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The entire landscape of Major League Baseball is virtually guaranteed to change from one season to the next. The annual awards that were handed out over the course of this week are yet another example of that.

Just to pick one race, let’s go with the AL MVP competition. Just before the season, SportsBetting.com ranked the most likely candidates as Mike Trout of the Angels and Luis Robert of the White Sox. Based on what we saw in 2020 and, for Trout, over a multiyear period, the status of favorite for both made sense. Indeed, both played like MVPs while they were on the field, but injuries kept both players off the field so often that they were never factors in the race.

Meanwhile, eventual landslide AL winner Shohei Ohtani was tied for third in the futures market with the Yankees’ Aaron Judge. But the AL finalists in addition to Ohtani were further down the list, with Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. coming in tied for eighth (at 20-1) and Blue Jays teammate Marcus Semien off the board entirely, so somewhere south of 100-1.

That’s just one award, but that dynamic repeats for all of them, no matter where you’re getting your odds. The reason is simple: Predicting the future is hard. It’s hard in life. Hard in sports. Hard when it comes to teams. It’s especially hard when it comes to players.

Let’s do it anyway. Here’s a very early stab at the 2022 MLB awards races. How early? So early, that you might even call it way too early.

AL Rookie of the Year

My favorites: Bobby Witt Jr., Royals; Adley Rutschman, Orioles; Shane Baz, Rays

Witt and Rutschman are two of the consensus top prospects in the game. Both are on a trajectory for a 2022 debut after they played extremely well when they reached Triple-A last season. We don’t know how the current CBA negotiations are going to affect MLB service time as it relates to arbitration eligibility and free agency, so we don’t know if the Royals and Orioles are going to see any benefit in delaying the debuts of their top prospects.

Baz doesn’t carry that caveat because he debuted for the Rays in 2021, and he was dominant over his first three big league outings. He even earned a Game 2 start for Tampa Bay in its division series against the Red Sox. He figures to be a rotation fixture for the Rays going forward, and the Rookie of the Year formula is always an uncertain combination of opportunity and performance.

Early indications are that Witt seems like a no-brainer to break camp with the Royals next spring. There’s simply nothing left for him to prove in the minors, and the Royals are trying to win, so if Witt is part of their best configuration, they’ll want him out there as often as possible. Rutschman’s ETA is a little more unclear than that, and the Orioles are not yet pushing toward contention. It would be great to see a season-long battle between Witt and Rutschman, because it could be a memorable one.

We can’t forget about Seattle OF Julio Rodriguez, who just might be the best prospect of them all. He hit .347 with patience, power and speed across two levels for Mariners affiliates in 2021. He also starred for the Dominican Republic during the Tokyo Olympics. Still, Rodriguez doesn’t turn 21 until Dec. 29, and right now has reached only Double-A, where he played 46 games this past season. The Mariners will try to contend in 2022, but have decent outfield depth.

Rodriguez might well force his way onto Seattle’s opening day roster, but if not, then he’d start behind the favorites in what is shaping up as a tremendous AL rookie class. How tremendous? Among other top prospects who could play significant roles next season whom we haven’t even mentioned are Baltimore righty Grayson Rodriguez, Detroit hitting prospects Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene, and Kansas City catcher/slugger MJ Melendez.

Sleeper: Gabriel Moreno, Blue Jays

Moreno has rocketed up the prospect rankings by hitting everywhere he’s gone. Baseball America ranked Moreno as Toronto’s No. 8 prospect before last season and as the Jays’ second-best catching prospect behind Alejandro Kirk. By BA’s midseason rankings, Moreno held the No. 1 overall spot for the Jays. That’ll happen when you hit .367, get a smattering of Triple-A playing time at age 21 and keep on mashing during the Arizona Fall League. He lost development time to a thumb injury in 2021, and the Jays have Danny Jansen and Kirk as a nice combo behind the plate. Nevertheless, Moreno’s trajectory makes him a player to watch.

