‘Fire breathers only’: The story of UAB’s big gamble on Trent Dilfer
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Alex Scarborough, ESPN Staff Writer
BIRMINGHAM, Ala. — Trent Dilfer stands in his office doorway in late July, a cheerful grin and a firm handshake obscuring the faint redness in the corners of his eyes.
College football’s most outside-the-box new hire — who isn’t lacking for name recognition thanks to his time in the NFL and on television but whose actual coaching experience is limited to four years at a small private high school in Tennessee — doesn’t reach for his coffee once as he spends the next hour and a half excitedly laying out his vision for UAB football.
The College Football Playoff graphics dotting the walls around the facility might be too subtle a nod to Dilfer’s aspirations. The 51-year-old former quarterback talks about competing for titles out in the open and at full volume — bold for a program that has forever been defined by its limitations rather than the potential of what it could be if only it controlled its own destiny, if only it had more support, if only it had better resources.
Take the previous night’s return trip from American Athletic Conference media day in Texas. Dilfer says he could have easily thought, “Damn, this would have been so much better if we could have flown private.” They could have had an extra staff meeting, but no. “I was on an American Airlines flight with my players, sitting in TSA while [USF coach Alex Golesh] is on a private jet. I don’t give a s—. I’m here this morning. I got two hours sleep. No big deal. We’re going to crush it!”
Dilfer brings up Golesh’s transportation advantage again later and turns to his communications director. “He’s keeping track of all that stuff,” he says. All the little inequities. All the perceived slights they’ll remind players of during camp. Dilfer feeds off the stuff. It’s the essence of his origin story — how a kid from California’s Central Coast ended up going to Fresno State rather than USC or UCLA, how he went from first-round flop to Super Bowl champion.
He has a sign on his door that doubles as a staff mantra: “UAB football. No problems … only solutions!”
All Dilfer sees, for better or worse, are opportunities.
So when he heard nearly every coach stand up at AAC media day and complain about the impact of NIL and the transfer portal, he smiled. It was a reminder that his staff’s inexperience might double as its superpower. Let all those other coaches remain hopelessly in love with what college football used to be, Dilfer says. He and his assistants don’t know anything other than today’s turbulent landscape — “and that’s an advantage.”‘
“I love the challenges because with challenges come solutions,” Dilfer says. “How do you compete against a collective of $16 million when you have $100,000? We’re going to find a way. I’m not going to b—- about it. I’m not going to magically raise $16 million or $6 million. I don’t know if I’m going to raise $600,000. But we’re going to find ways to win.”
UAB has always required doing more with less. But the gap between the haves and have-nots is widening. And the best that can be said for the administration’s commitment to doing what it takes to remain competitive is: We’ll see. It took a massive donor-based fundraising effort to bring football back after it was shut down late in 2014, and momentum has long since fizzled.
Dilfer might have the personality to reignite that fire. He might see a way to something no one has before. Or he might be blinded by his own ambition.
We’ll see.
DILFER HAS A self-deprecating streak that’s disarming. He downplays his talent constantly; never mind he lasted 13 years in the NFL and made a Pro Bowl. He scoffs at the Deion Sanders comparison — another former pro who jumped into college with no experience. “We’re playing with a different deck of cards,” Dilfer says. Never mind the replica Lombardi Trophy in his office or the championship ring in his backpack. “There’s not one recruit coming here that knows anything about my career,” he says.
Sure. But there’s a reason UAB athletic director Mark Ingram went from being dead set against hiring a high school coach to bringing in Dilfer as maybe the most shocking move of the coaching carousel. Ingram says the difference was Dilfer’s NFL experience, his visibility on TV — including nearly a decade with ESPN — and his time as a coach with Elite 11, the annual quarterback camp.
During Dilfer’s introductory news conference, he wasn’t bashful about pointing out his own lack of qualifications: how he wasn’t well versed in the history of the program; how he was a high school coach at his core, skeptical of any college job; how “I’d be lying if I told you I know how to recruit at an elite level.”
