It’s elimination Monday! Answering the questions that will decide ALCS Game 7 and NLCS Game 6
It’s elimination Monday in the championship series round of the 2023 MLB playoffs.
First, the Arizona Diamondbacks will attempt to stay alive against the Philadelphia Phillies as the National League Championship Series shifts back to Citizens Bank Park for Game 6. Then, it’s time for the two best words in sports: Game 7! This time, it’s Texas style, with the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros meeting one more time with a World Series trip on the line in the American League Championship Series.
To get ready for all of the excitement in Philly and Houston, we asked the ESPN MLB experts covering these series to answer the biggest question for each team vying to make it through to the Fall Classic.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies
NLCS Game 6, 5:07 p.m. ET (Merrill Kelly vs. Aaron Nola)
What can the D-backs do to avoid being overwhelmed by the atmosphere in Philly?
David Schoenfield: Well, the easy answer is to score in the top of the first inning and then keep the Phillies off the board in the bottom of the first. In Game 1, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper homered in the first inning. In Game 2, Trea Turner homered in the first off Merrill Kelly, who gets the ball again in Game 6. But the noise is going to be there regardless.
If there is a key for the Diamondbacks, I’m looking at Corbin Carroll. He’s just 2-for-19 with one walk in the series, and after going 54-for-59 in stolen bases in the regular season, he hasn’t attempted a steal in the NLCS. He needs to get on base and needs to be aggressive. The Diamondbacks aren’t going to win two games here playing it safe.
Jeff Passan: Get back to who they are. During the regular season, the Diamondbacks’ offense thrived when it dared opponents to stop its running game. So far in the NLCS, Arizona has swiped just one bag — by Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in Game 3. Neutralizing Arizona’s base-stealing presence — especially from Corbin Carroll, who took 54 bags in the regular season — has been a priority of the Phillies and one they’ve executed well, from their pitchers’ fast times to the plate and quickened deliveries to the play of Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto, whose pop times are the best in the big leagues.
The Diamondbacks usually won’t outslug the Phillies, so when they get runners on, they need to do their best to beat Philadelphia and better embody the word they’ve embraced all year: chaos.
Jesse Rogers: Learn from Games 1 and 2. It has to mean something having been through it already. Really, it all comes down to Merrill Kelly. The D-backs have been down early in games way too often in this series. This isn’t the Milwaukee Brewers they’re playing here. Kelly has to give them three to five solid innings in Game 6, and then Arizona’s lefty relievers simply have to shut down some of the best left-handed sluggers on the planet. If ever the cliché “one inning at a time” applies, it’s now. And it starts with Kelly.
How should the Phillies set up their bullpen for the rest of this series?
Schoenfield: It seems pretty clear that Craig Kimbrel has probably pitched himself out of high-leverage situations. It’s not just that he lost Games 3 and 4 with poor outings, but even including four earlier scoreless appearances in the postseason, he has induced just nine swinging strikes out of 111 pitches, a very low total for a high-leverage reliever. Rob Thomson still has plenty of good options, though, and he’ll rely on Jeff Hoffman and lefties Matt Strahm and Jose Alvarado as his top three guys, with Seranthony Dominguez and Gregory Soto as deeper reserves. That’s still a lot of depth to deploy.
Thomson should use Alvarado and Hoffman against the top half of the order, matching up lefties with Carroll as he’s been doing, and use them as needed based on the situation and allow Strahm or Soto to close if necessary. A good manager is flexible with the bullpen, and Thomson should proceed with closer-by-committee at this point. That group has been good this postseason: In 25 innings, just one home run and five runs allowed.
Passan: With duct tape and superglue. Yes, Kimbrel and Orion Kerkering would be going on two days’ rest if they take the mound in Game 6, but does Rob Thomson trust either? If not, it’s likely going to be the Aaron Nola Show for as long as possible, with Hoffman entering if a leverage situation reveals itself early — Thomson has used him in a fireman role — and likely a heavy dose of Alvarado in the late innings.
