‘Phenomenal’: LSU’s Jayden Daniels plays the game with reckless abandon
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Alex Scarborough, ESPN Staff Writer
BATON ROUGE, La. — In a scene that’s become all too familiar this season, LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels deftly escaped the pocket only to take off and run with reckless abandon, absorbing the type of body blows that make coaches and fans alike wince.
No, this wasn’t that cringeworthy hit against Florida State or that breathtaking hit against Ole Miss or that freight train of a hit against Mississippi State. This was the shot Daniels took on the road at Missouri, the one that finally knocked him out of the game. After corralling an errant snap, splitting two defenders and cutting upfield, he crossed the goal line for an apparent touchdown. But just as he relaxed and dropped his shoulders into a defenseless posture, linebacker Chuck Hicks came out of nowhere and drilled him squarely in the back and tackled him to the ground.
As tight end Mason Taylor pleaded with officials for a personal foul, Daniels popped up quickly and tried to play it off. But he felt a sharp pain in his ribs growing more acute by the second. Unsteady on his feet, he tapped his helmet to signal he needed a substitution. He fell to a knee about 10 yards short of the sideline, where a pair of trainers huddled around him.
“It’s a TV timeout,” the trainers advised him. “You’ve got time.”
“Nah,” Daniels said. “I’ve got to get off this field.”
If he was going to get looked at, it wasn’t going to be in full view of everyone in the opposing stadium. Best not to let them see him vulnerable.
As he was helped to the privacy of the medical tent, coach Brian Kelly checked on his star QB.
“You good?” Kelly asked. “Can you finish the game?”
“Give me a minute,” Daniels said. “I just need a minute.”
Inside the tent, while his ribs were being examined, Daniels noticed his left hand was swollen. That was new, he thought. “I think it got hit by a helmet,” he said, unsure of when the injury occurred. The trainers asked if he was OK, and he didn’t hesitate. “Yeah,” he told them, “I need to go back out there.”
Backup quarterback Garrett Nussmeier had finished out the series, which continued because of a false start penalty that negated Daniels’ touchdown and ended with a missed field goal. After Missouri went three-and-out, Daniels went back in the game. Four plays later, he threw a strike to Malik Nabers for a 35-yard reception. Every little movement stung, though he tried not to let it show. Throwing the football, he said, “hurt a lot.”
But on third-and-3, Daniels took one step backward, planted his back leg on the Missouri 40-yard line and took off. Bruised ribs and aching hand be damned, he knifed through the front seven, past a hapless linebacker, past a sprinting safety and ran untouched until he was tackled while falling into the end zone to give LSU its first lead of the game.
“I could feel the pain in the moment,” Daniels recalled, “but I had to help my team win.”
LSU did win as Daniels completed 15 of 21 passes for 259 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. He also ran for 130 yards and a score. Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz found Daniels on the field after the game, gave him a hug and tapped his helmet in a sign of respect. When he met with reporters later, Drinkwitz said Daniels is “as good as any quarterback I’ve ever gone against.”
Kelly handed Daniels the game ball in the locker room and called him a “warrior” a year after wondering if Daniels, at a slender 190 pounds, could handle the job.
The challenge ahead is twofold, beginning with a trip to Alabama on Saturday (7:45 p.m. ET, CBS). The outcome will likely determine LSU’s future as a playoff contender and Daniels’ status as a Heisman Trophy front-runner.
To reach those tandem goals, Daniels will have to keep posting show-stopping numbers and keep getting up after show-stopping hits.
“They’re the No. 1 offensive team in the country and it starts with the quarterback, Jayden Daniels,” Alabama coach Nick Saban said Monday. “I mean, this guy is a phenomenal player.”
KELLY INITIALLY HAD his doubts about Daniels, whether it was his durability or his decision-making. Kelly said they brought Daniels in from Arizona State and weren’t exactly sold that “he’s our guy.”
They weren’t sure he’d beat out Nussmeier for the starting job. When Daniels injured his foot shortly after arriving on campus, Kelly groaned, “Oh, he’s from the West Coast. He’s not very tough.”
Kelly smiled thinking back on that moment. He has never been so happy to be proved wrong.
Kelly said last year’s game between LSU and Alabama provided a sample of what Daniels was capable of.
Daniels remembers standing on the sideline inside Tiger Stadium and watching what seemed impossible as Alabama quarterback Bryce Young followed the five D’s of dodgeball: dodge, duck, dip, dive and dodge. The reigning Heisman Trophy winner at the time looked like Houdini as he escaped the LSU pass rush and found a wide-open Ja’Corey Brooks for the go-ahead score with less than five minutes left in the fourth quarter.
Then, Daniels said, Young turned toward the LSU sideline and smirked.
A year later, Daniels remembers it clear as day. The defining moment of the game and that season wasn’t the touchdown and 2-point conversion later in overtime, he said, it was the drive LSU put together in response to Young’s heroics: a methodical seven-play, 75-yard march in less than three minutes, featuring a 31-yard run by Daniels to extend the drive on third down and a 7-yard touchdown pass to retake the lead.
Daniels relished the chance to be a part of what he’d only dreamed of as a kid — Alabama-LSU, at night, in prime time. “Those are the big moments,” he said.
After the game, Daniels and Young spoke. The Southern California natives have known one another since they were in elementary school, competing in youth games and camps. “You know,” Daniels said of last spring’s No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft, “he’s never beaten me.”
LSU’s 1-point victory over Alabama catapulted the Tigers to the SEC championship game. No one — especially not Kelly — is saying that Daniels was anything other than good during his first season at LSU. He threw for just shy of 3,000 yards, 17 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions. And he ran for a team-high 885 yards. He threw the most catchable ball in the country (83% catchable pass rate).
But he rarely took shots downfield, ranking 103rd in rate of pass attempts 20-plus yards downfield (10.6%).
The lack of explosive plays was a drag on the offense.
During a practice before this season, Kelly said, he pulled Daniels aside.
“This drill,” he told his quarterback, “is set up for you to be aggressive and to make those tough throws. Don’t be afraid to put it into tight coverage. Don’t be afraid to make that throw that is being contested.”
Kelly wanted Daniels to trust his eyes, his arm and his receivers.
“For some reason, everything had to be wide open or it wasn’t open at all,” Kelly said.
Nabers admitted he got frustrated with Daniels’ careful nature as well. The team’s No. 1 receiver recalled another practice this summer when he couldn’t get Daniels to look his way.
“Bro,” Nabers told Daniels, “just throw it up.”
Daniels told Nabers he wasn’t open, and he wasn’t technically wrong. Nabers was garnering a lot of double coverage.
“I don’t care. Just throw it up,” Nabers told him. “They look like they’re beside me, but I’m getting past them.”
Nabers said they watched film together that evening and Nabers pointed out how he was, in fact, pulling away from the defensive backs as the play developed. Nabers said Daniels relented, “All right, I’m going to give you some chances.”
The defense still double-covered Nabers during the next day’s practice, but this time Daniels gave him a chance.
“And he was launching them and I was jumping over people and just making plays,” Nabers recalled, smiling. “I was like, ‘Bro, I told you.'”