“I will hire people that have figured out-ness,” he said. “Yes, I made up that word. I think I made it up on TV one night when I was tired at ESPN and people laughed. I want people that can figure stuff out.”
Don’t let the aw-shucks routine fool you. Dilfer, who took over Lipscomb Academy when it was 2-9 and finished his fourth season with back-to-back state championships, counts himself among the people who can figure stuff out. He actually spent the past few years toying with what a move to college would look like. That’s because, he admits now, he was in the mix for some jobs before.
“When I had to entertain a couple of these things, I had to … be prepared,” he says. “When I talk to a president, I don’t want to just be the ex-athlete who says, ‘I played football, I can go coach.’ I want to have a coach’s book. I want to have a shell staff put together. I want to have a philosophy. I want to have core values.
“So, yes, it came out of nowhere. But never at one point was I not prepared.”
He knew he couldn’t attract (or afford) position coaches or coordinators from the country’s top programs, so he did maybe the next best thing: He hired the coaches who supported them behind the scenes. He brought in Georgia analyst Eddie Gordon to coach the offensive line, South Carolina analyst Nick Coleman to coach quarterbacks and Ohio State analysts Reilly Jeffers and Miguel Patrick to coach tight ends and defensive linemen, respectively.
“Alex is obviously the golden jewel in that,” Dilfer says.
That would be Alex Mortensen, who is something of a deep-cut in football circles — the longtime Alabama analyst who had a prominent role in tutoring quarterbacks Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa, Mac Jones and Bryce Young. Many coaches tried and failed to lure Mortensen away from Nick Saban, but Dilfer succeeded by making the 37-year-old an offensive coordinator before he’d ever held an on-field coaching title in the FBS.
Dilfer then took something else from Alabama, replicating Saban’s army-sized support staff by hiring two quality control coaches for every position coach. Dilfer had only $2.5 million to spend on his staff, so to make up for the shortfall, he says, he contributed $500,000 of his own $1.3 million salary. Even then, he says, everyone had to accept making less than the going rate.
The result is what Dilfer calls a hybrid approach: a Power 5-style staff with Power 5 credentials, but a Group of 5 work ethic.
“You’d be an idiot not to know why Nick does some of the things he does,” he says. “I put Kirby [Smart] in that, I put Ryan [Day] in that, I put Chip Kelly in that, I put Lincoln [Riley] in that. There’s a handful of guys out there that are the very best of what they do. So you want to know kind of their why’s, but you also have to be realistic with where you’re at and making it your way there.
“Head coaches are probably the most overrated people in football right now, except for one thing: Who they hire. I couldn’t be more pleased with staff — the auxiliary staff, operations, the people I kept. You know, you surround yourself with great people and the rest kind of takes care of it itself, to be honest with you.”
There’s a phrase Dilfer likes to use on social media, which is etched on his office window: “Fire breathers only.” While it ties in nicely to UAB’s mascot — a dragon — not everyone on staff can offer an exact working definition. But it boils down to, If you’re not burning with passion, get out.
Mortensen’s all in. The appeal of recruiting the Southeast and working with Dilfer, whom he knew through the Elite 11, was too compelling to turn down.
“There are people that have visited us, they keep commenting on the energy,” Mortensen says. “And I know it’s a little bit subjective sometimes, but I think there’s something to it and I feel it myself.”
A lack of returning starters on offense is “daunting” and leveling up to the AAC won’t be easy, Mortensen says, but he’s careful to note that the program they inherited wasn’t in shambles.
“There’s a high ceiling, really good foundation. But I also acknowledge there’s a lot of work to be done.”
THE WEEK-AND-A-HALF long handoff from interim head coach Bryant Vincent to Dilfer could have been rough. Vincent, who was suddenly out of a job after hoping to be retained full-time, offered his office to Dilfer at first. But Dilfer said no, they’d share the space while Vincent prepared the team for the Bahamas Bowl.
So Vincent got the big desk and Dilfer roamed, sometimes using an end table to jot down notes, sometimes sitting on the couch with a computer on his lap quietly studying.
“It was awkward,” Dilfer says.
