Go and take it! Inside the World Series champs’ Texas-sized turnaround
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Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Staff Writer
PHOENIX — There is no one way to rebuild a baseball team, and there is no one way to exit that rebuild and ramp up to contention. There is perhaps a sentiment common to the start of any such project, though, one expressed nine months ago in four words by the general manager of baseball’s newest champions, the Texas Rangers.
“We’re sick of losing,” Chris Young said at spring training in Arizona, answering a reporter’s question about how and why the Rangers took an aggressive stance to free agency the winter before.
Nine months later, that sickness has been cured.
The road between that statement in February and Wednesday night’s pileup at Chase Field in downtown Phoenix — only 37 miles away from the spring training facility where it was spoken — was long, meandering and filled with potholes.
In the end, though, those four words were profound enough to point the way to a new destination for the Rangers — the domain of World Series champions.
“Everybody wants to be a winner,” Texas reliever Will Smith said. “That’s what you want to be known for, is a guy who wins. … It’s a whole lot better than losing.”
Smith, incidentally, knows a thing or two about winning. He has now been on the roster of three straight championship teams — the Atlanta Braves (2021), the Houston Astros (2022) and now the Rangers.
“It’s something I don’t take for granted, for sure,” Smith said.
He shouldn’t. Winning the World Series is hard. Entering the 2023 season, six of the 30 existing MLB franchises had never won a World Series. The Rangers, who began their existence with 11 lackluster seasons as the neo-Washington Senators, had played about 1,300 more games than any of the other titleless teams. In fact, if you zoom in on the 51 campaigns Texas played in Arlington before this season, it represents the longest wait any American League fan base has ever endured for that first World Series title.
That wait, as of Wednesday, is over.
You don’t think of the Rangers as perennial losers. They’ve employed several of the more larger-than-life managers we’ve ever had in baseball, from Ted Williams to Billy Martin to Whitey Herzog to Bobby Valentine, Ron Washington, Buck Showalter and, especially, their current skipper, four-time champion Bruce Bochy. Some of the biggest stars of the past half-century have played for the Rangers, including Ivan Rodriguez, Nolan Ryan, Jose Canseco, Alex Rodriguez, Adrian Beltre, Frank Howard (who died during this World Series at age 87) and Ferguson Jenkins. Heck, one of their former owners used to be president of the United States.
Yet, somehow, until Wednesday, these elements had never coalesced into championship form. And until, well, not very long before Wednesday, there had been little evidence that would change any time soon. Entering this season, the Rangers’ five-year winning percentage (.417, or 67.5 wins per 162 games) was the franchise’s worst since 1974, its third season after the move from Washington.
Now, after all of those requited summers baking in the hot Arlington sun, that title thirst has finally been quenched. In the aftermath of seasons with 102 and 94 losses, the Rangers are champs. How did this Texas-sized turnaround happen so fast?
Winter 2021
Starting with the 2021-22 offseason signings of Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray by former lead exec Jon Daniels, the Rangers had, in essence, started to put the finishing touches on a work in which the outlines were not yet clear.
Certainly, there was hope that the player development system was going to start yielding key contributors, and it has. But when Seager and Semien committed to the Rangers, they were being sold on a vision, not a track record.
Daniels was calling the front office shots at the time, with Young his top lieutenant, but even as the previous rebuild was faltering, a newer, quicker and, let’s face it, more expensive version was well underway.
“Meeting the Texas Rangers and listening to Chris Young, it definitely aligned with what I wanted to do as a player,” Semien told ESPN in September. “He said he wanted pitching too. He has done everything he said, and Ray Davis, our owner, has been on board too. When you play for an organization that is moving forward and wanting to win, that’s exactly where you want to be.”
If there is a takeaway for other teams from the Rangers’ sudden success, it’s that if you believe in your system, you don’t have to wait to invest in the roster.
“To some extent, it was to accelerate the rebuild,” Young said in September. “In a market this size, I think that our fans deserve that. They shouldn’t have to go through a five-, six-, seven-year rebuild.
“Part of it was because we felt very good about our player development system and the group of players that we had on the cusp of the big leagues, and we felt like accelerating their development would be facilitated by having the right veteran players around.”
Winter 2022
Despite 94 losses in 2022, the Rangers had in place the makings of a solid offense, in large part because of Seager and Semien’s success. Texas finished eighth with 198 homers and scored runs at a clip safely above the MLB average — and those two players set examples for the younger Rangers coming through the system.