Nabers sat in the corner of LSU’s indoor facility last week, looked out on the practice field and reminisced. Because Daniels joined the team so late last year — the day before spring practice — and he wasn’t named the starting quarterback until September, Nabers said they didn’t have the time they needed to get on the same page. But this offseason was different.
They spent so many early mornings out here, Nabers said, running through the entire route tree. Countless reps. Countless conversations. Daniels and his receivers learned about one another over the course of months — on the field and off it. And the result was a combination of chemistry and trust that’s paying off today.
But there was another piece that went into Daniels’ transformation this season. Rarely does a quarterback go from being timid to decisive.
Preparation, Daniels said, has been the key.
IT COULDN’T HAVE been later than 6 a.m., Kelly recalled, noting that the sun hadn’t risen by the time he pulled up to the football facility the morning after the Week 6 Missouri game. As he parked his matte black Tesla, Kelly looked around the mostly empty lot and noticed Daniels’ car.
Checking to make sure Daniels hadn’t left it there the night before, Kelly walked to the quarterback room, where he found Daniels in his own world, watching film.
Daniels not only skipped sleeping off his injuries, he beat almost the entire coaching staff to the office.
“OK,” Kelly said he thought, “this is a little different.”
Kelly said it’s the first time he has ever been surprised like that. And, he added, it’s a credit to the habits Daniels developed this season. It’s like clockwork. Daniels comes in early every morning, watches film on his own and then spends a few hours in the training room before most of his teammates have even started their day. From there, it’s on to practice and then back home.
“He is a pro,” Kelly said. “Everything he does, a pro would do it the same way.”
True to his routine, Daniels was back in the quarterback room on a Wednesday morning during the bye week. A graphic of a pointing Joe Burrow looming large over his right shoulder, Daniels sat down, shut the lights off and began scribbling notes as a recording of the Alabama-Tennessee game played on the projector. It took half the season to fill up his notebook, he said, so he switched to an iPad for more storage.
He put his pen down and gripped a football with both hands as he spoke to a reporter. The light from the projector illuminated the embossed words on the worn leather: “National Football League.”
Yes, Daniels said, he thought long and hard about turning pro after last season. He spent about a week and a half deliberating the pros and cons. Five years of college had seemed like more than enough. But he knew the quarterback class was going to be crowded. Young and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud would be the first two quarterbacks off the board — “and rightfully so,” he said. While he believed he was just as talented as them, Daniels acknowledged that not everyone felt the same way.
“It wasn’t my time yet,” he said. “It was best for me to come back as one of the few returning starters in the SEC. So it was like, ‘OK, I’m going to come back and not live with any regrets.'”
Kelly didn’t take the decision for granted.
“I thought we had to show him the plan,” he said. “I thought if we didn’t recruit him, if we didn’t show him why we felt it was important for him to be here, if we didn’t open up avenues for NIL, if we didn’t do those things, I think it could have made it easier for him to go.”
Kelly paused for a moment when asked whether Daniels is making more money now than he would have as a rookie in the NFL.
“Yes,” he said.
Daniels acknowledged that NIL made his choice to come back easier, but that it wasn’t the end-all, be-all. He knew he had room to improve if he was going to leave no doubt that he was worthy of a high draft pick. “I wanted to take my game to the next level,” he said.
So he changed his practice habits, getting in early each day. He also incorporated virtual reality training, donning a headset three times a week to get a better feel for the defenses that he’ll face and the look and feel of opposing stadiums.
He did some serious self-scouting as well, he said. And what he found was that while he could recognize the coverage and spot the open receiver, he was too hesitant.
“It’s a mental battle,” he said. “My preparation, that’s what made me confident. Last year, I was thinking a lot while I was playing. This year, I just wanted to go out there, play football, just play fast and have fun.”
Daniels has made a Burrow-esque Year 2 leap. He’s tied for the FBS lead in touchdown passes (25) — despite throwing only three interceptions — and ranks second in Total QBR (91.8). His rate of passes thrown 20 or more yards downfield per game has gone up from 10.6 to 14.9; no one has more completions of 20-plus yards this season (49).
If he’d turned pro and spent the year as a backup, he might never have gotten the reps needed to develop a more well-rounded game. In conversations with scouts, Kelly said he has told them, “You won’t have to worry about who’s first in, who’s last to leave, the tone in your locker room. You already have a pro.”
DANIELS BROKE INTO the open field against Auburn and decided, now’s the time.
He was going to show Nussmeier and the rest of the quarterbacks they were wrong about his inability to slide. But to quote the immortal Woody in “Toy Story,” what happened next wasn’t exactly a textbook slide. It was more like Daniels was “falling with style.”
“I turn to the sideline and everybody’s cheering,” Daniels recalled.
But they were laughing, too.
“It was awful,” Kelly said.
He asked Daniels whether he’d played baseball before. Daniels shook his head no.
“It looks like it,” Kelly told him.
So maybe he slides differently than most people, Daniels said, “but it’s effective.”
“It still worked out the same way,” he added. “I still pop right back up.”
True. But Kelly and the rest of the coaches are glad he’s at least making an effort to get down and protect himself from those big hits. They marvel how, given his slight frame, he keeps popping back up. A staff member compared him to Gumby — you can’t break bones that aren’t there.
Strength and conditioning staffers have told Kelly that although Daniels — standing 6-foot-4 — weighs only about 190 pounds, his body density is close to 170.
“He just needs to take what’s available and then be smart,” Kelly said. “I think he’s more aware of it now, and hopefully he’ll continue to make a better choice than getting cut in half.”
Daniels knows it’s a long season and he needs to protect himself.
“If we want to accomplish what we need to accomplish,” he said, “I need to be healthy.”
But just as he has to be unafraid in the passing game, he can’t be timid tucking the ball and running. He can’t help that he’s hardwired to fight for extra yards. It’s a product, he said, of playing defense growing up.
“I’ve always been a fearless runner,” he said. “Even though I’m a quarterback now, I was never afraid of contact.”
As a kid, he played in the streets of San Bernardino, California, where he said the rule was if it’s not broken, “shake it off.” After you get over the initial shock of a big hit, he added, the pain is usually manageable.
“He’s a tough kid,” Kelly said. “Tougher than I ever thought he was.”
The team, in turn, feeds off that toughness.
“I don’t know what he’s been throughout his life, but when you come to Louisiana, we’re different,” Nabers said. “When we play football, we don’t care. We don’t care if we got a bump or bruise. We don’t care if we got a hurt ankle, we’re going to get back up and we still keep going. So I think that he found his Louisiana way. That’s him showing that, ‘I’m from Cali, but I’m in The Boot now.'”
No one appreciates it more than Nabers when Daniels hangs in the pocket and throws passes deep downfield. But he’s no different from the rest of us when Daniels flees the pocket. He becomes a fan. He said he’ll catch himself thinking, “Oh, he’s breaking out, he’s juking, he just broke a tackle.”
“He’ll be flying,” Nabers said, forgetting that he needs to transition into a blocker.
And then Daniels runs into traffic, and Nabers is a fan all over again — this time a concerned one. He’ll find himself shouting, “Dude, go down, go down.”
“Damn,” he said, thinking back to one of those midair collisions, “that’s got to hurt.