Vincent doesn’t disagree.
“As the days went, I grew to like Trent,” Vincent says. “We built a relationship where we still talk today.”
Dilfer credits Vincent for his graciousness in giving him the lay of the land — and for connecting him with former coach Bill Clark, who retired last summer following major back surgery. Clark had as much invested in UAB football as anyone, maybe more. He stayed on through the shutdown and built the program back into something unthinkable: a winner, complete with two conference titles (the only ones in school history) and five bowl berths (again, the only ones in school history at the time).
“What really happened is I don’t think Bill thought this was a very good hire,” Dilfer says.
That checks out.
“I think anybody that’s a coach believes there’s a lot that goes with experience, and obviously that was concerning,” Clark says, “I mean, I think anybody that saw the hire would say the same thing.”
Clark admits he was skeptical and uncomfortable with the idea of someone learning on the job. But he accepted Vincent’s introduction and came away from meeting Dilfer impressed by his intelligence and enthusiasm.
Whether he succeeds or not, Clark says, “I don’t think it’s going to be a lack of energy or effort or caring.”
Dilfer is unapologetic in how far he’s willing to go. For the second time in 48 hours, he says that if opposing coaches keep tampering with their players, he’s willing and ready to hand over evidence of the illegal contact they’ve made via social media apps. Matter of fact, he says he has a noon appointment with someone from the NCAA’s NIL working group to talk about it. He claims that other coaches haven’t spoken up because they’re afraid of being blackballed and losing out on the next high-paying job. “I’m highly ambitious to make this a special place,” he says, “but I don’t have ambition beyond this.”
Time will tell how true that is.
Time will tell how good a tactician Dilfer is. The same can be said for his ability as a recruiter. His staff isn’t exactly loaded with coaches who have long-standing connections to Alabama high schools. UAB has eight commits, according to 247Sports, and none are from in-state (whereas 60 players on the current roster are). But it’s early and those connections can still be forged.
Then there’s the unmovable elephant in the room, which is literal in the case of the University of Alabama and its ivory-tusked mascot. As the flagship institution in the University of Alabama System, the Crimson Tide practically have a blank check while the Blazers — part of that same system — pinch pennies. Past coaches have come into the job on fire only to end up worn down by the constant struggle for basic necessities, whether it’s paying for players’ extra summer school credit hours or getting stipend checks on time.
Dilfer isn’t naive to those realities, but he hasn’t had to live them day in and day out yet. The hope among former staff is that athletic director Ingram will go to bat for Dilfer in a way that he didn’t for Clark, whom he didn’t hire, and Vincent, whom he had no choice but to accept as interim coach after Clark’s one-two punch of retiring so close to the start of the season and then taking it upon himself to name Vincent as his replacement.
Dilfer has tried to rally important stakeholders to his corner. He says he had to win over “Bill’s guys” early on — the core group of boosters who helped resurrect the program — some of whom he rattles off by name: Tommy Brigham, Hatton Smith and Craft O’Neal.
Moments before this interview, Dilfer hosted former UAB player and Athletics Foundation board member Justin Craft in his office for some face-to-face time.
“I’ll take on the fragility of what this place has been through,” Dilfer says. “But I don’t want [coaches] to worry about it because then it could get into a lot of problems — you could get into instead of challenges, problems. You could get into the whining, the complaining, the woe is me instead of looking forward.
“To a fault, I don’t have a rearview mirror. What I do have is a sense of history.”
There’s another distinction Dilfer makes.
“You can be aware of what’s behind you, but you’re not staring into it, being consumed with it.”
?: All-Access with Head Coach Trent Dilfer at the UAB Spring Game#WinAsOne | @DilfersDimes pic.twitter.com/MDwLJZLFZG
— UAB Football (@UAB_FB) April 7, 2023
DILFER IS CAREFUL when he describes the current state of UAB football. What he’s doing, he says, is not a rebuild. That would be a discredit to what Clark and Vincent accomplished — the games they won and the players they recruited. The physical infrastructure is already in place, including a new football facility and downtown stadium.
