A Google search for “Houston Astros” and “evil empire” generates more than 1 million results, with headlines such as: “Are the Houston Astros the new evil empire of baseball?” and “Jose Abreu signing helps Astros approach evil empire status” and “The new evil empire: Houston Astros look to erase stain of cheating scandal.”
Back in December 2002, then-Boston Red Sox president Larry Lucchino tagged the New York Yankees with that moniker because of their run of championships in the late 1990s and early 2000s. New York embraced the idea, playing “Star Wars” music at Yankee Stadium and even staging a legal battle to protect use of the “evil empire” term when used in a baseball context.
Like those Yankees, the description is applied to the Astros for more than just their success on the field — and there has been plenty of that, with a record six consecutive ALCS appearances since 2017, plus four World Series trips and two titles. The one thing these Astros haven’t accomplished, however, is back-to-back World Series titles. Indeed, no team has done it since the Yankees won three in a row from 1998 to 2000.
The oddsmakers in Las Vegas made the Astros the preseason World Series favorite. While they lost Justin Verlander in free agency, they brought back all the other key players and added Abreu. Can they end the back-to-back World Series drought?
ESPN MLB expert Dave Schoenfield considers what worked for the Yankees and gives five reasons why the Astros will repeat, followed by Jeff Passan, Brad Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Joon Lee and Jesse Rogers naming five other teams that can knock off the reigning champs.
Why Houston can repeat
1. Star power in the lineup
The Yankees had Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams, Paul O’Neill, Tino Martinez, Jorge Posada and Chuck Knoblauch anchoring the offense. The Astros counter with Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Jeremy Pena and now Abreu. Which group would you take?
Over their three championship seasons, the Yankees averaged 22.6 bWAR, peaking at 27.5 in 1998 and falling to 17.2 in 2000. The Astros’ top five had 26.6 WAR in 2022, nearly matching what the Yankees did in 1998. Even with Altuve missing the first couple of months in 2023 with a thumb injury, FanGraphs projects these six at 24.9 WAR.
Indeed, if there’s one difference between the Yankees and Astros, it’s that the Yankees didn’t have a hitter of Alvarez’s level. In those three aforementioned seasons, their highest single-season OPS+ was Williams’ 160 in 1998. Alvarez hit .306/.406/.613 last season, good for a 187 OPS+. He followed with 14 RBIs in 13 postseason games, including three clutch home runs. He can carry an offense in October.
2. A dominant bullpen
No, Ryan Pressly won’t be confused for Mariano Rivera, but he has been one of the best closers in the game. Consider that from 1998 to 2000, Rivera converted 89% of his save opportunities in the regular season. Pressly has converted 91% of his chances the past two seasons. The Yankees had more than Rivera, however, with Jeff Nelson, Mike Stanton and Ramiro Mendoza pitching key innings in the postseason. From ’98 to 2000, that trio went 5-1 with a 3.21 ERA in the playoffs.
The Astros’ bullpen goes even deeper — as modern bullpens must do. With Rafael Montero, Hector Neris, Bryan Abreu and Ryne Stanek leading the way in front of Pressly, the Astros led the majors last season with a 2.80 bullpen ERA and 28.3% strikeout rate. All those guys are back, and there’s also depth in Phil Maton and Seth Martinez. The Astros’ starters led the majors in innings last season, but without Verlander and perhaps with the intent of conserving innings early in the season, manager Dusty Baker has the depth to rely on the pen — and then turn it loose in October. In case you forgot: Houston’s pen had a 0.83 ERA last postseason, allowing just six runs in 54⅓ innings.
3. One big addition
After winning it all in 1998, the Yankees added Roger Clemens in 1999 (trading away David Wells). In 2000, they added David Justice in late June and he was a monster, hitting .305/.391/.585 with 20 home runs and 60 RBIs in 78 games. He then dominated Seattle in the American League Championship Series. Abreu replaces Yuli Gurriel at first base for the Astros — and that projects as a big improvement given Gurriel’s struggles last season.