“He said it doesn’t hurt. But I’m like, ‘Yeah, but one of them will.'”
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Mark Schlabach
ATLANTA — Ohio State’s high-powered offense proved to be too much for Notre Dame in the Buckeyes’ 34-23 victory in Monday’s national title game.
The Buckeyes captured their first national title in 10 years and first under coach Ryan Day. It was the school’s seventh national championship overall.
Even with Ohio State having a boatload of players who are expected to move on and be chosen in April’s NFL draft, the Buckeyes are No. 1 in ESPN’s Way-Too-Early Top 25 for 2025.
The Buckeyes will still have star players, such as receiver Jeremiah Smith and safety Caleb Downs, and they’ll plug holes with another top recruiting class and group of transfers.
Ohio State will be looking for a new quarterback as well, but it won’t be alone among the potential CFP contenders. Notre Dame, Texas, Georgia, Oregon and others will be developing new signal-callers, too.
Here’s the 2025 ESPN Way-Too-Early Top 25:
2024 record: 14-2, 7-2 Big Ten
Key returning players: WR Jeremiah Smith, WR Carnell Tate, S Caleb Downs
Key losses: RB TreVeyon Henderson, WR Emeka Egbuka, QB Will Howard, G Donovan Jackson, LB Cody Simon, S Lathan Ransom, DE Jack Sawyer, DE JT Tuimoloau, CB Denzel Burke
2025 outlook: After winning the program’s third national championship since 2002, the Buckeyes are going to undergo a bit of a makeover — but so are most of the other Big Ten contenders. The core group of seniors who came back in 2024 — led by Sawyer, Henderson, Egbuka and others — will be missed. Julian Sayin, a five-star prospect who transferred from Alabama, will probably be QB1 after Devin Brown and Air Noland entered the transfer portal. Sayin will have the luxury of throwing to Smith, the best receiver in the FBS, and the Buckeyes picked up tailback CJ Donaldson (West Virginia) and tight end Max Klare (Purdue) from the portal. Ohio State’s offense will be even better if RB Quinshon Judkins decides to come back. Some younger players will have to step up on the defensive line and in the secondary, but at least Downs is coming back.
2024 record: 13-3, 7-1 SEC
Key returning players: QB Arch Manning, RB Quintrevion Wisner, LB Anthony Hill Jr., DE Colin Simmons, DE Trey Moore, S Michael Taaffe
Key losses: QB Quinn Ewers, WR Matthew Golden, OT Kelvin Banks Jr., OT Cameron Williams, S Andrew Mukuba, CB Jahdae Barron, TE Gunnar Helm
2025 outlook: In their first season in the SEC, the Longhorns more than proved they were good enough to compete, reaching the SEC title game and CFP semifinals. With Ewers moving on, the highly anticipated Manning era will kick off in 2025. The Longhorns will have to rebuild their offensive line and replace some key receivers, including Golden and Isaiah Bond. There are big losses up front, with Banks, Williams, center Jake Majors and guard Hayden Conner departing. There’s a good nucleus returning on defense, led by linebackers Hill and Simmons, but three of the top four defensive backs are leaving. The Longhorns added linebacker Brad Spence (Arkansas) and defensive linemen Cole Brevard (Purdue) and Travis Shaw (North Carolina) from the portal. Texas opens the season Aug. 30 at Ohio State, a big early test for Manning.
2024 record: 13-3, 8-1 Big Ten
Key returning players: QB Drew Allar, RB Kaytron Allen, RB Nicholas Singleton, C Nick Dawkins, DE Dani Dennis-Sutton, S Zakee Wheatley, CB A.J. Harris
Key losses: DE Abdul Carter, TE Tyler Warren, S Jaylen Reed, G Sal Wormley, DT Dvon J-Thomas, LB Kobe King
2025 outlook: With Allar, Allen and Singleton returning, the Nittany Lions might get a senior boost like Ohio State did in 2024. Penn State came up short against Notre Dame in a CFP semifinal game at the Orange Bowl, but it was coach James Franklin’s best season. If Allar can take another step as a passer, and Franklin can find him some capable receivers, the Nittany Lions might be even better on offense in 2025. Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans, the team’s two top receivers in 2024, entered the transfer portal. Penn State added Troy’s Devonte Ross, who caught 76 passes for 1,034 yards with 11 touchdowns in 2024, and USC’s Kyron Hudson. Carter and King are big losses on defense, and so is former coordinator Tom Allen, who left for Clemson. The Nittany Lions host Oregon and Indiana in Happy Valley and play at Ohio State on Nov. 1.
2024 record: 14-2
Key returning players: RB Jeremiyah Love, RB Jadarian Price, WR Jordan Faison, WR Jaden Greathouse, LB Drayk Bowen, S Adon Shuler
Key losses: QB Riley Leonard, TE Mitchell Evans, DT Rylie Mills, S Xavier Watts, CB Benjamin Morrison, LB Jack Kiser, DT Howard Cross III
2025 outlook: With two solid coordinators and vastly improved recruiting, the Fighting Irish seem to be only scratching the surface under dynamic head coach Marcus Freeman. The Irish recovered from a shocking early loss to Northern Illinois at home to reach the CFP National Championship game. They’ll miss Leonard’s leadership, but the coaching staff is excited about freshman CJ Carr, the grandson of former Michigan coach Lloyd Carr, who was rated the No. 2 pocket passer in the 2024 recruiting class by ESPN. He battled an elbow injury on his throwing arm this past season. Backup Steve Angeli will compete with Carr for the job. There’s plenty of depth coming back on the offensive line, along with Love and tailback Jadarian Price. The Irish could use more game-changing receivers — they added Malachi Fields (Virginia) and Will Pauling (Wisconsin) from the portal. A few key players will have to be replaced on defense, and tackles Jared Dawson (Louisville) and Elijah Hughes (USC) and safeties DeVonta Smith (Alabama) and Jalen Stroman (Virginia Tech) should help fill some holes.
2024 record: 11-3, 6-2 SEC
Key returning players: QB Gunner Stockton, RB Nate Frazier, TE Oscar Delp, TE Lawson Luckie, LB CJ Allen, LB Raylen Wilson, S KJ Bolden, CB Daylen Everette
Key losses: QB Carson Beck, G Tate Ratledge, RB Trevor Etienne, LB Jalon Walker, S Malaki Starks, S Dan Jackson, LB Smael Mondon Jr., DE Mykel Williams
2025 outlook: The Bulldogs seemed a bit disjointed throughout much of the 2024 season, but they still won an SEC championship and reached the CFP for the fourth time in the past eight seasons. Stockton played well in his first start, a 23-10 loss to Notre Dame in the CFP quarterfinals. He will go into the offseason as the front-runner to replace Beck, who left for Miami. Georgia has to do a better job of blocking up front, catching the football and tackling on defense. It’s time for Kirby Smart to get back to the basics. The Bulldogs added former Texas A&M receiver Noah Thomas and USC receiver/kick returner Zachariah Branch from the portal. Safeties Jaden Harris (Miami) and Adrian Maddox (UAB) were important pickups with Starks and Jackson leaving. Georgia’s schedule won’t be quite as hard as it was in 2024, but the team still plays Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas at home and Tennessee, Auburn, Florida (in Jacksonville, Florida) and Georgia Tech on the road.
