Everything you need for the 2023 MLB playoffs: Odds, X factors and how far all 12 teams will go
Let the 2023 MLB playoffs begin!
Starting with this week’s wild-card series (beginning Tuesday at 3 p.m. ET on ABC), it’s sure to be another thrilling October of postseason baseball. We’ve got you covered with everything you need to know, from the first pitch of the playoffs to the final out of the World Series.
Will the favored Atlanta Braves roll through the National League, or will one of the Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers or Milwaukee Brewers be the NL’s last team standing? Can the Baltimore Orioles turn a 100-plus-win season into a World Series berth, or will we see a deep run from the Texas Rangers or defending champion Houston Astros?
MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez and David Schoenfield get you ready for it all with odds for every round, a predicted date of each team’s last game and a name to watch for all 12 World Series hopefuls.
Note: World Series and matchup odds come from Doolittle’s formula using power ratings as the basis for 10,000 simulations to determine the most likely outcomes.
Jump to a team:
TOR | TEX | TB | MIN | HOU | BAL
ARI | MIA | PHI | MIL | LAD | ATL
American League
Baltimore Orioles
No. 1 seed | 101-61 | AL East champs
ALDS opponent: Rangers or Rays (49.0% chance of reaching ALCS)
World Series odds: 11.5% | Caesars odds: +650
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 23
The one thing that will decide their October fate: Now that All-Star closer Felix Bautista is officially done for the season and will undergo Tommy John surgery, the pressure ramps up on a Baltimore bullpen that was so dominant with the late-game duo of Yennier Cano and Bautista. Cano has been a little more hittable in the second half, especially in the final month. The Orioles are deep in left-handed relievers with Cionel Perez, Danny Coulombe and rookie DL Hall, but they’re scrambling a bit from the right side aside from Cano. Tyler Wells, a starter until he was sent down to the minors in late July, is back as a reliever and could get some high-leverage moments. — Schoenfield
Ready for his October close-up: Last year, when the Orioles rose from 110 losses to the edge of contention within the sport’s most difficult division, it was all about Adley Rutschman. This year, as the Orioles have surged through a 100-win season, it’s all about Gunnar Henderson, a lock for the AL Rookie of the Year award and a legitimate star at the age of 22. Henderson can hit, slug, run and field, but, like Rutschman, he also just seems to have this aura around him, like it’s already so obvious that we’re watching a generational talent. That swing is pure poetry, too. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: This is a franchise that lost 110 games just two seasons ago, making this year’s rise to the top of the American League one of the most dramatic turnarounds in major league history. The Orioles have emerging young stars such as Rutschman and Henderson, plus vets such as Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander who suffered through some terrible seasons in Baltimore. They’re not flashy, but they play good defense, they run the bases well and the lineup is deeper than you might realize. Plus, root for them now when they’re the shiny new thing: You might get tired of them down the road after they make the playoffs every year for the next decade. — Schoenfield
What they do that could take down the Braves: One thing we know about the AL teams in the bracket is that if they play the Braves in the last series of the season, that will mean any questions about them that we have entering the playoffs will have been answered. In the Orioles’ case, that will mean the back of the bullpen has come together (preferably with Bautista) but even more importantly, it would suggest that the stage hasn’t been too big for the O’s. And that would mean their young stars like Henderson and Rutschman are doing their thing. If that happens, all the Orioles have to do is be themselves, because they can match the Braves in terms of raw talent. — Doolittle
Houston Astros
No. 2 seed | 90-72 | AL West champs
ALDS opponent: Twins or Blue Jays (53.6% chance of reaching ALCS)
World Series odds: 12.0% | Caesars odds: +500
Predicted date of their last game: Nov. 3
The one thing that will decide their October fate: Pitching carried the Astros to the World Series title last season — especially the bullpen — as they hit just .232/.302/.389 in the postseason. The pitching doesn’t appear as strong this season, so the offense will have to do better. We all know what Yordan Alvarez can do but the keys are Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman. Altuve didn’t have a single RBI last postseason and Bregman struggled in the 2021 playoffs, when he was battling an injury. Houston needs both of them to perform this October. — Schoenfield
Ready for his October closeup: Michael Brantley remained a major voice in the Astros’ clubhouse during their run to a championship last fall, but his bat was a major void from their lineup. Now he’s back. Brantley returned in August after a 14-month absence that was caused by a torn labrum, and he did what he always does — he performed like one of the best pure hitters in the game. This team is still very much the same Astros that have reached the AL Championship Series in six straight years, but they’ve only performed like that in spurts this season. They’ll really need Brantley’s bat in the playoffs this time. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Well, chances are you won’t, unless you’re an Astros fan. Even last year you could at least root for Dusty Baker to finally win a World Series. But maybe you’re a fan of baseball history and would appreciate Houston becoming the first team to win consecutive World Series since the Yankees won three in a row from 1998 to 2000. OK, who am I kidding? You’re not rooting for the Astros unless you live in Houston. — Schoenfield
What they do that could take down the Braves: Remember ’21. If we end up with a pairing of the last two champions in the Fall Classic, it will be a bit of a turnabout. In 2021, an upstart Braves squad that won just 88 regular season games knocked off a 95-win Astros squad in six games. Adding to the indignity was that Atlanta finished off the Astros in Houston. The enduring image from the deciding contest was on a night when the roof was open at Minute Maid Park, Jorge Soler blasted a Luis Garcia pitch over the Crawford Boxes, over the head of the choo-choo commander up on the tracks and out onto the street and into the Texas night. If we get a rematch, we’re talking about a 104-win Braves juggernaut against a wounded champ in Houston, which barely earned its playoff spot. Is revenge the right motivation for a defending champ? Sure, why not? — Doolittle
No. 3 seed | 87-75 | AL Central champs
First opponent: Blue Jays (57.8% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 5.8% | Caesars odds: +2000
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 11
The one thing that will decide their October fate: Will the Twins get healthy enough? Carlos Correa missed the final two weeks of the regular season with plantar fasciitis, and manager Rocco Baldelli said he’ll play in the playoffs “but won’t be 100%.” Royce Lewis, who hit four grand slams in an eight-game stretch and leads the team in OPS, missed the end of the season with a hamstring issue, and his status is uncertain. Byron Buxton, who didn’t play in the field all season, missed almost all of the final two months (and scuffled at the plate all season anyway). Reliever Brock Stewart, who came out of nowhere to post a sub-1.00 ERA, had been out since June before returning for the final two series. They’ll need these players back and producing to avoid adding another chapter to Minnesota’s lengthy streak of postseason disappointments. — Schoenfield
Ready for his October closeup: Lewis spent the first two months of the season recovering from his second torn ACL and didn’t join the team until late May. But he has been the Twins’ most productive hitter, slashing .309/.372/.548 in a 58-game sample. Injuries, unfortunately, continue to be a big part of his story. Lewis missed six weeks around midseason with an oblique strain and finished the year on the injured list, though he seems on track to at least make it back as a designated hitter. The Twins had high hopes for Lewis when they took him with the No. 1 overall pick out of high school in 2017, and he has finally provided glimpses of his potential this year. His real opportunity will come this postseason. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: This is an easy one. You’re certainly tired of the Astros and maybe even the Rays. You’re not ready to jump on the Orioles’ or Rangers’ bandwagons. Your fondest memories of the Blue Jays remain Dave Stieb and George Bell, not Kevin Gausman and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. But the Twins … the Twins have lost an unfathomable 18 consecutive playoff games going back to 2004. The fine people of Minnesota don’t deserve this. Let the Twins win a series (or four). Nobody expects them to win, so if you want an underdog in the AL, the Twins are your team. — Schoenfield
What they do that could take down the Braves: One of the things that makes the Braves so lethal is that despite a historic level of collective power, they don’t strike out that much. Nevertheless, the standout trait of the Twins has been the ability of their pitchers to dominate the strike zone. Minnesota’s hurlers led the majors in strikeout percentage and ranked fourth in walk percentage. The strike zone is a dangerous place to be against the Braves: Their OPS on pitches in the zone was nearly 100 points better than that of any other team. For Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez and the rest, throwing strikes while staying out of the middle of the plate is their best hope of keeping the Braves in the ballpark and, perhaps just as important, keeping runners off base so when Atlanta does go deep, it’s a solo shot. — Doolittle
2:07
Young MLB stars to look out for in the 2023 postseason
Check out the highlights from some of MLB’s best young stars as they head into the postseason, including Ronald Acuna Jr., Adley Rutschman and Corbin Carroll.
