Passan: Surrounded by October chaos, the Astros find a way
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Jeff Passan, ESPN
MINNEAPOLIS — In this October of chaos, of 100-win teams swept and a winless American League East and lower-seed dominance, there is but one constant. The Houston Astros are doing what the Houston Astros do, which is to say they are owning the most important month on the baseball calendar.
In this time when there is bellyaching about the game’s playoff format, in which the best teams sit for a week while the laggards fight for their season in the wild-card round, there is the outlier. The Astros illustrated that a bye does not necessarily equal bye-bye.
In this moment of profound questions across the sport, about strategy and analytics and the challenges of building a team to succeed in the playoffs like it does over a 162-game season, there is the team that for seven straight years has found itself in the American League Championship Series. The Astros were once upon a time the most analytically inclined organization in baseball. Even as in recent years they’ve receded from that, they still just win.
Baseball is on one. Up is down and right is left and sliders are sweepers and nobody can quite put together what’s going on. The 84-win Arizona Diamondbacks are in the National League Championship Series after dismantling the Los Angeles Dodgers, who finished 16 games ahead of them in the NL West. The 104-win Atlanta Braves are on the precipice of getting beat after their shortstop loud-talked Bryce Harper in the clubhouse, a reporter printed the ill-advised chirping and Harper had the vengeance game to end all vengeance games that staked his Philadelphia Phillies, who finished 14 games behind Atlanta in the NL East, a chance to finish off their series on Thursday.
All of that came a day after the 101-win Baltimore Orioles saw their season end at the hands of the buzz saw that is the Texas Rangers. After gagging away the AL West crown in the final week of the season, Texas proceeded to sweep the Tampa Bay Rays in the wild-card round then bushwhack the Orioles to set up one whale of an ALCS.
Never have the Rangers and Astros played in the postseason, and for all of the upsets thus far — if Philadelphia closes out Atlanta, the lower seed will have prevailed in five of eight series — to be gifted this sort of ALCS speaks to the drama that exists when chalk goes to dust.
It’s the Battle of Texas, the Silver Boot Series gone prime time.
It’s a pair of fearsome offenses that will make 27 outs painful for opposing pitchers.
It might even be Justin Verlander vs. Max Scherzer.
A little more than two months ago, the two wizened aces were New York Mets teammates. The Mets’ deadline reckoning sent Verlander back to Houston and Scherzer off to Texas. And while a shoulder strain has shut down Scherzer for the past month, he could return and bring even more verve to a series teeming with it.
That’s the thing about this October. It doesn’t have the New York Mets. Or the New York Yankees. Or the Boston Red Sox. Or the Chicago Cubs. Or the San Diego Padres. Or the San Francisco Giants. Or the Los Angeles Angels. Even the juggernauts who did make it are falling on their faces. Should Philadelphia beat Atlanta, the win totals of the final four teams will be 90, 90, 90 and 84.
That’s baseball. For all those who care to complain about how winning a division doesn’t mean anything anymore, understand this: Every single team — every single team — would rather have a week off after the season to rest and reset its rotation than play a best-of-three series against another quality team with its season on the line.
Teams aren’t losing because they had a week off.
They’re losing because the MLB postseason is a tournament with three-, five- and seven-game series, in which getting hot at the right time matters far more than what a team has done over a six-month grind.
It’s what makes the Astros’ run all the more impressive. For seven years — one short of Atlanta’s record eight straight championship series appearances — the Astros have managed to win at least one playoff series. And as dissatisfying as that might be for those who harbor resentment against the organization for its cheating in 2017, anyone who refuses to acknowledge the Astros’ exceptional staying power is just willfully ignorant.
Only three players, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Verlander, remain from the 2017 team. The Astros have added the magnificent Yordan Álvarez, who might be the scariest hitter in the world, and Kyle Tucker, a perennial standout. They’ve brought in Michael Brantley, the epitome of a professional, and supplemented him with Jose Abreu, and both, now 36 years old, homered in their series-clinching triumph on Wednesday at Target Field, where the Astros took both games from the Minnesota Twins. Houston has developed Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier and Jeremy Peña and Chas McCormick and Jose Urquidy, who hadn’t pitched in 12 days and locked down the Twins to secure the Game 4 victory.
The conversations in sports always change, and today it’s going to be about Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman going 1-for-21; and the Diamondbacks, with the fewest home runs in the regular season of any remaining playoff team, becoming the first ever to hit four in one postseason inning; and whether Spencer Strider can weather Citizens Bank Park and send the Braves home for a Game 5.
The Astros will hover above it all, readying for Sunday, when they will host Game 1 of the ALCS for the fourth time in five years. It will be the latest step toward the ultimate do-what-they-do goal: becoming baseball’s first back-to-back World Series champions since the Yankees won three in a row from 1998 to 2000.
It might be the most normal thing to happen yet.
It’s 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby day in Atlanta!
Some of the most dynamic home run hitters in baseball will be taking aim at the Truist Park stands on Monday (8 p.m. ET on ESPN) in one of the most anticipated events of the summer.