2024 record: 13-1, 9-0 Big Ten
Key returning players: WR Evan Stewart, LB Devon Jackson, LB Teitum Tuioti, LB Matayo Uiagalelei, RB Noah Whittington, C Iapani Laloulu
Key losses: QB Dillon Gabriel, WR Tez Johnson, WR Traeshon Holden, RB Jordan James, OT Josh Conerly Jr., OT Ajani Cornelius, DE Jordan Burch, DT Derrick Harmon, CB Jabbar Muhammad
2025 outlook: The Ducks went 13-0 and captured a Big Ten title in their first season in the league. But their dream season came to a crashing halt with an ugly 41-21 loss to Ohio State in the CFP quarterfinals. Now, Oregon coach Dan Lanning faces a massive rebuilding job on both sides of the ball. But with a No. 1 recruiting class and a few transfer portal pickups on the way, there’s reason to believe the Ducks won’t fall too far. Former five-star prospect Dante Moore, who redshirted in 2024 after transferring to UCLA, is the favorite to replace Gabriel. Stewart’s return is a boost, and receiver Dakorien Moore of Duncanville, Texas, was the jewel of Oregon’s recruiting class. The Ducks are going to need plenty of young players to step up on defense, with only a few starters returning.
2024 record: 10-4, 7-1 ACC
Key returning players: QB Cade Klubnik, WR Antonio Williams, WR Bryant Wesco Jr., LB Sammy Brown, LB Wade Woodaz, DL T.J. Parker, DL Peter Woods, OT Blake Miller
Key losses: RB Phil Mafah, LB Barrett Carter, S R.J. Mickens, TE Jake Briningstool, G Marcus Tate, DL Payton Page
2025 outlook: Maybe Clemson coach Dabo Swinney is doing it the right way, and we were all wrong. Swinney caught plenty of flak for not utilizing the transfer portal after his team’s ugly 34-3 loss to Georgia in the opener. However, the Tigers rebounded to win another ACC title and reach the CFP. They’ll undoubtedly be the team to beat in the league in 2025, with Klubnik, Williams, Woodaz, Parker, Woods and Miller all electing to return for another season. With Williams, Wesco and T.J. Moore coming back, Clemson’s passing game might be even better. Finding a No. 1 tailback, after Mafah’s eligibility ended and Jay Haynes tore his ACL in the ACC championship game, will be a priority in the spring. The defense will have a new leader after Swinney fired coordinator Wes Goodwin and replaced him with Penn State’s Tom Allen. And guess what? Clemson signed three players from the portal: edge rushers Jeremiah Alexander (Alabama) and Will Heldt (Purdue) and receiver Tristan Smith (Southeast Missouri State).
2024 record: 9-4, 5-3 SEC
Key returning players: QB Garrett Nussmeier, RB Caden Durham, WR Aaron Anderson, LB Whit Weeks, CB Ashton Stamps, LB Harold Perkins Jr., S Jardin Gilbert
Key losses: WR Kyren Lacy, WR CJ Daniels, OT Will Campbell, OT Emery Jones Jr., TE Mason Taylor, G Garrett Dellinger, G Miles Frazier, LB Greg Penn III, DE Bradyn Swinson
2025 outlook: After the Tigers lost at least three games for the third straight season under Brian Kelly, they seem to be all-in heading into 2025. LSU added more than a dozen players from the transfer portal, including defensive ends Patrick Payton (Florida State) and Jack Pyburn (Florida), receivers Nic Anderson (Oklahoma) and Barion Brown (Kentucky), offensive linemen Braelin Moore (Virginia Tech) and Josh Thompson (Northwestern) and cornerback Mansoor Delane (Virginia Tech). Nussmeier threw for 4,043 yards with 29 touchdowns this past season, and his return might give LSU an edge over other SEC contenders. Rebuilding the offensive line and shoring up a defense that surrendered 24.3 points per game will be areas of focus in the offseason. It has to be better in 2025, right?
2024 record: 11-2, 7-2 Big 12
Key returning players: QB Jake Retzlaff, RB LJ Martin, WR Chase Roberts, WR/KR Keelan Marion, LB Harrison Taggart, LB Isaiah Glasker, LB Jack Kelly, S Tanner Wall
Key losses: CB Jakob Robinson, DE Tyler Batty, DE Isaiah Bagnah, CB Marque Collins, S Crew Wakley, OT Brayden Keim, C Connor Pay
2025 outlook: If the 2024 season was any indication, you could probably pick any of four teams (or more) to win a Big 12 title. Arizona State, BYU and Colorado were unlikely contenders this past season, and the Cougars are bringing back top playmakers Retzlaff, Martin, Roberts and Marion. There are a couple of starters who will have to be replaced on the offensive line, but reinforcements from the transfer portal should help. On defense, four of the top five tacklers should return, although BYU will have to reload up front. Kalani Sitake has built a solid program that should contend in the Big 12 each season. The Cougars won’t play Arizona State or Kansas State during the regular season, and road games at Iowa State and Colorado might be tricky.
2024 record: 9-4, 5-3 SEC
Key returning players: QB LaNorris Sellers, WR Mazeo Bennett Jr., LT Josiah Thompson, S Jalon Kilgore, DE Dylan Stewart, DE Bryan Thomas Jr., S DQ Smith
Key losses: S Nick Emmanwori, DT T.J. Sanders, DE Kyle Kennard, LB Debo Williams, LB Demetrius Knight Jr., G Kamaar Bell, C Vershon Lee, G Torricelli Simpkins III, RB Raheim Sanders
2025 outlook: After a bounce-back campaign in which the Gamecocks won four more games than in 2023 — including victories over Texas A&M, Missouri and Clemson — they’ll have to replace the heart and soul of their defense this offseason. There are big personnel losses at all three levels, including Sanders and Kennard up front and Emmanwori on the back end. Three additions from the portal — defensive tackle Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy (Texas A&M), LB Shawn Murphy (Florida State) and end Jaylen Brown (Missouri) — might be able to help. Sellers will be working under new offensive coordinator Mike Shula, and improving his pocket presence and consistency will be a priority. Rahsul Faison, who ran for 1,109 yards with eight touchdowns at Utah State in 2024, will get a chance to replace leading rusher Sanders. If Sellers improves, the Gamecocks might be an even bigger surprise in 2025.
2024 record: 11-3, 7-2 Big 12
Key returning players: QB Rocco Becht, RB Carson Hansen, RB Abu Sama III, LB Kooper Ebel, S Jeremiah Cooper, CB Jontez Williams, DL Domonique Orange, LB Caleb Bacon, TE Benjamin Brahmer
Key losses: WR Jaylin Noel, WR Jayden Higgins, C Jarrod Hufford, OT Jalen Travis, S Beau Freyler, DE Joey Petersen, DT J.R. Singleton, CB Myles Purchase, S Malik Verdon, CB Darien Porter
2025 outlook: After one of the best seasons in program history (the Cyclones had never won 10 games or more), there’s one goal left for Matt Campbell to achieve — win the program’s first conference title in 113 years. With Becht and two good tailbacks returning, Iowa State has some firepower returning on offense. But it will greatly miss Noel and Higgins, who each caught at least 80 passes with more than 1,100 yards in 2024. Iowa State is bringing in transfer receivers Xavier Townsend (UCF) and Chase Sowell (East Carolina). A few key contributors are leaving on defense, but much of one of the better secondaries in the FBS is coming back. The Cyclones play Kansas State in Dublin, Ireland, to open the season and will host BYU and Arizona State at home.
