Major League Baseball’s new rules didn’t impact scoring significantly in spring training, and oddsmakers began the season without adjusting their numbers on runs scored, while taking a wait-and-see approach to the pitch clock and elimination of the infield shift.
MLB games have averaged 9.1 runs scored over the past five seasons. Last year’s 8.57 runs per game was the lowest since 2015. Spring training games, with the new rules implemented, averaged 10.1 runs, down slightly from last year.
Pitchers have 15 seconds to throw a pitch with the bases empty and 20 seconds with a runner on base. Hitters must be in the batter’s box with eight seconds on the pitch clock. Hitters are allowed one timeout per at-bat to reset the pitch clock. Pitchers are restricted to stepping off the rubber only twice per plate appearance, including for pickoff attempts. The rule resets if a runner advances during the same plate appearance. And larger bases are being used to increase the success rate on steals.
“We don’t really see a direct correlation from the pitch clock to more scoring,” said Randy Blum, who oversees baseball odds for the SuperBook in Las Vegas. “We were not planning on adjusting our totals off that.”
Halvor England, BetMGM’s lead baseball trader, expects the elimination of the traditional shift to increase scoring marginally, but also believes pitchers will have more control over the hitter during an at-bat because of the pitch clock.
“I think it’s going to be a little more offsetting than people realize, almost a wash,” Halvor said. “I don’t anticipate there to be less scoring overall, but on a game-to-game basis, it’s going to be very marginal.”
The bigger bases being used this season, however, are a difference-maker in bookmakers’ and bettors’ eyes. Steals were up notably in success rate and volume — nearly double from last spring training — this year. Bettors expect the trend to continue.
The SuperBook offered a season-long prop on the over/under on most stolen bases by an individual player. Blum said the book opened the total at 50.5, a number that reflected about four to five more stolen bases than if the rule had not been in place. Still, sharp bettors took the over, causing the SuperBook to move the number to 52.5.
“That’s one thing [larger bases] that we did adjust our numbers on based on the rule changes, and it seems to be something that the bettors are taking note of also,” Blum said. “That was not necessarily a prop that in the past would get a lot of attention either way.”
Joe Fortuna, a veteran professional bettor and baseball fan, said he did edge his numbers up on runs scored because of the rule changes and was looking to bet overs early in the season for multiple reasons, including potential pitchers’ fatigue while working with the pitch clock.
“These guys, in April, might be a little bit out of shape, so I don’t know if running 100 mph pitches up there every 15 seconds will make them tire out faster,” Fortuna said. “The different rules all seemed to lean toward hitting to us.”
Fortuna also examined which hitters faced the most infield shifts last season and pointed out left-handed batters like San Diego’s Juan Soto, Texas’ Corey Seager and Kansas City’s Vinnie Pasquantino as ones who could benefit from its elimination.
“The shift is huge to me,” Fortuna said. “We actually bet on Pasquantino to win MVP today at 250-1. He batted .295 last year and faced 93.8% three-man shifts. That was the highest.”
For now, only one day into the season, bettors and bookmakers will be watching closely to see if there are any trends related to the new rule changes, but early on, it’ll be a guessing game.
“There will be some advantage for bettors if they can figure it all out quicker than the market,” Halvor said.
DENVER — With a five-goal third-period barrage that saw a different player score each goal Friday night, the Colorado Avalanche showed the version of the team they believe can make up for last year’s first-round exit a year after winning the Stanley Cup.
The Avs cruised to a 6-2 win against the Winnipeg Jets to take a 2-1 series lead in the Western Conference quarterfinals.
“Last year, we had no goals outside of our top three forwards and defensemen,” Avalanche coach Jared Bednar said. “This year, I don’t know, you’d have to total it up, but it’s huge contributions. We’re a deeper team. There’s no question about it.”
A lack of secondary and tertiary scoring last season contributed to the Avs scoring 19 goals in the first round before they were eliminated in seven games by the Seattle Kraken.
They already have 17 goals through three first-round games this year, with 10 of them coming from beyond their first line and their top defensive pairing.
Veteran winger Zach Parise, who signed with the Avs in February to win his first Stanley Cup, staked the team to a 1-0 lead before the Jets used the second period to take a 2-1 lead through Tyler Toffoli and Josh Morrissey.
Penalties, however, played a role in grounding the Jets in the third period.
“Since I’ve been here, I thought the third was the best period we’ve played,” said Avalanche center Casey Mittelstadt, the team’s trade deadline acquisition who finished with three assists.
A power-play goal from Nathan MacKinnon tied the score a little more than two minutes into the third. The Avs took the lead through another power-play goal from Valeri Nichushkin almost two minutes later.
