Oddsmakers, bettors trying to gauge impact of new MLB rules
Major League Baseball’s new rules didn’t impact scoring significantly in spring training, and oddsmakers began the season without adjusting their numbers on runs scored, while taking a wait-and-see approach to the pitch clock and elimination of the infield shift.
MLB games have averaged 9.1 runs scored over the past five seasons. Last year’s 8.57 runs per game was the lowest since 2015. Spring training games, with the new rules implemented, averaged 10.1 runs, down slightly from last year.
Pitchers have 15 seconds to throw a pitch with the bases empty and 20 seconds with a runner on base. Hitters must be in the batter’s box with eight seconds on the pitch clock. Hitters are allowed one timeout per at-bat to reset the pitch clock. Pitchers are restricted to stepping off the rubber only twice per plate appearance, including for pickoff attempts. The rule resets if a runner advances during the same plate appearance. And larger bases are being used to increase the success rate on steals.
“We don’t really see a direct correlation from the pitch clock to more scoring,” said Randy Blum, who oversees baseball odds for the SuperBook in Las Vegas. “We were not planning on adjusting our totals off that.”
Halvor England, BetMGM’s lead baseball trader, expects the elimination of the traditional shift to increase scoring marginally, but also believes pitchers will have more control over the hitter during an at-bat because of the pitch clock.
“I think it’s going to be a little more offsetting than people realize, almost a wash,” Halvor said. “I don’t anticipate there to be less scoring overall, but on a game-to-game basis, it’s going to be very marginal.”
The bigger bases being used this season, however, are a difference-maker in bookmakers’ and bettors’ eyes. Steals were up notably in success rate and volume — nearly double from last spring training — this year. Bettors expect the trend to continue.
The SuperBook offered a season-long prop on the over/under on most stolen bases by an individual player. Blum said the book opened the total at 50.5, a number that reflected about four to five more stolen bases than if the rule had not been in place. Still, sharp bettors took the over, causing the SuperBook to move the number to 52.5.
“That’s one thing [larger bases] that we did adjust our numbers on based on the rule changes, and it seems to be something that the bettors are taking note of also,” Blum said. “That was not necessarily a prop that in the past would get a lot of attention either way.”
Joe Fortuna, a veteran professional bettor and baseball fan, said he did edge his numbers up on runs scored because of the rule changes and was looking to bet overs early in the season for multiple reasons, including potential pitchers’ fatigue while working with the pitch clock.
“These guys, in April, might be a little bit out of shape, so I don’t know if running 100 mph pitches up there every 15 seconds will make them tire out faster,” Fortuna said. “The different rules all seemed to lean toward hitting to us.”
Fortuna also examined which hitters faced the most infield shifts last season and pointed out left-handed batters like San Diego’s Juan Soto, Texas’ Corey Seager and Kansas City’s Vinnie Pasquantino as ones who could benefit from its elimination.
“The shift is huge to me,” Fortuna said. “We actually bet on Pasquantino to win MVP today at 250-1. He batted .295 last year and faced 93.8% three-man shifts. That was the highest.”
For now, only one day into the season, bettors and bookmakers will be watching closely to see if there are any trends related to the new rule changes, but early on, it’ll be a guessing game.
“There will be some advantage for bettors if they can figure it all out quicker than the market,” Halvor said.
NEW YORK — Right-hander reliever Adam Ottavino is returning to the New York Yankees, agreeing Tuesday to a one-year contract.
A 39-year-old sidearmer, Ottavino agreed to a minor league contract with Boston on Feb. 18 and exercised his right to be released on March 23 after compiling a 10.80 ERA in five spring training appearances.
He was 2-2 with one save and a 4.34 ERA in 60 relief appearances for the New York Mets last year, stranding 15 of 20 inherited runners.
Ottavino pitched for the Yankees in 2019 and ’20, going 8-8 with a 2.76 ERA in 97 relief appearances. He is 41-43 with 46 saves and a 3.49 ERA in 14 big league seasons with St. Louis, Colorado (2012-18), the Yankees (2019-20), Boston (2021) and the Mets (2022-24).
The Yankees transferred right-hander JT Brubaker to the 60-day injured list and placed closer Devin Williams on the paternity list.
The NHL began handing out the Presidents’ Trophy to the team with the best regular-season record beginning in the 1985-86 campaign. In its history, it has been awarded 37 times to 18 clubs.
Those teams have been anything but a shoo-in to win the Stanley Cup, however. Just two clubs in the salary cap era (since 2005-06) have won the Presidents’ Trophy and hoisted the Stanley Cup: the 2007-08 Detroit Red Wings and the 2012-13 Chicago Blackhawks. Two of the past six Presidents’ Trophy winners have lost in the first round.
So, that’s the challenge ahead for whomever claims the trophy this season. At this juncture, it appears to have been whittled down to one of two teams: the Winnipeg Jets (with 106 points through 74 games) or the Washington Capitals (103 through 73).
The Capitals will face off against the Boston Bruins on Tuesday (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+), while the Jets will take on the Los Angeles Kings (10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+).
