NHL season preview: Power Rankings, best- and worst-case scenarios for all 32 teams
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2 years agoon
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admin
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Ryan S. Clark
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Kristen Shilton
Oct 9, 2023, 07:30 AM ET
Opening night of the 2023-24 NHL season is Tuesday, with a tripleheader of games on ESPN and ESPN+: Nashville Predators–Tampa Bay Lightning (5:30 p.m. ET), Chicago Blackhawks–Pittsburgh Penguins (8 p.m. ET) and Seattle Kraken–Vegas Golden Knights (10:30 p.m. ET), the latter of which will include the Knights’ Stanley Cup banner-raising ceremony.
We’re here to help get you up to speed with intel on all 32 teams, including the key players who were added or subtracted, best- and worst-case scenarios, X factors and fantasy tips, plus bold predictions.
Our season preview will also feature the first edition of our Power Rankings, which provide the order in which these teams are presented. The rankings were formulated through votes from ESPN hockey broadcasters, analysts and reporters, and will appear weekly on ESPN.com.
How to watch the NHL on ESPN, ABC, ESPN+ and Hulu
Note: Thanks as always to CapFriendly for salary and contract data. Advanced stats are from Hockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey. Kristen Shilton profiled the teams in the Eastern Conference, while Ryan S. Clark handled the Western Conference clubs. The fantasy outlook for each team is courtesy of Victoria Matiash and Sean Allen, and bold predictions are courtesy of Greg Wyshynski. Stanley Cup odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Jump to:
ANA | ARI | BOS | BUF
CGY | CAR | CHI | COL
CBJ | DAL | DET | EDM
FLA | LA | MIN | MTL
NSH | NJ | NYI | NYR
OTT | PHI | PIT | SJ
SEA | STL | TB | TOR
VAN | VGS | WSH | WPG

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Last season: 51-22-9, 111 points. Won the Stanley Cup.
Stanley Cup odds: +1200
Key players added: None
Key players lost: F Teddy Blueger, G Laurent Brossoit, F Phil Kessel, G Jonathan Quick, F Reilly Smith
Most fascinating player: Ivan Barbashev. The Golden Knights’ trade for Barbashev provided a major boost to their Cup run, as he posted six goals and 10 assists in 23 regular-season games and another seven goals and 13 assists in the playoffs. He was slated to be an unrestricted free agent, and in order to keep him (he signed a five-year contract worth $5 million annually), they had to part with one of the remaining original Golden Knights in Reilly Smith. The Golden Knights are counting on Barbashev — a four-time double-digit scorer — to continue to be a productive two-way forward who can be trusted in all situations.
Best case: They win the Stanley Cup for a second year in a row.
Worst case: Falling short of the title, along with the reasons why. So much of the formula behind the Golden Knights’ success was rooted in being multifaceted. They had the depth that allowed them to rely on all four lines and all three defensive pairings for offensive contributions. They had a defensive structure that saw them limit some of the game’s most talented players to zero points in the playoffs, as well as the depth that saw players like goaltender Adin Hill go from being a member of the regular-season rotation to one of the main reasons for winning the Cup.
X factor: Part of the challenge in being a defending champion is finding enough players on team-friendly deals who can serve in key roles. That makes what the Knights have done at the AHL level even more vital. Homegrown talents such as Nicolas Hague, Keegan Kolesar, Logan Thompson and Zach Whitecloud are proof that they’ve been able to develop key contributors on team-friendly deals. It was the case last season, when Paul Cotter, who did not see action in the postseason, still contributed 13 goals while playing in a bottom-six role. Cotter is expected to take on a greater role this season, and it’s possible the Golden Knights could ask their next wave of homegrown talents to do the same.
Fantasy outlook: Jack Eichel appears in solid shape after a stretch of serious injury concerns. As demonstrated by his performance on route to winning the Knights’ first Cup, the club’s top center is more than capable of eclipsing the 85-point mark, while averaging close to four shots per contest.
Bold prediction: Logan Thompson reclaims the crease.
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Last season: 51-24-7, 109 points. Lost in first round.
Stanley Cup odds: +900
Key players added: F Ross Colton, F Jonathan Drouin, F Ryan Johansen, F Miles Wood
Key players lost: F J.T. Compher, F Lars Eller, F Darren Helm, D Erik Johnson, F Denis Malgin, F Alex Newhook, F Evan Rodrigues
Most fascinating player: Cale Makar. Injuries throughout the lineup forced the Avalanche to make adjustments. One of them was asking Makar to take on more, which is why he led the NHL in average ice time (26:22 per game), which meant he had to pick and choose his spots to attack. Having a healthier roster along with more secondary and tertiary scoring options could help Makar become more of an offensive threat. Injuries limited Makar to 60 games, but he still averaged more than a point per game, almost matching his output from the previous season, when he won the Norris.
Best case: Winning their second Stanley Cup in three seasons is the mission for the Avs. They have built a core around Makar, Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Devon Toews, Valeri Nichushkin, Samuel Girard and Artturi Lehkonen, who were part of their 2021-22 title-winning team. Injuries and a lack of scoring depth were stumbling blocks in their bid to repeat last season. Like any Cup contender, salary-cap limitations forced the Avs to part with players such as J.T. Compher and Evan Rodrigues in free agency and Alex Newhook via trade. Yet like any Cup contender, they got creative with their cap space and made the necessary moves to provide more options to supplement their core with captain Gabriel Landeskog slated to miss a second straight season while recovering from knee surgery.
Worst case: A repeat of last season, which saw an injury-riddled campaign end with a first-round playoff exit. Part of what also plagued the Avs was their limited cap space, which made it difficult for them to find replacements for Andre Burakovsky and Nazem Kadri, members of that Cup winning team that left in free agency. Trading draft picks for Ross Colton and Ryan Johansen while signing Jonathan Drouin and Miles Wood in free agency should give the Avs the needed secondary scoring and depth they lacked last season.
X factor: Could it be Jonathan Drouin? Over the past few seasons, Avs coach Jared Bednar has found results with skilled forwards who joined the team in free agency or via trade. Burakovsky and Kadri had the strongest years of their careers with the Avs, while Nichushkin went from a top-10 pick who struggled to find success with the Dallas Stars to a key top-six forward. Lehkonen is the latest example: The former Canadiens winger finished with his first 20-goal and 50-point season in his first full campaign with the Avs. Is it possible that Drouin will be the next forward who strikes it rich in the Rockies?
Fantasy outlook: On the blue line, Makar remains any manager’s choice No. 1 defenseman, particularly in leagues that reward power-play points at a premium. Third-year defender Bowen Byram is hoping his first full, healthy season results in a haul near 50 points.
Bold prediction: Cale Makar scores 102 points.
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Last season: 52-21-9, 113 points. Lost in Eastern Conference finals.
Stanley Cup odds: +750
Key players added: F Michael Bunting, D Dmitry Orlov, D Tony DeAngelo
Key players lost: D Shayne Gostisbehere
Most fascinating player: Seth Jarvis. What’s the ceiling for Carolina’s up-and-comer? He has become a genuine driver within the Hurricanes’ offense and plays with control yet the slightly reckless abandon of a skater who wants to keep up with the likes of Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov. Carolina has become known for playing a tight defensive structure and is often pooh-poohed for not being “exciting” enough up front. Jarvis can be a catalyst for change there. Now going into this third NHL season and with a solid foundation of growth to build off, this could be a momentum-shifting year for the 21-year-old forward.
Best case: Carolina finally puts it all together and wins the Cup. Season after season it feels like the Hurricanes have inched closer to that championship version of themselves. For one reason or another it hasn’t happened for Carolina, although it came close in making the Eastern Conference finals last spring. Even more impressive was the fact that the Hurricanes reached that stage without Svechnikov, who tore an ACL in March. Svechnikov is healthy again, and assuming he and the club’s other top skaters stay that way, the Hurricanes could become the beasts of the East. Michael Bunting was a key offseason signing whom Carolina expects will bring a certain edge — and skill — to its top nine, and Dmitry Orlov is a terrific addition to an already great blue line. There’s nothing standing in Carolina’s way now, right?
Worst case: More of the same: The Hurricanes dominate the regular season, start well in the postseason and then fizzle out. That would be the biggest disappointment of all. Carolina being swept by Florida in the conference finals was a tough enough pill to swallow. If that letdown doesn’t fuel the Hurricanes’ fire and propel them to something greater, what will? Carolina has too many good players, and too good a coach in Rod Brind’Amour, to keep letting opportunities to achieve their full potential slip away.
X factor: Goaltending. Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta are both back and project to be the Hurricanes’ tandem once again. Are two aging goaltenders enough for Carolina to reach that aforementioned promised land? Andersen had a strong 2022-23 as the Hurricanes’ No. 1 (.903 SV%, 2.48 GAA), but that was only when the 34-year-old was available — and not battling various injuries. It has been a pattern for Andersen throughout his career. But Carolina is counting on him and Raanta to keep them steady between the pipes. Will they be up to that task?
Fantasy outlook: The Hurricanes run six deep on defense, and the top question is whether Brent Burns can repeat again at age 38. As a backup, Tony DeAngelo returns to the club as a potential power-play specialist.
Bold prediction: Brett Pesce isn’t traded.
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Last season: 50-23-9, 109 points. Lost in second round.
Stanley Cup odds: +900
Key players added: F Connor Brown, F Mattias Janmark, F Lane Pederson
Key players lost: F Nick Bjugstad, D Oscar Klefbom, F Klim Kostin, D William Lagesson, D Ryan Murray, F Kailer Yamamoto
Most fascinating player: Stuart Skinner. What Skinner does in the regular season will clearly carry value. That’s how he was able to earn the starting job going into the playoffs. It’s just that both he and the Oilers are now at the stage in which what’s done in the regular season is overshadowed by what does, or does not, happen in the playoffs. Skinner’s maiden postseason came with questions considering he finished with a 3.68 GAA and a .883 save percentage. Those were further amplified in the second round when Skinner was pulled in three of the Oilers’ four defeats.
Best case: Winning the Stanley Cup. This is the expectation for a team that has a pair of Hart Trophy candidates who have combined to win the award in three of the past four seasons: Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid. While it has been a gradual incline from the 2019-20 season, when they reached the qualifying round, the Oilers have done more to strengthen their case as a legitimate Cup contender. They made it to the Western Conference finals in 2021-22, and while their Cup hopes ended in the second round last season, their two most recent exits came at the hands of the teams that would win it all in the Avalanche and the Golden Knights.
Worst case: Getting eliminated in either the first or second round. What further complicates the Oilers’ championship aspirations is where they stand within the conference landscape. They’re trying to win a Cup at a time in which the Avs and Golden Knights are the most recent winners, teams such as the Kraken and Stars believe this most recent postseason further legitimized their approach, and changes including trading for Pierre-Luc Dubois could get the Kings beyond the first round. Even then? What makes assessing the Oilers challenging is how recent Cup winners such as the Capitals, Blues, Lightning and Golden Knights all went through some sort of crucible before winning it all. Could that also be the case for the Oilers?
X factor: How much of a difference will their tactical changes make? The Oilers spent quite a bit of the preseason installing a new neutral-zone system while also changing their defense from man-to-man to zone. One of the questions facing the Oilers throughout the offseason was how do they solve the defensive issues that plagued them in the second round against the Golden Knights? Fixing those issues became a concern given that the Oilers held a one-goal lead in all of their losses to Vegas. Especially considering that the Oilers were in the bottom five among playoff teams in shots allowed per 60, goals allowed per 60 and high-danger chances allowed per 60 in 5-on-5 play.
Fantasy outlook: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (104 points) and Zach Hyman (83) aren’t likely to replicate their outstanding numbers from last season, but still have the wherewithal to finish in the top 25 and 35 in scoring, respectively.
Bold prediction: The Oilers will win the Stanley Cup.
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Last season: 52-22-8, 112 points. Lost in second round.
Stanley Cup odds: +1000
Key players added: F Tyler Toffoli
Key players lost: D Damon Severson, D Ryan Graves, G Mackenzie Blackwood
Most fascinating player: Timo Meier. It’s time for Meier to spread his wings in New Jersey. The Devils landed a major prize in trading with San Jose for Meier last season and the forward produced nine goals and 14 points in 21 games for New Jersey after coming aboard. He dealt with injuries though — in the regular season and again in the playoffs — so it still seems like New Jersey hasn’t seen all of what Meier will eventually offer its offense. GM Tom Fitzgerald got the business side taken care of when he inked Meier to an eight-year contract extension in June. That shows a commitment on both sides to see Meier shine for the Devils. How will that manifest now in the season ahead, when a more established Meier will be playing off the likes of Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier and more?
Best case: New Jersey is a Cinderella story no more. And that’s a good thing. The Devils are just a good team, and they can parlay that into being a great one throughout an 82-game regular season. What’s next after that? Playoffs. New Jersey got the satisfaction of beating their rival New York Rangers in a first-round series last April. Best case? That outcome again is just an appetizer for the Devils. Instead of tapping out in the second round, New Jersey wields its way to greater heights on the back of Hughes, Bratt and Meier dominating offensively while Dougie Hamilton & Co. lock down the blue line. Vitek Vanecek performs between the pipes and there’s no dip in the Devils’ production as they push their way well into the Eastern Conference playoff race.
Worst case: New Jersey folds under the newfound pressure of being a contender. The Devils won’t catch any team off guard this time around and their struggles will be amplified and harder to overcome than they were last season. Frustration settles in when their goaltending tandem of Vanecek and Akira Schmid can’t stand up to the tougher competition and even more cracks begin to show. Eventually, the Devils succumb to their own demons and don’t even reach the second round.
X factor: How will New Jersey’s blue line adjust without Severson and Graves? Severson was traded to Columbus in June and Graves signed with the Penguins as a free agent. Losing both leaves a defense gap with which the Devils will be grappling. New Jersey can expect only so much development out of Luke Hughes and there’s a lot more riding now on Hamilton, John Marino and even Colin Miller to keep New Jersey’s defensive game tight. They’ll need help from the Devils’ forwards, too. Getting beat too easily off the rush has been an issue for New Jersey in the past; if it remains one in their future, that could detract from an otherwise strong season ahead.
Fantasy outlook: Vanecek is the 1A starter, but Schmid showed flashes last season. The crease here should generate value regardless, so earning minutes will determine how much value they each have.
Bold prediction: Hischier wins the Selke Trophy.
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Last season: 50-21-11, 111 points. Lost in second round.
Stanley Cup odds: +1000
Key players added: F Max Domi, F Tyler Bertuzzi, D John Klingberg, F Ryan Reaves, G Martin Jones
Key players lost: F Michael Bunting, F Alexander Kerfoot, F Ryan O’Reilly
Most fascinating player: Ilya Samsonov. What a revelation Samsonov was for the Leafs last season. Signed to a one-year deal with low expectations, the 26-year-old quickly took hold of the No. 1 job and turned in the best performance of his career. Now, after an arbitration hearing with Toronto landed him another one-year pact, can Samsonov do it all over again? His .919 SV% and 2.33 GAA in 2022-23 helped keep Toronto consistent right up to the playoffs — during which Samsonov suffered an injury that sidelined him in the second round. Had Samsonov been available — and had the Leafs not been forced to put Joseph Woll in against Florida — would Toronto have come through that second-round series? Is Samsonov that much of a factor in their success? Could be.
Best case: Toronto got over the proverbial hump by beating Tampa Bay in the first round of the playoffs last season. Check. Done. So, the Leafs must push forward into the next phase — and that’s being Cup contenders. Toronto has the talent to be a top-five team in the league year after year, and it is. The Leafs’ best case is translating all that regular-season success (not to mention optimism) into the playoffs and not being overwhelmed by expectations. General manager Brad Treliving took one major potential distraction off the table by signing Auston Matthews to a four-year extension. And Treliving added some snarl with Ryan Reaves, forward depth in Max Domi and Tyler Bertuzzi, and a solid veteran defender in John Klingberg to bolster the back end. Change can do a team good, and that’s what the Leafs are hoping for here.
Worst case: Another crash and burn in the postseason. The recipe for Toronto is simple: Don’t just make the playoffs; make the most of an opportunity when you get there. And that starts with building chemistry early on and sustaining consistent habits all the way through spring. The Leafs know what’s expected, and they have enough depth to potentially go all the way. Falling short, again, would have to produce more significant alterations to the team than what it already has gone through over the past three months. Patience, it seems, always runs short in Toronto.
X factor: William Nylander. Leafs’ coach Sheldon Keefe is starting Nylander at center this season instead of on the wing, and that’s enough to challenge any skater. However, this also happens to be a contract year for Nylander — the status for which is already generating headlines of its own. The last time Nylander went up against the Leafs looking for a new deal, it led to a stalemate lasting well into the regular season. Is the uncertainty of what lies ahead for Nylander likely to weigh on him — or the team — as this season stretches on? And how will Nylander handle the added responsibilities, game after game, at the center spot? He has done it in short spurts before but never for a sustained period. There’s a lot riding on Nylander to perform — individually and for the entire team.
Fantasy outlook: Tyler Bertuzzi feels like a natural replacement for Michael Bunting on the top line and could be in for big fantasy boost with his new linemates.
Bold prediction: Toronto wins two playoff rounds.
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Last season: 47-21-14, 108 points. Lost in Western Conference finals.
Stanley Cup odds: +1500
Key players added: F Matt Duchene, F Craig Smith, F Sam Steel
Key players lost: F Max Domi, F Luke Glendening
Most fascinating player: Miro Heiskanen. He consistently averages ice times that run longer than an episode of “Abbott Elementary.” He can take on the challenge of facing a top line while being at the controls of a penalty kill and a power-play unit. And now that he showed he can score more than 70 points in a season, Heiskanen has become too hard to ignore. Heiskanen’s all-around performances were one of the reasons the Stars finished a point shy of being the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. It was also one of the reasons they were two wins away from the Stanley Cup Final and went from a wild-card entrant that was knocked out in the first round in 2021-22 to entering the 2023-24 season as a team in a championship window.
Best case: Finding a way to build upon what they did last season by at least returning to the Western Conference finals. One of the questions facing the Stars prior to last season was whether they had enough offensive production. Under Peter DeBoer, the Stars had nine players who scored more than 10 goals and were sixth in goals scored. That production carried over into the postseason, which is how they were able to overpower the Wild in the first round, outlast the balanced Seattle Kraken in the second round and pose challenges to the team with the strongest depth in the NHL in the eventual Cup champion Golden Knights. Replicating the Stars success from last season would further legitimize that the Stars are in a championship window.
Worst case: Losing Jake Oettinger to a long-term or season-ending injury. In the span of three seasons, Oettinger has gone from a promising prospect playing in a tandem to being one of the few goaltenders capable of starting more than 60 games at a time in which more NHL teams are using tandems. Oettinger started in 76% of the Stars’ regular-season games while leading the league in starts, in addition to being in the top 10 in shots faced and saves. So what would happen in the event something prevented Oettinger from playing for an extended period? The Stars do have veteran Scott Wedgewood, who has 98 games of NHL experience. Beyond that? The two goalies the Stars have under contract throughout their system — Matt Murray and Remi Poirier — have a combined three games of NHL experience, with all of them belonging to Murray, who made his debut in 2022-23.