My pick: Witt. He’s the full package and should get a full season to show it.

NL Rookie of the Year

My favorites: Hunter Greene, Reds; Joey Bart, Giants; Brennen Davis, Cubs

It’s much harder to identify classic Rookie of the Year candidates on the NL side, but that’s not to say front-runners won’t emerge. We’ve shied away from listing some likely 2022 rookies as favorites here because of injuries (Padres IF C.J. Abrams) or a lack of consistency (Cardinals IF Nolan Gorman and SP Matthew Liberatore). Any of those players could show up in spring training and become what Jonathan India was for the 2021 Reds.

Bart seems to have the inside edge on succeeding Buster Posey as the Giants’ everyday catcher. He maintains his rookie status despite having 35 big league games under his belt. Posey’s retirement opens up the door of opportunity for him.

Greene is more of a question mark in terms of spending most of next season at the big league level, even though the Reds appear to be in veteran-shedding mode. After missing all of 2019 due to Tommy John surgery, Greene spent 2020 at Cincinnati’s alternate training site, so 2021 was his first game action since 2018. The stuff was still there — Greene will be a darling of anyone dazzled by Statcast readings — but his results tailed off after he ascended to Triple-A. Throwing his name into this mix is a testament to his raw stuff.

Davis is a fast riser in the Cubs’ system after adding more power to his arsenal. The rebuilding Cubs might have everyday at-bats available for a young player of his ilk, though it seems likely he’ll begin 2022 in Triple-A.

Sleeper: Sixto Sanchez, Marlins

Sanchez could have plenty of company in the Marlins’ 2022 rookie class, joining fellow hurlers Max Meyer and Edward Cabrera, and possibly slugging outfielder JJ Bleday. Sanchez is coming off surgery to repair a small tear in his shoulder, and while current reports are that he’ll be good to go in 2022, we have to see that happen before we can truly believe it — any kind of shoulder issue has to be handled delicately. Still, if Sanchez is a full go, we’ve already seen his stuff play in the majors, with an 80-grade fastball (per Baseball America) that earned him two postseason starts in 2020.

Other sleeper candidates include a pair of Cincinnati prospects — SS Jose Barrero and SP Nick Lodolo — as well as suddenly overlooked Braves CF Cristian Pache. Phillies SS Bryson Stott has gotten a lot of recent attention and the Phils do need a long-term shortstop solution.

My pick: Bart. He might not have the most upside of the NL rookie class, but he should be a steady and frequent contributor in a key role for a contending team.

AL Cy Young

My favorites: Lucas Giolito, White Sox; Jose Berrios, Blue Jays; Gerrit Cole, Yankees

This race looks like it’ll be wide open, with former winners Chris Sale, Shane Bieber and Justin Verlander all in various post-injury stages, and Cole having come back to the pack a little bit after his up-and-down second half last season.

Giolito struggled with some inconsistency in 2021, but he has a history of overcoming those issues with his cerebral, self-aware approach to the game. Also, anyone who is a fixture in the White Sox’s rotation is a contender, so in a subhead to this section, you might as well list Lance Lynn, Dylan Cease and maybe even Michael Kopech. There aren’t many managers who value length from starters like Tony La Russa, and while that might not turn the heads of voters like it once did, it might hold some sway in a tight race.

With Berrios, we also have to mention teammate Robbie Ray, the 2021 AL winner who is a free agent, so it’s hard to say he’s a favorite in either league. Meanwhile, Berrios is an underrated pitcher who combines durability and consistency as well as anyone, and his peripheral numbers have ticked up to the point where it feels like he’s poised for a career season.

As for Cole, he has plenty to prove after his 2021 drop-off, but he is still, after all, Gerrit Cole.

