Unexpected contender tiers: From breakouts we saw coming to… how the heck are they doing this?
In the first few weeks of the season, there’s bound to be some chaos. A bad team or two will go on a hot run, and good teams may face some early hurdles. But the expectation is that once you’re about a month and a half into the season, there will be enough of a sample size to gauge a club’s true potential.
Well, we’re at that mark — and there are some surprising squads contending with typical MLB powers.
Six teams — the Rays, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Red Sox and Pirates — are way better than we expected. Are their starts real or not? What’s powering them? And who are the unexpected stars leading their teams to victory?
ESPN MLB experts Alden Gonzalez, Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield break down the unexpected contenders, how they’ve surprised us and their ability to ride this momentum into October.
We knew they’d be good, but not this good
How they’ve surprised us: By bludgeoning teams offensively. The Rays have built a reputation as a plucky franchise that, typically, is sound fundamentally and adept at maximizing matchups and overwhelming opponents with a carousel of dominant pitchers. But this year’s version also leads MLB in several major offensive categories, including home runs. The Rays have finished no better than 10th in the majors in OPS since 2014. This year, they lead there too.
Why it could continue: The Rays play in the sport’s toughest division — the American League East, consistently possess some of the lowest payrolls in the industry and have still won more games than all but two franchises — the Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros — since the start of 2019. Winning is what they do. And this might be the most talented team they’ve ever fielded.
Why they could fade: The Rays already lost Jeffrey Springs for the year to Tommy John surgery, and now Drew Rasmussen will be out until August with a flexor strain. That’s two legitimate top-of-the-rotation starters. And though Tyler Glasnow is on his way back — and the Rays are as good as anyone at developing dominant arms — that’s difficult to overcome.
MVP of their surprising start: What might separate this Rays team from past versions is the presence of a young, budding superstar with the ability to be the best player in the game. That man, of course, is Wander Franco, the incredibly talented shortstop who, after an injury-riddled 2022, is living up to his promise in his age-22 season. Several Rays hitters are probably over-performing at the moment, but Franco has the talent to sustain this. The Rays can go as far as he takes them.
Predicted date of their last meaningful game: Sometime in November, assuming the World Series spills into the second-to-last month of the year again. Forget sample size. The Rays are clearly in the conversation for the best team in the sport — offensively, defensively, on the bases, on the mound. They do everything well. And there’s little reason for it to stop. — Gonzalez
We knew they had breakout potential, but they’ve exceeded expectations
How they’ve surprised us: The Orioles were last season’s big surprise, of course, but it seemed likely that they would take at least a mild step back. The overall trend line pointed up but Baltimore outperformed its run differential by several games in 2022 and leaned heavily on the kind of bullpen performance that isn’t easy to replicate. Then over the winter, the Orioles weren’t aggressive when it came to landing veteran foundational types.
And yet, they have once again sprinted past expectations and now have to be looked at as a legitimate postseason contender. Their players just keep getting better and not just the emergent prospects, but young second-chance veterans such as Jorge Mateo. And that unsustainable bullpen performance? The Orioles relievers have been even better in 2023.
Why it could continue: Other than the stunning performance of rookie reliever Yennier Cano, there aren’t a lot of players who are putting up what look like unsustainable numbers. It’s the opposite, really, as the O’s can hope for better production from key players such as Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez and Ryan Mountcastle. The pitching staff might get in-season jolts from injury returnee hurlers such as Dillon Tate, Mychal Givens and, later on, John Means. The upward trend of the Orioles hasn’t been steep; it’s been gradual and consistent, and there aren’t any real red flags that warn of impending collapse.
Why they could fade: The Orioles might benefit from the new scheduling formula more than any other team in the majors. But while the frequency of their encounters with division foes Tampa Bay, New York, Boston and Toronto is diminished, that’s still the biggest chunk of the schedule. And they still have to jostle with those teams — all legit contenders — for playoff slots. Even in this era of bloated playoff formats, you still can’t squeeze in five teams from the same division. Someone will get left out. As encouraging as the Orioles’ improvement has been, are they really any better than one of those four teams, if they all are healthy-ish and hitting their projections?
