Which clubs made the right calls? What should we believe (or not believe) about the rest of the baseball season? Now that the dust has settled from the 2023 MLB trade deadline, we asked our ESPN MLB experts to debate what’s real — and what’s not — moving forward.
Real or Not: The 2023 Angels are now legit contenders
Alden Gonzalez: Real. Look, I’m not going to sit here and pretend the Angels are world-beaters. Or even that they’re one of the six best teams in the American League. What I will tell you is that they have a chance. And to them, having a chance was enough to justify going all-in on a roster that many others consider inferior.
Before you trash them, consider the context: They had already decided not to trade Ohtani last summer. Then they decided not to trade Ohtani in the offseason. Then they vaulted their payroll to a franchise record in hopes of contending in what is potentially their final season with Ohtani. And when the trade deadline came around … they were still contending.
The Angels’ thinking can best be summarized this way: We’ve already gone this far. We might as well go all the way. Yes, there is a very real chance they miss the playoffs, then Ohtani leaves in free agency and the Angels come away with nothing more than a compensatory draft pick. Clearly, they’re more comfortable with that possibility than another grim alternative — Ohtani is traded, he makes a playoff run and wins an MVP with another team, and whatever chances the Angels had of signing him in free agency are whittled down to zero.
At present, the Angels aren’t good enough. But if Mike Trout gets back relatively soon … and Logan O’Hoppe rejoins the lineup … and Anthony Rendon finally gets healthy … well, they’re in this. And that’s all they wanted.
Bradford Doolittle: Not. The Angels began the day with a 10% shot at the postseason in my simulations. That, simply put, is why I can’t see them as legit contenders. The probabilities are too stacked against them getting into the playoffs.
That’s not to say that L.A. doesn’t have a playoff-quality roster. I think the Angels probably have one of the seven or eight best rosters in the AL. It’s also not to say that I think the Angels took the wrong approach at the deadline. I’m not sure I would advocate for such an aggressive approach for most 1-in-10 wannabe contenders, but the Shohei Ohtani situation makes this a special case.
If the Angels beat the odds and play into October and, somehow, that proves to be the tipping point in an eventual Ohtani free-agent decision to stay put, then obviously the decision to add is more than justified. I don’t know what the odds are that any of that will happen, but they aren’t zero. Given how great, unique, marketable and irreplaceable Ohtani is, I’m willing to roll the dice.
But the odds are the odds. The Angels are a solid team in an AL playoff field crowded with quality teams. They don’t have access to the AL Central crown. It’s just too steep a hill to climb.
Real or Not: The Mets were right to trade two future Hall of Fame pitchers in a three-day span
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What are the Mets getting in Drew Gilbert?
Kiley McDaniel details what the Mets are getting in Drew Gilbert, who they acquired from the Astros in the Justin Verlander trade.
Kiley McDaniel: Real. Scherzer had a year and a half left at $43.3 million per year while his performance this year is tracking to be worth about one-third of that. Accordingly, the Rangers are getting him for the rest of this year and all of next year for $22.5 million, roughly in line with the pitcher he’s been this year, with a chance he regains his form. In exchange, the Mets got shortstop Luisangel Acuna, who is a back-third of the Top 100 type of prospect, with an implied trade value of about $20 million-$25 million. Acuna is a likely shortstop with plus speed, a chance for 15-18 homers, and solid contact skills who will open next season in Triple-A. You can see the math broadly implying the Mets covered Scherzer’s deal to get Acuna’s controllable six years.
In the other big deal, Verlander hasn’t fallen off quite as much and also has a 2025 player option that could trigger if he throws 140 innings in 2024. The Mets are kicking in $35 million (more than half of what’s guaranteed in his deal) and would cover half of his player option if it vests. So the Mets are even more aggressively buying prospect value, and they got it in center fielder Drew Gilbert and right fielder Ryan Clifford. Two of the four breakout great values in the 2022 Astros draft, Gilbert is ahead of Acuna in the back-half of the Top 100 and Clifford is just behind Acuna, on the periphery of the Top 100. That’s about $35 million-$40 million in prospect value, again almost matching the money the Mets kicked in, and Gilbert is another player like Acuna who could be in the big leagues next year.
