No repeat division winners? A 64-homer season!? Our hottest hot takes two weeks into the MLB season
We are two weeks into the 2023 MLB season, and most teams have played a dozen games of their 162-game schedule. In other words, it’s early. Perhaps too early to glean a whole lot from what has happened so far. But what’s the fun in that?
We asked our MLB experts to go all-in on what they’ve seen by making a prediction based on this small sample size. They were allowed to pick anything they wanted, with two conditions: It had to be bold, and it had to be something they truly believe could happen this season.
Some of our predictors went really wild, while others chose to play it safe, so we took the liberty of ranking their choices from mild to spicy. Here is what they chose.
Born to be mild
AJ Mass: San Francisco will be the even-steven Giants
Forget the very good Tampa Bay Rays, off to an 11-0 start, and the very bad Oakland Athletics, already in last place and on their way to a 100-loss campaign. My hot take is that the San Francisco Giants will be the most feast and famine team in all of baseball. They’re going to have their very good days. They’re going to have their very bad days. But by the time we get to October, they’ll be exactly 81-81. And here’s where it gets interesting: They’ll lead the league both in the number of times they are shut out and the number of times they score in double digits.
Why it’s mild: This prediction is oddly specific, but that doesn’t make it all that bold. It’s a long season — and we all have our good days and our bad days. Our preseason projections had the Giants at 85 wins, so predicting them to finish four wins off, with an equal number of really good and really bad moments, isn’t going all that far out on a limb.
Joon Lee: A last-place finish in Boston?
Adam Duvall‘s broken wrist revealed the wobbly foundation of the Boston Red Sox‘s roster. To replace Duvall, Boston called up Bobby Dalbec, who has been trying to add shortstop and third base to his repertoire. The injury is pushing Boston to play Enrique Hernandez — who started the season at shortstop — in the outfield, where he has led the league in errors while filling in for the injured Trevor Story.
Boston already needed everything to go right this season to have a shot at the playoffs — but one injury has already shaken the Red Sox’s roster to its core.
Why it’s mild: To understand why we aren’t exactly melting from the heat of this take, one needs to look no further than the 2022 American League East standings, where you will find the Boston Red Sox all the way at the bottom. Combine what we saw on the field last year, the lack of a splashy offseason addition and a slow start this season, and it might actually be bolder to predict the Red Sox will finish anywhere other than the basement of a loaded division.
It’s not that you aren’t bold; others are just bolder
Brad Doolittle: The Brewers will make the playoffs — and the Dodgers won’t
I’m going to refrain from pointing out how the concept of hot takes makes rational people say things that they don’t actually mean. Instead, I will just point out that in 2023, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a wider range of possibilities than they have had at any time in the past decade or longer. I also think the Milwaukee Brewers are going to make the playoffs. That is not a hot take. If the Brewers invade what felt like a largely set National League playoff field, someone will miss out. The hot take part of my otherwise rational mind tells me that team will be the Dodgers.
Why it’s (mostly) mild: OK, we’re going to refrain from pointing out that the concept of this exercise is to bring out your inner hot taker to tell us what you really mean but haven’t yet said. Instead, we will just point out that you spent the first half of your allotted hot take window explaining why the Brewers making the playoffs isn’t a hot take. Then right there at the end, you heat up and drop some boldness on us. We’ll give you some points for predicting the Dodgers’ playoff streak will end, but your hot take delivery is a work in progress, at best.
Eric Karabell: Rookies will carry the Dodgers to the top of the NL West
The Dodgers will have at least three of the top five in NL Rookie of the Year voting. James Outman already should be their regular center fielder, a potential 20-homer, 20-steal option with plate discipline. Second baseman Miguel Vargas is a walk magnet with power. Down on the farm, right-handers Gavin Stone and Bobby Miller are future aces; both are already better than No. 5 starter Noah Syndergaard, and who knows if Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin can stay healthy for six months. The Dodgers will win the NL West again, led by rookies in the lineup and rotation.
Why it’s (mostly) mild: This take is actually hotter than it looks on the surface. First, it’s important to point out that this is starting to feel like a loaded rookie class in the National League. Corbin Carroll, Jordan Walker, Kodai Senga and Garrett Mitchell have all shown why they are threats to win the award this year alongside the first two Dodgers you mentioned. Then you go ahead and add a third Dodger, who isn’t in the majors yet, as a potential breakout name to watch — and casually put L.A. ahead of San Diego in the NL West. Nailed the dismount.
