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Coronavirus cases could fall significantly in November without any restrictions being reintroduced, modelling seen by the government suggests.

Experts at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) have predicted that – even without the government’s ‘Plan B’ – COVID cases, hospital admissions and deaths in England will peak in November and start to fall rapidly to much lower levels by Christmas.

According to their modelling, if the government reintroduces restrictions, delaying ‘back-to-normal’ behaviour until the spring, there will still be a drop in the coming weeks, but rates will rise again much faster next year.

Professor Paul Hunter, an epidemiologist at the University of East Anglia, told Sky News the modelling suggests the UK is close to ‘endemic equilibrium’.

Modelling shows rates dropping in November. Credit: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
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Modelling shows rates dropping in November. Credit: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

“Once you reach endemic equilibrium, non-pharmaceutical interventions (social distancing and mask wearing) stop having much of an effect.”

He said the main reason behind this is immunity levels.

“At the moment we’re hearing a lot of voices calling for increased restrictions,” he added.

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“But the modellers are predicting incredibly low numbers by mid-December in pretty much all of their scenarios.

“So if they’re suggesting that even if we do nothing cases are going to decline substantially, more restrictions don’t seem to be the appropriate response.”

The LSHTM findings were one of several reports presented to the government’s Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-MO) last week, who warned that they could be “too optimistic”.

This is because the data they used does not take into account how certain events can change the way people behave – such as Euro 2020 or Christmas.

SPI-MO’s latest report cautions: “Increases in transmission around the time of the Euro 2020 football matches were not visible in the data sources.

“The mid-winter festive period usually sees different mixing behaviour that could have a similar effect to the Euro 2020 football matches.

“If similar were to happen again… it is possible that these modelling results may be too optimistic.”

They also do not take into account the new mutation of the Delta variant – AY4.2 – which scientists say could be 10% more infectious.

Similar modelling done by the University of Warwick uses a “more precautionary behaviour metric” and takes into account other winter pressures such as flu.

But despite the differences, Warwick, like LSHTM, predicts that a delay in ‘normal’ behaviour would see a more gradual decline in hospital admissions than if it stayed as it is.

It also predicts that “later, a combination of waning immunity, behaviour change and seasonality would result in a further wave”.

Warwick said the timing of another winter wave is “highly uncertain” but could peak anywhere between January and May.

SPI-MO advisers say that whatever happens to coronavirus case rates this winter, it is “highly unlikely” hospital admissions will peak as high as they did last winter.

They believe vaccine protection would have to decline significantly for changes in public behaviour to result in a repeat of last year.

The LSHTM also models potential drops in vaccine protection and the uptake of booster vaccines, but these both still point to a drop in rates this winter.

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If COVID immunity offered by vaccines wanes far more than it has so far, modellers predict there will be a much bigger peak next spring.

But Professor Hunter adds that booster vaccines – currently being given to the over-50s, NHS and social care workers and the clinically vulnerable – are proving “a lot more effective than we were expecting”.

A recent study by Pfizer showed that a third dose of its vaccine offers 95.6% protection against symptomatic infection.

“If that’s the case, then possibly there will be an increase in the speeding up of that reduction in rates,” Professor Hunter said.

The government has repeatedly resisted calls to reintroduce mandatory face masks and working from home as part of a Plan B to protect the NHS this winter.

Health Secretary Sajid Javid told Times Radio on Monday: “At the moment… we don’t think the data shows that we need to move to Plan B but that said, it’s really important that we all keep playing our part and that means getting vaccinated, especially if you’re eligible for the booster jab please come forward, and also just being cautious on a daily basis and following the advice.”

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UK considered using Iraq to process asylum seekers in Rwanda-type deal, leaked documents show

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UK considered using Iraq to process asylum seekers in Rwanda-type deal, leaked documents show

The government at one point considered using Iraq to process asylum seekers – like the Rwanda scheme – according to documents seen by Sky News.

This could have seen people sent from the UK to a country the government advises against all travel to.

The two countries already have a returns agreement – but only for people that are from Iraq.

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According to leaked correspondence between high-ranking officials, the Iraqi returns commitments were made with a “request for discretion” and no publicity.

The country was willing to move forward but did not want a formal or public agreement.

The current travel advice to Iraq on the Foreign Office website simply advises against “all travel to parts of Iraq”. However, according to the document, negotiations were fairly advanced and described in one table as “good recent progress with Iraq”.

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Other government aims included enhancing cooperation with the Iranian Embassy in order to enhance returns arrangements for migrants and potential asylum seekers.

