A few days ago, we checked in on what to believe and what not to in the National League. Well, the American League is perhaps even more chaotic.

The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox are in the midst of a crucial four-game series at Yankee Stadium — with the final game on “Sunday Night Baseball” at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN. Both teams will try to make a statement and inch closer to the Toronto Blue Jays at the top of the division while staying ahead in the wild-card race.

The Blue Jays had been hot — except they just lost a series to the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates. The Houston Astros were recently shut out three games in a row (and four out of five) but kept their slim hold on first place in the AL West because the Seattle Mariners went 2-7 on a recent road trip, including a brutal three-game wipeout in Philadelphia. Meanwhile, the Detroit Tigers might be back on track, and the Kansas City Royals are suddenly surging.

Let’s check on the current states of overreaction in the AL and make some verdicts.

Overreaction: Judge! Bellinger! Stanton! The Yankees are back, baby!

Calm down there, tiger. The Yankees took two of three from Minnesota. They scored 24 runs in sweeping St. Louis, and then they bashed nine home runs in a win over Tampa Bay.

The middle of the order is leading the way. Aaron Judge is back off the injured list. Cody Bellinger has proven to be one of the most unheralded pickups of last offseason, on his way to his most home runs since his MVP season of 2019. The big shocker has been Giancarlo Stanton, though. He missed the first two-plus months of the season because of what was described as a double tennis elbow, as if he had spent the offseason working on his backhand slice, preparing for the French Open. In 46 games since returning in mid-June, he’s hitting .311/.389/..642, producing what is easily his highest OPS since his MVP season of 2017, and has been so hot that the Yankees played him a few games in right field to keep his bat in the lineup (allowing Judge to DH while working on returning to the field) even though Stanton is less mobile than the monuments in center field.

So, it has been a nice stretch after losing records in June and July. But there are still issues. Max Fried, who starts Friday night, is scuffling, with a 6.80 ERA over his past eight starts. He hasn’t had a quality start since June. The back of the bullpen is still sorting out things, as David Bednar has replaced Devin Williams as the closer (and blew the save Wednesday, although the Yankees won in extra innings), but Camilo Doval and Jake Bird, two other trade deadline acquisitions, haven’t made an impact. There could still be a terrific bullpen here, especially if Williams gets straightened out, but let’s hold off on declaring that.

And Judge still hasn’t played the outfield. Though manager Aaron Boone played Stanton in right field at Yankee Stadium, where there is less ground to cover, he hasn’t played Stanton in the field on the road, leaving him as a part-time player for now. Ryan McMahon, the team’s other big deadline move, has been getting on base but has one home run in 22 games with the Yankees.

VERDICT: OVERREACTION. You can make the argument that if everything was clicking for the Yankees, they have the most upside and deepest roster in the AL: a potential ace in Fried, a potential No. 2 in Carlos Rodon, a potential wipeout bullpen, the best hitter in the sport in Judge and power up and down the lineup. They haven’t played that well against the top teams in the AL, however, including a combined 4-13 record against the Red Sox and Blue Jays, and Fried’s current struggles are a big concern. Let’s not put the Yankees in the playoffs yet.

Overreaction: The Red Sox have to win this series against the Yankees

The likeliest scenario in a four-game series between two evenly matched teams is, of course, a split. That would leave the Red Sox where they started the series, one game behind the Yankees and in third place in the AL East, but potentially in a much tighter wild-card picture. Still, after winning their first five games in August, the Red Sox went 3-7 in their past 10 games entering the Yankees series, so that makes this series a little more pressure-packed even for a late-August Red Sox-Yankees showdown.

Most frustrating, the Red Sox lost two games in extra innings in that 3-7 stretch and also lost both games that Garrett Crochet started. He had one bad start against the Houston Astros, lasting four innings in his worst start of the season, and then the bullpen blew a 3-1 lead to the Miami Marlins as Greg Weissert and Steven Matz allowed ninth-inning home runs when Aroldis Chapman was unavailable to close. Chapman had pitched the previous games and had thrown only 14 pitches over the two outings, so it was a dubious decision by manager Alex Cora (Chapman had appeared in three consecutive games earlier in the season).

