2023 MLB draft tracker: Skenes goes No. 1; Results, analysis for every first-round pick
The first round of the 2023 MLB draft is over, with the Pittsburgh Pirates selecting LSU star Paul Skenes with the No. 1 overall pick.
The Washington Nationals followed by drafting Skenes’ teammate, Dylan Crews, with the No. 2 pick, making them the first pair of teammates to go 1-2 in MLB draft history. The Detroit Tigers took Max Clark with the third pick, the Texas Rangers followed with Wyatt Langford, and the Minnesota Twins rounded out the top five by selecting Walker Jenkins.
What will the following rounds bring?
Follow along for pick-by-pick coverage, with ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield and Dan Mullen breaking down everything you need to know about who your favorite team took in the first round as the picks come off the board.
Mock Draft 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0
Rankings: Top 300 prospects | Guide for all 30 teams
Who is Skenes? According to ESPN MLB draft expert Kiley McDaniel, Skenes is the best pitching prospect in the draft since Gerrit Cole went No. 1 overall in 2011. Like his college teammate Crews, Skenes was a dominant force on LSU’s national championship team as the right-hander went 12-2 with a 1.69 ERA and struck out an eye-popping 209 batters over 122⅔ innings during his lone season in Baton Rouge after transferring from Air Force.
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The highlight-reel plays top pick Paul Skenes is taking to Pittsburgh
Check out the highlights that helped make Paul Skenes the top overall pick in the 2023 MLB draft.
Why the Pirates took him here: While there are three clear top prospects in this class, Skenes is quite possibly the best pitching prospect in the draft since Stephen Strasburg or Gerrit Cole. In his one season at LSU, he absolutely dominated the best competition in the top conference in the country, handling the pressure that comes with pitching in the SEC with a presence that set him apart. The Pirates have shown signs of turning things around at the major league level and Skenes is about as major league-ready as a pitcher can be on draft day. — Mullen
Who is Crews? The most well-known player in this draft, Crews hit his way into college baseball lore in winning the 2023 Golden Spikes Award and becoming the first player to win back-to-back SEC Player of the Year awards. Though he is more likely to end up in a corner outfield spot than remaining in center, there is no doubt his bat will play anywhere after Crews hit .426 with 17 home runs and a 1.280 OPS in 71 games for the College World Series champion Tigers this season.
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The plays that helped Dylan Crews become a National
Check out the highlights that helped make Dylan Crews the second overall pick by the Nationals.
Why the Nationals took him here: For the first time ever, a pair of teammates have gone 1-2 in the MLB draft. Maybe the Nationals would have preferred Skenes, given that the strength of their farm system lies in its position players, but Crews dominated the best conference in the country and ranks as one of the best hitting prospects to come out of the college ranks in a long time. His combination of the hit tool, plate discipline and power indicates he should rise rapidly to the majors. — Schoenfield
3. Detroit Tigers: Max Clark, OF, Franklin Community (Ind.) HS
Who is Clark? The best prospect from the state of Indiana since Bryan Bullington went No. 1 overall (out of Indiana University) in 2002, Clark won 2023 Gatorade National Player of the Year honors. Clark has a sweet left-handed swing that produces plus contact and bat speed with the only question being just how much power it will lead to in the pros given he has a smaller frame than the other elite hitters at the top of this draft.
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The plays that helped make Max Clark a Detroit Tiger
Check out the highlights Max Clark will be taking to Detroit after being selected third overall by the Tigers.
Why the Tigers took him here: We have our first true surprise of the night. Going into this draft, the talk was all about the three college stars who have separated themselves at the top of the class — yet the Tigers went with a high school hitter, and not Langford, with the No. 3 pick. But don’t let that fool you into thinking Clark is a stretch here. He would have been in the running for the No. 1 overall pick in many recent drafts if not for the SEC stars ahead of him this year. Clark has electric speed and could develop plus power as he develops, drawing comparisons to Corbin Carroll and Johnny Damon. — Mullen
4. Texas Rangers: Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida
Who is Langford? A slugger who would be the clear No. 1 in many recent MLB drafts, Langford has been overshadowed a bit this season by the LSU combo of Crews and Skenes. The Florida slugger hit .373 with 21 home runs and a 1.282 OPS for the national runners-up this season, showing why scouts have been flocking to see him since a breakout sophomore campaign with the Gators in 2022 followed by a strong performance with Team USA last summer.
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The highlight-reel plays Wyatt Langford is taking to Texas
Check out some of the plays that helped make Wyatt Langford a Texas Ranger.
Why the Rangers took him here: The Rangers have to be thrilled to see an advanced college hitter like Langford fall to them with the fourth pick — a player who had more extra-base power in the SEC this past season than Crews. Langford is somewhat limited defensively, but the Rangers can dream on soon adding him and prospect Evan Carter to an outfield that already includes All-Star Adolis Garcia and 2023 breakout performer Leody Taveras. — Schoenfield
5. Minnesota Twins: Walker Jenkins, OF, South Brunswick (N.C.) HS
Who is Jenkins? Now the consensus top high school player in this draft, Jenkins packs high-end raw power into a compact swing that invokes comparisons to former MLB All-Star J.D. Drew. He won his second straight Gatorade state player of the year award this spring, batting .417 with an incredible .632 on-base percentage and .633 slugging percentage in 95 plate appearances while showing scouts he was fully recovered from a broken hamate bone that slowed him a bit in the summer of 2022.
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The top highlights the Twins can expect from Walker Jenkins
Check out the highlights that have helped the Twins select Walker Jenkins with the fifth pick in the 2023 MLB draft.
Why the Twins took him here: This was a five-player draft and the Twins get one of those players here before the talent drops off significantly. Jenkins has 30-home run power and the hit tool to project as a future .280 hitter in the majors, and he could stay in center field. In most drafts, that type of player is thick in the running for the No. 1 overall pick, so the Twins have to be ecstatic to get that kind of talent to round out the top five. — Mullen
6. Oakland Athletics: Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon
Who is Wilson? The son of former Pirates shortstop Jack, who also coached him in high school, Wilson is a polished defensive shortstop who makes contact at an elite rate. Wilson posted a .361 batting average over his three seasons at Grand Canyon, including a .412 mark with just five strikeouts in 192 at-bats this spring.
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The plays that helped make Jacob Wilson an Athletic
Check out the highlights that have helped make Jacob Wilson a top-10 pick by the Oakland Athletics.
Why the A’s took him here: This was always going to be the part of the draft where it started getting unpredictable, and the A’s pull out a mild surprise here in taking Wilson — although you have to love the big league bloodlines and the elite contact ability. The A’s will have to hope the power will develop, but even if it doesn’t, perhaps there is a Nico Hoerner-type player here. Plus, while teams rarely draft for need, there is no doubt the A’s need a shortstop, as Nick Allen has struggled at the plate. — Schoenfield
7. Cincinnati Reds: Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest
Who is Lowder? The ace of a Wake Forest squad that earned the No. 1 overall seed in this season’s NCAA tournament, Lowder joined former Virginia ace (and Mariners draft pick) Danny Hultzen as the only back-to-back ACC Pitchers of the Year. Using a fastball that hovers in the mid-90s and a strong changeup to keep hitters guessing, Lowder went a perfect 15-0 with a 1.87 ERA and 143 strikeouts in 120⅓ innings for the Demon Deacons this spring.
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The highlights the Reds can expect from Rhett Lowder
Watch the highlights that helped the Reds select Rhett Lowder with the seventh pick in the 2023 MLB draft.
Why the Reds took him here: Lowder might be the safest starting pitcher in this draft as a polished big-school starter with three above-average pitches. The big question here is if he has enough stuff to be a top-of-the-rotation ace or if he ultimately settles in as more of a No. 3 or No. 4 starter. But no matter Lowder’s ceiling, he should get to the majors quickly and that has become even more important since Cincinnati has vaulted itself into contention this season. — Mullen
8. Kansas City Royals: Blake Mitchell, C, Sinton (Texas) HS
Who is Mitchell? A rifle-armed catcher with an LSU commit, Mitchell has hit 97 mph on the mound, but his future is behind the plate where he’s viewed as the top high school catcher in the class. Some teams viewed him as a top-10 overall talent while others shied away from his age (almost 19) and the general risk associated with prep catchers. His defensive abilities are his calling card, but he also has plus power, although he’ll have to improve the swing-and-miss.