“When your best players, the players you’re counting on the most like Seager and Semien, work extremely hard and they care deeply, your team always has a chance to reach its ceiling,” said Rangers senior advisor of baseball operations Dayton Moore, architect of a Kansas City Royals title-winning team. “Semien and Seager are as committed as players as I’ve ever been around. Watching them throughout the season, their work ethic is unbelievable.”
On the pitching side, Young’s club needed more T.L.C., where the Rangers were a bottom-10 team by ERA+. In response, Young dealt for righty Jake Odorizzi early in the offseason. Then, with the blessing of Davis, Young went hard in free agency in the spring, landing, in order, Jacob deGrom, Andrew Heaney and Nathan Eovaldi. That quartet, along with 2022 holdovers like Gray, Martin Perez and Dane Dunning gave the Rangers one of the deepest and most accomplished core rotations in the majors.
“We went into the offseason knowing that we needed to improve our starting pitching,” Young said during the AL Championship Series. “It was a big limitation for us last year. We knew that we had scored runs and we were going to have pretty much the same offensive team back. So the key to us being a good team was going to be to improve our starting pitching. We obviously were very active in the free agent market.”
Based on those acquisitions alone, the Texas baseline win projection moved into the .500 range — and that was without considering the late October news that Bochy had signed on to return to the dugout and guide the team.
The biggest splash on the acquisition list was deGrom, arguably the best pitcher in baseball when he’s able to stay on the mound. Since the beginning of the 2018 season, deGrom has a composite 2.08 ERA with 290 strikeouts per 162 games. That’s not merely ace material, that’s Cooperstown stuff.
The Rangers hit spring training with their brand-new rotation and their legendary manager — and then the depth chart began to thin before the season even began. Odorizzi went down with a bum shoulder that ended up requiring season-ending surgery.
It was only the first such challenge for the Rangers.
Spring 2023
Losing Odorizzi stung, but the Rangers still had good rotation depth as the season began. They still had a dream October one-two punch in deGrom and Eovaldi — as long as they could get to October.
Then, on April 28, during a win over the New York Yankees, deGrom threw his last pitch of the season, leaving early because of two dreaded words: forearm tightness. He tried to work his way back, throwing a bullpen session in late May. In June, he underwent Tommy John surgery.
DeGrom had been the latest marquee free agent to be wooed by not just Davis’ dollars but also Young’s plans to build a sustainable contender. He was a big part of that plan, an irreplaceable component, if lost, from any team’s rotation.
Even when the roster-building plan is perfect, things go wrong. The ineffable quality of a championship team is something else, something more elusive. That something can be called clubhouse chemistry or team culture or what the players might call the “next-man-up mentality.” How you create it or how you even define it is hard to say, but invariably, a championship team is going to have it.
So how did the Rangers respond? By June 12, the date of deGrom’s surgery, Texas owned the second-best rotation ERA in baseball (3.38), leading all teams in innings from starters and ranking fourth in quality starts.
All of those measures remained strong through the All-Star break, partially because Eovaldi and Gray were pitching like All-Stars and because Dunning, who stepped into deGrom’s place in the rotation, owned a sub-3.00 ERA.
“A few guys go down, but you’ll have to face a little adversity in the season to have success,” said Eovaldi, a key member of the 2018 champion Boston Red Sox. “I feel that was one of our main things this year, we had a lot of key players, not just even pitchers, but a lot of guys step up when one of the guys went down and filled in the role nicely.”
It wasn’t just the pitching staff. In April, Seager turned up with a sore hamstring that kept him out of the lineup for several weeks. With deGrom ailing, as well, the Rangers were pressing ahead in the rugged AL West without their most talented pitcher and most talented hitters.
And what happened? Rookie Josh Jung, Bochy’s every-day third baseman from the outset, flourished, posting 12 homers and 37 RBIs by the end of May and diving around the field on defense, doing the best imitation he could of his historical hero, Brooks Robinson. Semien mashed too, and the Rangers went 20-13 during Seager’s lengthy absence, with utility player Ezequiel Duran hitting .305/.342/.533 during that time. Next man up, indeed.
By the All-Star break, the Rangers were leading the majors in runs.
“We’re just resilient,” Seager said. “We’ve talked about it all year. Just playing good baseball, trying to win series and having a pass-the-baton mentality. You don’t have to be the guy every night. It’s just kind of translated for us.”
Summer 2023
Eovaldi caught fire as the season progressed toward the All-Star break, establishing himself as a likely contender for the AL Cy Young Award.