What Dilfer’s doing, he says, is more akin to a remodel. He wants to change the vibe of the place — how it looks and feels, and what it dares to accomplish.
The roster has turned over some since Dilfer took the reins. But on a scale of 1 to Deion Sanders, the 22 total transfers out of the program is relatively modest. Dilfer and his staff brought in 16 transfers, 12 of which have spent time at Power 5 programs.
Former Baylor quarterback Jacob Zeno figures to be the Week 1 starter. Together with Mortensen, Dilfer says they’re going to run stuff on offense that no one is prepared for. Zeno expects much more of an emphasis on the passing game than in years past, with a mix of outside zone, run-pass option and traditional drop-back passes.
“My expectation is like everybody else in the building — coaches, players — is to win every game,” Zeno says.
UAB received the eighth-most points in the AAC preseason media poll of its 14 member schools. So maybe a conference title is a ways off.
Asked exactly how good he believes they’ll be this season, Dilfer says, “I don’t have a crystal ball.”
But what he does have is the kind of enthusiasm that makes you forget he’s operating on just two hours sleep.
“Winners are about it, they don’t talk about it,” he says. “When you leave this office, I will do something to help us win. On the plane yesterday, I was doing something to help us win. On vacation, I was doing stuff to help us win. I have 48 staffers in this building and every single day they’re doing something to help us win. Now, they’re not talking about it, they’re actually doing it. That’s not true in every building. That’s not true in the NFL. That’s why you have the haves and the have-nots in the NFL. The people that win every moment of every single day, they’re doing something that when you add up the cumulative effect, it’s going to pour gasoline on your progression of winning.
“I’m trusting that process. We do winning things around here nonstop.”
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David Schoenfield
The early returns from the MLB trade deadline are filtering in. The dog days of August are challenging pitching staffs. The Boston Red Sox are humming, the New York Yankees are stumbling and the New York Mets might be crumbling. Yes, it’s going to be a fun stretch drive.
How do the postseason races stand? Let’s break down the contenders into playoff tiers.
Tier I: The locks
Biggest surprise: Andrew Vaughn has been raking since coming over from the White Sox in a trade in which Chicago was clearing him off its roster. Rhys Hoskins might return from the injured list later this month, but Vaughn has hit so well that Hoskins has likely been Wally Pipp-ed and relegated to part-time DH duty (depending on how often Christian Yelich can play the outfield). Vaughn has — so far — provided some much-needed power, which had been the Brewers’ only weakness.
Injury to watch: Hard-throwing rookie Jacob Misiorowski is out because of a shin contusion but should be back soon, and the Brewers probably welcomed the break to limit his innings anyway. So keep an eye on Jackson Chourio, who is likely out a couple more weeks because of a strained hamstring. Chourio had been red-hot in July, with an OPS over 1.000 before hitting the IL.
Player to watch: Brandon Woodruff. The one-time Brewers ace hadn’t pitched since September 2023 before finally returning in July and has delivered six excellent starts with a 2.29 ERA, 45 strikeouts and just six walks.
His fastball velocity isn’t where it was before his shoulder injury, but Woodruff has been locating where he wants, as batters are hitting .111 against his four-seamer and .156 against his sinker. A playoff rotation with Freddy Peralta, Woodruff, Misiorowski and Quinn Priester, who has won 10 consecutive decisions, looks like one that could deliver the Brewers their first World Series title.
Biggest surprise: Well, there are two ways to look at this. The Dodgers are in the bottom half of the majors in ERA with Yoshinobu Yamamoto their only starter who has been in the rotation all season. Sitting in first place despite those injury issues can be viewed as a pleasant surprise. Or maybe it’s a bad surprise that a team that was a huge favorite to run away with the National West has to fight for the division title.
The Dodgers have essentially used a six-man rotation all season, with pitchers making just seven starts on four days of rest. Yamamoto hasn’t started on all four days of rest all season. With the Dodgers battling the Padres for the division crown, will manager Dave Roberts go to a five-man rotation? What about in the postseason, when four days of rest is generally the norm if you want to use just your top four starters?