No. 4 seed | 99-63 | AL first wild card
Wild-card opponent: Rangers (58.0% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 8.3% | Caesars odds: +1200
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 13
The one thing that will decide their October fate: Can the offense get hot at the right time? When the Rays had that amazing start, the offense was on fire and led the majors in runs scored through the end of May. It has been solid since then, but nowhere near as dominant. With Wander Franco on administrative leave, Brandon Lowe out with a patella fracture and Luke Raley questionable due to a cervical strain, they’re basically down to Josh Lowe from the left side of the plate (and light-hitting switch hitter Taylor Walls). That means they’re going to face a lot of nasty righty relievers that they’ll have to beat late in games. — Schoenfield
Ready for his October closeup: There are few things we can all agree on these days, but this seems to be one of them: Randy Arozarena loves the big stage. We saw it during the 2020 postseason, a dominant showing before he had even registered 50 major league games. We saw it during this year’s World Baseball Classic, with his cowboy boots and sporadic autograph sessions and seemingly endless array of clutch hits. We saw it four months later, when he nearly took down Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to win the Home Run Derby. And we’ll probably see it again in October, for a Rays team that desperately needs his production with its starting rotation decimated by injuries and Wander Franco unavailable. Everyone will be looking at Randy Arozarena — just the way he likes it. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: It has been yet another remarkable “How do they do it?” season from the Rays. They lost key starting pitchers throughout the season — Jeffrey Springs in April, Drew Rasmussen in May and Shane McClanahan in early August — and yet remained in the hunt for the division title in the majors’ toughest division until the final weekend. As always, they’re aggressive on the bases and have a bunch of dominant relievers you’ve probably never heard of (check out the stats for one-time cast-offs Robert Stephenson and Shawn Armstrong). If you want to root for the AL team that does the most with the least amount of money, the Rays are your team. — Schoenfield
What they do that could take down the Braves: Out-homer them. It’s really that simple, and you might say that about every other club that will confront Atlanta. But it’s different when we’re talking about the Rays because they might be better equipped to do it than anybody. The Rays ranked fifth in homer percentage, though they relied on homers for just 41% of their scoring, as opposed to a historic 52% for the Braves. Like Minnesota, the Rays’ staff dominates the strike zone, ranking just behind the Twins in strikeout rate and just ahead of them in walk rate. But what separates the Rays is that they also ranked sixth in homers allowed percentage (third on the road, which filters out some of the park effects). No one has a better profile for winning a series against Atlanta decided by longball prowess. — Doolittle
Texas Rangers
No. 5 seed | 90-72 | AL second wild card
ALDS opponent: Rays (42.0% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 5.2% | Caesars odds: +1600
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 5
The one thing that will decide their October fate: The bullpen. The Rangers have the worst bullpen ERA of any of the playoff teams and rank 26th in the majors in bullpen win probability added. Will Smith lost his job as closer weeks ago and Aroldis Chapman and Jose Leclerc have shared closer duties in September. Both do have strikeout stuff and the ability to dominate — when they’re not walking everybody. And who sets them up? Andrew Heaney has been pitching out of the bullpen and will get key innings. Jonathan Hernandez had to relieve Chapman the other night in Seattle and gave up a game-losing bases-loaded double. The lack of depth also means it’s imperative for the starters to give Bruce Bochy some length. Jordan Montgomery has been able to do that, but Nathan Eovaldi has yet to go more than five innings while slowly ramping up since his return from the injured list. And Max Scherzer? The Rangers haven’t ruled him out of the postseason — and you don’t want to bet against Scherzer — but his return appears unlikely. — Schoenfield
Ready for his October closeup: The Rangers acquired Adolis Garcia for almost nothing. The Cardinals had basically given up on him, and so in December of 2019, the Rangers picked him up for mere cash considerations. He didn’t establish himself in the major leagues until 2021, his age-28 season, but he has improved every year since with his OPS jumping from .741 to .756 to, this year, .836. As the Rangers have lifted themselves into championship contention, Garcia has emerged as one of the sport’s most menacing power hitters. He also has become a lot more discerning within the strike zone. The Rangers, with that very shaky bullpen situation, are going to have to hit their way through October, and Garcia will be a big part of that. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: The Braves’ offense has understandably received much of the national attention, but the Rangers aren’t far behind in runs scored — although they’ve benefited from a huge home-park advantage with 53 more home runs at Globe Life Field than on the road. Like the Braves, they have ridiculous depth from No. 1 to No. 9 in the lineup, with Corey Seager leading the way by putting up one of the greatest offensive seasons ever for a shortstop (other than missing 40 games). They lead the AL in average, home runs, walks, OBP and slugging. Oh, and keep an eye on 21-year-old outfielder Evan Carter, who has torn the cover off the ball since his September call-up. — Schoenfield
What they do that could take down the Braves: The Rangers bashed their way to a breakout season for much of the summer. They won 11 games by 10 or more runs, far and away more than any other team. That includes the homer-happy Braves. If the Rangers survive the AL bracket, it’s almost certainly going to be because they’ve touched the offensive ceiling they displayed earlier in the campaign. The pitching staff, especially the bullpen, has to be better than it was for much of the post-trade-deadline part of the season. But if the Rangers win the World Series, it’s going to be because Marcus Semien, Seager, Garcia and the rest are turning the scoreboard. In particular, that is their formula for beating Atlanta. — Doolittle
No. 6 seed | 89-73 | AL third wild card
Wild-card opponent: Twins (42.3% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 3.7% | Caesars odds: +1800
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 4
The one thing that will decide their October fate: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. When Guerrero and Bichette reached the majors in 2019 — Guerrero at 20 years old and Bichette at 21 — and soon established themselves as two of the top young players in the game, it appeared all the Jays had to do was build around the two future stars. That stardom has been a little hit-and-miss for both players, however, and the Jays have yet to win a playoff game with these two. The Blue Jays have the starting rotation to go all the way, but the offense has been middle-of-the-pack all season. They need Guerrero and Bichette to get hot together. — Schoenfield
Ready for his October closeup: Jose Berrios was a shell of himself last year, leading the American League in earned runs allowed and not pitching in the series when the Blue Jays got knocked out by the Seattle Mariners in two wild-card games. He has since bounced back in dramatic fashion, posting a 3.65 ERA in 189⅔ innings. There are questions about the Blue Jays’ underperforming offense heading into the postseason, but their rotation — fronted by Kevin Gausman — stands as a major strength. Berrios’ resurgence has been a major part of that. And he’ll finally get to show why the Blue Jays gave up two high-end prospects to acquire him from the Twins in the summer of 2021, then signed him to a $131 million extension the following offseason. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: When the Blue Jays are clicking, they’re a really fun team to watch. No, Guerrero hasn’t repeated his monster 2021 season, but he’s still one of the biggest names in the sport. The defense, with Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho in the outfield and Matt Chapman at third, is often spectacular and leads the majors in defensive runs saved. Gausman is a legit No. 1 starter with that nasty, unhittable splitter. And it has been 30 years since they were last in a World Series, when Joe Carter touched ’em all. — Schoenfield
What they do that could take down the Braves: Out-defend them. The Toronto pitching staff didn’t do a great job of keeping the ball in the park this season and against the Braves; that’s a less-than-ideal trait. Last we checked, it’s hard to field a ball that flies over the fence, so our recipe here for Toronto has the obvious prerequisite that it has to have some good fortune in the homer-per-fly-ball category. But if that happens, the Blue Jays have a whopping advantage over the Braves in terms of the leading defensive metrics. In particular, their outfield can flat pick it, with the Jays more than doubling the defensive runs saved total of any other outfield. So if the Braves aren’t quite barreling it up on their power swings, the abilities of Varsho and Kiermaier to chase everything down could tip a close series. — Doolittle
National League
Atlanta Braves
No. 1 seed | 104-58 | NL East champs
NLDS opponent: Phillies or Marlins (65.4% chance of reaching NLCS)