X factor: It could depend upon the impact made by Thomas Harley and Nils Lundkvist. Part of the offseason discussion about the Stars has centered around their defense, which in itself is a bit of a complex issue. The Stars’ defense was among the strongest units in both the regular season and playoffs in several 5-on-5 categories. What makes Harley and Lundkvist players to watch is that they could add more layers to the Stars’ defensive dynamic. Harley averaged 0.47 points in the playoffs on a defensive unit that had most of its members average less than 0.31 points in the regular season. A lack of right-handed options is why Heiskanen was moved to the right. That, however, also presents Lundkvist with a chance to potentially challenge Jani Hakanpaa, who is also right-handed, for a top-four role.
Fantasy outlook: New to Dallas on a one-year deal, Matt Duchene is in position to kick his production back into gear after last season’s humdrum campaign in Nashville. Not to the tune of 83 from 2021-22 but definitely more. Defenseman Miro Heiskanen is, far and away, the Stars’ No. 1 fantasy option on the blue line.
Bold prediction: Jake Oettinger wins the Vezina Trophy.
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Last season: 42-32-8, 92 points. Lost in Stanley Cup Final.
Stanley Cup odds: +2000
Key players added: D Oliver Ekman-Larsson, D Dmitry Kulikov, D Niko Mikkola, D Mike Reilly
Key players lost: F Anthony Duclair, F Patric Hornqvist, D Radko Gudas, D Marc Staal, G Alex Lyon
Most fascinating player: Sergei Bobrovsky. Which Bobrovsky will Florida get when the season opens? Will it be the Vezina Trophy-caliber goalie who carried the Panthers in net to an unexpected Stanley Cup Final appearance? Or will Bobrovsky struggle to show up like a $10 million-a-year player should and force Florida into either giving him time to recover or turning the No. 1 job over to someone else? Is there a long leash there from coach Paul Maurice given Bobrovsky’s stunning postseason numbers (.915 SV%, 2.78 GAA)? It’s been a wild ride for Bobrovsky with the Panthers so far, undulating between excellent and exasperating. We’ll see what version of Bobrovsky will show up in 2023-24.
Best case: Florida was the feel-good story of last season when it defied critics (and oddsmakers) to boldly go into the playoffs and all the way from there to a Cup Final. It would be easy to dismiss the Panthers’ success as a one-off feat and assume they won’t recreate it. That would be a mistake. If Bobrovsky can pick up where he left off, and if Matthew Tkachuk plays at the Hart Trophy-like level he did for much of the previous eight months and if the plethora of defensemen GM Bill Zito signed to sustain Florida’s back end perform well while Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour recover from injury, then Florida would (and should) be considered a top contender in the Eastern Conference. The stars have aligned before above these Panthers; there’s no reason it can’t happen again.
Worst case: There’s a long list of things that will need to go right for Florida to touch the success it had last season. It’s not clear how long the Panthers will be without Ekblad and Montour, leaving a gaping hole in the blue line that’s even more pronounced now that Radko Gudas has moved on too. If Florida gets run aground defensively and is leaning too heavily on (A) Bobrovsky and (B) the ability to outscore its own issues every night, that doesn’t project to end well. The worst case for Florida is it starts slow and falls too far out of postseason reach to make the type of Cinderella run that captivated us all in 2022-23. Going from three wins away from a championship to no playoff opportunity at all would be a tough pill to swallow.
X factor: Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Someone has to step up for Florida on the back end. Could that be the veteran? This is a pivotal juncture for the 32-year-old player, who was bought out by Vancouver and now joins a young, hungry Panthers team that recently became familiar with winning. That alone should ignite Ekman-Larsson and help bring out his best game, something we haven’t seen the most of since he was patrolling Arizona’s blue line over five years ago. It’s an opportunity to not only massively impact the Panthers’ back end but also to show the rest of the league that, at least for the time being, Ekman-Larsson can still be an important player for his team.
Fantasy outlook: Injuries to Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour will keep the team’s two best fantasy defenders on the sidelines until what sounds like November or December. It’s a massive opportunity for Gustav Forsling.
Bold prediction: Patrick Kane signs with the Panthers.
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Last season: 47-22-13, 107 points. Lost in first round.
Stanley Cup odds: +1300
Key players added: F Blake Wheeler, D Erik Gustafsson, G Jonathan Quick
Key players lost: F Patrick Kane, F Vladimir Tarasenko, D Niko Mikkola
Most fascinating player: Igor Shesterkin. Shesterkin is the Rangers’ backbone. That’s not to say New York isn’t more than just goaltending; it is. But the team’s success rides heavily on how well Shesterkin performs. There’s nothing wrong with that; Shesterkin has the Vezina Trophy to prove how elite his skill set is. And yet, some have deemed his 2022-23 season a “down” one, even though Shesterkin collected a .916 SV% and 2.48 GAA. Shesterkin simply couldn’t make up for all the Rangers’ shortcomings — but he will be looked at to do so this year anyway. New York is facing a certain amount of transition under new coach Peter Laviolette. Being able to rely on Shesterkin to give New York a chance every night he’s in net — and that’ll be most of them — is something they won’t take for granted.
Best case: New York thrives under Laviolette, and the fresh start provided after a couple of disappointing postseason runs. The Rangers revel in Shesterkin’s excellent play but also get key contributions from their top six forwards — led by Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad — and enjoy another Norris Trophy-type season from Adam Fox on the blue line. The Rangers’ young stars — including Kaapo Kakko — pop off as significant point producers, and there’s no obvious flaws to New York’s new system. Not only does the team make the playoffs, but the Rangers find themselves back again in the mix to push beyond just a first-round showing.
Worst case: The Rangers are counting on depth players like Blake Wheeler and Erik Gustafsson to come in and fill the gaps left behind by exiting skaters. When that doesn’t happen, the Rangers’ lack of contributors becomes an increasing problem. When Laviolette’s tinkering proves unsuccessful, there are questions raised about whether New York was right to even move on from previous bench boss Gerard Gallant. Regardless of how good the Rangers’ offensive core is, they can’t make up for the team’s defensive deficiencies, and New York flames out before the postseason begins.
X factor: Attitude. Chris Kreider has talked about it. There’s a certain chip on the Rangers’ shoulder after the way their previous two seasons have gone, with one ending in the Eastern Conference finals and the other in a first-round exit versus New Jersey. Can’t New York actually use that pain to its advantage now? It’s one thing to talk about being frustrated; it’s another to see the changes made in the wake of failure and not do something about it on the ice, where it actually counts. The Rangers have a chance to rally around their prior disappointment. Would that actually have an effect on their outcome this season? Stranger things have happened. But talk alone is cheap.
Fantasy outlook: The defense remains strong for fantasy, with Adam Fox challenging for best overall among defenders, Jacob Trouba remaining a source for counting stats and K’Andre Miller finding value.
Bold prediction: Kaapo Kakko takes flight and lives up to his draft pedigree.
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Last season: 65-12-5, 135 points. Lost in the first round.
Stanley Cup odds: +1800
Key players added: F Milan Lucic, F James van Riemsdyk, D Kevin Shattenkirk
Key players lost: F Patrice Bergeron, F Tyler Bertuzzi, F Nick Foligno, F Taylor Hall, F David Krejci, D Connor Clifton, D Dmitry Orlov
Most fascinating player: Brad Marchand. The newly minted Bruins captain has been one of the team’s most consistent contributors for over a decade, and now he’s taking on a leadership mantle vacated by franchise legend Patrice Bergeron. Will that added responsibility alter how the feisty Marchand conducts himself on the ice? Or will it inspire even better play out of the 35-year-old, who impressively has maintained a near point-per-game output throughout his career to date?
Best case: Boston endured a devastatingly poor finish in the playoffs last season that frankly overshadowed its wildly successful, historically dominant regular season. In a perfect world that disappointment fuels the Bruins’ fire to not only be an Atlantic Division contender but pushes them through a long postseason run from there. That might not include the precursor of another Presidents’ Trophy bid, especially given all the players Boston has lost since last season ended. It might actually be better for the Bruins to build their way up slowly, getting to construct a new identity under second-year coach Jim Montgomery and rallying around their impressive core helmed by Linus Ullmark, Charlie McAvoy, David Pastrnak, Marchand and more. There’s a great deal of talent in the Bruins’ ranks; best-case scenario is they make the most of it.
Worst case: It’s not easy replacing the number of key players Boston had to let walk out the door. GM Don Sweeney was hamstrung by a lack of cap space and that (partially) led to Orlov, Clifton, Hall and Bertuzzi exiting the organization. Bergeron and Krejci have retired. There are clear holes Boston must fill in the lineup, and the players Sweeney did add are all veterans in the later stages of their careers who can best be expected to contribute in depth roles. That might not be a recipe for success in the increasingly competitive Atlantic, where teams like Buffalo, Ottawa and Detroit will be right in the mix for a playoff spot when they weren’t before. The Bruins could fall behind early in that race and never recover, finally fulfilling the yearly prophecy from outside voices that they are, in fact, no longer able to keep pace with the up-and-comers around them.
X factor: Charlie McAvoy (and the Bruins’ defense). It still feels like McAvoy doesn’t earn enough attention for how good he is patrolling Boston’s back end. This season will require the most out of all the Bruins’ best players, but eyes will be on the likes of McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm (another under-the-radar defender) to help stabilize Boston early on when there could be some growing pains with the skaters being introduced up front. The Bruins lost some physicality with Clifton going to the Sabres, and the now-departed Orlov was a superb pickup for them at the trade deadline last spring. Now it’s on Boston’s incumbents to pick up the slack, helping the Bruins keep from (possibly) missing a beat.
Fantasy outlook: Replacing the total lost offensive talent of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci won’t be simple, as Charlie Coyle and James van Riemsdyk are next up for the scoring lines. Brad Marchand might not rebound from his 129th overall showing last season, but Charlie McAvoy might improve on his 92nd-place finish.
Bold prediction: Contrary to popular prediction, the Bruins make the playoffs.
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Last season: 46-30-6, 98 points. Lost in first round.
Stanley Cup odds: +2200
Key players added: F Luke Glendening, F Tyler Motte, F Conor Sheary
Key players lost: F Corey Perry, F Alex Killorn, F Pat Maroon, F Ross Colton
Most fascinating player: Victor Hedman. Tampa Bay is going to need everything out of Hedman now that Andrei Vasilevskiy is going to miss significant time with an injury. Hedman has been the Lightning’s backbone on the blue line (and elsewhere) for essentially his entire career. But the pressure on Hedman to be Tampa Bay’s top blueliner will only be amplified now with Vasilevskiy out. Hedman is 32. He’s battled injuries, and the 24-plus minutes per game the veteran is averaging don’t come without significant wear and tear on a nightly basis. Still, who can count out a talent like Hedman? The way he supports the Lightning at 5-on-5 and both special teams units is nothing short of impressive. What can he offer the Lightning now — when they’re a little more down and out?
Best case: Tampa Bay set the bar high with two Stanley Cup wins and a Cup Final appearance since 2020. Given the loss of Vasilevskiy in net and the void left by Alex Killorn departing in free agency, the best case for Tampa would be seeing its depth start to shine long before the playoffs. Brandon Hagel and Tanner Jeannot explode in top-six or top-nine roles that take some pressure off the Lightning back end and allow the team time to establish a strong identity amid some changes (particularly up front). By the time Vasilevskiy is able to come back, the Lightning are still on the playoff bubble and ready to challenge for an Eastern Conference slot.
Worst case: Tampa Bay can’t overcome the early roadblocks in its way, and that ultimately decides where the Lightning end up — outside the playoffs for the first time since Jon Cooper took over as the club’s full-time head coach. Distractions abound with Vasilevskiy’s injury and Steven Stamkos‘ contentious contract extension talks. And then there’s the state of Tampa Bay’s defense if Hedman can’t be their usual workhorse. Will Mikhail Sergachev be able to fill in and carry a heavier load? Has Tampa Bay lost too many of its veteran voices in Killorn and Maroon especially that it can’t fight through the inevitable rough patches ahead? This could be the year we see the Lightning window truly begin to close.
X factor: Nikita Kucherov. Any success the Lightning have offensively is bound to be driven by Kucherov. He is still one of the league’s most dynamic, dominant forwards (Kucherov just pocketed 113 points in 82 games last season) and can do a great deal to buoy any lagging confidence his team has in itself with some singularly stellar individual performances. It’s rare that one player can genuinely be a difference-maker night after night, particularly when Atlantic rosters around the Lightning have been beefed up over the last few months, but Kucherov has the firepower to flip every switch on for Tampa Bay. They might need that more than ever this year.
Fantasy outlook: Mikhail Sergachev will be pushing Hedman for a larger share of the pie again, and he earned it last season, beating Hedman for overall value.
Bold prediction: The Lightning miss the playoffs.
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Last season: 47-25-10, 104 points. Lost in first round.
Stanley Cup odds: +2000
Key players added: F Pierre-Luc Dubois, D Vladislav Gavrikov, F Trevor Lewis, G David Rittich, G Cam Talbot
Key players lost: D Sean Durzi, D Alexander Edler, F Alex Iafallo, G Joonas Korpisalo, F Rasmus Kupari, F Gabriel Vilardi
Most fascinating player: Dubois. Another offseason. Another move by the Kings to signal that they are trying to win now. Kings GM Rob Blake was willing to part with quite a bit to trade for Dubois and then sign him to an eight-year contract worth $8.5 million annually. Getting Dubois accomplished a few items for the Kings. The first is that it places them in the discussion for one of the strongest center situations in the NHL in Phillip Danault, Anze Kopitar and Dubois anchoring their top three lines. Another element that comes with getting Dubois is that the Kings now have another top-six forward who they believe can help them now and in the future contend for what they feel has a chance to be a lengthy championship window.
Best case: Slaying the dragon that is the first round. Practically every conversation around the Kings seeking to win a third Stanley Cup at some point comes back to the fact that getting beyond the first round has been an issue. Their two most recent postseason campaigns saw them get eliminated by the Oilers in the first round — a place they have failed to escape since the 2013-14 season when they won their second Cup in three years. Advancing beyond the first round would not only see the Kings clear a near-decade long hurdle, but it would also see them gain a firmer grasp of a challenging Western Conference landscape.
Worst case: It really would be losing in the first round for a third straight season. Part of it stems from the fact they have been aggressive over the last few seasons by going after players such as Viktor Arvidsson, Kevin Fiala, Vladislav Gavrikov, Danualt and Dubois. Another element is the fact that the Kings are about to face some considerable salary cap decisions when the next offseason arrives. Arvidsson along with all three goalies in Pheonix Copley, David Rittich and Cam Talbot are members of a five-player UFA class. Prospects such as Quinton Byfield, Blake Lizotte and Arthur Kaliyev are part of a five-player RFA class in need of new contracts for a team that CapFriendly projects will have $23.3 million in available cap space to address their roster needs.
X factor: The dynamic with their goaltenders. Finding what they believed to be their strongest tandem became a season-long narrative for the Kings. They were hindered by a disconnect between a defensive structure that was top 10 in fewest shots allowed per 60, fewest scoring chances allowed per 60, fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 and what proved to be porous goaltending. They used the deadline to address those concerns and were active again in the offseason by signing Rittich and Talbot. Having those two along with Copley gives three experienced options that only costs them $3.375 million in cap space for a team that’s trying to find consistency in net.
Fantasy outlook: Those interested in a sleeper asset up front might give Quinton Byfield a long look. After two part-time seasons with the Kings, the 21-year-old is expected to kick it up a notch, enjoying a regular shot to compete within this club’s impressive top six.
Bold prediction: Talbot proves to be the answer in goal.
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Last season: 46-25-11, 103 points. Lost in first round.
Stanley Cup odds: +3500
Key players added: F Patrick Maroon
Key players lost: D Matt Dumba, D John Klingberg, F Gustav Nyquist, F Oskar Sundqvist, F Sam Steel
Most fascinating player: Filip Gustavsson. Going from being the No. 3 goaltender in Ottawa to operating in tandem with a presumed future Hall of Fame inductee in Marc-Andre Fleury is the most succinct way to describe Gustavsson’s arc. He would ultimately overtake Fleury, which was the case in the playoffs when he won twice in his five playoff appearances before the Wild were ultimately eliminated in the first round. Gustavsson then signed a three-year extension to give the Wild an option in net for the future with the 38-year-old Fleury in the final year of his deal while Jesper Wallstedt, their first-round pick from 2021, continues his development in the AHL.
Best case: Reaching the playoffs for a fifth straight season would be a start. So would the idea of winning an opening-round series for the first time since the 2014-15 season. Getting beyond that familiar hurdle could be hypothetically accomplished if the Wild can find a way to create the offensive consistency that eluded them throughout the majority of last season. It was evident in that first-round series against the Stars that also saw the Wild finish the playoffs with the fewest shots per 60 and third-fewest goals per 60 in 5-on-5 play, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Worst case: If they miss the playoffs or have a fifth straight first-round exit because of a lack of offense. One of the largest challenges the Wild faced in trying to address their offensive issues was a lack of cap space given the combined Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts will cost them $14.7 million in 2023-24 and again in 2024-25. It’s what further amplifies the need for the Wild to find even more production from a roster that went through more subtractions in the offseason than it did with Patrick Maroon being their lone addition.
X factor: What sort of impact could Brock Faber and Marco Rossi have on a team in need of contributions from players on cheap deals? Faber provided insight into how he could help the Wild after he signed his ELC following the completion of the Golden Gophers’ season that ended with a national title game defeat. He averaged 20 minutes in two regular-season games before logging more than 14 minutes in six playoff games. Rossi recorded one point — an assist — in 19 games with the Wild before going to the AHL where he scored 16 goals and averaged 0.96 points in 53 games. Given the offseason departures and the need to find contributors to fill those needs, it appears Faber and Rossi both have a chance to make a significant impact for the Wild.
Fantasy outlook: Young blueliner Calen Addison operates as an off-radar asset in fantasy competition that favors power-play points. The now 23-year-old led the Wild’s blue line with 18 power-play points, and it wasn’t even close, in just 62 games last year — his first full NHL campaign.
Bold prediction: Bill Guerin becomes a sneaky seller.
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Last season: 40-31-11, 91 points. Missed playoffs.
Stanley Cup odds: +2500
Key players added: F Noel Acciari, F Lars Eller, F Reilly Smith, D Ryan Graves, D Erik Karlsson
Key players lost: F Jason Zucker, D Brian Dumoulin, D Jeff Petry, G Casey DeSmith
Most fascinating player: Erik Karlsson. Is there any question who everyone will be watching when Pittsburgh takes the ice for opening night? Karlsson is in the middle of a career renaissance, and he’s linking up with some of the NHL’s most storied players of the past decade in Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang. What will Karlsson bring to the group? He’s capable of taking on any role at 5-on-5 and on special teams, plus he’s got the hunger to finally chase down an elusive Stanley Cup championship. Karlsson ended up in a place with recent playoff pedigree, but the Penguins need Karlsson to be on top of his game (again) to get there. Can he prove the 2023 Norris Trophy win was no fluke with another jaw-dropping season?
Best case: Pittsburgh is determined to avoid another embarrassing non-playoff finish and overcompensates entirely with a standout season from start to finish. Karlsson transitions without issue into a prominent role on the blue line, while Crosby and Malkin turn back the clock with vintage performances of their own. Tristan Jarry stands tall as the team’s No. 1 netminder, and coach Mike Sullivan gets the most out of the Penguins’ depth both up front and on the blue line. Pittsburgh works its way back to the postseason and goes on a surprisingly long run fueled by its veteran leaders.