One key for the Red Sox down the stretch: How much will Cora push his top pitchers? Crochet is already past his innings total of 2024 and hasn’t pitched on four days’ rest since June 18, with rest periods of seven and nine days during that span. Chapman has had a dominant season but has pitched just 48 innings in 53 appearances and has rarely made even back-to-back outings. The Yankees series begins a stretch for Boston of 13 games in 13 days and 19 in 20, so Cora will have to make some decisions with his rotation.

VERDICT: OVERREACTION. Is there urgency to turn things around? Of course. Is this a do-or-die series? No, it’s still too early to make that claim, especially with the Red Sox still in a solid wild-card position (granted, chasing down the Blue Jays remains the ultimate goal). On the other hand, this eight-game road trip to New York and Baltimore looms large, given the Red Sox are just 28-34 on the road– and the Orioles have been playing better of late. A bad road trip could be disastrous. Check back next week.

Overreaction: The Blue Jays — not the Tigers — are now the best team in the AL

The Blue Jays have gone 48-26 since May 28 — the second-best record in the majors behind Milwaukee since that date. They have the highest OPS in the majors since then and only the Brewers are close to them in runs scored (Boston has scored the third-most runs and is 50 runs behind the Blue Jays since May 28). It hasn’t been just Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette either. George Springer and Addison Barger have mashed, Daulton Varsho has had a big August and role players such as Davis Schneider, Joey Loperfido, Ernie Clement and Tyler Heineman have been excellent. Toronto has a sneaky deep lineup.

Oh, and Max Scherzer has suddenly reeled off five straight quality starts.

On the other hand, the Tigers seem back on track after that stretch in July when they lost 11 of 12. They’ve won four series in a row, granted, three of those were against the Los Angeles Angels, Chicago White Sox and diminished Minnesota Twins, but they also just swept the Astros, knocking around Framber Valdez in the series finale Wednesday and tossing shutouts in the other two wins. Charlie Morton has helped stabilize the rotation with three excellent starts in his four turns with the Tigers, and the bullpen — with added reinforcements from the trade deadline — has been much better in August after struggling in July. Kerry Carpenter has also been mashing since his return in late July.

VERDICT: OVERREACTION. If you’re buying Scherzer and Eric Lauer as frontline starters and all the surprising offensive performances, then it’s not unreasonable to suggest the Blue Jays are the team to beat. Some of those offensive numbers are skewed by that crazy series at Coors Field when they scored 45 runs in three games, however, and when considering the entire season, the Tigers still have the better run differential (as do the Yankees and Red Sox). The Jays’ bandwagon is gaining momentum, but the AL still feels like one big group of teams that will all finish 92-70.

Overreaction: The Astros can’t hit, and the Mariners can’t pitch

Does anyone want to win the AL West? It doesn’t seem like it (you can even throw in the Texas Rangers, who were tied with the Mariners on July 30 but have gone 6-13 since then in playing a difficult August schedule). The Astros are hitting just .226 in August with a .649 OPS. Carlos Correa has been their best hitter, so it’s hard to criticize that trade, but Jesus Sanchez has hit .150 with one RBI for Houston while rookie Cam Smith has fallen into a slump. Getting back Yordan Alvarez, who just began a rehab assignment, will be a big lift if he’s healthy.

As for the Mariners, they have their top five starters healthy for the first time, but this road trip exposed their secret: Their rotation is vastly overrated. The Mariners are 26th in rotation ERA on the road. Bryan Woo is the only starter of those five with an ERA under 5.00 on the road. Logan Gilbert has a 2.22 ERA at home and 6.00 on the road. Luis Castillo‘s road OPS is nearly 300 points higher than it is at home. They pitch well at home because T-Mobile Park is such a pitcher-friendly park. The Mariners still have two road trips remaining: a nine-game trip to Cleveland, Tampa and Atlanta, and then a six-game trip to Kansas City and Houston.

VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Both concerns are legitimate. The Astros’ offense hasn’t been terrible this season, but it rates as middle of the pack, and Correa is replacing the injured Isaac Paredes, so he’s not an upgrade. Seattle’s rotation struggles on the road — and lack of bullpen depth — are perhaps an even bigger concern. The season series is tied 5-5. FanGraphs projects a dead heat for the division title. The teams will meet once more in Houston during the second-to-last weekend of the regular season — and that series might decide the AL West.

Overreaction: The Royals will make the playoffs

As the Red Sox, Astros and Mariners have stumbled over the past 10 games, it opened the door for the Royals, who won five in a row and seven of eight to inch closer in the wild-card race (with Cleveland right there, as well). Bobby Witt Jr. is raking in August, Vinnie Pasquantino has been crushing home runs and, further proof of the unpredictability of the trade deadline, Mike Yastrzemski and Adam Frazier, two seemingly minor pickups, have been outstanding.

The Royals are doing this without Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic, but Noah Cameron continues to pitch well and fellow rookie Ryan Bergert, who came over in the Freddy Fermin trade, has delivered three good starts. Just like last year’s team, the Royals have that spark of optimism rising at the right time.

VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION. We’ll learn more about the Royals with this weekend’s series in Detroit and then the rematch next weekend in Kansas City. Otherwise, however, their schedule is pretty soft the rest of the way, including a season-ending road trip to Anaheim and Sacramento against two teams that will be playing out the string. The vibes are good. The Royals will sneak in as a wild-card team.

Whew. That was some weekend. The Milwaukee Brewers kept winning — until they finally lost. The New York Mets kept losing — until they finally won. The Los Angeles Dodgers made a big statement, the Philadelphia Phillies suffered a crushing injury, and the Chicago Cubs managed to win a series even though their bats remain cold.

What’s going on with these National League contenders? With fan bases in euphoria or despair, let’s make some verdicts on those current states of overreaction.

Overreaction: The Brewers are unquestionably MLB’s best team

“Unquestionably” is a loaded word, especially since we’re writing this right after the Brewers reeled off 14 consecutive victories and won a remarkable 29 of 33 games. They became just the 11th team this century to win at least 14 in a row, and you don’t fluke your way to a 14-game winning streak: Each of the previous 10 teams to win that many in a row made the playoffs, and four won 100 games. Baseball being baseball, however, none won the World Series.

The Brewers were just the sixth team this century to win 29 of 33. Cleveland won 30 of 33 in 2017, riding a 22-game winning streak that began in late August. That team, which finished with 102 wins but lost the wild-card series to the New York Yankees, resembled these Brewers as a small-market, scrappy underdog. The Dodgers in 2017 and 2022 and the A’s in 2001 and 2002 also won 29 of 33. None of these teams won the World Series, either.

For the season, the Brewers have five more wins than the Detroit Tigers while easily leading the majors in run differential at plus-168, with the Cubs a distant second at plus-110. Those figures seem to suggest the Brewers are clearly the best team, with a nice balance of starting pitching (No. 1 in ERA), relief pitching (No. 10 in ERA and No. 8 in win probability added), offense (No. 1 in runs scored), defense (No. 7 in defensive runs saved) and baserunning (No. 2 in stolen bases). None of their position players were All-Stars, but other than shortstop Joey Ortiz the Brewers roll out a lineup that usually features eight average-or-better hitters, with Christian Yelich heating up and Andrew Vaughn on a tear since he joined the club.

On the other hand, via Clay Davenport’s third-order wins and losses, which project a team’s winning percentage based on underlying statistics adjusted for quality of opponents, the Brewers are neck-and-neck with the Cubs, with both teams a few projected wins behind the Yankees. Essentially, the Brewers have scored more runs and allowed fewer than might otherwise be expected based on statistics. Indeed, the Brewers lead the majors with a .288 average with runners in scoring position while holding their opponents to the third-lowest average with runners in scoring position.

