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The 2023 MLB playoffs are here with the wild-card round beginning Tuesday at 3 p.m. ET. The American League best-of-three series will feature the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays, with the winner facing the Baltimore Orioles, and the Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins playing for the right to square off with the defending champion Houston Astros in the division series. In the National League, the winner of the Arizona Diamondbacks and Milwaukee Brewers series will play the Los Angeles Dodgers, while the Atlanta Braves await the winner of the showdown between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Miami Marlins.

Are chalk plays the right move this October?

The past three World Series champions, the Atlanta Braves (+275, 2021 winner), Los Angeles Dodgers (+475, 2020 winner) and Houston Astros (+500, 2022 winner), are the top three in terms of title odds this October. They’re closely followed by the American League’s winningest team, the Baltimore Orioles (+650).

That said, each enters the postseason facing questions that might not have been present a few short weeks ago.

The Braves, considered the prohibitive favorites, have two key rotation members in Max Fried and Charlie Morton currently on the injured list.

The Dodgers, playing in their 11th straight October and winners of 10 division titles in that time, have a rotation fronted by 35-year-old Clayton Kershaw and with only one other active pitcher (Bobby Miller) who has made more than 12 starts for them.

The Astros squeaked into an AL West title on the regular season’s final day, but otherwise were a .500 team over the season’s final seven weeks.

The Orioles, meanwhile, learned on Saturday that closer Felix Bautista, a key cog in one of the game’s best bullpens, requires Tommy John surgery and will not be back to compete this postseason.

Short series, especially in the postseason’s early stages, can breed Cinderella stories. We saw it just last year with the Phillies’ charge into the World Series, and they might be a popular pick to do it again in 2023 (+1400 odds). The Brewers, behind their rotational top three (Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta), might move the needle for bettors (+1800).

Who do our analysts pick to go all the way this October? Tristan H. Cockcroft, Eric Karabell,Todd Zola and Tyler Fulghum share their picks.

Picks represent the analyst’s comfort with betting on the specified odds and does not imply bets they would make if odds weren’t considered. Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Wild-card round (best of 3)

Toronto Blue Jays (-114) vs. Minnesota Twins -105
Texas Rangers (+152) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-180)
Arizona Diamondbacks (+160) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-190)
Miami Marlins (+170) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-200)

Cockcroft: Blue Jays (-114) and Rangers (+152): The Blue Jays might’ve opened as underdogs and transformed into slight favorites, but I still see value in them, with Kevin Gausman lined up to open that series and pretty good two-three men in Jose Berrios and Chris Bassitt behind him. Additionally, the Blue Jays’ offense seems much more potent to me than its stat-sheet results indicated this year. Sure, the Twins have a solid one-two-three of their own in Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray, but they also have a putrid October track record, and one that I think might again haunt them. The Twins have lost 15 consecutive postseason games — I do think that streak ends — and nine consecutive postseason series — I don’t think that gets snapped. Honorable mention goes to the Rangers, as the AL’s underdogs stand further out.

Karabell: Phillies (-200) and Brewers (-190) in the NL. Perhaps the odds are not so great, but I like the Phillies and Brewers to advance in the National League, and perhaps mirror what happened in the NL last season when the wild-card entrants knocked off teams with more wins to advance to the NL Championship Series. I will say that the odds on the Marlins are quite a bargain. They send lefties to the mound the first two games in Philly, and they could make things difficult for the home team, quickly.

Blue Jays (-114) in the AL: I want to pick the Twins because, let’s face it, the current players have nothing to do with the fact this franchise last won a playoff game when Eisenhower was president. (OK, it was 2004. Stop it.) The problem is several key hitters are injured (Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa), and even if they play this week, they might not be at full health. I take the Blue Jays, even though the odds aren’t so great for a road team, and the Rays in the AL.

Zola: Rays (-180) and Blue Jays (-114): The Rangers certainly played their way in with a strong September, but their first-half offense lived off an unsustainably high batting average with runners in scoring position. I’m also concerned injuries have stripped their rotation of ample quality arms and the bullpen is suspect. The Rays have as many injuries, but they have better bandages and are a team with a style to win in the playoffs. I was really hoping the Twins would be bigger underdogs as I think they could have pulled off the upset, but with the Blue Jays being the slight favorite, the odds flip in their favor. Toronto hasn’t played to its full capability all season, and there is no reason to think it’ll start now … well other than “on paper.” I’ll back “on paper.”