Worst case: Time catches up with everyone, and every team, eventually. That happens now to Pittsburgh. Instead of slowly sliding out of playoff contention, the Penguins are never even in the hunt as it’s clear from the outset they can’t keep up with the Eastern Conference’s fast-paced risers. Jarry shows he can’t carry the load in goal and frustration sets in for Crosby & Co. watching the team struggle its way through another season. GM Kyle Dubas starts exploring trade options early, and by mid-February is already offloading players in an effort to set Pittsburgh up for something better in the future.
X factor: Tristan Jarry. Dubas took a chance on Jarry when he re-signed Pittsburgh’s incumbent to a five-year, $26.8 million deal in July. It wasn’t that Jarry was awful in 2022-23 (he produced a .909 SV% and 2.90 GAA) but it was his lack of timely saves and big performances at the right moments which drew criticism (not to mention he has been through spells of injury problems). To reward the 28-year-old with a lucrative, long-term deal adds plenty of pressure on Jarry going into a pivotal season for the Penguins. Will that ultimately affect his mindset? Or will Jarry thrive now that he knows the organization is behind him? It’s a fine line to walk with goaltenders. Pittsburgh should find out quickly whether Dubas was right to bet on Jarry again.
Fantasy outlook: Jake Guentzel‘s injury to start the season opens a small window for Reilly Smith to gain some footing in the top six after coming over from the Golden Knights.
Bold prediction: Erik Karlsson plays a “complete” style.
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Last season: 46-28-8, 100 points. Lost in second round.
Stanley Cup odds: +4000
Key players added: F Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, D Brian Dumoulin, F Kailer Yamamoto
Key players lost: F Ryan Donato, F Joonas Donskoi, F Morgan Geekie, G Martin Jones, D Carson Soucy, F Daniel Sprong
Most fascinating player: Philipp Grubauer. What allows Grubauer to be in this position is what he showed in the playoffs compared to the postseason. Since Grubauer signed that six-year contract worth $5.9 million in free agency, injuries and inconsistencies have led to him fielding a 3.01 GAA and a 0.892 save percentage. Yet what he accomplished in the playoffs beyond his 2.99 GAA and a .903 save percentage he posted is what creates intrigue. He was one of the main reasons why the Kraken upset the then-reigning Cup champion Avalanche in the first round and were a game away from the Western Conference final before losing to the Stars.
Best case: Returning to at least the second round of the playoffs. Going from a lottery team in their first year of existence to a game away from the conference final the following season is proof that much can change in a year. Showing they are a consistent playoff team that can win at least one round appears to be the goal for the Kraken at a time in which the most recent Cup champions in the Avs and Golden Knights shows the path for a title — as of this moment — appears to be running through the Western Conference.
Worst case: Any sort of regression. Wide-ranging as that might be, it’s something to consider when it comes to what the Kraken could achieve in Year 3. What does Calder Trophy winner and NHL All-Star Game selection Matty Beniers do for a follow up act? How does Vince Dunn build upon a career year that saw him earn a long-term contract while further proving he could handle the demands of being a top-pairing defenseman? Does the scoring depth the Kraken used throughout the regular season and playoffs continue or will the production be harder to generate?
X factor: How much of an impact can Chris Driedger have? Driedger missed the entire 2022-23 season recovering from a knee injury he sustained at the IIHF Men’s World Championships in 2022. His injury led to the Kraken signing Martin Jones, who won a team-high 27 games before Grubauer was their full-time starter in the playoffs. Jones left in free agency, which means the Kraken will turn to either Driedger, who will start the season in the AHL, or Joey Daccord as the backup.
Fantasy outlook: Top center Matty Beniers appears on the upswing after bursting forth with 24 goals and 33 helpers in his rookie season. The reigning Calder winner projects to eclipse 65 points in his sophomore campaign.
Bold prediction: The Kraken take a step back, miss the playoffs.
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Last season: 42-33-7, 91 points. Missed playoffs.
Stanley Cup odds: +4000
Key players added: D Connor Clifton, D Erik Johnson
Key players lost: G Craig Anderson
Most fascinating player: Rasmus Dahlin. Here’s a 23-year-old defenseman entering a contract year after a breakout season where he tallied 73 points in 78 games and rightly earned Norris Trophy buzz throughout. Dahlin carries himself with veteran swagger and truly seems invested in sticking with the Sabres long-term because of their potential to finally turn the corner and become a perennial contender. Buffalo saw last season how, when its defensive details faltered, so did its success in the win column. Dahlin seems poised to fix that this year, and elevate not only the Sabres’ back end but his own stock as a Norris contender again. Is that too much pressure for someone Dahlin’s age (and with the added expectations of negotiating a new deal)? Time will tell.
Best case: Buffalo makes the playoffs. That’s it. There is nothing (on paper) holding the Sabres back from ending the 12-year postseason drought looming over their organization like an unmovable black cloud. Buffalo has the young talents (see: Dahlin, Tage Thompson, Dylan Cozens, Mattias Samuelsson, etc) and veteran presences (i.e. Kyle Okposo, Jeff Skinner, and Alex Tuch) to produce a complementary mix up front and on the blue line. There’s significant buy-in from Buffalo’s players to the identity and culture they’ve been cultivating under GM Kevyn Adams and head coach Don Granato. This is when the Sabres have to make good on their potential and show why a slow-and-steady rebuild was the correct path to their eventual sustained success.
Worst case: The Sabres fall short, again. Their playoff dry spell hits 13 seasons and it shakes the core foundation of what the franchise thought it was creating through the last several years of patience with its process. While players have outwardly stated they’re ready to take on those additional expectations (both internal and external), it’s easier said than done — particularly when a club runs up against inevitable tough stretches and injury issues. If Buffalo can’t weather the storms better than it has in the past — think of how that stretch of winning one game out of nine in March derailed its postseason hopes last year — then the Sabres find themselves sitting in disappointment once more as the clock keeps running on their time to step up and make some noise.
X factor: Goaltending. The Sabres are counting on youngsters like Devon Levi (age: 21) and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (24) to take the reigns from previous incumbents like Anderson (who had a late-career surge in Buffalo over the last couple years). Granato has said he wouldn’t bet against Levi being able to take over the Sabres’ starting job and Levi did produce a .905 SV% and 2.94 GAA in seven NHL appearances during the 2022-23 season. But will Levi and Luukkonen combine to be a strong enough tandem to carry Buffalo where it wants to go? Or will netminding ultimately doom the Sabres to a lesser outcome in the standings than they’re aiming towards? For a team desperately trying to get its foot in the door, the margin for error at any position is slim.
Fantasy outlook: By not going another route in the offseason, the Sabres have indicated a willingness to let Levi take the ball and run with it as the starter. Given the talent up front, there’s a ton of potential value packed in Levi as a fantasy pick.
Bold prediction: The internet discovers JJ Peterka.
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Last season: 42-31-9, 93 points. Lost in first round.
Stanley Cup odds: +5000
Key players added: None
Key players lost: F Josh Bailey
Most fascinating player: Mathew Barzal. What can we make of Barzal’s contributions up until now for the Islanders? He’s consistently producing more assists than goals and averages a decent point total year over year, but where is Barzal’s impact truly felt? Is he the game-changing forward stats (on their face) might suggest? And if so, why haven’t the Islanders had more success since he’s been in the fold? There’s no question Barzal is a top-end puck mover, but is he driving play enough? Is there more to be expected from him? There’s intrigue around him going into this year given how little GM Lou Lamoriello did to upgrade the Islanders beyond re-signing some of their own players. If Barzal could have a breakout season of sorts where he’s scoring timely goals and being a greater playmaker? That’s big.
Best case: The Islanders’ commitment to their own pays off. Ilya Sorokin — fresh from signing an eight-year extension — puts on a Vezina Trophy-worthy show to guide New York into the postseason, where they battle through a couple rounds. Bo Horvat showcases more than just a flash or two of his best self and drives the Islanders’ offense in the way his capabilities have proven, in the past, that he can. The Islanders see sustained growth from some of their young studs — including Oliver Wahlstrom and Noah Dobson — and the momentum gives the organization hope for a bright future beyond just this coming season.
Worst case: New York’s season is as stagnant as its offseason signings. The team sputters immediately and even Sorokin’s brilliance can’t make up for a lack of offense and general star power at either end of the ice. Horvat wilts under the pressure to step up and Barzal doesn’t evolve enough to help the team change course. Coach Lane Lambert loses the room, and New York falls into the mushy middle where it remains until the regular season ends — without a postseason bid.
X factor: Special teams. New York iced the third-worst power play in the NHL last season, lowest by far of any team that went to the playoffs. Even Dobson has admitted the Islanders “lost their confidence” there as things continued to spiral out of control (losing Barzal to injury certainly didn’t boost New York’s prospects there, either). It’s hard to keep pace with the league’s best teams when you can’t put pucks in with the man advantage. The Islanders must see improvements there in order to be a competitive team — not just in the regular season but if the playoffs are in their future, as well. The Islanders can’t be in their own heads again and let power play chances be a hindrance instead of a help.
Fantasy outlook: A healthy Barzal hasn’t had a heck of a lot of time to gel with Horvat, so the hope is that the latter can prop up Barzal’s stagnated value in recent seasons. If they stick together, there will be a golden opportunity on the other wing for someone — and Wahlstrom has the inside track.
Bold prediction: Barzal grows his hair back.
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Last season: 38-27-17, 93 points. Missed playoffs.
Stanley Cup odds: +3500
Key players added: F Yegor Sharangovich
Key players lost: F Trevor Lewis, F Milan Lucic, D Michael Stone, F Tyler Toffoli
Most fascinating player: Elias Lindholm. Does he stay? Does he go? What does a future with him in Calgary look like? What does a future without him in Calgary look like? Lindholm, who is part of an eight-player UFA class, is expected to give the Flames a decision regarding his future at some point. Should he opt to stay, the Flames would be retaining one of their most important forwards considering Lindholm was second on the team in points and can log significant ice time on both special teams units. Yet if he chooses to depart, it would leave the Flames once again searching for a way to fill the void left by another key member of their lineup.
Best case: Getting into the playoffs and winning a first-round series allows those players who are still undecided about staying the green light to continue with the Flames. Part of what makes the Flames’ current situation so cumbersome is that for the players who could be elsewhere, they have the same amount of players who are under contract for at least two more seasons which represents a long-term plan. It’s possible that a strong regular season coupled with a postseason run could serve as a potential retainment tool as the Flames look to create even more roster continuity.
Worst case: Missing the playoffs while failing to capitalize on the opportunity to trade any one of those pending UFAs for draft capital could be the answer. Even for all the challenges they faced last season, the Flames were still two points away from being in the final wild-card spot and qualifying for the playoffs for a consecutive season. Couple that with the fact they have a few decisions to make regarding a number of their UFAs and it reinforces how the 2023-24 season has a chance to be a pivotal one for the Flames’ current and future plans.
X factor: Was last April a stepping stone for Jacob Markstrom? Finding consistency proved to be a season-long issue for Markstrom, who finished with a 2.92 goals-against average and a .892 save percentage. Those were the lowest marks he’s recorded since establishing himself as a full-time goalie in the 2015-16 season. Something that could create optimism regarding what he could achieve in 2023-24 is how he performed in April. Despite going 1-1-2, Markstrom had a 2.47 GAA and a .915 save percentage in five appearances. Even though it was not the largest sample size, it was still the highest save percentage and second-highest GAA that Markstrom recorded in any month.
Fantasy outlook: Get ready for Jonathan Huberdeau to rebound after hemorrhaging 70 points from the previous season in Florida. No, he won’t collect 115 again, but 75-80 feels well within reach, skating on a line with top center Lindholm.
Bold prediction: Andrew Mangiapane has a monster rebound year.
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Last season: 39-35-8, 86 points. Missed playoffs.
Stanley Cup odds: +5000
Key players added: F Vladimir Tarasenko, G Joonas Korpisalo
Key players lost: F Alex DeBrincat, G Cam Talbot
Most fascinating player: Korpisalo. Ottawa has been waiting on a No. 1 stud to take over the net. GM Pierre Dorion tried to fill in that gap with Cam Talbot and the veteran failed to deliver. Now he’s got Korpisalo stepping into his first true starting job. Will he be the savior these Senators have been longing for, one of the missing pieces in Ottawa’s long journey back to being a playoff-caliber team? Korpisalo was primarily a backup in Columbus and through his brief stint with the Kings post-trade deadline last spring. Yet his numbers (.904 SV%, 3.01 GAA) are relatively strong. Can Korpisalo — in tandem with Anton Forsberg — elevate Ottawa in an area they’ve been perennially struggling with? That could be a difference-maker in their outcomes this season.
Best case: Ottawa makes the playoffs. It’s been a long time coming. There’s been enough talk about how the Senators structured their rebuild, how they drafted and developed talent (starting with Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk and Thomas Chabot, among others), how they’ve been patient in attacking roster construction. All of the things. It’s about time Ottawa saw the fruits of its labors. A healthy Josh Norris — who missed almost all of last season with injury — and Artem Zub will have a major impact on Ottawa upfront and across the blue line. Dorion went about addressing the Senators’ goaltending in the offseason and with the team’s sale done and approved, there are no distractions. This is Ottawa’s moment.
Worst case: Well, Ottawa doesn’t make the playoffs. Whether due to injuries stacking up (again), or just an inability to build chemistry and reach its potential. Doesn’t matter why, really. If the Senators aren’t at least in the postseason race to the end then it will be hard for Dorion to not just keep his own job, but stick behind coach DJ Smith another season on top of it. The Senators and their fans have been waiting a long time to reach this sort of pinnacle. Letting another season go by without anything to show for it by way of a postseason bid would simply not be good enough for anyone inside or outside the organization.
X factor: Jakob Chychrun. When the long-time Arizona defender finally moved on elsewhere it was to an Ottawa team that fully embraced having a blueliner of his ability on their side. The Senators just want to see Chychrun at his best — and they’re still waiting. After being traded to Canada’s capital city, Chychrun played in just 12 games before missing the rest of the year with an injury. The five points he produced in that span was significantly less than the sort of impact Ottawa is rightly expecting from him. The Senators can’t be the contenders they want — and need — to be without Chychrun playing like he’s capable of (see: 41 points in 56 games in 2020-21). Will he get back there? That’s the question.
Fantasy outlook: The defense is deep, with Chabot still likely at the top of the pyramid, but ebbs and flows where Chychrun and Jake Sanderson take turns as No. 1 are likely.
Bold prediction: The Senators make the playoffs.
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Last season: 46-33-3, 95 points. Lost in first round.
Stanley Cup odds: +5000
Key players added: G Laurent Brossoit, F Alex Iafallo, F Rasmus Kupari, F Gabriel Vilardi
Key players lost: F Pierre-Luc Dubois, G David Rittich, F Blake Wheeler
Most fascinating player: Connor Hellebuyck. He’s a perennial Vezina Trophy candidate who’s become the sort of nightly fixture that can be trusted to start more than 60 games a season. His performances can oftentimes be the difference between reaching the playoffs or missing out on them entirely. What Hellebuyck has accomplished has made him one of, if not the, most crucial player the Jets have in their annual bid to reach the postseason. And similar to a number of his teammates, Hellebuyck is in the final year of his contract.
Best case: In terms of the regular season? Getting to the playoffs and advancing beyond the first round for the first time since the 2020-21 season would be one answer. In terms of their roster? That onto itself is a more complex discussion. Trading Pierre-Luc Dubois while placing former captain Blake Wheeler on waivers were the first major changes for a roster that could be significantly altered over the coming months. Assessing what happens next when it comes to the six players in the last years of their contract is a dilemma that is seeking a resolution.
Worst case: In terms of the regular season? Missing the playoffs or reaching the playoffs only to be eliminated in the first round is also an answer. As for their roster? It’s plausible the answer could hinge upon what happens with their six-player pending UFA class. Brenden Dillon, Nino Niederreiter, Mark Scheifele and Hellebuyck are part of that group entering the final years of their contracts for a team that has decisions to make. Receiving the sort of return that can either help them now which was the case in the Dubois trade or aid them later would plausibly soften the blow of the Jets losing those players. Watching them leave without receiving anything in return beyond freeing up cap space, however, could prove problematic given the Jets only have 20 out of a possible 21 draft picks over the next three cycles.
X factor: A healthy Cole Perfetti would hypothetically give the Jets another option now that they are trying to recoup the production they lost by moving on from Dubois and Wheeler. Ever since they drafted Perfetti in the first round in 2020, the Jets haven’t been able to receive the firmest grasp when it comes to what Perfetti can provide. Injuries limited him to seven points in 18 games during the 2021-22 season while the 2022-23 saw him score eight goals and have 30 points in 51 games before he was moved to injured reserve in February.
Fantasy outlook: With Pierre-Luc Dubois and Blake Wheeler sent packing, youngsters Perfetti and Gabriel Vilardi have ripe opportunities to carve out permanent roles within the Jets’ top six. As second-line center in the case of Perfetti, and somewhere on the wing for Vilardi.
Bold prediction: Hellebuyck re-signs in Winnipeg.
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Last season: 35-37-10, 80 points. Missed playoffs.
Stanley Cup odds: +7500
Key players added: F Alex DeBrincat, F J.T. Compher, F Klim Kostin, F Daniel Sprong, D Shayne Gostisbehere, D Jeff Petry, G James Reimer
Key players lost: F Dominik Kubalik, F Filip Zadina, G Alex Nedeljkovic
Most fascinating player: DeBrincat. How do you not wonder about what DeBrincat will do for Detroit’s offense? The Red Wings haven’t produced a 40-goal scorer since Marian Hossa hit the mark in 2008-09. That was in Detroit’s heyday of 25 consecutive playoff appearances. Can DeBrincat help ignite the Red Wings’ up front and recapture some of that former glory? It was just two years ago in Chicago that the 24-year-old winger topped out at 41 goals, and he’ll be surrounded by greater talents even in Detroit than he had with Blackhawks (no disrespect to Patrick Kane, of course). DeBrincat wanted a fresh start after his lone season in Ottawa last year, and going home to the Detroit area seems like a perfect match between player and team.
Best case: Detroit’s been biding its time getting back into contender mode. GM Steve Yzerman looks to have his proverbial ducks in a row now for the Red Wings to be back in that space. Yzerman’s club hasn’t reached playoffs since 2016 and the aggressive nature of Detroit’s last two offseasons — adding top-tier young skaters like DeBrincat, rising studs like Ville Husso and veteran voices with David Perron — has all pointed them in a strong direction. Best case scenario now is that it includes a postseason berth. Patience is a virtue, but it’s also got to yield results, too. The Red Wings haven’t shied away from recognizing their flaws and addressing them, like swapping out Nedeljkovic for a seasoned veteran in Reimer to play behind Husso. Detroit looks ready to announce itself onto the postseason stage again.
Worst case: Yzerman wasn’t making moves to improve Detroit at the trade deadline last spring. He — and the team — knew they wouldn’t get over the hump and be a playoff club by April. History repeating itself for an eighth straight year in 2023-24 could spell a disaster of sorts. Detroit can’t have lesser expectations than playoffs given how stacked its roster is at nearly every position compared to where it’s been in years past. Even if injuries pile up there’s ample depth in the Red Wings’ ranks, too, which should keep them from stumbling too hard. Detroit failing to reach its own potential in the coming season could leave ownership no choice but to make changes internally, something that might lead to unnecessary (not to mention destabilizing) turmoil for the team.