World Series odds: 22.4% | Caesars odds: +275
Predicted date of their last game: Nov. 3
The one thing that will decide their October fate: Suddenly there are big concerns about Atlanta’s starting rotation. Max Fried missed his last couple of starts of the regular season with a blister problem. Charlie Morton has already been ruled out of the division series with a finger issue. Bryce Elder was an All-Star in the first half but saw his ERA balloon to over 5.00 in the second half. Even Spencer Strider has had some mediocre outings down the stretch and seen his MLB-leading strikeout rate drop in the final two months. On top of that, the bullpen has some injury issues and had its worst month in September, which puts even more pressure on the rotation. — Schoenfield
Ready for his October closeup: Ronald Acuna Jr. was nursing a torn ACL when the Braves won it all in 2021. He had made it back when they returned to the postseason in 2022, but he clearly wasn’t himself yet. This year, he has reached a new level. He’s the NL MVP front-runner, the first member of the 40-70 club and a far more disciplined hitter than he ever has been. At 25, he is the best baseball player on the planet (non-Shohei Ohtani division). And his prowess from the leadoff spot is the biggest reason this Braves lineup has become historic. When the games matter most, Acuna can impact them with his majestic power and blazing speed and rocket arm, and he’s sure to do plenty of that in October. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: The Murderer’s Row Yankees of Ruth and Gehrig. The Brooklyn Dodgers of the 1950s. The Big Red Machine. The “Idiot” Red Sox of 2004. With a World Series title, the Braves have a chance to cement their place in history as one of the most fearsome lineups of all time. They dominated the regular season — and were two homers shy of tying the single-season home run record — with a lineup that became the first to feature four players with 35-plus home runs. They’ve been the team to watch all season and now that greatness will be tested in October. — Schoenfield
Why they are the team to beat: The offense is just too good to keep down. And while we’ve seen offensive powerhouses falter before in the crucible of October, the Braves’ attack looks airtight. Their numbers hold up no matter how you split them up. They mash at home and on the road, against lefties and righties, against all kinds of pitch profiles. They have power at every spot in the lineup. Earlier in the season, it looked like the Braves might have become too reliant on homers for scoring, a trait that doesn’t always hold up well in the playoffs. But Atlanta’s offense has gradually become more varied as the season has progressed and right now appears to be without weakness. Sure, the Braves have question marks around their pitching staff, but if their offense is putting up five or more runs a game, that might not matter. — Doolittle
Los Angeles Dodgers
No. 2 seed | 100-62 | NL West champs
NLDS opponent: Brewers or D-backs (63.1% chance of reaching NLCS)
World Series odds: 18.6% | Caesars odds: +500
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 23
The one thing that will decide their October fate: Sure, they’ll need this patched-together starting rotation to step up, but let’s face it: Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman have carried this team all season with their all-around brilliance and L.A. will be relying on those two stars to keep it going. Yes, those two have supporting offensive characters in Max Muncy and J.D. Martinez, who both topped 30 home runs, and Will Smith, but this has been the Mookie and Freddie show. It’s hard to envision a path to the World Series that doesn’t revolve around those two both having big October runs. — Schoenfield
Ready for his October closeup: Clayton Kershaw and Lance Lynn will be limited in their starts and the likes of Emmet Sheehan, Ryan Pepiot and Ryan Yarbrough will be used mostly to soak up the middle innings. But Bobby Miller — the 24-year-old power right-hander, the best of an emerging young core of starting pitchers — will essentially be counted on to be the Dodgers’ ace. He has the electric stuff, and the Dodgers believe he also possesses the poise, a la Walker Buehler. Miller dominated at the outset, allowing only two runs in 23 innings through the first four starts of his major league career. He hasn’t been as effective since, but he had a solid month of September. He’ll need to take it to another level in October. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: I get it: The Dodgers are here every year, they’re a blue-blood franchise with a high payroll and you’re about as tired of them as you are of the Astros. But you also have to respect what this organization has accomplished, tying an MLB record with a third straight 100-win season (a stretch that almost certainly would have been five in a row if the entire 2020 season had been played). And yet, their only World Series title during this dynastic run carries an asterisk because it came that shortened campaign with playoff games at neutral sites and the whole weirdness of that season. So, yes, there is part of me that would like the Dodgers to win a World Series in a real season, with fans in the stands, with Mookie hitting home runs, Freddie hitting doubles and maybe even Kershaw dialing up Father Time and having his best October ever. — Schoenfield
What they do that could take down the Braves: While the Braves might be scrambling to fill out an injury-riddled rotation, the Dodgers have been doing that all along. So there doesn’t appear to be an advantage for Atlanta in starting pitching and the Dodgers’ bullpen is deeper and better. If that translates to lower-scoring games than the Braves prefer, the chances of one or two performances tipping the series rise. And for all of Ronald Acuna Jr.’s spectacular play and Matt Olson‘s home runs, would anyone be surprised if Freeman and Betts were enough all on their own to propel the Dodgers past the Braves? Their combined brilliance this season has been breathtaking and the postseason context for both of them is by now old hat. — Doolittle
Milwaukee Brewers
No. 3 seed | 92-70 | NL Central champs
NLDS opponent: D-backs (61.7% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 4.7% | Caesars odds: +1800
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 14
The one thing that will decide their October fate: The Brewers must get leads to the bullpen, which ranks first in the majors in win probability added (by a large margin). That’s basically a proxy for “clutch” when it comes to reliever performance and that’s what the pen has been all season in leading the Brewers to an excellent record in both one-run and extra-inning games. Closer Devin Williams throws his changeup more than 50% of the time and it’s so good it has a nickname: The Airbender. Batters are hitting .098 against it. Joel Payamps has been the key setup guy while Hoby Milner and Bryse Wilson have been excellent as well — and keep an eye on flame-throwing rookie Abner Uribe, who didn’t come up until July but has pitched himself into a high-leverage role. –Schoenfield
Ready for his October closeup: William Contreras never got much of a chance on star-studded Braves teams over these past few years, seeing a combined 10 postseason plate appearances in 2021 and 2022. Then the Brewers acquired him as part of the three-team trade that sent Sean Murphy to Atlanta in December 2022, and now Contreras — Willson’s younger brother — stands at the center of a Brewers offense that needs more punch to back up its dynamic pitching staff. Contreras, Christian Yelich and the recently acquired Mark Canha are the only Brewers regulars with an adjusted OPS at least 10% above league average. Contreras needs to produce from the No. 2 spot and handle the rigors of a demanding position. This year, he proved he is up to the task. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Tired of the Braves and Dodgers? Can’t find yourself rooting for a team from Philly? Then the scrappy, small-market Brewers are for you! Plus, they’ve never won a World Series, making it only once, way back in 1982 when they lost to the Cardinals in seven games. This is their fifth playoff trip in six seasons so they’ve been a consistent contender, with some playoff heartbreak along the way — a Game 7 loss to the Dodgers in the 2018 NLCS, the late blown lead in the 2019 wild-card game. They deserve your playoff love. — Schoenfield
What they do that could take down the Braves: Keep them off the scoreboard. The Brewers are a complete package on the run-prevention side of the game. They have a terrific rotation that looks even better in the postseason format because of their unmatched big three of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta. They have an elite end-of-game hammer in Williams, and no one is better at bridging the gap between the starters and the closer than Craig Counsell. On top of all that, the Brewers are an elite defensive team that can win games by taking hits away in the infield and outfield alike. If the offense produces anything in October, the Brewers are going to be a team nobody wants to face. Even the Braves. — Doolittle
Philadelphia Phillies
No. 4 seed | 90-72 | NL first wild card
Wild-card opponent: Marlins (64.4% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 5.2% | Caesars odds: +1400
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 12
The one thing that will decide their October fate: Home runs. This is true of every team, of course, that you need to hit home runs to win in the postseason, but the Phillies spent the first four months of the season not hitting enough homers. Through the end of July they were 21st in the majors in home runs, topping out at 33 in a month. Then they hit 59 in August and 46 in September to tie the Braves for the most home runs over the final two months. That team — like the one we saw last October with Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber leading the way — is a team that can return to the World Series. — Schoenfield