The Abreu addition does more than add an RBI machine in the middle of the order, making it more difficult to pitch around Alvarez. Once Altuve returns, the top five should go: Altuve, Bregman, Alvarez, Abreu, Tucker. They hope to get Michael Brantley back at the end of April. If he’s healthy, the lineup looks deeper than last year’s. Plus, Abreu was known as a good clubhouse leader with the Chicago White Sox, and he’s the perfect guy to make sure the Astros don’t suffer any World Series hangover. He wants a ring, too, after all.
4. They still have an ace — or two
That was what made the Yankees so tough: It didn’t matter where the rotation fell and who started the first game of a series — whether it be Clemens or David Cone or Andy Pettitte or the underrated Orlando Hernandez (who went 8-1 with a 2.20 ERA in the postseason from 1998 to 2000, making him the true ace of that run).
Verlander is gone, but the Astros still have Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier as a lethal 1-2 punch. Javier had a breakout season of sorts in 2022, going 11-9 with a 2.54 ERA and holding batters to a .170 batting average. Batters struggle to make contact with that four-seamer he throws up in the zone. Then we saw what he did in the postseason: 5⅓ scoreless innings against the Yankees and six hitless innings against the Philadelphia Phillies. With more innings added to his workload, Javier should be a Cy Young contender in 2023.
Then add in Lance McCullers Jr., no stranger to big games in the postseason. He’s out now with an elbow strain but is expected back at some point. In October, Baker will feel comfortable lining up any of Valdez, Javier or McCullers to start the first game of a series and that’s something few teams can match.
5. Just get in
The Astros won 100-plus games in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2022 — including 106 wins last season. They will be hard-pressed to match that mark again and maybe don’t even reach 100 with a tougher AL West. But they don’t have to. All they have to do is get into the postseason and anything can happen, especially with their bullpen. Just look at the 2000 Yankees. After the Yankees won 114 games in 1998 and 98 in 1999, they stumbled to an 87-74 record in 2000, including losing 15 of their final 18 games. Luckily for them, the AL East was bad that year and they won the division, while 90-win Cleveland missed the playoffs. They turned it on in the playoffs — and caught a lucky break when Seattle’s Jamie Moyer fractured a kneecap in a simulated game and missed the ALCS.
Like then-Yankees manager Joe Torre, Baker isn’t going to panic if the Astros get off to a slow start or if the Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers or Los Angeles Angels push them for a division title. In fact, now that Baker finally has his ring, the Astros should be more relaxed and confident than ever in October. If they can just get there, they’ll be tough to beat. — Schoenfield
Perhaps it’s a cop-out to go with the last non-Astros team to win a championship, but give me the Braves. Compared to their 2021 championship team, this year’s incarnation boasts far more talent. The additions: Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, Sean Murphy and Spencer Strider, plus Kyle Wright in a prominent role and Ronald Acuña Jr. healthy. Gone are Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson — no doubt two vital players, but, sized up against the half-dozen who weren’t there, not even close in terms of impact.
Losing Max Fried for an unknown period because of an Opening Day hamstring tweak doesn’t help matters, but it’s not thought to be serious. A playoff rotation of Fried, Strider, Wright and Charlie Morton, backed by a deep bullpen and manager Brian Snitker’s canny use of it, will give Atlanta the pitching advantage in most series. And that’s to say nothing of a lineup with Olson, Harris, Murphy, Acuña, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Travis d’Arnaud and more. Talent is great. Talent with experience is dangerous. — Passan
We came within a whisker of an Astros-Padres World Series last year. I’m not sure San Diego was as ready for that matchup as it would figure to be if the teams face off this October, though of course anything could have happened in the seven-game series. The teams look even across the board in 2023, and if they do both survive what will be challenging league playoff brackets and clash in the Fall Classic, there are dozens of small things that could be a tipping point for one team or the other.
If the Padres make it that far, you have to assume their biggest stars will be on point. Not even the Astros can match the lineup foursome of Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. The rotation battle probably favors the Astros, but it’s a slight edge at best. As for the bullpen, the Padres will have to solidify it over the course of the season to reach the World Series, but once there, they would have Josh Hader to lock down late leads.
