Ukraine has set the stage for a new era of war – and AI could supercharge it

Published

2 years ago

May 7, 2023

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Drones have been part of the military inventory for decades, but the war in Ukraine has seen a massive escalation in their exploitation. Does this herald the start of a new era in modern warfare, and will the rapid development of AI lead to the inevitable dawn of drone wars?

Unmanned flight predates manned, but the limits of technology have – to date – made unmanned air vehicles (UAV) vulnerable and thus unsuitable for widespread military use.

However, the relatively benign air environment over Afghanistan led to the development of a new generation of loitering platforms – such as the US Reaper – that could fly for over 20 hours and provide live-streaming video to HQs the other side of the world.

Russia has used hundreds of drones to target Ukrainian cities and critical national infrastructure.

Missiles, each costing hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars, fly fast, are hard to shoot down and carry a huge explosive payload.

But when supplies ran low, the Russians imported Shahid 136 UAVs from Iran. These UAVs are slow and vulnerable to small-arms fire but can be used as a swarm to overwhelm defences – and some get through.

The Ukrainians have also exploited UAVs to target Russian logistics hubs to great effect, most recently targeting a fuel storage facility on Crimea and another just east of the Kerch Bridge linking Crimea to Russia.

However, the alleged drone attack on the Kremlin on Tuesday night looked extremely suspect – the Kremlin is a fortress, with multiple layers of air and land defences, and a slow-speed UAV should never have made it through.

Regardless, the incident demonstrated the broad utility of drones, both as a weapon of destruction, and of deception.

Smaller tactical drones have also proven invaluable in this conflict, particularly at the frontline.

As early as 1794, observation balloons were used as an aerial platform for gathering intelligence and spotting artillery, and in World War One, Royal Flying Corps aircraft took the opportunity to drop hand grenades on enemy trench positions.

More than a century later, small UAVs are also being used to fulfil the same role.

Surveillance technology has advanced apace – leveraging advances in the space and satellite markets – with sensors becoming lighter, more powerful and with reduced power requirements.

Small drones are quiet, cheap, easily reconfigurable, and can provide live-streamed video of enemy positions directly to artillery – like playing a card game when you can see what card the other side has in their hand.

As Russia counters one capability, so the Ukrainians adapt and innovate.

Technology – and its rapid exploitation – has provided Ukraine with an asymmetric advantage in this conflict.

Although the United States has the lead in high-end UAVs, the global leader in the mass market is China, and when coupled with the rapid advances in AI capability, UAVs look set to become a mass-market, high volume, cost-effective military capability.

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Conventional warfighting wisdom is that bigger is better – high-end tanks, aircraft and ships will prevail. However, the Ukraine conflict has demonstrated the huge warfighting potential of UAVs, where quantity has a quality all of its own.

A year ago, the UAV market was focused on domestic parcel deliveries, driverless cars and multi-UAV light shows.

However, the Ukraine conflict has showcased the dramatic potential of UAVs, which have yet to leverage rapid advances in AI.

The stage is set for a new generation of military capability – the drone wars – enabling low-budget decisive military effect, with profound implications for our international, and domestic, security.

World

IDF chief says conditions ‘created’ for Gaza ceasefire – as Trump says it could be ‘this week or next’

Published

16 hours ago

July 9, 2025

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IDF chief says conditions 'created' for Gaza ceasefire - as Trump says it could be 'this week or next'

Donald Trump and a leading figure in the Israeli army have suggested a ceasefire in Gaza could be close.

Eyal Zamir, chief of staff of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF), told Israeli media that “conditions were created to advance a deal” to bring about an end to the conflict in the coastal territory, and the release of hostages.

In a televised address, he said: “We have achieved many significant results, we have caused great damage to the governance and military capabilities of Hamas.

“Thanks to the operational power that we have demonstrated, the conditions have been created to advance a deal to release the hostages.”

‘This week, or next’

It comes as the US president hosts Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington DC on a prolonged visit this week.

Mr Trump said his meetings with Mr Netanyahu were focused “on Gaza for the most part”.

He said: “I think we have a chance [of a ceasefire] this week, or next week.”

However, the US leader added: “Not definitely,” saying nothing was certain about the situation in Gaza.