Ready for his October closeup: Phillies fans rallied behind Alec Bohm last year and watched him go from being a mess defensively to a very capable third baseman who became an integral part of a World Series team. The same is taking place with Trea Turner, who signed a $300 million contract over the offseason and struggled mightily through his first four months. He then got a supportive standing ovation from the home crowd, and went off in August and September. It’s probably no coincidence. When Turner is right, he is one of the most dynamic players in the sport. We saw it early this year during the World Baseball Classic. Soon, he’ll get his chance to become a true Philly legend. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Come on, this is a fun team. Harper is the straw that stirs the drink and he’s must-watch TV in October. Schwarber had one of the wildest, weirdest seasons of all time, with a sub-.200 average but still scoring and driving in 100 runs thanks to his power and walks. Turner got red hot the final two months. Rookie Johan Rojas is electrifying and may be the best defensive center fielder in the game. The bullpen is often a high-wire act, so every Phillies game — whether they’re leading or trailing — feels undecided until that final out. — Schoenfield
What they do that could take down the Braves: The Phillies have star power in the lineup and the collective long ball ability to go toe-to-toe with the Braves. Their outfield defense has improved with personnel changes through the season. The rotation is in much better shape than Atlanta’s injury-marred group. But the most underrated aspect of the Phillies, and where they may have a decisive edge over the Braves, is the bullpen. The Phillies feature high-octane stuff, depth and balance in this area and most of the chief components (Craig Kimbrel, Gregory Soto, Jose Alvarado, Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm, Seranthony Domínguez) have been on point as the playoffs approach. In Rob Thomson, they have a skipper who proved last year that he knows how to deploy a bullpen in October. If the Phillies can turn a series against the Braves into a successive battle of the bullpens, look out. — Doolittle
No. 5 seed | 84-77 | NL second wild card
Wild-card opponent: Phillies (35.6% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 1.2% | Caesars odds: +3300
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 4
The one thing that will decide their October fate: The rotation will have to absolutely crush it, because the Marlins were last in the NL in runs and the bullpen has been shaky at times. The Marlins are here because they excelled in one-run games (the best record in the majors), so if they can translate that success to the lower-scoring environment of playoff baseball, maybe they can surprise. With Sandy Alcantara injured, Jesus Luzardo is the No. 1 starter and when he’s on, he’s very tough: He’s tied for second (behind only Blake Snell) for the most starts this season allowing no more than one run. — Schoenfield
Ready for his October closeup: It seems as if we’ve been waiting a little too long for Jazz Chisholm Jr. to emerge as a superstar, but perhaps baseball’s biggest stage will bring that out of him. We know it’s in there. Chisholm, 25, can be lightning in a bottle for this young, scrappy Marlins team, able to impact games with his bat and his legs and his glove (he has played a very nice center field despite never playing there before this season). Chisholm has been good but not great offensively since returning from an oblique strain in late July, but he has shown flashes of brilliance. He probably has more in him. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: If you like October weirdness, then the Marlins are your team. After all, they have a chance now for a third World Series — even though they’ve never won a division title and made the playoffs in a full season just three times. Indeed, this rotation is reminiscent of the 2003 world championship group, a young staff featuring Josh Beckett, Dontrelle Willis, Carl Pavano and Brad Penny, all 27 or younger. Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, Eury Perez and Edward Cabrera are all 25 or younger. — Schoenfield
What they do that could take down the Braves: Keep it close! The Marlins are in the postseason because they have dominated one-run games, pure and simple. They are 20 games over .500 (33-13) in one-run contests and because of that, a team with a run profile that should land them in the mid-70s in the win column is instead in the mid-80s. Of course, “keeping it close” isn’t really a strategy. So as we look at the chances of a team that is hard to explain, we can’t say that the Marlins could blow through the Braves and the rest of the bracket because they won a lot of close games. We can say that if they do wind up in the World Series, the one-run success — wherever it sprang from — will have held up. — Doolittle
No. 6 seed | 84-78 | NL third wild card
Wild-card opponent: Brewers (38.3% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 1.5% | Caesars odds: +3300
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 4
The one thing that will decide their October fate: The starting pitchers not named Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. The D-backs’ two co-aces could pitch them into the NLDS, but what happens after that? The only other starter with an ERA under 5.00 was Tommy Henry and he’s injured. Zach Davies was actually in the rotation until he was designated for assignment just a few days before the season ended. That leaves rookies Ryne Nelson and Brandon Pfaadt, who have both been hit hard and struggled with the long ball. Pfaadt has more swing-and-miss stuff, so he’s probably the No. 3 starter, but Arizona will have to find a way to win some non-Gallen/Kelly games. — Schoenfield
Ready for his October closeup: You’d be hard-pressed to find a more electric player than Corbin Carroll, a dynamic defender and an elite hitter who also plays with his hair on fire. Carroll became the first player ever to combine 50-plus steals with 25-plus home runs and 10-plus triples in the same season. He did that as a rookie. David Cone recently said Carroll reminds him of Derek Jeter in his rookie season, largely because of their leadership qualities at a young age. One big difference: Jeter played for one of the world’s most decorated franchises. Carroll, not so much. But that’s what makes the playoffs so cool — the world is about to find out just how good and fun Carroll really is. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: We mentioned the Orioles turning it around from 110 losses two seasons ago. Well, the Diamondbacks matched them that year with 110 defeats, so getting to the playoffs just two years later is a great achievement for a young, building team. Carroll is certainly the star attraction but he’s not alone: rookie catcher Gabriel Moreno is going to be another cornerstone player with his defense — check out his arm — and improving bat. In this day of rocket-armed pitchers, Gallen and Kelly are two starters who rely on movement, location and pitch selection more than pure velocity. The art of pitching is alive and well with those two. — Schoenfield
What they do that could take down the Braves: Run, run, run. Despite the uptick in stolen bases this season, this still isn’t baseball, circa 1985. To run on offense, the hitters have to get on base and get the ball in play. If that happens, the Diamondback rolled up 161 stolen bases and did so with a MLB-best 87% success rate. They can drive Sean Murphy and his pitchers crazy. But that’s not the only kind of running we’re talking about. Arizona’s athleticism also paid off on defense as Torey Lovullo’s fielders as a unit was arguably the best in the majors. Like Toronto, if Arizona’s pitchers can keep the Braves’ power bats in the ballpark (easier said than done), Carroll & Co. can impact games by running down balls in the gap — Doolittle
-
Kiley McDaniel
Much has changed since we ranked all 30 MLB farm systems before the 2025 season. A big part of that shift has come in the past few weeks as the most recent prospects joined their new teams via the MLB draft and then front offices added — or subtracted — young players at the MLB trade deadline.
With two of the most impactful periods for any farm system in the rearview, it’s time to see how all 30 organizations stack up and what has changed most since Opening Day.
These dollar figures are a little lower (roughly 5% on average) than they’ll be in the winter, basically because when I do the deep dive on each system, it will reveal/upgrade more lower-tier prospects for each team, but it mostly won’t affect the higher-tier prospects.
This is a pretty objective process (each prospect has a dollar value based on their rank). Obviously, there’s some subjectivity in the process, too (how the players are ranked), and roughly the top-50 prospects in the sport have an empirical, but to most fans disproportionate, value. Having the most players in the top half of the Top 100 is the best way to be the top-ranked team in this exercise. On that note, let’s get to that first team.
Preseason rank: 9
The Mets have hovered in the middle third of my farm rankings for years — until the beginning of this season, when they moved up to ninth. They’re now on top, at the peak valuation of this crest of young talent, with a top-heavy system featuring prospects who are largely in the Top 100 and either in Triple-A or the big leagues.
