How Florida State can help itself — and the ACC — with a breakthrough this year
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Andrea Adelson, ESPN Senior Writer
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Florida State athletic director Michael Alford picks up a thick white binder in his office, one that he keeps with him at all times for reference. He calls it a “living, breathing document,” one that has pages and pages of financial models, valuations and projections for his athletic department all the way through 2043.
When he says both Florida State and the ACC are facing an insurmountable revenue gap with the SEC and Big Ten, he can point to the spreadsheets. His concerns have been aired both privately and publicly. Florida State has been the most vocal school in the ACC about this revenue gap and also what that gap could mean for FSU’s long-term future in the league.
Florida State’s vocal approach has been strategic — and has coincided with what is expected to be its best football season in nearly a decade. Ten years removed from its last national championship, No. 8 Florida State knows there is no turning back — both from its very public demands for more money and the on-field stakes for the team and the conference when it plays No. 5 LSU on Sunday night in Orlando (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC).
This, of course, presents an interesting contrast. The ACC needs Florida State to be good to change its own football narrative and help close the revenue gap with the SEC and Big Ten. But a championship-contending Florida State could have the leverage to leave the ACC when another seismic shift in conference realignment arrives.
“We haven’t been shy about letting everyone know that we are looking at all of our options,” Alford said during a recent interview with ESPN. “You know that Malcolm Gladwell book, ‘The Tipping Point?’ What are our tipping points over the next 10 years, next 15 years? What contracts come to play that are going to impact us? We’re not making a decision for next month, next year. We’re looking five, 10, 20 years down the road, to make sure that we make the best decisions for Florida State.”
To say football success is critical is an understatement. Now in Year 4, coach Mike Norvell has worked to turn around a program that was in decline when he arrived. After starting 3-10 in his first 13 games, Norvell faced questions about the direction Florida State was headed, but he never wavered in his belief that he and his staff would get the Seminoles back on track.
Rebuilding the foundation of the program through hard work, discipline and culture was just the first step. Norvell has also used the transfer portal to fill holes across the roster, and those transfer additions — from defensive end Jermaine Johnson to safety Jammie Robinson to running back Trey Benson and defensive end Jared Verse — have played a huge role in getting Florida State to its current preseason top-10 ranking.
Beating eventual SEC West champion LSU to start last season helped get Florida State to its first 10-win season since 2016. But their meeting this time around comes with far loftier expectations for both programs, considering how much their respective fortunes have changed over the span of one year — from serious question marks to serious playoff contenders.
Florida State goes into the matchup having won six straight to close 2022. More importantly, the Seminoles return the bulk of their offensive and defensive production, including quarterback Jordan Travis — a Heisman contender — leading rusher Trey Benson, top receiver Johnny Wilson and projected first-round pick Jared Verse at defensive end. In all, Florida State returns 77 players from last season, but Norvell once again used the transfer portal to add several players who will start against the Tigers, including receiver Keon Coleman (Michigan State), defensive tackle Braden Fiske (Western Michigan) and cornerback Fentrell Cypress II (Virginia).
“I believed in where we were going even when nobody else maybe did,” Norvell told ESPN. “I had a group of players that believed in where we were going, maybe when nobody else did. So now that we’re at this point, there’s still that belief. I think you see a program that’s on the ascent.”
Norvell has benefitted from both a shift in priorities over the past two years and better financial standing. University president Richard McCullough was hired in August 2021, and he then hired Alford four months later to run the athletic department.
Alford had spent the previous 15 months working as CEO and president of Seminole Boosters — the primary fundraising arm of the Florida State athletic department. When he arrived in Tallahassee in 2020, Florida State was at a crossroads not only for the football program but for the entire department.
The football program was struggling to win games and sell tickets and was on its third head coach since 2017. Then COVID-19 hit and an athletic department that was already cash-strapped was forced to make cuts — 20% to its operating budget, including a nearly $1 million salary reduction for Norvell over 2020 and 2021. A project to build a standalone football facility had stalled and Florida State was stuck paying an $18 million buyout to coach Willie Taggart, fired before the 2019 season ended. More investment was needed in football.
Alford worked on fundraising through Seminole Boosters to start making football investment a priority again. During his time with the Boosters, 2,000 members were added, and he raised $15 million to go toward the football facility, which is expected to be completed in 2025.
“If you look at programs like Clemson, we were lagging behind some of the top programs and so we made all those investments in football and with the idea that we have to win,” McCullough told ESPN.
Alford and his staff have raised nearly $221 million over the past three years. A large portion has gone directly into football — including a bigger assistant coach salary pool, more staff positions, renovations to the locker room and weight room and giving Norvell a hefty pay raise. Norvell is now scheduled to make $8.05 million per year — more than double what he made during the pandemic.
Alford has plans to renovate Doak Campbell Stadium to make it more of a revenue driver and he is still finalizing details with a private equity firm that has been consulting with Alford since he became AD on a wide variety of topics, including stadium pricing, suites, hospitality, concessions and merchandising.
That firm is co-founded by Jerry Jones, owner of the Dallas Cowboys. Alford worked with the Cowboys from 2008 to 2012 as senior director of corporate partnerships and sales and was part of the team that helped sell AT&T Stadium, which opened in 2009.