Not surprisingly, that run started in the immediate aftermath of deGrom’s injury. On April 29, Eovaldi threw a three-hit shutout against the Yankees. From that game through July 18, his first start of the second half, Eovaldi went 9-1 with a 1.97 ERA. Ace stuff. Cy Young stuff.
Then Eovaldi also got hurt. During that July 18 start, he threw six shutout frames against the Tampa Bay Rays, but his velocity was down. A start was skipped. A forearm strain was reported. He didn’t pitch again until September.
When Eovaldi went down, Texas was 19 games over .500 and led the division by 4½ games with the trade deadline looming two weeks away. And then it all started to turn.
The star-starved rotation began to suffer, and the Rangers bled runs at an alarming rate. Texas lost its last three games going into deadline day. Their lead over archrival Houston had shrunk to one game.
So what happened? Young doubled and tripled down on an already expensive rotation, dealing for Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery. Rather than rest on the talent, Young made the Rangers one of the clear winners of deadline machinations.
“By the time we got to the deadline, we needed to readdress our rotation, so that’s what we did,” Young said, his matter-of-fact tone implying that every team goes out and trades for two All-Star starters midstream.
The Rangers won on deadline day, the first of eight straight victories. They won 12 of 14 overall to move a season-high 24 games over .500 by the middle of August. Things were good, with the new order suggested by the Rangers’ strong first half seemingly restored by Young’s characteristic aggression at the deadline.
As it turned out, the Rangers’ rollercoaster was just starting to roll. After hitting that high point on Aug. 15, Texas lost nine straight (including twice to Arizona, the team they just vanquished in the Fall Classic). They fell into a tie in what had become a three-team struggle with Houston and Seattle.
The slump just kept getting worse. From Aug. 16 through Sept. 8, Texas lost 16 of 20. During those games, the Rangers’ staff put up a 6.33 ERA. Only four teams put a lower OPS at the plate. What had seemed like a surefire playoff spot was no longer assured.
Nothing was clicking. Bochy’s pitching staff was on fumes. It all came to a head during what Young refers to as “the disaster series.”
Houston was in town. Despite the Rangers’ slump, they were still in good position, and a strong series against the Astros not only would put Houston in a major hole, but it could restore some of the Rangers’ earlier momentum.
Over the next three days, despite Eovaldi’s return to action and a marquee matchup that pitted Scherzer against Justin Verlander, Houston outscored the Rangers 39-10, a frightening differential that looks even worse when you consider that Texas led the first game 3-0 at one point.
Injuries (Heim and Jung, among them) played a big part in the skid, but Texas looked very much like a team that had fallen into an irreversible spiral.
There was no one moment that pulled them out. Texas started to get healthier, at least on offense, though Scherzer was lost with a shoulder injury that everyone thought would end his season. Young called up top prospect Evan Carter. Eovaldi began to round into form. Montgomery performed like the top-of-the-rotation starter Texas badly needed. The Rangers won six straight and regained their lead in the AL West.
“I think we had to deal with more this year than any year I’ve ever had to manage,” Bochy said. “And that’s what makes me proud of these guys, too, how they were focused on that as much as, hey, let’s focus forward. And they kept doing that.”
Carter was a revelation almost from the start, hitting .306/.413/.645 down the stretch while flashing plus speed on basepaths and defense in the outfield. The system Young had bet on was paying off again.
So, too, was the Rangers’ emergent clubhouse culture where in a room peopled by some of the game’s biggest stars, rookies like Carter and Jung, and reinforcements like Duran and Travis Jankowski felt right at home. Next man up, yes, but it was every man up as well.
“It shows that no matter who we have on the field, we’re going to compete,” Carter said. “A team like us, we’ve got the Coreys, the Marcuses that are so high up there in the baseball world, it’s kind of easy to overlook the other people who are really good contributors. Obviously Corey and Marcus are huge reasons for our success but at the same time, we had people come in and contribute in all kinds of ways.”
October 2023
The Rangers had an up-and-down finish to the regular season and missed a chance to win the AL West outright by dropping a 1-0 game in Seattle on the season’s final day. They tied the Astros for the division lead, but Houston owned the tiebreaker (in part because of the disaster series).
Instead of resting at home in the wild card round, Texas boarded a plane in Seattle, enduring one of baseball’s longest flights: across the continent for a winner-takes-all series against the Tampa Bay Rays in St. Petersburg, Florida.