This also isn’t a random occurrence or glut of players who are about to graduate from being prospects at once. Ronny Mauricio and Luisangel Acuna already graduated this year, Christian Scott graduated last year, Brett Baty and Mark Vientos the year before that, Francisco Alvarez before that — and there have also been several midlevel prospects traded out of the system over the past two deadlines: Jesus Baez, Drew Gilbert, and Kade Morris lead the way.
At this time next year, I’d expect six of New York’s top eight prospects, if not more, to have either graduated or be up in the big leagues to stay, so this ranking won’t last very long, but that’s also because the Mets will have a roster teeming with useful big leaguers: the whole reason this list exists.
Preseason rank: 1
If you’re a regular reader of my rankings, the Dodgers have fared well for a while; they’ve been in my top-10 farm systems the past five rankings, dating back to after the 2021 season.
They have graduated Dalton Rushing, Justin Wrobleski, Ben Casparius and Jack Dreyer this year, with Alex Freeland possibly joining that group before the end of the year. The top of the system mostly position players in A-ball, so the Dodgers are likely to rank high for many years.
Preseason rank: 7
The Mariners have quietly put together a great system built on solid scouting and development while not trading their top-tier prospects. Instead, Seattle has dipped into its second tier when needed, such as moving first baseman Tyler Locklear and pitcher Brandyn Garcia to upgrade the lineup at the trade deadline
The Mariners’ draft focus a few years ago was heavily on prep position players, but that has shifted a bit to include pitchers, with potential frontline starters Ryan Sloan and Kade Anderson added over the past two summers.
Preseason rank: 20
A huge part of this ranking is that the Pirates have the No. 1 prospect in the sport in Konnor Griffin. They would be ninth on this list if he were the second prospect in baseball because there’s a premium in being the best prospect.
Bubba Chandler, Hunter Barco, Rafael Flores, Thomas Harrington, and Nick Yorke are expected to be important players for next year’s team. Griffin will likely move into that conversation by the second half. I don’t know if this group will be enough to propel the big league team into contention, but the prospects will give Pittsburgh a chance to make that kind of move up the standings.
Preseason rank: 6
The deadline teardown wasn’t designed primarily to boost the Twins’ farm rankings, but obviously, it did that, too. The addition of young talent in trades that cut the MLB payroll, coupled with Minnesota having no major prospects graduate from eligibility this year (though Luke Keaschall is close), helped the Twins move up. Minnesota has been in the top 10 farm systems since the end of the 2023 season.
The talent is largely in the upper minors and will be relevant to the big league team next year. There’s also quality depth here, with the third-most prospects above 40 FV of any system.
Preseason rank: 8
The Brewers are bordering on the “Breaking Bad” “He can’t keep getting away with this” meme as they continually field a competitive (if not excellent) big league team on a shoestring budget but also have young players regularly appearing in the big leagues and have a strong farm system. The Brewers might have four players get votes for Rookie of the Year this season: Jacob Misiorowski, Isaac Collins, Caleb Durbin, and Chad Patrick. It should be no surprise that Milwaukee also leads the league in quality depth in its farm system, too.
Preseason rank: 11
The Brewers and Rays lead the “How do they keep doing this?” teams, but the Guardians are quietly in third by being competitive, if not good, almost every year. 2B Travis Bazzana, the No. 1 pick in 2024, is tracking like another impact-type talent as soon as next season, while deadline acquisition RHP Khal Stephen might be the next standout pitcher who wasn’t a high pick.
There’s depth to the system and lots of solid contributors, but keep an eye on outfielders Chase DeLauter (can he stay healthy?) and Jace LaViolette (can he make enough contact?), who both have star potential if it all clicks.
Preseason rank: 3
The Tigers might have the best top of the system in baseball, with two of the top six prospects and five of the top 60, but their depth has been reduced because of several graduations and some deadline deals.
Shortstop Kevin McGonigle and center fielder Max Clark have star potential and will be on the verge of the big leagues next season, but I could see them either not getting a chance to debut or getting a taste late in the season to preserve their 2027 Rookie of the Year/Prospect Promotion Incentive possibilities.
I’m also intrigued by the Tigers’ high-variance draft approach this summer as they took the two top high school position players with the shortest track record of facing high-end pitching: Jordan Yost and Michael Oliveto.
Preseason rank: 19
As Chaim Bloom takes the reins from John Mozeliak as president of baseball operations after this season, the Cards’ system is in the best shape it has been in years (they ranked 10th after the 2022 season).
JJ Wetherholt and Liam Doyle are the most recent first-round picks and are also potentially impactful rookies for the 2026 club. There are more questions regarding the other top prospects. Quinn Mathews and Tink Hence had up-and-down seasons, Cooper Hjerpe and Tekoah Roby had/have serious arm injuries, and Rainiel Rodriguez and Joshua Baez came out of nowhere.
Overall, there is solid depth in the system and with the young talent in the big leagues, so I’m intrigued to see how Bloom handles the team-building challenge.
Preseason rank: 15
The Marlins continue to trend up as they add young players. Miami’s farm system was ranked 29th before the 2024 season, No. 19 at this time last year, and No. 15 entering this season.
LHP Thomas White has emerged as a potential ace, and LHP Robby Snelling and CF Jakob Marsee led the charge of arrow-up prospects. SS Aiva Arquette and CF Cam Cannarella were the top players added in the draft.
I think the peak ranking for this wave of talent probably comes at some point next year (maybe postdraft, White is still considered a prospect), meaning many of Miami’s top prospects will be on the big league team at some point next season.
Preseason rank: 14
The O’s had the top farm system in the game through the 2024 trade deadline and then dropped to 14th before this season as their best young players continued to graduate to the majors.
They seem to have stabilized with this next wave of talent, and it looks like C Samuel Basallo and OF Dylan Beavers will narrowly keep their prospect status for this winter. The group behind those two emerged this season, with RHP Trey Gibson, CF Nate George and RHP Esteban Mejia all taking a big step forward. Meanwhile, having the largest 2025 draft pool led to a big incoming group of prospects led by C/RF Ike Irish, SS Wehiwa Aloy, CF Slater de Brun, and C Caden Bodine.
Preseason rank: 24
The Jays hit a home run with their top three picks in the 2024 draft: First-rounder RHP Trey Yesavage is the 35th-ranked prospect in the sport, second-rounder RHP Khal Stephen (now with the Guardians after a deadline deal) is the 59th-ranked prospect, and third-rounder LHP Johnny King is inside the top 150 prospects.
The Jays proved they can replicate that success with position players by drafting shortstop Arjun Nimmala in 2023, and they’ll look to do it again with 2025 first-rounder JoJo Parker.
Preseason rank: 25
The D-backs added young talent at the trade deadline, with 1B Tyler Locklear, LHP Kohl Drake, LHP Brandyn Garcia, LHP Mitch Bratt, RHP Juan Burgos, RHP Ashton Izzi, RHP David Hagaman, and RHP Andrew Hoffmann all ranking as 40 FV or better. Their returns on their top three picks in the 2024 draft (CF Slade Caldwell, LF Ryan Waldschmidt and 2B JD Dix) all look strong early as well.
There’s some real depth here (Arizona is tied for third in quality depth), and there’s a lot of talent that should be showing up in the big leagues and/or graduating next season.
Preseason rank: 4
It has been a busy year for the Red Sox system. The club graduated three top-tier position player prospects in Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell. Those three leave a giant hole in terms of prospect value, but SS Franklin Arias and LHP Payton Tolle led the charge of arrow-up prospects trying to fill it. Righties Kyson Witherspoon, Marcus Phillips and Anthony Eyanson headlined a pitcher-heavy 2025 draft haul.
15. Athletics ($182 million)
Preseason rank: 23
The headline here is in giant letters: They added No. 5 prospect SS Leo De Vries at the trade deadline to this current wave of talent moving through the minors that includes Gage Jump and Jamie Arnold. They are all potentially joining an incredibly deep group already in the big leagues as soon as next season: Nick Kurtz, Tyler Soderstrom, Jacob Wilson, Lawrence Butler, Denzel Clarke, Luis Morales, J.T. Ginn, and Jack Perkins.