Injury to watch: Just one? While the rotation is slowly getting healthier (Blake Snell is back), late-game relievers Tanner Scott (elbow) and Kirby Yates (back) are on the IL.
Player to watch: With Mookie Betts seemingly mired in seasonlong mediocrity, the Dodgers will need Freddie Freeman to heat up again. The first baseman was hitting .374 with a 1.078 OPS through May but then hit .226 with just two home runs in June and July. In late July, he said he fixed something in his swing, and he hit .400 with three home runs in his first 14 games after that proclamation. If Freeman is back, the offense might be the best in the majors again.
Biggest surprise: The Blue Jays were 26-28 on May 27 but have the second-best record in the majors since, and journeyman starter Eric Lauer has been a key reason. After not pitching in the majors in 2024 and finishing the season in Korea, he joined the rotation for good on June 11 and has gone 5-1 with a 3.16 ERA since then, with the Jays winning nine of his 11 starts.
Injury to watch: The Jays signed Anthony Santander to a five-year, $92.5 million contract after a 44-homer season with the Orioles, but he has been out since May 29 because of a shoulder injury and hit just .179 before that. Getting back a productive Santander would help boost an outfield that has been mix-and-match all season.
Player to watch: The Blue Jays acquired Shane Bieber from Cleveland at the trade deadline, getting a pitcher still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. He should have two more rehab starts before he’s ready to join the rotation — and the Blue Jays will be counting on him to be in the playoff rotation.
Depending on how Bieber performs, it wouldn’t be shocking for him to leapfrog Jose Berrios and Kevin Gausman as the Game 1 starter. Lauer and Max Scherzer will be in that mix, with Chris Bassitt hanging around as well. That rotation depth is why the Jays rate as the heavy favorite to win the division — and at the minimum look like a playoff lock.
Biggest surprise: Everyone knew about Pete Crow-Armstrong‘s defense, but certainly nobody expected him to hit for this kind of power and turn into an MVP candidate in his first full season. He’s doing it despite the highest swing rate in the majors, which gives him one of the worst chase rates. He would have the lowest OBP for an MVP winner. Still, he had his highest monthly batting average (.308) and slugging percentage (.637) in July, although he’s slumping in August.
Injury to watch: The big one was Justin Steele going down for the season because of Tommy John surgery. Jameson Taillon is still out because of a calf strain. The Cubs acquired Michael Soroka at the deadline to help the rotation, but he lasted two innings in his first start before going down because of a sore shoulder, and his availability the rest of the season is unknown.
Player to watch: Rookie starter Cade Horton is emerging as a force. He joined the rotation in May and had a 4.80 ERA through his first two months but has allowed no runs in five of his past six starts, including his past four in a row. Coming off an injury-plagued 2024, the Cubs are being very conservative with the 23-year-old’s pitch counts (fewer than 90 pitches in his past four outings), but he has been efficient enough to give them five or six innings.
Some of Horton’s peripheral numbers — so-so strikeout rate, not a ton of swing-and-miss — don’t necessarily match up with all the zeros, but he’s limiting hard contact. With Soroka out, Horton is vital to the Cubs’ hopes of running down the Brewers in the NL Central.
Biggest surprise: Kyle Schwarber hitting a lot of home runs is hardly a surprise — he has reached 40 three times — but Schwarber as a potential MVP candidate? That wasn’t on anyone’s preseason scorecard. OK, maybe that’s still a long shot given that Crow-Armstrong’s all-around value gives the Cubs outfielder a big edge in WAR and Shohei Ohtani is now pitching to go with his Schwarber-like offensive numbers. Still, Schwarber looks unstoppable at the plate right now and leads the NL in home runs and RBIs as his OPS inches closer to 1.000.
Injury to watch: Aaron Nola has been on the 60-day IL with a stress fracture in his right rib and has made a couple of rehab starts, so he should be returning to the rotation soon. The Phillies haven’t really missed him because of their pitching depth, but a healthy Nola will bump Taijuan Walker from the rotation, plus he could leap over Jesus Luzardo as the fourth starter in the playoff rotation.
