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  • David Hale, ESPN Staff WriterOct 22, 2023, 02:07 AM ET

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    • ACC reporter.
    • Joined ESPN in 2012.
    • Graduate of the University of Delaware.

There’s a perception among many college football fans that great teams always look — well, great. They win, they win big, and they make it all look pretty easy.

That’s rarely how it works.

Most years, a trip to the College Football Playoff is as much about sustaining and surviving as it is dominating, and even for the best of teams, there’s a game or two along the way that’s just one long, brutal slog.

Saturday had its share of slogs for playoff hopefuls. Ohio State took every punch it saw from Penn State, but refused to stay down. Florida State withstood Duke‘s defense just long enough to break open the dam. Alabama and Tennessee traded blows. Texas coughed up a big lead but held on late. Oregon fell behind early, but made a statement down the stretch. Washington nursed its hangover from last week’s win over Oregon well into the second half against Arizona State, but rallied late — or, at least, waited long enough to see the Sun Devils implode — and remained undefeated.

None came easy, but do you know what they call the guy who graduates last in his class from medical school? They call him doctor. And an ugly win is still a win.

On the other side, USC‘s defense stood tall, then fell short. Penn State’s best hopes fizzled at the mercy of a superstar receiver. And Virginia, a team that’s endured more than any other program in the country, outlasted undefeated North Carolina for one of the most stunning upsets of the season.

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Sione Vaki snatches ankles on way to Utah TD

Sione Vaki snatches ankles on way to Utah TD

Winning is always so much sweeter than a near miss.

So those victory cigars in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, must’ve tasted like some Dreamland ribs. Joe Milton‘s TD pass before the half gave the Volunteers a seemingly momentous 20-7 lead, but Jalen Milroe and the Tide dominated the second half, capped by a 24-yard scoop-and-score TD to put the game away in a 34-20 win.

There have been so many points in which we were perilously close to writing off Alabama’s season and, perhaps, the Nick Saban dynasty. The loss to Texas, the ugliness against USF, the fight to the end against Arkansas, and then Saturday’s battle against the Vols — this is but a shadow of the teams that won games by simply getting off the bus. And yet there’s something entirely rewarding about seeing Alabama scratch and claw and still come out on top. Saban somehow gets to be the elephant in the room and the scrappy underdog all at once. It might be his greatest trick.

The asterisks Duke fans might want to put on the loss to FSU must’ve looked like fireworks to the Seminoles. They trailed into the fourth quarter, but after Duke QB Riley Leonard left following a flare-up of his ankle injury, it was all Seminoles. FSU posted the game’s final 21 points, as Jordan Travis kept the Noles’ undefeated season alive. To watch a Florida State game this year is to endure so many plays that feel like they should’ve been something more, and yet to look back at this 7-0 start, each game has ended with 30 points or more, and each with a victory. It’s a team that feels like it’s yet to hit its potential, and still always finds another gear when it matters most.

Nothing came easily for Oklahoma against UCF. The Sooners missed two early field goals and fell behind 23-17 entering the fourth quarter. Dillon Gabriel rode to the rescue, but UCF still had a chance to tie when it ran a trick play on a two-point try that was blown up in the backfield. The lackluster outing might’ve been enough to dampen some spirits in Norman, but then again, the Sooners are 7-0 and Lincoln Riley has two losses. Life is good.

The Huskies coughed up much of the good will they earned last week against the Ducks, looking entirely lost against woeful Arizona State. Washington turned the ball over four times, but ASU managed only seven points off the takeaways. Michael Penix Jr. played like he was still at Indiana, air mailing one throw after another and looking entirely lost, but he was bailed out by a 90-yard pick six from Mishael Powell. The Huskies ultimately prevailed 15-7, their first win without an offensive touchdown in 22 years. If they’re lucky, anyone who stayed up to watch will wake up Sunday assuming they dreamed the whole thing.

Utah went into its battle with USC using its safety at tailback and, possibly, three kids standing on each other’s shoulders and wearing a trench coat at QB, and it didn’t matter. That safety — Sione Vaki — rushed for 68 yards and caught five passes for 149 yards and two scores, and even after the Trojans battled back from down 14 to take a late lead, the Utes kept fighting. Bryson Barnes‘ 26-yard scramble set up the winning field goal. The win keeps Utah’s playoff hopes alive, despite playing the entire season without Cam Rising, who coach Kyle Whittingham announced would not return for 2023, while reigning Heisman winner Caleb Williams and USC are all but finished.

And if Saturday was all about survival, it was an awful setting for North Carolina. The Tar Heels have now played six games as a top-10 team in the past quarter-century, and they’ve lost five of them.

UNC was a 24.5-point favorite over 1-5 Virginia, fresh off its most impressive win of the season. Drake Maye threw for 347 yards. Tez Walker was a superstar once again. Omarion Hampton ran for 112 yards. It all added up to another devastating loss for UNC, which has consistently earned its reputation as a paper tiger.

Instead, it was Virginia that stood tall Saturday. The Cavaliers hadn’t won an ACC game in nearly a year, and the program had never felled a top-10 team in its long history. Instead, Mike Hollins, who was shot 343 days ago in an act of violence that took the lives of three of his teammates, scored three touchdowns in the 31-27 win. It was a remarkable testament to the willingness to keep fighting, to persevere against all odds, and to deliver something that transcends the standings.

It was fitting that Virginia earned the day’s sweetest win because nothing about the Cavaliers’ long road toward normalcy has been easy.

That’s one of the great lessons of a college football Saturday like this one. Get hit, get back up, keep fighting, and in the end, no one will remember the missteps along the way. They’ll just celebrate the moment it all felt right.

Sometimes all you need is a Marvin Harrison Jr.

Saturday’s showdown between No. 3 Ohio State and No. 7 Penn State was supposed to unveil the blueprints for how the rest of 2023 might unfold at the highest levels of college football power, to deliver a verdict on the Big Ten’s power structure, to assert proof that at least one of these teams can win it all, to affirm a narrative for Ryan Day or James Franklin … to be, in short, as meaningful a game as will be played during the regular season.

Instead, what we can take from Saturday is something we already knew: wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. might be the best player in the country.

Ohio State took the win Saturday, 20-12 over Penn State in a game that was at turns frustrating and physical, ugly and sublime. The Buckeyes are 7-0 with two wins over elite competition. The defense, which marred so much of the Buckeyes’ recent history, was an unmovable force. Day has his team poised, once more, to contend for the biggest of prizes, if only it can also escape its biggest of rivals six weeks from now.

And yet, this was hardly a ringing endorsement of Ohio State’s potential. Quarterback Kyle McCord was wildly inconsistent. The ground game was all but invisible. With WR Emeka Egbuka sidelined, there was a limited supply of real weapons for the Buckeyes. But there was Harrison, who, according to ESPN Stats & Information, had more receiving yards than the rest of the team combined and more yards after the catch than Ohio State’s ground game managed with the ball in its hands.

Franklin took the L against another blue blood. He’s 0-10 on the road against top-10 opponents now, which somehow is still not as bad as Penn State was on third down Saturday. But it was hardly a game that illustrated some weakness of coaching or talent or scheme — though there were certainly questions in each area for Penn State. The difference was that Ohio State had Harrison; the Nittany Lions did not.

It was the type of game that Lou Holtz didn’t think Ohio State could win a month ago, and now seems like it might be the only kind of game Ohio State wins.

It was a game with offenses that looked so similar to Michigan State‘s misery that the Michigan Wolverines immediately sent in a team of retired Navy SEALS to infiltrate next week’s practices.

It was the type of game during which Penn State fans had to be wildly screaming for the offense to take a shot, any shot, downfield only to ultimately sink back into their couches, clutching an 8-by-10 photo of Sean Clifford and wondering where things went so wrong.

It was a bulldozer driving into a brick wall, over and over, except for the 11 times the ball found its way into Harrison’s hands. Eleven touches, despite every man, woman and child in the stadium knowing he was the only player on the field who could turn this game. Eleven touches despite Penn State’s defense checking him, pressing him, bumping him, holding him, pushing him down and taking his lunch money. Eleven touches, all of them immensely important, and yet it was a potential 12th that changed the entire tenor of the game, when Penn State was flagged for holding Harrison on a play that might have — should have, if you ask a Penn State fan — been a scoop-and-score for the lead.

If Ohio State’s game plan was as simple as getting the ball to Harrison, Penn State’s was an abject mess — as if Jackson Pollock designed the offensive philosophy.