“If you get someone who wants to work hard, and is smart, usually good things follow, and I think that is the definition of Michael,” said Jerry Jones Jr., who worked closely with Alford in Dallas. “When you think about the persistent work ethic, the salesmanship, but also the smarts to get something accomplished.”
With investment and fundraising efforts in football ramped up, Alford and McCullough also began working on where Florida State fits in the national picture. Major conference realignment had already begun, with Texas and Oklahoma announcing in July 2021 they would join the SEC — leaving schools like Florida State to evaluate its future.
Florida State has spent about $750,000 hiring media, revenue and financial consultants and a group of lawyers to help the in-house legal counsel take a look at the current ACC grant of rights — which gives the league control over broadcast rights and television dollars through 2036.
The Seminoles are not alone in parsing over the document — Clemson, North Carolina, Miami, Virginia, Virginia Tech and NC State discussed moving forward from the grant of rights with FSU — but they have been the most vocal about the long-term health of the ACC considering a looming $30 million annual revenue gap with the Big Ten and SEC.
That is a change in approach from previous athletic directors, who preferred to say little publicly and were not nearly as aggressive in positioning Florida State for long-term success.
“I let my stance be known and I let expectations be known,” Alford said. “It’s really not being shy. It’s just saying we have an issue. As a conference, we have an issue and we need to address it. I need to address it on behalf of Florida State. We need to continue to push the envelope and push the envelope with a sense of urgency.”
When the Seminoles joined the league and began playing football in 1992, they were at the height of their success under coach Bobby Bowden. Their success (national titles in 1993 and 1999, along with nine straight ACC championships) gave the basketball-first ACC much needed credibility on the football field. But the Seminoles also questioned whether the ACC would ever make football a priority.
To that end, speculation engulfed the program in 2012 during a wave of conference realignment that saw the Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC make changes to their membership. Florida State was rumored to be looking at the Big 12. Comments made in May 2012 are eerily similar to those made over the past several months. Then-coach Jimbo Fisher said during ACC spring meetings, “TV revenue is big. That’s what’s changed the landscape of college athletics, in particular college football.”
In the months that followed, then-ACC commissioner John Swofford flew to Tallahassee and met individually with the university president and board members about signing a grant of rights agreement, as a way to keep the league together for the long term. The ACC had lost Maryland to the Big Ten and could not afford to lose Florida State, too.
Believing it was in the university’s best interest to sign, then-president Eric Barron did so in 2013, but a portion of the fan base was unhappy with the decision.
Three years later, that grant of rights was extended even further with the addition of the ACC Network to the ESPN television deal and would go through 2036. Florida State willingly signed both times, a point multiple ACC insiders make when discussing the angst the Seminoles have publicly shared about closing the looming revenue gap.
They also point out what has happened to Florida State since 2016 — a dip in the football program that they believe has done nothing to help enhance the value of ACC football. Between 2017 to 2021, Florida State only had one winning season.
“They just haven’t been very good,” one insider said. “That hasn’t helped us any.”
Alford likes to counter that argument with numbers. Despite being down, Florida State averaged 3.09 million viewers from 2014 to 2021, leading all ACC schools. Last year, two of Florida State’s regular-season games had more than 3 million viewers, and its bowl game against Oklahoma was the second-most viewed ACC postseason game behind the Orange Bowl between Clemson and Tennessee.
To that end, Alford wants a change to the revenue sharing model when it comes to television distribution. Currently, that money is divided up evenly among all league schools. Alford believes it should be weighted on brand, marketability and ratings. It is an argument he has not won yet, but he will keep making it in the hopes that there will be change.
That of course, leads to questions about what the next play is for Florida State. There does not appear to be another landing spot at the moment in either the Big Ten and SEC, as both conferences have made clear. There also is the matter of challenging the grant of rights in court and a $120 million exit fee. On Friday, the ACC added Stanford, Cal and SMU, a move that will provide more money to existing members. But Florida State was one of three schools to vote against the additions, believing it did not address the long-term revenue issues.
“It’s not that we’re unhappy in the ACC,” Alford said. “If that narrative’s out there, it’s not correct. It’s a great conference. It represents greatness in athletics. But when you look at the resources that are needed to continue to provide those winning edge resources for our coaches and student-athletes, that’s where the points need to be looked at, and that’s what we’re doing.”
The ACC knows it needs the Seminoles onboard for its own long-term prospects. This football season happens to come at a crucial time for both the league and Florida State.
Though the ACC is second behind the SEC in total College Football Playoff appearances, the league has not had a CFP contender since Clemson made it in 2020. Florida State has not made the CFP since 2014. Having both those schools ranked in the preseason top 10 is a huge starting point for a league fighting a narrative that football does not measure up.
“We have to get off to a really good start,” ACC commissioner Jim Phillips said during ACC media days in Charlotte. “It doesn’t negate having a really good season, if you don’t, but if you stumble once or twice it’s really difficult to overcome that. Florida State and Clemson getting a lot of opportunities, I think we have a bunch of others that can also get off to a good start and show that the league is a really, really good football league.”