MVP of their surprising start: Mateo has been brilliant — hitting for power, driving opponents to distraction on the bases and shining with the glove. This is the version of Mateo we once thought we’d see someday, when he was a touted prospect, and then gave up on ever seeing after he washed out with the San Diego Padres. The Orioles have become a team whose players get better, and no one embodies their improved development processes more than Mateo.
Predicted date of their last meaningful game: Sept. 30. I already touched on the depth of the AL East but the other problem for the Orioles is the AL West, which seems likely to put two teams in the postseason bracket now between the defending champion Astros, the Rangers looking like a newly established power and the Mariners and Angels remaining good enough to make a run. So it’s going to be a smash-mouth derby down the stretch, one that goes into the final days of the season. I think the Orioles will be right there to the end but come up just short. The last day of the regular season is Oct. 1, so I’ll say the last game they play before being eliminated is one day prior. — Doolittle
How they’ve surprised us: By having balance offensively. The Rangers are getting production up and down their lineup, even with Corey Seager spending the past month recovering from a hamstring strain. Nathaniel Lowe and Adolis Garcia are still producing, and Marcus Semien has bounced back. Meanwhile, Ezequiel Duran, Josh Jung and Leody Taveras are each carrying an adjusted OPS above league average, and Jonah Heim, Texas’ 6-foot-4 catcher, is hitting out of his mind.
Why it could continue: The Rangers have been without both Seager and Jacob deGrom all month, and yet they continue to win. Their starting rotation is good, their bullpen is solid and their lineup — at least so far — looks deep. The Astros are more talented, the Mariners are deeper and the Angels have more star power, but if their two best players are healthy and right, the Rangers might have just as good a chance as anyone to take the AL West.
Why they could fade: This should be obvious: The Rangers probably won’t go far if deGrom is not healthy. They took a major risk by signing him to a five-year, $185 million contract over the offseason. Everybody in the industry knew it. The Rangers knew it, too. But they also knew this: When deGrom is healthy, he is the best, most electrifying pitcher in the majors. After a rough debut, deGrom posted a 1.35 ERA through his next five starts. But then he began nursing elbow inflammation that will keep him out at least another couple of weeks. Not even two months in, the Rangers are getting the full Jacob deGrom Experience.
MVP of their surprising start: Rangers starting pitchers finished the 2022 season with a 4.63 ERA, ranking 25th in the major leagues. It was a clear area of need for a team looking to vault itself into contention, as evidenced by the activity that dominated the ensuing offseason. But with deGrom hurt and Andrew Heaney battling through a 5.25 ERA, it has been Nathan Eovaldi — perhaps the most unheralded of their starting-pitcher additions — who has provided a major lift, sporting a 2.70 ERA through his first eight starts.
Predicted date of their last meaningful game: Sept. 22. That might seem harsh for a team already nearing a plus-100 run differential, but there are two things working against the Rangers with regard to the standings: The Astros, Mariners and Angels might hang around all year, and it is totally conceivable for the AL East to produce three playoff teams this year. I still think the Astros are the best team in the AL West, and a division title might end up being Texas’ only path to the postseason. Regardless, the Rangers’ last six series will be against the Blue Jays, Guardians, Red Sox, Angels and Mariners, twice. That’s a brutal way to end the regular season. It’s a stretch of games that will probably make or break their year. — Gonzalez
How they’ve surprised us: They’ve played well despite some key players not performing: Jake McCarthy didn’t hit and got sent down to Triple-A; Madison Bumgarner was so bad that the Diamondbacks decided to eat the rest of his contract and release him; and center fielder Alek Thomas and rookie starter Ryne Nelson have both struggled. Arizona has overcome some shaky pitching by scoring runs, primarily thanks to a league-leading batting average and some unexpected production from the likes of Geraldo Perdomo and Pavin Smith.
Why it could continue: The D-backs have two of the best players in the league in underrated ace Zac Gallen and Rookie of the Year candidate Corbin Carroll. Gallen, who had a scoreless streak of 44⅓ innings last season, reeled off a 28-inning scoreless streak over four straight starts this season. They’ve also held their own against the Dodgers and Padres, going a combined 7-7 against their NL West rivals.