Player to watch: Trea Turner hit well for three months to begin the season but went homerless in July, and his OBP dropped way off. At his best, he’s an offensive force who hits for average and some power while setting the table for Bryce Harper and Schwarber behind him. He can also have spells when he starts chasing too much and the offense dries up. The Phillies are a lock to get in, but they need the best version of Turner down the stretch to hold off the Mets in the NL East.
Tier II: Should get in
What they need to do to become a lock: The Tigers seemed like a lock when they held a 14-game lead in the American League Central before the All-Star break while playing like the best team in baseball. Then they lost 12 out of 13 games, and Cleveland got hot. The Guardians are at least close enough to put a little fear in the Tigers.
The lineup scuffled in July, but the bullpen still feels like the key here. The Tigers are 19th in the majors in bullpen ERA and 28th in reliever strikeout rate. It’s not good when you’re ranked with the Nationals and Rockies. They added some reinforcements at the trade deadline, but Kyle Finnegan and Rafael Montero aren’t solutions.
Injury to watch: The Tigers signed Alex Cobb to a one-year, $15 million contract in the offseason, but the 37-year-old right-hander has yet to pitch in the majors this season because of hip inflammation. After his first rehab stint was cut short in June, he’s trying to get healthy enough to provide a boost to the rotation.
The Tigers traded for Charlie Morton and Chris Paddack, but Cobb could be in the same scenario he was with Cleveland last season, when he made just three regular-season starts but was in the playoff rotation.
Player to watch: It has been an odd season for Riley Greene, whose strikeout rate is over 32% and whose walk rate has plummeted from last season (11% to 6%). The home run and RBI numbers are there, although he has been in a deep slump since the All-Star break. Can he be consistent enough to lead the Detroit offense and deliver in crunch time, or will the better pitchers in the postseason exploit his swing-and-miss tendencies?
What they need to do to become a lock: In 2022, the Padres made the biggest splash at the trade deadline, acquiring Juan Soto and Josh Hader and eventually reaching the NLCS. This deadline, general manager A.J. Preller was again on a mission, trading top prospect Leo De Vries to acquire Athletics closer Mason Miller to strengthen what was already perhaps the game’s best bullpen. Preller also filled some holes in the lineup with the additions of Ryan O’Hearn, Ramon Laureano and Freddy Fermin.
The Padres have the deepest bullpen and a deeper lineup. Will that be enough to cover their lack of power (next to last in the majors in home runs) and a middle-of-the-pack rotation (getting Dylan Cease on a roll would be nice)? Maybe. But it’s clear that to not just lock up that playoff spot but also chase down the Dodgers in the NL West, Padres manager Mike Shildt will have to ride those bullpen arms.
Injury to watch: On Saturday, Michael King made his first start since May 18 after being out with a pinched nerve in his shoulder. If King is at full health, having him and Nick Pivetta lead the rotation would pair nicely with that loaded bullpen.
Player to watch: Second-year center fielder Jackson Merrill hasn’t replicated his rookie power numbers, and his OBP cratered in July, when he hit .196/.262/.304. The early returns are better this month, and though the Padres upgraded their offensive depth, they need Merrill to be a force.
New York Mets
What they need to do to become a lock: It’s not so easy to buy your way into the playoffs, is it? The Mets correctly upgraded a struggling bullpen by adding Ryan Helsley, Tyler Rogers and Gregory Soto, but now it’s the offense that is going through some rough times. Despite adding Juan Soto and getting a much better season from Pete Alonso (he has already surpassed last year’s RBI total), the Mets are scoring fewer runs per game than in 2024.
The Mets were 21-10 at the end of April with a plus-54 run differential. Since then, they’ve gone 42-45 with a minus-24 run differential. Soto, Alonso, Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo have scuffled of late, and Soto has been terrible all season with runners in scoring position (.190/.331/.360). There’s too much talent here for the Mets to miss the playoffs.