Florida State begins that quest Sunday night, knowing full well its moves over the past year will mean more scrutiny — but an even bigger opportunity not only for this season, but down the line.
“Yes, there’s going to be a lot of eyes,” Norvell said. “You’re on a grand stage. When you come to a program that’s in the national spotlight, you come to a program like Florida State, it’s only going to be magnified. That’s what these guys have chosen to do. I like embracing it. Nothing’s guaranteed but if you’re willing to work, it makes the journey so much more enjoyable and rewarding because of all the experiences.”
HONOLULU — Los Angeles Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani and his agent, Nez Balelo, moved to dismiss a lawsuit filed last month accusing them of causing a Hawaii real estate investor and broker to be fired from a $240 million luxury housing development on the Big Island’s Hapuna Coast.
Ohtani and Balelo were sued Aug. 8 in Hawaii Circuit Court for the First Circuit by developer Kevin J. Hayes Sr. and real estate broker Tomoko Matsumoto, West Point Investment Corp. and Hapuna Estates Property Owners, who accused them of “abuse of power” that allegedly resulted in tortious interference and unjust enrichment.
Hayes and Matsumoto had been dropped from the development deal by Kingsbarn Realty Capital, the joint venture’s majority owner.
In papers filed Sunday, lawyers for Ohtani and Balelo said Hayes and Matsumoto in 2023 acquired rights for a joint venture in which they owned a minority percentage to use Ohtani’s name, image and likeness under an endorsement agreement to market the venture’s real estate development at the Mauna Kea Resort. The lawyers said Ohtani was a “victim of NIL violations.”
“Unbeknownst to Ohtani and his agent Nez Balelo, plaintiffs exploited Ohtani’s name and photograph to drum up traffic to a website that marketed plaintiffs’ own side project development,” the lawyers wrote. “They engaged in this self-dealing without authorization, and without paying Ohtani for that use, in a selfish and wrongful effort to take advantage of their proximity to the most famous baseball player in the world.”
The lawyers claimed Hayes and Matsumoto sued after “Balelo did his job and protected his client by expressing justifiable concern about this misuse and threatening to take legal action against this clear misappropriation.” They called Balelo’s actions “clearly protected speech “
In a statement issued after the suit was filed last month, Kingsbarn called the allegations “completely frivolous and without merit.”
Ohtani is a three-time MVP on the defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers.
“Nez Balelo has always prioritized Shohei Ohtani’s best interests, including protecting his name, image, and likeness from unauthorized use,” a lawyer for Ohtani and Balelo, said in a statement. “This frivolous lawsuit is a desperate attempt by plaintiffs to distract from their myriad of failures and blatant misappropriation of Mr. Ohtani’s rights.”
Lawyers for Hayes and Matsumoto did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
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Bill Connelly
What’s the old Guy Fieri line from “Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives”? “Slow down and take a look around”? College football’s superpower is its absolute enormity, and if you search, you’ll always find a wild game worth watching.
Some weeks, however, you don’t have to try very hard to find them. Week 3 of the 2025 season basically smacked us in the face with them.
Whether you considered Texas A&M-Notre Dame or Georgia-Tennessee the biggest game of the week, it didn’t matter — they both went down to the wire with quarterback heroics and special teams heartbreaks. And two of the sport’s wildest rivalries, Pitt-West Virginia and Ole Miss-Arkansas, both gave us classics too. Throw in a Division III Hail Mary and a pair of stunning HBCU endings, and just about the only thing we were missing Saturday was a late-night thriller.
After two straight wild weekends, 39 FBS teams remain unbeaten. Obviously some of those teams have more blemishes and weaknesses than others, but until you lose, you haven’t lost! SP+ projects an average of 0.95 of these teams reaching 12-0 — it might as well be your team!
All 39 of these teams are playoff contenders as long as their loss column zeros remain. As has become tradition at this point, let’s rank all the remaining unbeaten teams three weeks into the season.
Ranking all 39 unbeaten teams
SP+ and FPI rankings: second and first, respectively
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 10.4%
What the Ducks did in Week 3: def. Northwestern 34-14
It took Dan Lanning’s Ducks a little while to put Northwestern away early Saturday, primarily because their opponents were embarking on a series of lengthy (and eventually scoreless) drives. But they were never in danger, and they’ve spent most of three games in kick-butt-and-take-names mode.
SP+ and FPI rankings: third and second
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 11.5%
What the Buckeyes did in Week 3: def. Ohio, 37-9
Ohio is good enough that I expected the Bobcats to force the Buckeyes to put in a shift, but I can’t say I expected “one-score game with 22 minutes left.” Ohio State hit the gas and put this one to bed, but this team clearly hasn’t reached its final form yet.
