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Britain’s economic recovery is expected to slow over coming months thanks to staff shortages and supply chain disruption, according to a new forecast from a leading business group.

Official figures show UK GDP grew by 4.8% in the second quarter but the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) predicts this will slow to 2.8% in the third quarter and 1.6% in the last three months of 2021.

The BCC also warned of the “real danger” that the £12bn National Insurance hike announced this week could further stifle Britain’s bounce back.

BoE governor - Andrew Bailey
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Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey said he feared worker shortages could persist

The warning about the impact of labour shortages comes a day after Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey said he feared the problem could persist.

HGV drivers and meat processing workers are among the areas where shortages have been identified.

Supply issues have affected a number of well-known businesses including Ikea, McDonald’s, Greggs and Wetherspoons.

The BCC’s forecast comes on the same day as a new report from the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) showed recruiters and employers faced an unprecedented decline in the availability of candidates for roles.

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According to the BCC’s new forecast, Britain will still post annual growth of 7.1% for 2021 as a whole, which would be the strongest on records going back to 1949.

However the slowdown in the pace of the recovery – after last year’s pandemic-driven recession – means it is now not expected to reach pre-COVID levels until the first quarter of next year.

Suren Thiru, head of economics at the British Chambers of Commerce, said the economy remained “on course for a historic revival” this year thanks to the release of pent-up consumer demand as well as higher government spending.

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‘Perfect storm’ for retailers as Brexit and pandemic hit, says babywear boss

“However, our latest outlook also points to a loss of momentum  in the coming months as staff shortages, supply chain disruption and rising cost pressures limit output from many sectors,” he added.

“A prolonged period of acute supply and staff shortages could derail the recovery by forcing firms into a more permanent reduction in their operating capacity, eroding their ability to fulfil orders and meet customer demand.”

Hannah Essex, the BCC’s co-executive director, said: ”There is a real danger the National Insurance increase announced this week could stifle the recovery.”

The forecast came as the monthly UK report on jobs from the REC and KPMG showed a further rapid increase in hiring in August, spurred by improved confidence in the economic outlook.

At the same time a lack of availability of workers spurred sharp increases in starting salaries.

Neil Carberry, Chief Executive of the REC, said: “The number of staff available to start jobs fell at another new record rate, deepening the current labour shortage.

“Recruiters are working around the clock, placing more people into work than ever as these figures show.

“Switching the entire economy on over the summer has created a unique demand spike, and a short-term crisis.

“But it would be a mistake for businesses to think of this as only a short-term issue.

“A number of factors mean that the UK labour market will remain tight for several years to come.”

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Russia sanctions-busting? Big questions remain over UK car exports

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Russia sanctions-busting? Big questions remain over UK car exports

The extraordinary, unprecedented and largely unexplained flows of millions of pounds of British luxury cars into states neighbouring Russia continued in February, according to new official data.

Some £26m worth of British cars were exported to Azerbaijan in February, according to data from HM Revenue & Customs.

The numbers show that in the latest quarter this former Soviet state with developing economy status was the 17th biggest destination for UK cars, bigger than long-established export markets such as Ireland, Portugal and Qatar.

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Azerbaijan’s ascent has coincided almost to the month with the imposition of sanctions on the export of cars to Russia.

British cars are banned from being sent into Russia, both as “dual use” goods, which could be repurposed as weapons, and, for any cars over the value of £42,000, under specific luxury goods restrictions.

However, even as UK car exports to Russia plummeted to zero, they have risen sharply to states neighbouring Russia, including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia and, most notably of all, Azerbaijan.

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While it is impossible to prove where those shipments end up eventually, there is plentiful anecdotal evidence that these countries are being used as conduits to smuggle banned goods to Russia.

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The latest HMRC data shows that in the three months to February, the average value of the cars being sent to Azerbaijan was over £115,000, making this small, relatively poor economy one of the most high-value luxury car markets in the world – alongside Switzerland, Luxembourg and Saudi Arabia.

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The total value of UK car exports to Azerbaijan in the two years since the invasion of Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions is now £523m. That compares to £58m in the immediately preceding two years.

Britain’s motor lobby group, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), has insisted that this 800% increase can be explained by domestic factors in the Azerbaijani economy – and is not connected with Russian sanctions.

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March: British-made luxury cars still being bought by rich Russians

Read more:
UK-made cars are getting into Russia despite sanctions
2,000% increase in car sales to Azerbaijan ‘has nothing to do with Russia’

An SMMT spokesperson said: “UK carmakers comply with all trade sanctions and would condemn any party putting that commitment at risk. Car exports from UK factories to Azerbaijan have grown since 2019 due to multiple factors, including significant new model launches, pent-up demand and a growing domestic appetite for UK luxury cars. Indeed, UN data shows that just two cars of any origin have been officially exported from Azerbaijan to Russia this year.