Thomson seems to trust left-hander Strahm and right-hander Dominguez, so if he needs to match up, he’s got options. But the prospect of throwing Taijuan Walker or Michael Lorenzen for the first time this postseason in Game 6 of the NLCS seems reserved for only if they’re behind and need innings eaten to preserve those in the circle of trust for a potential Game 7. Ranger Suarez, the projected starter for a Tuesday game, is not an option out of the bullpen in Game 6, Thomson said Sunday.
Rogers: Unlike the Diamondbacks’ bullpen, the Phillies don’t have to play the matchup game all that often. Other than perhaps making sure Carroll faces Alvarado or Strahm, Thomson can deploy his righties as he sees fit while staying away from Kimbrel. And frankly, if there’s a time to send Walker or Lorenzen to the mound, it should come in Game 6. Not that the Phillies can mess around, but it seems like Thomson has missed an opportunity or two to utilize them so far. He wouldn’t have that luxury in a win-or-go-home Game 7, but with a one-game cushion, it’s a possibility — especially if Aaron Nola has a shorter-than-expected start. Kerkering could probably use a high-leverage moment off as well. Otherwise, it’ll be Hoffman, Dominguez, Strahm and Alvarado to bring home the pennant.
Texas Rangers at Houston Astros
ALCS Game 7, 8:03 p.m. ET (Max Scherzer vs. Cristian Javier)
What will be Bruce Bochy’s plan for his pitchers?
Bradford Doolittle: Nathan Eovaldi getting into the seventh on Sunday was huge as it allowed Bruce Bochy to deploy his standard late-inning contingent without overextending any of them. Now for Game 7, he hopes to do the same thing — only the path from Inning 1 to Inning 7 is likely to be less clear than letting Eovaldi roll three times through the Houston lineup. Max Scherzer will be on a short leash, and even if he’s on — around his typical velo, with a better slider than in Game 3 — you’d think 80-85 pitches would be his ceiling.
Bochy has a number of rested options to get from Scherzer to his high-leverage crew. Sorting out who matches up best with who, well, that’s an open question, but it’s one that Bochy has answered correctly so many times during his playoff career. If Scherzer’s outing is short, then it gets dicey and Bochy will have to get multiple innings from someone, whether it’s Cody Bradford, Martin Perez, Jon Gray or somebody else. Gray, for one, is someone I thought might play a little more of a role than he has in the ALCS, so maybe Game 7 will be his time.
Alden Gonzalez: That top of the ninth, when Adolis Garcia hit the grand slam that sent Astros fans filing for the exits, was one of the best things that could have happened for the Rangers — it meant Jose Leclerc didn’t have to return for the bottom half to record three more outs. It has become increasingly clear as this postseason has played out that Bochy doesn’t trust much of his bullpen. It was never more evident than in Game 6, when he had Eovaldi begin to tackle the Astros’ lineup a fourth time and then turned to Josh Sborz and Leclerc for the rest of the game (not even using Aroldis Chapman to face Yordan Alvarez). Leclerc and Sborz will probably be counted on heavily again in Game 7. And if the Rangers need a big out against Alvarez, it’ll be interesting to see whether Bochy turns to fellow lefty Jordan Montgomery, who started Game 5 — recording 16 outs and throwing 82 pitches — but could technically make a relief appearance rather than his typical between-starts bullpen session.
Buster Olney: It’s true, the circle of trust for Rangers manager Bruce Bochy seems to be small, and what occurred in Game 6 really sets him up well to respond if Scherzer struggles. If he needs to summon a reliever mid-inning, maybe he calls on Sborz. If he needs a reliever to face Kyle Tucker, maybe that’ll be Chapman. If he needs multiple innings, he could give Jordan Montgomery the ball at the start of an inning after Scherzer departs. And it seems Bochy will not hesitate to use Leclerc for three to six outs, either — and keep in mind that no manager has manipulated a bullpen with more success over the past 15 years than Bochy.
Can the Astros turn around their offensive woes at home?