Hamas reiterates ‘keenness’ to end fighting

Meanwhile, Hamas has repeated its message that it is committed to the negotiations but warned of a number of sticking points despite the positive noises from senior Israeli figures.

In a statement, the militant group said: “In its keenness to succeed in the ongoing efforts, the movement [Hamas] has shown the necessary flexibility and agreed to release 10 prisoners.

“The key points remain under negotiation, foremost among them: the flow of aid, the withdrawal of the occupation from the territories of the Gaza Strip, and the provision of real guarantees for a permanent ceasefire.”

Mr Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff previously told a cabinet meeting that the anticipated ceasefire would last 60 days and involve the release of ten hostages and nine bodies.

A source close to the negotiations told Sky News that the hostage release would take place in two waves during the 60 days and was conditional on the ceasefire.

Israeli strikes continue

It comes as Israeli attacks on Gaza continue.

According to hospital officials, at least 40 Palestinians were killed in the latest attacks on Gaza – including 10 people from the same family.

Nasser Hospital in the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis said the dead included 17 women and 10 children.

World

Why do so many from around the world try to cross the English Channel?

Published

1 day ago

July 9, 2025

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Why do so many from around the world try to cross the English Channel?

While the politicians talk, so many people come from around the world to try to get across the Channel on small boats. But why?

Why make such a perilous crossing to try to get to a country that seems to be getting increasingly hostile to asylum seekers?

As the British and French leaders meet, with small boats at the forefront of their agenda, we came to northern France to get some answers.

It is not a new question, but it is peppered with fresh relevance.

Over the course of a morning spent around a migrant camp in Dunkirk, we meet migrants from Gaza, Iraq, Eritrea, South Sudan, Sri Lanka and beyond.

Some are fearful, waving us away; some are happy to talk. Very few are comfortable to be filmed.

All but one man – who says he’s come to the wrong place and actually wants to claim asylum in Paris – are intent on reaching Britain.

They see the calm seas, feel the light winds – perfect conditions for small boat crossings.

John has come here from South Sudan. He tells me he’s now 18 years old. He left his war-torn home nation just before his 16th birthday. He feels that reaching Britain is his destiny.

“England is my dream country,” he says. “It has been my dream since I was at school. It’s the country that colonised us and when I get there, I will feel like I am home.

“In England, they can give me an opportunity to succeed or to do whatever I need to do in my life. I feel like I am an English child, who was born in Africa.”

He says he would like to make a career in England, either as a journalist or in human resources, and, like many others we meet, is at pains to insist he will work hard.

The boat crossing is waved away as little more than an inconvenience – a trifle compared with the previous hardships of his journey towards Britain.

We meet a group of men who have all travelled from Gaza, intent on starting new lives in Britain and then bringing their families over to join them.

One man, who left Gaza two years ago, tells me that his son has since been shot in the leg “but there is no hospital for him to go to”.

Next to him, a man called Abdullah says he entered Europe through Greece and stayed there for months on end, but was told the Greek authorities would never allow him to bring over his family.

Britain, he thinks, will be more accommodating. “Gaza is being destroyed – we need help,” he says.

A man from Eritrea tells us he is escaping a failing country and has friends in Britain – he plans to become a bicycle courier in either London or Manchester.

He can’t stay in France, he says, because he doesn’t speak French. The English language is presented as a huge draw for many of the people we talk to, just as it had been during similar conversations over the course of many years.

I ask many of these people why they don’t want to stay in France, or another safe European country.

Some repeat that they cannot speak the language and feel ostracised. Another says that he tried, and failed, to get a residency permit in both France and Belgium.

But this is also, clearly, a flawed survey. Last year, five times as many people sought asylum in France as in Britain.

And French critics have long insisted that Britain, a country without a European-style ID card system, makes itself attractive to migrants who can “disappear”.

A young man from Iraq, with absolutely perfect English, comes for a chat. He oozes confidence and a certain amount of mischief.

It has taken him only seven days to get from Iraq to Dunkirk; when I ask how he has made the trip so quickly, he shrugs. “Money talks”.

He looks around him. “Let me tell you – all of these people you see around you will be getting to Britain and the first job they get will be in the black market, so they won’t be paying any tax.