Witness the Lions’ first-quarter drive, when Nick Singleton ran directly into an overaggressive Ohio State pass rush on back-to-back plays, picking up 16 and 20 yards. What happens next? Drew Allar takes a straight dropback, that aggressive Ohio State pass rush is immediately in the backfield, and the drive stalls.

Witness the Lions’ second-quarter drive, when Allar found something approaching success in the passing game, connecting on consecutive throws to tight ends for gains of 11 and 34. What happens next? A double reverse that the Buckeyes sniffed out like the Wolverines had faxed them Penn State’s playbook before the game.

Witness the Lions … ah, no, there were no more Penn State offensive drives worth mentioning. In the end, Penn State was held without a touchdown for the first time in nearly a decade.

Ohio State, meanwhile, turned to Harrison, who is a superstar. For the second straight year, it turned to JT Tuimoloau down the stretch, and the defensive lineman utterly demoralized what little was left of Penn State’s offense. And the Buckeyes won.

So now the season comes down to the Michigan game once more. Of course it does. It always does.

And so for all the answers this game was supposed to offer, it left in question the one that looms largest in Columbus. Is this Ohio State team capable of beating the Wolverines?

The good news is, this team has Marvin Harrison Jr.

Games of inches

Fans in Houston and Pittsburgh will be spending the next week huddled around footage of their teams’ final drives, dissecting each frame like it’s the Zapruder film after officials robbed both of a chance to win by calling seemingly obvious first downs short of the line to gain.

In Houston, the Cougars came up inches short after Stacy Sneed‘s forward progress seemed to easily pick up a first down at the Texas 9 with 1:57 to play but the run was ruled short nevertheless. Donovan Smith‘s pass on fourth-and-1 fell incomplete, and Houston’s upset bid fell short, 31-24.

It might be a good time to check social media for all the Texas Longhorns fans who were absolutely certain Big 12 refs would be out to get them in their final year in the conference. Instead, the call was a blow to Dana Holgorsen, who was already heartbroken to find out Quinn Ewers had cut his mullet.

Pitt looked to have secured a 17-14 win at Wake Forest when QB Christian Veilleux scrambled to convert a third-and-9 — only the official didn’t see it that way. Instead, Veilleux was ruled down a yard-and-a-half shy of the first, which is where the official said he began his slide.

The great irony here is the slide rule is in place because former Pitt QB Kenny Pickett faked a slide against — you guessed it! — Wake Forest in the 2021 ACC championship game.

Without the first down, Pitt punted, Wake got the ball with a short field, and third-string QB Santino Marucci engineered a six-play TD drive that took just 33 seconds to give the Deacons a 21-17 win.

Pitt fans will now join Miami — which lost two weeks ago after a questionable ruling of a fumble when it could’ve simply run out the clock — at the weekly ACC officiating support group meetings. Coffee’s free, but it’s Pat Narduzzi’s turn to bring doughnuts.

Bad, worse and whatever Arkansas is doing

Wake Forest and Virginia Tech played last week, but it was Week 8 that offered the best opportunities to break out the Frank Beamer meme. Even beyond Ohio State and Penn State’s top-10 rock fight that … um, highlighted? … the day, it was an ugly afternoon for offenses.

It’s common fodder for service academy showdowns to include painfully little offense, but Air Force offered the promise of a surprisingly new narrative when Dane Kinamon broke free for a 94-yard touchdown catch just 12 seconds into the second quarter.

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Dane Kinamon breaks free for 94-yard Air Force TD grab

Dane Kinamon gets behind Navy’s defense and goes the distance for a 94-yard Air Force touchdown.

Unfortunately, that’s the last offense anyone chose to play. Navy finished with 122 total yards. The two teams were 4-of-30 on third down. Several wide receivers fell asleep at midfield. Air Force won 17-6 thanks to a late pick-six. To recap, a game that came with the second-lowest Vegas point total on record for a Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy contest included a 94-yard TD and a pick-six and still went under.

In Arkansas, offensive coordinator Dan Enos has been walking around for weeks humming the opening stanza to “Sound of Silence” and dreaming up new ways to turn KJ Jefferson into George Jefferson.

Jefferson fumbled twice and threw a pick in Arkansas’ 7-3 loss to Mississippi State on Saturday. Impressively, he managed to complete 19 passes for just 97 yards. Kindergarten games of hot potato involve more downfield throwing than that. Mississippi State at least had the excuse of missing starting QB Will Rogers, who technically missed the game due to injury but would’ve been well within his rights to simply take Saturday off to go see the new Scorsese movie instead.

At ECU, the Pirates’ offense is ridden with scurvy. ECU threw 32 passes and managed just 88 yards through the air in Saturday’s 10-7 loss to a nearly-as-inept Charlotte team. We genuinely wonder if 49ers coach Biff Poggi cuts the arms off his sweatshirts or if he gets mad while watching film of his offense and then shreds his clothes like the Incredible Hulk.

In Iowa, all of that is considered the second-best appetizer for a Hawkeyes game (after the preferred pregame meal of an 86-ounce steak and a quarter keg of whole milk).

And those Hawkeyes didn’t disappoint. Which is to say, they were incredibly disappointing.

The game total closed at 30.5, which is also the number of beers you’d need to consume to enjoy the offense in this one, which Minnesota won 12-10. The two QBs combined to complete 20 of 48 throws. The lone touchdown came on a 1-yard run that completed a 46-yard drive. There were 18 punts, and Hawkeyes offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz’s only regret was that there weren’t more. Iowa chose to punt on fourth-and-10 at its own 41 with 2:06 to play, which made sense because each snap on offense for Iowa represented Minnesota’s best chance to score. The Hawkeyes got a stop and forced another punt — and might have scored on a return, if not for Cooper DeJean waving for a fair catch (or perhaps he was just signaling to AD Beth Goetz not to count these points toward Ferentz’s total). And then Iowa quickly threw a game-ending interception because, of course it did.

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Iowa’s go-ahead TD wiped off after fair catch call

Cooper DeJean returns punt for a 54-yard Iowa touchdown to grab the lead, but it is taken off the board after DeJean appeared to motion for a fair catch.

The final numbers: Iowa had 127 yards of total offense. It averaged 0.4 yards per rush, which translated into inches is a little more than 14 per carry. A toddler could have fallen over 28 times and performed better. For the season, Iowa has 2,656 punt yards and 1,859 yards of offense.

And somewhere in Des Moines, a clandestine group of Iowa power brokers, clad in hooded robes and huddled around a sprawling oak table beneath a portrait of Hayden Fry, solemnly announces in unison: This is the way.

Coach Dabo Swinney turned some heads this week when he suggested his fan base might be weighed down a bit by folks who didn’t appreciate what it took to win, and he suggested perhaps a loss or two might thin the herd.

Well, he got his wish Saturday, and now the Clemson bandwagon might be just Swinney at the driver’s seat, pounding Mike and Ikes and listening to the “Shrek 2” soundtrack on cassette, because everyone else sees a bus slowly lurching toward a cliff.

Clemson lost to Miami 28-20 in double overtime. Miami played without starting QB Tyler Van Dyke, and it won despite a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit. The Canes’ QB, Emory Williams, had just 15 career attempts to his name, and still Clemson allowed Miami to rush for 211 yards — a total just three other teams had managed against the Tigers since 2017. The turnover woes that Swinney has largely chalked up to bad luck again doomed the Tigers, who coughed up two fumbles and an INT. The new offensive coordinator, Garrett Riley, was supposed to offer salvation for a Clemson attack that had gotten stale in recent years, but for the second time this season, a goal-line playcall left QB Cade Klubnik without an answer when it mattered most.

Clemson is now 4-3, effectively finished in the hunt for the ACC, and will need to win out to keep a streak of 12 straight 10-win seasons alive. After each of the three losses — one a fluky defeat to Duke and two in overtime — Swinney found myriad reasonable explanations. Just as it was in 2022, this Clemson team is but a few plays shy of playoff contention. And yet, the Tigers seem further away now than ever, and the most frustrating part — for those still on the bandwagon and those who’ve kindly evacuated — is there doesn’t seem to be any clear path back onto the freeway.

Week 8 checkdowns

Oklahoma State got 282 yards and four touchdowns on the ground from Ollie Gordon to beat West Virginia 48-34. The Pokes are now 5-2 on the season despite no one actually witnessing them hold a lead in any game this season. Gordon has now run for at least 121 yards in four straight games, the longest streak in the Big 12 since Deuce Vaughn had seven straight from Week 10 of 2021 through Week 2 of 2022.