Doolittle: They can — but their home offensive woes don’t really make any sense, so who knows? There are a lot of struggling hitters in Houston’s lineup right now, which makes it a lot easier to navigate if you can survive the Jose Altuve–Alex Bregman-Alvarez gauntlet. I’m guessing we’ll see a tight game that will be decided by two or three key sequences, as most postseason games are. But these being the Astros, would we really be shocked if they hang five runs on Scherzer right off the bat and roll on from there? I just don’t think Houston’s bizarre home-road inversion is anything more than an interesting fluke. Still, the way these teams are coming out of Game 6, the Rangers seem more explosive right now. Houston needs to change this narrative, whether it’s real or not.
Gonzalez: It’s more so about certain hitters getting right for the Astros — and nobody represents that better than Kyle Tucker, who will get some down-ballot MVP love this year but has struggled mightily throughout the postseason, with five hits in 35 at-bats and one RBI through 10 games. Tucker, Jeremy Pena and Martin Maldonado — the Nos. 6, 8 and 9 hitters in the Astros’ Game 6 lineup, respectively — have combined to slash .165/.277/.206 in these playoffs and have accumulated eight hits in 56 at-bats in this series, only two of them for extra bases. The Astros need more production from the bottom half of their lineup. But Tucker is the one who can change the dynamic of their offense. And one at-bat in Game 6 might have provided a window into his confidence at the moment. There were runners on first and second with none out, with the Astros trailing by two, and Tucker squared to bunt for a hit on the first pitch from Eovaldi, whom he had already seen twice. The next pitch produced a half-swing that resulted in a harmless ground out. This is far from the Tucker who surged through the summer — but it can turn at any minute.
Olney: Scherzer believes that his slider was better than portrayed in Game 3, but the bottom line is that if he does not have that pitch, he will be extremely vulnerable to the Houston hitters, who figure to be very aggressive against him. Regardless of Scherzer’s feel, the Rangers will be very wary of Altuve, Bregman and Alvarez, so there will likely be some opportunity for those who follow them: The key hitters in this lineup might turn out to be Jose Abreu and Tucker. Tucker has gotten some hits and drawn some walks in this series, but he hasn’t looked at all close to the sort of confident, dangerous hitter that he was during the regular season. As Dusty Baker has said, that could all change with one swing.
Week 4 is here as we dive into another weekend of college football madness.
The biggest story going into Saturday’s slate of games is if Arch Manning will get his first college start. After capturing the attention of fans, he’ll have a lot to live up to in the spotlight as Texas faces UL Monroe.
USC will be making an appearance at the Big House for the first time in over 60 years as its visit will kick off conference play for the Trojans. Elsewhere in the Big Ten, No. 24 Illinois visits No. 22 Nebraska where one Illinois receiver lives out a different version of a dream he once had.
Before all of this plays out, Appalachian State gets things started as it hosts South Alabama on Thursday.
Our college football experts give insight on players, sound and storylines going into Week 4.
Jump to a section:
Texas QB depth | Illinois’ Pat Bryant | Must needs to win
New conference enemy | Quotes of the week
Stacked QB rooms are nothing new at Texas
Todd Dodge has a unique vantage point to the hysteria around Arch Manning, who made a national splash in his first extensive playing time at Texas after starter and Heisman Trophy candidate Quinn Ewers sustained an oblique injury.
Dodge, a quarterback guru and legendary Texas high school coach with seven state championships — including three-peats at two different schools — lived in the burnt orange spotlight himself. As the first Texas high school quarterback to throw for more than 3,000 yards in a season in 1980, he was a star recruit for the Longhorns who started as a celebrity backup himself.
“The most popular guy in any college town is the No. 2 quarterback,” said Dodge, now the coach at Lovejoy High School in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. “I’ve been the No. 2 where I couldn’t buy my own dinner and everybody wanted to let me know how much they thought I ought to be playing. And I’ve been the No. 1 who’s played well, who was probably over-fawned-over and then I’ve been the No. 1 when the team lost and I didn’t play well and I’m the biggest bum in three counties.”
