2023 MLB playoffs: Our predictions from the wild-card games through the World Series
The 2023 MLB playoffs kick off on Tuesday afternoon, with 12 teams hoping to raise this year’s World Series trophy.
The Braves — who enter October with MLB’s best record — look to win their second World Series title in three years, while the Phillies will try to take down their NL East foe to return to the Fall Classic — and win it this year. The Astros, on the other hand, want to become baseball’s first repeat champions since the Yankees won three straight from 1998 to 2000. And the Orioles hope to ride their momentum from the regular season all the way to their first title in 40 years.
Who will win each round? And which squad will be the last standing at the end of the postseason? We asked more than 25 of our MLB experts — from ESPN.com, TV, Stats & Information and more — to give us their predictions.
Below are their picks for the wild-card winners (two teams will make it out of each league), division series winners, league championship series winners and World Series champion.
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American League Wild Card Series
ALWC: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins
Toronto Blue Jays 17
Minnesota Twins 10
Our voters seem to be split between Minnesota and Toronto. Why do you think the Twins will prevail? This is a tight matchup between two franchises really starved for some postseason validation. The Twins’ offense has been better than Toronto’s in recent weeks, which is not something you’d guess just looking at the names of who has been available. The rotation matchup is fantastic, and a lot hinges on Pablo Lopez against Kevin Gausman in Game 1. When and if it goes to the bullpen, I really like the way Minnesota’s current pecking order stacks up, with Chris Paddack back on the mound, Kenta Maeda able to work the middle innings and, of course, Jhoan Duran waiting at the end. The margins are somewhere between small and invisible, but I like the Twins in three. — Bradford Doolittle
ALWC: Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 22
Texas Rangers 5
How do the Rangers come out of the wild-card series triumphant against the 99-win Rays? When the Rangers’ lineup is whole — which it is again — it is the most potent in the AL. Corey Seager and Josh Jung both missed extended time because of injury, but this team went 50-31 and averaged 5.5 runs/game when they both played. That, for me, is the tiebreaker in what is practically a coin-flip series. — Paul Hembekides
National League Wild Card Series
NLWC: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers 24
Arizona Diamondbacks 3
The D-backs are the overwhelming underdog in our voters’ eyes. How do you think they pull off the upset? The Brewers have the best pitching staff in the NL, and quite possibly the entire postseason. They are really hard to score runs against, and if anyone other than the Braves is going to be representing the NL in the World Series, I think it’s going to be the Brewers. But that’s where what Arizona does best comes into play. The D-backs stole the second-most bases in baseball and struck out fewer times than all but three teams. They put the ball in play and they manufacture runs. This kind of approach has a better chance against Milwaukee than an all-or-nothing home run-oriented offense, and, especially in a short series, that could add up to just enough scoring to pull off the upset. — Dan Mullen
NLWC: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 25
Miami Marlins 2
The Marlins surprised everyone by even making the playoffs. What makes you think they won’t get past Philly? It’s not so much a problem with the Marlins; it’s that the Phillies continue to feel like a team that is built for October, especially while playing in front of their own rowdy fans. Bryce Harper will find his moment at some point. Trea Turner went ballistic for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic and is scorching hot yet again. And overall, the top part of their roster is significantly more talented and seasoned than that of the Marlins — and that really matters in small, pressure-filled October sample sizes. — Alden Gonzalez
American League Division Series
ALDS: Winner of Blue Jays-Twins vs. Houston Astros
Houston Astros 23
Toronto Blue Jays 3
Minnesota Twins 1
The Astros are our voters’ favorite here, but you chose the Jays. Why do you think they can win it? I’m not sure why so many people grant the Astros automatic entry into the ALCS. This isn’t the 2022 team — the Astros posted a middle-of-the-road 4.31 ERA from July forward, enjoyed no home-field advantage at all (they were three games under .500 at home, after being 29 over last year) and dropped all three games in Toronto against the Blue Jays’ top three rotation members in June. I think the Blue Jays caught a break with the silly no-reseeding rule, getting to face the Astros in the division series rather than the Orioles, against whom they were 3-10 in the regular season. — Tristan Cockcroft
ALDS: Winner of Rangers-Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles 15
Texas Rangers 1
Tampa Bay Rays 11