SP+ and FPI rankings: first and seventh
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 11.2%
What the Nittany Lions did in Week 3: def. Villanova, 52-6
Penn State pulled a Penn State on Saturday, starting slowly against a lesser opponent before eventually steamrolling them. The Nittany Lions have yet to face a team ranked better than 112th in SP+, but that changes very soon: After a Week 4 bye, they’ll host Oregon in a loaded Week 5.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 20th and 15th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.6%
What the Aggies did in Week 3: def. No. 8 Notre Dame, 41-40
Even as someone who leans heavily on stats, I’m allowed to listen to my gut sometimes, and my gut has been telling me A&M is for real since the preseason. If I believed that before the Aggies’ late rally in South Bend on Saturday night, I’m certainly going to keep believing it afterward.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 10th and 11th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 10.3%
What the Hurricanes did in Week 3: def. South Florida, 49-12
Miami treated upstart USF as an elite team is supposed to. The Hurricanes’ defense was a bit more bend-don’t-break than I would like to see, but a ruthless offense rolled up 576 yards and didn’t allow the Bulls to ever feel as though they had a foot in the game.
SP+ and FPI rankings: eighth and fourth
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 2.5%
What the Bulldogs did in Week 3: def. No. 15 Tennessee, 44-41 (OT)
In their past three wins against power-conference opponents, Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs have had to go to overtime each time. Is that sustainable? No. Has Georgia shown signs of slippage over the past two seasons? Absolutely. Do I ever feel particularly good picking against them? Absolutely not.
SP+ and FPI rankings: fifth and eighth
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 6.5%
What the Rebels did in Week 3: def. Arkansas, 41-35
Forced to face a prolific Arkansas team without their starting quarterback, the Rebels laced up their track shoes and won a wild one all the same. Trinidad Chambliss enjoyed an epic star turn, and after three tight losses kept Ole Miss out of the CFP last season, they’ve nabbed a pair of tight wins early in 2025.
8. USC (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: ninth and fifth
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.3%
What the Trojans did in Week 3: def. Purdue, 33-17
The poll voters have been slow to trust USC this season. The computers? Not so much. The Trojans blew out two cupcakes to start the season, then survived a tricky, storm-delayed test at Purdue with defensive playmaking. That’s right! I said defensive playmaking! USC!
9. LSU (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 17th and 19th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.3%
What the Tigers did in Week 3: def. Florida, 20-10
On one hand, they’re 3-0, and they’ve already beaten two teams ranked 31st or higher in SP+ (Clemson and Florida). On the other hand, the offense has been a painful disappointment, and the Tigers needed five interceptions to put away a 20-10 win over the Gators. Surviving and advancing is what’s important, but that will get harder if LSU can’t top 24 points.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 33rd and 27th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.9%
What the Seminoles did in Week 3: bye week
Metrics are programmed to avoid overreacting to small samples as much as possible, so last year’s 2-10 campaign is still pretty large in the rearview mirror for SP+ and FPI. The eyeballs, however, think the Noles are just dandy. That Week 6 matchup with Miami looks awfully intriguing, doesn’t it?
SP+ and FPI rankings: 11th and 12th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.1%
What the Tigers did in Week 3: def. Louisiana, 52-10
Mizzou has overachieved against SP+ projections by an average of 12.6 points per game, and after Saturday’s steamrolling of Louisiana, the Tigers are averaging 302.3 rushing yards per game. Handle South Carolina as projected next week, and they should be unbeaten when Bama comes to town in Week 7.
SP+ and FPI rankings: seventh and 13th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.1%
What the Sooners did in Week 3: def. Temple, 42-3
The offense went into cruise control a hair early at Temple on Saturday, but the Sooners’ defense has allowed just 19 total points in three games. This is what a Brent Venables team was supposed to look like; now they have a chance to score another ranked win next week when Auburn comes to town.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 12th and 26th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 5.9%
What the Red Raiders did in Week 3: def. Oregon State, 45-14
Joey McGuire’s Red Raiders have played just about the softest set of opponents in FBS. They’ve also beaten those soft opponents by a combined 174-35. That’s still pretty telling. Behren Morton is putting up Air Raid-style passing numbers, and the defense hasn’t allowed a non-garbage-time point. Hard to top that.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 16th and 23rd
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.5%
What the Illini did in Week 3: def. Western Michigan, 38-0
The offense took its time shifting into gear against WMU on Saturday, but the defense has allowed 22 points in three games. The next time you think something in your life feels impossible, just step back and realize that unbeaten Illinois is playing unbeaten Indiana this Saturday in an enormous game with playoff implications, and that the two teams are a combined 27-5 since the start of 2024. If that’s possible, anything is.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 13th and 16th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.0%
What the Hoosiers did in Week 3: def. Indiana State, 73-0
My favorite tidbit from the weekend: Not only did IU’s Omar Cooper Jr. go off for 10 catches and 207 yards against poor, outmatched Indiana State on Friday night, he also caught TD passes from two different Mendozas (Fernando and Alberto).
SP+ and FPI rankings: 27th and 21st
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.1%
What they did in Week 3: def. No. 11 South Carolina, 31-7
Yes, the Commodores’ surprising blowout of the Gamecocks was impacted by an injury to South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers (which came from a hit deemed targeting). But Vandy was winning when Sellers got hurt and has outscored two power-conference opponents by a combined 65-7 in its past six quarters.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 38th and 33rd
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.4%
What the Yellow Jackets did in Week 3: def. No. 12 Clemson, 24-21
Brent Key’s Yellow Jackets against ranked opponents: 7-1.