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The highlights the Royals can expect from Blake Mitchell
Check out the highlights that enticed the Royals take Blake Mitchell with the eighth pick in the 2023 MLB draft.
Why the Royals took him here: Hey, Salvador Perez isn’t going to play forever and has continued to morph more into a DH anyway. This is a big roll of the dice for the Royals, as prep catchers taken in the first round have a checkered draft history. Mitchell is the first prep catcher to go in the top 10 since the Marlins drafted Kyle Skipworth sixth overall in 2008 (he never reached the majors). The Royals also look years away from being any good, so they can afford to let Mitchell develop and hope he grows into his power potential and turns into a strong two-way performer. — Schoenfield
9. Colorado Rockies: Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee
Who is Dollander? Dollander entered the 2023 season as the top pitching prospect in this draft before being passed by fellow SEC ace Skenes. The Tennessee right-hander’s ERA jumped more than two full runs to 4.75 this season after he went 10-0 with a 2.39 ERA while winning SEC Pitcher of the Year in 2022. At his best, he has a mid-90s fastball and a plus slider that helped make him a top-10 pick in this draft.
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The plays that helped make Chase Dollander a top-10 pick
Check out the highlights that helped Chase Dollander get selected by the Rockies in the first round.
Why the Rockies took him here: Let’s not forget, Dollander was the No. 1 pitching prospect in this draft class entering the season with a fastball that had scouts buzzing — things just didn’t go quite as planned from there. But that’s what makes the upside of this pick unusually high for a college pitcher.
If the Rockies can fix whatever was wrong with Dollander’s delivery this spring and bring out the 2022 version of the Tennessee ace, they’re getting a player who would have been off the board far before No. 9 tonight. Of course, the risk here is also greater, so this pick is a bet on Dollander and a bet on Colorado’s development department being able to bring out the best in him. — Mullen
10. Miami Marlins: Noble Meyer, RHP, Jesuit (Ore.) HS
Who is Meyer? The clear top prep pitching prospect in this draft, Meyer hails from the same Portland high school that produced 2020 first-rounder Mick Abel (No. 15 overall to the Phillies). Standing 6-foot-5 with a fastball that gets into the high 90s coupled with a strong breaking ball, Meyer has ace upside as a pro.
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The highlights the Marlins can expect from Noble Meyer
Watch the highlights that helped the Marlins select Noble Meyer with the 10th pick in the 2023 MLB draft.
Why the Marlins took him here: He’s a huge upside right-hander with a triple-digit fastball and one of the best names in the draft. Start your preparation, Marlins marketing people! The Marlins have used just one of their past seven first-round picks on a pitcher and considering some of their misses on first-round position players, maybe this selection makes a lot of sense — especially if their 2026 rotations lines up as Eury Perez, Sandy Alcantara, Braxton Garrett and Meyer (and perhaps former first-rounder Max Meyer, as well). — Schoenfield
11. Los Angeles Angels: Nolan Schanuel, 1B, Florida Atlantic
Who is Schanuel? The powerful left-handed-hitting first baseman put up eye-popping numbers this spring, finishing second nationally in batting average (.447), first in on-base percentage (.615) and second in slugging percentage (.868). That combination of hit tool, patience at the plate and power had scouts flocking to FAU games as the season played out and has now made him the highest draft pick in Owls history.
Why the Angels took him here: The Angels strategy has been very clear at the top of recent drafts: Take guys who can get to the majors as quickly as possible, like 2022 first-rounder Zach Neto, who has already reached the majors. While Schanuel might not be ready to move quite that fast, he certainly fits the mold as a polished college hitter whose tools are more present than something to dream on for years down the road. While he isn’t going to match those incredible college numbers as a pro, it’s impossible to look past what he did at FAU this spring and he has the hit tool to back them up no matter the competition. — Mullen
Who is Troy? Troy has risen up draft boards after a strong summer in 2022, when he was named best pro prospect in the Cape Cod League. He followed it up by showing an uptick in power this spring at Stanford, belting 17 home runs (which matched his total from his two previous seasons with the Cardinal combined). While Troy played third base this season, the 5-foot-10, 197-pound infielder’s pro future could be at second base.
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The highlights the D-backs can expect from Tommy Troy
Watch the highlights that lured the Diamondbacks to take Tommy Troy with the 12th pick in the 2023 MLB draft.
Why the Diamondbacks took him here: Because he can hit. Troy hit .394/.478/.699 for Stanford and showed he can handle high velocity up in the strike zone, a strong marker given the widespread major league philosophy of attacking hitters with high heat. He also offers some positional flexibility with the arm to handle third base and the range to play second base. Currently in first place in the NL West, the Diamondbacks are entering what they view as a multiyear contention window and Troy projects as a player who can reach the majors rather fast (and perhaps plug a hole at third base that has been a revolving door in Arizona in recent seasons). — Schoenfield
13. Chicago Cubs: Matt Shaw, 2B, Maryland
Who is Shaw? The 2023 Brooks Wallace Award winner as college baseball’s best shortstop, Shaw is most likely ticketed for second base in the pros. No matter his future position, it is Shaw’s powerful bat that has scouts excited as he blasted 46 home runs in 122 games over his final two years at Maryland.
Why the Cubs took him here: While Shaw’s power is his standout tool, he is a pure hitter who can do a little bit of everything on the diamond. At the plate, he hits the ball hard to all fields, rarely strikes out, draws walks and can even run — as his 18 stolen bases this season show. Defensively, second base seems like the most likely ultimate destination for Shaw, but he has shown the ability to play shortstop, third base and outfield during his time at Maryland. That gives the Cubs plenty of options as he advances through their system. — Mullen
Who is Teel? A three-year starter at Virginia, Teel was named 2023 ACC Player of the Year on the strength of a .407/.475/.655 slash line. A left-handed-hitting catcher, his draft stock took off this season as continued defensive improvement behind the plate solidified his chances of sticking at the position professionally.
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Kyle Teel’s highlights that helped land him in Boston
Check out the highlights that helped Kyle Teel become the Red Sox’s first-round pick in 2023.
Why the Red Sox took him here: The Red Sox don’t really have a long-term solution at catcher as current starter Connor Wong possesses more of a backup’s skill set — and Teel’s hitting ability means he can move quickly if the defense develops. He is a left-handed hitter with an ideal swing for Fenway Park and good contact skills despite a violent swing, as well as a plus throwing arm. At the minimum, this looks like a pretty safe pick since Teel projects as a high probability major leaguer. — Schoenfield
Who is Gonzalez? Gonzalez burst onto the scene in 2021, when he won national freshman of the year honors by posting a .355/.443/.561 slash line on an Ole Miss team that made a surprising run to its first College World Series title. Though his numbers have dipped slightly since that breakout first year in Oxford, toolsy, left-handed-hitting shortstops who have proved themselves in college are very rare in the draft as this type of player is often selected and signed directly out of high school.
Why the White Sox took him here: In Gonzalez, the White Sox are getting a player who was in the conversation to sneak into the top five picks in this draft with the No. 15 pick. While the shortstop hasn’t quite followed up on the promise of his breakout freshman year at Ole Miss, he is one of the safest hitters in this draft with the tools to grow into a star, too. Chicago is getting a steady hitter with strong contact rates who doesn’t chase pitches out of the zone. He could ultimately hit 20-25 home runs in the majors — and should get to the majors pretty quickly. — Mullen
16. San Francisco Giants: Bryce Eldridge, 1B/RHP, James Madison (Va.) HS
Who is Eldridge? The top two-way prospect in this class, the 6-foot-7 Eldridge wants to play both ways in pro ball, though his draft stock is slightly higher as a hitter than on the mound. At the plate, he combines big-time power with strong contact rates — especially for a young hitter at his height — while on the mound, he complements a mid-90s fastball with a strong slider.