Now we’re heating up
Tim Keown: The 2023 Athletics just might be the worst team … ever
It gives me no pleasure to report that the Oakland Athletics — who currently have a 3-9 record with an OPS of .655 and an ERA of 7.54 — have all the pieces in place to challenge the 1962 New York Mets for most losses in a 162-game season. The Mets, in their first season, lost 120, and it remains to be seen if the A’s can conjure the same lovable loser mythology that allowed those Mets to achieve a certain legendary status in the game’s history. More likely, Oakland’s unique combination of a spin-the-wheel roster and apathetic ownership will go down as more sad than playful.
Why it’s got some heat: Yes, the A’s are 3-9, but we really don’t need the standings to tell us that this is not a good baseball team. You also weren’t quite willing to predict that they would become the biggest single-season losers of all time — just that they have a chance to challenge for the dubious mark. That said, any time you are willing to throw out a comparison to the 1962 Mets this early in the season, you have our attention.
Alden Gonzalez: Shohei Ohtani will win the Cy Young, Silver Slugger, Gold Glove and, of course, MVP
I will say this confidently without even looking it up: This has never been done before. And thinking this is anything less than the hottest take imaginable only speaks to how much of a unicorn Shohei Ohtani actually is. Still, it’s … realistic? Let’s break it down.
Ohtani already won a Silver Slugger in 2021, and Yordan Alvarez won it in the designated hitter category in 2022. It could come down to those two again this year. The Cy Young might be just as reachable, given that Ohtani finished fourth in the voting last year, he lines up to make more starts in 2023 (he’ll pitch with five days’ rest each time, as opposed to operating within a strict six-man rotation and often getting additional time between starts) and he continues to evolve as a pitcher. A Gold Glove? That might actually be his toughest award; it’s really hard to decipher this for pitchers due to the rarity of fielding opportunities at that position. But Ohtani certainly has the ability here too. If he earns all three, he’ll win the MVP unanimously, again, and sign for a billion dollars — or something like that.
Why it’s got some heat: This take is not quite as hot as it originally sounds — but that is more a product of Ohtani being really, really good than a fault of the hot taker. Predicting any player to unanimously win MVP honors in a league that could see Aaron Judge hit 60-plus home runs again is bold. Predicting that same player will be the Cy Young in his league is also bold. The trouble here is that Ohtani is so amazing that predicting him to win both is actually taking a favorite for each award.
Now, if Ohtani’s next contract is actually for one billion dollars, we’ll come back and crown this the spiciest take on the list.
Wait, is anything about the Rays really that bold right now?
0:37
Mad Dog pours cold water on Rays’ hot start
Chris “Mad Dog” Russo doesn’t see the Rays as a World Series contender despite their hot start this season.
Buster Olney: The Rays will go wire to wire in the AL East
I’ll take my first mulligan in the preseason predictions and say: The Tampa Bay Rays are going to go wire to wire and win the AL East. That doesn’t mean that the New York Yankees or Toronto Blue Jays will fade; those are two very good teams. But the first two weeks have revealed the Rays as a deep and dangerous team: Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena have developed into core stars, and they’re surrounded by an excellent cast of supporting players. History shows us it’s possible for teams to break away early, never to be caught: the 1984 Tigers, 1955 Dodgers and 1977 Dodgers are examples. The balanced schedule means fewer games against the AL East, which will help the Rays keep their early-season grip on first place.
Why it’s actually pretty hot: Just two weeks ago, our MLB experts made their predictions for the season — and only one of our 28 voters tabbed the Rays to win the AL East. Now that was bold. But being willing to go all-in on Tampa Bay’s fast start two weeks in is still pretty hot. This leaves us to wonder how many of the other 27 voters who didn’t pick the Rays would switch their pick if given the chance today.