Brent Key’s Yellow Jackets against unranked opponents: 14-15.
Does this make sense? No. Is it utterly delightful? Yes. (And has Tech overachieved against SP+ projections in all three games thus far? Also yes.)
18. Utah (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 15th and 18th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 4.7%
What the Utes did in Week 3: def. Wyoming, 31-6
Missed field goals and a turnover kept Utah from pulling away from Wyoming until well into the second half Saturday, but instead of getting Laramie’d, the Utes kept their heads and laid the hammer down. It’s probably pretty easy to keep your head when you know you have a defense as good as Utah’s on your side.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 26th and 43rd
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.2%
What the Cardinals did in Week 3: bye week
Jeff Brohm’s Cardinals have played almost precisely to SP+ projections thus far. If they keep that up, it’s going to be an awfully fun fall in Louisville considering they’re projected favorites in nine of their final 10 games.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 23rd and 34th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 2.7%
What the Cyclones did in Week 3: def. Arkansas State, 24-16
ISU’s Saturday trip to Jonesboro was … strange. The Cyclones averaged 7.7 yards per play with a robust 52.5% success rate, and they held ASU to 16 points. But they still had to make two fourth-quarter stops to secure a win thanks to a couple of missed opportunities and a pretty slow tempo. Regardless, they’re 4-0, and they finally get a welcome week off.
21. TCU (2-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 24th and 25th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.9%
What the Horned Frogs did in Week 3: def. Abilene Christian, 42-21
The Frogs only beat ACU by 21 despite being projected as 39-point favorites. A major letdown? Not really. They were up 28-0 at half and outgained the Wildcats 444-157 before garbage time set in. Sonny Dykes’ squad is taking care of business quickly in 2025.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 19th and 20th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.3%
What the Tigers did in Week 3: def. South Alabama, 31-15
Against a tricky and athletic South Alabama team, Auburn raced to an early lead, and while the Tigers never quite landed the knockout blow, they should be able to close out an unbeaten nonconference slate for the first time in six years. (Only Mercer remains.) That’s what we call progress.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 21st and 17th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.7%
What the Cornhuskers did in Week 3: def. Houston Christian, 59-7
Since an entirely unconvincing Week 1 win over Cincinnati, the Huskers have mauled two outmatched opponents (Akron and HCU) by a combined 127-7. Is that a sign of improvement or simply a sign that they can maul outmatched opponents? We’ll find out soon enough: Michigan comes to Lincoln this Saturday.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 51st and 47th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.7%
What the Green Wave did in Week 3: def. Duke, 34-27
Jon Sumrall’s Green Wave nearly let things get messy Saturday night, watching an 18-point lead shrink to seven in the final minute. But they still got the job done, and they still have a pair of power-conference victories on the résumé. No one else in the Group of 5 can say that. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff was one hell of a summer pickup.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 32nd and 29th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.1%
What the Huskies did in Week 3: bye week
Few teams have backfields with more dynamic combos than Washington with Demond Williams Jr. and Jonah Coleman. The Huskies get to face one more sketchy defense (Washington State’s) before the grind really begins. So far so good, however, in Jedd Fisch’s second season.
26. BYU (2-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 28th and 22nd
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.2%
What the Cougars did in Week 3: bye week
True freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier has looked like a true freshman, and that will probably catch up to the Cougars in a Big 12 loaded with even matchups and close games. But their defense has been downright mean thus far, and few teams are more physical in the trenches.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 29th and 36th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 8.7%
What the Tigers did in Week 3: def. Troy, 28-7
The Tigers haven’t had the marquee opportunities that conference mates Tulane and USF have seen thus far, but they’re the top-ranked Group of 5 team in both SP+ and FPI, and they get their shot this weekend. With maybe their best defense in more than a decade, they’ll try to slow down a torrid Arkansas attack in Fayetteville.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 39th and 38th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.3%
What the Wildcats did in Week 3: def. Kansas State, 23-17
Good news for Arizona fans: Your team is pretty good again! Bad news: Of the Wildcats’ nine remaining games, eight are projected as one-score affairs, per SP+. Anxiety potential is off the charts. They have a puncher’s chance at 11-1 or 12-0, but 4-8 or 5-7 are still on the table too.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 43rd and 60th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.03%
What the Terrapins did in Week 3: def. Towson, 44-17
Freshman quarterback Malik Washington is holding up, and the defense has overachieved against projections in two of three games. I don’t know where Maryland is going to end up this season, but this team’s ceiling is quite a bit higher than it seemed a few weeks ago.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 50th and 49th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.2%
What the Cougars did in Week 3: def. Colorado, 36-20
The defense hasn’t fallen off at all under new coordinator Austin Armstrong, and while the offense isn’t amazing, quarterback Conner Weigman (222 passing yards, 83 rushing yards) was awfully solid against Colorado on Friday night.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 45th and 42nd
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: <0.01%
What the Bulldogs did in Week 3: def. Alcorn State, 63-0
The Bulldogs probably aren’t going to win many more games this season — after this week’s matchup with Northern Illinois, they’ll face eight straight opponents ranked in the SP+ top 30 — but after a dismal first season under Jeff Lebby, they’re decidedly decent, and they’ll have a shot at eking out bowl eligibility.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 46th and 44th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: <0.01%
What the Scarlet Knights did in Week 3: def. Norfolk State, 60-10
An offense that ranks ninth in points per possession and a defense that ranks 83rd? What in the name of Greg Schiano is going on here? The Scarlet Knights, unrecognizable as they may be, will have a chance to stay on this list for a while with close upcoming games against Iowa, Minnesota and Washington.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 53rd and 58th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.1%
What the Golden Bears did in Week 3: def. Minnesota, 27-14
It will take an upset to knock freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and the Golden Bears off this list: After Saturday night’s upset-that-didn’t-look-like-an-upset over Minnesota, they’re projected favorites in each of their next six games.