Sleeper: Shohei Ohtani, Angels

Corbin Burnes’ Cy Young win shows that you don’t need to lead the league in innings to win the honor in today’s game. Ohtani has the potential to put up a top-five season just for his pitching alone, and as good as he was on the mound in 2021, there were still some unpolished edges to his game. More than anything, it just feels like if Ohtani sets his sights on building a case for this award and boosting the oft-criticized Angels rotation, he, perhaps more than any player in the game, can get there by sheer will.

My pick: Berrios. A (relatively) new team, a contract extension — things just seem to be coming together for Berrios as he gets into the prime of his career.

NL Cy Young

My favorites: Walker Buehler, Dodgers; Zack Wheeler, Phillies; Jacob deGrom, Mets

The 2021 season was great, as all full baseball seasons are, but it wasn’t as great as it could have been because of major injuries to some of the game’s best players. None of those injuries was as devastating as were the maladies that limited to deGrom to 92 innings. Still, since the start of the 2018 season, here are deGrom’s numbers per 162 games: 12-8, 1.94 ERA and 289 strikeouts.

There is at least some sentiment that Wheeler got jobbed in the 2021 balloting, and if he can repeat his performance in 2022, maybe he gets a closer look next time around. The key question for him is whether there will be a price to pay from his leap in innings from 71 in 2020 to 213 1/3.

I remained convinced that Buehler is going to put it all together some year, post enormous numbers and run away with a Cy Young Award. His numbers were awfully good in 2021, so if he improves on those, look out.

Sleeper: Jack Flaherty, Cardinals

We’ve seen Flaherty enjoy a prolonged stretch when he pitched at an elite level before. Last season, he wasn’t quite at that level, and injuries had something to do with it. He’s at the point in his career where he could become the next career-long Cardinal, or position himself for a major payday in free agency. Next season could be the one in which Flaherty establishes himself over a full season as the ace the Cardinals need.

My pick: DeGrom. There are a lot of ifs for most of the pitchers mentioned in this piece, because that’s the nature of forecasting pitching. For deGrom, there is only one if: If he makes 30 or so starts, he is the front-runner.

AL MVP

My favorites: Shohei Ohtani, Angels; Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays; Mike Trout, Angels

For Ohtani, the question has to be whether some minor fatigue develops with the fascination of just how marvelously unique his 2021 season was. He did fall off a bit toward the end of the season at the plate, and if the Angels manage him a little more carefully going forward, that might be enough to open the door for someone else.

That someone else could certainly be Guerrero, whose 2021 numbers (1.002 OPS) were good enough to get him AL MVP honors in many seasons. The sustainability of those numbers, or at least most of them, is made more likely by the fact that they were undergirded by real improvements in approach and plate discipline, the kind of things that are usually sticky. As a reality check, you also think back to the heights of Bryce Harper’s age-22 season (1.109 OPS) and what came next, and you wonder if some regression is almost inevitable.

As for Trout, the only number of his that has declined is games played. Unfortunately, that’s a big one. After missing a total of 16 games from 2013 to 2016, he has missed at least 22 in each full season since. Yet he remains a player for whom a 1.000 OPS is the expectation, not the upside. Literally: His career OPS is 1.002. If he plays a full season of at least 140-145 games, he’ll be part of the MVP conversation.

Sleeper: Wander Franco, Rays

Franco entered the big leagues with the burden of having been baseball’s top consensus prospect for multiple seasons. With expectations so high, a disappointing debut seemed almost like an inevitability. Indeed, other than homering in his first game, he did get off to a slow start — for all of 15 games, during which he hit .197. After that, he hit .314/.372/.500. He also put up a BABIP of .311, which is kind of low for a player with his contact and line-drive ability. In the minors, he was at .334. So his already-impressive numbers could have been even better.

Franco doesn’t turn 21 until spring training, so maybe we’re jumping the gun. We’ve never had a position player win an MVP award in his age-21 season. Still, Franco is someone who leaped from top prospect status to putting up a consecutive-game on-base streak in the majors that had him listed alongside Mickey Mantle on a daily basis. Special players do special things.