“Back in the day in Britain, they used to welcome immigrants very well, but these days I don’t think they want to, because there’s too many of them coming by boat. Every day it’s about seven or 800 people. That’s too many people.”

“But,” I ask, “if those people are a problem – then what makes you different? Aren’t you a problem too?”

He shakes his head emphatically. “I know that I’m a very good guy. And I won’t be a problem. I’ll only stay in Britain for a few years and then I’ll leave again.”

A man from Sri Lanka says he “will feel safe” when he gets to Britain; a tall, smiling man from Ethiopia echoes the sentiment: “We are not safe in our home country so we have come all this way,” he says. “We want to work, to be part of Britain.”

Emmanuel is another from South Sudan – thoughtful and eloquent. He left his country five years ago – “at the start of COVID” – and has not seen his children in all that time. His aim is to start a new life in Britain, and then to bring his family to join him.

He is a trained electrical engineer, but says he could also work as a lorry driver. He is adamant that Britain has a responsibility to the people of its former colony.

“The British came to my country – colonising, killing, raping,” he said. “And we didn’t complain. We let it happen.

“I am not the problem. I won’t fight anyone; I want to work. And if I break the laws – if any immigrant breaks the laws – then fine, deport them.

“I know it won’t be easy – some people won’t like me, some people will. But England is my dream.”

World

Trump applying ‘heavy pressure’ on Netanyahu to end war in Gaza

Published

1 day ago

July 9, 2025

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Trump applying 'heavy pressure' on Netanyahu to end war in Gaza

US President Donald Trump is putting “heavy” pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to end the war in Gaza, two sources close to the ceasefire negotiations have told Sky News.

One US source said: “The US pressure on Israel has begun, and tonight it will be heavy.”

The source, who is not authorised to speak publicly, was referring to the White House dinner on Monday night between Trump and Netanyahu.

A second Middle Eastern diplomatic source agreed that the American pressure on Israel would be intense.

Netanyahu arrived in Washington DC in the early hours of Monday morning and held meetings on Monday with Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Middle East envoy, and Marco Rubio, the secretary of state and national security adviser.

The Israeli prime minister plans to be in Washington until Thursday with meetings on Capitol Hill on Tuesday.

Trump has made clear his desire to bring the Gaza conflict to an end.

However, he has never articulated how a lasting peace, which would satisfy both the Israelis and Palestinians, could be achieved.

His varying comments about ownership of Gaza, moving Palestinians out of the territory and permanent resettlement, have presented a confusing policy.

Situation for Palestinians worse than ever

Over the coming days, we will see the extent to which Trump demands that Netanyahu accepts the current Gaza ceasefire deal, even if it falls short of Israel’s war aims – the elimination of Hamas.

The strategic objective to permanently remove Hamas seems always to have been impossible. Hamas as an entity was the extreme consequence of the Israeli occupation.

The Palestinians’ challenge has not gone away, and the situation for Palestinians now is worse than it has ever been in Gaza and also the West Bank. It is not clear how Trump plans to square that circle.

Trump’s oft-repeated desire to “stop the killing” is sincere. Those close to him often emphasise this. He is also looking to cement his legacy as a peacemaker. He genuinely craves the Nobel Peace Prize.

In this context, the complexities of conflicts – in Ukraine or Gaza – are often of secondary importance to the president.

If Netanyahu can be persuaded to end the war, what would he need?

The hostages back – for sure. That would require agreement from Hamas. They would only agree to this if they have guarantees on Gaza’s future and their own future. More circles to square.

Was White House dinner a key moment?

The Monday night dinner could have been a key moment for the Middle East. Two powerful men in the Blue Room of the White House, deciding the direction of the region.

Will it be seen as the moment the region was remoulded? But to whose benefit?

Trump is a dealmaker with an eye on the prize. But Netanyahu is a political master; they don’t call him “the magician” for nothing.

Trump makes decisions instinctively. He can shift position quickly and often listens to the last person in the room. Right now – that person is Netanyahu.

Gaza is one part of a jigsaw of challenges, which could become opportunities.

Diplomatic normalisation between Israel and the Arab world is a prize for Trump and could genuinely secure him the Nobel Peace Prize.

But without the Gaza piece, the jigsaw is incomplete.