Preseason rank: 5
This is the first time the Rays have been out of the top seven in at least three years, and it’s for numerous reasons. First, they graduated some talent this year in CF Chandler Simpson, LHP Mason Montgomery, Jake Mangum, along with star 3B Junior Caminero last year. Secondly, it wasn’t a great year for development as Carson Williams and Xavier Isaac continued to plateau due to contact issues, leaving Theo Gillen as the one clear arrow-up player at the top of the system.
The players they got at the deadline were also mostly second-tier types, but the draft haul was deep with upside high school players who give hope for upward mobility next season.
Preseason rank: 16
The Rangers have held their position, graduating Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter this season but also having those holes filled by rising prospects like Devin Fitz-Gerald and Caden Scarborough, along with the recent draft class led by Gavin Fien, Josh Owens, and AJ Russell.
They have injured players (Alejandro Rosario and Winston Santos) who should return to the field and an intriguing international-signee position-player group (Yolfran Castillo, Yeremy Cabrera, and Elorky Rodriguez), giving this system some upward mobility next season, though it’s unclear when Rosario will return to the mound.
Preseason rank: 13
The Reds are in a bit of a farm system down cycle (they’ve ranged from fifth to 19th over the past four years), with Chase Burns graduating after the electric class of Elly De La Cruz, Andrew Abbott, and Matt McLain lost eligibility.
Some of their current top prospects — 3B Sal Stewart, RHP Rhett Lowder, and RHP Chase Petty — should graduate early next season, which would then clear the way for the system to be defined by some potential impact players in the lower levels: C Alfredo Duno, 1B Cam Collier, SS Steele Hall, SS Tyson Lewis, and RHP Aaron Watson.
Preseason rank: 10
The Cubs graduated Matt Shaw and Cade Horton this year after Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, and Daniel Palencia last season.
This current prospect crop is headlined by players who have already debuted (Moises Ballesteros, Owen Caissie, Kevin Alcantara) or are in the upper levels of the minors (Jefferson Rojas, Jaxon Wiggins, Jonathon Long, Brandon Birdsell). I liked their recent draft crop, led by RF Ethan Conrad, LF Josiah Hartshorn, CF Kane Kepley, and RHP Kaleb Wing, and think there’s enough talent at the lower levels to make a next wave of talent.
Preseason rank: 2
The White Sox had some tough timing: SS Colson Montgomery lost his prospect eligibility after the top 100 was posted but before the farm rankings went up, moving them down from 13th to here.
They originally fell from second on the preseason list to 13th because of the graduations of Kyle Teel, Edgar Quero, Grant Taylor, Chase Meidroth, Shane Smith and Mike Vasil in addition to control issues on the mound for top pitching prospects Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith. The top two picks in the 2025 draft crop (Billy Carlson and Jaden Fauske) have upward mobility in 2026.
Preseason rank: 17
SS Aidan Miller, RHP Andrew Painter, and CF Justin Crawford are all in the upper minors and seem like they were off-limits for trades the past couple of trade deadlines. They could be the homegrown infusion of potential impact talent as the major league roster ages.
I liked the 2025 draft crop, with RHP Gage Wood and LHP Cade Obermueller as potential quick movers and RHP Matthew Fisher as a great value. CF Dante Nori and 2B Aroon Escobar are also notable arrow-up prospects this season.
Preseason rank: 12
The Nats are in a short downcycle in prospect value as James Wood, Dylan Crews, Daylen Lile, Brady House, Robert Hassell III, Brad Lord, and Cole Henry all graduated this year. They supplemented them with a big draft class, which was helped by going underslot at the No. 1 pick: SS Eli Willits, 1B Ethan Petry, SS Coy James, RHP Landon Harmon, and RHP Miguel Sime Jr. RHP Jarlin Susana needs to lower his walks to shoot up in the Top 100, and RHP Travis Sykora could do it if he stays healthy. I see the Nats rising up this list again next season.
Preseason rank: 18
Adding a potential star in SS Ethan Holliday, the fourth pick in the draft, is the headline for the Rockies’ farm system this year. I also liked the next few picks, landing RHP JB Middleton and RF Max Belyeu.
Another infielder with big league bloodlines, 3B Kyle Karros, has been the main arrow-up player in the system this year, and I liked the two headliner returns from both deadline-trade deals with the Yankees, getting 2B Roc Riggio and LHP Griffin Herring. LF Sterlin Thompson got hot after a slow start, but the top roughly dozen returning prospects have been mostly moving sideways this season.
Preseason rank: 29
1B Bryce Eldridge is the Giants’ top prospect and will likely play a big part for the big league team next season, while LHP Carson Whisenhunt and CF Drew Gilbert are in the big leagues. These are the next hopes for a homegrown star, following Logan Webb and Patrick Bailey (despite his down season). SS Josuar De Jesus Gonzalez, 17, is more likely than Whisenhunt or Gilbert, but will take a while to get to the big leagues. SS Jhonny Level, RHP Keyner Martinez, and RHP Argenis Cayama are all rising from the international department along with Gonzalez.
Preseason rank: 21
The Yankees traded 16 prospects at this year’s trade deadline after dealing away six at last year’s deadline — along with four more in non-deadline deals the past two seasons. Oh, and one more notable prospect loss from yet another scenario.
To Brian Cashman’s credit, this exodus didn’t include any of the best handful of prospects in the organization: SS George Lombard Jr., RHP Cam Schlittler, CF Spencer Jones and RHP Carlos Lagrange. But these moves have cleared out much of the system’s depth and some potentially impactful young players, such as C Agustin Ramirez and 2B Caleb Durbin, and even a few solid veterans like RHP Michael King.
The past two draft and international signing classes have helped backfill the organization with young talent that could have the Yankees soon climbing this list again and reversing a trend that has seen New York go from the sixth-best farm system before the 2024 season to No. 15 after last year’s deadline, No. 21 entering this season and No. 25 in this edition.
Preseason rank: 27
The Braves have a fresh group of pitchers to supplement the current shortage at the major league level, led by LHP Cam Caminiti, RHP Didier Fuentes, and RHP JR Ritchie. As fans might be thinking, these pitchers are not solutions this year, but Fuentes could be next year and soon-to-graduate RHP Hurston Waldrep might have turned the corner with his strong major league debut.
This year’s draft haul, led by SS Tate Southisene and LHP Briggs McKenzie, has some of that high-upside prep formula that has worked for the Braves in the past, so I’d expect this ranking to continue to rise.
Preseason rank: 22
The Royals graduated Jac Caglianone and Noah Cameron as potential core players, with John Rave, Ryan Bergert, Jonathan Bowlan and Steven Cruz joining them as role players who have or soon will graduate.
Of the remaining prospects, C Carter Jensen is in Triple-A and could be a core player, and I like the draft haul (3B Josh Hammond, CF Sean Gamble and RHP Michael Lombardi were the first three picks).
Meanwhile, RHP Kendry Chourio has emerged as arguably the top pitcher in the system. Hammond and Gamble could be the high-end prospects needed to pull this system out of the bottom third of the league, like they were before the 2022 season.
Preseason rank: 28
The Angels have been between 25th and 30th in these rankings since the end of the 2021 season, as they’ve been focused on moving prospects quickly to the majors while trying to make the most of having Mike Trout in the organization.
A solid group of players is getting close to the big leagues from the past two draft classes, last year’s trade deadline return and the international department’s signings.
Righties Tyler Bremner, George Klassen, and Trey Gregory-Alford have the potential to be impact-type arms with some further development, but I don’t see star potential in the position player group.
Preseason rank: 30
The Astros have been between 27th and 30th in every list since the end of the 2021 season, as they’ve focused on keeping the big league team competitive.
2B Brice Matthews and OF Jacob Melton are the top two prospects in the system, but are both in the big leagues with everyday-player upside. After those two graduate, the Astros will need the past two draft classes, headlined by 3B Xavier Neyens and C Walker Janek, to pick up the slack.
Preseason rank: 26
You could probably see this coming after the Padres dealt away 20 prospects over the past two trade deadlines, and seven more in spring 2024 to acquire Luis Arraez and Dylan Cease.