X factor: Derek Lalonde. Yzerman inserted the former Tampa Bay Lightning assistant into Detroit’s head-coaching job ahead of last season, and that was a clear learning experience for Lalonde. How can he be better now behind the bench and help these Red Wings rise? Detroit’s special teams improved slightly last season over the previous campaign, and there were improvements made on the defensive side as well. But for Detroit to overtake some of the other Eastern Conference power players and work its way into the playoff picture, its coach has to be pushing the right buttons. Can Lalonde maximize the Red Wings roster and get the most out of their top talents in particular?
Fantasy outlook: With an upgraded defense, Husso is a candidate to rebound from a disappointing debut after the Red Wings invested in him last offseason.
Bold prediction: Lucas Raymond has his breakout.
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Last season: 42-32-8, 92 points. Missed playoffs.
Stanley Cup odds: +7500
Key players added: F Gustav Nyquist, F Ryan O’Reilly, D Luke Schenn
Key players lost: F Matt Duchene, F Ryan Johansen
Most fascinating player: O’Reilly. Never mind the fact he’s considered to be one of the game’s premier two-way centers. The case can be made that O’Reilly and his decision to sign a four-year contract with the Predators represents something. Exactly what it represents is the mystery and that’s the point. Back in March, the Predators used the trade deadline to hit a reset button of sorts which allowed David Poile to set the stage for his heir, Barry Trotz, to take over as the club’s GM. Trotz kept it going by trading Johansen and placing Matt Duchene on waivers. Only to then place the Preds in a position to have one of the more surprising hauls by signing three veterans led by O’Reilly which has led to questions about if the Preds could plausibly be in contention for the playoffs after last’s absence snapped an eight-year postseason streak.
Best case: New Predators coach Andrew Brunette’s prolific philosophies provide the roster with the sort of goals that eluded them last season. And if that happens? It’s possible that Brunette’s tactics could lead to the Predators returning to the postseason. Even with the trades they made at the deadline plus Johansen being out since February, the Predators still finished three points shy of the final wild-card spot. Brunette’s time as the interim coach of the Panthers, along with his lone year as a Devils assistant, saw both teams finish among the top 10 in the league in a number of offensive categories. Getting those sorts of results for a team that missed the playoffs by three points while having a minus-9 goal differential could prove crucial in Brunette’s first year behind the bench.
Worst case: Does one really exist? Let’s say the Predators miss the playoffs. It’s a consecutive campaign without the postseason for a team that was already considered by some to be a bit of a guessing game when it came to the playoffs. If that happens, then, the Predators can continue to stockpile more draft capital and/or prospects considering they have nine pending UFAs led by Tyson Barrie who could be moved at or ahead of the trade deadline. So what happens if they do make the playoffs? Then the question becomes: Can the Preds make it out of the first round for the first time since the 2017-18 season?
X factor: How much support will Juuse Saros receive this season? No goaltender played more games, logged more minutes, faced more shots and made more saves than Saros during the 2022-23 season. What he’s accomplished since taking over as the team’s full-time starter is give the Predators a goaltender who is capable of starting more than 60 times in a season at a time in which more teams are shifting to tandems. Providing Saros with more support either in the form of facing fewer shots or scoring more goals could lessen the burden carried by one of the NHL’s premier goaltenders.
Fantasy outlook: Second-line winger Tommy Novak is looking to replicate, if not better, last season’s unanticipated haul of 43 points in 51 games. There’s no reason to believe Novak can’t again flirt with a similar pace, but this time through a full run in the NHL.
Bold prediction: The Predators make the playoffs.
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Last season: 35-37-10, 80 points. Missed playoffs.
Stanley Cup odds: +7500
Key players added: F Max Pacioretty, D Joel Edmundson
Key players lost: F Conor Sheary
Most fascinating player: Alex Ovechkin. Who isn’t enthralled by Ovechkin and his continued milestone chase? How often is there a player in the league within legitimate striking distance of setting new benchmarks and re-writing history books on a nightly basis? It’s impossible not to get caught up in that, whether you’re rooting for Ovechkin to usurp Wayne Gretzky as the NHL’s top all-time goal scorer or not. Washington didn’t have much else to be optimistic about last year beyond Ovechkin pumping in goals to get him closer to Gretzky’s mark. There’s little doubt Ovechkin’s continued prowess will draw everyone in again, regardless of how the Capitals are doing around him.
Best case: Washington GM Brian MacLellan made the right call trading players away at the deadline last season and letting the Capitals slide out of the playoff field. The changes made since then all combine now to boost Washington back into contending status. First-year head coach Spencer Carbery hits the ground running with a strong first month of the season to set Washington up well. Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson and Tom Wilson — who all missed significant time with injuries last season — are stronger than ever and remain healthy for a full 82-game season. Pacioretty is back on the ice too and supports the Capitals’ offense enough to see them back into the postseason. And of course, Ovechkin gets closer to his next milestone.
Worst case: Washington gets off the ground but never takes flight. Its top talents have lost a step against the league’s tougher competition, and Carbery can’t find the right combinations up front to steer Washington out of its skid. Evgeny Kuznetsov remains disgruntled with his place in the organization and that seeps into his diminished play on the ice. The Capitals can’t gain any momentum and it’s obvious they’re done before their calendar flips to 2024.
X factor: It’s all about the veterans — namely Backstrom, T.J. Oshie and Kuznetsov. What more do they have to give the Capitals now? Backstrom has put his body through a recent hip resurfacing. Oshie missed the end of last season with injury and underwent a double ablation surgery in the offseason. And Kuznetsov admitted to a lingering back issue that hindered him most of last season. Plus, there’s Pacioretty’s condition coming off two torn Achilles. If those types of problems crop up again, how will the Capitals cope? Is there enough depth to patch the holes? Washington is in a precarious position as it is with the number of 30-somethings it leans on every night. Last season showed how fast the wheels fall off without some of those key players. Is Washington doomed to face a similar fate this season?
Fantasy outlook: If things go well, Darcy Kuemper would be a fantasy boon, but his fortune will ride with the overall fortunes of his teammates.
Bold prediction: Ovechkin will score his 850th career goal Jan. 18, 2024.
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Last season: 38-37-7, 83 points. Missed playoffs.
Stanley Cup odds: +7500
Key players added: F Teddy Blueger, D Ian Cole, D Carson Soucy, F Pius Suter
Key players lost: G Collin Delia, D Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Most fascinating player: Filip Hronek. There’s no shortage of candidates, yet what might give Hronek the edge is all the moving pieces involved with his situation. It starts with the fact that the Canucks parted with two picks — namely the first-rounder they received in the Bo Horvat trade to get Hronek. Then there’s the fact he sustained a season-ending shoulder injury that limited his time with the Canucks to four games. Finally, a healthy Hronek proved to be the first move in the Canucks’ attempt to revamp their defense beyond Quinn Hughes. Since getting Hronek in a trade, the Canucks used the offseason to sign Cole and Soucy with the aim those collective arrives can help a defensive unit that fielded the NHL’s worst penalty kill with a 71.6% success rate in addition to being seventh in goals allowed per 60 in 5-on-5 play.
Best case: Any of the progress Rick Tocchet made can manifest itself over an entire season that could see them in the wild-card hunt. It starts with the notion the Canucks won 20 of their 36 games with Tocchet on the bench. That was the 12th most victories in the NHL during that time. Even though the Canucks are still in cap limbo, they addressed their needs by getting a pair of two-way forwards such as Blueger and Suter in addition to defensemen such as Cole and Soucy. If the Canucks can harness what they did under Tocchet, show signs of defensive improvement all while remaining above league average in goals scored? It’s possible they could be among the teams pushing for a playoff spot.
Worst case: None of the progress Tocchet made manifests itself over an entire season which would bring the franchise back to where they were when they fired Bruce Boudreau and hired Tocchet in the first place. Last offseason, there was the expectation that the Canucks could be among the teams to challenge for a playoff spot only to end up closer to a lottery spot rather than one in the postseason. It leaves the Canucks hypothetically facing two realities: One in which they find a way to extend what they did in the late part of last season into something that comes with long-term results. Or? The second is they’re forced to once again search for the answer to the question of what will it take for them to find the success that has eluded them?
X factor: What about the Canucks’ goaltending? Last season, they used four goaltenders to get through a season that saw three of them play in more than 20 games. Of the three who had more than 20 games, none of them finished with a GAA below 3.00 with Thatcher Demko being the only one with a save percentage of more than .900 with a .901 mark. Demko and Spencer Martin are back with the notion that any improvements they show could play a major role in the Canucks trying to overcome the defensive challenges that plagued them throughout all of last season.
Fantasy outlook: Now healthy, Demko will have an easier time of it with new defenders Cole and Soucy aboard. The Canucks were significantly better defensively once Tocchet took over midseason. Poised to earn around 60 starts, Demko presents as a top-15 fantasy goalie once more.
Bold prediction: The Elias Pettersson contract speculation will loom over everything.
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Last season: 25-48-9, 59 points. Missed playoffs.
Stanley Cup odds: +15000
Key players added: D Damon Severson, D Ivan Provorov
Key players lost: None
Most fascinating player: Adam Fantilli. Columbus needs a feel-good story to rally around. Fantilli could be it. The Blue Jackets’ third overall pick is an exciting center prospect who should get a chance to showcase his talent early and often for the Blue Jackets. He’s already shown some of that in the preseason, scoring his first goal in a Columbus uniform and appearing focused on transitioning seamlessly to the regular season. What happens for Fantilli when he gets there? How will he mesh into an offense that already includes the likes of Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine, two players eager to see Columbus out of what was a dark, dismal, disappointing 2022-23? Inside and outside the organization there are undoubtedly high hopes for how Fantilli can put Columbus back on track.
Best case: The Blue Jackets don’t spiral out of the playoff conversation immediately (as they did a year ago) and instead find some consistent success out of the gate. With the Mike Babcock distraction dealt with already and new coach Pascal Vincent settled in, Columbus finds a rhythm from its forward group on down. The new additions of Severson and Provorov to the blue line — plus the return of a healthy Zach Werenski — turn Columbus’ defense into a bona fide beast. After losing too much of last season to injury, a healthy Laine re-takes his mantle as a dominant scoring threat, Gaudreau emerges as a genuine superstar, Werenski plays a full 82-game slate anchoring the club’s blue line and Elvis Merzlikins puts his best foot forward in the No. 1 netminder role. That combines to keep Columbus in the playoff hunt through April.
Worst case: There’s another wasted season ahead for Columbus. Despite Babcock departing in September, the fallout from the internal scandal doesn’t dissipate as quickly and remains a distraction leading into the season. The Blue Jackets struggle to find their gait and injuries to key players pop up too often again. Fantilli can’t find his footing against NHL competition, and that drags the Blue Jackets down physically and emotionally. Gaudreau can’t find his best game, and Merzlikins has no help in front of him to keep pucks out of the net. The futility of watching another bad year play out leads GM Jarmo Kekalainen to make drastic changes across the board.
X factor: Vincent. There’s no way around it — Vincent wasn’t put in the best position to succeed. Stepping in when Babcock was being forced out is a tough spot to start from in your first NHL head coaching job, no matter how comfortable he might have already been within the Blue Jackets’ organization. Beyond just that drama, Vincent has plenty on his shoulder all of a sudden trying to bring Columbus back from the proverbial brink. The organization can’t keep wasting time and burning years off key contracts to top players. How well will Vincent tackle the challenge in front of him? The Blue Jackets’ prospects this season might hang in the balance.
Fantasy outlook: The Blue Jackets massively upgraded their blue line this offseason, by virtue of Werenski returning to health in conjunction with trades for Severson and Provorov.
Bold prediction: Kekalainen is fired before next offseason.
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Last season: 37-38-7, 81 points. Missed playoffs.
Stanley Cup odds: +7500
Key players added: F Kevin Hayes
Key players lost: F Josh Leivo, F Tyler Pitlick
Most fascinating player: Hayes. What once began as a megadeal ultimately led to the Blues getting their much-coveted top-six center for a 2024 sixth-round pick while the Flyers also retained 50 percent of his salary. Part of what makes Hayes’ arrival alluring is the fact he offers the Blues a venerable anchor down the middle with six 40-point seasons who also logged the third-most defensive zone starts by a Flyers forward last season. Having someone who can contribute on both ends could potentially play a role in the Blues reversing course on a 38-goal differential from last season that further amplified their struggles.
Best case: Everything implemented by first-year Blues assistant Mike Weber allows the team to find the defensive cohesion that eluded them last season. Weber, who spent last season with the Rochester Americans in the AHL, was brought in to help organize a defensive structure that made the Blues one of the most porous teams in the league. Finding a solution for those issues could aid in providing more comfort for Jordan Binnington and promising rookie Joel Hofer, who only has eight games of NHL experience having spent the majority of the last two seasons in the AHL.
Worst case: An inability to find some sort of defensive consistency. In most cases, a team with deficiencies in certain areas can use the offseason to retool those areas by potentially changing their personnel. Unless it’s the Blues — whose plans were rather complex and limited by the fact they have four defensemen who each have three more years left on their contracts — earn more than $4 million annually with the additional caveat all of them have no-trade clauses. It’s another reason why moves such as trading for Hayes, promoting Hofer and hiring Weber have a chance to play a vital role.
X factor: It really is whatever Weber can do to turnaround the Blues’ defensive issues. Focusing this much on an assistant coach can be considered a bit much. What justifies the discussion about Weber is the fact the Blues were in the bottom 10 in shots allowed per 60, goals allowed per 60, scoring chances allowed per 60 and high-danger chances per 60. Having that context along with the contract dynamics is what makes Weber and whatever he can accomplish with the Blues this season paramount to any progress they seek in 2023-24.
Fantasy outlook: While defender Torey Krug has the higher fantasy ceiling, it’s worth noting Justin Faulk is coming off the most productive — to the tune of 50 points — season of his NHL career. Faulk also doesn’t shy away from shooting on net and blocking opposing shots.
Bold prediction: Jordan Binnington gets his first fighting major.
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Last season: 28-40-14, 70 points. Missed playoffs.
Stanley Cup odds: +15000
Key players added: F Nick Bjugstad, F Logan Cooley, D Travis Dermott, D Matt Dumba, D Sean Durzi, F Alexander Kerfoot, F Jason Zucker
Key players lost: D Connor Mackey
Most fascinating player: Cooley. An already noticeable offseason received even more attention when the Coyotes announced they signed Cooley to an entry-level contract. Cooley, who was the No. 3 pick from the 2022 NHL draft, announced in May that he would return to the University of Minnesota for his sophomore season only to then sign his ELC in late July. What made Cooley a lottery pick was the fact he’s been projected as a two-way, top-six center. The 19-year-old used what ultimately became his only season at Minnesota to show what made him so promising by finishing his freshman year with 22 goals and 60 points in 39 games to help the Golden Gophers to a national title overtime defeat. And while the United States finished third at the U-20 World Junior Championships, Cooley excelled with seven goals and 14 points in seven games.
Best case: Reaching the 30-win mark and/or the 80-point plateau could be used as something of a benchmark to evaluate the Coyotes’ rebuild. The Coyotes haven’t won more than 30 games since the 2019-20 season with their most recent 80-point campaign coming during the 2018-19 season. Keep in mind, the Coyotes went from a pair of consecutive seasons that saw them finish with less than 60 points to finishing with 70 points in 2022-23. A considerable amount of that progress was guided by members of their young core such as Barrett Hayton, Clayton Keller, Matias Maccelli, J.J. Moser and Nick Schmaltz. It’s a group that has now added veterans such as Dumba, Kerfoot and Zucker in addition to an offseason trade that saw them add Durzi to further strengthen their roster.
Worst case: Not living up to any of the intrigue they’ve created over the offseason. As it stands, the Coyotes are still in that space in which they finished 25 points out of a playoff spot while still being 12 points above the fewest points in the league. Yet they still reinforced their top-nine forward corps and top-four defensive options. Even if the Coyotes are nowhere near a playoff spot, they can still help themselves ahead of the trade deadline considering Dumba and Zucker are part of a six-player pending UFA class who could see some if its members get moved for draft capital.
X factor: Winning on the road. Compare the Coyotes’ home record to the rest of the NHL. They nearly won the same amount of home games as Stanley Cup contenders such as the Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers. Playing on the road, however, presented quite a few challenges as the Coyotes finished with a league-low seven victories. Part of what made their offseason haul considerably enterprising was the potential effect those new players could have. One way to measure that impact is if they can aid the Coyotes’ young core in winning more games away from Mullett Arena.
Fantasy outlook: Keller is due to score a bunch again after erupting for 86 points in his sixth season. Los Angeles export Durzi is the most intriguing blue-line fantasy pick, as a threat to boot either Juuso Valimaki or Moser from the power play, while regularly contributing in other fantasy-relevant facets.
Bold prediction: André Tourigny gets a Jack Adams nomination.
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Last season: 31-45-6, 68 points. Missed playoffs.
Stanley Cup odds: +20000
Key players added: F Alex Newhook
Key players lost: D Joel Edmundson
Most fascinating player: Juraj Slafkovsky. Montreal shocked (or at the very least surprised) more than a few pundits when selecting Slafkovsky No. 1 overall in the 2022 NHL entry draft. Expectations were naturally high for Slafkovsky entering his rookie season, but the freshman produced a lackluster 10 points in his first 39 games. Slafkovsky’s year ended there due to injury and now all eyes will be on how the sophomore bounces back. The Canadiens took a risk using their top pick on Slafkovsky, and granted he is only 19 with plenty of runway left to prove himself on. Will that begin to happen immediately when the new season starts? Or is Montreal going to be waiting even longer to see the best in Slafkovsky’s game?
Best case: The Canadiens need another strong season of growth for their youngest players. And that goes beyond just seeing Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Slafkovsky and others have great statistical showings on the ice. Best case, Montreal’s 2023-24 campaign also includes some sustained stretches of winning that allows its young core to truly taste what it means to be in the hunt for something — to be chasing a significant outcome. Maybe that’s just a few weeks of being on the playoff periphery and getting a feel for what that means. Maybe it’s seeing consistency from their top-six and watching chemistry develop. Montreal just wants the needle to keep moving in a position direction.
Worst case: Montreal’s had its problems with injuries (Caufield, for instance, was out from January on last year following shoulder surgery). The Canadiens are tied to their young talents and when they go down, so do Montreal’s chances of taking those necessary steps forward that will dictate the franchise’s future. Beyond just good health, the Canadiens require more out of skaters like Kirby Dach (38 points in 58 games last season) and have to avoid letting guys like Suzuki fall into stagnant roles. Montreal can’t let its foot off the gas now or be derailed by the things they can control — like continuously putting players in the best position to succeed.
X factor: Defense. Montreal was poor at defending off the rush last season. Too many pucks were going in the net and deflating the Canadiens prospects night after night. The Canadiens have to get more buy-in on the defensive side from their forward group, starting with top-six skaters like Josh Anderson. Montreal chose not to upgrade its goaltending tandem from Jake Allen and Samuel Montembeault, and a veteran like Edmundson won’t be on the back end to provide support, either. Montreal has to address its defense in other ways if it’s going to continue not only generating those key offensive opportunities but leave itself enough of a buffer for it to matter on the scoresheet.
Fantasy outlook: Rafael Harvey-Pinard put up huge numbers across just 34 games, so he’ll be one to watch at the start of the season to see if he can repeat it.
Bold prediction: Dach becomes a solid No. 2 center.
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Last season: 31-38-13, 75 points. Missed playoffs.