Jeff Passan: Your 2023 AL Cy Young will be … Jeffrey Springs
Yes, I’m suggesting a 30-year-old who before last season had started two games in his major league career is primed to beat out Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom and Shohei Ohtani for the prize of best pitcher in the American League. A 30th-round draft pick on his third organization will be better than Dylan Cease, Kevin Gausman and even his own teammate Shane McClanahan. Why? Well, the one-word answer is: sweeper. Springs bullied his way into Tampa Bay’s rotation last year on the strength of exceptional fastball command and a gyro-spinning changeup that dies three-quarters of the way to the plate. But the emergence of a legitimately excellent breaking pitch — the sweeping slider he developed over the winter — has taken a good pitcher and made him great. In six starts between spring training and the regular season, Springs has thrown 27 shutout innings, struck out 43 and allowed only 16 baserunners. He’s still +2500 to win the Cy Young. Get in before the odds grow even shorter.
Why it’s actually pretty hot: OK, Rays or not, this is coming in hot. Be honest, readers: How many of you actually knew who Jeffrey Springs was two weeks ago? (How many of you knew who he was two minutes ago?) Now, how about those readers who live outside of the greater Tampa area? Not many, right? So predicting the Rays pitcher will go from relative obscurity to topping names like Cole, deGrom, Ohtani, Cease, Alek Manoah for the AL’s top pitching honor is a very spicy take.
We do have to wonder though: Is this simply a case of one Jeffrey going all-in for another?
Who turned up the heat?
Paul Hembekides: 230 hits for Luis Arraez
I know, 230 is a massive number; no hitter has gotten there since Ichiro Suzuki in 2007. But there are two reasons Arraez can pull it off: He leads the majors in contact rate (91%) since he entered the league in 2019 and will benefit from the abolition of the shift as much as anybody (.178 batting average on pulled ground balls and infield line drives from 2019 to 2022). Should he continue to bat leadoff for the Miami Marlins, pencil him in for 700 plate appearances and a run at a hit total we’ve not seen in 16 years.
Why it’s a very hot take: You had us at Ichiro. Any time the category is hits and the answer includes “nobody has done this since Ichiro,” you are probably talking about a pretty significant feat. In fact, here is the entire list of players to reach 230 hits in a single season since 2000: Ichiro (three times) and Darin Erstad (in 2000). Add in the fact that Arraez’s career high is just 173 hits and the heat just keeps rising on this take.
Jesse Rogers: None of last year’s six division winners will repeat
This is coming from someone who picked all 12 playoff teams to return to the postseason two weeks ago. In the AL, the Seattle Mariners or Texas Rangers will upend the Houston Astros. The Minnesota Twins or Chicago White Sox will beat out the Cleveland Guardians. The Rays … well, you get it.
In the NL, Milwaukee’s magic continues through 162, and the San Diego Padres — or even the Arizona Diamondbacks — win the NL West. The NL East is where this take gets toughest; I don’t love picking against the Atlanta Braves, but the Mets will get a boost when Justin Verlander returns.
Why it’s a very hot take: A little behind-the-scenes hot take truth: This take just missed making the cut for our final and boldest category. What you did here reminds us of a term you usually hear in Las Vegas: parlay. None of these predictions is all that bold alone, but when you keep stacking the teams that won’t repeat as division champs, it adds up to a very hot take.
So what kept it just shy of the tier every hot taker is striving to reach? Well, let’s use another term you often hear in Vegas: hedging. There are a lot of eithers and ors when you get around to telling us who actually will win these divisions. And for that reason, it falls just shy of the next two takes.
You sure you can handle this heat?
David Schoenfield: Aaron Judge hits 64 home runs and posts the first 11-WAR season since Barry Bonds in 2002
Home runs are up. Batting averages are up. Walks are way up as pitchers are perhaps struggling adjusting to the pitch clock. Oh, and Aaron Judge is off to a strong start with four home runs already. Last year, he hit one his first 13 games. Judge’s maturation as a hitter is now complete; don’t forget that he hit .311 last season, second in the American League. He has learned to take care of his body and has been healthy the past two seasons. We haven’t even gotten to the warmer weather of summer when the ball really starts flying. All rise for a new AL home run record for the second straight season.
Why this take is straight fire: Look, every take on this list is hot in some shape or form. So to make it into this elite tier, the hottest of hot takes, it takes something extra spicy — and this take certainly fits.