“We have never ruled out the possibility that third parties might exploit any vulnerabilities in the sanction regime, and manufacturers do everything in their power to prevent this. Any UK-built vehicle on sale in Russia found its way there without their authorisation. This is a fast-moving global issue covering products from multiple sectors in many countries deploying sanctions, and tackling any vulnerabilities requires a coordinated, global response.”

However, while United Nations (UN) data suggests the quantity of cars being officially exported to Russia remains low, that same evidence suggests that, far from behaving like a normal car market, Azerbaijan does seem to be funnelling cars off elsewhere into Central Asia.

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Contrary to the SMMT’s analysis, which suggests the car exports can be explained by domestic factors, car exports from Azerbaijan have risen by 4,800% since the invasion of Russia, with most of the cars destined (according to UN data) for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia and the United Arab Emirates.

According to UK government sources, these states are understood to be widely used as conduits for goods into Russia.

Cars are not the only British goods to have seen a large spike in exports to Central Asia and the Caucasus – so too have components and machinery used to make weapons. In a visit to Kyrgyzstan this week, Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron admitted that Russia is using central Asian countries to sidestep sanctions and build its “war machine”.

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Post Office inquiry: Former complaints handler executive says she never ‘knowingly’ did anything wrong

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Post Office inquiry: Former complaints handler executive says she never 'knowingly' did anything wrong

A former top Post Office executive has told the Horizon scandal inquiry she never “knowingly” did anything wrong and did not remember a 2010 email saying that cash balances in sub-postmasters’ branch accounts could be remotely accessed.

Angela van den Bogerd, who held various roles over 35 years at the organisation, made the comments after opening her evidence on Thursday by saying she was “truly, truly sorry” for the “devastation” caused to wrongly convicted sub-postmasters.

Her roles at the Post Office included handling complaints about its Horizon software, which was provided by Japanese firm Fujitsu.

More than 700 Post Office managers were prosecuted between 1999 and 2015, after the system made it seem like money was missing from branches. At the time, the company insisted Horizon was robust.

Ms van der Bogerd, who was played by Coronation Street actress Katherine Kelly in the ITV drama Mr Bates Vs The Post Office, had previously not spoken publicly since a 2019 High Court case.

At the time, Judge Peter Fraser criticised her testimony and said she “did not give me frank evidence, and sought to obfuscate matters, and mislead me”.

Jason Beer KC, lead counsel to the inquiry, challenged Ms van den Bogerd’s opening statement, as he accused her of not saying sorry for her own role in the scandal.

Ms van den Bogerd, who resigned as the Post Office’s business improvement director in 2020, said she regretted missing significant documents and apologised for “not getting to the answer more quickly”.

She said: “But with the evidence I had and the parameters of my role at the time, I did the best I could to the best of my ability.”

Ms van den Bogerd added: “I didn’t knowingly do anything wrong and I would never knowingly do anything wrong.”

Read more on this story:
Review ordered into another Post Office IT system

Scandal victim demands jail for those who denied her justice
Leaked Post Office recordings revealed

The inquiry heard that Ms van den Bogerd was sent an email in December 2010 informing her Fujitsu could remotely amend cash balances in branch accounts via Horizon.

She told the inquiry she had no memory of it and only became aware of the issue in a January 2011 email.

The inquiry was shown a transcript of a meeting that same month between her and sub-postmistress Rachpal Athwal, who was sacked after being wrongly accused of stealing £710 before being reinstated.

In the meeting, Ms van den Bogerd said Horizon could not be accessed remotely by anyone from the Post Office, without mentioning that Fujitsu could, the inquiry heard.

Mr Beer asked: “Are you saying that what you said overall there is accurate?”

Ms van den Bogerd replied: “So that is accurate. I go on to talk later about Fujitsu, I believe”. Mr Beer said it was inaccurate because she had not given the full picture.

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Scandal ‘tip of the iceberg’

The inquiry also heard that, prior to a High Court case in 2019, Ms van den Bogerd made a witness statement in 2018 in which she said the first she knew of the possibility of inserting transactions into the system remotely was in the year or so before.

Mr Beer told the inquiry: “That was false.”

She replied: “Well, at the time I didn’t think it was.”

Pressed further on the issue, she said the messaging on remote access was “constantly changing” and that colleagues had been “very strong” that such access was “impossible”.

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‘I have had breakdowns’

Ms van den Bogerd was also asked about an October 2014 email she and other senior staff were sent by Post Office media officer Melanie Corfield, which discussed what the response should be if anyone asked about remote access to Horizon.