Stanley Cup odds: +20000
Key players added: F Ryan Poehling, F Garnet Hathaway, D Marc Staal
Key players lost: F Kevin Hayes, F James van Riemsdyk, D Ivan Provorov, D Tony DeAngelo
Most fascinating player: Sean Couturier. The Flyers have needed a healthy Couturier back in the lineup, not just for what he adds on the scoresheet but in a leadership capacity as well. Philadelphia is deep in rebuilding mode and players like Couturier — who hasn’t played since December 2021 due to back issues — are hard to come by (or quantify) in support of a team through its time of turbulence. Couturier is a former Selke Trophy winner, and his return should be a beacon of optimism for the Flyers as they move into what’s likely to be another difficult season.
Best case: Philadelphia is far from win-now mode. What qualifies as success is taking a step forward; simply being better than it was a year ago. The Flyers have exciting young players like Cam York who get much-needed experience against NHL talents and begin building confidence. Travis Konecny — still with the team despite constant rumors he’d be traded — ignites the Flyers’ offense early and that does eventually allow GM Danny Briere to flip him at the trade deadline for valuable assets in Philadelphia’s ongoing re-tool. The Flyers are fun, but don’t hurt their chances of grabbing another good spot in the draft lottery.
Worst case: The only downside for Philadelphia is being too good. The Flyers want to stock with the cupboards with another top prospect; that won’t happen if they rack up too many wins. Coach John Tortorella getting greedy and pushing his team too hard that it turns into points in the standings hurts their ultimate position in the drafting ones. Briere can’t find the right partners to engage with at the trade deadline and Philadelphia loses out there, too. The Flyers wind up picking too high at the draft in June and miss out on what might have been if they’d stumbled more in the regular season.
X factor: Tortorella. When a coach hates to lose as much as he does, rebuilds can be agonizing. But it’s what Philadelphia must go through to truly patch up the organization’s holes. Can Tortorella stick to the plan without alienating any of his players in the process? He’s managed that so far, it seems. The commitment to being patient has been palpable. It must remain that way for Philadelphia’s sake. And riding any of the Flyers’ prized prospects too harshly won’t pay dividends, either. Philadelphia chose the waiting game, and everyone has to lean into.
Fantasy outlook: With Provorov and DeAngelo out the door, York has a clear path to power-play quarterback duties.
Bold prediction: Couturier will be comeback player of the year.
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Last season: 26-49-7, 59 points. Missed playoffs.
Stanley Cup odds: +17500
Key players added: F Connor Bedard, F Colin Blackwell, F Taylor Hall, F Ryan Donato, F Nick Foligno, F Corey Perry
Key players lost: D Ian Mitchell, F Jonathan Toews, G Alex Stalock
Most fascinating player: Bedard. For years, he’s been discussed as the NHL’s next generational talent upon arrival. Now another set of expectations awaits the 18-year-old in that he’s being charged with helping turn around an Original Six franchise that just moved on from icons Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews. Bedard is one of the primary figures of a rebuild that the Blackhawks believe can eventually see them go from a franchise that wins the lottery to one that can once again win the Stanley Cup. In the interim, it appears the more immediate focus for the Blackhawks is watching Bedard handle the demands of what comes with being a top-six, if not, top-line center in his maiden campaign.
Best case: Giving Bedard every possible chance to succeed with the understanding there are multiple ways to accomplish that goal. It started when the Blackhawks traded for Hall to give Bedard a veteran top-six scoring winger who also understands the demands that come with being the No. 1 pick in addition to winning a Hart Trophy. Bedard will likely receive the 5-on-5 and power-play minutes needed in order for him to start tapping into his potential as a top-line center. Those are a few of the on-ice avenues the Blackhawks could take. Another is ensuring they continue to add more to a farm system that is already considered to be among the strongest in the NHL.
Worst case: Not doing enough to give their future the strongest possible chance for long-term success. While Bedard is now the centerpiece of their rebuild, he is not the only young player on the roster or trying to make the roster out of camp. The Blackhawks watched Philipp Kurashev score a career-best 25 points and average more than 17 minutes in ice time last season. They saw Lukas Reichel spend most of the season in the AHL only to emerge as full-time player in March who finished with seven goals and 15 points in 23 games. There’s also the contributions that were made by several players under 25 such as Mackenzie Entwistle, Cole Guttman, Wyatt Kaiser, Boris Katchouk, Isaak Phillips, Taylor Raddysh, Filip Roos and Arvid Soderblom.
X factor: Kevin Korchinski and Alex Vlasic. What they’ve both done in training camp is present the Blackhawks with two more prospects who appear ready to take the next step. Finding defensive consistency was an area of concern for a Blackhawks roster that was a consistent bottom five team in several defensive categories such as goals allowed per 60 and scoring chances allowed per 60. Enter Korchinski and Vlasic. Korchinski played last season for the WHL’s Seattle Thunderbirds in a top-four role that saw him finish with 11 goals and 73 points in 54 games. Vlasic spent the majority of last year in the AHL but was a late-season call up who averaged more than 19 minutes in his six-game cameo.
Fantasy outlook: Defenseman Seth Jones projects to lead Chicago’s blue line in scoring, with ease, in amassing 50 points or so and a good number of shots and blocked shots. Playing with Bedard at even strength and with the extra skater will boost Jones’ fantasy potential.
Bold prediction: Bedard scores at least 35 goals.
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Last season: 23-47-12, 58 points. Missed playoffs.
Stanley Cup odds: +20000
Key players added: D Radko Gudas, F Alex Killorn, D Ilya Lyubushkin
Key players lost: F Derek Grant, D Kevin Shattenkirk
Most fascinating player: Jamie Drysdale. What has made the Ducks’ future rather promising is the young talent they possess in the form of Mason McTavish, Troy Terry and Trevor Zegras. It’s a list that includes Drysdale with the caveat that he’s only had one full season considering he sustained a season-ending injury just eight games into the 2022-23 campaign. Getting a healthy Drysdale will give the Ducks a top-four, puck-moving defenseman who is one of the faces of a rebuild that has been heralded as having what’s believed to be one of the strongest assortment of defensive prospects by an NHL club.
Best case: Everything first-year coach Greg Cronin and his staff implements leads to the Ducks gradually improving over the regular season. One of the reasons why the Ducks hired Cronin is the notion he has used his career to develop the reputation as a developer and teacher who’s constantly attempting to develop every part of a player’s game. It’s possible that Cronin’s work could be parlayed into the Ducks winning more than 30 games and finishing with close to 80 points — something they last achieved in the 2021-22 season only to follow that up with a 23-win campaign that saw them finish with just 58 points for the worst record in the NHL.
Worst case: 339. The significance of that number is that it’d be one additional goal higher than the amount the Ducks allowed last year to clinch the not-so-coveted distinction of allowing the most goals in the NHL. Exactly how trying was last season for the Ducks? They finished last in shots allowed per 60, scoring chances allowed per 60, high-danger scoring chances allowed per 60 and high-danger goals allowed per 60 while finishing second to last in goals allowed per 60. It’s another reason why the decisions to add Gudas, Killorn and Lyubushkin could prove valuable for the Ducks.
X factor: Whatever happens with Leo Carlsson. Drafting Carlsson over Adam Fantilli with the No. 2 pick of last summer’s NHL draft was one that generated a bit of discussion in what was an otherwise straightforward draft. Ducks GM Pat Verbeek stressed how Carlsson eventually became the club’s “unanimous” decision after what he accomplished playing against older and more physically mature competition as the top-line center for Sweden at the IIHF Men’s World Championships. They’ll get some feedback on the decision soon, as he made the opening night NHL roster.
Fantasy outlook: Outside of dynasty competition, roster hopeful Carlsson merits monitoring instead of immediately drafting in all but the deepest fantasy leagues. Even if he manages to stick in the NHL for most of this season, a likely role in the bottom six won’t reap immediate fantasy dividends.
Bold prediction: The Ducks’ anniversary jersey becomes their primary one.
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Last season: 22-44-16, 60 points. Missed playoffs.
Stanley Cup odds: +20000
Key players added: G Mackenzie Blackwood, F Anthony Duclair, F Mikael Granlund, F Mike Hoffman, D Jan Rutta, F Givani Smith, F Filip Zadina
Key players lost: D Erik Karlsson, F Andreas Johnsson, F Steven Lorentz, G James Reimer
Most fascinating player: William Eklund. A torn labrum in late March limited Eklund, who the Sharks drafted seventh in 2021, to just eight NHL games. Still, the Sharks watched one of their top prospects score 17 goals and 41 points in 54 games while playing for the Sharks’ AHL affiliate in what was his first season in North American hockey. The Sharks announced at the time of his injury they expected Eklund to return prior to the start of camp. Of course, that announcement was made well before an offseason that has led to the Sharks going through quite a few roster alterations.
Best case: All their offseason trades help them reach their desired destination of having the strongest possible rebuild. Getting forwards such as Duclair, Granlund and Hoffman hypothetically offers the Sharks some options. For one, those three players give them a line’s worth of offensive production they previously did not have. Yet what might become their greatest contribution is the fact all three are pending UFAs the Sharks could plausibly look to move for draft capital at or ahead of the NHL trade deadline. That along with a healthy Eklund playing a full season’s worth of games could offer more insight into the Sharks’ direction.
Worst case: Not taking advantage of the ways to improve their future. Whether it be through the draft or trades, the last few years has seen the Sharks add to a prospect base that is led by Will Smith, Shakir Mukhamadullin, Filip Bystedt, Quentin Musty and Eklund. It’s possible this season could see them strengthen what they already have. That’s what makes their roster headlined by eight pending UFAs an item to watch. Parlaying a number of those players into draft capital and/or prospects would see them continue to build upon what they’ve done to this point. Failing to capitalize on that, however, could potentially add more time to their rebuild.
X factor: All the talk about the Sharks possibly flipping parts of their roster ahead of the deadline for draft capital and prospects is made complicated by the fact they can only retain one more salary this season. CapFriendly shows they still have two more years left on Brent Burns‘ salary at $2.72 million annually while having four more years of Karlsson’s contract at $1.5 million annually. One of the items that has allowed teams in the Sharks’ position to maximize their leverage at the deadline is the ability to retain salary. Yet this season and next season places the Sharks facing some challenges compared to their counterparts who could be able to offer a contending team a better deal ahead or at the trade deadline.
Fantasy outlook: Whichever defenseman lands on San Jose’s top power play — be it Mario Ferraro or Jacob MacDonald — deserves a little extra fantasy love from simply falling into that fruitful position.
Bold prediction: The Sharks win the draft lottery.
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Sports
Your guide to MLB free agency: Rankings and contract projections for the top 50 free agents
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2 hours agoon
November 11, 2025By
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Kiley McDanielNov 6, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- ESPN MLB Insider
- Kiley McDaniel covers MLB prospects, the MLB Draft and more, including trades and free agency.
- Has worked for three MLB teams.
Co-author of Author of ‘Future Value’
The MLB offseason is officially here! As free agency kicks off at 5 p.m. ET on Thursday, it’s time to rank the 2025-26 free agent class and predict how much money each player will get.
Let’s start with a quick rundown of what you need to know about these rankings and projections.
For simplicity, the players are ranked by the size of their projected guaranteed contracts, including the posting fee for foreign professionals, so technically it’s by the projected total cost to the signing team. (There are a number of players from Japan’s NPB and Korea’s KBO listed — that’s meant to be all the players who could in theory come to MLB; not all of them will this winter.) The contract projections are a mix of my opinions and those of agents and executives, but the goal is to predict what will happen, not decide what each player is worth.
The qualifying offer (QO) is a notable piece of this puzzle — a team can offer a pending free agent a one-year, $22.025 million deal that he can accept, or the team gets compensation if he signs elsewhere — and I see 10 players who should be offered the QO (I added an asterisk to their projected contracts). That happens to be every free agent projected for over $50 million who is eligible to get the QO, and one player who seems to be borderline: Lucas Giolito.
Here are last year’s projections to get a feel for how I did. One measure is to compare my projections with the actual contracts. There were 124 players I projected to get big league deals who did sign one — I projected $3.58 billion in guarantees and those players received $3.44 billion in guarantees.
I project overall spending this winter at a hair over $3.5 billion. That’s almost exactly where last winter’s spending landed, though I projected $3.78 billion for it at the time, suggesting overall spending could be down a bit this offseason. Shane Bieber and Jack Flaherty opting into their contracts was a bit surprising and ticked this winter’s projected spending down a little over $100 million.
Buzz around the industry is mixed about the market as a whole, so I’d expect a slower start to free agency as both sides feel out what teams are looking to accomplish. On to the projections!
2025 team: Chicago Cubs
2026 Opening Day age: 29
Projected contract: 11 years, $418 million ($38M AAV)*
Tucker and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had long been circled as the two players who could potentially sign megadeals in this free agent class, but Tucker is alone at the top since Vlad Jr. got his extension (14 years, $500 million) during the 2025 season. Tucker had some ups and downs to his 2025 season, covered in my September breakdown (and polling of the industry) of his free agent market. I go into a lot of depth about the comparables and how the market values Tucker vs. Guerrero.
The conclusion from that exercise (via the industry projections of his contract) is that Tucker should come in just below $400 million. I’ve found from my experience projecting these types of deals that the top-tier free agents tend to beat those projections. This is largely due to the competition among top teams to get the true difference-makers, and also because many teams think they can “make” role players from their own prospects and players signed on smaller free agent deals, thus shifting some spending from those types of players to stars. Every team knows what the “expected” contract is for these top players; a handful of interested teams aim for that target more or less, then run into competitive forces; and at least one team is willing to go a bit over the projection because of the lack of elite players available at any one time.
Tucker has been very consistent (he has the 11th-best WAR and is the ninth-best hitter in baseball since 2021) and has been lauded since early in his high school career for his pretty left-handed swing and big power, going fifth in the 2015 draft. That’s the kind of long track record and consistency (read: high floor, low bust potential) teams look for when they’re making giant investments.
The risk for a corner outfielder who will be 30 years old in the second season of his deal is that he could athletically fall off a cliff in the middle of this contract. Tucker is insulated from that concern a bit because he has a track record of being above average on the basepaths and defensively despite below-average top-end speed and only solid-average bat speed. He relies more on feel and precision than pure tools, thus the thinking is he’ll age better than the generic very good corner outfielder.
2025 team: Houston Astros
2026 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: 6 years, $168 million ($28M AAV)*
Valdez is an easy sell: He’s a dependable (fifth-most regular-season innings since 2021) lefty with extensive playoff experience (most playoff starts and innings since 2020) who has regularly posted ERAs in the high 2s to mid-3s, averaging 3.20 since 2021, and that mark is driven by the highest ground ball rate in the league (among starters) in that span. Plus, the velocity of his sinker went up a bit in 2025 after a dip in 2024. On the other hand, he’s about to turn 32, doesn’t miss many bats relative to other nine-figure starters, and his 3.66 ERA in 2025 is his worst since 2019.
So, you’re not getting an ace, or at least not as most people think about an ace, but you’re likely getting a steady No. 2/No. 3 starter and clear starter in a playoff series, and you’re just hoping that he doesn’t transition to a softer-tossing back-end starter on this contract. The best recent comp is Aaron Nola (seven years, $172 million), though Valdez is hitting the market at roughly 18 months older than Nola did, so six years seems likely.
2025 team: New York Yankees
2026 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 6 years, $165 million ($27.5M AAV)
Bellinger won the NL MVP as a 23-year-old in 2019 with a 7.8 WAR season but hasn’t reached those heights again, relying more on being well-rounded and producing regular quality contact rather than massive exit velos. On the bright side, his second-best season was 2025, when he posted 4.9 WAR with above-average baserunning and defensive value.
Bellinger is an average defensive center fielder who is above average in a corner-outfield spot and solid at first base, as well. His wide base of skills and versatility give him a high floor, and the adjustability of changing his offensive approach in the big leagues suggests he’ll age well.
There aren’t many potential core position players in this class, but Bellinger still being young for a free agent while fitting well at four positions should give him a robust market. I see five or six years here, and I think he’ll clear $150 million.
2025 team: Boston Red Sox
2026 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: 5 years, $160 million ($32M AAV)
Bregman opted out of a $40 million player option (with deferred money moving the net present value just under $32 million by one calculation) to hit the market again now one year older than last winter, but with his offensive stats ticking up a bit in 2025. Last winter, I projected six years, $187 million and Bregman’s high-end offers didn’t meet his liking, so he opted for a shorter deal with a higher AAV (only slightly higher after deferrals) and opt-outs: three years, $120 million.
Age is a massive factor in the math teams do to set the years and price they’re willing to pay to sign free agents, so five years is probably where things land if Bregman ends up getting a longer-term deal to his liking. I think teams with real interest would be fine with a roughly $30 million AAV at a four- or five-year term. My best guess is that negotiations will end up just above that because Bregman is the most consistent option (at least 14% above league average as a hitter every year of his career) of the hitters behind Tucker, with real age, defensive or consistency questions hindering the other hitters in contention for this kind of payday.
5. Tatsuya Imai, SP
2025 team: Seibu Lions (NPB)
2026 Opening Day age: 27
Projected contract: 6 years, $135 million ($22.5M AAV) + $22.125 million posting fee
Imai likely gets the biggest deal of any foreign professional this winter and is more of a solid No. 2 or No. 3 starter with some risk to get there than a potential ace, but his age and the lack of a qualifying offer will help bring up the amount teams are willing to pay for him. Imai will be subject to the posting system; the posting fee for this projected contract would be just over $22 million, paid to his NPB club, for an all-in cost of just over $157 million ($26.2M AAV).
A big selling point on Imai is his cratering walk rate, going from a BB/9 of 5.1 to 4.1 to 3.6 to 2.5 over the past four seasons, punctuated by his 2025 line: 163⅔ IP and a 1.92 ERA. Imai is 5-foot-11 and throws from a lower slot, so he creates a flat plane, excellent for swings and misses at the top of the zone for his 93-97 mph four-seam fastball that hit 99 mph last season. His miss rate on the pitch wasn’t elite because he didn’t throw it at the top of the zone very often, but that’s something that can be fine-tuned in the big leagues.
Imai has an above-average splitter, but his slider is a more interesting topic. His slider doesn’t slide: It averages arm-side movement, like Trey Yesavage’s, so it can be an effective pitch even if it’s unusual to see (especially when paired with a splitter and above-average fastball velocity, like Yesavage does). There’s some conventional wisdom that a backup slider is the best pitch in baseball (because nobody knows when a pitcher will misthrow the pitch like that), but that’s meant as a one-off, not a recurring quality to shoot for.
You could question Imai’s size or fastball miss rate or shorter track record of elite command, but the biggest concern teams have is if his slider will play in the big leagues for the long term. It played well this season, with a 45% miss rate and .212 xwOBA, both well better than MLB average for a slider. These qualities add up to both uniqueness in Imai’s shapes and release traits as well as adjustability due to his improving command: Some teams see these two qualities as the secret to projecting longevity and improvement with pitchers.
Every team would love to land a steady midrotation starter on a deal where half of it will take place in his 20s. If I miss this projection by $25 million or more, it’ll probably be because he got more money, not less.
2025 team: San Diego Padres
2026 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 5 years, $145 million ($29M AAV)*
Cease has been a reliable front-line starter for the past five seasons, making at least 32 starts each year and ranking fourth in that span in pitcher WAR, ahead of Tarik Skubal, Max Fried and Valdez. He tends to underperform his peripherals a bit, but that spiked this year, when he posted a 4.55 ERA while his ERA estimators were in the mid-3s.