The Rangers took two straight, swept the Rays, then won two on the road against the Baltimore Orioles in the next round. By Game 3 of the ALCS, the Rangers had played only one game at home — and had won every single road game they played in three other cities.
There were still more setbacks at the very end of the Rangers’ run. Adolis Garcia, who, along with Seager, powered the Texas offense in October was lost to an oblique injury suffered in Game 3 of the World Series. Scherzer, who shockingly returned during the ALCS, had his back lock up in the same game.
Both players were removed from the Texas roster simultaneously before Game 4 against the Diamondbacks.
And what happened? Bolstered by an emotional pregame speech by the devastated Garcia, the Rangers clubbed Arizona 11-7 in Game 4, and finished off the Snakes in Game 5. Injury after injury, setback after setback, this was one rapid rebuild that was not going to be denied.
Young, a native of the Dallas area and a former Rangers player, had delivered the franchise’s first title. Bochy had won his fourth. While you can look at the splashy free agent signings and the stars acquired through trade, moves that had Seager and Semien and Eovaldi and Scherzer and deGrom and Garcia dancing around the same clubhouse with Jankowski and Jung and Carter and everyone else, what is perhaps most impressive is not how quickly the talent was gathered, but how quickly that elusive thing — chemistry, comradery, culture, next-man-upness, whatever you want to call it — became this team’s manna, the fuel that helped them overcome more than their fair share of roadblocks.
It was the team Young built, in his first full season as Texas’ lead exec. Not a bad bit of work for a guy who was pitching in the majors just a few years ago. Even when he was still hurling for Moore’s teams in Kansas City, winning a title in 2015, the Royals’ title-winning GM knew Young had future exec written all over him.
“Everybody talks about how smart C.Y. is, but he’s got emotional intelligence too,” Rangers advisor Dayton Moore said. “You have to have a natural love and passion for this game, which he does. You have to have baseball wisdom, which he does. And then you also have to love people. He has all three, and he has a great work ethic. I think he’s got a chance to do this successfully for a long time.”
Young and his team have a tough act to follow after Wednesday, but one thing is certain: They aren’t going to get tired of winning any time soon.
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Ryan S. Clark
Face it. You’ve thought about this at home or at work. You’ve done it when you’re with family and friends. You’ve even thought about it before bed and when you should be watching your favorite team.
Who is going to make the national team for [insert nation] at the Olympics?
Every national team is facing tough personnel decisions. Some more than others. But it all comes with the caveat that so much can change until it’s time to submit their final rosters at the end of December.
Until then, here’s a projection examining what the teams for Canada, Czechia, Finland, Sweden and the United States might look like ahead of the Winter Olympics men’s hockey tournament that begins Feb. 11 in Milan-Cortina.
Jump to a roster:
United States
Canada
Sweden
Finland
Czechia
United States
Note: Players in bold were the first six selected.
Names to watch: G Joey Daccord, F Alex DeBrincat, G Thatcher Demko, D Lane Hutson, F Patrick Kane, F Chris Kreider, F Frank Nazar, F Shane Pinto, F Jason Robertson, F Vincent Trocheck, F Trevor Zegras
From the point: Finding options isn’t going to be a problem for Team USA. Within this projected roster, the Americans can field a lineup that possesses balance and versatility in many areas.
Yet it appears that the two players who could impact Team USA’s roster selection process might be Patrick Kane and Vincent Trocheck. Kane is currently injured and has been out of the lineup since mid-October. Before the injury, he had five points in as many games, which allowed him to present an early case for making the roster in what’s a crowded field at winger.
Trocheck was injured in the second game of the season and began practicing with the New York Rangers on Monday. A fully healthy Trocheck would give Team USA another two-way center who can be trusted to play in numerous situations — as well as one more selection discussion for what makes the most sense down the middle.
How does Thatcher Demko factor into the goaltending discussion?
The U.S. is believed to have the strongest set of goalies of any team eligible for the Olympics. But should its group of three include Demko?
The Vancouver Canucks goaltender was a Vezina Trophy finalist in the 2023-24 season before an injury-riddled 2024-25 season saw him struggle to attain consistency. As of Tuesday, Demko’s save percentage (.911) and goals-against average (2.57) were significantly better than Jeremy Swayman‘s marks (.896, 3.14). He is also fourth in goals saved above average, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Canada
Note: Players in bold were the first six selected.
