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The rate of spending this offseason has been both frantic and jarring, with more than $2 billion lavished on the 10 most expensive free agents in a span of less than 10 weeks. But the most intriguing free agent in baseball history still looms. In 10 months, barring a last-minute extension with the Los Angeles Angels, it’ll be Shohei Ohtani‘s turn to venture into the open market. And one number keeps being brought up by the many who have pondered the two-way star’s next contract:

$500 million.

Five offseasons ago, when his salary was compressed and his potential was limitless, the entire industry lined up to recruit Ohtani from Japan. He was too young for free agency then, which made him attainable through the major league minimum and controllable for up to six seasons. Soon, of course, there will be no ceiling on Ohtani’s compensation. But some expect his market to be nearly as robust again, given the outlandish expectations that he has already exceeded. And guessing Ohtani’s potential free agent contract has evolved into a fun game throughout his sport. A sampling from those we asked:

  • A former player and current analyst predicted a new record for average annual value, somewhere between $45 million and $50 million, stretched out over eight years.

  • An agent — not his own — guessed a 10-year, $430 million contract, which would top the $40 million average annual value that Aaron Judge recently attained and also surpass Mike Trout‘s record-setting guarantee of $426.5 million.

  • A rival executive, noting the inordinate number of long-term deals handed out this offseason, took it even further, speculating a 12-year, $480 million mega-contract.

And yet some believe those estimations might fall short, suggesting that if Ohtani continues on his current path and puts together another historic season as both a pitcher and a hitter, an unprecedented, recently unimaginable round number might not just be attainable but perhaps even likely.

North American professional athletes have yet to reach $500 million; the closest, perhaps, is Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who signed a 10-year, $450 million extension in 2020, though that deal guarantees only about $141 million. But there is a growing belief that Ohtani might actually get there, and that everything seems to be lining up in order to make that happen.

Below we explored three key reasons for that belief, based on conversations with executives and agents throughout the industry over the past several months.

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Orioles, veteran RHP Morton agree to 1-year deal

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Orioles, veteran RHP Morton agree to 1-year deal

After losing ace Corbin Burnes via free agency, the Baltimore Orioles bolstered their rotation on Friday, agreeing to a one-year contract with veteran right-hander Charlie Morton.

A 17-year veteran and two-time All-Star, Morton posted an 8-10 record with a 4.19 ERA, 167 strikeouts and 65 walks in 30 starts for the Atlanta Braves in 2024.

Morton, 41, has proved to be durable even in the late stages of his career, as he’s one of only four pitchers with at least 30 starts in each full season since 2018.

A third-round pick by Atlanta in the 2002 draft, Morton has pitched for the Braves (2008, 2021-23) along with the Pittsburgh Pirates (2009-15), Philadelphia Phillies (2016), Houston Astros (2017-18) and Tampa Bay Rays (2019-20).

He is 138-123 in 383 games (382 starts) with a 4.01 ERA, 2,047 strikeouts and 787 walks.

In 2019 with the Rays, Morton finished 16-6 with a 3.05 ERA in 33 starts, placing third in American League Cy Young Award voting and making the All-Star team for the second consecutive season.

Baltimore catcher Rene Pinto was designated for assignment to open a spot for Morton on the 40-man roster.

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Sources: Dodgers, Hyeseong Kim agree to deal

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Sources: Dodgers, Hyeseong Kim agree to deal

The Los Angeles Dodgers are in agreement with Korean infielder Hyeseong Kim on a three-year, $12.5 million contract, sources confirmed to ESPN on Friday.

Kim, 25, was posted by the Kiwoom Heroes on Dec. 5, marking Friday as a deadline to sign with a major league team. He’s known an an elite defender at multiple positions as he played second base, shortstop, third base and in the outfield for the Heroes over his eight-year run with the team.

His current fit with the Dodgers could be as a super utility player, depending on what other moves the team makes this winter. Kim is a career .304 hitter with 37 home runs and 211 stolen bases in 953 games while playing in the KBO. His speed alone can affect games, especially with the newer MLB rules that put an emphasis on base stealing.

The deal includes team options for 2028 and 2029, while the Dodgers also have to pay a $2.5 million release fee to Kiwoom. Per rules, the release fee is 20% of the total package.

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Hernandez returning to Dodgers on 3-year deal

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Hernandez returning to Dodgers on 3-year deal

LOS ANGELES — Teoscar Hernández will be in right field for the Los Angeles Dodgers next season when the World Series champions try to defend their title.

The outfielder was at Dodger Stadium on Friday after agreeing to rejoin the team on a $66 million, three-year contract.

“I had my mind clear that I wanted to come back and I was going to do anything in my power to make it work and be back with the Dodgers,” Hernández said.

He played last season on a $23.5 million, one-year deal and proved his value by becoming an All-Star and winning the Home Run Derby along with a third career Silver Slugger, which earned him a $1 million bonus. He capped it all by helping the Dodgers beat the New York Yankees in the World Series.

Hernández said he had offers from other teams that would have gotten him an additional $5 million to $6 million.

“For me, money wasn’t an issue,” he said.

Hernández’s deal comes with a $23 million signing bonus. The Dodgers hold a club option of $15 million for 2028 with a $6.5 million buyout. The contract also features $23.5 million in deferred money.

He called the Dodgers “different” than other teams.

“They give me the confidence. I didn’t get that really in other places,” Hernández said. “They trust me in everything that I can give them. That was one of the biggest things for me, that pushed me to do the best job that I can do in a Dodgers uniform.”

Manager Dave Roberts welcomed the return of Hernández.

“It’s not just about getting the most talented players. You’ve got to be good on the field and you’ve got to play the game a certain way,” he said. “What that does is it makes people around you better, it holds teammates accountable. For us, Teo checked every single box.”

Hernández hit a career-high 33 home runs and drove in 99 runs last season. The 32-year-old hit .272 in 154 games.

“He always put the team first and you could see that there was a real love of the game that he brought to the field each and every day,” general manager Brandon Gomes said. “I do think because of the way he plays with such passion and joy, when those big moments came up, it was something that he really cherished and was able to put the team first and slow the heartbeat down and do whatever was needed in that situation.”

Hernández will be in right field with Mookie Betts moving back to shortstop. Newcomer Michael Conforto will be in left.

Hernández was embraced by Dodgers fans and their support didn’t go unnoticed.

“I appreciate since the first day that I got here Dodgers fans were cheering for me,” he said. “They were giving me the support that I need to have the season that I have last year. When you have that support as a player, you have to give 110 percent every day.”

Information from The Associated Press and Field Level Media was used in this report.

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