Cease is a right-handed version of Blake Snell in a number of ways, with vertically oriented movement due to his higher slot, a fastball/breaking ball-heavy power approach (at least 80% fastball/slider to both righties and lefties) and an elevated walk rate at times paired with a big whiff rate. Cease hasn’t been good in the playoffs over five appearances (8.74 ERA), but there are only so many pitchers who can give quality innings in bulk with the chance to show flashes of ace-level pitching for spurts when the locations of their power stuff are dialed in.
I see five years at roughly $30 million AAV as the neighborhood he should land in, but comparable starting pitching options and the (likely) qualifying offer being tied to him might dampen his market a bit from there.
2025 team: Toronto Blue Jays
2026 Opening Day age: 28
Projected contract: 5 years, $130 million ($26M AAV)*
Whereas Tucker, Valdez and Bregman are steady, standout players, Bichette is one of a handful of players in the next tier of talent with mixed résumés but similar upside. He was good immediately in the big leagues and was one of the top 30 players in the sport from 2021 through 2023, averaging 4.5 WAR per year during that stretch. His 2024 season was cut in half by injuries, but he also hit .225 with career-low power numbers and it wasn’t that unlucky: He was notably worse, particularly at the plate, although his bat speed and foot speed were basically the same.
Then, Bichette bounced back in 2025, performing at or just above his 2023 levels at the plate, but his defense became more of an issue. His defensive metrics were the worst of his career, showing way below-average range at shortstop, something that could be pretty easily solved by moving him to second or third base. Bichette is the youngest of the MLB veteran free agents (a few potential NPB veterans are the only younger players) projected to land over $75 million.
His defensive contributions (though a position change addresses that), his durability and his 2024 offensive showing might make some teams pause, but Bichette has a solid track record with real upside. There’s a case he should make more than Marcus Semien’s seven-year, $175 million deal from 2022 (after a strong platform season as Toronto’s shortstop), though Semien hit 45 homers and was a superior baserunner and defender at that point, despite being three years older when he hit the market, which was also a hot, pre-labor stoppage market.
There’s also a chance Bichette’s market takes a turn similar to Bregman’s last winter, toward a shorter term with opt-outs (two or three years, roughly a $30 million AAV) if he doesn’t get the giant guarantee he’s looking for. This has a real chance to happen because Bichette could hit the market in his 20s next winter, and a full, healthy 2026, maybe even with better defense, would really help his case for a big long-term deal.
2025 team: Philadelphia Phillies
2026 Opening Day age: 33
Projected contract: 4 years, $128 million ($32M AAV)*
I polled the industry on Schwarber’s deal, and expectations are roughly around four years at $30 million per year, though both figures could end up a bit higher. Schwarber swatted 56 homers and had a .323 isolated power (slugging minus batting average) and a .414 xwOBA, which are all career highs. Because he has played just 13 games in the field over the past two seasons and is a soon-to-be 33-year-old designated hitter, his market will be much lower than you might expect for those power numbers.
One way to read the industry projections is that there’s an expectation that Schwarber will be very productive for the next two seasons (maybe three), and to get him under contract, you’ll have to either pay as though he will definitely be good or toss in a fourth year. Some execs believe that since at least one team will likely offer a fourth year, a smart move could be to add a fifth year, effectively at a much lower salary (like $7-10 million more in guaranteed money), to get the AAV lower for CBT considerations and also to max out the total guarantee to (potentially) win the bidding process. J.D. Martinez’s five-year, $110 million deal with the Red Sox in 2018 is one of the few relevant historical comps, but he was about three years younger than Schwarber is now.
If I were to give numbers for those three-, four- and five-year projections, it would be something like three years for $115 million ($38.3 AAV), four years for $128 million ($32 AAV) or five years for $135 million ($27 AAV). From Schwarber’s perspective, I’d probably take the four-year deal. It also wouldn’t shock me if some teams approached these three scenarios at $15 million lower on each of the guarantees because they weigh position and age much more heavily in their projections. If a team were to end up well above these figures, execs I spoke with think it would be the Phillies.
2025 team: New York Mets
2026 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: 4 years, $110 million ($27.5M AAV)
Alonso was anticipated to get $150 million or so last winter, and his expectations for a long-term deal weren’t met, so he returned to the Mets on a two-year, $54 million deal that had an opt-out, which he exercised. The combination of being a poor defensive first baseman going into his 30s and his offensive numbers trending down from his peak didn’t get teams excited last winter — and owner Steve Cohen didn’t mandate the Mets re-sign Alonso at any cost — so the market for a huge deal didn’t materialize.
In 2025, however, Alonso put up his best offensive numbers since his rookie season, and one key underlying metric (xwOBA) was the best of his career. What changed? His strikeout rate was down and his power numbers were up, which both would be affected by the shortening of his swing length. The shortness of his swing was in the 74th percentile (ranked 58th) this season after being in the 51st percentile (ranked 104th) last season, among qualified hitters.
Alonso’s baserunning and defensive metrics continue to regress, almost entirely due to his range; some evaluators think he should be a primary DH going forward, which would hurt his long-term value. There’s some of the Schwarber logic here — everyone in baseball would like to have Alonso for the next few seasons, but then the interest gets more mixed around season three or four. I could see some teams offering a fifth year, but for a number about half of the AAV listed above, so something more like $120-125 million guaranteed. The industry values a left-handed bat (Schwarber) more than a right-handed one (Alonso), so that combined with Schwarber’s better 2025 numbers makes up for him being older than Alonso. I think all that adds up to Schwarber securing a bigger guarantee than Alonso, but it might be quite close.
10. Munetaka Murakami, 3B
2025 team: Yakult Swallows (NPB)
2026 Opening Day age: 26
Projected contract: 5 years, $80 million ($16M AAV) + $13.875 million posting fee
Murakami missed being age-eligible to be posted last winter by a few months. His posting process has been anticipated since he burst onto the scene in 2022 and hit 56 home runs in his age-22 season in Japan. Since then, a combination of injuries, positional questions and contact issues has dampened evaluators’ enthusiasm a bit.
On the bright side, Murakami is a left-handed hitter with massive raw power: His 90th percentile exit velos would’ve been fifth in MLB, his maximum exit velo would be 12th and his hard-hit rate would be first. On the other hand, he’s probably a long-term first baseman (but hasn’t really played there before), his contact rates would be among the worst in MLB and he has faced lesser velocity in NPB. Some evaluators think his contact rate could improve — even while facing better pitchers in the U.S. — if he can make some mechanical/approach adjustments, but that’s obviously speculative.
The bull case is that Murakami’s combination of elite exit velos, hitting from the left side, having some defensive value in the infield and being in his mid-20s is rare enough on the free agent market to get him an eight-figure AAV over a five- or six-year deal, with some execs assuming the total outlay plus posting fee will eclipse $100 million, possibly by a big margin. It’ll take a team with that perspective of Murakami to get to that number because other evaluators see a risky, one-dimensional player here.
A reasonable expectation is Murakami can be an immediate home run threat with a solid walk rate but a low average and not much in the way of baserunning or defensive value — maybe Kyle Manzardo/Matt Wallner on the lower end, Spencer Torkelson as a medium comp and Brent Rooker as the hopeful outcome. The above projected contract might look weird for that set of comps, and there are a number of teams that wouldn’t go over $50 million for Murakami, but there are also not many mid-20s position players on the free agent market with a clear exceptional skill and no QO; these sorts of players demand a high price on the trade market if they’re even available. A comp that comes up is Joey Gallo, who most fans think was always a bad player, but he did post 4.4 WAR in his age-27 season, and next year will be Murakami’s age-26 season.
Remember Yoshinobu Yamamoto went for almost double of many of his pre-offseason contract projections with those same market factors also on his side, though he’s a starting pitcher. Murakami is hitting the market 3½ years younger than Masataka Yoshida was as a free agent with a similar amount of defensive and baserunning value, and Yoshida got $90 million from the Red Sox. I’m striking a bit of a balance with my projection, but I could see Murakami’s ultimate deal being around $50 million or well over $100 million (before posting fee), with the higher number more likely.
We can profile the sorts of teams that will be the most enthusiastic bidders. Teams with big payrolls that also highly value exit velo and age might see this gamble as an enticing one: The Yankees are one team that fits on both counts and the Cubs could fit as well. Chicago has Tucker hitting free agency along with Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki and Nico Hoerner entering walk years, while Matt Shaw, Moises Ballesteros, Owen Caissie, Kevin Alcantara and Jonathon Long are battling for long-term spots, so the Cubs could add Murakami to that group to get some time at the four corner spots and DH.
2025 team: Philadelphia Phillies
2026 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 4 years, $92 million ($23M AAV)
Suarez is fascinating: His fastball velocity has slipped from 93.4 mph to 92.0 to 91.2 over the past three seasons, but his ERA has gone from 4.18 to 3.46 to 3.20 and his WAR has gone from 2.4 to 3.4 to 4.0. Velocity obviously isn’t everything, but (potentially) betting nine figures and five years on Suarez’s future means teams would like to see key metrics either be steady or improving, not regressing.
A big difference in 2025 was Suarez leaned more into his changeup and cutter against righties and more into his slider against lefties (along with lowering his arm slot). Run values (every pitch has an outcome and each outcome has a value, so you just add them all up) tell us how that went: His changeup went from minus-2 runs for the season to plus-6, his cutter went from minus-6 to plus-2, and his slider went from being thrown twice all of 2024 to being a plus-1-run pitch in 2025.
Suarez’s command is measurably plus and he has two distinct mixes against righties and lefties, both headlined by his sinker, his one pitch that has clearly above-average movement traits on its own; the rest of his arsenal works due to the mix, locations and deception. A team that signs him would be betting that when his velo tails off more toward the end of the deal, his feel will still make him a solid fourth starter given these traits.
There are parallels here with Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez as medium-stuff lefty starters with good feel, bulk innings and postseason experience. They both landed multiyear deals with AAVs in the low 20s, but Suarez is younger than both and arguably had the best platform year, so four — or possibly five — years (and nine figures) seems reasonable.
2025 team: New York Yankees
2026 Opening Day age: 29
Projected contract: 4 years, $90 million ($22.5M AAV)*
After three straight years under the Mendoza line, Grisham stepped up in his walk year to hit .235, and he paired that with lots of walks (82) and lots of homers (34). He’s a fringy defender in center field who should transition to a corner outfield spot at some point during his next contract. Grisham’s combination of on-base and power skills compares well to Teoscar Hernandez’s case last winter, but Grisham offers a lot more defensive value and is hitting the market three years younger. Hernandez landed a three-year deal for $66 million with some deferrals, so I’d expect Grisham to get four years, or maybe five, at around $20 million AAV.
2025 team: Arizona Diamondbacks
2026 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 4 years, $76 million ($19M AAV)*
Gallen regressed a bit this year (4.83 ERA) after a sterling three-year run from 2022 to 2024 (cumulative 3.20 ERA, seventh-best pitcher WAR in baseball). There isn’t a clear explanation, but a lot of it can be chalked up to bad ball-in-play luck after he was largely lucky on balls in play from 2022 to 2024.
The biggest regression was with his curveball, while his slider and cutter also performed worse but his fastball and changeup performed better. I read that as a combination of location/sequence tweaking and positive regression can take Gallen back to the 2024 version of himself next season. That would mean an ERA in the high 3s and strong bulk innings, making him a valuable No. 3 starter for the next few years at least. Gallen is roughly 2½ years younger as he hits free agency than Sean Manaea, who landed a three-year deal for a partly deferred $75 million last winter. Gallen’s age, righty vs. lefty numbers and platform year ERA mostly balance each other out, so I see a three- or four-year deal for an AAV of $17-23 million.
2025 team: New York Mets
2026 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: 4 years, $60 million ($15M AAV)*
Diaz opted out of the remaining two years and $38 million on his deal with the Mets and looks poised to add one or two more years at a similar rate. His underlying numbers and peripherals have been consistent over his past two seasons — matching those of an elite reliever with a mid-2s ERA — but his ERAs have fluctuated, with an ERA of 3.52 in 2024 (driven by a spike in home run rate) but then 1.63 in 2025, despite similar components of his performance both years. This is likely a three- or four-year deal that should eclipse $50 million in total.
2025 team: San Diego Padres
2026 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 3 years, $57 million ($19M AAV)*
King missed about half of the 2025 season because of a nerve issue in his right shoulder and a knee injury. When he was on the mound, his pitch shapes were only slightly different from 2024, but the big difference was his four-seam fastball gave up way more damage than it did in 2024, going from a .402 slugging allowed to .814.
His sinker is his primary fastball and his four-seamer gives a different look than his crossfire, east-to-west-oriented stuff due to his low arm slot. Tweaking four-seam locations and usage seems like a solvable issue, but getting hit around more after an arm issue and his shorter track record as an elite starting pitcher cast some doubt on his long-term outlook. King’s unique angles and shapes will interest teams that excel at pitching development, as they tend to prize unique pitchers more than traditional clubs do. I think this will lead to a bifurcated market with some teams looking to get King on a one-year prove-it deal (maybe with an option attached) and other clubs willing to offer a multiyear deal (possibly for four years, too) that would be a discount compared with the contract expectations King might have had a year ago after posting 3.9 WAR in 2024.
2025 team: Detroit Tigers
2026 Opening Day age: 29
Projected contract: 3 years, $57 million ($19M AAV)*
I thought Torres would land a three-year deal last winter, but he didn’t find the multiyear offer he wanted, despite being 27 years old when he hit the market, due to his numbers ticking down across the board in 2024. Things ticked back up in 2025: His defensive and baserunning metrics were both a few runs better (though still below average), and his offensive numbers were up, although he still underperformed his underlying hitting statistics. I see him staying at second base for at least half of a three-year deal and hitting enough to be an everyday player at any position for the whole deal, so I think he lands that multiyear deal this winter. That said, he could accept the qualifying offer (a one-year, $22.02 million deal) if Detroit extends it to him.
2025 team: Seattle Mariners
2026 Opening Day age: 28
Projected contract: 3 years, $52.5 million ($17.5M AAV)
Naylor has some clear positives: He’s in his 20s for almost two more full seasons, he’s a solid average defender at first base, he has incredible baserunning instincts despite well below-average speed, and he’s a plus contact hitter. Those qualities give him a high floor and a solid two- to three-year outlook, but because he has roughly average raw power, chases out of the zone at a worse-than-average rate and is limited to first base, his ceiling is also limited. I would imagine he’ll get solid two-year offers or be forced to take a lower AAV on a three-year deal.
2025 team: Seattle Mariners
2026 Opening Day age: 34
Projected contract: 2 years, $45 million ($22.5M AAV)
Suarez has been an unsung but hugely productive slugger over the years: He’s sixth in baseball in home runs (261) since 2018, ahead of Juan Soto, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. He has played third base almost exclusively for the past three seasons, but his defensive metrics have regressed, going from plus-8 runs to plus-3 to minus-3 in that span. Even though he has been very productive, there’s a ceiling — both financially and in terms of WAR — when projecting a right-handed-hitting future first baseman who’s 34 years old. Suarez has posted 3.5 to 4.3 WAR each of the past four seasons, but the league sees regression coming and is paying only for the future; this projection leans into that.
2025 team: New York Yankees
2026 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: 3 years, $45 million ($15M AAV)
Williams had a wild spike in his ERA (4.79) in his one year in New York after a great run from 2020 to 2024 (1.70 ERA over 222 IP) in Milwaukee, in which his 7.6 WAR was second best among relievers in that span. His underlying numbers were slightly worse in 2025 — his xERA was 2.29 in 2020-2024 and 3.07 in 2025 — but nowhere near as bad as what his ERA would have you believe. His velocity was up a bit in the second half, and his strikeout rate also jumped from 31% to 39%, so there’s a case to be made that bad luck amplifies a slight regression from arguably the best reliever in the game to merely one of the best 10 to 15 in the league. Williams might see more value in a shorter-term deal or one with an opt-out to reset his market, but I think there will be three-year interest at a healthy AAV.
2025 team: Chicago Cubs
2026 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: 3 years, $43.5 million ($14.5M AAV)
Imanaga had a strong first season in MLB in 2024, posting a 2.91 ERA over 173⅓ innings with ERA estimators in the mid-3s. His 2025 season was much more uneven. His velo slipped a full tick to 90.8 mph, and his ERA estimators ballooned into the mid-4s as his ERA rose to 3.73. His strikeout rate fell and his homer rate spiked down the stretch — in his last dozen starts of the regular season, he gave up 20 home runs — and he was also hit hard in the playoffs. The Cubs declined their option to tack on an additional three years to his deal for $57 million, and then Imanaga declined his player option for $15 million. He should be getting two- and three-year offers at around $15 million AAV, but the demand for reliable innings with some upside makes me think there will be a three-year offer a notch or two behind what the Cubs turned down.
21. Kazuma Okamoto, 3B
2025 team: Yomiuri Giants (NPB)
2026 Opening Day age: 29
Projected contract: 3 years, $36 million ($12M AAV) + Posting Fee: $6.925 million
Like Murakami, Okamoto primarily played third base in NPB and likely moves to first base in short order in MLB. Unlike Murakami, Okamoto has played a lot of first base, so there will be less of a breaking-in period as he’s also getting used to big league pitching. Okamoto has a track record of strong on-base percentages in Japan, though some evaluators think he could be challenged by the higher velocity in MLB. He has plus raw power and an excellent feel for getting to it in games, giving him some ceiling if his contact rates in MLB are good enough. A right-handed-hitting (likely) first baseman who will turn 30 next June and has no big league experience is still a bit of a risk without a ton of ceiling, but Okamoto is a good bet to be a solid contributor, with a chance to be more if it all translates.
2025 team: Texas Rangers
2026 Opening Day age: 37
Projected contract: 2 years, $35 million ($17.5M AAV)
Kelly is one of the softest-tossing right-handed starters in baseball, averaging under 92 mph on his four-seamer, but he finds success due to his feel for a deep repertoire headlined by a changeup that’s his most-used pitch. He missed about half of 2024 due to a strained shoulder but has otherwise thrown 150 to 200 innings per season since 2021. Kelly just turned 37 and doesn’t have much margin for error to keep his ERA in the 3s, but he has the feel to eat up innings regardless of his raw stuff.
2025 team: Toronto Blue Jays
2026 Opening Day age: 37
Projected contract: 2 years, $34 million ($17M AAV)
Bassitt has been incredibly consistent since he became a full-time starter in 2019, throwing the seventh-most innings (1087⅓) and posting the 24th-best pitcher WAR (16.9) in that span. He’ll turn 37 in February, and his velocity slipped from 92.7 mph in 2024 to 91.4 in 2025, so he is likely limited to a one- or two-year deal. That said, his track record ensures he’ll land an AAV in the $15 million-plus area.
24. Lucas Giolito, SP
2025 team: Boston Red Sox
2026 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: 2 years, $32 million ($16M AAV)
Giolito declined his end of a $19 million mutual option (with a $1.5 million buyout) to hit the open market, but the Red Sox could still offer him the one-year, $22.025 million qualifying offer. Giolito missed the entire 2024 season because of elbow surgery but had a solid bounce-back showing in 2025, posting a 3.41 ERA in 145 innings. He profiles as a fourth starter whose strikeout rate dropped from 26% in 2023 to 20% in 2025. Giolito signed a two-year, $38.5 million deal before the 2024 season, and I think two years makes sense again, but at a slightly lower figure this time.