Names to watch: F Connor Bedard, F Sam Bennett, G Mackenzie Blackwood, D Evan Bouchard, F Anthony Cirelli, D Noah Dobson, F Bo Horvat, F Zach Hyman, D Mike Matheson, F John Tavares
From the point: A wealth of options is Canada’s greatest strength while simultaneously being its biggest challenge. With this particular projection, there is a two-way element with many of the forwards, while the defensive setup has puck movers partnered with stay-at-home options who have size. There are remaining questions:
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What happens if Zach Hyman returns from his wrist injury and provides consistent production?
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How does Canada’s goalie situation change if Mackenzie Blackwood, who has also been injured to start the season, can find consistency?
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Can any of the players who missed the cut in this projection get back on the radar with a strong next month?
Could Canada take Connor Bedard and Macklin Celebrini?
Speed — and those who know how to use that speed in tight spaces — played a big role in Canada’s success at the 4 Nations Face-Off. Although Canada has numerous players like that in this projection, is it possible it could add more by bringing in Bedard and moving Celebrini into the active lineup?
Both provide another offensive dimension, and Celebrini has shown he can handle the demands of being a two-way center. Either way, expect both to be heavily in the mix in 2030.
Sweden
Note: Players in bold were the first six selected.
Names to watch: F Mikael Backlund, F Andre Burakovsky, D Philip Broberg, D Simon Edvinsson, G Samuel Ersson, D Oliver Ekman-Larsson, D Adam Larsson, F Victor Olofsson
From the point: Sweden appears to have balance throughout its lineup in this projection, although there could still be certain adjustments. Namely, what makes the most sense for Sweden at left wing?
Lucas Raymond and Jesper Bratt have had starts that justify them being on the top two lines; it’s at the bottom two lines where the questions begin. Gabriel Landeskog has three points through his first 13 games though his average ice time is seventh among forwards on the Colorado Avalanche. Before Rickard Rakell broke his hand, he had eight points in nine games; he’ll return sometime in December. And of course, there’s the discussion about whether Sweden should use Elias Pettersson down the middle or on the wing.
Sweden also could be facing questions related to Linus Ullmark‘s struggles to start the season, and if the team could be inclined to take a look at Edvinsson after his start.
Are Simon Edvinsson and Victor Olofsson becoming too hard to ignore?
Playing for two of the top teams in the NHL entering November usually attracts attention, which is the case for Edvinsson and Olofsson.
Edvinsson has continued to carve out his place as one of the Red Wings’ most important players. He has played a top-pairing role, is second on the team in average ice time and 5-on-5 minutes, and is fourth in short-handed minutes.
Olofsson is operating in a top-nine role for the Avs and has used that opportunity to be fifth on the team in points. He’s on pace for a career-high 63 points this season.
Finland
Note: Players in bold were the first six selected.
Names to watch: F Kasperi Kapanen, G Joonas Korpisalo, F Patrik Laine, F Jani Nyman, F Juuso Parssinen, C Aatu Raty, F Eeli Tolvanen, D Juuso Valimaki
From the point: Finland’s potential roster has been — and will likely continue to be — impacted by major injuries this season.
Aleksander Barkov, who was one of Finland’s “first six,” tore an ACL and MCL in training camp, and was the first domino to fall. Finland has seen other players — such as Kaapo Kakko, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Rasmus Ristolainen — miss the start of the regular season while recovering from injuries. Kakko played his first game Nov. 1, Luukkonen made his debut Oct. 25, and Ristolainen is expected to be out until December with a triceps injury.
Patrik Laine sustained a core muscle injury in late October, which could see him miss at least three months — and potentially place his Olympic chances in jeopardy.
What does Finland’s plan look like should more injuries arise?
It’s possible that Finland could find some relief should Laine be cleared to play at the Olympics. But in the event he’s not, Finland could be tempted to turn to some of its younger players in the NHL such as Nyman, Parssinen and Raty at forward. All three entered Nov. 3 with either the same or slightly more points than Jesperi Kotkaniemi in a similar number of games. There’s also the possibility that Finland could opt for more experienced forwards such as Kasperi Kapanen or Eeli Tolvanen.
Another option for Finland’s defense is Valimaki. He was named to Finland’s 4 Nations Face-Off roster but didn’t play. He tore an ACL in March and is expected to return sometime around November or December. He could be an option, given there have been only seven Finnish defensemen who have played in the NHL this season entering November.
Czechia
Note: Players in bold were the first six selected.