Fulghum: Blue Jays (-114) and Phillies (-200). Both of these picks in the Wild Card round come down to decided pitching advantages. For Toronto, Kevin Gausman is a true shut down ace with a dominant 31.1 K% this season. Minnesota’s lineup is not only not healthy, but also likes to swing and miss. If the Toronto bats live up to expectation based on name (looking at you George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.), then they should be able to take this series.

Philadelphia was one of the hottest teams in baseball the second half of the season mainly due to their offense finally starting to click. With Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola providing two starts in this series, I like the Phillies chances of advancing to the NLDS.

World Series matchup predictions

American League champion: Houston (+200), Baltimore (+280), Tampa Bay (+500), Texas (+700), Minnesota (+800), Toronto (+800)
National League champion: Atlanta (+115), Los Angeles (+225), Philadelphia (+675), Milwaukee (+900), Arizona (+1800), Miami (+1800)

Cockcroft: Philadelphia Phillies (+675) and Toronto Blue Jays (+800): The Phillies, Milwaukee Brewers (+950) and Blue Jays have appealing odds in a postseason that could be more of a toss-up than people think. I’ll take the Phillies, less of a “dark horse” this year than last but with a stronger roster this year than last, and the Blue Jays, for those odds. It’s a 1993 rematch, 30 years later! Joe Carter would be proud. (And Eric would not, of my making the reference.)

Karabell: Philadelphia Phillies (+675) and Tampa Bay Rays (+500): Shockingly, I happen to agree the Phillies have a shot to do what they did a season ago, because they have a solid one-two rotation punch and what looks like the better bullpen than Atlanta. Yes, the Braves hit home runs. They score runs. Ronald Acuna Jr. is awesome. Bryce Harper is pretty good, too. Not surprisingly, I like Philadelphia’s odds to represent the NL again. In the AL, I like the Rays. Tampa Bay is a deep team with plenty of its own power and a strong, matchup bullpen. How about a 2008 WS rematch?

Zola: Milwaukee Brewers (+900) and Toronto Blue Jays (+800): Most like to refer to the Brewers’ “Big Two.” Freddy Peralta begs to differ. Milwaukee’s front three can hang with anyone. Sure the Brewers’ hitting is pedestrian, but they have enough to score ample runs in playoff baseball, and the bullpen can get the job done. As mentioned previously, the Toronto roster has all the necessary parts; they just need to come together at the right time.

World Series winner

Brave (+275), Dodgers (+475), Astros (+500), Orioles (+650), Rays (+1200), Phillies (+1400), Rangers (+1600), Brewers (+1800), Blue Jays (+1800), Twins (+2000), Diamondbacks (+3000), Marlins (+3300)

Cockcroft: Phillies (+1400): I picked the Braves to win on our baseball pages, but I really like the Phillies’ World Series odds — even more so than I do as simply National League champions. Many of the traits that took this team deep into October last year remain, and the aforementioned flaws that have cropped up for many of the popular contenders — this year’s Dodgers and Astros, for example, are not their 2022 models — make speculating on a midtier World Series pick (including the Rangers, Brewers or Blue Jays) potentially lucrative.

Karabell: The Phillies and Rays (+1200) stand out as bargains with their odds, as do the Brewers (+1800) and Blue Jays (+1800). Really, a wild-card team can win this World Series. Even the top teams are flawed in some way.

Fulghum: I get the appeal of the Phillies at +1400 based on what they did last postseason and how they closed out the final couple months this regular season, but now that the Astros were able to fall into a wild card bye and added Justin Verlander at the deadline, it seems like they’re primed for another deep run. If I was only making one bet in this market, I think it would be Houston at +500.

Zola: To be consistent, this should be one of the teams backed to make the World Series. If my narrative is the Blue Jays (+1800) come together in the postseason, they should be who I back to win the whole thing.

World Series MVP

Cockcroft: Michael Harris II (+3300). Here’s where you can get some good value on one of the Braves, my straight-up pick to win it all. Harris was a second-half dynamo, with .325/.356/.522 numbers in 71 games, earning himself higher lineup placement than his previous bottom-of-the-order position in the process. He’ll need to shake the memory of what was a forgettable 2022 division series showing (1-for-14, no extra-base hits, two strikeouts). Spencer Strider (+2200), the probable October staff ace, deserves an honorable mention.