Wisconsin scored 18 in the fourth quarter to erase a two-TD deficit and beat Illinois 25-21. The Badgers won with backup QB Braedyn Locke, who tossed two touchdowns. Braelon Allen had 145 yards and a score, too. Braedyn. Braelon. Uma. Oprah. (Note: If you’re old enough to get that joke, it’s time to take your cholesterol medicine.)

USF erased a 21-10 fourth-quarter deficit on the strength of 260 rushing yards to knock off UConn 24-21. The good news for UConn fans, however, is the NCAA was going to keep the Huskies out of the playoff anyway. You just can’t fight the system.

Missouri moved to 7-1 behind Cody Schrader‘s 159 rushing yards and two touchdowns, dumping South Carolina 34-12. Afterward, Shane Beamer punched the mascot, set his office on fire and interrupted a local magic show to saw a woman in half.

Memphis used a dominant second half and two TD passes from Seth Henigan to thwart the UAB Blazers 45-21 and retain the Battle of the Bones Trophy.

Afterward, the Tigers returned to Memphis, slathered the trophy in a nice dry rub, then left it to simmer on the smoker for the next 10 to 12 hours.

New Mexico beat Hawai’i 42-21 on Saturday for its first Mountain West win in nearly two calendar years. The Lobos’ last conference victory came Oct. 23, 2021, against Wyoming. Saturday was just the program’s sixth Mountain West win in the past seven seasons.

Heisman Five

The QBs have largely dominated the Heisman talk so far this year, but Week 8 marks the point the race opened up to everyone else.

1. Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

At this point, Harrison has proved so impactful despite a lack of consistent production around him that we’re fairly certain he could team up with the brass section from Ohio State’s band, a handful of sixth graders and three guys he found sleeping at the bus station and still win the Big Ten West.

2. Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel

Gabriel took on his former team, UCF, on Saturday and had to sweat out a 31-29 win. Hard to blame Gabriel for the Sooners’ struggles, though. Gabriel threw for three touchdowns, including on each of Oklahoma’s final two competitive drives. Even better, he still flubbed just enough plays to ensure Brent Venables can yell at everyone on Sunday. Best of both worlds.

3. Florida State QB Jordan Travis

Duke’s defense makes nothing easy for opposing QBs, and Travis’ usual contingent of downfield targets simply wasn’t open often Saturday. Still, he completed 27 of 36 throws and tossed two touchdowns, to go with another 62 yards and a score on the ground. Travis has now had multiple TDs in 14 straight games — the longest active streak in the country and the third-longest of the playoff era in the ACC. The two players with longer streaks — Trevor Lawrence (17) and Kenny Pickett (16) — both were Heisman finalists.

4. Washington QB Michael Penix Jr.

It’s entirely possible that Penix had tickets to a show Saturday night, and so he sent a lookalike to play for him assuming anyone could beat Arizona State. That is a more likely explanation for Penix’s performance than suggesting he just stunk. Still, two picks, a lost fumble, and a ridiculous amount of awful throws weren’t enough to sink Washington, and it’s not quite enough to knock him out of our rankings.

5. Oklahoma State RB Ollie Gordon II

There are not a lot of successful Ollie’s out there. The guy who invented the “ollie” in skateboarding. Oliver North for a few months there in the ’80s. Something about liberated oxen. So it’s fair to say that Gordon may already be the most famous Ollie in history, which isn’t enough to warrant Heisman consideration on its own, but paired with his 7 yards-per-carry average and 996 scrimmage yards, it certainly puts him in the conversation.

Wild Stalions

The biggest story leading into Week 8 was the allegation that Michigan was surreptitiously stealing signs and has been since at least 2021. But for all the attention the story got, it’s worth recapping the key details: A low-level staffer with a military background has emerged as a person of interest in the NCAA investigation into Michigan’s alleged sign-stealing operation, sources told ESPN on Thursday.

His name is Connor Stalions.

Let that sink in. If Jim Harbaugh had hired a ninja named Brock Espionage as the team’s director of [REDACTED], it wouldn’t have been any funnier.

The operation, which was described by a source as “elaborate,” has given Michigan all the insider info it’s needed to beat teams like Bowling Green, Rutgers, Nebraska and Indiana. Those wins can’t just be luck.

Still, we have to assume that at some point last week, Stalions was marched into Harbaugh’s office, where the furious Michigan coach was hunched over his desk, eyes bulging, face red.

Harbaugh: “Dammit Stalions, give me one good reason I shouldn’t have your employee badge and khakis right now!”

Stalions, coolly: “Because, sir … I get results.”

And he’s right! Without Stalions’ alleged advance scouting, surely Michigan wouldn’t have escaped rival Michigan State 49-0. It would’ve been more like 49-3. And instead of throwing for four touchdowns, J.J. McCarthy might’ve thrown for three and rushed for one. And certainly there’s no chance the Spartans would’ve been held to just 190 yards of offense. We have every confidence that, in an honestly played contest, Michigan State gets to at least 200 on a garbage-time scramble on fourth-and-26.

Meanwhile, in a bunker buried deep beneath the Big House, Harbaugh and his staff gather around a table surrounded by monitors showing the all-22 from Buckeyes games. A cacophony of frustration erupts among coaches.

Suddenly, a shadowy figure who looks strangely like James Franklin enters and hands Harbaugh a sealed envelope. Harbaugh opens the letter and slides out a single sheet of paper. It reads: “Marvin Harrison Jr. is really good.”

Under-the-radar game of the week

Like everyone in Las Vegas, UNLV likes to live dangerously.

The Rebels moved to 6-1 on the season (and 3-0 in the Mountain West) thanks to a 25-23 win over Colorado State that saw four lead changes in the second half of the fourth quarter alone.

Colorado State led 13-3 at the half. UNLV stormed back to take a 19-13 lead with 7:36 left in the fourth. Then the fireworks began.

Colorado State scored on a 20-yard TD to take a 20-19 lead.

UNLV booted a 46-yard field goal to go back up 22-20.

Colorado State drove into Rebels territory and kicked a field goal, taking a 23-22 lead with 44 seconds to play.

UNLV took over at its own 34 with 40 seconds to play and no timeouts, but QB Jayden Maiava completed balls for 5, 4, 21 and 20 yards to get within field goal range, and Jose Pizano drilled a 28-yarder with 3 seconds to play to secure the win.

Colorado State has now blown an eight-point lead and lost in double OT to Colorado, erased a 30-10 fourth-quarter deficit against Boise State to win 31-30, and traded leads with UNLV throughout the fourth quarter Saturday.

Usually in Las Vegas, that kind of heart-skipping drama comes with a few free drinks.

Under-the-radar play(s) of the week

Boston College and Georgia Tech defensive backs named A(h)mari took turns one-upping each other for sheer athleticism in Atlanta on Saturday.

First, BC’s Amari Jackson grabbed a one-handed pick like he was nabbing a fly out of the air with chopsticks, then returned it 30 yards for a touchdown.

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BC CB makes jaw-dropping, one-handed pick-six

Boston College’s Amari Jackson picks off Haynes King and returns it for a touchdown.

Not to be outdone, Georgia Tech’s Ahmari Harvey elevated like Michael Jordan, hung in midair like he was in “The Matrix” and pulled down an interception in the end zone, too. Three plays later, Yellow Jackets QB Haynes King scored on a 71-yard run.

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Ahmari Harvey elevates to pick off Boston College in the end zone

Ahmari Harvey intercepts Thomas Castellanos deep pass in the end zone to give Georgia Tech the ball back.

After that, however, the defenses didn’t do quite so much, as BC’s Kye Robichaux ran for 165 yards, added 54 more receiving and scored twice in the Eagles’ 38-23 win.

Out of their Rut

In 2021, Rutgers proved that the best ability was availability by sliding into a bowl game after Texas A&M opted out of playing, despite its 5-7 regular-season record.

Aside from bowling by default, however, it’d been a bit of a dry spell for the Scarlet Knights, who hadn’t won six games in a year since 2014.

Welcome back to the big time — or, at least, slightly better than mediocrity — Rutgers!

Gavin Wimsatt ran for 143 yards and three touchdowns Saturday as Rutgers thumped Indiana 31-14, getting win No. 6 on the season to secure a bowl bid. It’s the program’s eighth bowl season in 15 years with Greg Schiano at the helm. In its other 94 years of existence, it’s made exactly four bowl games.

It’s probably fair to note that no one Rutgers has beaten so far has a winning record. And, it’s perhaps worth mentioning that the next four games on the docket — Ohio State, at Iowa, at Penn State, Maryland — are all against schools that currently do have a winning record.

So go ahead and book those flights to Detroit. The Quick Lane Bowl awaits, and it’ll be — well, it’ll be cold. But you’re from New Jersey. You’ll be fine.