Names to watch: F Filip Chlapik, F Jakub Lauko, F Adam Klapka, D Jan Kostalek, F Tomas Nosek, F Michael Spacek, F Matej Stransky, F Simon Stransky, G Karel Vejmelka, F Adam Zboril
From the point: Tomas Hertl, Martin Necas, David Pastrnak and Pavel Zacha have had the sort of starts to the season that strengthen the notion Czechia’s top-six forward corps could make a significant impact at the Games.
Now it’s a matter of determining what Czechia could receive from its supporting cast — with a number of them playing outside of the NHL.
In the most recent men’s IIHF World Championship, Roman Cevenka and Lukas Sedlak finished second and third on the team in points. They’ve continued to produce in the Czech Extraliga, the nation’s top professional league. Jakub Flek has opened the season with 15 goals and 22 points through 21 games.
Which two goalies will join Lukas Dostal on the Czechia roster?
There was a time when Czechia seemed poised to take Dostal, Vejmelka and Dan Vladar as its three goalies. But that appears to have changed — or at least merited a conversation.
The expectation is that Dostal, who was among the first six players named to Czechia’s provisional roster, will be the starter. As for the rest of the field? Jakub Dobes has won his first six games, while his GSAA ranks third in the NHL, per Natural Stat Trick. Vladar entered Tuesday ranked third in goals-against average (2.11) and save percentage (.924) while being 14th in GSAA.
Although Vejmelka has the same number of wins (six) as Dobes, he was 25th in goals-against average, 34th in save percentage and 55th in GSAA.
Sports
How the high-contact, high-octane Blue Jays nearly took down a baseball superpower — and how it could change MLB
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Bradford Doolittle
FOR THE FIRST time in 32 years, the Toronto Blue Jays won the American League pennant.
They also came up just short of snapping their World Series title drought, dropping a memorable, tense, 11-inning Game 7 to the Los Angeles Dodgers at a rollicking Rogers Centre on Saturday.
To push the defending champs as far as they could be pushed, Toronto leaned on a diverse, balanced offense that ranked among MLB’s best all season (fourth in runs per game) and somehow got better in the playoffs despite the unforgiving crucible created by October-style pitching staffs.
All of this from a team that just a year ago finished last in the AL East and ranked 23rd in scoring. All this from a team that, after some disappointing free agent pursuits over the past couple of years, entered the playoffs with largely the same roster as last year.
This year, at least, splashy overhauls were overrated.
“The players that are here, they have continued to get better,” Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins said at the Series’ outset.
As the powder-blue dust settles from a magical run that saw the Blue Jays turn an entire nation on its proverbial ear, questions are turning to whether their accomplishment can be replicated. Some of it is standard: whether the latest “it” team can sustain its sudden rise. In a larger sense, though, the baseball industry is wondering what this Toronto run means.
Featuring an offense whose standout trait was an MLB-best batting average, the Blue Jays weren’t just a successful team that adapted to every challenge along the way. The Blue Jays were fun, an absolute gas to watch — for the simple reason that they put the ball in play.
They were led by one of the most fun players in baseball, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who spent the past month terrorizing opposing pitchers. He did it with an elite combination of contact and pop, something that his teammates emulated as best they could. In becoming more like Vladdy, the Toronto offense turned into a juggernaut. And, now, the Blue Jays have the offense everyone else wants to have.
They leveraged Guerrero’s presence to give them the identity they sought, and they acquired and molded players to work in that approach.
“We have always felt that contact would turn into more damage,” Atkins said. “This year, it did.”
Identity. Aesthetics. Success. And now, a pennant. The Toronto Blue Jays nearly won it all, and as we watched Canada fall in love with them, we have to ask: Have the Blue Jays solved the strikeout era?
REALLY, THE EMPHASIS on batting average in this case is more an avatar about Toronto’s style of play than about the ancient baseball statistic. Still, the Blue Jays led the majors in the category, and that was no accident. In fact, before Game 6, Blue Jays manager John Schneider mentioned it after he was asked about comments by Dodgers pitcher Blake Snell, who said the Toronto hitters had gotten lucky on what Snell felt were some pretty good pitches when they beat the lefty in Game 5.
“No, I thought we took good swings early on his fastball,” Schneider said. “And I think we led the league in batting average this year.”
The Blue Jays have constructed a lineup that balances the objective of making consistent contact — even in today’s hyper-strikeout context — remarkably, without losing the ability to hit the ball out of the park and for extra bases.