While the prospect of a back-to-back champion is out of the picture — 2024 winner Teoscar Hernandez is not a part of this year’s field — a number of exciting stars will be taking the field, including Atlanta’s own Matt Olson, who replaced Ronald Acuna Jr. just three days before the event. Will Olson make a run in front of his home crowd? Will Cal Raleigh show off the power that led to 38 home runs in the first half? Or will one of the younger participants take the title?
We have your one-stop shop for everything Derby related, from predictions to live updates once we get underway to analysis and takeaways at the night’s end.
MLB Home Run Derby field
Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (38 home runs in 2025)
James Wood, Washington Nationals (24)
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays (23)
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (21)
Brent Rooker, Athletics (20)
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (17)
Jazz Chisholm Jr., New York Yankees (17)
Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates (16)
Live updates
Who is going to win the Derby and who will be the runner-up?
Jeff Passan: Raleigh. His swing is perfect for the Derby: He leads MLB this season in both pull percentage and fly ball percentage, so it’s not as if he needs to recalibrate it to succeed. He has also become a prolific hitter from the right side this season — 16 home runs in 102 at-bats — and his ability to switch between right- and left-handed pitching offers a potential advantage. No switch-hitter (or catcher for that matter) has won a Home Run Derby. The Big Dumper is primed to be the first, beating Buxton in the finals.
Alden Gonzalez: Cruz. He might be wildly inconsistent at this point in his career, but he is perfect for the Derby — young enough to possess the stamina required for a taxing event that could become exhausting in the Atlanta heat; left-handed, in a ballpark where the ball carries out better to right field; and, most importantly, capable of hitting balls at incomprehensible velocities. Raleigh will put on a good show from both sides of the plate but will come in second.
Buster Olney: Olson. He is effectively pinch-hitting for Acuna, and because he received word in the past 72 hours of his participation, he hasn’t had the practice rounds that the other competitors have been going through. But he’s the only person in this group who has done the Derby before, which means he has experienced the accelerated pace, adrenaline and push of the crowd.
His pitcher, Eddie Perez, knows something about performing in a full stadium in Atlanta. And, as Olson acknowledged in a conversation Sunday, the park generally favors left-handed hitters because of the larger distances that right-handed hitters must cover in left field.
Jesse Rogers: Olson. Home-field advantage will mean something this year as hitting in 90-plus degree heat and humidity will be an extra challenge in Atlanta. Olson understands that and can pace himself accordingly. Plus, he was a late addition. He has got nothing to lose. He’ll outlast the young bucks in the field. And I’m not putting Raleigh any lower than second — his first half screams that he’ll be in the finals against Olson.
Jorge Castillo: Wood. His mammoth power isn’t disputed — he can jack baseballs to all fields. But the slight defect in his power package is that he doesn’t hit the ball in the air nearly as often as a typical slugger. Wood ranks 126th out of 155 qualified hitters across the majors in fly ball percentage. And he still has swatted 24 home runs this season. So, in an event where he’s going to do everything he can to lift baseballs, hitting fly balls won’t be an issue, and Wood is going to show off that gigantic power en route to a victory over Cruz in the finals.
Who will hit the longest home run of the night — and how far?
Passan: Cruz hits the ball harder than anyone in baseball history. He’s the choice here, at 493 feet.
Gonzalez: If you exclude the Coors Field version, there have been just six Statcast-era Derby home runs that have traveled 497-plus feet. They were compiled by two men: Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. James Wood — all 6-foot-7, 234 pounds of him — will become the third.
Olney: James Wood has the easy Stanton- and Judge-type power, and he will clear the Chophouse with the longest homer. Let’s say 497 feet.
Rogers: Hopefully he doesn’t injure himself doing it, but Buxton will break out his massive strength and crush a ball at least 505 feet. I don’t see him advancing far in the event, but for one swing, he’ll own the night.
Castillo: Cruz hits baseballs hard and far. He’ll crush a few bombs, and one will reach an even 500 feet.
Who is the one slugger fans will know much better after the Derby?
Passan: Buxton capped his first half with a cycle on Saturday, and he’ll carry that into the Derby, where he will remind the world why he was baseball’s No. 1 prospect in 2015. Buxton’s talent has never been in question, just his health. And with his body feeling right, he has the opportunity to put on a show fans won’t soon forget.
Olney: Caminero isn’t a big name and wasn’t a high-end prospect like Wood was earlier in his career. Just 3½ years ago, Caminero was dealt to the Rays by the Cleveland Guardians in a relatively minor November trade for pitcher Tobias Myers. But since then, he has refined his ability to cover inside pitches and is blossoming this year into a player with ridiculous power. He won’t win the Derby, but he’ll open some eyes.
What’s the one moment we’ll all be talking about long after this Derby ends?
Gonzalez: The incredible distances and velocities that will be reached, particularly by Wood, Cruz, Caminero, Raleigh and Buxton. The hot, humid weather at Truist Park will only aid the mind-blowing power that will be on display Monday night.
Rogers: The exhaustion on the hitter’s faces, swinging for home run after home run in the heat and humidity of Hot-lanta!
Castillo: Cruz’s 500-foot blast and a bunch of other lasers he hits in the first two rounds before running out of gas in the finals.
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