In fact, when this take arrived, another hot taker couldn’t help but comment, “Dave coming in with a flamethrower and propane tank.” And who are we to argue over something that drew that kind of reaction. Sure, we could pick nits that the first half of this prediction is actually calling for Judge to hit just two more home runs than he did last season, which is not all that bold. But you then went ahead and doubled down with a WAR total that Barry Bonds is the only position player to reach this century and left us with no choice but to respect the heat.
Tristan Cockcroft: Rangers will be the AL West’s last team standing this October
They play in a competitive division in which three other teams were generally more popular preseason playoff picks; indeed, the Rangers were regarded more of a hey-maybe-in-2024 contender. But this team is built strongly enough to win now — and make serious noise during the postseason. Sure, a little luck is needed on the injury front (hello, Jacob deGrom), but piling up April and May wins will have a way of coaxing the Rangers’ big-spending, going-for-it-soon owner to dive right in. And since they possess organizational prospect depth that a mere handful of teams can rival, this is the team that shocks the world by trading for Shohei Ohtani at the deadline, the final puzzle player the Rangers need to make their serious October push. Just like last October, we’ll again be talking up the managerial prowess of an ex-Giants skipper.
Why this take is straight fire: When this take came in, we passed it around like, well, a hot potato, because we couldn’t handle the heat. One response summed it up best: “It’s like a Trojan horse. It’s bold … then gets super-specific bold.”
If you had just picked the Rangers to be the last AL West team standing, ahead of the defending champion Astros and the Shohei Ohtani/Mike Trout-led Angels, that alone would have been bold. But the way you just snuck in, “Oh, by the way, they’ll also trade for Ohtani — from across the same division, mind you,” without skipping a beat, that is the stuff of hot take legend. Now we just have to wait about 150 more games to see if any of this comes true.
Forget everything you thought you knew in August.
At the midpoint of the season, Penn State has three losses, Clemson has three losses, Texas is trying to claw its way back into the playoff conversation, and undefeated Indiana is … a top five team?!
“This showed the country we’re a real team,” Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza told reporters after the Hoosiers’ 30-20 win at Oregon. “We’re not just a one-hit wonder.”
Separation has started to occur, true playoff contenders have begun to emerge through statement wins, and the battle for No. 1 is ongoing. Alabama has made a case for the selection committee’s top one-loss team, and Notre Dame has battled back after an 0-2 start to position itself as the top two-loss team.
The jockeying for top seeds, first-round byes and first-round home games continues, but Week 7’s top 12 prediction is a snapshot of who’s got the early edge if the ranking were released halfway through the season.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The Buckeyes now have two impressive road wins, adding Saturday’s 34-16 victory at Illinois to the Sept. 27 win at Washington. The Buckeyes have defeated three straight Big Ten opponents who are all at .500 or better, including two on the road. Miami has one road win and hasn’t left its home state yet. Ohio State’s defense has been one of the best in the country, and quarterback Julian Sayin has been one of the nation’s most efficient, mistake-free quarterbacks. The Buckeyes are a complete team, ranked in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency — a historic trait of the selection committee’s past playoff teams. The 70-0 win against FCS Grambling, though, impacts some of that. Ohio State’s nonconference win against Texas will continue to be valuable within the committee meeting room, as the Longhorns’ win against rival Oklahoma bolsters their chance to be a CFP top 25 team.
Why they could be lower: Indiana just earned the best win in the country, and Miami still has one of the best overall résumés. The Canes were on a bye week but got another boost Friday night when South Florida hammered previously undefeated North Texas 63-36. Some committee members would argue that Miami’s win against Notre Dame is better than Ohio State’s win against Texas.
Need to know: Ohio State has more than a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games, according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. The Buckeyes are trying to avoid a fifth straight loss to their rivals.
Why they could be here: The selection committee typically doesn’t move teams around if they don’t play, unless it happens as a result of shuffling around them. Ohio State’s win at Illinois strengthened its résumé, and the Buckeyes were also helped by Texas beating Oklahoma. It didn’t help the Canes that Florida State picked up its third loss, this one to an unranked Pitt team. Miami’s overall body of work, though, is still worthy of consideration for the top spot. South Florida’s 63-36 lopsided win Friday night against previously undefeated North Texas further enhanced the Canes’ 49-12 drubbing of the Bulls on Sept. 13. What’s really separating Miami from Ohio State, though, is the season-opening win against Notre Dame, which has played its way back into the top 25 after winning four straight.