Why the Giants took him here: This is pretty interesting. For the second draft in a row, the Giants announce their first-round pick as a two-way player, after taking UConn P/1B Reggie Crawford 30th last year. Eldridge is a hulking young hitter who says he modeled his swing after Bryce Harper‘s — and he brings that type of power potential. The Giants have missed on some college hitters in recent years (Hunter Bishop, Joey Bart), so they’re going for more upside here in taking a high school player in the first round for the first time since Heliot Ramos in 2017. — Schoenfield
17. Baltimore Orioles: Enrique Bradfield Jr., CF, Vanderbilt
Who is Bradfield Jr.? Quite possibly the most electric player in this draft class, Bradfield stole 130 bases in 197 games over his three seasons at Vanderbilt. While his elite speed and strong center-field defense earned Bradfield a place in the first round, his power will be the biggest question mark as a pro.
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The top highlights the Orioles can expect from Enrique Bradfield Jr.
Check out the highlights that helped the Orioles select Enrique Bradfield Jr. with the 17th pick in the 2023 MLB draft.
Why the Orioles took him here: The Orioles’ early draft strategy in turning around their franchise has been relatively simple: take hitters, take hitters, take hitters. And they continue that trend by taking Bradfield Jr. with their first pick tonight. Bradfield is a different kind of player than Jackson Holliday or Adley Rutschman though, with a game built around game-changing speed.
He did show the potential for some future pop when he slugged just under .500 (.498) as a sophomore at Vanderbilt and nobody in baseball is better at unlocking the best version of hitters than the O’s right now. If Baltimore can add just a little more thump at the plate to go with their new outfielder’s speed, look out. — Mullen
18. Milwaukee Brewers: Brock Wilken, 3B, Wake Forest
Who is Wilken? Wilken set the ACC record for career home runs by bashing 71 during his time at Wake Forest including 31 this spring. A former Cape Cod League MVP, Wilken will have a chance to stick at third base defensively but could end up eventually moving to first base — but with as much raw power as anyone in this draft, his bat should play at either position.
Why the Brewers took him here: Well, for starters, the Brewers love college hitters — this is the fifth time in a row they’ve used a first-round pick on one. Oh, they’re also last in the NL in runs scored so this pick fits an organizational need. They usually go for the more polished type, but Wilken had the second-highest isolated power figure in Division I, so there’s big-time home run potential if he can make enough contact — and he improved dramatically in that area this season for Wake Forest with 69 walks and 58 strikeouts. — Schoenfield
19. Tampa Bay Rays: Brayden Taylor, 3B, TCU
Who is Taylor? The first TCU position player to go in the first round of the MLB draft, Taylor’s eventual fit could be at either second or third base. His calling card is a left-handed swing that produces hard contact to all fields which helped him post an OPS over 1.000 in each of his seasons with the Horned Frogs and makes him one of the safest picks in this draft.
Why the Rays took him here: It’s a run of college bats! Eight of the past nine picks have been college hitters and it’s actually a little surprising that Taylor fell to the Rays at the back of that group. Taylor’s power jump — from 12 home runs as a sophomore to 23 as a junior — catapulted him into the first round and his approach is solid enough that he didn’t sacrifice much batting average to get to that newfound pop, instead just barreling baseball after baseball. Hitters like this are exactly who the Rays excel at getting the most out of and Taylor could be the next in a long line of Tampa Bay hitters who opposing pitchers dread facing. — Mullen
20. Toronto Blue Jays: Arjun Nimmala, SS, Strawberry Crest (Fla.) HS
Who is Nimmala? Young for his class as he is still 17 years old on draft day and with a unique background featuring time playing cricket before he began focusing on baseball, Nimmala might have the most unusual path to this year’s first round. While there are questions about his hit tool, Nimmala’s tools have drawn comparisons to Carlos Correa and Javier Baez from scouts.
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The top highlights the Blue Jays can expect from Arjun Nimmala
Watch the highlights that helped the Blue Jays select Arjun Nimmala with the 20th pick in the 2023 MLB draft.
Why the Blue Jays took him here: Finally, one of the high school shortstops goes — and it’s a player with ridiculous tools. Kiley says there’s 30-homer potential here and a possibility that he even develops into the best player from this draft, whether as a shortstop or a power-hitting third baseman. But there is also enormous risk and a range of outcomes given the concern over his hit tool. Still, his background makes him one of the most interesting prospects in the draft to follow in coming seasons. — Schoenfield
Who is Davis? A power-hitting outfielder with the physique to match, Davis hit .362 with 21 home runs and had more walks than strikeouts for the Wildcats, grading highest for his raw power and throwing arm. His contact ability has been questioned in the past, but he did improve in that regard in 2023. He played left field for Arizona despite above-average speed and that strong arm, so he projects as a corner outfielder in the pros.
Why the Cardinals took him here: Power has never been a question for Davis, and he did a better job of getting to it in games while limiting the swing-and-miss issues that have previously plagued him, cutting his strikeout total from 66 in 2022 to 40 this past season. While his future might be in right field, the Cardinals are likely to at least give him a chance to stick in center field — especially given St. Louis’ glut of corner types throughout the system. — Mullen
22. Seattle Mariners: Colt Emerson, SS, Glenn (Ohio) HS
Who is Emerson? The first high school position drafted in the first three rounds from Ohio since Derek Dietrich in 2007, Emerson was the third baseman on the Team USA squad that won the 18-and-under World Cup last September. He was also an all-state wide receiver as a junior before giving up football his senior season to focus on baseball. A left-handed hitter, scouts love his swing and project him as a strong contact hitter, with some believing he can stick at shortstop and others thinking he ends up at third base.
Why the Mariners took him here: The Mariners drafted shortstop Cole Young in this range last season, and that pick has worked out so far, as Young is a top-100 overall prospect with a strong showing so far in the minors. Emerson is a similar player and after trading away their top middle infield prospects last year in the Luis Castillo trade, the Mariners are now restocked. Maybe Young and Emerson turn into their future double-play combination. — Schoenfield
23. Cleveland Guardians: Ralphy Velazquez, C, Huntington Beach (Calif.) HS
Who is Velazquez? A left-handed hitter who had a decorated high school career, Velazquez is a bat-first catcher with an emphasis on “bat” because there are a lot of doubts about whether he can remain behind the plate. His speed probably limits him to first base if he does have to change positions.
Why the Guardians took him here: There is no question about Velazquez’s hitting ability, which ranks among the best of any high school player in this draft, and that’s what the Guardians are betting on here. If Velazquez can develop enough defensively to stay behind the plate, this pick could look like a steal as he makes his way toward Cleveland. If not, the Guardians can still feel good about getting one of the most powerful bats in this draft this close to the back of Round 1. — Mullen
24. Atlanta Braves: Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Florida
Who is Waldrep? While many pitchers taken this early in the draft are known for their velocity, it’s a devastating split-change that comes to hitters at 85-89 mph and drops sharply just before it gets to home plate that has Waldrep going this high. Although his overall ERA this season was an underwhelming 4.16, look no further than his postseason performance to see why he’s so highly regarded. The Florida right-hander struck out 12 batters against UConn in the regional round, followed by 13 against South Carolina over eight scoreless super regional innings, and then K’d 12 Oral Roberts batters over six innings at the College World Series.
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The top highlights the Braves can expect from Hurston Waldrep
Watch the highlights that helped the Braves select Hurston Waldrep with the 24th pick in the 2023 MLB draft.
Why the Braves took him here: Because they’ve been pretty good in recent years in drafting college pitchers and getting them quickly to the majors (see 2023 All-Stars Spencer Strider and Bryce Elder). From a stuff standpoint, Waldrep is more Strider than Elder, which speaks to the upside here — besides the splitter, he also hits 99 mph with the fastball. He fanned 156 batters in 101 2/3 innings for the Gators and while the control has to improve, the Braves’ track record makes this an intriguing selection. — Schoenfield
25. San Diego Padres: Dillon Head, CF, Homewood Flossmoor (Ill.) HS
Who is Head? He’s an 80-grade runner who also has a plus throwing arm to go with his blazing speed. While there is big-time athleticism here and the ability to spray the ball in the gaps, he hasn’t shown much power yet and faced weak high school competition playing in the Chicago area.