Those underlying stats, though, include the first four games of the season, when the Brewers went 0-4 and allowed 47 runs. Several of those relievers who got pounded early on are no longer in the bullpen, and ever since the Brewers sorted out their relief arms, the pen has been outstanding: It’s sixth in ERA and third in lowest OPS allowed since May 1.

Then factor in that the Brewers now have Brandon Woodruff and Jacob Misiorowski in the rotation (although Misiorowski struggled in his last start following a two-week stint on the injured list). The Brewers are also the best baserunning team in the majors, which leads to a few extra runs above expectation.

VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION. The Brewers look like the most well-rounded team in the majors, particularly if Yelich and Vaughn keep providing power in the middle of the order. They have played well against good teams: 6-0 against the Dodgers, 3-0 against the Phillies and Boston Red Sox, 4-2 against the New York Mets and 7-3 against the Cincinnati Reds. They’re 5-4 against the Cubs with four games left in the five-game series. None of this guarantees a World Series, but they’re on pace to win 100 games because they are the best team going right now.

Overreaction: Pete Crow-Armstrong‘s struggles are a big concern

On July 30, PCA went 3-for-4 with two doubles and two runs in a 10-3 victory for the Cubs over the Brewers. He was hitting .272/.309/.559, playing electrifying defense in center field, and was the leader in the NL MVP race with 5.7 fWAR, more than a win higher than Fernando Tatis Jr. and Shohei Ohtani. The Brewers had started to get hot, but the Cubs, after leading the NL Central most of the season, were just a game behind in the standings.

July 31 was an off day. Then the calendar flipped to August and Crow-Armstrong entered a slump that has featured no dying quails, no gorks, no ground balls with eyes. He’s 8-for-52 in August with no home runs, one RBI and two runs scored. The Cubs, averaging 5.3 runs per game through the end of July, are at just 2.75 runs per game in August and have seen the Brewers build a big lead in the division.

Crow-Armstrong’s slump isn’t necessarily a surprise. Analysts have been predicting regression for some time due to one obvious flaw in PCA’s game: He swings at everything. He has the fifth-highest chase rate among qualified batters, swinging at over 42% of pitches out of the strike zone. It seemed likely that it was only a matter of time before pitchers figured out how to exploit Crow-Armstrong’s aggressiveness.

Doubling down on the regression predictions, PCA has produced strong power numbers despite a below-average hard-hit rate (44th percentile) and average exit velocity (47th percentile). Although raw power isn’t always necessary to produce extra-base power — see Jose Altuve — those metrics were a red flag that PCA might have been overachieving.

VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION. OK, here’s the odd thing: PCA’s chase rate has improved in August to just 28%, but that hasn’t translated to success. His hard-hit rate isn’t much lower than it was the rest of the season (although his average fly ball distance has dropped about 20 feet). His struggles against left-handers are real: After slugging .600 against them in April, he has hit .186 and slugged .390 against them since May 1. He’ll start hitting again at some point, but it’s reasonable to assume he’s not going to hit like he did from April through July.

It’s not all on PCA, however. Kyle Tucker has been just as bad in August (.148, no home runs, one RBI). Michael Busch is hitting .151. Seiya Suzuki has only one home run. Those four had carried the offense, and all are scuffling at once. For the Cubs to rebound, they need this entire group to get back on track. Put it this way: The Cubs have won just three of their past eight series — and those were against the Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles and Chicago White Sox.

Overreaction: The Mets are doomed and will miss the playoffs

On July 27, the Mets completed a three-game sweep of the San Francisco Giants to improve to 62-44, holding a 1½-game lead over the Phillies in the NL East. According to FanGraphs, New York’s odds of winning the division stood at 55% and its chances of making the playoffs were nearly 97%. A few days later, the Mets reinforced the bullpen — the club’s biggest weakness — with Ryan Helsley and Tyler Rogers at the trade deadline (after already acquiring Gregory Soto).