San Diego has spent big to reach its current status as a leading contender, and when you build a roster like this, each current season is going to be the best chance you have to win for the foreseeable future. The Padres have been building for this season for, well, over five decades. If their star power is rolling in October and gets them to the World Series, no one will be able to stop them once they get there. — Doolittle
The Blue Jays’ lineup is one of very few that can rival that of the Astros. Combine that with a starting rotation that might have a higher ceiling, a defense that significantly improved over the offseason, a bullpen that looks better — and can definitely be bolstered further in the summer months — and what do you get? A title contender.
Don’t believe it? Let’s go step by step. The Blue Jays boasted the highest adjusted OPS in the majors last season, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (24 years old) and Bo Bichette (25) will probably keep getting better. The rotation saw Alek Manoah emerge as an ace, but Kevin Gausman was a stellar No. 2 who pitched even better than his 3.35 ERA would indicate — and now they’ve added Chris Bassitt to form a formidable trio.
The bullpen is a concern, but Jordan Romano is one of the game’s best closers and newcomer Erik Swanson stands as a respectable back-end complement. And an outfield defense that was subpar last season, with minus-three outs above average, has received a major boost from the additions of Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho, two players who should help a fly ball-heavy starting pitcher like Jose Berrios bounce back from a rough 2022. If he does, the Blue Jays might become the best team in the world. — Gonzalez
New York Yankees
The Yankees might not be the trendy, young Jays oozing with potential or the analytically savvy Tampa Bay Rays that seem to pull stars out of thin air year after year, but they still have one of the most talented rosters in the entire sport. Aaron Judge continues to anchor this lineup and the hope is that top prospect Anthony Volpe cements his place as a long-term shortstop for years to come.
While New York still has issues with pitching depth, it signed Carlos Rodon to a massive contract during the offseason to take some weight off of Gerrit Cole’s shoulders. Rodon starts the season on the injured list, highlighting the Yankees’ biggest concern this season: health. If their core contributors manage to stay on the field, this team will be a threat to make a deep run into the postseason and topple the Astros. Much of that weight will lie on the shoulders of Rodon and Volpe, the roster’s two most noteworthy additions this season. If Volpe can meet expectations and provide more offensive production at shortstop, and if Rodon can stay healthy, the Yankees will be tough to beat in October. — Lee
Seattle Mariners
Maybe this is the Mariners’ year, or maybe it’s next year, but at some point, they will overtake Houston as the best team in the AL West — or, at the very least, upset the Astros to advance in the playoffs. First off, no team has repeated since the Yankees won three consecutive years from 1998 to 2000, so picking against the Astros is already a good idea.
Secondly, why not go with the team that knows them best? People may have forgotten about the Mariners’ offseason, but they added All-Star Teoscar Hernandez, defensive master Kolten Wong and veteran hitters AJ Pollock and Tommy La Stella. While those additions may not have been the biggest headline-worthy moves, Seattle doesn’t need to be splashy — it just needs to take another step with what it has. Julio Rodriguez is a true star and the Mariners have a solid starting staff — including a full season of Luis Castillo. They can do this. — Rogers
Jesse joined ESPN Chicago in September 2009 and covers MLB for ESPN.com.
The MLB playoffs are just around the corner and shaping up to be a wide-open affair. For the second consecutive season, there is not a single team on pace to win 100 or more games. That means there is plenty of parity across the majors, which is bound to carry over to October.
With that in mind, we asked 19 baseball players, executives and scouts: Who is the team to beat in the National League? And who is the team to beat in the American League?
There was little uniformity to their answers, though most agreed on one thing: a sleeper team that people in both leagues agreed could make a run in October. Here’s how those in the game view the upcoming postseason.
The NL’s team to beat is …
(Phillies, 5; Dodgers, 4; Padres, 2; Mets, 1)
Voting was as tight as you might imagine, considering the Brewers are mixed in with the defending champion Dodgers and high-priced Phillies. Those teams dominated our poll, leaving few votes for anyone else.