He said fans often assume a quarterback room is filled with jealousy or back-biting, but in his career, he has found it to be the opposite, which Steve Sarkisian reiterated Monday when he said nothing changes if Manning starts. The bond between Ewers and his backup is evident, Dodge said. And he is familiar with both players and their families, namely Ewers, because his son Riley, was Ewers’ head coach at Southlake Carroll.
“They’re very, very talented young men that both could be playing almost anywhere in the country, but the No. 2’s family [the Mannings] put tremendous value in development and patience,” he said. “To me, that takes a little bit of the angst off of me as the starter knowing that I don’t have a backup who’s out there just every waning minute trying to convince people that he ought to be the guy.”
Greg Davis, too, experienced the attention in his time in Austin. In 1998, Major Applewhite went 8-2 as the starter, was selected Big 12 Freshman of the Year, then Texas landed the No. 1 prospect in the country, Chris Simms, the well-pedigreed son of New York Giants legend Phil Simms. For the next three years, Simms and Applewhite both had their high points, and both served as co-starters. How do you manage that situation?
“Obviously you don’t live in a vacuum,” according to Davis, offensive coordinator under Mack Brown. “You’re aware of what they say in the grocery store.” Davis has ties to the Mannings himself. He recruited Eli alongside Simms, recruited Peyton at Arkansas and offered Arch’s dad, Cooper, when he was coaching at Tulane.
Davis said the pressure inside the building doesn’t come from attention or fans in the grocery store. It comes from picking the player who had the best chance to win. For Dodge, there’s no question, especially after seeing Ewers beat Oklahoma, then Alabama and Michigan in huge road victories.
“Gosh, all of us Texas fans are fired up about what Arch did the other day,” Dodge said. “But in the big picture, there’s a reason why Quinn Ewers is the starter. When you start having to face Georgia and people like that, well, it doesn’t mean that Arch Manning can’t have a bang-up game against a Georgia or an Alabama. It’s just that Quinn Ewers has already done it.” — Dave Wilson
Illinois’ Bryant dreams big after being molded through tragedy
Tattoos are filling up Pat Bryant’s body, memorializing those whose lives once ran parallel to his but diverged and ended far too soon.
Bryant, the star senior wide receiver for No. 24 Illinois, now has four tattoos honoring his friends from Jacksonville, Florida, who have died in recent years. One of the most painful came only two days after Bryant and the Illini played in the ReliaQuest Bowl in Tampa, when Bryant’s best friend, Alim Denson, nicknamed “Twin,” died while in prison.
“A lot of those guys, I grew up playing sports with, we all had the same dream,” Bryant said. “Being able to reach my dream, knowing they’re looking down on me, they’re very, very proud. Also, for the kids of the community, I want to show them that there’s more to life than gun violence, drugs. I just want to be a great role model for my community.”
Bryant, who leads Illinois with 235 receiving yards and four touchdowns this season, has contributed to a new community, far from home. He was named a team captain last month, as he prepared for his third season as a starter.
The 6-foot-3 Bryant received 33 scholarship offers in high school, including all the in-state schools, except the one he truly wanted, Florida, where both of his parents attended. Bryant committed to Illinois in June 2020, essentially sight unseen, during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.
But in mid-December, just before the end of a delayed and shortened season, Illinois fired coach Lovie Smith. The first high school signing day was just three days away. Wide receivers coach Andrew Hayes-Stoker called Bryant and encouraged him to sign anyway, which he did. Three days later, Illinois hired Bret Bielema to replace Smith.
When Bryant finally visited Champaign, there was some confusion.
“I flew in, thinking the University of Illinois was in Chicago,” Bryant said. “I get off the plane, we get in an Uber, they’re taking us to the dorm, and I’m just waiting to see the big skyline. And I see corn field after corn field. I was like, ‘There’s no way,’ but I adapted to where I was. Great college town.”