Why they could be higher: Miami has a case to be ranked No. 1 with wins against Notre Dame, South Florida, Florida State and Florida. The win against the Irish continues to look good after Notre Dame pulled away for a convincing win against NC State on Saturday. Entering Week 7, Miami was No. 2 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, with a slight edge over Ohio State.
Need to know: Entering Saturday, no team in the country had a better chance to win out than Miami (32.1%), according to ESPN Analytics. Miami is projected to win each of its remaining games — and none of them are likely to feature a top 25 opponent.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at SMU. This will be the first time Miami leaves its home state, and it’s not an easy trip. It’s also the last chance to make a first impression on the CFP selection committee, which will release its first of six rankings the Tuesday after this game.
Why they could be here: The Hoosiers just earned the best win in the country, beating Oregon on its home turf, where the Ducks had won 18 straight games. Indiana’s defense looked legit, and the Hoosiers have a Heisman hopeful quarterback in Mendoza. IU has now reeled off three straight wins against Big Ten opponents, including back-to-back road wins against Iowa and Oregon. The selection committee would likely hold the Hoosiers back from a higher spot right now, though, because half of their wins came against Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and FCS Indiana State.
Why they could be higher: The selection committee compares common opponents, and while the Hoosiers don’t play Ohio State during the regular season, they both played Illinois. Indiana hammered the Fighting Illini 63-10, handing coach Bret Bielema the worst loss of his career. Ohio State won with relative ease Saturday, beating Illinois 34-16, but it wasn’t the kind of jaw-dropping beatdown the Hoosiers executed.
Need to know: Indiana’s head-to-head win against Oregon impacts both the Big Ten standings and the CFP seeding process. If IU’s only loss were to Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game, the Hoosiers could still finish in the top four and earn a first-round bye because those top four seeds are no longer reserved for conference champions. This was the only game on Indiana’s schedule the Hoosiers weren’t favored to win.
Toughest remaining game: Geez. Nov. 1 at Maryland is suddenly the biggest looming obstacle. The Terps are a respectable 4-2 and have lost their past two games by a combined seven points. The Nov. 8 trip to Penn State is a shadow of the test it once appeared to be after the Nittany Lions have lost three straight, reaching a new low with Saturday’s loss to Northwestern.
Why they could be here: The Aggies eventually pulled away from a stingy Florida defense to remain undefeated and with a lead in the SEC race. The Aggies and Ole Miss are the only undefeated teams remaining in their conference, but Texas A&M entered Saturday ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric — ahead of both Miami and Ohio State. The Week 3 win at Notre Dame continues to elevate the Aggies’ résumé, but it’s the only road win so far.
Why they could be lower: Some selection committee members could give Alabama more credit for three straight wins against ranked opponents, including two on the road. Texas A&M has only one win against a ranked opponent, and wins against UTSA and Utah State don’t help much.
Need to know: The Aggies are about to enter their season-defining stretch of three straight road games (Arkansas, LSU and Missouri). If Texas A&M loses a game, it will also likely lose the debate with one-loss Alabama if it hasn’t already.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Texas. The Longhorns might have had a turning point Saturday in their win against rival Oklahoma. If Texas can continue to improve offensively, it could be one of the most complete teams the Aggies face in the second half of the season.
Why they could be here: The Tide earned a second road win against a previously undefeated team, this time escaping Missouri to remain undefeated in the SEC. Alabama has now won five straight games since its season-opening loss at Florida State, including three straight against ranked and previously undefeated SEC teams. That résumé combined with the evident growth of quarterback Ty Simpson gives the Tide the strongest case to be the committee’s highest-ranked one-loss team. Heading into Saturday, the only other one-loss team that came close to the Tide in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric was Illinois, and the Fighting Illini lost to Ohio State in Week 7.
Why they could be lower: Ole Miss wasn’t pretty Saturday against Washington State, but the Rebels are still undefeated and Bama’s not. Plus, Alabama’s loss is now to a three-loss Florida State after the Noles lost to Pitt.