Returns agreements are also in the works for Eritrea and Ethiopia, according to documents about work undertaken by the Home Office and Foreign Office that relates to countries with the highest number of nationals arriving to the UK by small boats.

In a tranche of internal government documents seen by Sky News, even from the earliest stage of the Rwanda policy, Downing Street advisers knew there were serious problems with their proposals.

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First Rwanda relocation raids carried out

There are even private admissions that many people arriving here on small boats did so without the assistance of criminal gangs – despite their communications strategy.

Comparisons were also made to Australia’s response – to what Downing Street officials understood to be a comparable “smaller problem” than in the UK and admitted it had cost billions of Australian dollars in order for their returns processes to be fully operational.

Read more:
Man, 38, arrested in connection with small boat crossings
Sunak says migrants going to Ireland shows Rwanda scheme is working

In one document submitted to the Home Office, some of the highest-ranking officials at the time wrote that their guidance was to be “prepared to pay over the odds” to get the policy up and running. And that the initial offer from Rwanda was a “modest sum”.

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Whitehall’s official spending watchdog has priced the cost of sending asylum seekers to Rwanda at £1.8m per person for the first 300 people the government deports to Kigali.

It also disclosed that since April 2022 the Home Office has paid £220m into Rwanda’s economic transformation and integration fund, which is designed to support economic growth in Rwanda, and will continue to make payments to cover asylum processing and operational costs for individuals relocated to Rwanda.

It will also pay further amounts of £50m over the next year and an additional £50m the following year.

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A government source said: “The Home Office is spending millions every day accommodating migrants in hotels – that’s not right or fair. We’re taking action to put an end to this costly and dangerous cycle. Doing nothing is not a free option – we must act if we want to stop the boats and save lives.

“The UK is continuing to work with a range of international partners to tackle global illegal migration challenges. Our Rwanda partnership is a pioneering response to the global challenge of illegal migration, and we will get flights off the ground to Rwanda in the next nine to eleven weeks.”

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Woman arrested after baby goes into cardiac arrest at Legoland

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Woman arrested after baby goes into cardiac arrest at Legoland

A woman has been arrested on suspicion of neglect after a baby boy went into cardiac arrest at Legoland Windsor on Thursday, police have said.

The five-month-old was taken to hospital in a critical condition after the incident at around 1pm on 2 May, Thames Valley Police said.

The force arrested the woman, 27, who is from Witham in Essex, on Friday on suspicion of neglecting a child to cause unnecessary injury.

She has been bailed until 26 July and detectives say they are not looking for anyone else in connection with Thursday’s events. The child is still in hospital, police added.

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Investigating officer Detective Constable Zoe Eele, of the force’s police child abuse investigation unit, said: “We are investigating a distressing incident involving a very young child at Legoland Windsor earlier this week.

“Firstly, our thoughts are with the family of the boy who is in a critical condition in hospital after suffering a cardiac arrest. We are supporting them as best we can at this extremely difficult time.

“We are working closely with the team at Legoland Windsor Resort but would like to speak to anyone who may have information about this incident, specifically anyone who was queueing for the coastguard HQ boat ride between around 11.30am and 12.45pm.”

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Cancer innovation is saving lives – but NHS is struggling to meet rising demands

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Cancer innovation is saving lives - but NHS is struggling to meet rising demands

“The moment you have it yourself you hear it everywhere, but for something so prevalent it’s not talked about at all,” says Patrick Keane. His right arm is plugged into a tube that runs up to a bag of clear liquid in a treatment room at the Royal Free Hospital in north London, one of the UK’s largest cancer treatment centres.

The 56-year-old’s future is dependent on the slow drip of chemicals that attack the cancer cells in his body. If the tumour in his bowel can be reduced by chemotherapy, it can then be more easily surgically removed.

Returning to duties last week after his own diagnosis, the King chose to highlight innovations in cancer research and the thousands who like him are living under the shadow of the disease.

Patrick is one. Indeed, he got his cancer diagnosis in late January, around the same time as the King, and he is taking part in an innovative clinical trial that may help future patients.

Patrick Keane is taking part in an innovative clinical trial that may help future patients
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Patrick Keane is taking part in an innovative clinical trial that may help future patients

In this election year, charities are calling on political parties to produce long-term plans for tackling the disease as part of their manifesto pledges. While innovation is saving lives, there is a looming budget shortfall.

Cancer Research UK, to whom the King became patron last week, estimates there will be a £1bn gap in research funding within the next decade. This is in part due to inflation combined with the cost of living crisis impacting donations to cancer charities.

Add to this that the number of us getting cancer is increasing, projected to go up by a fifth by 2040.