Why the Padres took him here: Any conversation about Head’s game has to start with his speed, which earns an 80 grade — the highest possible — from scouts and translates into potentially elite defense in center field. That kind of elite tool is exactly what GM A.J. Preller and the Padres love to bet on in the draft. Head isn’t just an athlete playing baseball either, with a hit tool worthy of this first-round investment. The big question is his power. If Head can grow into a 12-15 home run hitter, he could be a star — but if he doesn’t, it will greatly limit his upside as a pro. — Mullen
26. New York Yankees: George Lombard Jr., SS, Gulliver Prep (Fla.) HS
Who is Lombard? The son of a former big leaguer who played six seasons in the majors and is currently the bench coach for the Tigers, George Jr. is – no surprise – a fundamentally sound player with good baseball instincts. A 6-foot-3 right-handed hitter, he’s not a lock to remain at shortstop, but scouts love his makeup and he just turned 18 in June.
Why the Yankees took him: Have you seen Josh Donaldson‘s batting average? There are across-the-board tools here and given the recent success of sons of major leaguers, the Yankees are betting on that working for Lombard as well. Interestingly, he didn’t devote himself fully to baseball in high school — he also played soccer — so there might be untapped potential to go with the strong fundamentals. — Schoenfield
Who is Miller? A longtime member of various Team USA youth teams, Miller has drawn comparisons to Donaldson since he was 15. He’s viewed as one of the most advanced prep bats in the draft, with bat speed, plus power from the right side and a strong understanding of the strike zone. Two things that may have led some teams to pass on him: He’s already 19, so models that favor youth worked against him, and he missed most of the spring with a broken hamate bone, although he did return for pre-draft workouts.
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The top highlights the Phillies can expect from Aidan Miller
Watch the highlights that helped the Phillies select Aidan Miller with the 27th pick in the 2023 MLB draft.
Why the Phillies took him here: Miller has been one of the most well-known players in this class since his mid-teens, winning MVP of the Under Armour High School All-America Game and the 2022 High School Home Run Derby at All-Star Weekend. He has drawn comparisons to Donaldson for both his power swing and ability to draw walks, showing plus power against high-level competition. So how did he fall here? Miller is already 19 years old and was slowed by a hamate bone injury that derailed his senior season this spring. — Mullen
28. Houston Astros: Brice Matthews, SS, Nebraska
Who is Matthews? A high school quarterback in Texas, Matthews hit .359 with 20 home runs and 20 steals for the Cornhuskers, the first player in school history to reach 20/20 — and it came with some of the data points that front offices love these days, including an average exit velocity equal to Crews.
Why the Astros took him: New GM Dana Brown comes from a more traditional scouting background, but this is a pick that aligns with the Astros’ number-crunching models of the past decade. But Matthews is more than just a data darling, as all of his tools grade as average or better. Given the huge improvement from his sophomore to junior seasons, he could be a late-blooming prospect. He has the range and arm to play shortstop but made 21 errors, so he could end up moving elsewhere in the infield or perhaps to center field. — Schoenfield
Compensation pick
29. Seattle Mariners: Jonny Farmelo, CF, Westfield (Va.) HS
(for Julio Rodriguez winning ROY)
After taking a high school shortstop with their first pick, the Mariners go back to the prep ranks here. Farmelo is a late-blooming explosive outfielder who looks more like a center fielder now than he did a year ago and with a combination of hitting ability, power and speed.
Competitive Balance Round A
30. Seattle Mariners: Tai Peete, SS, Trinity Christian (Ga.) HS
Peete is young for his class at age 17. He’s a switch-hitting shortstop with plus power and also an early-round prospect on the mound as a pitcher. The question is whether Peete’s hit tool is strong enough to allow that power to play.
31. Tampa Bay Rays: Adrian Santana, SS, Doral (Fla.) HS
Another 17-year-old switch-hitting shortstop, Santana has a contact-oriented approach at the plate and 80-grade speed with the potential to be a very strong shortstop defensively — but his power could lag behind the rest of his game.
32. New York Mets: Colin Houck, SS, Parkview (Ga.) HS
(First pick dropped 10 spots because they exceeded the competitive balance tax threshold by more than $40 million.)
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The top highlights the Mets can expect from Colin Houck
Watch the highlights that helped the Mets select Colin Houck with the 32nd pick in the 2023 MLB draft.
The Mets couldn’t have asked for more than seeing a player who could have easily gone in the top 15 picks in this draft fall to them at No. 32. Houck was also a Power 5 recruit as a quarterback and while he’ll likely end up moving from shortstop to third base, his swing and offensive ability that draw Evan Longoria comparisons should play anywhere in the infield.
33. Milwaukee Brewers: Josh Knoth, RHP, Patchogue-Medford (N.Y.) HS
Knoth attended the same high school as 2023 All-Star Marcus Stroman, but his breaking-ball-heavy approach more resembles that of Lance McCullers Jr. or Matt Brash. Standing at just 6-foot-1 with inconsistent results as a prep, Knoth could develop into a starter or find his pro fit more as a reliever.
34. Minnesota Twins: Charlee Soto, RHP, Reborn Christian (Fla.) HS
Still just 17 years old, Soto has a lot of the things scouts look for in a starting pitcher: He stands 6-foot-5 with a fastball that touches 99 mph and backs it up with a plus slider and above-average splitter.
35. Miami Marlins: Thomas White, LHP, Phillips Academy (Mass.) HS
White has struggled with consistency and command since being the best pitcher in his class just a few years ago. But he stands at 6-foot-5, hits 95 mph and shows three plus pitches when he’s on.
36. Los Angeles Dodgers: Kendall George, CF, Atascocita (Texas) HS
(First pick dropped 10 spots because they exceeded the competitive balance tax threshold by more than $40 million.)
George is in the conversation for fastest runner in this draft and has relied on that speed and his contact skills. The question here, like for many 80-grade runners coming out of high school, is how much power he can add as a pro.
37. Detroit Tigers: Kevin McGonigle, SS, Monsignor Bonner (Pa.) HS
0:18
The top highlights the Tigers can expect from Kevin McGonigle
Watch the highlights that helped the Tigers select Kevin McGonigle with the 37th pick in the 2023 MLB draft.
McGonigle, No. 21 on McDaniel’s big board, is a pure hitter who can stick in the infield, although maybe not at shortstop. The rest of the tools maybe don’t jump out at you, but the most important is the hit tool — and that’s what McGonigle has.
38. Cincinnati Reds: Ty Floyd, RHP, LSU
Floyd made himself a lot of money with one of the most memorable starts in College World Series, striking out 17 Florida hitters in Game 1 of the CWS finals and rocketing himself up draft boards. His fastball velocity and slider have always been there, so the key to his pro development will be finding consistency with the command that has abandoned him at times.
39. Oakland Athletics: Myles Naylor, 3B, St. Joan of Arc (Canada) HS
Yep, Naylor is the youngest of the three Naylor brothers and joins Josh (12th overall pick in 2015) and Bo (29th pick in 2018) as a high pick. Like his older brothers, he can hit, although he doesn’t have Josh’s raw power. A shortstop in high school, Myles likely moves to third base or even the outfield as a pro.
