2
Our voters think Judge is going to one of three teams, but there is a split on which one and how much money he’ll get. Either way, he’ll likely end up with a contract for about $100 million more than the Yankees offered ($213.5 million) last spring.
“He gambled and showed up, but I’m going to say he comes in a bit below [$320 million] and comes home to the West Coast,” one voter said of the California native. “Dodgers or Giants. Sounds like Dodgers to me.”
Which shortstop will get the most dollars and years in free agency?
Trea Turner: 7
Carlos Correa: 5
There are four coveted shortstops in this free-agent class, but our panel believes Turner and Correa are in line for the biggest paydays. Correa, 28, was a popular answer due to his age, but Turner, 29, won the vote.
“I think his [Turner’s] skill set ages the best,” one voter said. “Correa has had a couple injuries, while speed doesn’t slump, right? All long-term contracts are a risk, but give me a guy with Turner’s athleticism any day.”
Where will the four big free-agent shortstops sign?
Turner: Philadelphia Phillies 6, Dodgers 4, Giants 2
Correa: Yankees 4, Minnesota Twins 3, Giants 3, Chicago Cubs 1, Boston Red Sox 1
Dansby Swanson: Atlanta Braves 6, Cubs 2, Dodgers 2, Giants 2
Xander Bogaerts: Red Sox 4, Giants 4, Dodgers 2, Yankees 1, Cubs 1
Amazingly, the Giants showed up in the vote for every shortstop. Of course, San Francisco’s public stance on a willingness to spend could have influenced this. But as you might expect, there’s no real consensus on where each shortstop will sign. Executives showed the same uncertainty for last offseason’s shortstop class. It should make for a wild winter of musical chairs at the position.
“Dave Dombrowski isn’t going to sit on his hands,” said one voter who chose Turner to the Phillies. “His owner seems to be on the same page. I almost wonder how the Phillies don’t get one of them.”
“I just think if the Giants don’t get Judge, where else can they sign up a star player?,” another voter responded.” If they get Judge, then I would vote no on a shortstop. Until then, I think they will get one.”
Yes: 4
No: 8
The majority of our voters believe deGrom will return to the team he has spent his entire career with despite the ace testing the free-agent market this winter. Should he leave New York, it would be a surprise to at least one of our respondents if the Mets didn’t do something else soon after losing him.
“I think deGrom will leave the Mets, but they’ll move to quickly replace him,” a voter said.
Yes: 9
No: 3
On the other hand, our participants think that the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner will start the new season with someone other than the reigning World Series champions.
“Houston has so much pitching, they can let Verlander walk and spend elsewhere [like they did on Jose Abreu],” one executive said.
Which top pitcher after Verlander and deGrom will provide the most value: Carlos Rodon, Kodai Senga, Taijuan Walker or Chris Bassitt?
Bassitt: 5
Rodon: 5
Senga: 2
The fact that Senga got votes says a lot about his reputation as an ace in Japan considering he has yet to pitch in the big leagues. Meanwhile, the left-handed Rodon appears to have shed any durability questions after making 31 starts and pitching 178 innings in 2022. But it was the right-handed Bassitt who won this vote. Bassitt’s ERA has been higher than Rodon’s in each of the past two seasons, but in terms of pure value, the righty edged out the lefty.
“I like Rodon in one game for my season, but long term, I think Bassitt is probably the best value,” one voter said.
“It’s really not fair to judge Senga, so I voted for Bassitt as the safest bet,” another voter said.
Which team (outside of yours) will make the biggest splash this offseason?
Giants: 3
Phillies: 2
Texas Rangers: 2
Dodgers: 2
Red Sox: 1
Yankees: 1
Cubs: 1
The variety of teams given in this answer is a good indication of where baseball is right now: with a lot of teams that think they can make the postseason and, more importantly, win the World Series — and with money to spend to help that cause. Texas might not be an October favorite today, but it should be a hot stove player.
“I know the Rangers did it [spent] last season,” one voter opined, “but I don’t see why they won’t again. Bruce Bochy didn’t unretire to sit at home in October. This year they’ll add pitching. You can count on that.”
Who will be the most notable player traded this winter?
Sean Murphy: 3
Pablo Lopez: 3
Lucas Giolito: 2
Bryan Reynolds: 2
Corbin Burnes: 2
Fernando Tatis Jr.: 1
Kolten Wong: 1
Some executives answered who was most likely to be traded as much as who will be the most notable, while the Tatis voter didn’t explain his choice — but certainly raised eyebrows with his pick.
“Lopez is such a good trade option at a much lower monetary cost for teams after some of the big free-agent pitchers come off the board,” one evaluator said. “With two seasons of control, Miami should get a nice haul.”