Need to know: The selection committee considers injuries to key players, and Alabama had a few scares Saturday. Receiver Derek Meadows appeared to be knocked unconscious in the first quarter, and coach Kalen DeBoer later said Meadows suffered a concussion. Running back Jam Miller, who had 136 yards in the Tide’s win against Vandy, also suffered a concussion in the fourth quarter.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Auburn. The Tigers gave Georgia fits Saturday night and controlled the first half. They’ll have home-field advantage in the Iron Bowl, where anything can happen.
Why they could be here: The Rebels were underwhelming after a bye week and fortunate to beat Washington State at home 24-21. The committee pays attention to how teams win, and the Rebels trailed 14-10 late in the third quarter. Still, Ole Miss has wins against Tulane, which is in the running for the Group of 5 playoff spot, and the committee will continue to reward the Sept. 27 home win against LSU. The Rebels also have a budding star in quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who accounted for three total touchdowns against the Cougars on Saturday.
Why they could be lower: Georgia State, Kentucky and Arkansas are a combined 5-12 and unranked, and the win against the Wildcats is the Rebels’ lone road win.
Need to know: Ole Miss has back-to-back road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma looming, what’s likely to be its last games against ranked opponents. If the Rebels were to lose both, the rest of their schedule could raise concerns with some committee meeting members. Ole Miss needs to find a statement road win this month to help avoid that debate.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Georgia. The Bulldogs found a way to beat a gritty Auburn team on the road and are looking better than the Sooners right now.
Why they could be here: The Bulldogs were outplayed by Auburn in the first half but found a way to win on the road against a decent team that had a bye week to prepare. Georgia remains one of the country’s top one-loss teams but will be stuck behind Alabama in the committee meeting room because of the head-to-head tiebreaker as long as their records are comparable. Georgia could also be ahead of Oregon because the Bulldogs’ lone loss was in overtime on the road, while Oregon lost at home Saturday to IU.
Why they could be lower: Georgia’s best win is against a Tennessee team that hasn’t exactly wowed anyone yet, and the Bulldogs needed overtime to do it. Texas Tech is still undefeated, and some committee members could reward it for that ahead of both Georgia and Oregon.
Need to know: Georgia’s two best remaining chances to impress the selection committee will be Saturday against Ole Miss and in the regular-season finale against Georgia Tech. If Georgia beats the Jackets, it’s still possible they could have a win against the eventual ACC champs.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 vs. Ole Miss. If the Rebels play like they did in their win against LSU — a complete game — they’ll give Georgia trouble.
Why they could be here: The Ducks faced their toughest opponent to date and lost at home to Indiana, a significant setback in the Big Ten race but hardly a dagger in their CFP hopes. The bigger problem is the lack of a true statement win, as the Sept. 27 double overtime win at Penn State has been significantly devalued following the three-loss Nittany Lions’ unraveling. A win against FCS Montana State isn’t going to impress the committee, nor will a win against an Oklahoma State team that fired its head coach. Oregon’s best win so far is at 4-2 Northwestern, which also beat Penn State. Indiana’s defense also gave Oregon its biggest challenge of the season, holding the Ducks to a season-low 20 points.
Why they could be lower: Oregon didn’t exactly pass the eye test against better competition, as quarterback Dante Moore threw two interceptions and was sacked six times. Oregon has three pick-sixes this season, its most in a season since 2018. Oregon was just 3-of-14 on third downs and was held to 81 rushing yards.
Need to know: That might have been Oregon’s last chance during the regular season to impress the selection committee with a win against a ranked opponent. If the Ducks run the table and finish as a one-loss team — which they should barring an upset — that could come back to haunt them on Selection Day. Another one-loss team like Alabama that has multiple wins against CFP top 25 teams will get the edge in a debate. That doesn’t mean their playoff hopes are in any danger, but it could mean the difference between hosting a first-round home game and traveling.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Washington. The Ducks also have a tricky matchup Nov. 22 against USC but will have home-field advantage. Ending the season on the road against a respectable Washington team after a tough game against the Trojans is more difficult than it appears.
Why they could be here: The Red Raiders have gained traction and legitimized their place in the playoff with three straight convincing wins against Big 12 opponents with winning records. Entering Week 7, Texas Tech was ranked No. 8 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, which gave the average top 25 opponent a 44.1% chance to achieve the same undefeated record against the same opponents. The Red Raiders have the best chance to reach the Big 12 title game and win it, which would guarantee them a spot in the field.