All three teams can slug their way to the World Series, but the Dodgers have a distinct advantage in the power game, outhomering both Philadelphia and Milwaukee by a wide margin this regular season. However, Philly employs easily the best closer of the three — a crucial element that could help finish off those tight October games.
Still, it was the Brewers who won our poll because they’ve played at such a high level in all areas while also possessing a deep and healthy starting staff.
Why the Brewers
NL player: “They seem like a team that has a really solid plan and cohesive approach. And they seem like they’re on the same page. I just like how they play. And they’ve done it all year; why can’t they keep it going?”
NL scout: “They still have to figure out the back end of their pen, but in a short series, they have the luxury of sending one of their good starters to the bullpen. And they might just run into enough home runs to keep pace in October.”
NL exec: “Getting the bye will be huge for them. They’ve been knocked out in those short series several times; this will let them breathe a bit. Plus, their starting staff is so good. If I’m Milwaukee, I want the longer series.”
NL player: “It’s simple for me. They still have good pitching, and they’ve been there before. Playoffs are about home runs, and they can hit them.”
NL player: “Their lineup is a little top-heavy, but they have enough at the bottom that can do the job. If those guys show up, then that lineup is really good. Their pen is incredible with [Jhoan] Duran.”
NL exec: “It’s their last hurrah, right? They have older players, some of whom will be free agents at the end of the season. I just can’t see [Bryce] Harper going his career without a ring, and this is their best chance, even without [Zack] Wheeler.”
NL player: “When we played them, they didn’t have a good series, but they seem to turn it on when they need to. That’s the sign of a champion. I think their offense will have a big October and lead them like it did last year.”
NL exec: “Talent will win out, and they have the potential for healthiest pitching staff all year in October.”
If not Milwaukee, Philadelphia or Los Angeles, then who?
Truth be told, these insiders responded before the latest Mets free fall became so dramatic — New York was on an eight-game losing streak that ended with an extra-innings win over Texas on Sunday. But, hey, anyone can get hot at the right time, right? The Mets proved that last year. But they have to prove they can even get into the October party before they can think about making a deep run.
The Padres are hard to figure out, but that doesn’t make them less dangerous than any other contender. Some days, their offense goes into hibernation, but they can shut anyone down in the late innings. Their bullpen is that good and could take them far despite the loss of Jason Adam.
NL player: “I like San Diego. They’re hungry. They made all the right deadline moves. And they have the experience of getting close but not going all the way.”
NL exec: “There’s a lot to like about San Diego, but they can still be pitched to even with their deadline additions. It’s like they disappear sometimes. If they survive a wild-card round and get some home games, Petco [Park]’s energy could wake them up. Still a great bullpen.”
NL player: “The Mets are really good. I know they’ve struggled, but I’m banking on them getting hot like they did last postseason. Sometimes you get your worst baseball behind you, then find your groove. I like the Mets to do that.”
NL scout: “Their lineup 1-9 has to carry them. I’m not sure how they’ll piece it together on the mound, but sometimes you find rookie magic in an arm or two. If two of [Nolan] McLean, [Jonah] Tong and [Brandon] Sproat can come through, why not the Mets?
The AL’s team to beat is …
(Tigers, 5; Yankees, 3; Red Sox, 3; Astros, 2)
The voting was even tighter in the AL than in the NL — four teams received three or more votes — but it was the Blue Jays who edged out the competition with just one more vote than Detroit.
Home-field advantage could make the difference for the AL’s top two teams, both of whom dominate at home but hover around .500 on the road. The Tigers play so well at Comerica Park, where they are able to run rampant on the bases and go first to third on teams. And, of course, they feature Tarik Skubal at the top of their rotation. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays can get the newly renovated Rogers Centre rocking as hard as any stadium in the majors. That top seed in the AL is up for grabs down the stretch — and one of these two teams is highly likely to get it.