Why they could fade: Is there enough in the rotation behind Gallen and Merrill Kelly? So far, no. Besides Nelson’s slow start, Brandon Pfaadt, the team’s top pitching prospect, got called up and was hammered in his first two starts, allowing 13 runs and six home runs. That could spell trouble for Arizona, as its playoff hopes may reside in the effectiveness of Nelson, Pfaadt and fellow rookie Drey Jameson.
MVP of their surprising start: Gallen. Carroll has been one of the most entertaining players in the majors with his combination of speed and power, but Gallen looks primed to improve upon his 2022 Cy Young finish, when he placed fifth in the voting. His swing-and-miss rate on his curveball has increased from 33% to 44% — no wonder he’s throwing it more than ever. That helps him rack up the strikeouts despite a fastball velocity of 93.5 mph.
Predicted date of their last meaningful game: The National League is likely to include at least one wild-card team with fewer than 90 wins — there were two last season — so that will keep any team around .500 mathematically alive with two weeks to go. Starting with their final series of August, the D-backs will have a road series at Dodger Stadium, plus two separate trips to New York to play the Mets and Yankees — before closing at home against the Astros. I’ll say they get officially eliminated in their finale at Yankee Stadium on Sept. 24. — Schoenfield
All that angst and they’re actually pretty good
How they’ve surprised us: Let’s see here. Last year was viewed as a disaster after they went 78-84, so that angered Red Sox Nation. Xander Bogaerts signed with the Padres, which angered Red Sox Nation. They needed pitching, but their big move was signing Corey Kluber, so that angered Red Sox Nation. They didn’t seem to have a plan at shortstop, which … well, you know. Expectations hadn’t been so low in Boston since the forgettable Butch Hobson years in the early ’90s. So what has happened? The offense has been really good, with Rafael Devers slugging home runs and the outfield trio of Masataka Yoshida, Alex Verdugo and Jarren Duran all with OPS+ figures above 130. The late-game bullpen with closer Kenley Jansen has also been terrific.
Why it could continue: The offense will continue to score. Yoshida has shown why the Red Sox gave him $90 million — and silenced the critics who thought the Red Sox overpaid. Duran has been the big surprise after struggling in 2022 and beginning the season in Triple-A (where he hit .195 in 11 games). His hard-hit rates have been legit, however, and he has also played well in center field. There’s also the chance the offense will get better if Triston Casas can start hitting (he’s at least drawing walks, which is a positive). As for the starting pitching: There’s nowhere to go but up, as the rotation has been among the worst in the majors.
Why they could fade: Yeah, that rotation. The best thing you can say is that Chris Sale, Tanner Houck, Nick Pivetta and Kluber have made all their starts — but each has an ERA over 5.00 (and three of them are over 6.00). Brayan Bello has showcased a great arm but he has a 5.01 ERA. James Paxton made his Red Sox debut Friday, just his second start in the past three seasons, so who knows if he’ll be able to contribute. There’ll be some improvement from at least a couple of those guys, but this still doesn’t have the look or feel of a playoff-caliber rotation.
MVP of their surprising start: Call it a three-way tie between Verdugo, Yoshida and Devers, but the Red Sox made a run after a slow start when Yoshida got hurt. He was phenomenal during a 16-game hitting streak from April 20 to May 7, slashing .438/.479/.750 with 5 home runs, 18 RBIs and 14 runs as the Red Sox went 11-5 in that stretch.
Predicted date of their last meaningful game: The Red Sox finish the season with four games in Baltimore. Will those games matter? I’ll say the first two will, with the Red Sox still battling for a wild card until that final weekend. Alas, they will fall just short as the starting pitching can’t hold up and the bullpen fades just enough. — Schoenfield
Where the heck did this come from?!
How they’ve surprised us: The Pirates raced to the lead in the NL Central on the strength of quality starting pitching, daring running on the basepaths and keeping opponents in the park. They’ve had some surprising starts from veterans such as Andrew McCutchen, Connor Joe and Carlos Santana. And they’ve had real improvement from prospects and young veterans alike, such as Jack Suwinski and Mitch Keller.
Why it could continue: Well, the division may not be that great, but someone is still probably going to have to win 86 to 90 games to take it. The Pirates stashed a lot of early wins, so that’s the first step. They won without getting much from Oneil Cruz, who was injured early, and his eventual return could be a major boost just when they need it.