Make the case for the Orioles: When the Orioles came somewhat out of nowhere to win 83 games last season, people thought they were ahead of schedule. With a blistering 101-win pace this year, a young team that doesn’t know any better won’t be afraid of a battle-tested Rays team. The Rays’ top pitcher, Tyler Glasnow, posted an 8.22 ERA against the O’s in three starts this season. And guess who stopped the Rays’ streak of 36 consecutive scoreless innings in September? You guessed it: Baltimore. Home field will be huge here. — Clinton Yates
Make the case for the Rays: It almost doesn’t matter who the Rays play. The pitching staff generally overachieves, especially in the bullpen, and they’ll open the first few games with high-end, strikeout guys. Watch out for rookie Junior Caminero. The Rays boast plenty of power and maneuverability, and most members of the team are playoff experienced. — Eric Karabell
National League Division Series
NLDS: Winner of Diamondbacks-Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers 20
Milwaukee Brewers 7
What makes the Dodgers a threat in October? My theory about the playoffs is that they are about proven star performers and not making mistakes due to institutional continuity and excellence. Ronald Acuna Jr., Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman would be the top three for the former, and the Braves, Dodgers and Astros would be the top three for the latter. I’ll bet on the Dodgers and Braves to beat anyone until they go head-to-head. — Kiley McDaniel
How can the Brewers upset L.A. to advance? The Brewers will send the Dodgers home this season, and they’ll do it in the most teeth-grinding way possible. Short on offense but absolutely stacked in the bullpen, the Brewers will win four games by scores of 2-1 or 3-2. There might be bunts involved. One reliever after another — Hoby Milner, Bryse Wilson, Abner Uribe, Joel Payamps and finally Devin Williams — will make nine innings feel like five or six. The Dodgers are the second-best offense in baseball, so it’s a tall task, and an admittedly preposterous idea, but the Brewers will win because bullpens win this time of year, right? — Tim Keown
NLDS: Winner of Marlins-Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves 22
Philadelphia Phillies 5
The Braves were upset by the Phillies in last year’s division series. Why do you think Atlanta has it in the bag this time around? Philadelphia pitchers will have a hard time keeping the Braves in the ballpark. Aaron Nola gave up 32 home runs — the sixth most in baseball this year — but the Braves can take anyone deep. This time, they’ll do exactly that to the Phillies. They will out-homer a good home-run-hitting team and move on to the NLCS. — Jesse Rogers
American League Championship Series
Houston Astros 9
Baltimore Orioles 9
Tampa Bay Rays 7
Toronto Blue Jays 1
Texas Rangers 1
Houston, Baltimore and Tampa Bay all received a similar number of votes. Why are the Astros your pick? The AL can be won by five, if not six, teams. I’ll take the Astros because of the way they have played since being swept at home by the Royals. They went to Seattle and won two out of three in front of loud, huge crowds. Then they went to Arizona and swept the Diamondbacks to win the AL West. Houston’s experience this time of year cannot be overstated. It doesn’t have the same depth of veteran starting pitching that it had last year, but that lineup is tremendous now that Michael Brantley is back and Yordan Alvarez is crushing. It’s corny and a cliché, but never underestimate the heart of a champion. — Tim Kurkjian
Why are the Rays yours? The Rays lost three-fifths of their rotation. They lost their entire middle infield. And yet here they are, still with a representative enough pitching staff and deep enough lineup to capture the pennant. How? Because they never stray from who they are and what they do well. Tampa Bay survived the injuries through depth — the sort of depth that, in October, plays particularly well. The depth to play platoons correctly. The depth to deploy relievers in leverage moments. Depth isn’t sexy. But in the case of the Rays, it’s enough to make up for all they lack. — Jeff Passan
National League Championship Series
Atlanta Braves 21
Philadelphia Phillies 5
Los Angeles Dodgers 1
The NL is a little more clear-cut, with the Braves the overwhelming favorite here. But you chose the Phillies. Why? It’s an upset pick. I have no illusions about that. I just really like the Phillies’ roster in a postseason context. No team can match the Braves in terms of sheer firepower, but the Phillies are in the mix for the top of the next tier. Philly’s rotation is deep and stacks up well against Atlanta’s battered group, no matter how things go in the wild-card round. The tipping-point factor to me is the Phillies’ bullpen, which has vicious stuff coming from both sides of the plate and from more than one reliever. Once we get to the LDS round and there are some built-in off-days, I think that group could carry the Phillies all the way. I can’t say the same thing about the Atlanta bullpen. — Doolittle
World Series
Atlanta Braves 21
(Matt Marrone, Jesse Rogers, Matthew Stupienski, Brianna Williams, Alden Gonzalez, Tristan Cockcroft, Karl Ravech, Enrique Rojas, Liz Finny, Michael Kay, Dan Mullen, Tim Keown, Jeff Passan, Tim Kurkjian, Peter Lawrence-Riddell, Brendan DeAngelis, Kiley McDaniel, Rachel Ullrich, Clinton Yates, David Fleming, Gregg Colli)