Second round
40. Washington Nationals: Yohandy Morales, 3B, Miami
41. Oakland Athletics: Ryan Lasko, OF, Rutgers
42. Pittsburgh Pirates: Mitch Jebb, SS, Michigan State
43. Cincinnati Reds: Sammy Stafura, SS, Walter Panas (N.Y.) HS
44. Kansas City Royals: Blake Wolters, RHP, Mahomet-Seymour (Ill.) HS
45. Detroit Tigers: Max Anderson, 2B, Nebraska
46. Colorado Rockies: Sean Sullivan, LHP, Wake Forest
47. Miami Marlins: Kemp Alderman, OF, Ole Miss
48. Arizona Diamondbacks: Gino Groover, 3B, NC State
49. Minnesota Twins: Luke Keaschall, 2B, Arizona State
50. Boston Red Sox: Nazzan Zanetello, SS, Christian Brothers College (Mo.) HS
Remaining draft order
51. Chicago White Sox
52. San Francisco Giants
53. Baltimore Orioles
54. Milwaukee Brewers
55. Tampa Bay Rays
56. New York Mets
57. Seattle Mariners
58. Cleveland Guardians
59. Atlanta Braves
60. Los Angeles Dodgers
61. Houston Astros
Competitive Balance Round B
62. Cleveland Guardians
63. Baltimore Orioles
64. Arizona Diamondbacks
65. Colorado Rockies
66. Kansas City Royals
67. Pittsburgh Pirates
Compensation Picks
68. Chicago Cubs
69. San Francisco Giants
70. Atlanta Braves
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David Schoenfield
In a season when offense has often been hard to find — when 20 qualified pitchers have an ERA under 3.00 and 27 relievers with at least 20 innings have an ERA under 2.00 — New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge and Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh have produced history-crunching numbers that would stand out in any era, but especially in 2025.
Judge’s season isn’t unexpected. He hit 62 home runs in 2022 and 58 in 2024, when he became the first player to slug .700 since Barry Bonds, but he is putting up numbers that exceed the lofty totals of those seasons. He’s hitting .364/.464/.724 with 28 home runs and is on pace for 11.9 bWAR — a figure only five position players have achieved or surpassed. And he has done all this despite a six-game slump in mid-June when he went 2-for-22.
Raleigh’s season, on the other hand, is one of the most unexpected MVP-level campaigns in recent memory. The 28-year-old is hitting .275/.380/.651 and leads all of MLB with 69 RBIs and 32 home runs, just the 24th time a player has at least 30 homers through 81 team games. And though he has hit 30 home runs before — he’s just the fourth catcher with at least three 30-homer seasons — he’s already two from his career high … and we’re still in June. It, of course, feels impossible that he’ll continue his current 65-home run pace, but he’s in a position to finish with one of the greatest offensive seasons by a catcher. His 4.3 bWAR puts him on pace for 8.9, which would top Mike Piazza’s 8.7 in 1997 as the highest for a catcher.
With the Yankees and Mariners playing their 81st games Friday — the halfway point of the season — let’s dig into some of the greatest power seasons from past first halves to put into perspective what Judge and Raleigh are doing.
Note: All stats will be through 81 team games rather than the more traditional first-half totals listed on Baseball-Reference, which vary in terms of games played based on when the All-Star Game took place.
Greatest power half-seasons ever
Most home runs through 81 games
Here are the top six sluggers on the list — and the number of home runs they finished with:
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Barry Bonds, 2001 Giants: 39 (73)
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Mark McGwire, 1998 Cardinals: 37 (70)
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Babe Ruth, 1921 Yankees: 35 (59)
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Reggie Jackson, 1969 A’s: 34 (47)
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Babe Ruth, 1928 Yankees: 33 (54)
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Jimmie Foxx, 1932 A’s: 33 (58)
Ruth and Foxx played when the schedule was 154 games, so they didn’t have those eight extra games the others did. A 23-year-old Jackson, in just his second full season in the majors, was on pace to break Roger Maris’ then-record of 61, but he tired down the stretch, hitting just five home runs in August and two in September.
Raleigh is part of a group that includes five others with 32 home runs — Ruth (1930), Maris (1961), Ken Griffey Jr. (1994), Sammy Sosa (1998 and 1999) and Luis Gonzalez (2001). Ruth tailed off and finished with 49 home runs, and the strike interrupted Griffey’s season in August, leaving him with 40 home runs with 50 games to go (a 58-homer pace).
The last player with at least 30 home runs through 81 games: Shohei Ohtani … but in 2021, not 2024. That was the season he had that amazing stretch of 16 home runs in 21 games before the All-Star break, but he tailed off in the second half and finished with 46.
Can Raleigh avoid the fate so many others with high early home run totals have met? As you would expect, that group of players who hit at least 30 home runs in the first half tailed off, averaging 32 home runs in their first 81 games but 19 the rest of the way, for a season average of 51. But four of those 23 seasons came in the 154-game era, three others came in the strike-shortened 1994 season (Griffey, Frank Thomas and Matt Williams) and two came from players who suffered injuries that limited their playing time in the second half (Jose Canseco in 1999 and McGwire in 2000).
None of them were catchers, though.
Best power/average totals through 81 games
Let’s start by looking at a list of the highest OPS figures through 81 games:
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Barry Bonds, 2004 Giants: 1.414
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Babe Ruth, 1921 Yankees: 1.374
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Barry Bonds, 2001 Giants: 1.357
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Barry Bonds, 2002 Giants: 1.342
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Babe Ruth, 1930 Yankees: 1.338
OK, you get the idea. In terms of raw OPS, Ruth also owns three of the next five spots. He and Bonds dominate all these leaderboards, whether it’s over half a season or a full season. Judge ranks 25th with his 1.202 OPS.
However, Judge is doing this in a lower-scoring era — that’s why his adjusted stats such as wRC+ or OPS+ rank among the best ever. His wRC+ of 221 would rank seventh all time — behind three Bonds seasons, two Ruth seasons and one from Ted Williams, and just ahead of Judge’s 2024 season. His OPS+ of 226 ranks 10th, behind seasons from those same three players, who are widely considered the greatest hitters.
Still, Judge’s combination of power with a high batting average is unique for any era. He is one of just nine players hitting .360 or higher with at least 28 home runs through 81 team games (assuming he remains above .360 after the Yankees play on Friday night):
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Babe Ruth, 1921 Yankees: .372, 35 HRs
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Jimmie Foxx, 1932 A’s: .383, 33 HRs
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Babe Ruth, 1930 Yankees: .374, 32 HRs
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Mickey Mantle, 1956 Yankees: .371, 30 HRs
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Frank Thomas, 1994 White Sox: .373, 30 HRs
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Babe Ruth, 1927 Yankees: .366, 29 HRs
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Lou Gehrig, 1927 Yankees: .397, 28 HRs
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Tony Perez, 1970 Reds: .363, 28 HRs
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Aaron Judge, 2025 Yankees: .364, 28 HRs
These are some of the greatest hitting seasons of all time. Ruth set the record for total bases in 1921. Foxx hit .364 with 58 home runs and 169 RBIs in 1932. Mantle won the Triple Crown in 1956 when he hit .353 with 52 home runs and 130 RBIs. Yes, that’s Ruth and Gehrig from the same season when Ruth blasted 60 home runs and Gehrig hit 47, with Ruth’s total topping every other American League team … You get the gist.
Judge’s average is remarkable given the overall AL average is just .243. When Ruth and Gehrig tore apart the AL in 1927, for example, the league average was .286. The lowest average from this list was Mantle’s 1956 season, when the non-pitcher average was still .264. Looking at Judge’s season from this perspective makes his power/average combo one of the most impressive 81-game first halves we’ve seen, even aside from the era-adjusted analytics.
What it means for Judge and Raleigh
Is this the greatest season from a catcher we’ve seen?
Raleigh has hit 29 of his 32 home runs as a catcher (he has a 1.116 OPS while catching compared with .659 in 17 games as a DH). There are a couple of ways to look at the single-season home run record for catchers. The list for primary catchers — at least 50% of their games behind the plate — looks like this:
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Salvador Perez, 2021 Royals: 48
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Johnny Bench, 1970 Reds: 45
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Javy Lopez, 2003 Braves: 43
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Roy Campanella, 1953 Dodgers: 41
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Todd Hundley, 1996 Mets: 41
Bench added another 40-homer season in 1972 while Piazza had two 40-homer seasons. Perez hit just 33 as a catcher in 2021, with his other 15 coming as a DH. Lopez is the leader for home runs hit while playing the catcher position with 42.