2024 record: 9-4, 5-3 SEC
Key returning players: RB Jam Miller, WR Ryan Williams, WR Germie Bernard, C Parker Brailsford, OT Kadyn Proctor, DE LT Overton, LB Justin Jefferson, CB Zabien Brown
Key losses: QB Jalen Milroe, LB Jihaad Campbell, G Tyler Booker, S Malachi Moore, LB Que Robinson, DT Tim Smith
2025 outlook: The Crimson Tide’s first season under coach Kalen DeBoer was frustrating for Alabama fans, who had grown accustomed to Nick Saban’s consistency over the previous 16 seasons. The Tide lost more than three games in a season for the first time since Saban’s first campaign in 2007. Given DeBoer’s track record of success, expect a second-year leap in the SEC — but maybe not back into CFP title contention quite yet. Replacing Milroe will be a focus in the spring; Ty Simpson, onetime Washington transfer Austin Mack and five-star prospect Keelon Russell will battle for the job. The offensive line has a couple of holes to plug, but the receiver corps should be great with Williams and Bernard returning.
2024 record: 10-3, 6-3 Big Ten
Key returning players: QB Luke Altmyer, RB Aidan Laughery, OT J.C. Davis, C Josh Kreutz, CB Xavier Scott, LB Gabe Jacas, LB Dylan Rosiek, SS Matthew Bailey, FS Miles Scott, RB Josh McCray
Key losses: WR Pat Bryant, WR Zakhari Franklin, NT TeRah Edwards, DE Dennis Briggs Jr., LB Seth Coleman
2025 outlook: The Illini are coming off a breakthrough year under coach Bret Bielema, producing the program’s first 10-win season since the 2001 squad went 10-2 and played in the Sugar Bowl. Now, the challenge is putting together back-to-back successful seasons — Illinois hasn’t had consecutive winning campaigns since going 7-6 in 2010 and 2011. All of the pieces are there for the Illini to run it back in 2025, especially after Davis, Scott and others decided to return. Bryant and Franklin will be missed on the perimeter. Bielema added West Virginia’s leading receiver, Hudson Clement, and Ball State’s Justin Bowick from the portal. All five starters are coming back on the offensive line. The Illini surrendered 21.7 points per game in 2024, but they should be better with so many starters returning. Illinois plays three difficult road games at Indiana, Washington and Wisconsin, and hosts USC and Ohio State at home.
2024 record: 11-3, 7-2 Big 12
Key returning players: QB Sam Leavitt, WR Jordyn Tyson, RB Kyson Brown, S Myles Rowser, S Xavion Alford, LB Keyshaun Elliott, LB Jordan Crook, CB Javan Robinson, DE Clayton Smith
Key losses: RB Cam Skattebo, WR Xavier Guillory, LB Caleb McCullough, S Shamari Simmons, C Leif Fautanu
2025 outlook: There’s no question the Sun Devils are going to face an uphill climb in replacing Skattebo’s production on offense. Not only did the All-America running back pile up 1,711 yards with 21 touchdowns on the ground, but he had 605 receiving yards and even threw for a score. Kanye Udoh, who ran for 1,117 yards with 10 touchdowns at Army last season, should be first in line to replace Skattebo. ASU brings back some key players in Leavitt and Tyson, who were outstanding in their first seasons in the desert. Cornerbacks Nyland Green (Purdue) and Adrian Wilson (Washington State) might help shore up a secondary that ranked 81st against the pass (226.7 yards) in 2024.
2024 record: 11-3, 8-0 ACC
Key returning players: QB Kevin Jennings, S Isaiah Nwokobia, G Logan Parr, OT Savion Byrd, OT PJ Williams, S Ahmaad Moses, CB Jaelyn Davis-Robinson
Key losses: RB Brashard Smith, DL Jared Harrison-Hunte, C Jakai Clark, DE Elijah Roberts, LB Kobe Wilson, WR Key’Shawn Smith
2025 outlook: After reaching the ACC title game and the CFP in their first season in the league, the Mustangs will have plenty of work to do in the offseason to get back into contention. The good news is that quarterback Jennings, despite a rough performance in a 38-10 loss to Penn State in a CFP first-round game, is returning. The bad news: There are plenty of playmakers on both sides of the ball departing. Leading rusher Brashard Smith, leading receivers Roderick Daniels Jr. and Key’Shawn Smith, and top defensive linemen Roberts and Harrison-Hunte are all departing. SMU coach Rhett Lashlee is bringing in at least a dozen new players through the portal — quarterback Tyler Van Dyke (Wisconsin), center Addison Nichols (Arkansas) and defensive end DJ Warner (Kansas) are among the most notable.
2024 record: 9-4, 5-4 Big 12
Key returning players: QB Avery Johnson, RB Dylan Edwards, WR Jayce Brown, TE Garrett Oakley, C Sam Hecht, LB Austin Romaine, S VJ Payne, LB Desmond Purnell
Key losses: RB DJ Giddens, WR Keagan Johnson, OT Easton Kilty, DE Brendan Mott, LB Austin Moore, S Marques Sigle, CB Jacob Parrish
2025 outlook: The Wildcats won at least nine games for the third straight season in 2024, and their record would have been better if not for dropping three of their last four regular-season games. Johnson is back after piling up 3,317 yards of offense with 32 scores. Replacing Giddens won’t be easy, but onetime Colorado player Edwards ran for 546 yards last season. Brown’s decision to return bolsters the receiver corps, which added Jerand Bradley (Boston College), Jaron Tibbs (Purdue) and Caleb Medford (New Mexico). Mott, Moore and Sigle were key players on defense. Cornerback Amarion Fortenberry (South Alabama), safety Gunner Maldonado (Arizona) and edge player Jayshawn Ross (Alabama) were intriguing pickups from the portal. Kansas State opens the season against Iowa State in Dublin, Ireland, and plays Army at home.
2024 record: 11-2, 8-1 Big Ten
Key returning players: WR Elijah Sarratt, WR Omar Cooper Jr., OT Carter Smith, G Drew Evans, LB Aiden Fisher, CB D’Angelo Ponds, S Amare Ferrell, DE Mikail Kamara
Key losses: QB Kurtis Rourke, RB Justice Ellison, TE Zach Horton, C Mike Katic, LB Jailin Walker, S Shawn Asbury II, NT CJ West, DT James Carpenter
2025 outlook: Fresh off the greatest season in the 126-year history of the Indiana program, in which the Hoosiers won more than nine games for the first time and reached the CFP, coach Curt Cignetti is trying to reload through the transfer portal again. The Hoosiers are bringing in nearly 20 transfers, led by former Cal quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who threw for 3,004 yards with 16 touchdowns and six interceptions in 2024. Tailback Lee Beebe Jr. (UAB), receiver Makai Jackson (Appalachian State) and tight end Holden Staes (Tennessee) were important additions on offense as well. Defensively, the Hoosiers have good production returning at linebacker and cornerback. Kamara’s return gives them a pass-rushing threat, and defensive tackles Hosea Wheeler (Western Kentucky) and Dominique Ratcliff (Texas State) could fill holes in the interior line. Indiana’s nonconference schedule is soft (Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and FCS program Indiana State at home), and it’ll play Big Ten road games at Iowa, Oregon and Penn State.