It’s never easy to trade Hall of Fame talents, but the Mets used this terrible season and their deep pockets to reload for their next contending team, which could be playing together in New York at this time next season.
David Schoenfield: Not. Is there a master plan here? Thanks to Steve Cohen’s fat wallet, they ended up more or less buying some good prospects by including tens of millions of cash in the two trades. The Mets are operating differently from any other team, running up a record-breaking payroll and tearing it all down after four months. They’ll have to replace Verlander and Scherzer in the rotation for next season if they want to compete, which will mean signing more free agents, and there’s no guarantee those starters will be any better than the two future Hall of Famers they just traded away (and who were hardly the team’s biggest problem this season). I’d say the other 29 owners are probably ticked off at the Mets, except the Mets are just another run-of-the-mill team with some decent prospects, a large payroll and an uncertain future.
Real or Not: Verlander’s Astros have passed Scherzer’s Rangers as the team to beat in the American League West
Gonzalez: Real. Every executive in the industry would probably tell you Verlander is a better pitcher now than Scherzer. When the Astros brought Verlander back on Tuesday, they were only half a game behind the Rangers — even though Yordan Alvarez had missed seven weeks and Jose Altuve had played in less than 35% of their games. They’re both healthy now. Jose Urquidy is on his way back, and the likes of Jose Abreu, Jeremy Pena and Rafael Montero should be better. This division is going to come down to what could be a really fun two months — and I’m riding with the team that has made six consecutive appearances in the American League Championship Series.
Jesse Rogers: Not. OK, so both teams added a good pitcher. Oh, wait, the Rangers got two good ones in Justin Verlander and Jordan Montgomery, and they’ve already led the division all season. They also have a manager who can match wins and experience with Dusty Baker. And they’re not going to experience any fatigue, considering they haven’t been to the postseason since 2016. All that mileage on the Astros might not prevent them from making the playoffs but it may slow them down in September. They’ve already had an inordinate amount of injuries and are bound to see some more. That’s what happens when you play deep into October every year. Every part of the Rangers can match the Astros in talent, though maybe not experience. Still, the new kids on the block will hold off the defending champs and win the AL West.
Real or Not: The Yankees are not going to make the playoffs after an underwhelming trade deadline
Gonzalez: Real. The Yankees’ approach to the trade deadline might be the most confusing of all, for one simple reason: status quo just wasn’t the answer. They either needed to add in order to vault themselves into contention or better situate themselves for 2024. As it stands, they’re simply not good enough. Of course, Aaron Judge helps a lot. And maybe Nestor Cortes and Jonathan Loaisiga can give that pitching staff a boost — but Cortes had a 5.16 ERA through his first 11 starts and Loaisiga has made three appearances all year. Worst of all, the offense that surrounds Judge is a complete eyesore, and they didn’t make it any better. But forget all that. Let’s just go through it: Are the Yankees better than the Rays or the Orioles? No. Are they better than the Rangers or the Astros? No. That’s four teams, plus the AL Central winner, leaving only one realistic playoff spot — and I think the Blue Jays are a far superior team. The Yankees might legitimately be the fifth-best team in their own division. It’s time we stop pretending otherwise.
Schoenfield: Not. You’re not going to suck me in and say the Yankees are going to miss the playoffs. No way. I know what’s going on. I see that .230 team batting average and Jake Bauers hitting leadoff and Anthony Rizzo hitting .170 since the beginning of June and Aaron Judge hobbling around on a bad toe and Domingo German missing a start because of an infected hair follicle, which is an injury so ridiculous you can’t even make it up. It’s all goofy and weird and it makes so many baseball fans so happy to see. It’s like the Yankees are re-living the era of Alvaro Espinoza and Oscar Azocar and Bye-Bye Balboni — the last time they finished in last place. But I know better. You should know better. Of course the Yankees will get hot and make the playoffs. I don’t know how, but it will happen. The Blue Jays will fade. The Red Sox have no pitching. The Angels or Mariners? Please. The Yankees will win that third wild card and, as they say, you just have to get in. Be prepared, baseball fans.