Raleigh has been a low-average power hitter in his first three-plus seasons in the majors — he hit .220 with 34 home runs last year — but now he’s hitting for more power and a higher average. Sifting through his Statcast metrics, there aren’t obvious changes in his approach or swing patterns. Like Bryce Harper, he has always combined an above-average walk rate with a below-average chase rate, although he hasn’t been as extreme in his chase rate as Harper (although he has had higher strikeout rates than Harper).
There have been a few slight improvements across the board from 2024: His chase rate has improved 3 percentage points; his strikeout rate is down 3 percentage points; his fly ball rate is up about 4 percentage points; but his pulled fly ball rate, however, is up over 11 percentage points.
That last one is the big number. That has helped Raleigh to a few more wall scrapers. He is tied with Michael Busch and Paul Goldschmidt with 12 “doubters” — home runs that would be out of just one to seven parks based on distance.
But there’s another reason for Raleigh’s improvement: As a switch-hitter, he has always been much better from the left side, but this season, he’s mashing from the right side, hitting .319 with 11 home runs against left-handers after hitting .183 with 13 home runs against them last season. His “fast swing” percentage (swings of 75-plus mph) from the right side has gone way up, from 39.3% to 48.5%.
Raleigh is also not missing mistakes. Check his results on middle-middle pitches (ones thrown over the center of the plate, both horizontally and vertically) that he puts in play:
2024: .315 average, .795 slugging, 11 HR in 73 AB
2025: .515 average, 1.576 slugging, 11 HR in 33 AB
Can he keep it going? The big question might be how he’ll hold up in the long run. Raleigh has started 78 of Seattle’s first 80 games and pinch hit one other time (he hit a game-tying, two-run single in the ninth inning). He played 153 games last season and has the luxury of some DH games, but this is still a huge workload for a catcher. Last Saturday, he caught all nine innings of a three-hour game in 94-degree heat at Wrigley Field. He was in the lineup Sunday as the DH and back behind the plate the next two nights.
He’s obviously vital to the Mariners — although Seattle’s often maligned lineup is second in the majors in road OPS (but 25th at home). For now, with the Mariners fighting for a wild-card spot after being overtaken by the Houston Astros atop the AL West, manager Dan Wilson has to ride his hot hand; given the Mariners’ unexpected rotation issues, they need all the runs they can get.
Can Judge stay this dominant?
In one sense, we already know the answer to this: No. When Judge was hitting .432 on May 3, his BABIP was .512. Since then, it’s a still-lofty .383, but that is more in line with the .367 mark he had last season, when he finished with a .322 average. He has also avoided prolonged droughts; even when he homered just once in a 20-game stretch in April, he still hit .425. Indeed, it feels about time for Judge to launch into another of his patented home run tears. Yankees manager Aaron Boone, like Wilson with Raleigh, is riding the momentum of his star player: Judge hasn’t missed a game, although Boone has started him 18 times at DH.
As for the MVP race between these two AL sluggers, we’ll leave that for deeper into the season. Both players have a higher WAR figure on FanGraphs — where it looks like a tighter race: 6.1 for Judge, 5.6 for Raleigh — than Baseball-Reference. (FanGraphs incorporates catcher framing into its evaluation, a plus for Raleigh, who won the AL’s Platinum Glove last season as best overall defender.) It would be quite the debate: an all-time great season for a hitter against maybe the greatest power season from a catcher (and a good defensive one at that).
For now, sit back and enjoy the slugging.
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Bill Connelly
Army and Navy are in the AAC. Liberty and New Mexico State landed in Conference USA. UMass decided to head back to the MAC. Sacramento State’s efforts to become an FBS independent aren’t working out. In a year, Oregon State and Washington State will be members of a fully stocked Pac-12 again. (They aren’t really indies now, either, but I’m putting them in here because I didn’t want to write a two-team conference preview.)
The indie party has thinned out significantly in recent years. It looks like we’ll be down to Notre Dame and UConn by next year, and, one of these years maybe those perpetual “UConn to the Big 12?” rumors will actually bear fruit, too. Regardless, these four teams bring loads of storylines to the table. Notre Dame might be more loaded this season than it was during last year’s earlier-than-expected run to the national title game. UConn has restocked after last year’s thrilling (and rather out of nowhere) nine-win campaign. Oregon State’s roster has stabilized after a tumultuous 2024, and Washington State is attempting a complete culture transplant.
Let’s preview 2025’s independents (and the final two-team Pac-12)!
Every week through the summer, Bill Connelly will preview another FBS conference, ultimately including all 136 FBS teams. The previews will include 2024 breakdowns, 2025 previews and team-by-team capsules. Here are the MAC, Conference USA, Mountain West, Sun Belt and AAC previews.
2024 recap
We had a lot of plot lines running here despite a small number of teams. In their first season after watching 10 conference mates (and a bunch of players) depart the Pac-12, Wazzu and Oregon State started strong and collapsed; the former started 8-1 and finished 0-4, while the latter started 4-1 and finished 1-6. Wazzu then lost its head coach and most of its stars as well.
Meanwhile, out East, Jim Mora was engineering UConn’s best season in 14 years while fending off all sorts of transfer portal vultures. Per SP+, the Huskies fielded their best defense since 2015 and their best offense since 2009, and after a pretty clear regular-season split — 0-4 against power conference teams, 8-0 against the Group of 5 — they capped a nine-win campaign with a 27-14 Fenway Bowl thumping of North Carolina.
Oh yeah, and Notre Dame reached the national title game. The Fighting Irish had their line depth tested significantly — only one offensive or defensive lineman started all 16 games — and passed with flying colors. After a shocking loss to NIU in Week 2, they had to win out to reach the CFP and did so, and then they beat Indiana, Georgia and Penn State before a midgame lull in the finals resulted in a 34-23 loss to Ohio State. It’s hard to find new firsts to accomplish in South Bend, but Marcus Freeman got to check the “Notre Dame’s first 14-win season” box.
Continuity table
The continuity table looks at each team’s returning production levels (offense, defense and overall), the number of 2024 FBS starts from returning and incoming players and the approximate number of redshirt freshmen on the roster heading into 2025. (Why “approximate”? Because schools sometimes make it very difficult to ascertain who redshirted and who didn’t.) Continuity is an increasingly difficult art in roster management, but some teams pull it off better than others.
For a title-game finalist, Notre Dame’s continuity is pretty impressive. Freeman didn’t have to do a ton of portal work because his Irish return 10 starters from 2024, plus loads of part-timers and some key injury returnees (namely, left tackle Charles Jagusah and defensive end Jordan Botelho). He plumped up depth at receiver (a necessity) and in the defensive line and secondary, but he stayed in-house to find a replacement for quarterback Riley Leonard. If that proves to be the right call, the Irish will contend again.
Elsewhere, UConn managed to avoid getting completely plucked apart by the aforementioned vultures, and while Wazzu is starting almost completely from scratch, Oregon State has encouraging continuity heading toward the fall.
2025 projections
Notre Dame’s schedule is a strange one: The Irish play projected top-15 teams in each of the first two weeks (at Miami in Week 1, then Texas A&M in Week 2) but don’t play another projected Top 25 team for the rest of the year. If they’re genuinely a title-caliber squad again, the Irish could roll, but all sorts of land mines await — at Arkansas, Boise State, USC, Navy, at Pitt — if their attention drifts.
Out West, OSU and Wazzu did something I enjoy: They arranged a home-and-home. They’ll face off in Corvallis on Nov. 1, then again in Pullman on Nov. 29. (Personally, I think they should make it a best-of-three and play on a neutral site over Championship Week if they split the first two games. Put it in Las Vegas. Call it the “Pac-12 Championship.”)
Notre Dame’s schedule strength will be impacted greatly by how good teams like Arkansas and Boise State turn out to be, but at this moment the Irish are one of the surest playoff contenders on the board. Start 1-1, and you’re in great shape from there. And while UConn does have some roster holes to fill, a schedule featuring nine opponents projected 91st or lower in SP+ should make a third bowl trip in four seasons pretty likely.