How much do MLB’s 2023 rule changes impact your offseason’s decision-making: a lot, some or not at all?
Not at all: 6
Some: 4
A lot: 0
Among the new rules, the elimination of the shift is most likely to impact roster construction, according to executives at the general manager’s meetings earlier this month. But they also say they don’t have a complete picture yet. Teams need to see it all in action before they know how it will impact decision-making in the future.
“Obviously, you can’t hide nonathletic second basemen anymore, but what we don’t know is how much the running game will be impacted by all these changes — both behind the plate and on the bases,” one voter said. “I don’t think the pitch clock will do much to roster construction long term.”
Mike Sullivan, who led the Pittsburgh Penguins to back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2016 and 2017, is out as the team’s head coach, it was announced Monday.
Sullivan was the longest-tenured coach in Penguins history after just completing his 10th season. The 57-year-old, who also coached Team USA at the 4 Nations Face-Off, was under contract in Pittsburgh through 2026-27.
In a statement, Penguins GM Kyle Dubas said the decision was “the best course forward for all involved” as Pittsburgh navigates a transitional period.
“On behalf of Fenway Sports Group and the Penguins organization, I would like to thank Mike Sullivan for his unwavering commitment and loyalty to the team and City of Pittsburgh over the past decade,” Dubas said. “Mike is known for his preparation, focus and fierce competitiveness. I was fortunate to have a front-row seat to his dedication to this franchise for the past two seasons. He will forever be an enormous part of Penguins history, not only for the impressive back-to-back Cups, his impact on the core of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang and Bryan Rust, but more importantly, for his love and loyalty to the organization. This was not a decision that was taken lightly, but as we continue to navigate the Penguins through this transitional period, we felt it was the best course forward for all involved.”
The Penguins have missed the playoffs for three straight seasons as Dubas works to retool the team into a contender while Crosby is still competing at a high level. Crosby just completed his 20th straight season in which he posted a point-per-game scoring pace, and he was voted by his peers in the NHLPA as the league’s most complete player. The captain is under contract through next season on a two-year extension he signed prior to the 2024-25 season.
Sullivan was elevated to Penguins head coach in 2015 after leading the organization’s AHL team in Wilkes-Barre. With 409 wins in Pittsburgh, he leaves as the Penguins’ all-time wins leader.
With Sullivan’s departure, there are now seven head-coaching vacancies in the NHL. The Boston Bruins, Chicago Blackhawks, Philadelphia Flyers, Anaheim Ducks, Seattle Kraken and New York Rangers are also searching for new coaches right now. According to sources, Sullivan has been atop the Rangers’ wish list.
Sources also said Sullivan is keen on coaching again next season and will be a top candidate for several of the vacancies. Sullivan worked as an assistant coach with the Rangers and as both an assistant and head coach with the Bruins earlier in his career.
Home teams are on a tear in the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs, going 21-10 thus far. Will that trend continue Monday?
The early matchup is Game 4 of the Battle of Florida, and the festivities have become heated; Tampa Bay Lightning forward Brandon Hagel was given a major penalty for his hit on Florida Panthers captain Aleksander Barkov in Game 2, and subsequently suspended for Game 3. In that game, Matthew Tkachuk leveled a hard hit on Jake Guentzel but did not receive the same punishment. What will transpire in Game 4?
In the nightcap, the clash of West titans continues, as the Colorado Avalanche look to keep the momentum going after their 4-0 victory over the Dallas Stars in Game 4 on Saturday.
Read on for game previews with statistical insights from ESPN Research, recaps of what went down in Sunday’s games, and the Three Stars of Sunday Night from Arda Öcal.
Matchup notes
Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers
Game 4 (FLA leads 2-1) | 7 p.m. ET | ESPN
Teams that hold a 2-1 series lead have gone on to win the best-of-seven matchup 69% of the time in Stanley Cup playoff history. The Panthers have won two out of three best-of-seven series when holding a 2-1 lead, and the Lightning are 6-7 all time when trailing 2-1.
Jake Guentzel had three points (goal, two assists) in Game 3, and his 40 career playoff goals are third most among active U.S.-born players, trailing Patrick Kane (53) and Chris Kreider (48).
With his win in Game 3, Andrei Vasilevskiy now has 67 for his postseason career, second most among active goaltenders (behind Marc-Andre Fleury, who has 92), and one behind Andy Moog for 11th on the all-time list.
Matthew Tkachuk scored his third goal of the series in Game 3, and became the third player in franchise history with 20 career playoffs goals (Carter Verhaeghe 26, Sam Reinhart 22); he is also the third Panther to record 50 playoff points for the club (Aleksander Barkov 62, Verhaeghe 54).