Why they could fade: Because they already are? After Pittsburgh won on April 29 to go a season-best 12 games over .500 (20-8), they proceeded to lose 11 of 13 games and were outscored 66-18 during those games. It’s one of those matters of perspective. If we told you before the season that the Bucs would be over .500 and leading the division heading into the second week of May, you’d be shocked. If we told you what happened after that, you’d probably say something like, “Well, that figures.” That’s still where this team is at in the rebuilding process.
MVP of their surprising start: Keller has been stellar and looks like he’s on the verge of establishing himself as a legit front-of-the-rotation starter. I feel like he was pretty good last year, too, but we missed it because the Pirates were so bad overall and his career record (12-29, 5.00 ERA) was still pretty ugly. But Keller is showing real signs of improvement this season, with more strikeouts, fewer walks and vastly improved consistency.
Predicted date of their last meaningful game: Sept. 20. If the Pirates can stay on track to make a run at .500, they should be within a stone’s throw of NL Central contention up to and a little beyond Labor Day. Right now, my simulations have the Pirates landing at around 79 wins, with the Milwaukee Brewers taking the division with around 87 wins. That gap keeps Pirates fans engaged into the third week of September, where they can say, “Hey, one hot streak and you never know.” That would make this a fine building-block season for a club looking to turn the corner soon. The Pirates have a three-game set at Wrigley Field late in the season, around the time when I could see them being eliminated, so I’ll say the middle game of that series will be it. — Doolittle
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Chris Low, ESPN Senior Writer
Tennessee‘s Nico Iamaleava has been cleared medically to play Saturday against Georgia and is set to return as the Vols’ starting quarterback, sources told ESPN.
Iamaleava, a redshirt freshman, missed the second half of the 33-14 win over Mississippi State last week after suffering a blow to the head. He was listed as questionable earlier this week on the SEC availability report but has been removed in the latest report.
Iamaleava practiced this week, including team periods, and there was optimism among the staff that he was trending in the right direction and would be able to play. But the final call was made by medical personnel. Iamaleava was examined by doctors for what sources told ESPN were concussion-like symptoms after leaving the Mississippi State game. He did not return to the sideline for the second half.
Tennessee coach Josh Heupel said on Monday that he felt like Iamaleava would be in “great shape for Saturday” and noted that Iamaleava was with the team earlier Monday morning for meetings and team activities. The Vols’ first full-scale practice was Tuesday.
Iamaleava was having his most productive outing against an SEC team this season before leaving the game against Mississippi State. He completed 8 of 13 passes for 174 yards, no interceptions and a pair of touchdowns as Tennessee built a 20-7 halftime lead. In Iamaleava’s previous five SEC games, he had accounted for three touchdowns and turned it over five times. He was also sacked 15 times in those five games.
Redshirt senior Gaston Moore filled in for Iamaleava in the second half last week and finished 5-of-8 for 38 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions.
Getting Iamaleava back for the Georgia game is big news for Tennessee, which is right in the middle of the SEC championship race and College Football Playoff picture.
Receiver Dont’e Thornton (hand) has also been given the green light to play for Tennessee after earlier being listed as questionable.
Week 12 is here as we take a look at an SEC matchup that has College Football Playoff implications, learn about three of the nation’s top passers who all played under the same coach and see what’s going on in the Big 12.
No. 7 Tennessee will visit Sanford Stadium as it takes on conference opponent No. 12 Georgia on Saturday night. With so much at stake, what can each team improve on ahead of this SEC showdown?
The Big 12 has six teams in the hunt for a spot in the conference title game. With the final CFP rankings coming out in less than a month, what scenario looks most realistic for the conference in terms of how many of its teams could make the 12-team field?
Our college football experts preview big games and storylines ahead of the Week 12 slate.
Jump to a section:
Tennessee-Georgia | The coach behind three top QB passers
What’s going on in the Big 12 | Quotes of the Week
What has each team done well in conference play? What improvements can be made?