2025 team: Philadelphia Phillies
2026 Opening Day age: 35
Projected contract: 2 years, $32 million ($16M AAV)
Realmuto has regressed from the heights of his 6.7-WAR season in 2022, settling in as a roughly league-average offensive threat and a slightly negative defensive catcher, mostly due to his framing. That still adds up to an average everyday catcher, probably for another year or two, and the clear best catcher on the market this winter.
2025 team: Atlanta Braves
2026 Opening Day age: 35
Projected contract: 2 years, $30 million ($15M AAV)
Ozuna had a down year in 2025, is now hitting the market a week before he turns 35 years old and hasn’t played an inning in the field for two seasons. His regression (a .925 OPS in 2024 to a .756 OPS in 2025) overstates how much his underlying ability regressed, as his xwOBA suggests he was quite unlucky on ball-in-play outcomes. That said, this sort of player is the type that often falls off drastically around this age, so even after adjusting for that bad luck, his potential further regression in 2026 might result in teams projecting he’ll roughly repeat his surface numbers from 2025. Paul Goldschmidt was in a similar situation last winter and settled for a one-year deal at $12.5 million, but Ozuna’s case is a bit better, so he likely gets a one- or two-year deal at a bit more on the annual rate.
2025 team: Cincinnati Reds
2026 Opening Day age: 35
Projected contract: 2 years, $30 million ($15M AAV)
Martinez took the QO last winter — a one-year, $21.05 million deal — even when many thought he had a decent multiyear market, just probably not at that AAV. His peripherals regressed in 2025 — a lower strikeout rate, higher walk rate and higher home run rate — so he now falls into the bucket of a steady, veteran innings eater. That group comes with a high salary floor (tons of teams will pay eight figures a year due to the bulk innings) but also a ceiling; I can’t see him getting more than two years.
2025 team: New York Yankees
2026 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: 3 years, $30 million ($10M AAV)
Weaver came out of nowhere to transition from a mediocre starter to a dominating reliever in 2024. His fastball velocity slipped and his ERA jumped a bit in 2025, though his peripherals were pretty similar. I think Weaver’s market should be at two or three years and at roughly $10 million per year.
2025 team: San Diego Padres
2026 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: 2 years, $27 million ($13.5M AAV)
O’Hearn had a big year in 2025, with a .281 average, 17 homers and 3.0 WAR, all registering as career highs. He doesn’t have massive raw power, so he’s more of a steady on-base threat with some power that’s largely limited to first base and on the wrong side of 30 years old now. That boxes O’Hearn into a one- or two-year deal for a little over $10 million per year.
2025 team: New York Mets
2026 Opening Day age: 35
Projected contract: 3 years, $27 million ($9M AAV)
Rogers averages 83.5 mph on his fastball and has among the worst whiff rates in MLB, but he’s incredibly effective because of his location and the deception created by his submarine arm angle. Since 2021, he has the 29th-most reliever WAR in baseball and a 2.71 ERA over 378⅓ innings in that span, so this isn’t a fluke or small sample. Some of the sharpest teams prioritize having different looks (arm slots, movement profiles, etc.) in their bullpen, and Rogers offers arguably the most different look in the majors while having a skill set that seems more immune than most to losing effectiveness with age because velocity has nothing to do with his success.
2025 team: Seattle Mariners
2026 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: 2 years, $26 million ($13M AAV)
Polanco, defensively speaking, is somewhere on the second base/third base/first base/designated hitter spectrum. The switch hitter performed really well at the plate this year, ending up with near career bests in both strikeout rate and home runs. He doesn’t offer a ton outside of when he’s holding a bat in his hands, and he turns 33 years old next summer, so I think Polanco will be in the range of a two-year deal for over $10 million per year.
2025 team: Philadelphia Phillies
2026 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: 2 years, $25 million ($12.5M AAV)
Bader has been an above-average defensive center fielder for a long time and still is. The difference is he posted career bests at the plate in 2025, hitting .277 with 17 homers that contributed to a wRC+ of 122. There was a healthy amount of ball-in-play luck baked into that figure, so expect some regression back toward league average. I think there will be interest in a two-year deal with some risk that he might be a fourth outfielder in the second year of the deal.
2025 team: Milwaukee Brewers
2026 Opening Day age: 33
Projected contract: 2 years, $25 million ($12.5M AAV)
Woodruff declined his end of a $20 million mutual option (with a $10 million buyout) to hit the open market after he had a sterling return to the Brewers’ rotation on the heels of missing the 2024 season due to shoulder surgery. In 12 starts in 2025, Woodruff narrowly set career bests for strikeout and walk rate, along with xERA, though his velocity understandably slipped a few ticks to 93.0 mph on average, which is now below league average. Woodruff has a new pitch mix and approach: His fastball, cutter and sinker are three variations of a fastball with slightly different targets and movement profiles, and his changeup is his pitch to keep hitters honest. He throws those four pitches 95% of the time.
Shoulder surgery is less of a slam dunk to fully return from than elbow surgery, so durability will be a question, though Woodruff seems poised to be a standout performer in any role if he can stay healthy. If he passes the physical, he seems tailor-made to land with a big-market team that can afford to gamble that it’ll have a standout arm for parts of the season, but it isn’t likely he’ll post 150 innings in a season again. This could also easily be a one-year deal for a smaller guarantee and lots of incentives if teams aren’t optimistic about his long-term durability when they get more information about his shoulder.
2025 team: San Diego Padres
2026 Opening Day age: 35
Projected contract: 2 years, $25 million ($12.5M AAV)
Suarez opted out of the last two years of his deal for $16 million, and I think he’ll do a bit better than that on the open market. He burst onto the domestic scene in 2022 after a stint in NPB and became one of the better relievers in the sport, but his strikeout rate regressed heavily the next year and ticked up only a bit in 2024 and 2025. He’s probably limited to a two-year deal given his age and the mixed signals his peripherals have sent the past few seasons, but I think he’ll post a low-to-mid-3s ERA the next few seasons (or at least peripherals that should equate to that). Having experience in the postseason and in the ninth inning also helps his case.
2025 team: Chicago Cubs
2026 Opening Day age: 28
Projected contract: 2 years, $23 million ($11.5M AAV)
Soroka was a starter for most of his career until he settled in the bullpen for the White Sox in 2024 and caught fire late in the season. The Nats signed him for 2025 on a one-year deal for $9 million to convert him back to a starter, which he was until he was traded to the Cubs at this year’s deadline and went back to the pen. Soroka missed time with a shoulder issue in 2025, throwing only 89⅔ innings with a 4.52 ERA. There are still some qualities here that I think teams will want to gamble on as a starter even though Soroka has topped 90 innings only once in his career. Since he’s still in his 20s, I could see Soroka choosing to take another shot at a one-year deal to prove he can throw 150 innings and potentially get a big deal next winter.
2025 team: Chicago Cubs
2026 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 2 years, $22 million ($11M AAV)
From 2021 to 2022, Keller was tracking like a starting pitcher who could get an eight-figure deal as a reliable innings eater when he hit free agency, but injuries and ineffectiveness limited him to 27 big league appearances across 2023 and 2024 as he posted a combined minus-0.6 WAR. He looked to be mired in minor league deals for the next few years, but then, out of nowhere, he posted a dominant 2025 season as a setup man for the Cubs, helped by a spike in velocity. The sample size is just one season, and he’s already 30 years old, but he’ll get offered multiyear deals. I can’t even rule out a three-year deal.
2025 team: Cincinnati Reds
2026 Opening Day age: 34
Projected contract: 2 years, $22 million ($11M AAV)
Pagan’s fastball velocity spiked last season from 94.6 to 95.8 mph, and that helped both his fastball and splitter (his two most-used pitches) be much more effective. He gives up a lot of flyballs, which makes him susceptible to home run problems, but also collects whiffs and popups in the interim. There should be plenty of multiyear interest, despite his age.
2025 team: Detroit Tigers
2026 Opening Day age: 34
Projected contract: 2 years, $21 million ($10.5M AAV)
In 2024, Finnegan was fourth in baseball in four-seam fastball usage at 68%, which usually means a pitcher has a dominating, unique offering. But Finnegan didn’t — he was just late to the modern trend of throwing his fastball less often. He slightly reduced that usage to 66% with Washington last year, then he was traded to the Tigers at the deadline and dropped his fastball usage dramatically: down to 41% with all of that usage going to his splitter, which spiked to 55% usage. Finnegan’s strikeout rate went from 20% before the trade (over 39 innings) to 35% after it (over 18 innings); sometimes baseball can be that simple. It’s a short track record to base a multiyear deal on, but I wouldn’t be shocked if there’s a team that wants to be even more aggressive than I’m projecting here.
2025 team: Tampa Bay Rays
2026 Opening Day age: 33
Projected contract: 2 years, $20 million ($10M AAV)
Houser had a good 2025 in large part because mechanical tweaks helped the velocity of his sinker go from 92.5 mph in 2024 to 94.4 in 2025. He profiles as a fourth starter, and those are in enough demand to land him a two-year deal.
2025 team: Texas Rangers
2026 Opening Day age: 33
Projected contract: 2 years, $20 million ($10M AAV)
Maton is somewhat unusual among elite relievers: He’s throwing a cutter or slower, sweepier curveball 74% of the time and doing it with a big extension from a lower arm slot. He’s a journeyman with a career ERA of 3.98, but his 2025 ERA was 2.79 and it wasn’t fluky, he just seemed to figure out how to tunnel, sequence and locate his stuff. Teams like to stockpile relievers with unique qualities, so I think Maton will get two-year offers, but I can’t rule out a three-year deal.
2025 team: Hanwha Eagles (KBO)
2026 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: 2 years, $18 million ($9M AAV)
Ponce was a second-round pick by the Brewers from Cal Poly Pomona in 2015 and made his big league debut in 2020 with the Pirates. His combination of stuff and command played at Triple-A but not the big leagues, so Ponce headed to Japan and Korea, where he played the past four seasons, and seemed to figure something out in 2025. His strikeout rate spiked to 36%, a career high by a lot, and he also threw by far the most innings of his career at 180⅔ while showing above-average control with a 6% walk rate.
Ponce’s fastball is 94-97, touching 99 mph, with an 88-to-92 mph cutter, 80-to-82 mph curveball and 86-to-89 mph changeup as his main pitches. They all grade as average to above average, and his locations/tunneling combos seem similar to those of other successful starters. He should find success in MLB with this approach. The contract comparison is Erick Fedde’s two-year, $15 million deal for the 2024 season after coming back from the KBO at basically the same age with quite similar numbers and stuff as Ponce. However, I think Ponce will beat that number by a bit.
2025 team: Atlanta Braves
2026 Opening Day age: 36
Projected contract: 2 years, $18 million ($9M AAV)
Iglesias’s numbers regressed a bit in 2025, and his velocity dipped 1 mph, but he’s still a steady late-inning performer who’s probably now just going to have an ERA that starts with a three instead of a one or two. His extensive ninth-inning experience is a nice bonus, and he likely won’t demand a third year due to his age, so he makes a lot of sense as a setup man for a contending club.
2025 team: Cincinnati Reds
2026 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 2 years, $18 million ($9M AAV)
Littell is an odd pitcher to evaluate. His two most-used pitches are a cutter and splitter, and they were his worst-performing pitches by run value last year. As you might have guessed from that, Littell succeeds with excellent control, every sort of deception you can think of and durability. He’s younger than most free agents with that kind of profile, so I assume he can land a two-year deal, but he’s the kind of pitcher who plays a smaller role in the playoffs than the regular season.
2025 team: San Diego Padres
2026 Opening Day age: 28
Projected contract: 2 years, $17 million ($8.5M AAV)
Arraez draws different views on his value because he’s arguably the best pure hitter in the league but might not even be average at another relevant skill. Hitting is really important, though! Some teams see him as a role player or insurance policy, but given the postseason success of the Jays (tied to their high contact rate), some teams might see Arraez as a tone-setter who needs to be in the lineup every day. I think there will be some two-year interest, but Arraez getting a string of one-year deals wouldn’t surprise me.
2025 team: Boston Red Sox
2026 Opening Day age: 34
Projected contract: 2 years, $17 million ($8.5M AAV)
Matz has transitioned to a full-time reliever now after being a primary starter as recently as 2023. His bread-and-butter pitch is a mid-90s sinker and he keeps hitters honest with a curveball and changeup. The nature of his sinker is to induce weak contact rather than whiffs, and his history as a starter means he can go multiple innings, so he’s more valuable than a quick glance at his surface stats would suggest. Demand for reliable bullpen lefties tells me there’s a multiyear deal to be had here.
2025 team: Atlanta Braves
2026 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 1 year, $16 million
Kim declined his $16 million player option after a rough season that was his worst in the big leagues, playing 48 games for Tampa Bay and Atlanta after labrum surgery on his shoulder. He regressed at everything, but he also missed time for back injuries and his shoulder wasn’t back to its pre-surgery arm strength, either. The 2025 season was basically a lost one for Kim, and optimistic evaluators will need to see it as an on-ramp to becoming some facsimile of his pre-shoulder injury self. I can see him becoming a 2-win type of player as soon as next season, but that requires some level of imagination. I could see a two-year deal, but a one-year prove-it deal for roughly the terms of his player option feels right.
2025 team: Seattle Mariners
2026 Opening Day age: 29
Projected contract: 2 years, $15 million ($7.5M AAV)
Ferguson is quite similar to Matz, just less famous and without history as a big league starter. He’s also five years younger, so it wouldn’t shock me if Ferguson actually ended up getting a bigger guarantee or even a third guaranteed year. Continuing to move away from his four-seam fastball and embracing his sinker, cutter and curveball would make him even more similar to Matz and could help his numbers a bit, too.
2025 team: Toronto Blue Jays
2026 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: 2 years, $15 million ($7.5M AAV)
You probably watched Dominguez pitch recently — you had plenty of chances with his 12 postseason appearances for Toronto. In many of those outings, and plenty in the regular season, you had to hold your breath, but he has been beating his ERA estimators for years now. His sweeper (mostly used vs. right-handed hitters) and splitter (mostly used vs. lefties) have emerged as Dominguez’s most effective pitches, and his upper-90s fastball and sinker function to keep hitters honest (and occasionally get hit hard or yield a walk). I think a two-year deal makes the most sense here given his high-wire style of pitching.
2025 team: Chicago Cubs
2026 Opening Day age: 28
Projected contract: 2 years, $14 million ($7M AAV)
Castro’s defensive metrics regressed in 2025 to minus-9 runs across second base, shortstop and third base after he posted a plus-4 across those three positions in 2024. The difference was mostly his lateral range — but, oddly, his defensive numbers in the outfield got a little bit better in 2025. Either way, Castro is a switch-hitting utility player who’s young for a free agent and has been a give-or-take average offensive threat for three years now. He’s probably not a starter for a contender, but he could be insurance for a contender or a starter for a second-division team.
2025 team: San Francisco Giants
2026 Opening Day age: 43
Projected contract: 1 years, $13 million
It’s worth noting that Max Scherzer would be the next right-handed starter behind Verlander, but look at the list below of other free agents of note — there might be 15 more behind Scherzer who could fit in a rotation next year, so smart teams looking for length will separate themselves by whom they pluck out of that group. Verlander signed a one-year, $15 million deal with the Giants last year, and they got what they paid for: He was even a bit better in 2025 than 2024 by some measures. I assume he’ll get a little less this year, though he could also get the same contract again.
Others of note
C: Danny Jansen, Christian Vazquez, Gary Sanchez, Victor Caratini, James McCann, Luke Maile, Mitch Garver, Elias Diaz, Tom Murphy, Martin Maldonado, Sandy Leon
1B/DH: Paul Goldschmidt, Rhys Hoskins, Josh Bell, Ty France, Lewin Diaz (KBO), Baek Ho Kang (KBO), Rowdy Tellez, Carlos Santana, Dominic Smith, Jesse Winker
2B: Luis Rengifo, Dylan Moore, Enrique Hernandez, Chris Taylor, Adam Frazier, Brendan Rodgers, Kyle Farmer, Michael Stefanic, Donovan Solano, Tyler Wade
SS: Amed Rosario, Miguel Rojas, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Jorge Mateo, Paul DeJong, Jose Iglesias, Orlando Arcia, Wilmer Flores, Coco Montes, Jon Berti
3B: Yoan Moncada, Sung-moon Song (KBO), Justin Turner
OF: Mike Yastrzemski, Max Kepler, Rob Refsnyder, Cedric Mullins, Lane Thomas, Michael Conforto, Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen, Randal Grichuk, Miguel Andujar, Tommy Pham, Ryan Ward, Austin Slater, Michael A. Taylor, Dustin Harris, Daz Cameron, Billy McKinney
RHS: Max Scherzer, Ryan Weiss (KBO), Jo-Hsi Hsu (CPBL), Charlie Morton, Griffin Canning, Tyler Mahle, Dustin May, Chris Paddack, Zach Eflin, Jon Duplantier (NPB), Tomoyuki Sugano, Michael Lorenzen, Miles Mikolas, German Marquez, Jon Gray, Alex Cobb, Walker Buehler, Kyle Hendricks, Drew Anderson (KBO), Aaron Civale, James Naile (KBO), Paul Blackburn, Erick Fedde, Andre Jackson (NPB), Kona Takahashi (NPB), Hiroto Saiki (NPB), Chris Flexen
LHS: Tyler Anderson, Anthony Kay (NPB), Foster Griffin (NPB), Patrick Corbin, Martin Perez, Jose Quintana, Jordan Montgomery, Alec Gamboa (KBO), Zach Logue (KBO), Andrew Heaney, Kyle Hart, Wade Miley, Nestor Cortes, Connor Thomas
RHR: Ryan Helsley, Shawn Armstrong, Hunter Harvey, Kirby Yates, David Robertson, Jose Leclerc, Kenley Jansen, Paul Sewald, Jakob Junis, Chris Martin, Luis A. Garcia, Shelby Miller, Jordan Romano, Tommy Kahnle, Michael Kopech, Ryan Brasier, Derek Law, Ryne Stanek, Anthony DeSclafani, Craig Kimbrel, Hunter Strickland, Luke Jackson, Scott Barlow, Jonathan Loaisiga, Sho Iwasaki (NPB), Drew Smith, Connor Seabold, Elvin Rodriguez, Alexis Diaz, Carl Edwards, Chris Devenski, Jose Urena, Liam Hendriks, Lou Trivino, Rafael Montero, Ryan Pressly, Takahiro Norimoto (NPB), Miguel Castro, Anthony Maldonado, Scott McGough
LHR: Gregory Soto, Sean Newcomb, Caleb Thielbar, Jose Alvarado, Justin Wilson, Jalen Beeks, Ryan Yarbrough, Drew Pomeranz, Taylor Rogers, Danny Coulombe, Hoby Milner, Tim Mayza, Tyler Alexander, Andrew Chafin, Ryan Borucki, Genesis Cabrera, Ben Bowden
Sports
MLB Awards Week predictions, results: Kurtz, Baldwin named Rookies of the Year
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4 hours agoon
November 11, 2025By
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Bradford DoolittleNov 10, 2025, 08:00 PM ET
Close- MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Been with ESPN since 2013
The hot stove season is already burning, but even amid the roster shuffling for the 2026 season, we have one last bit of 2025 business: handing out the major awards.
The most prestigious are the four major honors determined by BBWAA voting. These awards will have a lasting impact on baseball history books and Hall of Fame résumés.
On Monday, Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz was unanimously selected as the American League Rookie of the Year, and Atlanta Braves rookie catcher Drake Baldwin earned the National League honor.