The Padres had the fourth-best farm system before the 2024 season, and since then, essentially, a pretty good top 30 of prospects has been shipped out of San Diego’s system. It’s impressive that there’s still some talent here, and the Padres are still among the best teams in baseball at finding prospects anywhere they can.
-
Kiley McDaniel
A lot has changed since the last time we ranked the top MLB prospects.
The MLB draft and breakout seasons have added new names to our list, replacing players who have graduated or regressed in 2025 — and some of the prospects in our ranking are in different places after a busy trade deadline in the majors.
All of that movement makes this the perfect time for an updated ranking of the top players in the sport — along with some of the biggest risers of the season — heading into the final weeks of the minor league season.
This is my ranking of these players for the long term, considering their upside, risk and proximity to the big leagues, in consultation with scouts and execs around the league. Here’s more on the grading tiers and lingo I use. Players in the big leagues are eligible for this update (MLB rookie eligibility rules apply here — 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on the active roster) so you will see some recently called up major leaguers.
Now let’s get to my final 2025 ranking of the best young prospects in baseball.
60 FV tier
1. Konnor Griffin, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
It has been an improbable rise for the No. 9 pick in the 2024 MLB draft, going from being a high school hitter with big questions about his swing to ranking as the top prospect in the game in roughly 12 months.
I compared Griffin’s upside to Fernando Tatis Jr. at draft time and he’s following that plan, but with even better early reports on his shortstop defense and patience. Griffin is a plus-plus runner and thrower who can be average to above defensively almost anywhere on the field and has 30-homer upside, especially if he can lift the ball a bit more.
With some performance in Double-A (he was just promoted to the level), he will move into the hallowed 65 FV prospect tier, which doesn’t always have a player in it.
2. Kevin McGonigle, SS, Detroit Tigers
I was the guy in the media high on McGonigle when he was part of a very deep prep position-player crop in the 2023 draft — and my belief in him has paid off better than I could’ve expected so far.
The concerns at draft time were that his power/speed combo and odds to stick at shortstop weren’t strong enough to warrant going higher than 37th overall (where Detroit took him). He has been at least a passable shortstop as a pro and has a real shot to stick long-term. His power (by literally any measure) is now above average, if not plus.
McGonigle’s feel and on-base skills were never in question, so now he looks like he could be above average at everything in the batter’s box and closer to average on the bases and in the field.
3. Jesus Made, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
Made leapt onto the prospect scene last summer into the middle of the top 100 amid one of the best DSL performances we’ve ever seen. He has continued to deliver with an .801 OPS across both Single-A levels as a 17- and 18-year-old this season.
Made is an above-average contact/patience threat with at least plus power, though his flatter swing plane is keeping his homer totals down at the moment.
4. Samuel Basallo, C, Baltimore Orioles
Basallo has legit 40-homer potential and might be an every-day catcher. He is a good enough framer and blocker, and he has a plus arm, though his exchange and accuracy are lacking a bit.
The reasons I have him just behind Made are because of the rocky development path catchers typically take and the fact that Basallo still tends to chase pitches out of the strike zone, which could undermine both his on-base and power potential against big league pitching.
That said, Basallo has to be ranked high because he’s a 21-year-old catcher who just got called up to the majors and could lead the league in homers in a few years.
5. Leo De Vries, SS, Athletics
In the most A.J. Preller trade to date, the Padres sent De Vries to the A’s at the deadline in a package for reliever Mason Miller.
Though he is playing shortstop now, De Vries is a below-average runner and it’s looking more likely that he’ll need to slide over to third base.
The negatives end there as De Vries has a plus arm, above-average-to-plus power, great feel to pull and lift to get to that power in games, average-to-above contact/patience and all of that from an 18-year-old switch-hitter who is already playing in High-A.
There is some thought that he looks a little more like a very good player than a potential star, but either way De Vries is a very high probability, strong, every-day infielder with a shot to be an impact player.
6. Max Clark, CF, Detroit Tigers
Clark was the No. 3 pick in the 2023 draft, and everything has basically gone to plan since Detroit selected him.
He is a plus runner who fits in center field defensively, and he has plus contact skills and plus pitch selection at the plate. He’ll probably hit 20 homers in his best seasons but should hover around 15 on an annual basis with lots of doubles and triples.
7. Colt Emerson, SS, Seattle Mariners
Emerson was the 22nd pick in that same 2023 draft as Clark, and it quickly became apparent that he was underrated.
He is now in Double-A and looks like he can be an every-day lefty-hitting MLB shortstop with above-average on-base percentages and 20ish homers.
8. Sebastian Walcott, SS, Texas Rangers
The sales pitch is easy here: Walcott is a 6-foot-4 potential long-term shortstop with big power.
That length to his frame creates plus-plus power potential — but also some swing-and-miss in the zone. His pitch selection is solid, but the main issue right now is that his flat swing plane is keeping him from posting homer totals that match his raw power.
9. Travis Bazzana, 2B, Cleveland Guardians
Bazzana was the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft but doesn’t have the conventional superstar upside you might associate with that.
He is a plus runner and fine second-base defender whose best offensive traits are his patience and pull/lift ability. His bat-to-ball and raw power are close to average, but he should post plus on-base percentages and hit 20ish homers annually.
10. Aidan Miller, SS, Philadelphia Phillies
Miller was another 2023 draft prep position player from the deep group that produced McGonigle, Clark and Emerson ranked above on this list.
He is on the shortstop/third base defensive spectrum but has improved defensively (and seems quicker on the basepaths, too) to the point that I think he can be an average defensive option at shortstop — though some teams would likely move him if they have a superior option.
Miller has above-average-to-plus raw power right now but still has some work to do to fully tap into it in games, though he has been productive with 21 homers and 70 stolen bases in 196 games the past two seasons.
11. Walker Jenkins, CF, Minnesota Twins
Jenkins has played only 163 regular-season professional games since going No. 5 in the 2023 draft because of various injuries. His .301/.405/.471 line with 16 homers and 34 stolen bases in those games while playing almost exclusively center field shows his power/speed combo and advanced feel to hit.
He is above average at basically everything on a baseball field, but durability has been an issue and that cost him a few spots on this list.
12. Josue De Paula, LF, Los Angeles Dodgers
I can’t shake the comp a scout gave me on De Paula a few years ago: Yordan Alvarez.
De Paula is a better runner and defender — he’s fine in left field — than the Astros slugger, but I don’t think he’ll be quite as elite at the plate. That said, De Paula should post plus on-base percentages buoyed by big walk rates and should grow into 25-30 homer seasons as he taps into his power.
13. Bubba Chandler, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
The first pitcher on this list didn’t crack the top dozen spots because of both the risks of pitching prospects in general and also a bit of a dip in who is still eligible as Chase Burns and Jacob Misiorowski recently graduated.
Chandler’s past nine starts in Triple-A have been just OK — 42 innings, 50 hits, 5 home runs, 24 walks, 47 strikeouts, 4.93 ERA. So, while he seemed ready for a big league look before this stretch, it’s now harder for the Pirates to make the move — but Pittsburgh did decide to call up Chandler for his debut coming later this week.
He still has front-line potential though, with a repertoire headlined by a plus fastball that sits 96-100 and hits 102 mph.
55 FV tier
14. JJ Wetherholt, SS, St. Louis Cardinals
15. Thomas White, LHP, Miami Marlins
16. Kade Anderson, LHP, Seattle Mariners
17. Ethan Holliday, SS, Colorado Rockies
18. Jett Williams, SS, New York Mets
19. Nolan McLean, RHP, New York Mets
20. Eli Willits, SS, Washington Nationals
21. Jonah Tong, RHP, New York Mets
22. Andrew Painter, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
23. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks
Lawlar is a sure shortstop in Triple-A and has grown into plus raw power, but has had some health, contact and consistency issues over the past few years. Wetherholt and Williams are also Triple-A shortstops but might move off the position depending on what their big league teams need.
The top three players on my 2025 MLB draft board went in the top four picks and fall into this tier: Anderson, Holliday and Willits.
White, McLean and Tong are all arrow-up prospects this season, joining Painter on the verge of the big leagues as potential front-line starters. I go back and forth on Tong vs. McLean: Tong has more command and a better changeup while McLean has multiple standout breaking pitches.