It has been a historic (and dominant) season for Tennessee’s defense, which has yet to give up more than 19 points in any of its nine games. Against SEC competition, the Volunteers lead the conference in scoring defense, giving up 16.7 points per game, and also lead the way in third-down defense and red zone defense. In other words, they’ve given up very little of anything on defense and are buoyed by a line that’s both talented and deep. Tennessee plays a ton of players up front and has been especially good at forcing key turnovers. In 23 trips inside its own 20-yard line, the Vols have forced six turnovers.
The reality is that Tennessee has played to its defense for much of this season out of necessity. The offense has lacked consistency and struggled to generate explosive plays, particularly in the passing game. It’s not all on redshirt freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava, either. Iamaleava has thrown only five touchdown passes in six SEC games, and the Vols are tied for 10th with an average of 7.5 yards per completion. Iamaleava, who sustained a head injury in a win over Mississippi State last week, has been the victim of poor pass protection at times, and his receivers have dropped some costly passes. Iamaleava has also been shaky when it comes to overthrowing receivers and occasionally holding onto the ball too long.
The bright spot on offense for Tennessee has been running back Dylan Sampson, who has a school-record 20 rushing touchdowns. He has been a constant for the Vols on offense and has an SEC-leading 772 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns in conference play. As good as he has been, the Vols are probably going to need more from their passing game to win in Athens. — Chris Low
The Bulldogs didn’t do much of anything well in last week’s 28-10 loss at Ole Miss, which was the first time in a long time that Kirby Smart’s team was manhandled on the lines of scrimmage.
The good news for Georgia: It’s heading home to Sanford Stadium for the first time in more than a month. Georgia hasn’t dropped back-to-back games in the regular season since 2016, Smart’s first season, and it has bounced back after each of its past eight losses. The Bulldogs have won seven of their past eight games against the Volunteers.
For all of quarterback Carson Beck‘s turnovers, Georgia’s problems on offense probably start up front. The offensive line hasn’t done a good job of protecting him, and the Bulldogs’ lack of a potent running game has prevented them from effectively utilizing play-action passes. Their banged-up offensive line is going to face another formidable defensive front Saturday. Georgia has 27 dropped passes, fourth most in the FBS, according to TruMedia, so its receivers need to become more reliable as well. — Mark Schlabach
The coach behind three of college football’s top passers
Miami‘s Cam Ward, Washington State‘s John Mateer and North Texas‘ Chandler Morris are three of the top five quarterbacks in total offense this season in FBS. All three have the same head coach to thank for where they are today.
North Texas coach Eric Morris coached Ward at Incarnate Word and Washington State, recruited Mateer to the Cougars and signed Morris out of the transfer portal this offseason. All three hailed from Texas and are putting up big numbers this season. Morris, a Mike Leach disciple, knows what he’s looking for when it comes to QBs.
For each one, the journey was different. Ward was a zero-star recruit out of West Columbia, Texas, played in a wing-T offense and had no scholarship offers. But he showed up to Incarnate Word’s camp in 2019 and impressed with his quick release and accuracy. Morris saw appealing traits, too, in Ward’s multisport talents.
“He was such a good basketball player,” Morris said. “He was a bigger guy who could really handle the ball and move with ease. He had a twitch and quickness about him that was almost Mahomes-esque, where he’s not fast but you see him get out of the pocket and scramble and he’s nifty on his feet. He saw the floor great and shot the basketball great.
“It might be easier at an FCS school to take that risk, but it was something we were really confident in.”
Ward came in with extreme confidence, telling coaches he’d win the starting job over their returning all-conference player (and he did). He followed Morris to Pullman, Washington, out of loyalty to the coach who believed in him. Now he’s playing on a big stage, chasing a College Football Playoff bid and a Heisman Trophy with the No. 9 Hurricanes.
“It’s been fun to watch him flourish and get rewarded for being patient all these years,” Morris said.
When Morris left UIW to become Washington State’s offensive coordinator in 2022, he brought Ward but needed another QB. On his first recruiting trip in Texas, he stopped by to check out Mateer. The two-star recruit had a prolific senior season at Little Elm High School but was committed to Central Arkansas. Morris didn’t understand what FBS programs were missing and convinced Mateer to flip.
After two seasons behind Ward, Mateer has emerged as one of the top dual-threat QBs in college football with 2,332 passing yards, 805 rushing yards (excluding sacks) and 33 total TDs.