Injury to watch: Tylor Megill, out with an elbow sprain, is the one injured player who could return and help, whether in the rotation or the bullpen.
Player to watch: Soto. It’s time for him to put the team on his back.
Tier III: Have work to do
How they make the playoffs: Hit better with runners in scoring position. The trade deadline additions of Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez, plus the gradual improvement of rookie Cole Young and the surprising production from Dominic Canzone, have made this one of the deeper lineups in the league. The Mariners rank 10th in OPS and second in road OPS — but they’re just 24th in OPS with runners in scoring position.
Injury to watch: Bryce Miller (elbow inflammation) has made two rehab starts. He threw four scoreless innings in the first outing but served up three home runs in the second. His fastball velocity was sitting at 96. He could be in line for two more starts before potentially replacing Logan Evans in the rotation — and giving the Mariners their projected five-man group for the first time all season.
Player to watch: Naylor was acquired for his bat, not his legs, but he is running like Rickey Henderson since joining the M’s, swiping 10 bases in his first 13 games — pretty remarkable for a player who ranks in the third percentile of all players in running speed. He left Thursday’s game because of some discomfort after a swing, but the Mariners said it’s likely just a day-to-day situation.
Boston Red Sox
How they make the playoffs: Keep pitching like they have. While going 24-10 since June 30, the Red Sox have a 3.08 ERA. Garrett Crochet has led the way and is now toe-to-toe with Tarik Skubal in the AL Cy Young race, but Lucas Giolito is also 7-1 with a 2.43 ERA over his past 11 starts and Brayan Bello is 5-2 with a 2.42 ERA since July 1.
Injury to watch: Though he’s not on the IL, closer Aroldis Chapman left a game in late July because of back tightness. He has allowed one earned run over his past 32 innings, so keeping the 37-year-old healthy is vital.
Player to watch: Rookie outfielder Roman Anthony just signed an eight-year, $130 million extension (escalators could bring the total value up to $230 million). Though the 21-year-old has shown precocious plate discipline that suggests the bright future the Red Sox are banking on, his home run power hasn’t shown up yet, in part because he’s still hitting a lot of balls on the ground. He’s already good, but maybe he’ll be great down the stretch.
How they make the playoffs: Have Carlos Correa turn back the clock. In a shocking trade deadline deal, the Astros reacquired their former shortstop to play third base with Isaac Paredes injured. Correa was having a poor season with the Twins, with the worst OPS of his career, although he has hit better in his first week with the Astros. With an offense that has been forced to play a lot of Triple-A fillers because of injuries, Correa could provide a huge boost.
Injury to watch: Will Yordan Alvarez make it back? The superstar DH has played just 29 games, none since May 2, because of a right hand fracture. He has been taking batting practice in Florida. Meanwhile, Paredes remains out because of a serious hamstring injury, choosing rehab with the hope of returning this season. Center fielder Jake Meyers is still rehabbing a calf strain.
Player to watch: The Astros have struggled to fill the rotation behind Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez because of the injuries. Spencer Arrighetti just returned from the 60-day IL and allowed 11 hits and five runs in 3⅔ innings. He had a strong second half last season, so the Astros would love for him to step up as a strong No. 3 starter.
New York Yankees
How they make the playoffs: Hit better. Field better. Pitch better. Run the bases better. The Yankees are 20-31 since June 13, losing 10 games in the standings and dropping from first to third place.
It has been a comedy of errors at times, but, at the minimum, they need the bullpen to figure things out. The Yankees rank in the bottom third of the majors in bullpen win probability added. Maybe David Bednar‘s five-out save the other day will at least settle down the closer situation, as he’s likely to take over that role from Devin Williams.
Injury to watch: Aaron Judge is back from the flexor strain in his elbow that sidelined him for 10 days, although still serving only as a DH. It shouldn’t affect his offense, but the Yankees would love to get him back on the field defensively so they can use Giancarlo Stanton, who had been hot, as the DH. Stanton is unplayable on defense, so he’s limited to pinch-hitting duties with Judge occupying the DH spot.