2024 record: 8-5, 4-4 SEC
Key returning players: C Jake Slaughter, LT Austin Barber, QB DJ Lagway, RB Jadan Baugh, RB Ja’Kobi Jackson, WR Eugene Wilson III, TE Hayden Hansen DE Tyreak Sapp, DE George Gumbs Jr.
Key losses: LB Shemar James, WR Elijhah Badger, WR Chimere Dike. RB Montrell Johnson Jr.. DT Cam Jackson, QB Graham Mertz. P Jeremy Crawshaw, CB Jason Marshall Jr.
2025 outlook: Florida coach Billy Napier likes to say that momentum matters in college football, and his Gators are carrying plenty into the offseason after closing 2024 with a four-game winning streak. End-of-the-season and bowl results can be fool’s gold as well, so it might be a bit premature to get carried away about the Gators. More than anything, Florida fans should have hope after Lagway looked like a star in the making during the streak. The Gators will also bring back Baugh, another impressive freshman in 2024, and Slaughter, their All-America center. J.Michael Sturdivant (UCLA) transferred in to help a depleted receiver corps. Napier also signed two four-star wideout recruits, Dallas Wilson and Vernell Brown III. The biggest concern: Florida will again play one of the most difficult schedules in the FBS. The Gators have home games against Texas, Georgia (Jacksonville) and Tennessee and road contests at LSU, Miami, Texas A&M and Ole Miss.
2024 record: 10-3, 6-2 SEC
Key returning players: QB Nico Iamaleava, WR Mike Matthews, RB Peyton Lewis, LB Arion Carter, CB Jermod McCoy, CB Rickey Gibson III, LB Jeremiah Telander
Key losses: RB Dylan Sampson, DE James Pearce Jr., WR Squirrel White, WR Bru McCoy, WR Dont’e Thornton Jr., C Cooper Mays, OT John Campbell Jr., G Javontez Spraggins
2025 outlook: After winning nine games or more for the third straight season and reaching the CFP, Josh Heupel has some work to do this offseason, especially on offense. It wouldn’t be surprising to see UT take a step back in 2025. The Volunteers are losing Sampson, the SEC’s leading rusher with 1,491 yards and 22 touchdowns, and their top three receivers (McCoy and Thornton exhausted their eligibility, and White entered the transfer portal). Three starting offensive linemen will also have to be replaced. The Vols added former Arizona guard Wendell Moe Jr. and five-star tackle prospect David Sanders. There’s a solid nucleus coming back on defense, but Tennessee will miss Pearce’s production on the edge. The Volunteers will open the season against Syracuse in Atlanta, and they’ll play Georgia at home and Alabama and Florida on the road.
2024 record: 9-4, 5-3 ACC
Key returning players: WR Chris Bell, RB Isaac Brown, LB TJ Quinn, LB Stanquan Clark, C Pete Nygra, RB Duke Watson, S D’Angelo Hutchinson, OT Trevonte Sylvester
Key losses: QB Tyler Shough, WR Ja’Corey Brooks, DE Ashton Gillotte, DE Ramon Puryear, CB Quincy Riley, S M.J. Griffin, S Tamarion McDonald, G Michael Gonzalez
2025 outlook: The Cardinals lost four games for the second straight season under Jeff Brohm, but there’s no question the 2024 campaign could have been much better. Louisville dropped three games by seven points — against Notre Dame, SMU and Miami — then somehow lost at Stanford 38-35 on Nov. 16. Brohm landed former USC quarterback Miller Moss to lead the offense, and Brown is a blossoming star after breaking Lamar Jackson’s freshman rushing record with 1,173 yards to go with 11 touchdowns. The offensive line should be a strength, even after left tackle Monroe Mills transferred to Virginia. The Cardinals have added 20 players from the portal to shore up both sides of the ball, including top defensive end Clev Lubin (Coastal Carolina), linebacker Darius Thomas (Western Kentucky) and cornerback Jabari Mack (Jacksonville State).
2024 record: 8-5, 5-4 Big Ten
Key returning players: LB Ernest Hausmann, LB Jaishawn Barham, DE TJ Guy, DE Derrick Moore, DL Rayshaun Benny, S Rod Moore, C Greg Crippen, G Giovanni El-Hadi, K Dominic Zvada, TE Marlin Klein
Key losses: DT Mason Graham, DT Kenneth Grant, CB Will Johnson, S Makari Paige, DE Josaiah Stewart, TE Colston Loveland, RB Kalel Mullings, RB Donovan Edwards, OT Myles Hinton
2025 outlook: The Wolverines salvaged coach Sherrone Moore’s first season by stunning rival Ohio State 13-10 and knocking off Alabama 19-13 in the ReliaQuest Bowl. If Michigan is going to build on that momentum, it will have to get better quarterback play from freshman Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 prospect in the 2025 ESPN 300, or Fresno State transfer Mikey Keene. Moore fired offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell and replaced him with Chip Lindsey, who called plays at North Carolina the previous two seasons. Lindsey will try to revamp an offense that failed to produce a 40-yard passing play in 2024. The Wolverines are losing two potential first-round picks in Graham and Grant. They added former Alabama five-star recruit Damon Payne Jr. to help fill one of the holes. Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale interviewed with the Indianapolis Colts and Atlanta Falcons, so it’s unclear if he’ll remain in college football in 2025.
2024 record: 8-5, 5-3 SEC
Key returning players: QB Marcel Reed, RB Le’Veon Moss, RB Rueben Owens, OT Trey Zuhn III, LB Taurean York, CB Will Lee III, S Dalton Brooks, LB Scooby Williams
Key losses: DE Nic Scourton, DT Shemar Turner, DE Shemar Stewart, DB Jaydon Hill, CB BJ Mayes, WR Noah Thomas, WR Jabre Barber
2025 outlook: Mike Elko’s first season at Texas A&M turned south when the Aggies dropped four of their last five games after a 7-1 start. The good news is Reed is returning, along with Moss and Owens, who suffered season-ending leg injuries in 2024. The Aggies hit the portal hard to beef up their receiver corps, adding NC State’s Kevin Concepcion, Mississippi State’s Mario Craver and Texas Tech’s Micah Hudson (although his future with the team is reportedly unclear). Even better, every offensive starter is expected to return. There are massive holes on the defensive front, and a couple of key players will have to be replaced in the secondary. Texas A&M plays road games at Notre Dame, LSU, Missouri and Texas.