Why the Blue Jays
AL player: “They’re one of the most rounded teams in the AL. They have some experience, especially in the rotation, and have a little bit of everything in the lineup. That’s tough to contend with in a series. I just think they have the most complete team.”
AL player: “Detroit is high up on that list [of teams to beat]. They know how to win. That’s the biggest thing. They proved that last offseason. And they’ve turned that park into a nice home-field advantage. I know they go first to third better than anyone. That’s a key, playing in that ballpark.”
AL scout: “Sometimes seeing a team play a lot you can get a more negative opinion than what their record is, and sometimes it can be a more positive opinion than their record. With the Tigers, it’s the latter. And they already have a pretty good record.”
AL exec: “I’ve tried to fill out playoff rotations without a true ace. It’s really tough. So having Tarik Skubal makes all the difference for me. Unless he runs out of gas, Detroit is my pick.”
If not Toronto or Detroit, then who?
A case can be made for any of the wild-card entrants — depending on where Houston finishes, as it remains in a tight division battle with Seattle — to pull off an October upset with big-game experience oozing from the Astros and Yankees lineups. New York can also slug, of course, while the return of Yordan Alvarez makes Houston’s offense ever so dangerous again.
The Red Sox, on the other hand, have made the postseason only once (2021) since winning the World Series in 2018. However, they feature a balanced lineup with playoff leadership in the form of Alex Bregman. Plus, Aroldis Chapman is about as good as it gets on the closer front.
AL player: “It’s the Red Sox. They are playing good baseball. They have formidable pitching starting with [Garrett] Crochet and their lineup is cohesive and looks like they have a good time together. They know how to win with Bregman there.”
AL player: “Everyone is forgetting that Yordan Alvarez missed most of the season. He’s a difference-maker. And when we played them, Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown were as good as any two pitchers. Houston is my pick.”
Until recently, the Mariners hadn’t shown the league their best hand, ending up in the sleeper category because of it. Those we spoke to said Seattle simply has more upside available to it than any other team.
AL player: “A team that can get really hot that isn’t playing its best baseball is Seattle. That pitching staff is legit. [Cal] Raleigh hit 50 [home runs] but they have other guys that are built for that moment — the spotlight moment. Randy Arozarena and [Eugenio] Suarez are two of them. They’re built to win late.”
NL player: “It’s one of those lineups where everyone is waiting for them to put it all together. Their rotation is very talented, and they have one of the best closers in the league. I think they’re one of those teams that, if they get hot at the right time, no one can beat them.”
AL exec: “Seattle has one of its best teams we’ve seen there in years. If there is a real sleeper in this entire playoff field, it’s the Seattle Mariners.”
AL exec: “Seattle is my ‘surprise’ team. I think a bad year for pitching in Seattle could get flipped on its head in the postseason with their starters picking it up.”
And in the biggest twist of the 2025 season, the Cleveland Guardians have rocked the American League playoff picture with a September surge, emerging as a serious contender in both the AL Central and wild-card races entering the final week.
Beyond division races, there are many storylines to watch as the regular season comes to an end and playoffs begin: Where do current playoff matchups stand? What games should you be paying attention to each day leading up to October? Who will be the next team to clinch a postseason berth? And what does the playoff schedule look like?
We have everything you need to know as the regular season hits the homestretch.
The Brewers clinched the season’s first playoff spot for a second consecutive year on Saturday with a Mets’ loss to Texas.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies clinched a spot in the postseason on Sunday with the Giants’ loss to the Dodgers. On Monday with a win over the Dodgers, they clinched the NL East title for the second straight year.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs clinched their spot in the postseason on Wednesday with a win over the Pirates. It’s their first playoff appearance in a full-length season since 2018.
The Dodgers clinched their 13th consecutive playoff appearance on Friday when the Phillies beat the Diamondbacks.
Who can clinch a playoff spot next?
The Blue Jays, Yankees, Mariners and Padres all have at least a 97% chance of making the postseason, as well.
What are this October’s MLB playoff matchups as it stands now?