From an overall strength of schedule standpoint, the Jets have a more difficult route. According to Stathletes, the win percentage of their remaining opponents is 51.3%, which is 12th toughest. Compare that to 47.3% — the 28th toughest — for the Capitals.
Despite that, Stathletes gives Winnipeg the edge, projecting the Jets for 115.9 points and the Caps for 114.7. It appears this race will come down to the very end!
There are less than three weeks left until season’s end on April 17, and we’ll help you track it all with the NHL playoff watch. As we traverse the final stretch, we’ll provide details on all the playoff races, along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2025 NHL draft lottery.
Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.
Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Yesterday’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick
Current playoff matchups
Eastern Conference
A1 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. WC1 Ottawa Senators
A2 Tampa Bay Lightning vs. A3 Florida Panthers
M1 Washington Capitals vs. WC2 Montreal Canadiens
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 New Jersey Devils
Western Conference
C1 Winnipeg Jets vs. WC2 St. Louis Blues
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC1 Minnesota Wild
P2 Los Angeles Kings vs. P3 Edmonton Oilers
Tuesday’s games
Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available to stream on ESPN+ (local blackout restrictions apply).
Washington Capitals at Boston Bruins, 7 p.m.
Florida Panthers at Montreal Canadiens, 7 p.m.
Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators, 7 p.m.
Nashville Predators at Columbus Blue Jackets, 7 p.m.
Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN+/Hulu/Disney+)
Detroit Red Wings at St. Louis Blues, 8 p.m.
Calgary Flames at Utah Hockey Club, 9 p.m.
Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights, 10 p.m.
San Jose Sharks at Anaheim Ducks, 10 p.m.
Winnipeg Jets at Los Angeles Kings, 10:30 p.m.
Monday’s scoreboard
New Jersey Devils 3, Minnesota Wild 2 (SO)
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Nashville Predators 1
Calgary Flames 3, Colorado Avalanche 2 (SO)
Dallas Stars 3, Seattle Kraken 1
Expanded standings
Atlantic Division
Points: 94
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 8
Points pace: 104.2
Next game: vs. FLA (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 91
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 9
Points pace: 102.2
Next game: @ NYI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 91
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 9
Points pace: 102.2
Next game: @ MTL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 84
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 9
Points pace: 94.4
Next game: vs. BUF (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.8%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 77
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 9
Points pace: 86.5
Next game: vs. FLA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 44%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 74
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 83.1
Next game: @ STL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 2.9%
Tragic number: 16
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 76.5
Next game: vs. WSH (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 9
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 76.4
Next game: @ OTT (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 10
Metro Division
Points: 103
Regulation wins: 40
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 9
Points pace: 115.7
Next game: @ BOS (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 94
Regulation wins: 40
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 9
Points pace: 105.6
Next game: vs. WSH (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 87
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 6
Points pace: 93.9
Next game: vs. NYR (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.6%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 77
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 85.3
Next game: vs. MIN (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 27.8%
Tragic number: 17
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 85.4
Next game: vs. NSH (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 17.1%
Tragic number: 19
Points: 74
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 83.1
Next game: vs. TB (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 8.7%
Tragic number: 16
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 7
Points pace: 77.6
Next game: @ STL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 9
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 6
Points pace: 76.6
Next game: @ MTL (Saturday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 7
Central Division
Points: 106
Regulation wins: 40
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 8
Points pace: 117.5
Next game: @ LA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 102
Regulation wins: 40
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 8
Points pace: 113.0
Next game: vs. NSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 94
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 7
Points pace: 102.8
Next game: @ CHI (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 88
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 7
Points pace: 96.2
Next game: @ NYR (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 93.4%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 87
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 7
Points pace: 95.1
Next game: vs. DET (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 95.5%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 78
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 86.4
Next game: vs. CGY (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0.5%
Tragic number: 8
Points: 62
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 68.7
Next game: @ CBJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Points: 51
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 56.5
Next game: vs. COL (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Pacific Division
Points: 98
Regulation wins: 42
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 9
Points pace: 110.1
Next game: vs. EDM (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 91
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 9
Points pace: 102.2
Next game: vs. WPG (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 89
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 9
Points pace: 100.0
Next game: @ VGK (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.5%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 82
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 92.1
Next game: @ UTA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 7.9%
Tragic number: 14
Points: 81
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 89.8
Next game: vs. SEA (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 3.3%
Tragic number: 11
Points: 72
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 80.9
Next game: vs. SJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: 4
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 7
Points pace: 74.4
Next game: @ VAN (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 55.0
Next game: @ ANA (Tuesday
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Note: An “x” means that the team has clinched a playoff berth. An “e” means that the team has been eliminated from playoff contention.
Race for the No. 1 pick
The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process are here. Matthew Schaefer, a defenseman for the OHL’s Erie Otters, is No. 1 on the draft board.
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 14
Points: 51
Regulation wins: 18
Points: 62
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 20
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 20
Points: 72
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 74
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 74
Regulation wins: 26
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 77
Regulation wins: 32
Points: 78
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 81
Regulation wins: 26
Points: 82
Regulation wins: 26
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