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The anticipated archvillains for every top 25 college football team

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The anticipated archvillains for every top 25 college football team

You know it as soon as the college football schedule drops. The game that’s circled, the player you love to hate, the rival coach who seems to especially delight in destroying your team’s season.

We’re getting into the dog days of summer, with the only relief being the crisp autumn days of the college football season are rapidly approaching. But that means the enemies are lining up at the gates.

Today, we’re doing recon on where each post-spring top 25 team stands and who stands in their way. These are each teams’ potential future villains, the coaches, players and teams that have the chance to make the whole season go south. — Dave Wilson

1. Penn State: Ryan Day

Penn State coach James Franklin and the Nittany Lions have been unable to get over the hump against Ohio State, especially since Day took over in Columbus. The Nittany Lions have dropped six straight to Day, culminating with last year’s defeat, as fourth-ranked Ohio State rallied to topple the third-ranked Nittany Lions in State College 20-13. This season, Day will have a new starting quarterback and inexperience on both sides of the ball coming off last year’s national championship. Penn State will counter with one of the most experienced teams in the country, headlined by veteran quarterback Drew Allar and running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Franklin even hired away Day’s defensive coordinator, Jim Knowles. The Nittany Lions travel to Columbus on Nov. 1 in a showdown that figures to carry major playoff implications. — Jake Trotter

Clemson’s arch enemy for this season is obvious: Sellers. The Tigers watched the South Carolina quarterback dodge defenders, break tackles and keep one play after another alive last season in a stunning Gamecocks win that nearly derailed Clemson’s season. Clemson will be looking for revenge, of course, but new defensive coordinator Tom Allen will be more focused on finding answers for the elusive Sellers. There are lofty expectations at Clemson this season, and the Tigers don’t necessarily need a win over South Carolina to achieve them, but nobody will sleep soundly in the state if the 2025 defense coughs up another win to its biggest rival. — David Hale

3. Texas: Oklahoma

In Week 1, the Longhorns get a rubber match against an Ohio State team that eliminated Texas from the playoff last season, but the results of this game leave a lot of runway for either team to get back into this year’s postseason. Yet, there is no bigger test every year for Texas than Oklahoma in Dallas. This one’s a bit of a mystery, with the Sooners bringing in new offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle and quarterback John Mateer, who played high school football in the Dallas area, from Washington State. The new-look Sooners could either be a launching point or a big speed bump in the SEC schedule for a Longhorns team with national championship aspirations. — Dave Wilson

4. Georgia: Alabama

The last coach Georgia fans ever wanted to see on the other sideline is doing television. Nick Saban was 5-1 against Kirby Smart, but even with Saban in his first year of retirement last season, Alabama still beat Georgia in a wild 41-34 game in Tuscaloosa the final weekend of September. Georgia has lost nine of the past 10 games in the series and hasn’t beaten Alabama in the regular season since 2007, Saban’s first season in Tuscaloosa, when the Mark Richt-coached Bulldogs won 26-23 in overtime. Georgia has vaulted to elite status under Smart, but a second straight loss to DeBoer — especially with this year’s game being played in Athens — wouldn’t sit well with anybody in Athens. — Chris Low

5. Ohio State: Sherrone Moore

Michigan coach Sherrone Moore has become a problem for the Buckeyes. He might not wear the villain outfit quite as well as predecessor Jim Harbaugh did, but Moore’s rise in coaching — as Wolverines offensive line coach, offensive coordinator and now head coach — has coincided with Ohio State’s longest losing streak (four games) to its archrival since 1991. Moore served as acting head coach during Harbaugh’s Big Ten-imposed suspension in 2023, as Michigan punched its ticket to the Big Ten championship game. He then earned the permanent role and pulled off one of the more stunning upsets in the history of The Game in November in Columbus. The story of Moore’s coaching career at Michigan is really just beginning, but he has already demonstrated his ability to win the biggest games. — Adam Rittenberg

6. LSU: Daytime home games

LSU fans have been known to curse day games, especially in the sweltering September heat. It’s at night when Tiger Stadium (and typically LSU’s football team) shines. In 2025, the only SEC home game that LSU will definitely play at night is the league opener against Florida on Sept. 13. Home games against South Carolina and Texas A&M fall into the “flex” window, meaning they could start as early as 3:30 p.m. ET or as late as 8 p.m. ET. Since 2000, LSU is 112-15 in Saturday night home games at Tiger Stadium. Brian Kelly has faced just two nationally ranked SEC opponents in day games at Tiger Stadium and is 1-1. — Low

7. Notre Dame: Miami

No Notre Dame players were alive for the 1988 clash with Miami, and Fighting Irish coach Marcus Freeman was only 2 years old. But longtime Domers will always view the U as a true villain, and new Miami quarterback Carson Beck, the transfer from Georgia, sparks a range of reactions. Notre Dame scored a signature win in the CFP semifinal at the Sugar Bowl against a Georgia squad that had lost Beck to injury. When healthy, Beck is talented enough to villainize a Notre Dame defense replacing standouts Xavier Watts, Jack Kiser, Rylie Mills and others and appearing in its first game under new coordinator Chris Ash. Early season games are one of the only knocks against Freeman, who has dropped at least one September game in each of his three seasons as Irish coach. Notre Dame needs a strong start with its two most talented opponents — Miami and Texas A&M — leading off the schedule. — Rittenberg

8. Oregon: Ohio State

Is it too simple to say Ohio State? Maybe just Jeremiah Smith after he caught seven passes for 187 yards and two touchdowns in the Rose Bowl drubbing that the Buckeyes put on the Ducks to end their undefeated season? The good news for Dan Lanning & Co. (or bad depending on how you look at it) is that Oregon will not face Ohio State in the regular season this season and a rematch could only occur in the Big Ten title game or in the College Football Playoff. Penn State enters the fray this season as a much-hyped conference contender that the Ducks will have to face and yet it feels like Oregon and Ohio State are still the cream of the crop for the conference and are likely to continue seeing each other on the sport’s biggest stages. — Paolo Uggetti

9. Alabama: Vanderbilt

Remember when Saban won 100 straight games against unranked opponents, the longest such streak in the AP poll era? Now, all of a sudden, the Crimson Tide are 2-3 against their past five unranked foes, a stretch that started with a stunning 40-35 loss at Vanderbilt last season, which came only a week after DeBoer beat No. 2-ranked Georgia in his SEC opener as Alabama’s head coach. It was the first time Alabama had lost to Vanderbilt since 1984. Alabama will get its shot at payback this season on Oct. 4 when Vanderbilt visits Bryant-Denny Stadium. The loss to Vanderbilt a year ago ignited what was the first three-loss regular season for Alabama since 2010. Judging by some of the comments from Alabama players this offseason, nobody will need to remind the Tide when the Commodores are coming to town. — Low

10. BYU: Utah

It’s always Utah. The “Holy War” frequently manages to surprise us. A year ago, BYU was coming off a 5-7 season and Utah was considered the Big 12 favorite. This time, we have a full reversal: The Utes are the ones coming off a disappointing 5-7 campaign and the Cougars are ranked the highest of any Big 12 team on this list. (Granted, this ranking doesn’t account for the sudden uncertainty BYU is dealing with at the QB position.) We’ll already have a decent idea of BYU’s capabilities by the time Utah visits Provo in Week 8, but the Holy War could serve as a Big 12 title elimination game, and it will definitely impact the tenor of the season for both teams. It always does. — Connelly

Purdue didn’t generate many highlights in 2024, but it gave Illinois a major scare at Memorial Stadium, erasing a 24-3 deficit to force overtime before falling 50-49. Among the Boilermakers’ stars that day was tight end Max Klare, who recorded his first 100-yard receiving performance, finishing with 133 yards on six catches. Klare, like most of Purdue’s best players, transferred following the team’s coaching change. He landed at Ohio State, which will visit Memorial Stadium on Oct. 11. Illinois certainly will be aware of Klare but also must contain Heisman Trophy contender Jeremiah Smith and several other standout wide receivers, if it wants any chance at knocking off the defending national champions. — Rittenberg

12. Arizona State: Regression

Arizona State had one of the hottest teams in the country at the end of 2024 and returns far more of last year’s production than most. The Sun Devils appear primed for a run at a repeat Big 12 title. The problem: No one repeats in the Big 12. ASU’s biggest archrival could simply be regression to the mean. Among current members, the past six teams to reach the Big 12 championship before 2024 — 2020 Iowa State, 2021 Baylor, 2021 Oklahoma State, 2022 Kansas State, 2022 TCU and 2023 Oklahoma State — went a combined 28-9 in one-score finishes during their title runs. The following seasons, they went a combined 9-22 in such games. ASU went 6-2 in one-score finishes last season. It’s really hard to do that twice in a row, and in the Big 12 it appears impossible. — Connelly