34. Navy (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 49th and 68th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.5%
What the Midshipmen did in Week 3: def. Tulsa, 42-23
Quarterback Blake Horvath and the Midshipmen just continue to cruise right along. They’re now 13-3 since the start of 2024, and while trips to North Texas, Notre Dame and Memphis loom late in the season, they’re projected favorites in their next five games.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 56th and 53rd
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.04%
What the Wolfpack did in Week 3: def. Wake Forest, 34-24
Dave Doeren’s resilient Wolfpack trailed both Virginia and Wake Forest midway through the third quarter but allowed a combined seven second-half points in the two games and eventually pulled off wins. The pass defense scares me, and the offense is pretty all-or-nothing, but this is a confident, 60-minute team.
36. UCF (2-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 59th and 48th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.01%
What the Knights did in Week 3: bye week
Scott Frost has won 15 straight games as UCF’s head coach, dating back to his first tenure. The offense scored only 17 points against Jacksonville State in Week 1, but the defense has been legit thus far, and Frost could become the second collegiate head coach to hand Bill Belichick a loss this Saturday.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 66th and 67th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.7%
What the Mean Green did in Week 3: def. Washington State, 59-10
On Saturday, North Texas laid down maybe the best performance of any G5 team this season. The Mean Green were about 7-point favorites against Washington State and won by seven touchdowns instead. Quarterback Drew Mestemaker‘s next poor performance will be his first in college.
38. UNLV (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 76th and 65th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 2.2%
What the Rebels did in Week 3: bye week
Dan Mullen’s first UNLV team is learning and growing, from a narrow defeat of Idaho State in Week 0 to a win over UCLA in Week 2. (Granted, New Mexico’s Week 3 pummeling of the Bruins made that look less impressive.) Now come tricky trips to Miami (Ohio) and Wyoming.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 58th and 69th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: <0.01%
What the Spartans did in Week 3: def. Youngstown State, 41-24
Like Louisville, Jonathan Smith’s Spartans have basically played precisely to projections in 2025. Unlike Louisville, it won’t be great if that continues: They’re projected underdogs against eight of nine Big Ten opponents.
This week in SP+
The SP+ rankings have been updated for the week. Let’s take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We’re looking at ratings, not rankings.)
Moving up
Here are the five teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week:
• Marshall (up 7.0 adjusted points per game, ranking rose from 123rd to 99th)
• Penn State (up 6.3 points, rose from seventh to first)
• UTSA (up 6.0 points, rose from 90th to 67th)
• Stanford (up 5.8 points, rose from 103rd to 86th)
• Miami (up 5.5 points, rose from 27th to 10th)
It’s been a really funky year in FBS-versus-FCS games. We’ve seen enough strangely unimpressive performances — Georgia vs. Austin Peay, for example — that teams seem to be getting extra credit for dominating decent FCS opponents. This week’s top three movers, for instance, beat three top-40 FCS teams by a combined 138-33 and charged upward. It is what it is, I guess.
The other two teams on the list, however, surprised in different ways. Miami handled its business against everyone’s favorite Group of 5 team (USF), while Stanford shut out a decent Boston College team in the second half to win with shocking comfort, 30-20.
Moving down
Here are the five teams whose ratings fell the most:
• South Carolina (down 8.9 adjusted points per game, ranking fell from 12th to 48th)
• Central Michigan (down 8.3 points, fell from 119th to 132nd)
• Washington State (down 8.0 points, fell from 76th to 103rd)
• New Mexico State (down 6.9 points, fell from 109th to 125th)
• Appalachian State (down 6.1 points, fell from 84th to 100th)
There’s no “your quarterback got hurt in the second quarter” adjustment in the SP+ formula, so South Carolina’s jarring 31-7 loss to Vanderbilt as a projected 9.5-point favorite resulted in an absolute plummet. It’s probably not a surprise that Washington State fell by a similar amount after a 59-10 no-show at North Texas.
Who won the Heisman this week?
I am once again awarding the Heisman every single week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second, and so on). How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting?
For the third straight week, we have an almost completely new top 10:
1. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (21-for-29 passing for 353 yards and 1 touchdown, plus 64 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against Arkansas).