The email said: “Our current line if we are asked about remote access potentially being used to change branch data/transactions is simply: ‘This is not and never has been possible’.”

Mr Beer said: “You knew that was false from multiple sources by then, by now, didn’t you?”

Ms van den Bogerd appeared flustered, before replying: “Clearly I was aware of that and just didn’t pick this up… it didn’t register with me at the time, but obviously from what we’ve discussed then this was incorrect terms of reference of a flow of information, yes.”

She added she was “certainly not trying to cover up… it wasn’t just me, there were other people party to the same information”.

Meanwhile, earlier in the hearing, the former executive said she agreed with Mr Beer that using words such as “exception” or “anomaly” to describe computer bugs had been an “attempt to control the narrative”.

The inquiry continues.

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Post Office inquiry: Former complaints handler executive says she never ‘knowingly’ did anything wrong

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Post Office inquiry: Former complaints handler executive says she never 'knowingly' did anything wrong

A former top Post Office executive has told the inquiry into the Horizon scandal that she never “knowingly” did anything wrong.

Angela van den Bogerd, who held various roles over 35 years at the organisation, made the comment after opening her evidence on Thursday by saying she was “truly, truly sorry” for the “devastation” caused to wrongly convicted sub-postmasters.

Her roles at the Post Office included handling complaints about its Horizon software, which was provided by Japanese firm Fujitsu.

More than 700 Post Office managers were prosecuted between 1999 and 2015, after the system made it seem like money was missing from branches. At the time, the company insisted Horizon was robust.

Ms van der Bogerd, who was played by Coronation Street actress Katherine Kelly in the ITV drama Mr Bates Vs The Post Office, had previously not spoken publicly since a 2019 High Court case.

At the time, Judge Peter Fraser criticised her testimony and said she “did not give me frank evidence, and sought to obfuscate matters, and mislead me”.

Jason Beer KC, lead counsel to the inquiry, challenged Ms van den Bogerd’s opening statement, as he accused her of not saying sorry for her own role in the scandal.

Ms van den Bogerd, who resigned as the Post Office’s business improvement director in 2020, said she regretted missing significant documents and apologised for “not getting to the answer more quickly”.

She said: “But with the evidence I had and the parameters of my role at the time, I did the best I could to the best of my ability.”

Ms van den Bogerd added: “I didn’t knowingly do anything wrong and I would never knowingly do anything wrong.”

Read more on this story:
Review ordered into another Post Office IT system

Scandal victim demands jail for those who denied her justice
Leaked Post Office recordings revealed

The inquiry heard that Ms van den Bogerd was sent an email in December 2010 informing her Fujitsu could remotely amend cash balances in branch accounts via Horizon.

She told the inquiry she had no memory of it and only became aware of the issue in a January 2011 email.

The inquiry was shown a transcript of a meeting that same month between her and sub-postmistress Rachpal Athwal, who was sacked after being wrongly accused of stealing £710 before being reinstated.

In the meeting, Ms van den Bogerd said Horizon could not be accessed remotely by anyone from the Post Office, without mentioning that Fujitsu could, the inquiry heard.

Mr Beer asked: “Are you saying that what you said overall there is accurate?”

Ms van den Bogerd replied: “So that is accurate. I go on to talk later about Fujitsu, I believe”. Mr Beer said it was inaccurate because she had not given the full picture.

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Scandal ‘tip of the iceberg’

The inquiry also heard that, prior to a High Court case in 2019, Ms van den Bogerd made a witness statement in 2018 in which she said the first she knew of the possibility of inserting transactions into the system remotely was in the year or so before.

Mr Beer told the inquiry: “That was false.”

She replied: “Well, at the time I didn’t think it was.”

Pressed further on the issue, she said the messaging on remote access was “constantly changing” and that colleagues had been “very strong” that such access was “impossible”.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

‘I have had breakdowns’

Ms van den Bogerd was also asked about an October 2014 email she and other senior staff were sent by Post Office media officer Melanie Corfield, which discussed what the response should be if anyone asked about remote access to Horizon.

The email said: “Our current line if we are asked about remote access potentially being used to change branch data/transactions is simply: ‘This is not and never has been possible’.”

Mr Beer said: “You knew that was false from multiple sources by then, by now, didn’t you?”

Ms van den Bogerd appeared flustered, before replying: “Clearly I was aware of that and just didn’t pick this up… it didn’t register with me at the time, but obviously from what we’ve discussed then this was incorrect terms of reference of a flow of information, yes.”

She added she was “certainly not trying to cover up… it wasn’t just me, there were other people party to the same information”.

Meanwhile, earlier in the hearing, the former executive said she agreed with Mr Beer that using words such as “exception” or “anomaly” to describe computer bugs had been an “attempt to control the narrative”.

The inquiry continues.

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