Some of the biggest names in baseball will be taking aim at the T-Mobile Park bleachers on Monday (8 p.m. ET on ESPN) in one of the most anticipated events of the summer.
While a back-to-back champion is out of the picture — 2022 winner Juan Soto is not a part of this year’s field — Pete Alonso will try to become the second player to win the event three times, joining the elite company of Ken Griffey Jr. Will Alonso get in the way of Julio Rodriguez‘s hometown coronation in the Emerald City? Or will one of the other six participants take the title?
We have your one-stop shop for everything Derby related, from predictions to live updates once we get underway to analysis and takeaways.
Who is going to win the Derby and who will be the runner-up?
Gonzalez: If you saw Arozarena in this year’s World Baseball Classic — or, of course, in the 2020 postseason — then you know he is made for a moment like this. Arozarena was pushing to take part in this event before he was even voted an All-Star. He spent the Tampa Bay Rays‘ recent series in Seattle getting a feel for T-Mobile Park, and he then took part in a handful of timed practice rounds in the ensuing week to ensure he was ready. He wants this. And he’s going to get it — by outlasting Alonso in the final round.
Passan: Predictions are folly — I might well change mine leading into the broadcast based on how the participants are feeling in batting practice — but the best story would be a Rodriguez-Rutschman final. The hometown favorite vs. the Pacific Northwest-born-and-raised kid; two stars, neither older than 25, illustrating how special the next generation of baseball really is. And Rodriguez would not only vanquish the favored Alonso for the second consecutive year but finish the job after losing in the finals to Soto in 2022. Only Ryne Sandberg (1990), Todd Frazier (2015) and Bryce Harper (2018) have won a Derby at home. Rodriguez should make it a quartet.
Olney: Alonso takes this event more seriously than anyone in recent memory — maybe ever. He said as a rookie he dreamed about participating in the Derby as a kid and that so long as he was asked, he would always participate. A lot of the sluggers in the Derby field will fight exhaustion and work to slow down their heart rates; but this is Alonso’s fourth go-round, and he knows how to handle the moment, what to do between rounds and all of the little necessary tweaks and adjustments to make. Picking against Alonso in the Derby would be like picking against a Bill Belichick-coached team in the Super Bowl. Experience matters. And Alonso will win.
Rogers: Even though he is the No.1 seed, Robert is going to pull off the upset. (Las Vegas has Alonso as the favorite.) Robert has an effortless home run swing, a trait that can come in handy for the grueling Derby. He also won’t waste any pitches (or time) with the occasional foul ball or popup — or at least he won’t waste as many as others. Outside of Shohei Ohtani, Robert has been as locked in as anyone in the game. He will beat Alonso for the title.
Who will hit the longest home run of the night and how far?
Gonzalez: Rodriguez has the second-longest home run among the Derby participants this year, at 454 feet (Rutschman hit a mammoth 461-foot blast Sunday), and he obviously knows this ballpark better than anybody. I think he has something special in him and will unleash not just the longest home run of the night but the two longest — at 490 and 488 feet — all in his highly anticipated, first-round matchup against Alonso.
Passan: In terms of raw power, this is a two-man show: Alonso vs. Guerrero. And with his home run stroke returning in recent weeks, Guerrero is the pick, and 492 feet is the distance.
Olney: Among the Derby participants, Guerrero has the lowest average trajectory on his home runs this season, yet he has the longest average distance. It’s like he is bringing a 2-iron to the plate. He’ll go 485 feet.
Rogers: Let’s not overthink this. The Polar Bear has been there and done that — hitting monster home runs in past derbies, including multiple over 500 feet. Alonso will again hit at least one that far, so let’s go with a 507-foot homer for the evening’s longest.
Who is the one slugger fans will know much better after Monday’s derby?
Gonzalez: The baseball world still seemingly doesn’t know enough about Garcia, a major speed and power threat on a Texas Rangers team that has proved to be one of the best in the sport. And while most viewers will be anticipating the first-round matchup between Alonso and Rodriguez, the initial pairing of Garcia and Arozarena — two longtime friends dating back to their time in Cuba and through the St. Louis Cardinals‘ system, before finding success elsewhere — will be special.