Five best games of 2025
Here are the five games involving independents that feature (a) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (b) a projected scoring margin under 10 points.
Cal at Oregon State (Aug. 30). With seven games projected within a touchdown or less, Oregon State’s season could go in quite a few different directions; the Beavers start out with two of those games, both at home. If they’re 2-0 when they head to Texas Tech in Week 3, they could be on their way to a lovely campaign. If they’re 0-2, well…
Notre Dame at Miami (Aug. 31). The single-digit requirement means that only one Notre Dame game shows up on this list. Even against Texas A&M in Week 2, the Irish are favored by 10.2. But this Week 1 battle is enormous. With a new quarterback and new defense, Miami is going to be a talented mystery right out of the gate. If the Irish survive this challenge, their CFP odds skyrocket.
Washington at Washington State (Sept. 20). With former South Dakota State head coach Jimmy Rogers taking over (and bringing lots of former Jackrabbits with him), Wazzu will be fascinating to follow. The Cougs will have a couple of decent tests before this Week 4 matchup, but the Apple Cup will be Rogers’ first big test to prove his physical identity is taking hold.
Houston at Oregon State (Sept. 27). Trips to Texas Tech and Oregon are likely to produce two OSU losses, which means that this one will represent the official start to Act II of the Beavers’ season. They could be 3-2 after the Houston game, but they could also theoretically be 0-5.
Duke at UConn (Nov. 8). Even if UConn struggles with an almost entirely new starting defense, the schedule is kind enough that the Huskies are never projected double-digit underdogs. Even Duke, the third of three ACC opponents and the best projected team on the schedule, will visit East Hartford as only about an eight-point favorite here.
CFP contenders
Head coach: Marcus Freeman (fourth year, 33-10 overall)
2025 projection: sixth in SP+, 10.5 average wins
Of the top seven teams in the current SP+ projections, only one, No. 3 Penn State, returns its starting quarterback. For that matter, only three of the top 13 teams do. This is part of the reason for what I feel is the relative offseason overhyping of Clemson — quarterback Cade Klubnik is the proverbial bird in hand even though he’s never ranked higher than 13th in Total QBR.
It’s worth remembering, however, that six of the top seven in Total QBR last year (and 10 of the top 12) were first-year starters at their schools of choice. The bird in hand is only preferable until we know which of the new guys is awesome.
CJ Carr might be awesome. The Saline, Michigan, product — and grandson of former Michigan head coach Lloyd Carr — was a top-40 recruit and the No. 2 pocket passer in the class of 2024. He is by most accounts super-smart with a super-strong arm, and he was solid enough this spring that a) Marcus Freeman didn’t feel the need to make any sort of desperate post-spring portal QB acquisition and b) 2024 backup Steve Angeli read the writing on the wall and transferred to Syracuse.
Carr (or, theoretically, sophomore Kenny Minchey) is one of the most important players of the 2025 season in that, if he’s good, Notre Dame might not have a single weakness. For starters, the Irish will have Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price (combined: 1,871 rushing yards, 24 TDs) back at running back. Love is the best returning yards-after-contact back in FBS; only Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty and Miami’s Damien Martinez topped him in 2024, and they’re both now in the NFL.
At receiver, CFP semifinal hero Jaden Greathouse is back in the slot, and while Freeman added fewer transfers than most, he did nab Malachi Fields (Virginia) and Will Pauling (Wisconsin), each of whom averaged more yards per route run than any Notre Dame receiver not named Greathouse. The offensive line overcame rampant injuries and extreme inexperience to play at a high level late last season; it lost two starters to the portal, but that was in part because others, like Charles Jagusah and center Ashton Craig, were likely to start over them. The defense, meanwhile, returns 12 of the 20 players who saw 200-plus snaps last season and welcomes 2023 starting end Jordan Botelho and potentially high-value transfers like tackle Jared Dawson (Louisville) and nickel DeVonta Smith (Alabama).
In a way, Notre Dame’s charge to the 2024 title game came ahead of schedule, as evidenced by the massive number of key returnees who are either juniors (Love, Price, Greathouse, Craig, right tackle Aamil Wagner, defensive end Joshua Burnham, defensive tackle Donovan Hinish, linebackers Drayk Bowen and Jaylen Sneed, cornerback Christian Gray) or sophomores (Jagusah, left tackle Anthonie Knapp, defensive ends Bryce Young and Boubacar Traore, linebackers Jaiden Ausberry and Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa, cornerback Leonard Moore, safety Adon Shuler). The passing game produced almost no big plays of note, and the Irish had to rely on long strings of error-free plays to score points, and despite all the youth around Leonard, they got it. And despite having to start 20 different guys at least once on defense, they consistently delivered, especially against the pass.
It was a seasonlong endorsement of what Freeman is building — right down to how this inexperienced Irish team responded to probably the single most shocking result of the season. And now, in theory, this team could continue growing and developing moving forward. As long as it has a QB.
Well, a QB and a defensive coordinator. With Al Golden moving on to the NFL, Freeman replaced him with former Rutgers head coach and Texas (among others) defensive coordinator Chris Ash. Ash and Golden are awfully similar from a résumé perspective — once up-and-comers, they were both relative failures as head coaches who spent time in the pros before landing in South Bend. But Golden’s overall track record as a head coach and coordinator was a little bit stronger, and the last time Ash was part of either a top-10 NFL defense or a top-40 college defense was 2015. Freeman’s presence assures a pretty high floor, Ash will have lots of fun toys to play with, and Freeman has quickly earned the benefit of the doubt. But it was hard to love this hire.
The schedule does present one extra obstacle: Not only will the Irish obviously need good quarterback play from an inexperienced player, but thanks to the two best projected opponents showing up in the first two weeks of the season, they’ll need it immediately. This roster positively screams “major national title contender in 2026,” but the Irish’s status as a 2025 contender will be determined by how quickly Carr (or Minchey!) looks the part and whether or not Ash can immediately thrive.
Everyone else
Head coach: Jim Mora (fourth year, 18-20 overall)
2025 projection: 84th in SP+, 7.4 average wins
You’re forgiven if you didn’t see this coming. Lord knows I didn’t. Jim Mora’s UConn tenure began with a massive surge from 1-11 to 6-7 in 2022, but the underlying stats suggested it was awfully fluky, and the Huskies crashed to 3-9 in 2023, then began 2024 with a 50-7 faceplant against Maryland.
Following that terrible trip to College Park, however, they ignited, winning nine of their final 12 games, losing to three ACC teams (Duke, Wake Forest and Syracuse) by a combined 15 points and beating everyone else on the docket. The offense dealt with ups and downs but got over 2,200 rushing yards and 18 TDs from a trio of backs — one of whom, Cam Edwards (830 yards, 5.7 per carry), returns — and random big plays from receiver Skyler Bell (who also returns). Under first-year coordinator Matt Brock, meanwhile, the defense basically started and ended drives brilliantly: The Huskies ranked first nationally in three-and-out rate (42.4%), fourth in third-down conversion rate allowed (29.1%) and eighth in red zone touchdown rate allowed (46.5%).
A lot of key components return in 2025: Mora, Brock, Edwards, Bell, quarterbacks Joe Fagnano and Nick Evers, four part- or full-time starting offensive linemen and a pair of excellent DBs in nickel D’Mon Brinson and sophomore corner Cam Chadwick. But when a mid-major team surprises in the mid-2020s, the vultures quickly start hovering. UConn lost four starters to power conference transfers, including three from the dynamite D. In all, of the 13 defenders who started at least four games, Brinson and Chadwick are the only returnees.