Philadelphia Phillies 4
(Buster Olney, Eric Karabell, Paul Hembekides, Bradford Doolittle)
Los Angeles Dodgers 1
(Jeremy Willis)
Baltimore Orioles 1
(Dave Schoenfield)
The Braves were our most popular pick. Why did you go with Atlanta here? I typically pick some series winners that aren’t favored or don’t have the best regular-season records because the playoffs are always more random than you think. But I just can’t pick against the Braves, even though that’s the chalk answer. Their offense is so overwhelming and they have Spencer Strider as their ace, not to mention a strong back end of the bullpen. Pair that with some rest and the know-how in navigating the playoffs and you’ve got a recipe for a World Series title. — McDaniel
What makes you think the Phillies can come away with the title this year? In many respects, they are better prepared for a long run through October than they were last year, when they came so close from an 87-win season to winning the whole thing. Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh, Alec Bohm and other young players on the team now have the experience of playing in the postseason, and the Phillies’ pitching staff is deeper and maybe better. They’ve also got stars who can carry the others through a big spot — Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos. Look, the Phillies have to play one more round than the Astros, Braves and Dodgers, and with that, there might well be injuries and worn-down pitchers. But this is a really dangerous team. — Olney
You were our only pick for the O’s. Explain how Baltimore wins its first World Series since 1983. The Orioles have been the AL’s most consistent team all season, winning 101 games in the toughest division. They’ve played their best baseball over the final two months, with the second-best record behind only the Dodgers. They went 51-39 against winning teams, best in the AL. They play defense and run the bases, and their lineup is better than you realize (fourth in the majors in runs on the road). Would I feel better about this prediction with a healthy Felix Bautista? Yes, but the bullpen hasn’t skipped a beat without him. Given the pitching concerns with the Braves, Dodgers and Rangers, it’s Baltimore’s year. Let the dynasty begin. — Schoenfield
The Chicago White Sox are already the worst team in the major leagues, so they didn’t need this: their rally Thursday night against the Baltimore Orioles being cut short by a controversial and game-ending runner interference call.
The play resulted in a double play for the final outs in Baltimore’s 8-6 victory.
With two on and one out in the bottom of the ninth, Andrew Benintendi popped up. Shortstop Gunnar Henderson caught the ball — umpires had called the infield fly rule anyway — for the second out, then third-base umpire Junior Valentine ruled that Andrew Vaughn interfered with Henderson on the play.
“It was a big surprise,” said Vaughn, who was the runner at second and ruled out. “I don’t feel like he was deterred from making a play. It was a high pop-up. We were all reading it. As a runner, I’ve got to read it and make sure I can get back to the bag.”
White Sox manager Pedro Grifol argued vehemently with umpires at the conclusion of the stunning final sequence.
Brutal ending to this Orioles-White Sox game. 😬
(🎥: @NBCSWhiteSox)pic.twitter.com/mRL319faFT
— theScore (@theScore) May 24, 2024
There certainly was confusion, and the play ended the rally for the White Sox, who had scored four runs in the ninth.
“I felt like we escaped there,” Orioles manager Brandon Hyde said.
Crew chief Adrian Johnson said there is no discretion when a baserunner appears to make incidental contact with a fielder — even if the play results in a defensive out.
“If he hinders the fielder in the attempt to field a batted ball, intent is not required and it’s interference,” Johnson said after Valentine made the game-ending call. “When you see the interference, you call it.”
The White Sox, who have won only once in their past seven games, will try again to gain traction during their seven-game homestand that began Thursday night.
The Orioles halted a season-worst three-game losing streak by prevailing in the series opener.
“We’re able to breathe a little bit, thankfully,” said Baltimore’s Jorge Mateo, who hit a three-run home run in the fourth inning.
The Orioles produced 13 hits, four by first baseman Ryan Mountcastle.
“We swung the bat really well,” Hyde said. “A lot of guys who had been scuffling a little bit put some really good swings on the baseball. We would have loved to see us tack on a little bit more.”
Still, the eight runs were the most in a six-game stretch for Baltimore.
The six runs allowed by the Orioles were also notable. That matched the second-most scoring by an opponent this year in any of Baltimore’s 30 victories.
On Friday, right-hander Corbin Burnes (4-2, 2.56 ERA) will start for the Orioles, going for back-to-back victories after holding the Seattle Mariners without an earned run in six innings of Baltimore’s 6-3 win Sunday. He struck out 11 for the second time this season.