It’s never that easy with the Mets though, is it? The San Diego Padres swept them. The Cleveland Guardians swept them. The Brewers swept them. Helsley lost three games and blew a lead in another outing. The rotation has a 6.22 ERA in August. The Mets lost 14 of 16 before finally taking the final two games against the Seattle Mariners this past weekend to temporarily ease the panic level from DEFCON 1 to DEFCON 2. The Phillies have a comfortable lead in the division and the Mets have dropped to the third wild-card position, just one game ahead of the Reds. The team with the highest payroll in the sport is in very real danger of missing the playoffs.

VERDICT: OVERREACTION. The bullpen issues are still a concern given Helsley’s struggles, and Rogers has fanned just one of the 42 batters he has faced since joining the Mets. Still, this team is loaded with talent, as reflected in FanGraphs’ playoffs odds, which gave the Mets an 86% chance of making the postseason entering Monday (with the Reds at 14%). One note, however: The Reds lead the season series 2 games to 1, which gives them the tiebreaker edge if the teams finish with the same record. A three-game set in Cincinnati in early September looms as one of the biggest series the rest of the season. Mets fans have certainly earned the right to brood over the team’s current state of play, but the team remains favored to at least squeak out a wild card.

Overreaction: Zack Wheeler’s absence is a big problem for the Phillies

The Phillies’ ace just went on the IL because of a blood clot near his right shoulder, with no timetable on a potential return. The injury is serious enough that his availability for the rest of the season is in jeopardy. Manager Rob Thomson said the team has enough rotation depth to battle on without Wheeler, but there are some other issues there as well:

• Ranger Suarez has a 5.86 ERA in six starts since the All-Star break.

• Aaron Nola was activated from the IL on Sunday to replace Wheeler for his first MLB start in three months and gave up six runs in 2⅓ innings, raising his season ERA to 6.92.

• Taijuan Walker has a 3.34 ERA but also a 4.73 FIP and probably isn’t someone you would feel comfortable starting in a playoff series.

• Even Jesus Luzardo has been inconsistent all season, with a 4.21 ERA.

Minus Wheeler, that arguably leaves Cristopher Sanchez as the team’s only sure-thing reliable starter at the moment. Though a trip to the playoffs certainly looks secure, all this opens the door for the Mets to make it a race for the division title.

VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Making the playoffs is one thing, but it’s also about peaking at the right time, and given the scary nature of Wheeler’s injury, the Phillies might not end up peaking when they need to. Nola certainly can’t be counted on right now and Suarez has suddenly struggled a bit to miss bats. There’s time here for Nola and Suarez to fix things, and the bullpen has been strengthened with the additions of Jhoan Duran and David Robertson, but even with Wheeler, the Phillies are just 22-18 since the beginning of July. Indeed, their ultimate hopes might rest on an offense that has let them down the past two postseasons and hasn’t been great this season aside from Kyle Schwarber. If they don’t score runs, it won’t matter who is on the mound.

Overreaction: The Dodgers just buried the Padres with their three-game sweep

It was a statement series: The Dodgers, battled, bruised and slumping, had fallen a game behind the Padres in the NL West. But they swept the Padres at Dodger Stadium behind stellar outings from Clayton Kershaw and Blake Snell, and a clutch Mookie Betts home run to cap a rally from a 4-0 deficit. Still the kings of the NL West, right?

After all, the Dodgers are finally rolling out that dream rotation: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, Snell and Kershaw are all healthy and at full strength for the first time this season. Only Roki Sasaki is missing. Yamamoto has been solid all season, Ohtani ramped up to 80 pitches in his last start, Glasnow has a 2.50 ERA since returning from the IL in July, Snell has reeled off back-to-back scoreless starts, and even Kershaw, while not racking up many strikeouts, has lowered his season ERA to 3.01. That group should carry the Dodgers to their 12th division title in the past 13 seasons.