Here is the remaining schedule (awards are announced starting at 7 ET each night on MLB Network):
Tuesday: Managers of the Year
Wednesday: Cy Young Awards
Thursday: MVP Awards
MLB will also hold its annual awards show in Las Vegas on Thursday, during which it will recognize its All-MLB squads, the Hank Aaron Awards for each league’s best offensive performer, the Comeback Player of the Year Awards, the Mariano Rivera/Trevor Hoffman Awards for the top relievers, and the Edgar Martinez Awards for best designated hitters. The Executive of the Year Award will also be announced.
I’ll be reacting to each night’s awards announcement throughout the week, but in the meantime, here are some opening comments and some brief reaction to the honors that have been awarded.
Below, we list the three finalists in each of the big-four categories, with what you need to know before the results are announced and my picks to take home the hardware. We’ll update each section with news and analysis as the winners are revealed.
Jump to:
MVP: AL | NL
Cy Young: AL | NL
Rookie of the Year: AL | NL
Manager of the Year: AL | NL

American League Rookie of the Year
Winner: Nick Kurtz, Athletics (unanimous)
Final tally: Nick Kurtz 210 (30 first-place votes), Jacob Wilson 107, Roman Anthony 72, Noah Cameron 54, Colson Montgomery 23, Carlos Narvaez 21, Jack Leiter 6, Will Warren 5, Luke Keaschall 3, Braydon Fisher 2, Shane Smith 2, Cam Smith 2, Chandler Simpson 1, Luis Morales 1, Jasson Dominguez 1
Doolittle’s pick: Kurtz
Takeaway: Before the season, Kurtz’s name wasn’t near the top of the list for AL Rookie of the Year candidates. He didn’t lack hype — he was viewed by many as the Athletics’ top prospect — but his meteoric rise was unexpected.
Kurtz, the fourth pick in 2024, played just 12 minor league games and another 13 in last year’s Arizona Fall League before this season. So, it made sense that he began the season in Triple-A, where he posted a 1.000-plus OPS, which he has done every step of the way.
Kurtz debuted in the majors April 23, and 117 games later, his 1.002 rookie-season OPS ranks as the fifth best for a rookie (minimum 480 plate appearances) behind Aaron Judge, Ted Williams, Albert Pujols and Ryan Braun. But none of those greats matched Kurtz’s accomplishment against the Houston Astros on July 25, when he hit four homers, finished with six hits and tied Shawn Green’s big league record for total bases in a game (19).
The ninth Rookie of the Year in Athletics history, Kurtz’s slash line (.290/.383/.619) at 22 is evidence that he’s the complete package at the plate and still might improve. But even if he doesn’t, and this is what he is going forward, he’s one of the best hitters in the majors.
The other two finalists — Roman Anthony and Jacob Wilson — were both high on preseason lists for the award and validated that anticipation with fine rookie seasons. Wilson’s .311 average ranked third in the majors. He was one of seven qualifying hitters in the majors to hit at least .300. Anthony lived up to massive hype upon his arrival at Fenway Park, but he suffered an oblique injury Sept. 2, ending his chances of overtaking Kurtz for the award.
Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:
1. Nick Kurtz, Athletics (126 AXE)
2. Jacob Wilson, Athletics (118)
3. (tie) Roman Anthony, Boston Red Sox (115)
Noah Cameron, Kansas City Royals (115)
Colson Montgomery, Chicago White Sox (115)
6. Carlos Narvaez, Boston Red Sox (110)
7. Shane Smith, Chicago White Sox (109)
Note: AXE is an index that creates a consensus rating from the leading value metrics (WAR, from FanGraphs and Baseball Reference) and contextual metrics (win probability added and championship probability added, both from Baseball Reference), with 100 representing the MLB average.
ROY must-reads:
Passan Awards: Nick Kurtz wins ‘Individual Performance of the Year’
How a swing tweak has Red Sox rookie Roman Anthony rolling
National League Rookie of the Year
Winner: Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves
Final tally: Drake Baldwin 183 (21 first-place votes), Cade Horton 139 (9), Caleb Durbin 69, Isaac Collins 62, Daylen Lile 17, Agustin Ramirez 10, Chad Patrick 9, Jakob Marsee 8, Jack Dreyer 4, Matt Shaw 4, Jacob Misiorowski 2, Nolan McLean 2, Heriberto Hernandez 1
Doolittle’s pick: Baldwin
Takeaway: In the end, the voters favored Baldwin’s full-season prowess over Horton’s remarkable second half. It was a tough call but Baldwin established himself as one of the game’s outstanding young catchers. Baldwin hit .274/.341/.469 over 124 games, numbers strong enough to earn him regular DH time on days he wasn’t catching. That’s key, because Atlanta still has veteran Sean Murphy on the books for three more years.
Like his AL counterpart Kurtz, Baldwin was considered his organization’s top prospect by many when the season began, but his timeline seemed more aimed at a late-2025/2026 debut than what happened, which was a right-now Rookie of the Year campaign. His big break came when Murphy went down with a cracked rib in spring training. The Braves had several journeyman backups in camp, but Baldwin was so impressive that he started behind the plate when Atlanta began its season in San Diego.
Baldwin is the first catcher to win NL Rookie of the Year honors since Buster Posey in 2010. The only other Braves catcher to win the award was Earl Williams (1971), though Williams divided his time between catching and the infield corners.
If Cade Horton had put together two halves like his post-All-Star-break performance, he might have been a unanimous pick and even a Cy Young frontrunner. Over 12 second-half starts, Horton went 8-1 with a 1.03 ERA, allowing just 33 hits while striking out 54 over 61 1/3 innings. He allowed one run or fewer in 11 of those outings. Horton did all of this for a Chicago Cubs team scrambling to make the postseason with a short-handed rotation. This shows up in the probability stats: Horton ranked 12th among all NL pitchers in win probability added and 13th in championship probability added.
As for Caleb Durbin, he was a vital cog in the Milwaukee Brewers‘ run to a franchise-best win total. He was also one of a gaggle of rookies in Milwaukee that not only played well, but were key contributors to the Brewers’ run to the NLCS. If “Brewers rookie” was an option on the ballot, “Brewers rookie” should have won.
Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:
1. Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves (115)
2. Caleb Durbin, Milwaukee Brewers (113)
3. Cade Horton, Chicago Cubs (112)
4. Isaac Collins, Milwaukee Brewers (111)
5. Chad Patrick, Milwaukee Brewers (110)
6. Jakob Marsee, Miami Marlins (109)
7. Braxton Ashcraft, Pittsburgh Pirates (108)

American League MVP
Finalists:
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners
Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians
My pick: Raleigh
What to know: We’re going to dive deep into the riveting race between Judge and Raleigh later this week. According to my AXE rating, which is an index that expresses the consensus of the leading bottom-line metrics, the winner is Judge (164 to 150) and it’s not particularly close.
Despite the easy statistical case for Judge, I see this as a case in which the narrative and intangible elements overwhelm the metrics. And that’s not to undersell Raleigh’s metrics, which are more than MVP-worthy. But despite another historic season from Judge, I’m going with Raleigh.
Again, we’ll get into the nitty-gritty of the numbers later, but the soft factors that swing my thinking are these: Raleigh’s 60-homer season is the stuff of science fiction when viewed through the lens of what’s expected from every-day catchers. It not only shattered the single-season mark for the position, but it broke Mickey Mantle’s record for homers by a switch-hitter. Mickey freaking Mantle. And Raleigh’s a (darn good) catcher!
Raleigh did all of this as the defensive anchor and clubhouse leader on a division champion. There aren’t many seasons when I’d pick someone as MVP over the 2025 version of Aaron Judge, but this is one of them. Sure, I’m a stat guy, so this feels like a departure from that foundation, but sometimes a narrative is just too compelling to ignore.
Finally, poor Jose Ramirez. This is Ramirez’s sixth time landing in the AL’s top five in MVP balloting, and eighth time in the top 10. But he’s not going to win. Ramirez just keeps churning out the same great season every year. It’s just that there has always been someone a little greater each season.
That being said: Kansas City’s Bobby Witt Jr. should have been the third finalist. He’ll be back.
MVP must-reads:
What it’s really like facing Aaron Judge
Can Yankees build a title-winning team around Aaron Judge?
‘It’s something that’s never been done’: Inside Cal Raleigh’s road to HR history
Why the Mariners are built to last after a crushing ALCS loss
National League MVP
Finalists:
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies
Juan Soto, New York Mets
My pick: Ohtani
What to know: Together, the three NL MVP finalists logged 63% of their starts at designated hitter. Most of the non-DH starts came from Soto, whose defensive metrics continue to suggest a future of increased DH time. Still, the days of DHs being locked out of the MVP chase are clearly over.
Ohtani was the first exclusive DH to win an MVP last year, though he’d won it before while serving as an every-day DH in addition to pitching. He logged 1.1 bWAR this season for his 47 innings on the mound, which could have proved to be a tiebreaker if he and the other finalists were close. But it’s Ohtani all the way.
As hitters, all three used up a similar number of outs as Ohtani, who had at least a 20-run advantage in runs created over both. Shockingly, it was Soto who had the best baserunning numbers, thanks to his 38-steal breakout and Ohtani deemphasizing that part of his game. But Ohtani provided easily the most defensive value with his pitching, while Soto’s defense was a negative and Schwarber was almost exclusively a DH.
Basically, everything Schwarber and Soto did, Ohtani did better — and he pitched well. Even Schwarber’s league-leading RBI count (132) is trumped by Ohtani’s decided edge in WPA, a category in which he led the league. It’s Ohtani’s award, again, and it will be No. 4 for him. Only Barry Bonds has won more.
Not for nothing, you know which position player posted the highest bWAR total? That would be a nonfinalist: Arizona’s Geraldo Perdomo (7.0 bWAR), though he did finish behind Ohtani when the latter’s pitching bWAR is added.
MVP must-reads:
2025 MLB most exciting player bracket: Ohtani, Judge, more
The improbability of Shohei Ohtani’s greatness
Schwarber, All-Star swing-off captures the beauty of baseball
Inside Juan Soto’s wild first Mets season
Juan Soto, the showman, finally showing up for Mets

American League Cy Young
Finalists:
Hunter Brown, Houston Astros
Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
My pick: Skubal
Skubal is well positioned to become the AL’s first repeat Cy Young winner since Pedro Martinez in 2000. He might just be getting started. The dominant lefty didn’t repeat as a pitching Triple Crown winner, but he posted a lower ERA (2.21 to 2.39) and struck out more batters (241 to 228) than he did while winning the Cy Young Award in 2024. For the second straight year, he led the AL in pitching bWAR, FIP and ERA+.
That’s a tough résumé for Crochet to top, but he came pretty close, leading the AL in innings (205⅓) and strikeouts (255) and beating Skubal in wins (18 to 13). Skubal was a little more consistent in terms of average game score (64.2 to 62.6). Skubal really didn’t rout Crochet in any key area, but he beat him just the same in most columns.
Brown is a worthy No. 3, but for him, it’s the same story: He hung with the big two in most areas but didn’t top them. Still, it was another season of improvement for Brown, whose ERA over the past three seasons has gone from 5.09 to 3.49 to 2.43.
Cy Young must-reads:
The extraordinary mystery of the Tigers’ Tarik Skubal
National League Cy Young
Finalists:
Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies
Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers
My pick: Sanchez
My AXE system wasn’t particularly emphatic about the No. 3 pitcher in the NL Cy Young column, so Yamamoto is as good a pick there as any. We start with him because his dominant postseason run is fresh in our minds. But that doesn’t factor in here. Maybe it should, but it doesn’t. In any event, I’d have gone with Milwaukee’s Freddy Peralta as my No. 3.
Regardless of the third finalist, during the regular season, Skenes and Sanchez gradually separated themselves from the pack, especially after Sanchez’s teammate Zack Wheeler was injured. They are the easy top two but picking between them isn’t that easy.
Sanchez has the edge in volume — 202 innings to 187⅔, in part because the Pirates eased up on Skenes toward the end. Indeed, failure to do so would have been malpractice. Despite that, Skenes struck out more batters (216 to 212), posted a better ERA (1.97 to 2.50) and led the league in ERA+, WHIP and FIP. The extra 14⅓ innings allowed Sanchez a narrow win in bWAR (8.0 to 7.7).
In the end, their runs saved against average is a virtual dead heat: 53 for Sanchez against 52 for Skenes. Thus for me it comes down to context. Sanchez put up his season for a division champ, Skenes for a cellar dweller. That is not Skenes’ fault, but we’ve got to separate these pitchers somehow. Sanchez’s season was worth 3.2% championship probability added against Skenes’ 0.5%. That’s the clincher for me.
But I think Skenes will win the vote.
Cy Young must-reads:
How young aces Skenes, Skubal dominate

American League Manager of the Year
Finalists:
John Schneider, Toronto Blue Jays
Stephen Vogt, Cleveland Guardians
Dan Wilson, Seattle Mariners
My pick: Schneider
Schneider’s style of game management generates a lot of critiques. But he still guided a team from last place to an AL East title and a World Series appearance, though the voters wouldn’t have known about that last part. He also oversaw a makeover of the team’s offensive approach that led to one of baseball’s most prolific attacks. And if you want to assign the credit for the improvement of the hitters to coach David Popkins, fine. But who hired him?
Manager of the Year must-reads:
The magic chemistry of the Blue Jays clubhouse
National League Manager of the Year
Finalists:
Terry Franconca, Cincinnati Reds
Pat Murphy, Milwaukee Brewers
Rob Thompson, Philadelphia Phillies
My pick: Murphy
This would make Murphy 2-for-2 in winning the award as a full-time big league manager, a position he didn’t ascend to until age 65. (I’m discounting his 96-game interim stint for San Diego in 2015.)
Yes, the Brewers repeated as a playoff team, but this was still a squad that entered the season with low expectations after the roster was shuffled into an even younger version. Rather than this being a transition season, the Brewers were one of baseball’s most exciting units. They won close games, won with rookies and won with a relatively low payroll. And they had a tremendous clubhouse culture.
It’s a combination of factors that should enable Murphy to repeat, especially because the voters didn’t know Milwaukee would eventually be flattened by the Dodgers in the NLCS.
Manager of the Year must-reads:
Welcome to ‘Milwaukee Community College’: How the Brewers built a $115 million juggernaut
Why Terry Francona, Bruce Bochy came back to managing in MLB

Other awards
Just a run-through of my picks, leaving aside the Comeback Player category, which is tough to attack analytically:
Executive of the Year: Matt Arnold, Milwaukee Brewers. I have a metric I use to track organizational performance. It looks at things such as the performance of acquired players, organizational records and the value produced by rookies. Arnold’s club topped the charts. Arnold won this award last year, so we’ll find out if there is an Arnold fatigue at work here. If Arnold doesn’t win, I’d lean toward Seattle’s Jerry Dipoto.
All-MLB: My All-MVP first team, courtesy of AXE:
1B: Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves
2B: Nico Hoerner, Chicago Cubs
SS: Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals
3B: Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians
C: Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners
OF: Juan Soto, New York Mets
OF: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
OF: Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
DH: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
LHP: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
RHP: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
RP: Aroldis Chapman, Boston Red Sox
Hank Aaron Award: Aaron Judge (AL, New York Yankees); Shohei Ohtani (NL, Los Angeles Dodgers)
Mariano Rivera Award: Aroldis Chapman, Boston Red Sox
Trevor Hoffman Award: Edwin Diaz, New York Mets
Gold Gloves: The winners have been announced and can be found here. My quibbles: I would have gone with Toronto’s Alejandro Kirk at AL catcher over Detroit’s Dillon Dingler. On the NL side, I’d have liked to find a spot for Washington’s Jacob Young, but the insistence on LF/CF/RF distinctions ruled that out. All in all, another pretty solid job in an awards category that used to be rife with absurdities.
Sports
Ortiz bail set at $500K in pitch-rigging case
Published
5 hours agoon
November 11, 2025By
admin
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Associated Press
Nov 10, 2025, 04:10 PM ET
BOSTON — Cleveland Guardians pitcher Luis Ortiz appeared in federal court Monday on charges accusing him and teammate Emmanuel Clase of taking bribes to help associates in their native Dominican Republic win prop bets placed on pitches they threw.
U.S. Magistrate Judge Donald Cabell in Boston granted Ortiz his release but with several conditions, including that he surrender his passport, restrict his travel to the Northeast and post a $500,000 bail, $50,000 of it secured. He also was ordered to avoid contact with anyone who could be viewed as a victim, a witness or a co-defendant in the case.
Ortiz, dressed in a pale green track suit, did not say anything in court. His lawyers declined to speak to reporters after the brief hearing.
According to the indictment against the two unsealed Sunday, Ortiz and Clase took several thousand dollars in payoffs to help two unnamed gamblers in their home country win at least $460,000 on bets placed on the speed and outcome of certain pitches, including some that landed in the dirt.
Clase, who was the Guardians’ closer, and Ortiz, a starter, have been on non-disciplinary paid leave since July, when MLB started investigating what it said was unusually high in-game betting activity when the two pitched. Some of the games in question were in April, May and June.
Ortiz, 26, was arrested Sunday by the FBI at Boston Logan International Airport. Clase, 27, is believed to be outside the U.S., according to a law enforcement official familiar with the matter. The official was not authorized to speak publicly about the case and did so on condition of anonymity.
Ortiz and Clase “betrayed America’s pastime,” U.S. Attorney Joseph Nocella Jr. said Sunday. “Integrity, honesty and fair play are part of the DNA of professional sports. When corruption infiltrates the sport, it brings disgrace not only to the participants but damages the public trust in an institution that is vital and dear to all of us.”
Ortiz’s lawyer, Chris Georgalis, said in a statement Sunday that his client is innocent and “has never, and would never, improperly influence a game — not for anyone and not for anything.”
Georgalis said Ortiz’s defense team previously documented for prosecutors that the payments and money transfers between him and individuals in the Dominican Republic were for legal activities.
MLB said it contacted federal law enforcement when it began investigating unusual betting activity and has fully cooperated with authorities. “We are aware of the indictment and today’s arrest, and our investigation is ongoing,” the league said in a statement.
In a statement, the Guardians said: “We are aware of the recent law enforcement action. We will continue to fully cooperate with both law enforcement and Major League Baseball as their investigations continue.”
Clase and Ortiz are each charged with wire fraud conspiracy, honest services wire fraud conspiracy, money laundering conspiracy and conspiracy to influence sporting contests by bribery. The top charges carry a potential punishment of up to 20 years in prison.
In one example cited in the indictment, Clase allegedly invited a bettor to a game against the Boston Red Sox in April and spoke with him by phone just before taking the mound. Four minutes later, the indictment said, the bettor and his associates won $11,000 on a wager that Clase would toss a certain pitch slower than 97.95 mph.
Clase, a three-time All-Star and two-time American League Reliever of the Year, had a $4.5 million salary in 2025, the fourth season of a $20 million, five-year contract. The three-time AL saves leader began providing the bettors with information about his pitches in 2023 but didn’t ask for payoffs until this year, prosecutors said.
Prosecutors said Ortiz, who had a $782,600 salary this year, got in on the scheme in June and is accused of rigging pitches in games against the Seattle Mariners and the St. Louis Cardinals.
The charges are the latest bombshell developments in a federal crackdown on betting in professional sports.
Last month, more than 30 people, including prominent basketball figures such as Portland Trail Blazers coach and Basketball Hall of Famer Chauncey Billups and Miami Heat guard Terry Rozier, were arrested in a gambling sweep that rocked the NBA.
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