“I think the sky’s the limit,” Ward said. “He’s just so dang hard to tackle in the open field. Just a kid that loves ball and was under-recruited. The tide’s turned and he ends up being a big-time ballplayer.”
Chandler Morris was not an under-the-radar talent, but he’s having his best season yet at North Texas. He began his career at Oklahoma, won the starting job at TCU in 2022, sustained a knee injury in its season opener and then watched Max Duggan lead the Horned Frogs to the national title game.
Morris had a six-game stint as TCU’s starter last season before injuring the same knee. At UNT, he’s leading the nation’s No. 3 passing offense with 3,244 total yards and 30 TDs. Like Ward and Mateer, he processes information quickly, makes plays with his feet and throws outside the pocket with accuracy. If you ask Eric Morris, those traits are a must in today’s game. When paired with his version of Air Raid ball, you get big-time results.
“It’s been fun to see him get his swagger back,” Morris said.
Eric Morris points to Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels. The QBs thriving at the highest level are becoming unstoppable by creating plays out of the pocket. And so are his guys.
“Everybody obviously watches Cam and the magic he makes,” Morris said, “but I think all three of ’em can make plays when it’s not a perfect play call. There are a bunch of really good pure passers nowadays, but that’s what sets them all apart.” — Max Olson
What’s going on in the Big 12?
Two-thirds of the way through the Big 12 schedule, six teams are still in the hunt for a title-game appearance: BYU (6-0), Colorado (5-1), Arizona State, Iowa State, Kansas State and West Virginia, all of which are 4-2. There are too many variables to discuss all the scenarios, but the conference has a straightforward tiebreaker policy.
It’s possible to come up with scenarios in which the Big 12 could get two bids, one bid or shut out altogether.
For the Big 12 to get two bids, BYU probably would have to finish 12-0, then lose a close game in the championship to a two-loss team (Colorado, Iowa State or Kansas State). A 12-1 BYU team would get consideration, but it would become a question of how far it would fall and what else happens around the country.
The most likely scenario is the Big 12 will get one team in: whichever one wins the conference title game. If BYU wins out, it will have a bye, but if it slips up even once — or if another team wins the title — Boise State might be in position to get a first-round bye, assuming the Broncos win out.
The doomsday scenario in the Big 12 is if the conference champion has two or three losses and Army and Boise State win out. If that’s the case, there is a good possibility both of those schools would be ranked ahead of the Big 12 champion and the Big 12 would be left out. — Kyle Bonagura
Quotes of the Week
“They’re stubborn, man. They’re physical. He is an elite runner. The runs they run are sometimes nontraditional. They run some runs that other people don’t run because of the space in the box. He’s very patient. He hits small creases. He’s hard to tackle. How many touchdowns has he got in the SEC? Twenty-something? That’s crazy. In the SEC? The SEC is the hardest league in the world to run the ball in on because they’ve got the most size defensive lineman, and he continues to do it at a crazy pace to me.” — Kirby Smart on Volunteers tailback Dylan Sampson.
“I never try to take a step back. I try to take a step up. I’m always putting my head out the window. I’m trying to see around the corner, not trying to see straight ahead. It’s normalcy for everybody to see what’s in front of them. I’m trying to see around the corner. That’s the relationship I have with the Lord, to help me see around the corner so I can help navigate these young men as well as the women that’s attached to our program to a better way and a better life. So I don’t get caught up in the ‘You go, boys!’ or the ‘You ain’t nothing.’ You know, if I would’ve listened to you guys earlier, I’ve gotta listen to you now. So I might as well just put some headphones on and block you out. Notice I don’t have a sponsor for headphones, but that would’ve been a good placement for a sponsor.” — Deion Sanders when asked if he takes time to step back and appreciate the magnitude of Colorado’s turnaround.
“I hope anyone who has ambitions about playing in the National Football League, let’s see what you’ve got against Clemson. Let’s see you play your best game here. If you weren’t focused for Virginia, which I can’t imagine you weren’t — and I’m not saying anybody was not focused — but if they didn’t get your focus, I imagine Clemson will get your focus when you put the tape on.” — Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi on whether playing Clemson gets the attention of his players.
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