The Blue Jays aren’t all batting average, and it’s not all about simply making contact. Toronto rated better than the MLB average in home run percentage and isolated power. The Blue Jays were also third in line-drive rate, which helps fuel the average.
During the regular season, the Blue Jays ranked 23rd in the majors in scoring 38.3% of their runs on home runs. That number rose to 48% in the playoffs, but the strikeout rate remained low.
The Blue Jays led the majors with the lowest strikeout rate (17.8%) of any team over the past eight seasons — and lowered that number to 17.1% in the postseason, the lowest by a playoff team that played at least three games since the 2014 San Francisco Giants.
The increase in home run percentage in the playoffs paired with the stunning improvement in strikeout rate unsurprisingly led to more scoring. Toronto scored 4.93 runs per game during the season, ranking fourth, but rolled up an average of 5.83 runs during its 18 postseason games, nearly 30% more than any other team.
Not just contact. Not just power. Toronto puts the ball in play, but its approach always had to be more than that if it was going to translate to the high-stakes games.
“We tried to thread the needle a little bit with that going from last year to this year,” Schneider said. “Understanding that our main guys make a lot of contact, we leaned into it a little bit. And I think, at the same time, you don’t want to just be playing pingpong.”
The Blue Jays finished third in OPS during the regular season behind the New York Yankees and Dodgers, but with better batting averages and on-base percentages than both. With runners in scoring position, Toronto led the majors in average (.292) and BABIP (.329). Only the Kansas City Royals struck out less after counts that reached two strikes. Over and over, the Blue Jays showed an ability to adjust and adapt to what was needed and what was thrown.
The Blue Jays aren’t the first successful playoff team to focus on contact — most of the excellent Houston Astros offenses during their run of success over the past decade featured a relatively balanced attack. The champion 2018 Boston Red Sox were another team like that.
But the Blue Jays might be the most impressive version that we’ve seen yet, if only because the difficulties of hitting for average keep increasing with each passing year as more and more strikeout pitchers arrive in the majors.
It’s worth considering the team the Dodgers vanquished one round before Toronto, the Milwaukee Brewers, who ranked third in regular-season batting average (.258) and posted the fourth-lowest strikeout rate (20.3%). But whereas the Blue Jays gave Los Angeles’ red-hot pitching staff far more trouble than any of the Dodgers’ National League playoff opponents, the Brewers’ hitters were more or less helpless during L.A.’s sweep of the National League Championship Series.
Maybe Milwaukee just ran into the Dodgers’ pitching buzzsaw just as many of its hitters were struggling. Still, it is worth noting that although Milwaukee and Toronto both paired elite averages with elite contact rates, they were in fact very different offenses, one that worked in the playoffs and one that did not.
For one, the Blue Jays were the more veteran team, with an average hitter age more than one season older than the Brewers’. The bigger difference was that the Blue Jays didn’t run all that much, so it was their collective extra-base ability that augmented their high-contact approach, whereas the Brewers went wild on the basepaths. Finally, the Brewers walked more — the Blue Jays weren’t a wild-swinging team but were only about league average in walk percentage.
Even though Milwaukee walked just as often during the playoffs, its lack of collective pop continued and its strikeout rate spiked, leading to a cratering in average and on-base percentage. With no one getting on base, the Brewers weren’t able to get their running game going, especially against the Dodgers.
The level of pitching that playoff teams have to navigate is brutal. Teams have condensed their staffs to their nastiest hurlers. The built-in travel days give the best of those hurlers more game-free rest days. Over the past decade, during baseball’s era of strikeout hyperinflation, teams have struck out 22.4% of the time during the regular season. At playoff time, that number jumps to 24.8%, even though the best offenses are generally still playing.
The Blue Jays turned that around. When a team can navigate the postseason with an offense that somehow gets better during the playoffs, the industry will notice.
IT’S ESPECIALLY NOTABLE because the majority of the position players who appeared during the World Series were with the club last season, and in many cases, have been with the organization for years.
That wasn’t entirely intentional. The Blue Jays wanted to sign Juan Soto, but didn’t. They wanted to sign Shohei Ohtani, but didn’t. Instead, the front office crafted a revamped offensive philosophy under the guidance of a hitting staff led by coach David Popkins, who was hired just more than a year ago.
Popkins, who came to Toronto last October after parting ways with the Minnesota Twins, talked to MLB.com about his philosophy before the season.
“My philosophy is built off of creativity,” Popkins said. “We’re trying to become the most creative lineup at scoring runs in baseball. We do that by practicing all of the different situations and clubs that we’re going to need in the game.”