Why they could be lower: Texas Tech’s weak nonconference schedule includes a win against FCS Arkansas-Pine Bluff (2-3), Kent State (2-4) and Oregon State (0-7). Their best win is Sept. 20 at Utah, which isn’t as impressive as most of the other contenders’ statement wins.
Need to know: Backup quarterback storylines have been integral to the CFP selection process — for better or for worse, depending on the situation — and the Red Raiders have proved on multiple occasions now that they can win without injured starter Behren Morton. He was hurt again Saturday and left the game against Kansas, but the Big 12’s third-leading passer also had to leave against Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Utah with injuries. The committee will appreciate the fact that Texas Tech has a No. 2 capable of winning in Will Hammond.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 vs. BYU. The Cougars and Red Raiders could face each other in the Big 12 championship game, but they have to face each other during the regular season first.
Why they could be here: Even the speedy return of injured quarterback John Mateer wasn’t enough to overcome a stingy Texas defense Saturday, as the Sooners were held to just six points. Oklahoma’s Week 2 win against Michigan is still one of the better nonconference wins in the country, though, and helps separate the Sooners from some other teams with weaker nonconference lineups. The selection committee also respects wins against opponents with .500 records or better, and the Sept. 20 win against Auburn would still be favorable in the committee meeting room.
Why they could be lower: Texas was the best defense OU has faced so far, and it exposed some weaknesses teams like Illinois State, Temple and Kent State couldn’t. Mateer threw three interceptions and completed 20 of 38 pass attempts just 17 days after surgery on his right hand.
Need to know: Oklahoma entered Saturday with the most difficult remaining schedule in the FBS, according to ESPN Analytics. The Sooners travel to South Carolina on Saturday before ending the season against what should be five straight ranked opponents.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Alabama. The Tide have won five straight and will have a bye week and home-field advantage.
Why they could be here: The Tigers’ lone loss is to an undefeated Ole Miss on the road, and LSU’s defense continues to be one of the best in the country. LSU held off a pesky South Carolina team Saturday, limiting the Gamecocks to just one touchdown.
Why they could be lower: Wins against Clemson and Florida aren’t going to separate LSU from other one-loss teams, and the Tigers have struggled to consistently play complete football in all three phases. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier threw two interceptions against South Carolina, and the Tigers also lost a fumble. LSU is still searching for a statement win.
Need to know: One of the statistics the selection committee has historically leaned on is called “relative scoring defense,” which is something it would probably look at with LSU. How are the Tigers doing defensively against teams that typically score more than they allow? Those tests are yet to come, but the 24-19 loss to Ole Miss likely didn’t help that particular metric. If LSU is going to lean on its elite defense, it has to show up against the best offenses.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Alabama. It’s not just that it’s Bama — it’s the third straight game against a ranked opponent, as LSU faces Vandy and Texas A&M before the Tide. If LSU loses to one of them, it will be under tremendous pressure to win in Tuscaloosa.
Why they could be here: The Vols were fortunate to beat a 2-4 Arkansas team at home — one week after they escaped Mississippi State with an overtime win. It hasn’t been pretty, and Tennessee is still searching for a statement win. They’ve got an FCS win, a lopsided win against UAB and a decent nonconference win against a 3-3 Syracuse team that was more formidable with its starting quarterback in the lineup at the time they played them. That’s a detail the selection committee would consider.
Why they could be lower: Tennessee hasn’t looked like an elite team, struggling to stop the run and racking up penalties. The Vols were tied at 17 at the half with a team that recently fired its head coach. The committee has overlooked a lack of statement wins before, but typically that forgiveness happens when a contender is controlling games — not squeaking by unranked teams.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, the Vols would be bumped out to make room for the fifth-highest ranked conference champion, which is guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field. Right now that team — the American champion — would be ranked outside the top 12.
Toughest remaining game: Saturday at Alabama. Tennessee’s lone loss was in overtime to Georgia, which also lost to Alabama.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 3 Indiana
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Alabama
No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 7 Georgia
No. 9 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Alabama winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 LSU/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Indiana
No. 10 Oklahoma/No. 7 Georgia winner vs. No. 2 Miami
No. 9 Texas Tech/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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