Real or Not: The going-for-it Cubs will win the National League Central
Schoenfield: Real. OK. OK. The Cubs are four games behind the Reds entering Wednesday’s critical game against Cincinnati, the third of a four-game series. They’re behind the Brewers. They are not the betting favorite with that deficit and two teams to leap over, but there’s this: They’ve been the best team in the division. Yes, I’m going to drop the run differential on you here: The Cubs are plus-67, the Reds are minus-7 and the Brewers are minus-14. The Reds have a lousy rotation and the Brewers have lousy hitting, while the Cubs have been pretty solid in both departments.
They do need to get Marcus Stroman back on track (2.28 ERA through June 20, 9.00 in seven starts since, including 13 runs in 6⅓ innings his past two outings). Justin Steele (12-3, 2.65 ERA) continues to pitch well, Kyle Hendricks continues to get the job done with his 87-mph sinker and Jameson Taillon has perhaps figured things out with a 1.78 ERA over his past four starts. That’s a good rotation if Stroman fixes what he says has been a mechanical issue that popped up when the team went to England for the London Series. The Cubs also added the best hitter to switch teams at the deadline in Jeimer Candelario, giving the Cubs even more flexibility with the lineup. Certainly, these games against the Reds are huge, and then the Cubs host the Braves, but after that comes a stretch where the Cubs can do some damage: Mets, Blue Jays, White Sox, Royals, Tigers and Pirates before a crucial six games against the Brewers and Reds in late August and early September. I feel a big stretch run coming on.
Rogers: Not. It’s not that the Cubs aren’t as good as Milwaukee or Cincinnati. They probably are. Maybe even better. It’s just that the math isn’t in their favor. Even being just five games behind those teams is enough to bet against the Cubs overtaking them. FanGraphs gives them a 15% chance — granted that was before factoring in the addition of Jeimer Candelario. Then again, the Brewers added as well, so perhaps there will be no real change in those odds. If Stroman and Drew Smyly — or even just one of them — find their game again, the Cubs will have a much better chance. But that’s assuming Taillon continues on a positive path and fatigue doesn’t catch up to Steele. Perhaps the same kinds of things can be said about a shaky Brewers squad — but they’re the team in front. For that reason, they get the edge.
FRISCO, Texas — A dynamic new quarterback, a new offensive system and two projected first-round picks up front have Utah coach Kyle Whittingham feeling enthusiastic about the Utes’ chances of bouncing back from a disastrous debut season in the Big 12.
Utah was voted No. 1 in the Big 12 preseason poll last year after joining from the Pac-12, but a brutal run of injuries and inconsistency resulted in a seven-game conference losing streak and a 5-7 finish — the program’s first losing season since 2013.
After weeks of contemplation about his future and what was best for the program, Whittingham, the third-longest-tenured head coach in FBS, decided in December to return for his 21st season with the Utes.
“The bottom line and the final analysis was I couldn’t step away on that note,” Whittingham told ESPN at Big 12 media days Wednesday. “It was too frustrating, too disappointing. As much as college football has changed with all the other factors that might pull you away, that was the overriding reason: That’s not us, that’s not who we are. It just left a bad taste in my mouth. I did not want to miss the opportunity to try to get that taste out.”
“The bottom line and the final analysis was I couldn’t step away on that note. It was too frustrating, too disappointing. … That’s not us. That’s not who we are. It just left a bad taste in my mouth. I did not want to miss the opportunity to try to get that taste out.”
Utah coach Kyle Whittingham on going 5-7 in 2024
Whittingham and Utes defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley conducted a national search for a new offensive coordinator and quickly zeroed in on New Mexico‘s Jason Beck. Then they managed to land Devon Dampier, Beck’s first-team All-Mountain West quarterback, via the transfer portal.