VERDICT: OVERREACTION. Calm down. One great series does not mean the Dodgers are suddenly fixed or that the Padres will fade away. The Dodgers’ bullpen is still battling injuries, Betts still has a sub-.700 OPS and injuries have forced them to play Alex Freeland, Miguel Rojas and Buddy Kennedy in the infield. Check back after next weekend, when the Padres host the Dodgers for their final regular-season series of 2025.

NEW YORK — The Yankees’ troublesome struggles against the Red Sox this season continued Saturday in an ugly 12-1 loss at Yankee Stadium that began with Cy Young candidate Garrett Crochet shutting them down over seven innings and ended with them hearing boos from the home crowd during a disastrous seven-run ninth inning.

It was the Yankees’ eighth straight defeat at the hands of their rivals this season. Overall, the Yankees are 1-8 against Boston this season. Add their 3-7 record against the first-place Toronto Blue Jays and the Yankees are 4-15 against the top two teams in the American League East.

“It’s not ideal,” Yankees slugger Giancarlo Stanton said. “It’s unacceptable. We all know that.”

The Yankees returned to the Bronx for this four-game series on a five-game winning streak, having won seven of their previous eight games against the Minnesota Twins, St. Louis Cardinals and Tampa Bay Rays, a trio of foes that won’t partake in October baseball this season. They had an opportunity to build on their 1½-game lead on Boston for the top AL Wild Card Series spot. Instead, they’ll enter Sunday 1½ games behind the Red Sox, looking to avoid a four-game series sweep.

“We’re definitely — I can only speak for myself — [I’m] definitely angry,” said Yankees star Aaron Judge, who remains limited to designated hitter because of an elbow injury. “Especially against your rivals, don’t like the showing we’ve had here at home. So, just got to step up. That’s it. Got to step up.

“Everyone in this room’s got to play a little bit better. Pick it up a notch and go out there and take care of business tomorrow. There’s nothing we can do about the past 100-something games we played. We got to focus on what we can do now and that’s all you can do.”

New York’s problems this weekend begin with the offense. The Yankees have scored just five runs in the three games, a meager display after blasting a record 14 home runs in their two-game series sweep of the Rays.

On Friday, Red Sox right-hander Brayan Bello held them without a run over seven innings before Garrett Whitlock and Aroldis Chapman — one of the best one-two bullpen punches in the majors — shut the door on a 1-0 victory. Crochet duplicated Bello’s output on Saturday, tossing seven scoreless innings with 11 strikeouts. He exited with a 2.38 ERA and 207 strikeouts in 26 starts this season, continuing his push to challenge Tarik Skubal for the AL Cy Young Award.

“We got to play better,” Judge said. “That’s what it comes down to. Coaches can’t fix that. Fans can’t fix that. Media can’t fix that. It’s the players in this room. We got to step up and that’s what it comes down to.”

On the other side, Will Warren, struggling to command his off-speed offerings, relied on his fastball. The Red Sox noticed and pounced, chasing the rookie after he surrendered five runs on seven hits over four-plus innings. The Yankees remained within striking distance, down 5-1, and stitched together their best threat in the eighth inning, but Stanton and Jazz Chisholm Jr. struck out to end the frame with runners on the corners.

“We’re not taking advantage when we got guys on base and can’t get some momentum,” Stanton said. “And putting the ball in play in general. [We’re not] playing crisp baseball.”

Any chance of a comeback was crushed when the Red Sox tallied seven runs off right-hander Paul Blackburn, who had thrown 2⅓ scoreless innings to begin his first outing in pinstripes. The outburst was aided by a throwing error from Anthony Volpe, who is 1-for-29 at the plate over his past eight games, and miscommunication that led to Blackburn balking in a run.

Blackburn, acquired on Thursday, was left in the game to wear it. He finally secured the third out on his 71st pitch, drawing sarcastic cheers from the Yankees fans who remained for the rout and another loss to the Red Sox.

“Sucks,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said. “Feels really crappy. We got to get past it. I mean, we can sit here and dwell on it. We got to play better. We got to play better against these quality opponents in our division. But we can’t go erase what’s been a really crappy weekend so far for us other than putting our best foot forward tomorrow.”