Passan: Betts, for the record, is not anyone’s idea of a slugger. He stands 5-foot-9 and weighs 170 pounds; Garcia’s biceps are about as wide as Betts’ torso. And yet Betts’ 26 home runs this season are tied with those of Robert and Alonso for tops among Derby participants. Betts is probably the best known of the participants, so people won’t necessarily leave the Derby knowing of him. They’ll just know he has a lot more power than his reputation would suggest.
Olney: The winner of the Garcia-Arozarena first-round matchup. That showdown will have some juice and fun, and the winner will enjoy it — maybe even striking the arms-crossed pose Arozarena has made famous, whether he or Garcia wins.
Rogers: It has to be Robert. Though he has been ranked near the top of the league in home runs all season, he didn’t crack the top 10 in All-Star voting. In fact, no Chicago White Sox player showed up anywhere near the leaderboards for the Midsummer Classic. And as compared to the others in the Derby, it’s not even close who is the least known. Arozarena? Please. He is known worldwide considering his postseason and WBC success. Betts is a former MVP and is Mookie Betts. You get the picture. Many people might not know Garcia well, but he has the most long balls on the second-best team in the American League. Plus, I have Garcia going out in the first round.
What’s the one moment we’ll all be talking about long after this Derby ends?
Gonzalez: Remember Guerrero’s epic semifinal matchup against Joc Pederson in 2019 that ended in a swing-off and saw Guerrero amass 40 home runs, a record for a single round? I think we’re poised to get something like that again, this time in Guerrero’s semifinal matchup against Alonso, who is looking to join Ken Griffey Jr. as a three-time Derby winner. Guerrero announced he would take part in the Derby while wearing a T-shirt that read “Mr. 91,” a nod to the record-setting total he finished with in 2019. He is ready.
Passan: Garcia vs. Arozarena in a battle of friends. Alonso seeking revenge against J-Rod. The first-round matchups are pretty delectable. And someone, like Alden said, is bound to pop off and have a bananas round. But as a baseball nerd, I’m hoping that Rutschman — the No. 8 seed — takes swings from both sides of the plate. The format aligns well for it to happen. Start from his stronger side, the left, and hit until he needs a timeout. Then switch to the right and finish there.
Olney: Given that I’ve chosen Alonso — over J-Rod in the first round and others to follow — I’ll play that out and say that his celebration will be epic, as it has been in the past. The Polar Bear will be bouncing with joy, and there will be a pronouncement that he is the Muhammad Ali of this event. Alonso is not shy.
Rogers: How can it not involve Arozarena? The man has a flair for the dramatic and seems to take center stage in any big moment he is a part of. Let’s start with him getting to the finals. That will give him plenty of chances to create that memorable instance. Perhaps it’s a last-second homer to win a round. Or maybe during a break while hitting, he’ll run to the stands for a selfie with a fan. One way or another, he’s going to find that opening to cross his arms in his iconic pose, just as he did during the WBC this year or even while rounding the bases after hitting his first home run of the season. That’s right: He stopped near third base, folded his arms across his chest, then continued his jog home.
What will the series tally be in Caps-Canes when it heads back to D.C. — and will the Knights win at least one in Alberta so they even see a Game 5 back in Las Vegas?
Read on for game previews with statistical insights from ESPN Research, a recap of what went down in Friday’s games and the three stars of Friday from Arda Öcal.
With the Canes and Capitals tied up 1-1 heading to Raleigh for Games 3 and 4, ESPN BET has Carolina as the -215 series favorite. Washington is +180 to win the series.
Capitals defenseman John Carlson scored a power-play goal in Game 2, his 13th career playoff power-play goal, which breaks a tie with Brian Leetch for third for such goals by an American-born defenseman. He still trails Chris Chelios (14) and Brian Rafalski (17).
For the first time in his postseason career, Tom Wilson reached all of these thresholds: 2 points, 3 shots on goal, 2 hits and 2 blocked shots. His seven points this season is the most he has had in a playoff run since the Cup-winning year of 2018 (15).
The Hurricanes have not held an in-game lead since Game 4 of the first round against the Devils. They won the series in Game 5 in a double-overtime game, then won Game 1 of this series 2-1 in OT after trailing 1-0. Since that lead in Game 4 of the first round, they have trailed for 89:28 and been tied for 117:55.
Among qualified goaltenders this postseason, Frederik Andersen leads by a wide margin in goals-against average (1.55), and is second in save percentage, at .930. The netminder ahead of him in SV%? Washington’s Logan Thompson.