American League
Wild-card round: (6) Guardians at (3) Tigers, (5) Red Sox at (4) Yankees
ALDS: Guardians/Tigers vs. (2) Mariners, Red Sox/Yankees vs. (1) Blue Jays
National League
Wild-card round: (6) Mets at (3) Dodgers, (5) Padres at (4) Cubs
NLDS: Mets/Dodgers vs. (2) Phillies, Padres/Cubs vs. (1) Brewers
Breaking down the AL race
The Blue Jays have taken control of the race for the AL’s No. 1 seed. While Toronto sits atop the AL East, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are duking it out for wild-card seeding. And the Seattle Mariners are attempting to separate themselves from the Houston Astros in a two-team AL West race. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Guardians are in hot pursuit of the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central while also playing themselves into a tight race for the final wild-card spot.
And what about when these teams get to the postseason? Here’s what their chances are for every round:
Breaking down the NL race
The Brewers were the first MLB team to seal its spot in October, and the Phillies — who then sealed an NL East title — clinched next. A group of contenders have separated themselves atop the NL standings with the New York Mets clinging to a lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants and Cincinnati Reds for the final playoff spot, and there is intrigue in the NL West as the Dodgers attempt to fend off the Padres for the division crown.
And what about when these teams get to the postseason? Here’s what their chances are for every round:
Game of the day
Looking for something to watch today? Here’s the baseball game with the biggest playoff implications:
Playoff schedule
Wild-card series Best of three, all games at better seed’s stadium
Game 1: Tuesday, Sept. 30 Game 2: Wednesday, Oct. 1 Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 2*
Division series Best of five
ALDS Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 4 Game 2: Sunday, Oct. 5 Game 3: Tuesday, Oct. 7 Game 4: Wednesday, Oct. 8* Game 5: Friday, Oct. 10*
NLDS Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 4 Game 2: Monday, Oct. 6 Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 8 Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 9* Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 11*
League championship series Best of seven
ALCS Game 1: Sunday, Oct. 12 Game 2: Monday, Oct. 13 Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 15 Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 16 Game 5: Friday, Oct. 17* Game 6: Sunday, Oct. 19* Game 7: Monday, Oct. 20*
NLCS Game 1: Monday, Oct. 13 Game 2: Tuesday, Oct. 14 Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 16 Game 4: Friday, Oct. 17 Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 18* Game 6: Monday, Oct. 20* Game 7: Tuesday, Oct. 21*
World Series Best of seven
Game 1: Friday, Oct. 24 Game 2: Saturday, Oct. 25 Game 3: Monday, Oct. 27 Game 4: Tuesday, Oct. 28 Game 5: Wednesday, Oct. 29* Game 6: Friday, Oct. 31* Game 7: Saturday, Nov. 1*
Ohtani pulled even with Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber when the Japanese star connected for a 403-foot shot to left field in the sixth inning. It was Ohtani’s 29th homer at Dodger Stadium this season, a franchise record. He topped his own mark of 28 last year, when he finished with a career-high 54 on the way to winning his third MVP award and first in the National League.
“I think that the home run title will be great. But I think it’s just a byproduct of taking good at-bats, and he’s playing to win,” Roberts said. “If there’s a walk that’s needed and they’re not pitching to him, he’s taking his walks. And if they make a mistake, he’s making them pay.”
Ohtani also scored his career-high 140th run of the season.
Another remarkable season by the two-way star had the rest of his clubhouse touting the case for a third straight MVP award.
“I haven’t looked up any deep numbers or anything like that, but I think [the MVP is] Shohei,” said starter Tyler Glasnow, who rebounded from a four-run first inning with four scoreless innings to get the win. “He pitches and hits. I think it’s obviously Shohei, in my mind.”
Max Muncy‘s two-run homer in the first inning pulled Los Angeles to 4-2. Michael Conforto also went deep and Tommy Edman hit a tiebreaking shot for the playoff-bound Dodgers, who won their fourth straight and lead the NL West by four games over the San Diego Padres with seven to play.