The Royal Free London NHS Trust, which receives the highest number of cancer referrals in London at 50,000 a year, has seen a 10,000 increase in referrals since 2019.

It’s no surprise then that the NHS is missing targets for waiting times between urgent GP referrals and treatment.

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One in two of us will get cancer and, as Patrick knows too well, that word opens up a world of uncertainty. “The word carries so much baggage with it,” he says, and having it can send your mind to “some pretty dark places”.

He talks frankly about the treatment and its side effects, which after his first two rounds, have been minimal. “I didn’t have much of a head of hair to begin with,” he jokes.

Some of his hair has gone in patches, but asked what the hardest thing has been, he doesn’t hesitate: “My father passed away when I was 14. He died of cancer. I have 13-year-old twins so I couldn’t initially shift the thought – is this going to happen again? Passing 48, the age that my father died was a key milestone for me. My children being older than I was when my father passed away was another one.

“Nobody expects their dad to die. It’s a very unreal concept, and I’m not dying – but to try to have that conversation you know – ‘things will be fine.’ It’s very treatable.”

Two weeks after his third round of chemo, scans show the treatment has done its job, Patrick’s surgery can go ahead and is due to happen later this month.

Roopinder Gillmore, lead cancer physician at the Royal Free
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Roopinder Gillmore, lead cancer physician at the Royal Free

More survive cancer as technology advances

Cancer is more treatable now. More of us are surviving it because technology is advancing.

At the Royal Free that ranges from a new cutting-edge £8m PET scanner, which offers a faster more accurate diagnosis, to new drugs offering greater survival chances.

Lead cancer physician at the Royal Free, Roopinder Gillmore, told Sky News: “We are doing surgery quicker, more keyhole robotic surgery in this hospital. We do liver transplants for patients with primary liver cancer, we’re trialling that out in other cancer types which is really exciting.

“We are doing more specialised radiotherapy and for me, my thing is drug treatments, and they are exponentially increasing in terms of what we can offer our patients. The big thing is immunotherapy, we didn’t have that 15 years ago. It has completely changed the outlook for people with lung cancer and skin cancer.”

Backlogs and waiting times have increased

But for all the advances, backlogs and waiting times have built up since the pandemic. The latest NHS figures show 64% of patients received their first treatment within 62 days of an urgent GP referral. The target is 85%.

That stretch on resources has a knock-on impact on patients like 29-year-old Beaux Harris.

Beaux, an actor and dancer who teaches at The Manor Dance Studio in north London, has what is called a mutated BRCA1 gene, which means her chances of getting cancer dramatically increase in her 30s.

She has a 60% chance of getting ovarian cancer and a 90% chance of getting breast cancer.

So she has decided to get a preventative double mastectomy and a hysterectomy but, due to the backlog, she has a long wait.

Beaux Harris has a mutated gene which means her chances of getting cancer dramatically increase in her 30s
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Beaux Harris has a mutated gene which means her chances of getting cancer dramatically increase in her 30s

‘I feel like I’ve got a ticking time bomb on me’

She says: “I feel like I’ve got a ticking time bomb on me – and it is terrifying. The truth is it doesn’t really feel like a choice when you are presented with a figure like that – it’s like saying would you get on a plane with a 90% chance of it crashing? I know I wouldn’t.”

She has been told that waiting times on the NHS for her preventative treatment is two years at the earliest.

She says people on her online support groups have waited five years. She’s also been told there’s a high chance the operation could be cancelled at the last minute if a high-demand cancer patient needs the slot.

“I could get timed out,” she says. So, she is crowdfunding to get the £50,000 plus she needs to go private.

Beaux Harris

‘I would love to be worrying about things that every other 29-year-old is worrying about’

She might need more funds if she wants some sort of normality at the end of it.

She says: “If I have a hysterectomy now, I can’t have children. So, I’m also trying to raise money to freeze my eggs. Something that is offered on the NHS to cancer patients, but not to BRCA patients.”

She certainly doesn’t want to wait until she gets cancer. Ovarian cancer is known as the silent killer due to the difficulty in early detection.

Beaux’s grandmother, her mother, and her aunt all died of cancer because of the BRCA1 mutated gene, she hopes to be the first female in her family in generations to survive having it.

“I would love to be worrying about things that every other 29-year-old is worrying about,” she says. “I’ve got some bloody Olivia awards to win!”

Indeed, Beaux is using her talents putting on performances and doing tap dance sessions to raise money for her treatment.

In some ways it is taken for granted that, because it touches so many of us, most of the money raised for cancer research in this country comes from the British public, but charities say the government needs to play a bigger role in ensuring the UK continues to innovate and improve treatment for what remains the defining health issue of our time.

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