Aaron Ekblad‘s return from suspension didn’t go so well. According to Stathletes, Ekblad and Gustav Forsling played 10:50 together at 5-on-5, and the Lightning scored three goals while they were on the ice.
Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars
Game 5 (series tied 2-2) | 9:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
With the series tied 2-2, history is on the Stars’ side: Colorado is 11-12 when a series is tied 2-2. Dallas has gone 18-14 in the same scenario.
Nathan MacKinnon is up to 52 career playoff goals, which is six away from tying Peter Forsberg for second in Avalanche/Nordiques franchise history; Joe Sakic is first with 84.
Gabriel Landeskog made his return to the ice in Game 3 for the first time since the 2022 Stanley Cup Final, and scored a goal in Game 4, the 28th playoff goal of his career.
Mikko Rantanen (formerly of the Avs, now of the Stars) has only one point (an assist) through four games, but it’s not for a lack of trying; he has 12 shots on goal, which is second most on the team this postseason (Roope Hintz has 13).
Stars goalie Jake Oettinger was pulled in Game 4, just the fourth time in 49 career playoff starts he has played 40 minutes or less. Since 2022, Oettinger has the second-most postseason wins (25), behind Sergei Bobrovsky (34).
Arda’s three stars from Sunday night
Svechnikov potted a hat trick to lift the Canes to a 5-2 win against the Devils in Newark, giving them a 3-1 series lead. Svechnikov is the only Hurricanes/Whalers player in franchise history (45 seasons, 205 playoff games) with a hat trick in the playoffs (he now has two).
His two goals in the third period tied the game at 3, setting the stage for the Oilers to win in OT and tie up the series. Bouchard is now the fourth defenseman to have back-to-back multigoal games in Stanley Cup playoff history.
After two points over the first three games of the series, Neighbors scored a goal and added two assists as the Blues emphatically tied the series with a 5-1 victory in Game 4.
Sunday’s scores
St. Louis Blues 5, Winnipeg Jets 1
Series tied 2-2 | Game 5 Wednesday
Although he is the overwhelming favorite to win the Vezina Trophy as the NHL’s best goalie in the regular season, Connor Hellebuyck is not having a great time this postseason. He was pulled in the third period of this loss after giving up five goals on 18 shots. Winnipeg’s Kyle Connor opened the scoring in this game, but the Blues charged back with five straight goals off the sticks of Jake Neighbours, Tyler Tucker, Brayden Schenn, Justin Faulk and Robert Thomas. The home team has won every game in this series. Will that continue in Game 5 in Winnipeg? Full recap.
0:51
Tyler Tucker puts the Blues ahead with a goal
Tyler Tucker scores in the second period to give the Blues a 2-1 lead over the Jets.
Carolina Hurricanes 5, New Jersey Devils 2
CAR leads 3-1 | Game 5 Tuesday
After the Canes went up 3-0, the Devils punched back with two second-period goals, and Carolina starting goalie Frederik Andersen was knocked out after a collision with New Jersey’s Timo Meier. However, that was as close as the Devils would get, as Brent Burns added a goal at 14:14 of the third, and Andrei Svechnikov finished off his hat trick with an empty-net goal to seal the deal. Full recap.
2:05
Andrei Svechnikov scores his second career playoff hat trick
Andrei Svechnikov lit the ice with his second career playoff hat trick in Game 4 vs. the Devils.
Washington Capitals 5, Montreal Canadiens 2
WSH leads 3-1 | Game 5 Wednesday
The Bell Centre was rocking again for this one. Washington’s Dylan Strome started the scoring at 1:25 of the second period, but the Canadiens answered back with two power-play goals (from Juraj Slafkovsky and Cole Caufield) to take the lead heading into the third. However, the Caps proved they were the better team, tying it 6:39 into the third, taking the lead 10 minutes later and then pumping in two empty-netters to put it out of reach. Full recap.
0:39
Andrew Mangiapane’s big-time goal gives Caps a lead in the 3rd period
Andrew Mangiapane notches a big-time goal to give the Capitals a lead late in the third period.
Edmonton Oilers 4, Los Angeles Kings 3 (OT)
Series tied 2-2 | Game 5 Tuesday
Another back-and-forth contest for these two teams. The Kings held a 3-1 lead heading into the third, thanks to goals from Trevor Moore, Warren Foegele and Kevin Fiala. But the Oilers came back, thanks to a pair of goals by Evan Bouchard (both of which were assisted by Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid) to send the game to overtime. Draisaitl then scored the winner on the power play with just 1:42 left in the extra session. Full recap.
1:14
Leon Draisaitl’s OT winner evens the series for the Oilers
Leon Draisaitl nets the winning goal in overtime to give the Oilers a dramatic win over the Kings in Game 4.
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