2024 record: 10-3, 6-2 ACC
Top returning players: RB Mark Fletcher Jr., RB Jordan Lyle, OT Markel Bell, G Matthew McCoy, DE Rueben Bain Jr., CB OJ Frederique Jr., OT Francis Mauigoa
Key losses: QB Cam Ward, OT Jalen Rivers, WR Xavier Restrepo, WR Jacolby George, WR Isaiah Horton, RB Damien Martinez, TE Elijah Arroyo, LB Francisco Mauigoa, DE Tyler Baron, DL Simeon Barrow Jr., DB Mishael Powell
2025 outlook: The Hurricanes will have to replace much of the core that looked loaded for bear in 2024 but came up short again with a late-season loss at Syracuse. Ward, a Heisman Trophy finalist, won’t be easily replaced. Miami is banking on former Georgia starter Carson Beck fully recovering from surgery to repair his ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in his throwing elbow. He isn’t expected to resume throwing until sometime this spring. The Hurricanes will have to restock their receiver room after the top six pass catchers from 2024 left, but they did get CJ Daniels (LSU), one of the top wideouts in the portal. The Hurricanes have also brought in cornerbacks Charles Brantley (Michigan State), Emmanuel Karnley (Arizona) and Ethan O’Connor (Washington State) and safety Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State) to improve a porous secondary. Miami coach Mario Cristobal fired defensive coordinator Lance Guidry and replaced him with Minnesota’s Corey Hetherman.
2024 record: 12-2, 7-0 Mountain West
Key returning players: QB Maddux Madsen, TE Matt Lauter, OT Kage Casey, DT Braxton Fely, DE Jayden Virgin-Morgan, LB Marco Notarainni, S Ty Benefield, S Zion Washington
Key losses: RB Ashton Jeanty, G Ben Dooley, WR Prince Strachan, DE Ahmed Hassanein, S Seyi Oladipo
2025 outlook: The Broncos claimed a second straight Mountain West Conference title and reached the CFP. Now they’ll begin life after Jeanty, who ran for an FBS-high 2,601 yards (890 more than Skattebo, the next-closest player) with 29 touchdowns in 2024. Obviously, it won’t be easy. Sire Gaines and Jambres Dubar will probably share carries, and the Broncos added former Fresno State tailback Malik Sherrod from the portal. The good news is that four starting offensive linemen are returning, including All-MWC tackle Casey on the left side. The defense brings back a plethora of experienced and productive players, starting with leading tackler Benefield and top sack man Virgin-Morgan. The Broncos play at Notre Dame on Oct. 4.
2024 record: 10-3, 5-3 SEC
Key returning players: QB Austin Simmons, WR, Cayden Lee, TE Dae’Quan Wright, LB TJ Dottery, LB Suntarine Perkins, DT Zxavian Harris
Key losses: QB Jaxson Dart, WR Jordan Watkins, WR Tre Harris, WR Antwane Wells Jr., LB Chris Paul Jr., CB Trey Amos, DT Walter Nolen, S Trey Washington, S John Saunders Jr., DE Jared Ivey, DE Princely Umanmielen
2025 outlook: The Rebels invested heavily in the transfer portal to make a run at an SEC championship this past season, but came up short and missed the CFP after a late loss at Florida. Ole Miss will undergo a big face-lift in 2025, with Dart and most of his top receivers leaving, as well as much of the offensive line. Pregame might not be as much fun in the Grove this fall. The defensive line will have a new look, with Umanmielen, Ivey, Nolen and JJ Pegues all departing. There are big losses in the secondary, too. Simmons, a left-handed passer, looked good in limited action in 2024. Kiffin is bringing in De’Zhaun Stribling (Oklahoma State), Deuce Alexander (Wake Forest) and Caleb Odom (Alabama) to replenish the receiver room. Pass rushers Princewill Umanmielen (Nebraska) and Da’Shawn Womack (LSU) were important pickups on defense.
Teams also considered: Auburn, Texas Tech, Missouri, Georgia Tech, Baylor, Duke, Washington, Nebraska, Iowa, Army, Colorado
Sports
Baseball Hall of Fame voting winners and losers: Three stars are headed to Cooperstown — who else got good (or bad) news?
The 2025 Baseball Writers’ Association of America vote is in — and Ichiro Suzuki (one vote shy of being a unanimous selection), CC Sabathia and Billy Wagner are the newest members of the Baseball Hall of Fame. Carlos Beltran fell 19 votes short of the 75% threshold for enshrinement. The new Hall of Famers will join Dick Allen and Dave Parker, who were elected in December by the classic baseball era committee, in Cooperstown in July.
ESPN MLB experts Buster Olney, Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers and Jorge Castillo break down what the 2025 vote means and look ahead to what the future holds for this year’s candidates — and those joining the ballot in 2026.
Let’s get into it.
Besides those elected, who is the biggest winner on this year’s ballot?
Olney: The case for a lot of starting pitchers was strengthened by the first-ballot election of CC Sabathia, following his excellent career. In the past, 300 wins was a benchmark that seemed to be important to Hall voters, but that is shifting; Sabathia, with 251 wins, gets in on his first try, overwhelmingly. Sabathia has a career WAR of 61.8, and think about some of the starters who are in the same neighborhood: Zack Greinke (72.8), Luis Tiant (65.6), Tommy John (62.1), David Cone (61.6), Andy Pettitte (60.7) and Mark Buehrle (60.0). There should be a whole lot of starting pitchers making speeches on the Cooperstown stage in the years ahead.
Rogers: Andruw Jones is inching closer and closer to being elected. That’s good news considering he has only two years left on the ballot. At this rate, it’ll be a surprise if he doesn’t get in next year — or at the very least by the time his 10th year of eligibility comes around.
Castillo: I agree with Buster and Jesse on future starting pitchers on the ballot and Andruw Jones. But what about closers? Namely Francisco Rodriguez, who was on for the third time, and Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel, who both remain active. It took Billy Wagner all 10 years on the ballot, but he’s a Hall of Famer. He ranks eighth all time in saves. Jansen and Kimbrel rank fourth and fifth, respectively, with more perhaps coming. Rodriguez is sixth. He polled at just 10.2% this year, but Wagner polled at just 10% in his first two years. Wagner was more dominant over the course of his career than them and posted a higher career WAR but, given the increased importance of relievers in the sport, Wagner’s induction is good news for closers in the future.
Doolittle: Even though he came up short, Carlos Beltran getting to 70.3% in his third year makes him a good bet to get in next year. Guess he’s got one more year of penance to serve in the mind of some of the voters. He’s a no-brainer.
Who is the biggest loser from this year’s voting results?
Olney: Manny Ramirez, who now has just one more year left on the ballot with his percentage of voter support barely moving. In 2020, the Baseball Writers’ Association of America removed Kenesaw Mountain Landis’ name from the MVP award that it bestows because of his long history of racism, and yet a huge portion of voters continue to apply Landis’ character clause for steroid-era candidates. As far as the ballot is concerned, Ramirez is in good standing just like anyone else, but a lot of writers won’t let him into the Hall despite some evidence that PED users have already been inducted.
Rogers: There doesn’t seem to be a ton of softening for known PED users as Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez are making very little progress toward the 75% threshold. Ramirez, in particular, is a huge long shot to make the Hall of Fame with just one year left on the ballot. A-Rod still has plenty of time, but minds will have to change significantly for him to get in.