Following two wins by the Oilers in Vegas, ESPN BET now lists Edmonton as the -550 favorites to win this series, with the Golden Knights at +380. Edmonton is also the current favorite to win the Cup, at +300, narrowly ahead of the Stars, at +325. Vegas is now +1800, the longest odds of any team remaining in the playoffs.
Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid combined to score the game-winning OT goal in Game 2. It was the second OT goal this postseason for Draisaitl, and he is now tied for the most such goals in a single postseason in Oilers history with Esa Tikkanen in 1991.
McDavid is second among playoff scorers with 14 points through eight games, trailing only Mikko Rantanen‘s 15. McDavid’s 1.75 points per game this postseason is ahead of his rate in playoff seasons past (1.58) and well ahead of his rate during last year’s run to the Stanley Cup Final (1.36).
Victor Olofsson had two goals and an assist in a losing effort in Game 2. Both goals were on the power play, and he joins Jack Eichel as the only players in Knights history with multiple power-play goals in a single playoff game.
Speaking of Eichel, he finished with three assists, joining Shea Theodore and William Karlsson as the only players in Knights history with two three-assist playoff games on their résumé.
Öcal’s three stars from Friday
After a rough first round against the Blues, Hellebuyck shut out the Stars in Game 2. He made 21 saves en route to the fourth clean sheet of his postseason career.
Ehlers had his second career multigoal game and added an assist in a big Game 2 effort that tied Winnipeg’s series with Dallas 1-1.
The former Bruin continues to haunt the Maple Leafs, this time with the overtime winner to get the Panthers on the series board at 2-1. It was his fourth career playoff OT goal, and he extended his own NHL record for most consecutive postseasons with a game-winning goal (nine).
Toronto entered with a 2-0 series lead and got out to a 2-0 start in the game as well, with goals from Matthew Knies and John Tavares, before Aleksander Barkov drew the Panthers back to within a goal with his third goal of the postseason. Tavares added a power-play tally at 2:52 of the second period on a slick deflection, before the Panthers ripped off two goals in quick succession to tie the score. The first was thanks to Sam Reinhart poking the puck in during a wild scramble in the Leafs’ crease, the second after a superb pass from Sam Bennett to Carter Verhaeghe. Jonah Gadjovich put the home squad up 4-3, but Morgan Rielly tied things up midway through the third. It took until the final five minutes of the first OT, but Brad Marchand came through with another game-winning goal. Full recap.
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Brad Marchand’s OT winner sparks pandemonium from Panthers crowd
Brad Marchand scores a massive overtime goal to deliver the Panthers a 5-4 win over the Maple Leafs.
If this is the kind of goaltending the Jets will now get from Connor Hellebuyck, the Stars (and the rest of the NHL) are in trouble. Hellebuyck stopped all 21 shots sent on the Jets’ goal en route to his fourth career postseason shutout. On the offensive side, Gabriel Vilardi and Nikolaj Ehlers got the party started in the first. Adam Lowry added his fourth goal of the postseason in the second, and that 3-0 lead stood until 16:20 of the third, when Ehlers capped off the festivities with an empty-net goal. Full recap.
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Nikolaj Ehlers rolls in an empty-net goal for Winnipeg
Nikolaj Ehlers scores his second goal of the game to pad the Jets’ lead late in the third period vs. the Stars.
Kristen Shilton is a national NHL reporter for ESPN.
FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — Maple Leafs goaltender Anthony Stolarz continues to work his way back but doesn’t appear close to a return in Toronto’s second-round Eastern Conference playoff series against the Florida Panthers.
“He’s progressing in the right direction,” Maple Leafs coach Craig Berube said Saturday. “But he has not skated yet [since getting hurt].”
Stolarz was injured during Game 1 on Monday. The goaltender took a puck off his mask and an elbow to the head from Panthers forward Sam Bennett in the second period, exiting shortly after the Bennett hit. Stolarz, who was ill on Toronto’s bench before he left the game, was later transported to a hospital for evaluation.
The veteran was able to rejoin his teammates Tuesday at their facility but did not travel with the Maple Leafs to Florida ahead of Friday’s Game 3.
Joseph Woll took over the starting duties from Stolarz and helped stake Toronto to a 2-0 lead in the best-of-seven series. But Woll struggled in Game 3, recording an .861 save percentage as the Panthers mounted two multigoal comebacks to down the Maple Leafs 5-4 in overtime.
