Member, Professional Basketball Writers Association
The lessons come hard and fast in the major leagues. In the span of less than a month, the Texas Rangers‘ dream season has morphed into, well, not quite a nightmare but at the very least a prolonged bout of anxiety. It’s a lot to digest, even for an Ivy League-educated ex-pitcher on a whirlwind career trajectory such as Rangers general manager Chris Young.
“I’ve learned a ton,” Young said, reflecting on his ongoing transformation from player to executive. “I don’t think you’re ever truly prepared for this. And I don’t think you ever really dominate all aspects of it.”
Only six years ago, Young, 44, was an active player, wrapping up a 13-year career in which he debuted with his hometown Rangers, made an All-Star team, and won a ring with the 2015 Kansas City Royals. After a couple of years working in the MLB league office, he was hired as the Rangers’ GM, working under longtime lead executive Jon Daniels before taking his place as the head of baseball operations on Aug. 17, 2022.
One year later, the first Rangers roster for which Young was solely responsible was in prime position for the American League West title. This stunning development came on the heels of a three-year stretch in which the Rangers won just 63.3 of each 162 games they played, the franchise’s lowest point in 50 years.
“To some extent it was to accelerate the rebuild,” Young said. “In a market this size, I think that our fans deserve that. They shouldn’t have to go through a five-, six-, seven-year rebuild.”
It worked. Under future Hall of Fame manager Bruce Bochy, the Rangers were on pace to win more than 100 games into the third week of June. Their run differential suggested they were even better than that, marking them as a triple-digit winner all the way to the end of August. Texas’ offense was on pace to score 1,000 runs as late as June 14.
After the Rangers beat the Angels on Aug. 15, just shy of the anniversary mark of Young’s rise to the top of the club’s front office, Texas had won 12 of 14, a hot stretch that began in the immediate aftermath of its trade deadline additions of Scherzer and Montgomery.
“Championship seasons can be few and far between,” Young said. “When you have that chance, these players have earned the right, this coaching staff has earned the right, to have the support they need.”
At that point the Rangers were on pace to win 97 games but had the run differential of a 105-win team. Simulation-based probabilities gave Texas a 79% shot of winning the AL West, even though the defending champion Houston Astros were hot on their bootheels. The Rangers owned a 99% shot of making the postseason.
And then things took a turn.
What went wrong
The current standings tell the story of what came next. An eight-game losing streak, a frigid spell that stretched into 16 losses in 20 games. What had been a 6½-game lead in the division turned into a three-game deficit. Those gaudy probabilities tumbled, with Texas’ slump coinciding with hot play from both the Astros and Seattle Mariners.
What in the name of Nolan Ryan went wrong?
Injuries
The Rangers rolled through deGrom’s early-season-ending elbow injury and a monthlong injured list stint from Seager. But they went 2-7 when Seager was hurt again in late July.
The rotation ranked 11th in ERA (3.95) and sixth in quality starts through July 18, when Eovaldi turned up with a forearm strain. Since then, the starters rank 24th with a 5.02 ERA.
Josh Jung was having a Rookie of the Year-caliber season, with an .813 OPS, 22 homers and 67 RBIs, when he suffered a fractured thumb. He hasn’t played since Aug. 6.
Starting catcher Jonah Heim made his first All-Star squad but landed on the IL with a wrist problem just before the trade deadline. He’s back in the lineup but hit just .167 in his first 22 games after returning.
Most recently, Adolis Garcia hurt a knee while trying to run down a home run ball in a game against Houston. He was placed on the IL on Sept. 8. Garcia leads the Rangers in homers (34) and RBIs (100).
The bullpen
The relief staff hasn’t been a strong point for most of the season. Texas ranks 26th in bullpen ERA and has more blown saves (29) than saves (27). That’s not great.
Lately, though, things have been even worse, and at times, it feels as if the Rangers don’t have a reliever capable of navigating through a clean inning. Since the beginning of September, the Texas bullpen has a 6.80 ERA and has allowed a .985 OPS.
Regression
Remember those tales of the Rangers being on pace to score more than 1,000 runs? The regression monster has caught up to a number of key performers.
Using the All-Star break as a dividing line, you can see the respective declines:
Not all of the Rangers have fallen off. Semien and Seager have continued to mash, Nathaniel Lowe has picked up his production and Mitch Garver has been one of baseball’s hottest hitters.
But the lineup hasn’t been as deep, and an offense that was scoring 5.8 runs per game before the break has lost about a run off that average, which makes the shortcomings in the bullpen and a recent slump for the rotation impossible to mask.
Perhaps the biggest source of solace in all this is the presence of Bochy, a three-time champion with the San Francisco Giants and the 10th-winningest skipper in baseball history.
“We’ve spent most of the year in first place,” said Semien, who grew up in the Bay Area as a Giants fan. “We’ve had a little lull lately, but all in all, when you look at Year 1 with Bruce Bochy, you have to like the way we’ve played.”
Indeed, all is not lost … yet.
How they can turn it around
The nadir of the Rangers’ slide came at the worst possible time.
Everything was still on the table for Texas, one of the six existing franchises still in search of its first World Series crown, when Houston arrived in Arlington for a huge three-game series, beginning on Labor Day, that promised to be as big as anything we’ve seen in Texas baseball for a long time.
“It’s one where, it’s why you play,” Bochy said before the opener. “We’re excited. The series is going to get a lot of attention, as it should. Two teams that are tied, trying to get [to the postseason].”
It started well. No, really. The Rangers jumped to an early lead in the first game of the showdown on the strength of a 453-foot Seager blast, sending a sellout gathering at Globe Life Field into a frenzy, and led 3-0 through four innings. From that point on, the Astros outscored the Rangers 39-7 and clubbed 16 homers while completing the most resounding three-game sweep imaginable in the last installment of the 2023 Silver Boot Series.