Karabell: Well, if I’m going to stubbornly go with the Phillies, then the odds on 1B Bryce Harper (+5000) and SP Zack Wheeler (+7500) seem fitting. Harper had a great October last season, and Wheeler was hardly pleased when he was removed in the sixth inning of Game 6 with a lead, which turned into his loss. Revenge!

Zola: It appears my betting lean is on the Blue Jays, so let’s go all-in and back Bo Bichette at (+5000) for the World Series MVP. He does things with some flair and plays shortstop, which can help in a subjective vote, and that gives him the edge over Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+7500).

Fulghum: Since I like the Astros, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker make a lot of sense at +1000, but Alex Bregman is sitting there at +3300. Don’t pass that up if you believe this team is capable of winning it all. Last year, Bregman slashed .294/.379/.568 in 13 postseason games. If he can replicate those numbers, he’ll be in the mix. He’s already got two rings and an All-Star Game MVP trophy at home so we know he’s capable of rising to the occasion.

Other appealing bets

Cockcroft: Devin Williams as postseason saves leader (+1000). The Brewers are sure to be a popular underdog choice this postseason, thanks to their aforementioned rotational top three, but what also makes them compelling on the pitching side is their closer, Williams. As the playoff team that averaged the second-fewest runs per game on offense but with the best ERA, the Brewers will need to win many close games to advance to the title. Williams could play a Mariano Rivera-in-his-heyday critical postseason role for the 2023 Brewers.

Karabell: I do not think the Phillies sweep the Marlins. In fact, with excellent LHP Jesus Luzardo on the mound, Miami’s Game 1 odds (+143) are sweet.

Zola: championship-winning league: National (-130): Yes, I know the Blue Jays are in the American League, but those calls were based on the respective team odds. In an either/or, American vs. National when the odds are relatively close, I’ll support the league with the stronger overall field, and that’s the Senior Circuit.

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Will the Cubs go all-in at the deadline? Breaking down Chicago’s potential trade options

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Will the Cubs go all-in at the deadline? Breaking down Chicago's potential trade options

MILWAUKEE — In the midst of a heavyweight battle for first place in the National League Central, the Chicago Cubs are still scouring the landscape for help before Thursday’s MLB trade deadline. On their wish list: two starters, a reliever, a potential upgrade at third base and perhaps a backup center fielder.

The man to get it done? President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, who received a multiyear contract extension Monday as ownership believes he’s the right person to lead the organization during this trade deadline and beyond.

With such a lengthy to-do list, why hasn’t Hoyer made a move yet with just days left to deal? What teams want for those players has been sky high at the top and middle of the market, according to sources familiar with the Cubs’ situation.

Sometimes, a deadline is all it takes to make things happen.

“No one’s untouchable,” Hoyer said recently. “But at the same time, we have a lot of really good prospects and you have to feel like you’re getting commensurate value.”

While the Cubs attempt to find the right fits for their deadline needs, here is where things stand at each area they hope to address.


Starting pitching

Of all their needs, the Cubs view finding help on the mound to be their biggest priority, according to sources familiar with their thinking.

They rank 14th in the majors in starting pitching ERA, and their need for help is amplified by their lack of depth after Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga at the top of the rotation.

“They’ve known that was a need since Justin Steele went down,” a rival executive said.

The Cubs have “kicked the tires in a lot of places” in their search for pitching, one American League source said.

That includes starting pitchers at the top of this year’s deadline like Washington Nationals star MacKenzie Gore, those in the middle like Chicago White Sox righty Adrian Houser and even a player returning from injury in Cleveland Guardians starter Shane Bieber. Bieber could be this year’s deadline version of Boyd, who helped Cleveland down the stretch last year before signing with the Cubs in the offseason.

The Cubs have talked at various times to the Miami Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays about their potentially available starters and to the Pittsburgh Pirates about Mitch Keller, as well as a handful of other teams, according to sources. The Cubs are also candidates to land one of Arizona’s available pitchers — though, after another so-so performance by Zac Gallen over the weekend, righty Merrill Kelly, 37, is the more reliable of the two Diamondbacks pitchers. And they also have shown interest in Baltimore’s Zach Eflin.

“The Cubs are ready to pounce if the prices come down,” another source said.

The return needed to land Gore would be astronomical and is prohibitive to a deal for the strikeout artist. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel has said that the key player the Nationals are rumored to want for Gore is third baseman Matt Shaw, who isn’t on the table.

The White Sox are looking for a prospect ranked in the teens for Houser and even Gore’s teammate, Michael Soroka, would take a higher-than-expected return despite a 4.87 ERA.