13. South Carolina: LSU

South Carolina has its share of hated rivals — Georgia, Clemson, anyone else who plays “Sandstorm” during timeouts — but as the Gamecocks look to make a playoff run in 2025, enemy No. 1 might well be LSU. The Bayou Bengals have dominated South Carolina over the years, holding an 18-2 all-time record and winning eight straight matchups dating to 1995. More recently, LSU escaped Columbia with a 36-33 win last season in which the Gamecocks blew a four-point lead with less than 2 minutes to play. That loss ultimately cost South Carolina a playoff bid, but the Gamecocks feel certain they’re a far better team than they were then. If they can exact some revenge this time, it’ll be a big step toward reaching those lofty goals. — Hale

14. Iowa State: Kansas State

There’s no such thing as a Week 0 elimination game, but we get the closest thing to it in Dublin to start the 2025 season. The annual (for now) Farmageddon battle between ISU and Kansas State will take place in particularly green pastures this time, and it will pit two preseason top 20 teams with major Big 12 title hopes. Last year, the Cyclones’ defense played a perfect fourth quarter against the Wildcats, allowing just one yard in 12 snaps to win 29-21 and advance to the conference title game. This time, someone will be 0-1 in conference play before Week 1 even arrives. This is about as big a season opener as you could hope for. — Connelly

15. SMU: TCU

SMU was 3-17 against TCU coaches in the Dennis Franchione/Gary Patterson era, then Sonny Dykes won two straight against the Frogs in Dallas. Once he defected for the purple pastures of Fort Worth, he then won his first two against the Mustangs. Last year, however, SMU got its revenge in a 66-42 pummeling of TCU in a game in which Dykes was ejected. This year, the two teams, which have met 103 times, are scheduled for their last Iron Skillet game for the foreseeable future. This one will have some heat. — Wilson

16. Texas Tech: Baylor

Red Raiders coach Joey McGuire got his start in college coaching at Baylor under Matt Rhule and was promoted under Dave Aranda. He left in midseason in 2021 when he got the Tech job. While trying to right the ship in Lubbock, he’s gone 1-2 against Aranda, including a 59-35 home loss last season. Since Mike Leach was fired, the Red Raiders are 5-10 against the Bears, a team they’ll need to eclipse with their big ambitions to sit atop the Big 12. — Wilson

17. Indiana: UCLA

Coach Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers did a great job of retaining players and coaches from a 2024 team that won a school-record 11 games and reached the CFP. But two who got away — a coach and a player — landed with UCLA, which visits Indiana on Oct. 25. New Bruins offensive coordinator Tino Sunseri coached Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke last year and had spent the previous three seasons on Cignetti’s staff at James Madison. He might know the secrets to attacking Indiana’s defense. Defensive back Jamier Johnson transferred from Indiana to UCLA after recording 35 tackles and an interception last fall for the Hoosiers. Johnson, who began his college career at Texas, will be part of a reshaped UCLA secondary. — Rittenberg

18. Kansas State: Iowa State

As mentioned above, it’s all about the season opener against Iowa State. It will be the first opportunity for quarterback Avery Johnson and K-State to prove that last year’s all-or-nothing offense has matured a bit. The Wildcats averaged 37.6 points in wins and only 15.8 in losses. They scored TDs on 75% of red zone drives in wins and 42% in losses. They committed more turnovers in the four losses (nine) than in the nine wins (seven). You could almost say that this means K-State’s biggest archrival is K-State. Regardless, Week 0 is enormous. Turnovers and later-down failures cost it dearly against Iowa State last season, and it gets an immediate opportunity to right one of 2024’s wrongs. — Connelly

19. Florida: Georgia

Florida has plenty of teams it considers rivals, but only one on the schedule this season has beaten the Gators four years in a row. That would be Georgia, which has absolutely dominated them since Kirby Smart took over the program in 2016. Smart is 7-2 against Florida, and just like that record, has finished ahead of Florida in the SEC standings seven times. We all know the Gators closed last season strong with big wins over LSU and Ole Miss, but the true litmus test for where this program is — and whether it can return to elite status under coach Billy Napier — is the Georgia game. — Adelson

20. Michigan: Ohio State

Even though the Wolverines have won four straight in the series, Ohio State remains Michigan’s archvillain for obvious reasons. The Buckeyes rattled off eight straight wins before Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh turned the tide in 2021 with the first of the four straight victories. Coach Sherrone Moore salvaged an up-and-down, first full season with a stunning 13-10 victory over Ohio State in Columbus last year. Much of that Ohio State national championship team has moved on to the NFL. But the postgame flag-plant fracas at the Horseshoe last year reinforced why this bitter rivalry has never carried more vitriol for either side. The last thing the Wolverines want this season is to watch Ohio State return the favor by planting its flag on the Block M at the Big House. — Trotter

21. Miami: Syracuse

Georgia Tech is not on the schedule this year or that would be the slam dunk choice. We could go with the obvious “traditional arch nemesis” Notre Dame, which is visiting South Florida for the first time since 2017. But there is another team that gets to wear the villain hat, if only for this season: Syracuse. That’s right, the team that beat Miami 42-38 in the 2024 regular-season finale to keep the Hurricanes out of the ACC championship game visits Hard Rock Stadium on Nov. 8. While both rosters have turned over since that game, the head coaches remain the same and there might be some added fuel to the fire. — Adelson

22. Louisville: Kentucky

In 2022, Louisville was 10-1 and favored against rival Kentucky. The Cardinals lost. In 2021, they were 7-4 and lost. It was an all-too-familiar story. Since 2016, Louisville has lost as a favorite against its rival three times — often sullying otherwise impressive seasons. Last year, the Cardinals had no such worries as they beat up on the Wildcats, who were slogging through a down season, but Jeff Brohm & Co. know the history too well to assume that will be the start of a trend. There are tougher and bigger games on Louisville’s schedule this season, but none that will mean more than beating those hated Cats. — Hale

23. Texas A&M: Steve Sarkisian

Sarkisian has done a masterful job reloading Texas to meet its potential. Last year, he took the Longhorns into Kyle Field and spoiled the Aggies’ chances of getting into the SEC championship game, and this year, A&M visits Austin for the first time since 2010 where Arch Manning hysteria dominates the headlines and the Longhorns will be seeking a coronation for a playoff run. Sarkisian, an avowed fan of college rivalries and traditions, will look to push all the right buttons to ignite his team. — Wilson

24. Ole Miss: Mississippi State

Don’t get anybody in Oxford started on those “dreaded” cowbells clanging away from fans of the “school down south.” That school being bitter rival Mississippi State, whose former coach, Dan Mullen, used to refer to Ole Miss as the “school up north.” Either way, nobody in the SEC is particularly fond of the Mississippi State cowbells, in no way a banned artificial noisemaker. Yes, that’s a joke. But to Ole Miss fans, they would rather hear nails scratching on a chalkboard. The good news for the Rebels is that they’ve lost only once in the past five games between the schools but will get a heavy dose of the cowbells this Nov. 28 in Starkville. — Low

25. Oklahoma: Texas

In the Wishbone era, and then once again after Bob Stoops took over then ceded way to Lincoln Riley, the Oklahoma quarterback position made college football kings. In recent years, Landry Jones, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Caleb Williams and Dillon Gabriel all put up huge numbers. But the Sooners have fallen back a little and Texas is rolling into the Cotton Bowl with its own football royalty in Arch Manning. Oklahoma needs to right the ship, and all eyes will be on Dallas and where the program stands in the SEC era. — Wilson

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Passan finds the perfect trade deadline addition for every MLB contender

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July 10, 2025

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Passan finds the perfect trade deadline addition for every MLB contender

It’s posturing season. Major League Baseball’s trade deadline goes through the same mechanics every year. Following June calls to indicate interest in players, early-to-mid-July brings out the first offers, which are inevitably imbalanced toward the teams willing to move players and, accordingly, holding all the leverage.

It’s the reason trades before the All-Star break are rare — and also a reminder that just because a match isn’t there now, it doesn’t preclude one going forward. So many elements play into a deadline (the keenness of teams to send away quality players, the willingness of contenders to make a move over the objection of their analytical model, the standings, recent performance and dozens of others) that to link team and player in a potential deal is a fool’s errand.