By “clubs,” Popkins doesn’t mean teams or opponents, but golf clubs. Popkins was talking about an initiative in which, just as in golf, you pick a specific iron or wood or wedge based on the terrain and the distance to the hole, and he would craft a baseball lineup that was adaptable to the game situation and the pitcher on the mound.
This meant that, at the very least, the Blue Jays, under Popkins, were not going with the kind of all-or-nothing approach that has become too prevalent in 2020s baseball. Get a pitch and launch it. It’s an easy philosophy to describe but incredibly complex to implement.
“We say all the time, ‘What club do you take out of your bag?'” Schneider said. “I think last year, we had a lot of guys just hanging out with like a 7-iron the entire time. So, it’s when to use that, when to use a driver. And knowing that they can make contact is kind of a little safety net for them.”
Schneider and his players tout the work of Popkins and his staff. When they were hired last fall, the hitting coaches had no way to know that they were working with a championship-caliber offense because the lineup was not on that level last season.
“[Popkins] gets praise, but he probably doesn’t get enough,” Bo Bichette said. “The energy he brings every day is second to none. I’ve never experienced that from a coach, the passion. When you have that type of passion, you tend to really learn about your craft and learn what it takes. He’s helped all of us for sure.
“We have a ton of talent who — myself in particular — didn’t perform to our capabilities last year. So, that plays a part. But I think we train to be able to do anything in the batter’s box.”
Certainly, there is position regression in these numbers — players bouncing back after down seasons — but consider the following list of leaps in batting average:
Addison Barger, .197 to .243
Bichette, .225 to .311
Ernie Clement, .263 to .277
Alejandro Kirk, .253 to .282
Davis Schneider, .191 to .234
Daulton Varsho .214 to .238
Bichette, who became a free agent after the World Series, might be the litmus test for how eager teams are to follow in Toronto’s footsteps. He’s a career .294 hitter but doesn’t run well, even when healthy, and his declining defensive metrics suggest a need to move down the defensive spectrum. But at the plate, he pairs contact with consistent extra-base ability. If you want a Blue Jays offense, why not sign one of the players most responsible for making it work?
And then there’s 36-year-old George Springer, whose jump from .220 to .309 was the largest year-over-year improvement in batting average among any qualifying hitter this season. Overall, Toronto’s team average went from .241 to .265, even though Anthony Santander (.175) and Andres Gimenez (.210) struggled.
Much has been made about one aspect of the Blue Jays’ improved contact ability and success, and converting that contact into hits. That’s bat speed, which is now tracked by Statcast and can be monitored by teams and fans.
The Blue Jays weren’t elite in average bat speed, but a number of their key hitters showed marked increases over last year — Guerrero, Clement and Barger, just to name a few. Springer was up by nearly 2 mph in his age-35 season.
Yet, all of these players controlled those faster bats, got wood on the ball and did so with authority. The formula seems blindingly obvious. If the pitchers are throwing harder, then the hitters need to swing faster. It’s not remotely that simple in reality, but this is, in effect, what the Blue Jays did.
“I think the whole industry kind of started looking at that last year with more public knowledge of it, public information of it,” Schneider said. “When guys were throwing as hard as they are, you got to combat it somehow, whether it’s with bat speed or mechanics.”
THE BLUE JAYS’ modernized approach to an old-school offense succeeded at a time when many major league teams have put more emphasis on identifying, scouting and developing contact hitting. Toronto is arguably the first team of this era to break through at this level with such an approach.
Because this has already been a trend around baseball, Toronto’s success might be less of a light bulb flashing in the minds of rival executives and more of a validation for what other teams have been trying to do.
“In terms of how baseball goes forward, to me, pitching is so good these days with the stuff and the velo, you have to be able to put the ball in play,” Schneider said. “You have to put pressure on the defense and the pitcher. I like that we can do it in a variety of ways.”
For MLB — the entity — it’s a revelation because the approach didn’t just work, it also was so much fun to watch. And, most importantly, it paid off with a pennant and a thrilling World Series performance that will be long remembered. If you needed any more evidence for that than what existed before this Fall Classic, you just had to feel the Rogers Centre vibrating on the banks of Lake Ontario as the World Series reached its historic crescendo.
They didn’t win it all, but the season was a triumph for the Blue Jays, a triumph for Toronto and a triumph for all of Canada. And if more teams can be like the Blue Jays going forward, it’ll be a triumph for baseball fans, too.
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