2. Gunner Stockton, Georgia (23-for-31 passing for 304 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 48 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Tennessee).
3. Taylen Green, Arkansas (22-for-35 passing for 305 yards and 1 touchdown, plus 115 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Ole Miss).
4. Ty Simpson, Alabama (24-for-29 passing for 382 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 39 non-sack rushing yards against Wisconsin).
5. Jake Retzlaff, Tulane (15-for-23 passing for 245 yards, plus 113 non-sack rushing yards and 4 TDs against Duke).
6. Ahmad Hardy, Missouri (22 carries for 250 yards and 3 TDs against Louisiana).
7. Behren Morton, Texas Tech (23-for-35 passing for 464 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT against Oregon State).
8. Eric Gentry, USC (8 tackles, 3 TFLs, 2 sacks and 2 forced fumbles against Purdue).
9. Mario Craver, Texas A&M (7 catches for 207 yards and 1 TD against Notre Dame).
10. Colton Joseph, Old Dominion (16-for-22 passing for 276 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 63 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Virginia Tech).
Considering how many SEC quarterbacks have played disappointing ball this season – Texas’ Arch Manning, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, Florida’s DJ Lagway, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers – it’s pretty incredible that four other SEC QBs were no-brainers for the top five this week. All of them had a case for No. 1 (as did Tulane’s Jake Retzlaff, honestly), but I went with the sentimental choice. You know I love the smaller-school guys, and watching former Division II star Trinidad Chambliss, a Ferris State transfer, light up Arkansas with deep ball after deep ball (and a few nice runs) made me very happy.
Honorable mention:
• Damon Bankston, New Mexico (15 carries for 154 yards and a TD, plus 49 receiving yards and another TD against UCLA).
• Carson Beck, Miami (23-for-28 passing for 340 yards, 3 TDs and 2 INTs, plus 32 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against USF)
• Chris Brazzell, Tennessee (6 catches for 177 yards and 3 TDs against Georgia).
• Omar Cooper, Indiana (10 catches for 207 yards and 4 TDs against Indiana State).
• John Henry Dailey, Utah (six tackles, two sacks, a forced fumble and a pass breakup against Wyoming).
• Josh Hoover, TCU (21-for-27 passing for 337 yards and 4 touchdowns against Abilene Christian).
• Ismail Mahdi, Arizona (22 carries for 189 yards, plus 32 receiving yards against Kansas State).
• E. Jai Mason, Charlotte (10 catches for 228 yards and 2 TDs against Monmouth).
• Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (19-for-20 passing for 270 yards and 5 touchdowns, plus a rushing touchdown against Indiana State).
• Bryce Underwood, Michigan (16-for-25 passing for 235 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, plus 114 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against Central Michigan).
Through three weeks, here are your points leaders:
1T. QB Taylen Green, Arkansas (15 points)
1T. QB Ty Simpson, Alabama (15 points)
3T. QB Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (10 points)
3T. RB Jonah Coleman, Washington (10 points)
3T. QB Sawyer Robertson, Baylor (10 points)
6T. QB Rocco Becht, Iowa State (nine points)
6T. QB Gunner Stockton, Georgia (nine points)
6T. DB Vicari Swain, South Carolina (nine points)
10. QB Parker Navarro, Ohio (eight points)
Three weeks in, and this list still makes no sense. This has been a very unusual season thus far. The only two players to show up on this list twice so far are Green and Simpson, and that certainly isn’t something I would have guessed when the season began (or after Simpson struggled so much in Week 1 against Florida State). On we go, into the back half of September, and the Heisman race hasn’t even really begun yet.
My 20 favorite games of the weekend
Once again, I couldn’t hold my 10 Favorite Games list to 10 games. Saturday was absolutely glorious. You could have had about a six-way tie at No. 1.
1-2. No. 16 Texas A&M 41, No. 8 Notre Dame 40 and No. 17 Ole Miss 41, Arkansas 35. These were basically the same games, only Texas A&M actually scored at the end, while Arkansas lost a fumble and came up 25 yards short. Regardless, both games topped 900 total yards, and each had about 38 plot twists. Absolutely delightful.
3. No. 6 Georgia 44, No. 15 Tennessee 41 (OT). A surefire No. 1 in a normal week. This one had 998 total yards and what felt like a couple of different knockout blows. And crowd reaction shots. So many great crowd reaction shots.
4. Georgia Tech 24, No. 12 Clemson 21. Now I’m mad at myself. How is this one not No. 1?? It only had the smoothest game-winning, 55-yard fire-drill field goal you’ll ever see …
0:27
Aidan Birr kicks 55-yard field goal
Aidan Birr kicks 55-yard field goal
5. Division III: Plymouth State 47, Worcester State 46. Up in Plymouth, New Hampshire, we got a D-III classic. Worcester State scored twice in the fourth quarter to take a 39-32 lead into the final minute, but Jacob Morris snagged a 52-yard Hail Mary at the buzzer, and after both teams traded overtime TDs, Greg Walker’s rush gave the Panthers a thrilling win.