Berube said after the loss that he “thought [Woll] was really good” but that he didn’t love when Panthers fourth-liner Jonah Gadjovich beat the goaltender cleanly from outside the right faceoff circle to give Florida its first lead of the game at 4-3.
Woll also has been adjusting to playing the puck amid Florida’s smothering forecheck.
“They rim a lot of pucks,” Woll said Friday. “I’m just trying to do my best to help us break out.”
Florida hasn’t made it easy on Toronto in that respect. Berube anticipates Woll can learn from Friday’s mistakes and improve, though.
“It’s difficult,” Berube said. “A lot of those rims are up; they’re not on the ice. And that’s designed. If they can get a good lick on it, they’re going to get it on the glass. It’s pretty tough for him to come out and play those. He did get to a lot of them. But they’re coming hard. He’s going to have to move it quick.”
The sea of white in Winnipeg chanted “M-V-P!” in unison during the Jets‘ Game 2 win over the Dallas Stars on Friday night. Goalie Connor Hellebuyck heard and appreciated those chants.
“It means a whole lot. I love this crowd. I love this city,” said Hellebuyck, who stopped 21 shots in Winnipeg’s 4-0 victory that evened their Western Conference semifinal series at 1-1.
It was Hellebuyck’s first playoff shutout since a 1-0 blanking of the Edmonton Oilers in the first round in 2021, and the fourth postseason shutout of his career. Hellebuyck led the NHL with eight shutouts in the regular season, which helped him become a finalist for the Hart Trophy as league MVP and for the Vezina Trophy as the NHL’s top goaltender, an award he won last season and in 2020.
Prior to Friday night, he had not been that same goaltender in the postseason.
Considered by many the best netminder in the world, Hellebuyck was the worst goalie statistically in the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs entering Game 2. He was 4-4 with an .836 save percentage, the lowest for any goalie with at least three postseason games played. He was last in the playoffs through eight games with a minus-9.68 goals saved above expected. He had a 3.75 goals-against average as well, after sporting a GAA of 2.00 and a .925 save percentage in the regular season.
Yet the Jets’ faith in their goaltender never wavered.
“We rely on him. Sometimes too much. But he was incredible tonight,” said defenseman Josh Morrissey, who missed Game 1 against Dallas and most of Game 7 against St. Louis with an injury. “That’s what he does every night for us. He’s an incredible goaltender. He makes very difficult saves look very easy, routinely and often. You could tell he was feeling it tonight. When he’s feeling it like that, it gives the players in front of him a lot of confidence.”
Jets coach Scott Arniel said his goalie was “fantastic” in Game 2.
“Sometimes we take him for granted because he makes the hard look easy, but he had some acrobatic ones tonight,” Arniel said.
That was especially true in the second period. The Jets built a 2-0 lead in the first period on goals by Gabriel Vilardi and Nik Ehlers, whose shot deflected off the skate of Dallas defenseman Esa Lindell. Hellebuyck made nine saves in that opening frame.
“We pushed hard in the second to try and climb back in the game,” said Dallas coach Peter DeBoer. “Hellebuyck made some saves. We get one there, maybe the momentum shifts. But that was the game. He was a good. He was really good. We can always make it more difficult on him, but he was really good.”
After the game, Hellebuyck told Sportsnet that he believed he was back on his game after the shutout win.
“Now it’s locked in. We broke it down to build it back together,” he said. “I like where it’s at. I like where the team’s playing. I’m really excited for the series. It’s been fun.”
Whether the fun continues on the road for Sunday’s Game 3 is anyone’s guess.
Hellebuyck was a disaster in the Jets’ three games in St. Louis, giving up 16 goals on 66 shots (.758 save percentage) and getting pulled in each loss. In his past eight postseason road games, Hellebuyck is 1-7 with a .838 save percentage and a 5.19 goals-against average.
“We’re still playing hockey, and it’s May. That’s fun. It’s the best time of year, because you’ve dialed your game in all year long,” Hellebuyck said.
The Jets said they need to be better in front of their goalie on the road.
“It’s going to be a tough building. They grabbed home ice from us by winning Game 1,” Arniel said. “It’s [about] lessons learned. Take some of the things from that series. We know we have to do a lot of what we did tonight.”