Well, consider this slightly foolish. Needs are needs, and even the best teams in baseball have them. Who would be the best players to fill them? This exercise endeavors to answer that.

Below are the 16 teams in MLB with winning records. Certainly a cadre of under-.500 teams — the Texas Rangers, Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins, Arizona Diamondbacks chief among them — could work their way into the conversation despite their slow starts. For now, though, these are the best teams baseball has to offer, and for each we found a fit among available players that makes too much sense not to pursue.

Teams are listed in order of record by league.

American League

59-35, first place, AL Central

Weakness: Swing-and-miss relievers

Best match: David Bednar, Pittsburgh Pirates

Cade Smith (Cleveland Guardians) and Griffin Jax (Minnesota Twins) are the right answers, but the likelihood of Detroit pulling off an in-division deal to get a swing-and-miss reliever is minimal. Which leaves Bednar, who has rebounded from an atrocious 2024 to recapture his form of 2021-23, when he was among the five best relievers in baseball. With a high-90s fastball, a hard-breaking curveball and a mean splitter, Bednar’s arsenal would give the Tigers a ninth-inning option beyond Will Vest or Tommy Kahnle.

Beyond the bullpen, the Tigers don’t need much. They can really hit, with eight of their nine regulars sporting slugging percentages of .415 or better. Manager AJ Hinch’s constant tinkering — the most Detroit has used one lineup this year is four times — doesn’t just work, it is an identity the team embraces.

And as much as the Tigers could use capital from their tremendous farm system to add to this team, they don’t necessarily need it. This is the second year of a window that’s bound to last. Securing Bednar’s services for two playoff runs is the sort of incremental step needed to capitalize in a down American League.

55-38, first place, AL West

Weakness: Starting pitching and left-handed hitting

Best match: Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals

The Astros lost Alex Bregman to free agency, traded Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs, have spent most of the season without Yordan Alvarez, their best hitter, and currently sport a rotation that includes 26- and 28-year-old rookies. There is no reason they should be this good. And yet they are.

So even if the cost is heavy and eats into a farm system that’s among the worst in MLB, targeting a pitcher of Lugo’s ilk would give them among the nastiest postseason rotations in the game and further entrench the Astros as a force. Lugo’s peripherals suggest he’s in line for regression but even if his ERA does jump from its current 2.67 mark, Lugo’s nine-pitch mix gives him the flexibility to adjust in-game — a luxury shared by only a handful of starters in the game.

54-39, first place, American League East

Weakness: Starting pitching

Best match: Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates

Adding Keller solves multiple problems at once. The 29-year-old is producing the best season of his seven-year career with the Pirates, averaging nearly six innings a start and giving up only seven home runs in 106⅓ innings. The Blue Jays need rotation help — and, in a deal for Keller, could try to get David Bednar, Dennis Santana or Caleb Ferguson from the Pirates to complement an already-good bullpen riding breakouts from Braydon Fisher and Brendon Little.

Further, Keller remains under contract for three years at a reasonable $54.5 million, and with starters Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer free agents after this year and Kevin Gausman following the 2026 season, Toronto covets controllable starting pitching in a market that, at the moment at least, doesn’t offer much.

Pittsburgh could hold onto Keller and march into 2026 with a staff of Keller, Paul Skenes, Mike Burrows, Bubba Chandler and Bailey Falter — easily a top-10 rotation, maybe better — with Hunter Barco not far behind. But the Pirates desperately need bats and while Toronto’s farm system is not teeming with them, the Blue Jays can cobble together enough to make a deal worth Pittsburgh’s while.

51-41, second place, AL East (first wild card)

Weakness: Third baseman and pitching

Best match: Eugenio Suárez, Arizona Diamondbacks

This could be Seth Lugo. Or Emmanuel Clase of the Guardians. Or any number of players. The Yankees are not going to stop at one player this deadline. For all their strengths — and there are plenty — they have too many weaknesses to take half-measures.

Suárez is an excellent first step. His power is undeniable, a perfect fit in the middle of any lineup. He plays third base, a black hole for New York this season. The Yankees could two-birds-one-stone a deal and get Zac Gallen or Merrill Kelly from Arizona, too. But Suárez is the main target, because even if other third-base options exist — Nolan Arenado in St. Louis, Ryan McMahon in Colorado, Ke’Bryan Hayes in Pittsburgh — they’re owed significant money and are under contract for multiple years. Suárez’s expiring contract would allow the Yankees a trial run, and if he thrives in the Bronx, all they would need to bring him back is cash.

50-43, third place, AL East (second wild card)

Weakness: Relief pitching

Best match: Griffin Jax, Minnesota Twins

Remember, now, this is the best match, not necessarily the likeliest. Minnesota is notoriously value-conscious in its dealings, and the Twins will put an exceptionally high price on Jax, whom they regard as one of the best relievers in baseball — an opinion shared by most teams. With a fastball that sits at 97 mph and a dastardly slider, he is a setup man in name and a closer in stuff — precisely what the Rays, who are missing Manuel Rodriguez and Hunter Bigge, could use.

The Rays aren’t typically the sort of team to overpay for relievers, even ones with two additional years of club control. If not Jax, they could opt for Brock Stewart (Twins), who likewise has a vast array of swing-and-miss stuff — and two more years of team control as well.

48-44, second place, AL West (tied for third wild card)

Weakness: Corner infielder

Best match: Josh Naylor, Arizona Diamondbacks

Though the Mariners are managing with Donovan Solano and Luke Raley at first base, upgrading to Naylor would transform Seattle’s lineup for the better. Whether it’s slotting him behind J.P. Crawford to ensure Cal Raleigh comes to the plate with more baserunners, or sticking him in between Raleigh and Randy Arozarena to do the cleaning up himself, Naylor is a high-average, low-strikeout slugger whose quality at-bats would help transform a solid Seattle lineup into something more.

Pairing him with Eugenio Suárez would plug both of Seattle’s holes, and certainly the Mariners have the prospect capital to pull off the double. Considering the state of their pitching — a tremendous rotation and a Gabe Speier–Matt Brash–Andrés Muñoz endgame — the Mariners need only a depth reliever to feel comfortable. Upgrading the lineup is the distinct priority over the next three weeks, and executives expect Seattle to act aggressively.

49-45, fourth place, AL East (tied for third wild card)

Weakness: Relief pitching

Best match: Ryan Helsley, St. Louis Cardinals

Red Sox relievers walk too many hitters and don’t strike out enough. Take away Aroldis Chapman — the best reliever in the AL this season — and the Red Sox have a middle-of-the-pack bullpen. Getting Helsley from St. Louis would give Boston arguably the top setup-closer combination in baseball and go a long way toward supporting a rotation that has been among the game’s best over the past month.

Boston has the makings of a very good team in the second half. Alex Bregman will return soon. Roman Anthony has an OPS of nearly 1.000 over his past 10 games. Ceddanne Rafaela is one of the best center fielders in baseball. Carlos Narváez is a gem. Wilyer Abreu, Trevor Story, even Abraham Toro — everyone is contributing. A reliever or two and another starter would make the Red Sox the sort of contender they envisioned being at the beginning of the season.

National League

56-38, first place, NL West

Weakness: Pitching depth

Best match: Jhoan Durán, Minnesota Twins

The Dodgers enter every deadline season seeking a major move, and the 6-foot-5, 230-pound Durán qualifies. With a fastball that averages over 100 mph, a splinker that sits at 98 and a curveball to keep hitters off balance, Durán is pitching as well as ever. He hasn’t given up a home run this season, and his 1.52 ERA is third in MLB for pitchers with at least 40 innings.

The asking price will be hefty. Durán comes with two more years of team control beyond this season. The Dodgers don’t have time to waste on taking advantage of Shohei Ohtani‘s prime, though, and assembling a team with standouts in all facets is a reasonable goal. For a group threatening to approach a major league record for pitchers used in a season — the Dodgers are at 35, the record is 42 from Seattle in 2019 — adding another wouldn’t in and of itself be a needle-mover. If that one happens to be Durán, the Dodgers could theoretically trot out him, Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates and Alex Vesia to make their bullpen every bit as scary as the rest of their team.

Chicago Cubs

54-38, first place, NL Central

Weakness: Starting pitching

Best match: Sandy Alcántara, Miami Marlins

The market for Alcántara might not reflect his résumé. A former Cy Young Award winner, the 29-year-old has been arguably the worst pitcher in baseball this season, with an ERA just above 7.22. Some teams — even ones that could desperately use starting pitching — see the remaining two years and $38.3 million on Alcántara’s deal as an impediment to any trade, particularly with Marlins GM Peter Bendix asking for a haul in return.