Bryant has built a strong connection to Champaign. Earlier this month, he and two teammates pooled their NIL earnings to donate backpacks and school supplies to local children. Bryant’s desire to give back stems in part from his father, Patrick, the athletic director of the Police Athletic League of Jacksonville, which places officers to help with youth sports programs around the city. Pat Jr. played basketball and flag football in the league.
“He’s been nothing but a class example of everything we believe in here,” Bielema said.
After seven touchdown catches in 2023, Bryant is on pace for a breakout season, which continues Friday night at No. 22 Nebraska. Bielema has received good reviews from NFL scouts on Bryant, who also excels with run blocking. Bryant’s path reminds Bielema of the Atlanta Falcons’ Casey Washington.
At a morning meeting after Illinois’ second win, Bielema recognized Bryant as the team’s top overall performer.
“He lives a routine every day that gives him an advantage,” Bielema said. “We talked about how he’s in the building by 5:15 a.m., he doesn’t have to be checked in by 6:30. It’s just an awesome thing to witness. He knows where he’s at, he knows how to take care of himself. Unfortunately, he’s had some tragedy in his life and it helps motivate him for the future.”
Bryant plays for Denson and the other friends he has lost, but he’s also focused on his current teammates.
“I feel like I have a powerful voice, I can relate to everyone on the team,” he said. “I feel people respect me, not only because of my game but because of the kind of person I am.” — Adam Rittenberg
What teams need to capitalize on to win
Utah: Any sort of analysis about this game for the Utes has to begin with the status of quarterback Cam Rising. There hasn’t been an official update about whether he will play, but it’s hard not to interpret the fact that he spoke to reporters this week about the game as an indicator he will be available — unless it’s an elaborate form of gamesmanship, which cannot be ruled out. After falling behind 14-3 to Utah State last week, the Utes were able to come back and win comfortably, but it’s important the Utes don’t follow that script again. Independent of whether Rising plays, the Utes are at their best when the running game does the heavy lifting, and it does not suit their strengths to go into catch-up mode. This is especially true against an explosive offense like Oklahoma State. The best-case scenario here for the Utes is if Rising plays, they establish Micah Bernard early and neutralize Ollie Gordon II to a reasonable degree. — Kyle Bonagura
Oklahoma State: With back-to-back games against Utah and Kansas State to begin the 2024 Big 12 slate, Oklahoma State is about to enter a season-defining stretch. What better way for the Cowboys to make a statement in the Big 12 title hunt than by figuring out the running game and unleashing reigning Doak Walker Award winner Gordon in Week 4?
Coach Mike Gundy says he’s “not concerned” about Oklahoma State’s start on the ground this seasos. But through Week 3, the Cowboys rank 105th in rushing among FBS offenses and Gordon is averaging 3.5 yards per carry, down from 6.1 in 2023 when Gordon finished seventh in Heisman Trophy voting. Oklahoma State leaned on its passing game to storm past Tulsa last Saturday when Gordon carried 17 times for just 41 yards. Relying so heavily on quarterback Alan Bowman won’t be as easy this weekend against Utah’s 26th-ranked pass defense. The Cowboys’ broader College Football Playoff aspirations probably hinge on finding a way to get Gordon and the run game going. Saturday against Utah is a good place for them to start. — Eli Lederman
Get to know your new conference enemy
With so much anticipation heading into this season about the new West Coast additions of the Big Ten playing matchups like this one, it’s hard to believe how much USC and Michigan have already switched roles.
The defending national champion has not looked the part after losing its head coach in Jim Harbaugh, but also plenty of talent on the field such as quarterback J.J. McCarthy and running back Blake Corum, among several others. After losing 31-12 to Texas at home and struggling on offense last week against Arkansas State, this isn’t exactly looking like the encore Wolverines fans envisioned.
Now, USC comes to town for its first marquee Big Ten game, looking far removed from the bitter end it had to the Caleb Williams era last year. After firing defensive coordinator Alex Grinch, Lincoln Riley revamped the defensive staff with former UCLA coordinator D’Anton Lynn, and after a statement win over LSU in the opener and a shutout of Utah State at home, the Trojans are coming off a bye week and look to be on the way up.