“I’m happy with how my stuff looks,” Burnes said. “Happy how the ball is coming out. Can’t really complain about it.”
Burnes has worked at least six innings in his past five starts, though this will mark just his second road assignment since April 20. He has made three career appearances against the White Sox, going 1-0 with a 4.70 ERA.
Among the negatives for the Orioles from Thursday night is that they used five relievers, including three in the ninth inning.
Right-hander Chris Flexen (2-4, 5.48 ERA) will be on the mound for Chicago, trying to bounce back from Sunday’s rough outing against the New York Yankees. He allowed seven runs on eight hits in four innings in Chicago’s 7-2 loss.
“It’s just about executing pitches,” Flexen said.
In three career starts against Baltimore, Flexen is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA. The loss came in August when he was a member of the Colorado Rockies.
Information from The Associated Press and Field Level Media was used in this report.
EL SEGUNDO, Calif. — Jim Hiller is sticking to the hard-nosed, defense-first philosophy that got the Los Angeles Kings to the first round of the playoffs — and no farther — in each of the past three seasons.
General manager Rob Blake introduced Hiller as the Kings’ permanent head coach Thursday, retaining the former Kings assistant who took over for the fired Todd McLellan in February and led Los Angeles to its third consecutive third-place finish in the Pacific Division and third straight early postseason ouster.
“Where Jim always seemed to come to the top was in the aspect that we’ve had time together,” Blake said. “We’ve seen him work … [and we’re] very comfortable, very confident in Jim’s approach to challenges. His presence in front of the group is very important to us. The way he can command the room and drive home the point that we make, the direction we want to go together, confident he can drive that home.”
With Blake and Hiller returning after weeks of speculation about their futures, the Kings’ playoff struggles clearly won’t lead to a reboot or a rebuild. Los Angeles was eliminated by Edmonton on May 1 in five games.
The GM and his first-time head coach remain committed to the style they’ve embraced with their 1-3-1 neutral zone trap. The system has made the Kings a nightmare to face, but L.A.’s players sometimes chafe at the regimented strategy — and even Hiller acknowledges it hinders the Kings’ offensive production.
“We’ve started the process of looking at everything about our game,” Hiller said. “We are a top defensive team in the National Hockey League. Have been for some years now. The identity of the L.A. Kings is a checking team that’s difficult to play against. We feel we have to find some areas where we can create more offense, but not at the expense of what our identity is, and what we’ve taken some time to create.”
Only two teams allowed fewer goals than the Kings (210) during the regular season, but Los Angeles was squarely in the middle of the NHL pack on offensive production despite a roster with expensive top-end talent.
“There’s teams that are playing in the NHL [conference] finals right now that play a 1-3-1, and there’s teams that don’t,” Hiller said. “The common theme is they play good defense. They check. It doesn’t necessarily matter what the system is. You’ve got to check within that system. We’ll look at the areas where we think, with our personnel, how we can maximize some more offense.”
That’s important, because the Kings appear to be stuck in a rut: They’ve lost to Edmonton in three consecutive first-round series after finishing the regular season with totals of 99, 104 and 99 points. They’ve stayed in this spot despite spending big money to add high-scoring forwards Kevin Fiala — who has 145 points in two strong seasons — and Pierre-Luc Dubois, who only managed 40 points in his dismal debut with Los Angeles after signing a long-term contract last summer.
Blake said the three weeks since the Kings’ ouster “have not been comfortable at all.” Blake retained his job even though the Kings haven’t won a playoff round in his seven seasons as GM, although they’ve reached the postseason four times.
Despite a roster frequently packed with top-end talent, Los Angeles has yet to advance in the postseason since raising its second Stanley Cup a decade ago.
“What we’ve come to realize is there’s a certain desire to win that needs to be raised within our team here,” Blake said. “And what that is, is getting a little uncomfortable. … It starts right now, right here, today, with me, with Jim, right down to our players. If that’s where we want to get to, that’s what we’ve got to do.”
Hiller was drafted by the Kings in the 10th round in 1989, and he eventually played 40 games with the team before being traded to Detroit as a rookie. Hiller has been passionate about coaching since even before his brief NHL playing career, and he gave special thanks Thursday to Jacques Lemaire, the Stanley Cup-winning coach and player who mentored Hiller.
Hiller got a three-year deal with incentives that could trigger a fourth season, Blake confirmed without giving specifics.
D.J. Smith will stay on Hiller’s staff after being hired as an assistant in February, and the Kings will hire a new assistant coach to focus on the power play, filling Hiller’s role under McLellan.
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