Whether it’s Alcántara or another starter, the Cubs are a good starter away from having one of the top teams in baseball. Their offense is undeniable. Their defense is magnificent. Their bullpen has been a pleasant surprise. Adding a playoff-caliber starter, even if it pushes Chicago past the $241 million luxury-tax threshold, would reward a team that has brought excitement back to the North Side of Chicago.

54-39, first place, National League East

Weakness: Bullpen and outfield

Best match: Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Guardians

As long as the Phillies are aiming high — and nobody aims high quite like Dave Dombrowski — perhaps they could take a run at landing both Clase and Steven Kwan from Cleveland. Maybe it would take Andrew Painter. Maybe Aidan Miller. Maybe Justin Crawford. Regardless, the Phillies’ window is closing, and getting both club control (Clase is under contract through 2028 and Kwan through 2027) and cost certainty (Clase is due $26 million for the next three years and Kwan less than $20 million for two) would make dealing high-end prospects significantly more palatable.

If Cleveland ultimately balks at moving Clase, it doesn’t change the imperative: Philadelphia needs to address its weaknesses. This bullpen is not suited to win a playoff series, much less the World Series. The consequence of bad relief pitching manifested itself in the postseason last year, when the New York Mets filleted Phillies relievers for 17 runs in 12⅔ innings. No other bullpen gave up more than nine runs in the division series. Clase (or Jhoan Durán or any shutdown reliever, really) is just a start. An on-the-fly overhaul is what this team needs — and deserves.

53-39, second place, NL East (first wild card)

Weakness: Pitching depth

Best match: Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks

The Mets started 45-24 on the strength of their starting pitching. With a 2.79 ERA that was nearly a quarter-run better than the second-best rotation, they cut the figure of a juggernaut. Since June 13, their starters’ 5.61 ERA is worse than every team in baseball aside from Washington. And if your starters are getting compared to those of the Nationals, something went haywire.

Gallen has looked more like his old self in recent starts, and if his home run rate stabilizes — typically one per nine, it has jumped to 1.6 — alongside a perilously low strand rate normalizing, he can shake off the 5.15 ERA and be a real difference-maker for the Mets before hitting free agency after the season. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns doesn’t, as a general rule, spend big on pitching. In this case, though, an investment in Gallen makes too much sense for the Mets not to consider.

53-40, second place, NL Central (second wild card)

Weakness: Power

Best match: Ryan O’Hearn, Baltimore Orioles

With 88 home runs, the Brewers rank just 21st in MLB. And while that hasn’t impeded their production — they’re eighth in runs scored — another big bat could do their offense wonders. Nobody will mistake the soon-to-be-32-year-old O’Hearn for Aaron Judge, but he punishes right-handed pitching, and in a lineup without any boppers, O’Hearn also could serve as the strong side of a first-base platoon and pick up outfield and DH at-bats.

Milwaukee’s options are fascinating. Jacob Misiorowski‘s arrival has been an unmitigated success and only added to the Brewers’ starting pitching depth. They could easily move a starting pitcher and tap into their deep prospect well for O’Hearn. The add-and-subtract maneuver is risky, sure, but the Brewers have steeled themselves to weather it. The Brewers, as currently constituted, are solid. Better second halves from Jackson Chourio and Joey Ortiz, continued solid pitching and the proper sort of deadline aggressiveness could make them even more.

51-43, second place, NL West (third wild card)

Weakness: Starting pitching

Best match: Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks

The Giants made their big move already, getting the best player who will move this season — designated hitter Rafael Devers — to shore up their offense. Intradivision trades can be trying, but if Buster Posey has shown anything in his first season as president of baseball operations, it’s a willingness to stomach the sorts of deals that would scare off his peers.

Kelly represents a significant upgrade over the Giants’ backend rotation options, as Justin Verlander and Hayden Birdsong are sporting ERAs of 6.27 and 5.73, respectively, since June 1. Whether the Giants are real or simply a function of a bullpen whose core of Camilo Doval, Randy Rodriguez, Tyler Rogers, Erik Miller, Spencer Bivens and Ryan Walker has given up only 11 home runs in 232⅔ innings remains to be seen. For an organization seeking its first postseason series win in nearly a decade, though, there is never a time as urgent as now.

49-43, third place, NL West (one game behind third wild card)

Weakness: Left field

Best match: Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox

No player and team have been linked as strongly as Duran and the Padres — and that’s without any knowledge of how the Red Sox intend to handle the deadline. Roman Anthony’s emergence has put Boston in a position to float Duran and Wilyer Abreu in trade discussions, and whether it’s now or over the winter, Boston wants to use its surplus of bats to fill voids elsewhere.

Left field in San Diego is among the biggest voids in the game. The Padres have tried eight players in left this season, and collectively they’re barely have an OPS of over .600. A Duran-Jackson Merrill–Fernando Tatis Jr. outfield would be a factory of dynamism that would be under team control through the end of the 2028 season. The Padres might need to get creative — beyond shortstop Leo De Vries (who’s believed to be off-limits) and catcher Ethan Salas, their farm system is middling — but nobody does creativity like GM A.J. Preller. And whether that means facilitating a deal through a third team or including one of their high-leverage relievers like closer Robert Suárez, San Diego is willing to go places most other organizations would never consider.

49-44, third place, NL Central (1½ games behind third wild card)

Weakness: Starting pitching

Best match: Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Rays

Certainly there’s a world in which John Mozeliak’s final deadline as St. Louis’ president of baseball operations is uneventful. The NL is stacked, and for all of the Cardinals’ improvement this season, they remain a flawed team. And yet there’s also a world in which Mozeliak can make this year’s team better and simultaneously set up his successor, Chaim Bloom, with a rotation option for the future.

The Rays don’t have a strong desire to move the 24-year-old Bradley, but with Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot, Shane Baz and Joe Boyle all pitching well, and ace Shane McClanahan out on a rehabilitation assignment, Tampa Bay is at least entertaining the idea. Bradley’s stuff has exceeded his performance over his three major league seasons, but the controllable-starting-pitching market is practically empty, and St. Louis’ farm system is replete with high-end catchers, which would fill a vacuum for the Rays

47-46, fourth place, NL Central (3½ games behind third wild card)

Weakness: Bullpen and big bat

Best match: Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians

With a sneaky-deep farm system, the Reds could put together the sort of package to convince Cleveland to move Kwan, a two-time All-Star who in his four seasons ranks fifth in wins above replacement among all outfielders, behind only Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Kyle Tucker and Julio Rodríguez. Kwan’s bat-to-ball and defensive skills in left field are elite, and with free agency not beckoning until after the 2027 season, sandwiching him between TJ Friedl and Elly De La Cruz strengthens a Reds lineup that could use an offensive infusion.

If the cost to acquire Kwan is too high, other good options exist, chief among them Marcell Ozuna, the Atlanta slugger whose swing was built for Great American Ball Park. With a rotation that includes All-Star Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Chase Burns, the Reds are a terrifying postseason opponent. Another bat would buttress the rotation and give Cincinnati an opportunity to turn potential into its first postseason series win in three decades.

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Godfather offers for Skenes, Acuña and Buxton: Trade proposals their teams might not reject

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Godfather offers for Skenes, Acuña and Buxton: Trade proposals their teams might not reject

  • David SchoenfieldJul 8, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

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    • Covers MLB for ESPN.com
    • Former deputy editor of Page 2
    • Been with ESPN.com since 1995

Comparing MLB to the NBA is kind of like comparing apples to pomegranates, but the NBA, with its rapid-fire spate of blockbuster trades and signings, certainly has us wishing major league front office executives operated as daringly as their basketball counterparts.

The conservative nature in baseball is understandable. Nobody wants to end up as the general manager who trades Pete Crow-Armstrong for two months of Javier Baez and a failed playoff bid.

But every now and then we get a shocking deal. At the MLB trade deadline in 2022, the San Diego Padres gave up five highly rated young players to acquire Juan Soto, who still had two-plus seasons left of team control. Three of those young players — James Wood, MacKenzie Gore and CJ Abrams — now form the core of the Washington Nationals. And just a few weeks ago came the surprise mid-June trade of Rafael Devers, in only the second year of a 10-year contract, from the Boston Red Sox to the San Francisco Giants.

Might another similarly entertaining megadeal occur this month ahead of the deadline on July 31? Probably not, but we can dream.

Let’s consider three players who almost certainly won’t be made available for trade this year, but whose names have been kicked around in (quite unlikely) fan trade scenarios. If the right offer did arrive, the player’s organization would have to at least consider making the deal … right?