Despite any momentum USC might have, the concept of playing — and winning — a road game in the Big House looms large on any opponent, especially one that hasn’t been there since 1958. Though USC players keep harping on their improved physicality in the trenches being the deciding factor in this game, Riley has remained adamant over the past week that despite its struggles, Michigan is a really good team with NFL-caliber players. You can see how much he is trying to will his team to not view itself as the favorites, even if the odds say so.
“Everybody wants to write the story after a couple of games in the season for everyone,” Riley said this week. “And it’s a long season, man. That’s a good football team that we have a lot of respect for. To have anything less would be a mistake on our part.” — Paolo Uggetti
Quotes of the week
-
“Yeah, there’s an old quarterback from Muleshoe, Texas that’s going to come out of retirement, can see if his legs still got it,” Lincoln Riley, smiling, when asked if USC has someone on the scout team that can replicate what Michigan QB Alex Orji does on the ground. “No, we got a couple of guys that we’re trying to use a little bit. But he’s a really good athlete. I told people last night I was familiar with him. We recruited him a little bit coming out of high school, remember, I have a lot of respect for him as a player and an athlete.”
-
“I thought that they were trying to make it hard on us, to be honest with you,” Mike Gundy said Monday with Oklahoma State staring down back-to-back meetings against conference favorites Utah and Kansas State to open Big 12 play. “Commissioner [Brett Yormark] is my buddy, but he doesn’t do the scheduling. So, I’ve sent the wrong guy pecans for Christmas. I should’ve sent the scheduling guy pecans for Christmas.”
NEW YORK — Bryce Harper and the Philadelphia Phillies clinched their third consecutive playoff appearance Friday night with a 12-2 victory over the New York Mets.
Assured at least a National League wild card, the Phillies can secure their first NL East title since 2011 with one more win this weekend against the second-place Mets at Citi Field.
With the division crown so close, Philadelphia planned a mellow celebration following Friday night’s game — hoping to let loose soon with a boozy clubhouse bash after locking up first place.
Seeking their third World Series championship, the Phillies overtook Atlanta for the division lead on May 3 and haven’t trailed since. Their victory coupled with the Braves’ 4-3 loss in Miami eliminated Atlanta from contention for the NL East crown — ending its six-year reign atop the division.
Alec Bohm had four hits and four RBIs, including a three-run homer, in Friday night’s blowout. Nick Castellanos had three hits and two RBIs, J.T. Realmuto added a two-run homer and the Phillies extended their NL East lead to seven games over the second-place Mets (85-69) with eight to play.
Philadelphia stole five bases — four in a six-run fourth inning capped by Bohm’s homer off reliever Adam Ottavino. Johan Rojas had a two-run double off starter David Peterson (9-3), who was pulled after just 64 pitches and 3 2/3 innings — his shortest start of the season.
Cristopher Sanchez (11-9) overcame a shaky start and five walks in five innings for the win. Philadelphia outhit the Mets 17-4.
Philadelphia (92-62) has the best record in the major leagues and is on track for a first-round bye in the playoffs. It’s the third time the Phillies have reached the postseason three years in a row (1976-78 and 2007-11).
Philadelphia won five straight NL East titles from 2007-11, then went 10 years without making the playoffs. A wild-card entry each of the past two postseasons, the Phillies put together consecutive October runs that ended in heartbreak.
They reached the 2022 World Series, losing to Houston in six games, and dropped a seven-game NL Championship Series to Arizona last year after leading the underdog Diamondbacks 2-0 and 3-2.
So this time, the Phillies are looking to go all the way and finally finish the job.
Philadelphia’s only World Series championships came in 1980 and 2008.
Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.
-
Sports2 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports6 months agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports1 year agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports11 months agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Environment1 year agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Sports3 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Environment1 year agoTesla advances Powerwall pilot project with German electric company