Castillo: Anybody known to have used PEDs. Whether you agree with it or not, the likes of Ramirez and Rodriguez will probably need the Eras Committees to be more lenient for induction.
Doolittle: Fans of historic achievements and a coherent Hall of Fame. I just don’t see Ramirez and A-Rod getting over the line, not if Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens didn’t. Nothing in this year’s number indicated any kind of a shift. To me, it’s absurd.
What is one thing that stands out to you from this year’s voting totals?
Olney: Advanced metrics help the case for some players who don’t have gaudy counting stats, and after two years of voting, it’s pretty clear that Chase Utley is going to be one of those guys. After getting 28.8% in his first year of eligibility, Utley took a significant step forward, advancing to 39.8%. That’s also good news for Buster Posey, another star player who was dominant at his position for a chunk of years but also didn’t necessarily compile gaudy counting stats.
Rogers: Well, that Ichiro did not get in unanimously. Some players simply deserve to be on everyone’s ballot. We really can’t agree on the few that come along every so often that are among the very best of all time — not just their generation? In a sport that creates debate on a daily basis, sometimes debate isn’t needed.
Castillo: While most voters have taken an unyielding tough stance against PED users, they have not viewed Beltran’s transgressions nearly as negatively. That doesn’t mean he hasn’t faced a penalty. Beltran was suspended for a year for his role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scheme and was accordingly fired as manager of the Mets before managing a game. Without that, he’s a Hall of Famer by now. Instead, he polled at 70.3% this year, his third on the ballot. He should reach the 75% threshold next year, which bodes well for other players connected to the Astros’ scandal on future ballots.
Doolittle: Russell Martin and Brian McCann both had supporters. For both of them, it seems like those who voted for them must have bought in fully to the FanGraphs’ version of WAR, which goes all-in with pitch-framing metrics. That’s especially true in Martin’s case, but both of them had fWAR totals heavily tilted toward the defensive side of the ball. Obviously, most voters aren’t there yet. For me, I remain uncertain about the measures of that skill, at least the scale of credit that is doled out for it. And “uncertain” isn’t a euphemism but a precise description, as I may yet be convinced in the future. For now, I don’t think we have a full grasp on how to rate 21st-century catchers, and I hate for anyone at that position who *might* be worthy to drop off the ballot.
Which one player’s vote total is most surprising to you?
Olney: Early in Andruw Jones’s candidacy, when he was barely clearing 7% of the vote, he looked like a long shot for election; the question was whether he would remain on the ballot. But now he’s positioned to get in next year, and if not, he’ll definitely get in the following year.
Rogers: Brian McCann. The fact that he and Russell Martin have similar totals just isn’t right — and the fact that he’s falling off the ballot is downright wrong. He’s eighth all time in home runs by catchers, and six of the seven players ahead of him are in the Hall of Fame. And he has a career .262 batting average and was considered good behind the plate. He deserved more than one year of consideration.
Castillo: Ichiro getting all but one vote. Not because he doesn’t deserve all of those votes but because he should’ve been unanimous — like so many other players in the past. For now, Mariano Rivera remains the only player inducted unanimously.
Doolittle: Chase Utley’s numbers tumbled between the last publicly tracked numbers and the release of the final results. I don’t get it. He’s only gone around twice now and should be fine eventually but until I saw the final count, I would have thought he was a good bet to get in next time. Now I doubt it. Guess his supporters have some stumping to do.
Based on this year’s results, who do you think will get in on next year’s ballot?
Olney: Andruw Jones, and Carlos Beltran (as some voters stop applying the sign-stealing demerit). And Utley will be in play. Ramirez will have too far to go in his last year on the ballot, and it’s clear that PED-related suspensions are worthy of a lifetime ban for a lot of voters.
Rogers: Jones, Beltran, who both seem like near-locks, and perhaps Utley — who is in line to make a big leap close to the 75% requirement.
Castillo: Andruw Jones, Carlos Beltran and Chase Utley. Next year’s group of first-time candidates won’t be nearly as strong, surely giving Jones and Beltran the bump they need for induction. Utley should be a close call.
Doolittle: Jones and Beltran. Hopefully Utley will get a fresh look, and, among first-timers, Cole Hamels will have support. But it might be a long slog for the cases of both former Phillies.
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Bradford Doolittle
Ichiro Suzuki became the first Japanese-born player to be elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame, falling one vote shy of unanimous selection, and he’ll be joined in the Class of 2025 by starting pitcher CC Sabathia and closer Billy Wagner.
Suzuki, who got 393 of 394 votes in balloting of the Baseball Writers Association of America, would have joined Yankees great Mariano Rivera (2019) as the only unanimous selections. Instead, Suzuki’s 99.746% of the vote is second only to Derek Jeter’s 99.748% (396 of 397 ballots cast in 2020) as the highest plurality for a position player in Hall of Fame voting, per the BBWAA.
“There was a time when I didn’t even get a chance to play in the MLB,” Suzuki told MLB TV. “So what an honor it is to be for me to be here and be a Hall of Famer.”
Suzuki collected 2,542 of his 3,089 career hits as a member of the Seattle Mariners. Before that, he collected 1,278 hits in the Nippon Professional Baseball league in Japan, giving him more overall hits (4,367) than Pete Rose, MLB’s all-time leader.
Suzuki did not debut in MLB until he was 27 years old, but he exploded on the scene in 2001 by winning Rookie of the Year and MVP honors in his first season, leading Seattle to a record-tying 116 regular-season wins.
Suzuki and Sabathia finished first and second in 2001 voting for American League Rookie of the year and later were teammates for two seasons with the Yankees.
Sabathia, who won 251 career games, was also on the ballot for the first time. He was the 2007 AL Cy Young winner while with Cleveland and a six-time All-Star. His 3,093 career strikeouts make him one of 19 members of the 3,000-strikeout club. He was named on 86.8% of the ballots
Wagner’s 422 career saves — 225 of which came with the Houston Astros — are the eighth-most in big league history. His selection comes in his 10th and final appearance on the BBWAA ballot, earning 82.5% for the seven-time All-Star.
Just falling short in the balloting was outfielder Carlos Beltran, who was named on 70.3% of ballots, shy of the 75% threshold necessary for election.
Beltran won 1999 AL Rookie of the Year honors while with Kansas City. He went on to make nine All-Star teams and become one of five players in history with at least 400 homers and 300 stolen bases.
A key member and clubhouse leader of the controversial 2017 World Series champion Astros, whose legacy was tainted by a sign-stealing scandal, Beltran’s selection would have bode well for other members of that squad who will be under consideration in the years to come.
Also coming up short was 10-time Gold Glove outfielder Andruw Jones, who was named on 76.2% of the ballots. Jones saw an uptick from last year’s total (61.6%) and still has two more years of ballot eligibility remaining.
PED-associated players on the ballot didn’t make much headway in the balloting. Alex Rodriguez finished with 37.1%, while Manny Ramirez was at 34.3%.
The three BBWAA electees will join Dick Allen and Dave Parker, who were selected by the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee in December, in being honored at the induction ceremony on July 27 at the Clark Sports Center in Cooperstown, New York.
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