The Cubs are determined to enter August with a deeper rotation, so a move is likely. But which team lowers its demands is still the big question.


Relief pitching

Similar to the starters, the Cubs’ bullpen also ranks in the middle of the pack in ERA this season, with clear opportunities for improvement if Chicago can find the right deadline match and multiple relievers needed for the high stakes of the months ahead. The Cubs’ core group of Daniel Palencia, Caleb Thielbar, Ryan Brasier, Drew Pomeranz and Brad Keller has been solid, but those latter few have shown some cracks recently. This is also Palencia’s first chance at being a closer, so the Cubs wouldn’t mind pairing someone with some experience, considering Ryan Pressly has been shaky at best.

The Cubs are among the teams that would love to acquire either Griffin Jax or Danny Coulombe or closer Jhoan Duran from the Minnesota Twins. But just as they do for the available starting pitchers, the Cubs have their ‘irons in the fire’ for the relievers as well, according to the AL source.

There is one closer who could be on the move but can be ruled out for the Cubs — Ryan Helsley, who plays for the rival Cardinals. But Nationals reliever Kyle Finnegan, Pirates closer David Bednar, Braves righty Raisel Iglesias and Rays ninth-inning man Pete Fairbanks are all possibilities if Duran isn’t attainable.


Third base

The first trade deadline domino at third base fell last week when the New York Yankees acquired Ryan McMahon from the Colorado Rockies. But the Cubs weren’t really in on McMahon, according to league sources, which provides a window into how they are approaching the hot corner this month.

Shaw has been much better recently, including posting a ..387/.406/.839 slash line since the All-Star break while playing stellar defense.

“Matt is getting a great opportunity,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell said. “He’s doing the best to take advantage of it. … You should have to earn your spots on teams like this. That’s completely fair. It doesn’t get easier. You have to earn that. Matt is doing a great job of that.”

Shaw’s improvement has given Chicago confidence that he can handle the position the rest of this season. It also allows the Cubs to see if a big deal develops instead of forcing one to fill a lineup spot.

Chicago is in constant contact with the Arizona Diamondbacks about possibly acquiring third baseman Eugenio Suarez and Kelly in what likely would be the biggest blockbuster of this deadline. It’s probably a long shot because Chicago’s biggest need is on the mound, but it’s not impossible.


What the Cubs have to offer

Though expectations on trade return are bound to come down somewhat in the coming days, the reality of this deadline is that there are more teams looking to add than subtract, so it will take big offers to land the best players available.

The Cubs are willing to part with their top prospect, OF Owen Caissie, but not for a player they’ll have for one season. The slugging outfielder is one of the three players drawing the most interest from opposing teams, along with Shaw and Double-A pitcher Jaxon Wiggins. Chicago has made 22-year-old outfielder Kevin Alcantara available, but so far, he hasn’t drawn the interest the other players have.

“I mean that’s one of the fun parts of this job is you kind of have to alter your playbook,” Hoyer said about being nimble and switching directions.

One thing the Cubs won’t do this year is blow up their farm system to increase their playoff odds — which sit at 94.7%, according to FanGraphs.

The Cubs are in a different place this July than they were in 2016, when they moved their No.1 prospect — Gleyber Torres — for closer Aroldis Chapman despite having about a 99% chance of making the postseason. But the move helped them win the World Series.

If that deadline is what all-in looks like on the North Side, the vibe heading into Thursday could be best described as “mostly-in.”

The Cubs are highly motivated to return to the postseason after a prolonged absence, and an aggressive approach is still expected as Chicago prepares for a division race that could be a battle to the end. But the Cubs’ level of aggressiveness remains to be seen.

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With Judge out, Yankees trade for OF Slater

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With Judge out, Yankees trade for OF Slater

The Yankees traded for outfielder Austin Slater from the White Sox on Wednesday, as New York continues to bolster a roster currently without superstar outfielder Aaron Judge ahead of Thursday’s trade deadline.

The White Sox acquired minor league pitcher Gage Ziehl in return.

Slater is batting .236 with five home runs and a .721 OPS in 51 games this season, but like recent Yankees acquisition Amed Rosario, he has been very productive against left-handed pitchers with a .261 batting average, .859 OPS and all five of his home runs coming in 77 plate appearances against them.

“Really enjoyed my time here and met some incredible people,” Slater said of the White Sox. “Super fun clubhouse to be in. But then also really excited to go play for the Yankees. One of those teams as a kid you always dream about playing for. And they are right in a race for the playoffs. Excited to go there and try to help them out.”