Player to watch: If Judge is producing, the Yankees will score. The bullpen has the talent to get hot down the stretch. But suddenly, the rotation has some concerns as well. Carlos Rodon has walked 15 over his past 20 innings across four starts. Even going back to June 8, his ERA is just 4.50 after a great first two months. Is he a reliable No. 2 starter behind Max Fried?
Tier IV: The long shots
How do they get in? Continue to ride Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob deGrom in the rotation, figure out the closer situation and have the offense keep hitting like it did in July, when it was better than it had been all season.
Journeyman Robert Garcia had been closing of late, but he gave up two critical home runs to the Mariners last weekend and now that role is once again in flux. The Rangers are done with the Mariners, but their six remaining games against the Astros loom large.
How do they get in? The Guardians looked out of it when they were 40-48 in early July, with the Tigers seemingly running away with the division. But Cleveland has gone 21-8 since then, and the upcoming schedule is pretty soft as they finish this series against the White Sox and then play the Marlins, Braves and Diamondbacks.
Six games against the Tigers in September means the AL Central might not be decided until then. The offense, hitting just .224 through July 6, has averaged more than five runs per game since then, with a lot more of the timely hitting we saw last season. It helps that Jose Ramirez got hot right at that time.
Tier V: The really long shots
How do they get in? They’re the seventh team in a race where only six teams get in, so they’ll need to get some help, which the Mets seem to be accommodating right now. But the Reds also need to get the rotation back in a groove.
After posting a 3.69 ERA in April and 3.17 in May, the rotation ERA rose to 4.52 in June and 4.16 in July, but there are some positive developments. Hunter Greene is about ready to return from his rehab, and Zack Littell had a terrific first start with the Reds after coming over in a deadline deal, allowing one run in seven innings with a season-high 15 swing-and-misses.
How do they get in? If the Reds need a little help, the Giants will need a lot of help. They blew up the bullpen, which had been the strength of the team, by trading Tyler Rogers and Camilo Doval, so we’ll see whether they have enough depth there. Same with the rotation. With Landen Roupp injured and Hayden Birdsong demoted to the minors, the rotation features recent call-ups Carson Whisenhunt and Kai-Wei Teng. Justin Verlander has reeled off three good starts in a row, although each was limited to five innings. They’ll need those three to pitch well behind Logan Webb and Robbie Ray.
How do they get in? In the American League, anything still feels possible. Just look at last year, when the Tigers were already buried at this point, only to reel off an improbable run to the postseason. The Royals would need to leap past three teams to get a wild card, but if the Yankees keep fading, all it would take is a little hot streak to jump past Texas and Cleveland as well.
The Royals will have to score more runs, but the offense had its best month, and it has had a few big offensive games in August. Bobby Witt Jr. has had another strong season, but what if he really heats up like he did last July and August?
How do they get in? They’ve run hot and cold all season, going 16-12 in May and 17-10 in June before stumbling to 7-18 in July. The key will be the offense, which scored 151 runs in June but just 98 in July. Junior Caminero saw his OPS drop 150 points; Jonathan Aranda dropped over 100 points and then fractured his wrist; Brandon Lowe got injured and had just two RBIs in nine games (he’s back now); and Josh Lowe hit .186. The odds are slim, but we’ve learned to never count out the Rays.
How do they get in? The starting pitching will have to improve, as the Cardinals rank 25th in rotation ERA and 29th in strikeout rate. That suggests improvement — at least enough to produce a late surge — is unlikely. Oh, the offense also tanked in July.
It looks as if it will be a third straight season without making the playoffs. No wonder attendance has declined to its lowest per-game average since 1995 (not including 2021) and because that was the post-strike year, the lowest in a non-strike-affected year since 1984.
How do they get in? When the Marlins swept the Yankees last weekend to climb to .500, they momentarily offered a glimpse of hope, climbing six games out of a wild card. Then they lost three of four, so their playoff odds have dipped back to around 1%. You never know, of course, and maybe Sandy Alcantara will suddenly reel off eight Cy Young-caliber starts in a row.
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