Goals from Artturi Lehkonen and Ross Colton extended the lead to 5-2 before Devon Toews’ empty-net goal made it 6-2 with 3:35 remaining in the game.
“I think for us, being down one in the third there, we didn’t sit back on our heels,” Colton said. “I think we just kind of took it to them. When we play with that speed and that energy, we’re a good team. Obviously, we had some power plays, but we drew them with hard work and getting in on the forecheck and putting them under pressure. It all starts with that.”
At the end of the game, there was an on-ice scrum between the Avs and Jets that saw Jets defenseman Brenden Dillon emerge with a bloodied, lacerated left hand. Dillon immediately left the ice and entered the Jets’ dressing room.
Jets coach Rick Bowness said there was no immediate update available on Dillon’s condition.
“Obviously, a scary situation there,” Morrissey said. “I don’t really have anything to say, but we’re all really concerned for him and just hoping everything is OK.”
Brad Marchand immediately reclaims the lead for Boston
Brad Marchand gives the Bruins a 3-2 lead late in the third period after the Maple Leafs tied it up.
Game 1: BOS 5, TOR 1 | Recap Game 2: TOR 3, BOS 2 | Recap | Replay Game 3: BOS 4, TOR 2 | Recap | Replay Game 4: BOS @ TOR | April 27, 8 p.m. (TBS) | Preview Game 5: TOR @ BOS | April 30, 7 p.m. (ESPN) | Preview Game 6: BOS @ TOR | May 2* | Preview Game 7: TOR @ BOS | May 4* | Preview
Sebastian Aho scores to restore the Hurricanes’ two-goal lead vs. the Islanders.
Game 1: CAR 3, NYI 1 | Recap Game 2: CAR 5, NYI 3 | Recap | Replay Game 3: CAR 3, NYI 2 | Recap | Replay Game 4: CAR @ NYI | April 27, 2 p.m. (TBS) | Preview Game 5: NYI @ CAR | April 30, 7:30 p.m. (TBS)* | Preview Game 6: CAR @ NYI | May 2* | Preview Game 7: NYI @ CAR | May 4* | Preview
Central Division
Regular-season records:
Stars: 52-21-9, 113 points Golden Knights: 45-29-8, 98 points
Noah Hanifin puts Knights on top before third period
Noah Hanifin scoops the puck and makes a nice shot to give the Knights a 2-1 lead heading into the third period versus the Stars.
Game 1: VGK 4, DAL 3 | Recap | Replay Game 2: VGK 3, DAL 1 | Recap | Replay Game 3: DAL @ VGK | April 27, 10:30 p.m. (TBS) | Preview Game 4: DAL @ VGK | April 29 (ESPN) | Preview Game 5: VGK @ DAL | May 1* | Preview Game 6: DAL @ VGK | May 3* | Preview Game 7: VGK @ DAL | May 5* | Preview
Game 1: WPG 7, COL 6 | Recap | Replay Game 2: COL 5, WPG 2 | Recap | Replay Game 3: WPG @ COL | April 26, 10 p.m. (TNT) | Preview Game 4: WPG @ COL | April 28, 2:30 p.m. (TNT) | Preview Game 5: COL @ WPG | April 30 | Preview Game 6: WPG @ COL | May 2* | Preview Game 7: COL @ WPG | May 4* | Preview
Colton Sissons finishes the rebound for Predators’ 3rd goal
Nashville extends their lead to 3-0 over the Canucks thanks to this Colton Sissons goal.
Game 1: VAN 4, NSH 2 | Recap | Replay Game 2: NSH 4, VAN 1 | Recap | Replay Game 3: VAN @ NSH | April 26, 7:30 p.m. (TBS) | Preview Game 4: VAN @ NSH | April 28, 5 p.m. (TBS) | Preview Game 5: NSH @ VAN | April 30, 10 p.m. | Preview Game 6: VAN @ NSH | May 3* | Preview Game 7: NSH @ VAN | May 5* | Preview
Anze Kopitar finds the back of the net early in overtime to lift the Kings to a Game 2 win over the Oilers.
Game 1: EDM 7, LA 4 | Recap | Replay Game 2: LA 5, EDM 4 (OT) | Recap Game 3: EDM @ LA | April 26, 10:30 p.m. (TBS) | Preview Game 4: EDM @ LA | April 28, 10:30 p.m. (TBS) | Preview Game 5: LA @ EDM | May 1 | Preview Game 6: EDM @ LA | May 3* | Preview Game 7: LA @ EDM | May 5* | Preview