Call them Godfather offers. Let’s see what it would take to land three star players in 2025.

(All prospect rankings are from Kiley McDaniel’s top 50 update from late May.)

Why they’ll probably keep him: He’s arguably the best starter in baseball, perhaps on his way to a Cy Young Award in his first full season. He’s one of the biggest names in the sport — despite playing for the lowly Pirates — and a player you can build not only a pitching staff around but a championship contender. He’s under team control through 2029 and doesn’t even become arbitration-eligible until 2027, so the Pirates are still years away from paying him a fair salary.

But Skenes is a pitcher — and pitchers get hurt. So, if the Pirates are open to listening …

Offer No. 1: New York Mets offer SS/CF Jett Williams (No. 20), RHP Jonah Tong (No. 50), RHP Nolan McLean, IF Ronny Mauricio, OF Carson Benge

Offer No. 2: Los Angeles Dodgers offer C/OF Dalton Rushing (No. 14), OF Josue De Paula (No. 17), IF Alex Freeland, RHP Emmet Sheehan, LHP Jackson Ferris

Offer No. 3: Detroit Tigers offer OF Max Clark (No. 8), SS Kevin McGonigle (No. 11), RHP Jackson Jobe, IF Colt Keith, RHP Sawyer Gipson-Long

The one that could get it done: Tigers

A playoff rotation with Skenes and Tarik Skubal? Thank you very much. Reminder: The Tigers haven’t won the World Series since 1984.

It will take one of the best farm systems in the sport to acquire Skenes, and Detroit is incredibly well positioned to make this kind of deal, with depth at both the major league and minor league levels, not to mention a payroll with only one expensive long-term commitment in Javier Baez. Two of the top prospects in the sport in Clark and McGonigle headline this trade, with both currently excelling in High-A ball. Clark, a speedy center fielder, has a .429 OBP with more walks than strikeouts, and McGonigle is hitting .373 with a high contact rate and OPS over 1.100. Former top pitching prospect Jobe underwent Tommy John surgery in June and would be a nice inclusion for the Pirates to gamble on.

For the Tigers, the deal wouldn’t even decimate their farm system. They would still have shortstop Bryce Rainer (No. 22), first baseman/catcher Josue Briceno and a slew of solid pitching prospects. For the Pirates, Clark and McGonigle project as solutions at two problem areas in center field (where Oneil Cruz has struggled defensively) and shortstop (stopgap Isiah Kiner-Falefa is the current starter) plus they get a solid major leaguer in Keith and a back-end rotation-type in Gipson-Long.

As much as the Mets could use a staff ace, their system is deeper in pitching prospects, which doesn’t best align with the Pirates’ needs. As the Dodgers’ pitching injuries have piled up again, Skenes could be a match. Rushing is blocked at catcher by Will Smith, and he and De Paula probably have more power upside (De Paula has drawn Yordan Alvarez comparisons) than Clark and McGonigle. The Pirates might, understandably, ask for Roki Sasaki, and that could be the deal-breaker for the Dodgers.

Why they’ll probably keep him: Acuña has been one of the best hitters in the majors since returning in late May from his second ACL surgery and has been the best hitter on a Braves team that is near the bottom of the National League in runs scored. He is signed through 2028 on an incredibly team-friendly deal that pays him just $17 million per season — making it one of the best contracts in the sport for a team. At just 27 years old, he remains in the middle of his prime and is one of the sport’s most dynamic talents.

But Acuña’s knees are a long-term concern, Atlanta lacks depth in both the lineup and pitching staff, and this looks like a lost season.

So, if the Braves are open to listening …

Offer No. 1: Milwaukee Brewers offer SS Jesus Made (No. 5), SS Luis Pena, OF Sal Frelick, RHP Logan Henderson, RHP Abner Uribe

Offer No. 2: Seattle Mariners offer SS Colt Emerson (No. 10), RHP Bryce Miller, C Harry Ford, OF Lazaro Montes, LHP Brandyn Garcia

Offer No. 3: Tampa Bay Rays offer SS Carson Willliams (No. 27), RHP Shane Baz, OF Theo Gillen, RHP Yoniel Curet, RHP Brody Hopkins

The one that could get it done: Mariners

The Mariners have never played in a World Series. Their right-field production is among the worst in the majors. Oh, and they have a loaded farm system with nine prospects on MLB.com’s recently updated top 100, more than any other team. On that list, Emerson came in at No. 18, Montes at No. 29 and Ford at No. 56. Miller’s value is temporarily down since he’s out because of right elbow inflammation, but he had a 2.94 ERA for the Mariners in 2024 and could give the Braves a front-line starter if healthy.

Ford might not be a perfect fit for Atlanta with Drake Baldwin (plus Sean Murphy) at catcher, but Cal Raleigh blocks Ford in Seattle. The Braves could trade Murphy in the offseason, and Ford does have the athleticism to play some outfield — although he has played exclusively behind the plate at Triple-A, where he’s hitting over .300 with an OBP over .400. Emerson is a favorite of scouts with his hard contact and ability to play shortstop, although he’s still learning to lift the ball more, while Montes recently earned a promotion to Double-A after slugging .572 in High-A at age 20.

For the Mariners, Acuña would fit nicely at the top of the order or hitting second in front of Raleigh, allowing them to slide Julio Rodriguez lower in the lineup — and maybe Acuña’s presence would also help take some pressure off Rodriguez. Most importantly: Acuña’s salary is a realistic fit even for the Mariners, who don’t like to spend. And despite giving up three excellent prospects and a young starting pitcher, their farm system would remain strong. Plus, they have the No. 3 pick in this year’s draft.

Milwaukee’s offer is enticing with two premium hitting prospects in Made and Pena, but it’s a riskier package as the 18-year-olds are a long way from the majors and neither is a lock to stick at shortstop, a big offensive hole in the Braves’ lineup. Williams would be the key to the Tampa Bay trade, but his sky-high strikeout rate at Triple-A has caused him to drop in the rankings and limits his offensive upside.

Why they’ll probably keep him: The Twins are under .500, but that doesn’t mean they’re out of the playoff race. Buxton has been their best player and best hitter as he’s on pace for a career high in WAR. Though he hasn’t reached the heights of Acuña at Acuña’s best, Buxton’s contract is also team friendly, as he’s signed through 2028 and making $15.1 million per season. He’s 31 years old but is still one of the better defensive center fielders in the game.

But Buxton, while healthy in 2025, is frequently sidelined by injuries. So, if the Twins are open to listening …

Offer No. 1: Philadelphia Phillies offer RHP Andrew Painter (No. 23) and OF Justin Crawford

Offer No. 2: Cincinnati Reds offer RHP Rhett Lowder (No. 48), RHP Chase Petty (No. 49) and 3B Sal Stewart

Offer No. 3: Kansas City Royals offer LHP Cole Ragans and LHP David Shields

The one that could get it done: Phillies

The Phillies, Reds and Royals all could use an outfielder to add some punch to their lineups, although in Cincinnati’s case, its biggest hole is at third base. Philadelphia has a lot riding on 2025 given the age of its lineup, and executive Dave Dombrowski knows how to go all-in. In this case, that would mean parting with one of the top pitching prospects in the game in Painter, plus a promising young outfielder hitting well at Triple-A.

Trading Painter would be painful, but the Phillies remain deep in the rotation with Zack Wheeler (signed through 2027), Cristopher Sanchez (signed through 2030), Aaron Nola (signed through 2030) and Jesus Luzardo (under team control through 2026). Ranger Suarez, who’s having an excellent season, is heading into free agency, so he’s the one arm they might lose. But center field has been a soft spot in recent seasons, with the Phillies in the bottom third in the majors in OPS this year, and the team’s overall power output has been below average, even with Kyle Schwarber. Adding Buxton adds more pop to the middle of the order.

Painter gives the Twins a potential ace, and they have top prospect Emmanuel Rodriguez ready to take over in center field anyway. The 21-year-old Crawford is a divisive prospect (he’s No. 49 in the MLB.com rankings) because while he’s hitting for a high average at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, he hits the ball on the ground too much and has only two home runs. Still, there’s a chance he produces a good OBP and plus defense with his speed.

The Royals’ challenge trade with Ragans is intriguing but risky for Minnesota, given he’s on the injured list right now because of a rotator cuff strain. Plus, intradivision trades are hard to pull off. The Twins would want Chase Burns from the Reds, but that’s probably a nonstarter for Cincinnati.

Will we get some surprise spicy deals this trade deadline? Will it just be the usual list of free-agents-to-be and relief pitchers? In a season that remains so wide open, the time might be right for some outside-the-box movement.

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