Mora tried to strike back the best he could in the portal. He landed 26 transfers in all, including smaller school standouts like running back MJ Flowers (Eastern Illinois), 6-foot-7 offensive lineman Hayden Bozich (Brown), defensive linemen Marquis Black (Gardner-Webb) and Stephon Wright (Texas Southern) and corners Kolubah Pewee Jr. (Georgetown) and Sammy Anderson Jr. (Austin Peay). He also might have identified a potential inefficiency by searching for either guys who were semi-proven but injured in 2024 — receivers Naiem Simmons (USF) and Caleb Burton III (Auburn) — or players like receiver Reymello Murphy (Arizona/ODU), receiver Thai Chiaokhiao-Bowman (Rice/Florida) and linebacker Bryun Parham (Washington/SJSU), multitime transfers who have fallen off of other teams’ radars after nondescript 2024 campaigns.
Mora has been pretty open and interesting regarding his thoughts on the transfer portal, the loyalty of players and whatnot, and in this increasingly transient college football environment, he’s made a lot of astute moves. The defense lost enough players that regression is conceivable, but a more experienced offense (and replenished receiving corps) could pick up the slack, and there are lots of potential wins on the schedule. The outlook for this program flipped quickly.
Head coach: Trent Bray (second year, 5-7 overall)
2025 projection: 73rd in SP+, 6.6 average wins
There are always going to be haves and have-nots in college football, but for a lot of us, it doesn’t seem like too much to ask for some semblance of fairness. If a program invests and hires smartly and puts a strong product on the field, it should be rewarded with more or better opportunities to prove itself, whether it is a historic powerhouse or not.
What happened to Oregon State and Washington State, then, will never sit particularly well. Jonathan Smith returned to his alma mater at a low point — OSU was 1-11 and 120th in SP+ the year before he arrived — and slowly built it into a top-30 program. The Beavers won 18 games with an average SP+ ranking of 23.5 in 2022-23. They beat Oregon and walloped Florida to finish 2022 and beat Utah (which then left for the Big 12), Cal (ACC), UCLA (Big Ten), Colorado (Big 12) and Stanford (ACC) in 2023. And they were rewarded for this turnaround by losing their power conference status … and eventually their head coach and 19 starters, too. With former defensive coordinator Trent Bray taking over in 2024, the Beavers flashed offensive potential and ran the ball well, but a decimated defense allowed at least 31 points seven times and plummeted from 35th to 107th in defensive SP+. The Beavers’ record fell accordingly.
While I can whine about fairness — and boy, do I! — Bray doesn’t have that luxury. He’s tasked with winning games no matter the situation, and he might have crafted a team that can do so in 2025. He held onto the offense’s two best players (running back Anthony Hankerson and wideout Trent Walker) and added former blue-chippers in quarterback Maalik Murphy (Duke) and tight ends Riley Williams (Miami) and Jackson Bowers (BYU), plus a number of offensive line transfers. On defense, he added six transfers to a lineup that returns 14 of the 21 players who started at least once. Edge rusher Nikko Taylor (nine TFLs) is excellent, 345-pound senior tackle Jacob Schuster is a keeper and sophomores like tackles Thomas Collins and Jojo Johnson, edge rusher Zakaih Saez, nickel Sailasa Vadrawale III and corner Exodus Ayers posted decent numbers in small samples. There aren’t any no-brainer successes among the incoming transfers, but edge rusher Walker Harris (Southern Utah) has the size to succeed.
As mentioned above, the schedule offers lots of win opportunities but few guarantees. The Beavers are projected to win 6.6 games on average, but thanks to the high number of close games, they have both a 7% chance of going 4-8 or worse and a 10% chance of going 9-3 or better. If Murphy and Walker form a strong rapport early on, and OSU gets past Cal and Fresno State to start the season, this could be a pretty fun fall in Corvallis. Of course, the opposite is also on the table.
Head coach: Jimmy Rogers (first year)
2025 projection: 82nd in SP+, 5.6 average wins
Wazzu’s 2024 season didn’t go off the rails the same way that OSU’s did. Despite losing quarterback Cam Ward and most of his skill corps — and despite watching Ward damn near win the Heisman and become the No. 1 pick while at Miami — Jake Dickert’s Cougars actually jumped to 22nd in offensive SP+ thanks to a new set of stars like quarterback John Mateer and freshman running back Wayshawn Parker. They beat back-to-back power conference foes, including Apple Cup rival Washington, during an 8-1 start, too. Defense and special teams were both pretty dire, which became particularly costly during four late losses, but they still improved by three wins. It could have been worse.
Of course, it then got worse. Dickert left for Wake Forest, and a whopping 60 Cougars eventually entered the transfer portal, including Mateer (Oklahoma) and Parker (Utah). Only three returning Cougs started more than two games last season; this roster has been stripped to the studs.
It’s been rebuilt with Jackrabbits. Former South Dakota State head man Jimmy Rogers took over and eventually brought 16 SDSU transfers with him. The success of the SDSU program and the volume of incoming Jacks made Wazzu one of the sport’s more interesting teams to me this spring: “Running backs Angel Johnson, Kirby Vorhees and Maxwell Woods combined to rush for 1,403 yards at 7.2 per carry at SDSU last year; they’re all Cougs now. So are defensive backs Tucker Large, Caleb Francl, Matthew Durrance and Colby Humphrey, who combined for 215 tackles, 14 TFLs, 7 interceptions and 20 breakups. This sort of culture transplant has produced both immediate brilliance (Curt Cignetti’s incredible Indiana turnaround in 2024) and the exact opposite (Jay Norvell went just 5-16 in his first two seasons at Colorado State after bringing double-digit transfers from Nevada). A good player culture is finicky and unpredictable, but if Pullman can become Brookings West in that regard, success will follow.”
Walking through the new Wazzu roster, position by position, there’s plenty to like. Quarterback Zevi Eckhaus looked good in relief of Mateer last season, the SDSU running back trio is absolutely dynamite, slot receiver Josh Meredith is a keeper, the offensive line returns two starters and maybe New Mexico State’s best player (guard AJ Vaipulu), the defensive line welcomes eight new transfers (including maybe NMSU’s second-best player, end Buddha Peleti), linebacker Keith Brown was a small-sample box-score filler last year, and the SDSU transplants in the secondary should hold up nicely. But there’s so much turnover that SP+ isn’t really keeping the faith: The Cougs are projected to fall to 82nd. That obviously comes with some massive potential variance, though, and it wouldn’t take much overachievement to flip a lot of games from toss-ups to wins. This is going to be a fascinating experiment.
Texas State is in the final steps of accepting an invitation to the Pac-12, as it has initiated the process of calling a board of regents meeting for Monday to complete the move, sources confirmed to ESPN.
Texas State officials began alerting Sun Belt officials of its formal offer to the Pac-12 and plans to accept, sources said. The Pac-12 and Texas State are expected to finalize the process soon, and the move will happen for the 2026-27 school year for all sports, according to sources. An announcement of the move isn’t expected before Monday.
It takes 72 hours to call a board of regents meeting in the Texas system, according to the state of Texas open meeting laws. By calling the meeting officially Friday, it allows Texas State to have the final meeting Monday.
This will mark the final steps in the courtship of Texas State to the Pac-12. The Bobcats have loomed as the heavy favorite to join the league for months as the eighth football-playing member. (Gonzaga is the league’s ninth member but doesn’t have football.)
The move came down to the final days of a key pressure point for Texas State, as the school’s exit fee to join the Pac-12 for 2026 doubles from $5 million to $10 million on July 1. With formal board approval needed to pay the exit fee and avoid the increase, Texas State’s invitation needed to come at some point this week.
The Pac-12 needed an eighth football member to operate as an FBS conference in 2026. The Bobcats will join Oregon State, Washington State, Boise State, San Diego State, Colorado State, Utah State and Fresno State.
Texas State’s addition hints at the school’s athletic potential and also gives the Pac-12 a niche in the football-rich state of Texas. The school has more than 40,000 students and is situated between Austin and San Antonio.
The Bobcats are coming off back-to-back 8-5 football seasons, which included two bowl wins under head coach G.J. Kinne. Texas State opens the 2025 season against Eastern Michigan, and its first game as a Pac-12 member will be at Texas in 2026.
The Austin Sports Journal was first to report the news of Texas State initiating the final steps for its move to the Pac-12.
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