The proper sound effect for this would be that of the helium escaping from someone’s freshly pricked birthday balloon.
“It’s part of the game and you have to let it go,” Bochy said after the series finale. “You don’t have any other choice. Obviously, it was not a good series. There wasn’t a lot we did well.”
After Texas lost to the lowly Oakland Athletics on Sept. 8, the odds were down to a 7% shot at the division and a 57% shot at the playoffs. A couple of wins over Oakland stopped the bleeding (and pushed the playoff odds to 65%), but the Rangers have work to do. Key series loom against the teams they are fighting against for position, the current series in Toronto (the Rangers won the opener on of a four-game set on Monday) and two remaining series against Seattle.
Texas has a clear mission: pass either the Mariners or Blue Jays. The final two AL spots will go to two of those three contenders, as the Orioles, Twins, Astros and Rays all have close to 100% probabilities by now.
To do that, a few things are going to have to happen.
Better health
They need Garcia back, though at least in prospect Evan Carter, they introduced an intriguing replacement. Eovaldi needs to ramp up to something like a full workload. Meanwhile, Jung is making progress, having taken some swings off a batting tee over the weekend. His thumb isn’t going to be quite right until the offseason, but there is increasing hope he can get back and help later this month.
More innings from the rotation
Look, neither Mariano Rivera nor anyone like him will be walking through the Rangers’ bullpen door. As Bochy and pitching coach Mike Maddux shuffle roles and try to identify favorable matchups, the worst thing for the relievers, and for the coaching staff, is for the group to be gassed on top of everything else.
That’s why the onus is on the rotation, where the bulk of Texas’ current pitching talent lies. Simply put, the starters must consistently work deep into games. Scherzer has to be Scherzer, the future Hall of Fame ace, and not the guy who was battered around by the Astros. Eovaldi is working his way back in real time, getting two starts off the IL but on severely limited pitch counts. His stuff was much better the second time and that trend has to continue. Let’s not forget that before he was injured, Eovaldi was leading the AL in innings and was positioned to make a solid run at this year’s AL Cy Young Award.
The Rangers could really use Montgomery and Gray getting hot, and for Andrew Heaney to basically keep doing what he’s been doing. No one in this trio needs to go on a historic scoreless innings streak, but they do need to get into the sixth and seventh innings consistently. This would give the Texas offense a chance to build some runway early in games and Bochy a chance to be more fine with how the Rangers match relievers with different segments of opposing lineups.
If the core five of the Texas rotation can be steady, that gives Bochy the luxury of using his solid rotation depth hurlers — Martin Perez and Dane Dunning — in multi-inning, medium- and high-leverage relief stints to shrink the responsibilities of the back of the bullpen.
Stars being stars
Semien and Seager need to keep producing like the top-10 MVP candidates they’ve been all season. And when (or if) Garcia comes off the IL, the streaky powerhouse of a right fielder needs to catch fire.
In the 25 games before his injury, Garcia hit .147 with a .555 OPS, but he won a key game against Minnesota on Sept. 3 with a game-ending homer, one that seemed to provide the perfect launching point for Texas in the Houston series.
“That was a great moment for us,” Semien said before taking on the Astros. “Definitely needed that moment to get the ball rolling going into this series.”
But the Rangers soon learned one lightning-strike moment won’t save their season. It’s more a challenge of weathering the ups and downs of a stretch run as a contender.
Globe Life Field is situated amid a sort of mecca for leisure activity, adjacent to the Six Flags Over Texas amusement park, which features towering roller-coaster tracks that dominate the horizon and serve as metaphors of the Rangers’ campaign — and, perhaps, its hope. Because no matter how steep the plunge is on one of those rides, you still have the promise of another climb directly ahead.
“The difference between good and great in this league is very small,” Scherzer said. “You always feel like you’re on the edge of being great. But it’s hard to be great in this league because everybody is so good. The difference is just all the little things.”
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
BOSTON — Red Sox right-hander Hunter Dobbins said on Saturday that he knew his season was probably over when he felt a familiar sensation in his knee.
He was right. Dobbins was diagnosed with a torn anterior cruciate ligament, his second ACL tear in his right knee.
“Yeah. I’ve torn my ACL in this knee before, and it was the same feeling,” he said, standing in the middle of Boston’s clubhouse with a red sleeve on his right leg. “Kind of some denial went into it, tried to go through that warmup pitch, felt the same sensation again, so, at that point, I knew what it was.”
Dobbins tore the same ACL playing high school football.
Covering first base in the second inning of Boston’s 5-4 walk-off win over the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday night, 25-year-old Dobbins stepped awkwardly and limped after recording an out by making a catch on a throw from first baseman Abraham Toro.
Dobbins took one warmup toss before manager Alex Cora stopped him from attempting any more.
“Tough,” Cora said before the Red Sox faced the Rays. “He put himself on the map, right, did a good job for us. When it happened, I thought something minor. Talking to him, he felt it right away. He’s been through that before.”
Dobbins said he found out about Boston’s dramatic win while being examined.
“I was actually in the MRI machine and they were giving me score updates in between each one,” he said. “Right after the last one they said, ‘I think you’d like to hear this, you just won by a walk-off.’ That was pretty cool to hear the guys picked me up.”
The Red Sox placed him on the 15-day injured list Saturday and recalled right-hander Richard Fitts.
“In my head I have Opening Day next year kind of circled,” Dobbins said. “Whether or not that’s realistic, I don’t know, but that’s my goal.”