The 32-year-old right-handed hitter missed over a month between April and May with a torn meniscus in his right knee. He signed a one-year, $1.75 million deal with Chicago in November, making him a rental for the Yankees before reaching free agency again this offseason.

Slater has started 15 games in right field, nine in left field and one as designated hitter this season. He provides the Yankees further insurance should Judge, who is on the 10-day injured list with a flexor strain, not return to the outfield for the remainder of the year.

As of now, the Yankees hope Judge will return in early August after the 10-day minimum absence to serve as their designated hitter and begin a throwing program with the goal of returning to right field this season. Giancarlo Stanton, the club’s everyday designated hitter, began working out in right field this week to prepare for the possibility of playing the field for the first time since 2023.

Slater also offers Yankees manager Aaron Boone more lineup and in-game flexibility to counter left-handed pitchers with an outfield group that leans heavily left-handed. With Judge on the injured list, the Yankees don’t have a right-handed-hitting primary outfielder on the active roster; Trent Grisham and Cody Bellinger are left-handed, and Jasson Dominguez, a switch-hitter, has a .585 OPS in 98 plate appearances batting from the right side this season. Slater figures to start games over Dominguez against left-handed pitchers.

Slater spent the first seven-plus seasons of his career with the San Francisco Giants before being traded to the Cincinnati Reds last summer. New York will be Slater’s fifth team in just over a year.

“At this point, we’re a little more prepared than we were last year,” Slater said. “It was something, there was always writing on the wall that it could happen. That maybe helped us mentally prepare a little bit more this year.”

Rosario, a utility man acquired from the Washington Nationals on Saturday, gives Boone another right-handed-hitting corner outfield option, but he is also slated to play second and third base.

Ziehl, 22, was a fourth-round pick by the Yankees last year. The right-hander has posted a 4.15 ERA in 16 appearances (15 starts) between three levels this season, topping out with one start in Double-A.

In addition to Slater and Rosario, the Yankees have traded for veteran third baseman Ryan McMahon in the past week. The Yankees remain in the market for pitching, both starters and relievers before Thursday’s 6 p.m. ET deadline, sources said.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Cubs’ Happ: No IL needed after foul ball off shin

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Cubs' Happ: No IL needed after foul ball off shin

MILWAUKEE — Chicago Cubs outfielder Ian Happ won’t require a stint on the injured list after fouling a ball off his shin against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Happ wasn’t in the lineup for Wednesday’s series finale but said he could be available if necessary. X-rays taken on Happ’s shin were negative.

“Nothing serious,” Happ said before the game, adding that he did feel “a little sore and stiff.”

The incident occurred Tuesday during the eighth inning of the Cubs’ 9-3 loss to the Brewers and caused him to exit the game. Happ also had said Tuesday he felt lightheaded as a result of the pain coming from his shin.

“It was something like, if you feel like you’re going to pass out or throw up on the field, you probably shouldn’t continue the at bat,” Happ said before Wednesday’s game.

Happ said he generally doesn’t wear shin guards when he’s at the plate. That likely will change for at least a little bit.

“I don’t love the way they feel,” Happ said. “I don’t like the bulkiness of them, so I try not to (wear them). But when I hit right-handed now for a week or two, I’ll have one on. And then once it goes away, we’ll do it again.”

Although Happ avoided a stint on the injured list, the Cubs did make a move Wednesday by calling up catcher Moisés Ballesteros from Triple-A Iowa and designating utilityman Vidal Bruján for assignment. Ballesteros was batting seventh as a designated hitter in the Cubs’ lineup Wednesday.

“It was basically just trying to put the best lineup out there today, essentially,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell said. “In moving on from Bruján, moving forward, we’re probably going to have to make some other changes to the roster just to get more outfield depth. But for today, it made sense.”

Ballesteros, 21, has batted .332 with a .393 on-base percentage, .496 slugging percentage, nine homers, 57 RBI and four steals in 86 games with Iowa. He went 3 for 18 with three RBI in five games with Chicago earlier this season.

He said that earlier stint in the big leagues taught him to be more patient.

“As much as we want to get out there and do things too perfect, we’ve just got to stick to what you do and just try not to do too much,” Ballesteros said through an interpreter.

Bruján, 27, hit .222 with a .234 on-bae percentage, no homers, three RBI and two steals in 36 games.

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