50 FV tier
24. Carson Williams, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
25. Franklin Arias, SS, Boston Red Sox
26. Eduardo Tait, C, Minnesota Twins
27. Carson Benge, CF, New York Mets
28. Luis Pena, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
29. Bryce Eldridge, 1B, San Francisco Giants
30. Luke Keaschall, 2B, Minnesota Twins
31. Sal Stewart, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
32. Seth Hernandez, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
33. Payton Tolle, LHP, Boston Red Sox
34. Arjun Nimmala, SS, Toronto Blue Jays
35. Trey Yesavage, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
36. Bryce Rainer, SS, Detroit Tigers
37. Rainiel Rodriguez, C, St. Louis Cardinals
38. Chase DeLauter, RF, Cleveland Guardians
39. Colson Montgomery, SS, Chicago White Sox
40. Liam Doyle, LHP, St. Louis Cardinals
41. Moises Ballesteros, C, Chicago Cubs
42. Angel Genao, SS, Cleveland Guardians
43. Ryan Sloan, RHP, Seattle Mariners
44. Eduardo Quintero, CF, Los Angeles Dodgers
45. George Lombard Jr., SS, New York Yankees
46. Zyhir Hope, RF, Los Angeles Dodgers
47. Gage Jump, LHP, Athletics
48. Rhett Lowder, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
49. Owen Caissie, RF, Chicago Cubs
50. Josuar Gonzalez, SS, San Francisco Giants
The 55 FV tier tends to be shallower at this time of year because there has been so much movement and the top end of the list is hollowed out by graduations; over the winter another dozen or so prospects will slide up a tier.
Keaschall and Montgomery (whose season has been a roller coaster, but he is now red-hot) should graduate soon and the majority of these players will be in the big leagues at some point next season.
Arias is a standout defender and contact hitter who needs to tap into more power but is just 19 years old. Tait was the headliner of the Jhoan Duran trade and could hit 25-30 homers as an every-day catcher.
On the pitching side, Hernandez was the No. 5 pick in July and could move up a tier with a hot start next season, while Tolle and Yesavage are arrow-up college arms from the 2024 draft who should be in the big leagues next season.
Rodriguez and Gonzalez are two of the risers from the previous list; Rodriguez has a real shot to stick behind the plate and hit 25 homers, while Gonzalez was the top signee from the January international class and has had a hot debut in the DSL. He could stick at shortstop, hit 20 homers and post plus on-base percentages but obviously has a long way to go. I won’t project the same rise for Gonzalez as Jesus Made and Luis Pena, but those were the two standout names from the DSL at this time last year.
51. JoJo Parker, SS, Toronto Blue Jays
52. Aiva Arquette, SS, Miami Marlins
53. Slade Caldwell, CF, Arizona Diamondbacks
54. Josue Briceno, C, Detroit Tigers
55. Theo Gillen, CF, Tampa Bay Rays
56. Mike Sirota, CF, Los Angeles Dodgers
57. Emmanuel Rodriguez, CF, Minnesota Twins
58. Jamie Arnold, LHP, Athletics
59. Robby Snelling, LHP, Miami Marlins
60. Khal Stephen, RHP, Cleveland Guardians
61. Troy Melton, RHP, Detroit Tigers
62. Logan Henderson, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
63. Jonny Farmelo, CF, Seattle Mariners
64. Ethan Salas, C, San Diego Padres
65. Harry Ford, C, Seattle Mariners
66. Noah Schultz, LHP, Chicago White Sox
67. Michael Arroyo, 2B, Seattle Mariners
68. Carter Jensen, C, Kansas City Royals
69. Cam Schlittler, RHP, New York Yankees
70. Luis Morales, RHP, Athletics
71. Travis Sykora, RHP, Washington Nationals
72. Ricky Tiedemann, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays
73. Alex Freeland, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
74. A.J. Ewing, CF, New York Mets
75. Cooper Pratt, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
Parker and Arquette (and Carlson just below) were the top position players in the 2025 draft outside of that top tier of Holliday and Willits. Caldwell and Gillen are arrow-up prep position players from the 2024 first-round group. Arnold was a borderline shocking drop to the No. 11 pick in the 2025 draft, largely tied to how hard his fastball was hit in college, but I think he still has mid-rotation upside.
Snelling, Stephen and Henderson have all been arrow-up this year mostly due to command and execution rather than a jump in raw stuff, though Snelling’s raw stuff has been a bit better. Schlittler and Morales are in the big leagues while Tiedemann is almost back from elbow surgery and Sykora is about to undergo surgery. Schultz and Salas have had tough seasons, but the tools are still there.
76. Caleb Bonemer, SS, Chicago White Sox
77. Billy Carlson, SS, Chicago White Sox
78. Cam Caminiti, LHP, Atlanta Braves
79. Hagen Smith, LHP, Chicago White Sox
80. Didier Fuentes, RHP, Atlanta Braves
81. Spencer Jones, CF, New York Yankees
82. Connor Prielipp, LHP, Minnesota Twins
83. Brandon Sproat, RHP, New York Mets
84. Tink Hence, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
85. Emil Morales, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
86. Lazaro Montes, RF, Seattle Mariners
87. Jarlin Susana, RHP, Washington Nationals
88. Jakob Marsee, CF, Miami Marlins
89. Jefferson Rojas, SS, Chicago Cubs
90. Luke Adams, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers
91. Joe Mack, C, Miami Marlins
92. Ryan Waldschmidt, LF, Arizona Diamondbacks
93. Jeferson Quero, C, Milwaukee Brewers
94. Dylan Beavers, RF, Baltimore Orioles
95. Trey Gibson, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
96. Jurrangelo Cijntje, RHP/LHP, Seattle Mariners
97. Leonardo Bernal, C, St. Louis Cardinals
98. Charlee Soto, RHP, Minnesota Twins
99. Jackson Ferris, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
100. Jaxon Wiggins, RHP, Chicago Cubs
The White Sox and Braves make up the top of this section of the list. Fuentes had a tough big league debut, while Caminiti’s slider/arm speed taking one more step forward could vault him up this list. Smith, like Schultz, has had trouble throwing strikes this year, but the potential is still there. Bonemer had a loud pro debut while Carlson’s early returns will be watched closely as his age and offensive outlook put him just behind Parker and Arquette for some teams.
Jones has been red-hot of late but still has an uncertain outlook due to his long track record of contact issues and not hitting 20 homers in a season until his age-24 season. Speaking of red-hot, Marsee’s improved center-field defense, solid Triple-A showing and shocking MLB look allowed him to sneak onto the list before graduating.
Prielipp was on the shelf with elbow issues for years (30 total innings pitched in 2023-24), but now looks like a potential impact arm, likely in shorter stints. Sproat and Gibson could impact their teams early next season. Montes could hit 30 homers if it all clicks in the big leagues. Morales could be a 6-3 every-day shortstop who hits 25 homers annually.
10 players in contention who weren’t in the preseason top 200
Luke Dickerson, SS, Washington Nationals
Kyle Karros, 3B, Colorado Rockies
Caden Scarborough, RHP, Texas Rangers
Edward Florentino, 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates
Johnny King, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Jacob Reimer, 3B, New York Mets
Jhonny Level, SS, San Francisco Giants
C.J. Kayfus, 1B, Cleveland Guardians
Josh Adamczewski, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers
Juneiker Caceres, RF, Cleveland Guardians
Dickerson probably isn’t a shortstop and needs to lift the ball more, but he has impact tools. Karros and Kayfus are in the big leagues, so they probably aren’t secrets. Florentino is a surprisingly polished pull-and-lift left-handed power hitter but needs to prove it at three more levels of the minors, and some scouts are still dubious.
King and Scarborough could be No. 2/No. 3 starters if their command continues to improve. Caceres is showing signs of developing into a strong every-day player with 25-homer upside. Adamczewski, Level and Reimer are not long-term shortstops, but they can all stick in the infield, they can hit and they all have above-average power potential with strong performances this season.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Sports2 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment11 months agoHere are the best electric bikes you can buy at every price level in October 2024