Hail Mary alert!!!!! Jacob Morris hauled in a 52 yard heave from Braden Lynn to help force OT in a game the Panthers would eventually win 47-46!! #d3fb #SCTop10 #d3playbook @mascacsports pic.twitter.com/5I0D8KWvqe
— Plymouth St. Sports (@PSUPanthers) September 13, 2025
6. West Virginia 31, Pitt 24 (OT). A Backyard Brawl featuring a 10-point comeback in the final 10 minutes, overtime and an exultant Rich Rodriguez? And it was sixth? What a week.
7-8. FCS: NC A&T 33, Hampton 30 (2OT) and Grambling 37, Kentucky State 31 (OT). The HBCU universe always delivers. North Carolina A&T trailed Hampton by 10 with one minute left and was all but assured of a 13th straight loss, but a patented touchdown-onside kick-field goal combo forced overtime, and Wesley Graves‘ second-OT touchdown finished an absolute heist.
Grambling, meanwhile, spotted D-II opponent Kentucky State leads of 14-0 early and 31-24 late, but C’zavian Teasett forced overtime with a TD run with 10 seconds left, and overtime gave us one of the best phrases in the sport: walk-off fumble return.
TYRELL RABY!!! FORCES THE FUMBLE AND RETURNS IT FOR THE GAME WINNING TOUCHDOWN!!!
TIGERS WIN!!!#GramFam | #ThisIsTheG🐯 pic.twitter.com/xUkY7x6hQR
— Grambling State Football 🐯 (@GSUFootball01) September 14, 2025
The poor cameraman had no idea.
9. Delaware 44, UConn 41 (OT). It seemed like UConn had finally taken control after falling into an early 21-10 hole, but a big Nick Minicucci-to-Kyre Duplessis pass set up a game-tying 43-yard field goal for Delaware at the buzzer. And after UConn opened overtime with a field goal, the Blue Hens secured a lovely upset with a 13-yard Minicucci run up the middle.
10. NAIA: Louisiana Christian 43, Wayland Baptist 37. It isn’t just that the teams combined for 36 fourth-quarter points. It’s that basically all the points came from fireworks. Wayland Baptist turned a 30-17 deficit into a 37-30 lead with touchdown passes of 79 and 27 yards and an 83-yard fumble return, but Louisiana Christian turned right around and tied the game on a 24-yard touchdown pass, then won it on a 31-yard Jaterrius Johns run with 1:33 left. It was almost surprising that WBU couldn’t squeeze in one more score at the end.
11. Middle Tennessee 14, Nevada 13. After a hopeless 0-2 start, MTSU found itself down 13-0 midway through the fourth quarter in Reno. But Nicholas Vattiato threw a touchdown pass to Nahzae Cox, then scored the winning touchdown run with 21 seconds left to create a hockey stick of a win probability chart.
12. Buffalo 31, Kent State 28. A game of runs: 14-0 Kent State, then 24-0 Buffalo, then 14-0 Kent State. Dru DeShields gave Kent State — a huge home underdog — a 28-24 lead with just 2:38 left, but Buffalo saved itself with a Ta’Quan Roberson-to-Victor Snow TD pass and a pair of late stops.
13-15. FCS: No. 19 Northern Arizona 52, Southern Utah 49; No. 7 Montana 24, No. 17 North Dakota 23; Weber State 42, McNeese State 41. The Big Sky delivered a trio of thrillers. Weber State nearly blew a 42-21 lead in the final 10 minutes of a big-play festival but stopped a last-minute 2-point conversion to survive. Montana, meanwhile, had to dig out of a 23-14 hole in the last five minutes to win with a 28-yard Keali’i Ah Yat-to-Brooks Davis TD pass. And in Cedar City, Utah, Ty Pennington‘s 2-point conversion pass to Jayson Raines with 29 seconds left gave NAU a Grand Canyon Trophy win over host Southern Utah.
16. Charlotte 42, Monmouth 35. A tossup game on paper, this one saw five ties and wasn’t decided until Conner Harrell plunged into the end zone with 90 seconds left and Charlotte’s defense made a late stop.
17. Ball State 34, New Hampshire 29. Ball State was actually a home underdog in this one and gave up a blocked punt touchdown 67 seconds into the game. But running back Qua Ashley keyed a 27-7 Cardinals run, and the defense stopped UNH near midfield on its final possession.
18. Division III: No. 6 Hardin-Simmons 24, McMurry 19. In the battle for the Wilford Moore Trophy, these Abilene rivals went down to the wire. Hardin-Simmons took a 24-6 lead into halftime, but McMurry charged back and had a chance to win until Caden Sampson-Stuckey’s fourth-down sack of Dylan Plake with 49 seconds left.
19-20. Division II: No. 25 Minnesota Duluth 17, No. 7 Minnesota State 14 and No. 24 Pittsburg State 17, No. 3 Grand Valley State 14. Two top-10 teams in Division II fell by the same score almost simultaneously Saturday evening. First, Minnesota-Duluth’s Jadon Apgar hit a 25-yard field goal at the buzzer to beat Minnesota State in Duluth; a few minutes later, GVSU imploded, throwing an interception with 5:04 left, then committing two fourth-down penalties to allow host Pitt State to run out the clock. Ouch.
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