After finishing 11th nationally in total offense with 3,934 yards and 31 total touchdowns and putting up the fourth-most rushing yards (1,166) among all FBS starters, Dampier followed his coach to Salt Lake City and immediately asserted himself as a difference-maker for a program that had to start four different QBs in 2024.
“He’s a terrific athlete,” Whittingham said. “He’s a guy that, if spring is any indication, he’s an exciting player, and we can’t wait to watch him this season. … He’s got that ‘it’ factor. He’s a leader. Needless to say, very excited to see what he does for us.”
“We feel they’re the best tandem in the country,” Whittingham said. “The offensive line in general, I feel, it’s the best since I’ve been there. And that’s quite a statement. We’ve had some really good offensive lines. We’ve got two first-rounders and three seniors inside that have played a lot of good football for us. That better be a strength of ours, and that’s what we’re counting on.”
Whittingham has previously said he did not want to coach past the age of 65. Now that he’s 65, he acknowledges that he might’ve arrived at a different decision about his future had the Utes ended up winning the Big 12 in 2024. He is reenergized about getting them back into contention, but he’s not ready to say whether this season might be his last.
“The best answer I can give you is, right now, I’m excited and passionate about going to work every single day,” Whittingham said. “As soon as that changes, I’ll know it’s time. I’m just counting on knowing when the time is right. I can’t tell you exactly what the circumstances will be other than losing the fire in the belly.”
Jesse joined ESPN Chicago in September 2009 and covers MLB for ESPN.com.
The automated ball-strike system is coming to the All-Star Game next week in Atlanta.
MLB officials added the feature to the annual exhibition game knowing it could be a precursor to becoming a permanent part of the major leagues as soon as next year.
The same process used this past spring training will be used for the Midsummer Classic: Each team will be given two challenges with the ability to retain them if successful. Only a pitcher, catcher or hitter can ask for a challenge and it has to happen almost immediately after the pitch. The player will tap his hat or helmet indicating to the umpire he wants to challenge while any help from the dugout or other players on the field is not allowed.
MLB officials say 72% of fans who were polled during spring training said the impact of ABS on their experience at the game was a “positive” one. Sixty-nine percent said they’d like it part of the game moving forward. Just 10% expressed negativity toward it.
MLB’s competition committee will meet later this summer to determine if ABS will be instituted next season after the league tested the robotic system throughout the minor leagues and spring training in recent years. Like almost any rule change, there were mixed reviews from players about using ABS but nearly all parties agree on one point: They prefer a challenge system as opposed to the technology calling every pitch.
As was the case in spring training, once a review is initiated, an animated replay of the pitch will be shown on the scoreboard and the home plate umpire will either uphold the call or overturn it. ABS uses Hawk-Eye system technology which tracks the pitch trajectory and location in relation to the strike zone, providing an instant assessment which can be relayed to the home plate umpire.
The All-Star Game will be played at Truist Park in Atlanta on Tuesday.
The Kansas City Royals have signed former Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel to a minor league contract, the team announced Wednesday.
The 37-year-old left-hander will start at Triple-A Omaha and will earn a prorated $2 million salary if he reaches the big leagues, sources tell ESPN’s Jeff Passan.
Keuchel has not pitched in the majors for nearly a full calendar year. He elected to become a free agent on July 18, 2024, after being designated for assignment by the Milwaukee Brewers.
In four starts with the Brewers last season, Keuchel had a 5.40 ERA in 16 2/3 innings without a decision. In 13 major league seasons, the 2015 American League Cy Young winner with the Houston Astros is 103-92 with a 4.04 ERA in 282 appearances (267 starts).
After pitching his first seven seasons with the Astros, Keuchel has made appearances for six different teams since 2019. He won a World Series with Houston in 2017 and is a two-time All-Star selection and five-time Gold Glove winner.
Information from Field Level Media was used in this report.