My pick: Trout. This seems like less of an obvious pick than years past, because the mounting injury problems have really started to take over Trout’s narrative. How could they not after a season in which he went down with a calf strain in the middle of May, and then missed the rest of the season? Still, when he did play, he showed zero degradation of his skills. And his skills remain the best in the game.

NL MVP

My favorites: Juan Soto, Nationals; Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres; Mookie Betts, Dodgers

This is either a great list or a boring list. On one hand, the familiarity it conjures is a reflection of how many generational players there are in the senior circuit right now, and how many of them are either in their primes, or on the ascent. If you wanted to add Bryce Harper to that list, I wouldn’t argue with you. The only reason Ronald Acuna Jr. isn’t there is because we don’t know for sure when he’s coming back from his ACL tear, and we need to see if he has been in any way diminished by the injury.

Among the trio listed as favorites, Betts has the most to prove, though “prove” might not be an appropriate description. It’s simply that he is coming off a down season by his immense standards. He hit .264, matching his career low. The last time Betts hit that number, the following campaign he responded by hitting .346 with an OPS over 1.000 and posted an epic 10.7 bWAR.

Soto will be on the favorites list for the foreseeable future. It’s not just that he’s consistent. It’s that the level at which he produces that consistency is MVP-caliber. His mean expectation is just that high. Coming off his age-22 season, he has a career .981 OPS and has averaged 6.1 bWAR per 162 games. He showed us in the Home Run Derby what his raw power is. Now imagine Soto fully manifesting that raw power in games for a full season, going along with his best-in-the-game combination of strike zone judgment and plate discipline, and elite bat-to-ball skills. Excuse me while I clean up the drool from my keyboard.

And Tatis could hit 50 home runs and steal 40 bases as a shortstop. It’s an awfully exciting time in the National League.

Sleeper: Trea Turner. OK, Turner is a star player and not really the platonic ideal of a sleeper candidate, but I want to throw some attention his way. His power breakout in 2021 is a major development for a player who seems to have established himself as a .330-type hitter during this phase of his career and has some of baseball’s best speed skills. If he ends up moving back to shortstop full time to replace Corey Seager, he’ll have plenty of positional value as well. The competition in the NL is so fierce with elite talents that it is hard to imagine a real sleeper breaking through, so Turner is the best I can come up with.

My pick: Tatis. I see the Padres as having a big bounce-back year under Bob Melvin, not just because of the manager, but because of better injury luck. Tatis is going to produce, but he should put up his numbers in a more high-stakes context next year amid a three-team scrum with the Giants and Dodgers in the NL West. Soto is capable of putting up the kind of monster numbers to overcome that, but he will be handicapped to an extent by the fact that the Nationals aren’t likely to be very good.

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‘He looks happy’: Has Juan Soto finally found a home with the Yankees?

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'He looks happy': Has Juan Soto finally found a home with the Yankees?

WHEN JUAN SOTO began to initiate himself with the New York Yankees, his third team in less than two years, the takeaway from those who observed it was how seamless it felt — how comfortable he looked, how easily he found his voice, how quickly it seemed as if he had been there forever.

He’s getting better at this.

“It’s definitely easier than the first time,” Soto said with a laugh earlier this month, about two weeks after his first official workout as a Yankee. “The first time, it was really tough.”

It can be jarring to consider Soto — the accomplishments he has had, the legends he has been compared to, the trades he has been at the center of — and realize he is only 25 years old, younger than Baltimore’s Adley Rutschman, Toronto’s Bo Bichette and Atlanta’s Austin Riley. Before Soto, no player had ever made three All-Star teams and been traded twice before the age of 26.

The latest brought him to his sport’s most decorated franchise, for whom he’ll debut in an Opening Day matchup against the rival Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park on Thursday afternoon. The Yankees will pair Soto with fellow superstar Aaron Judge in hopes of revitalizing a lineup that often looked listless amid an 82-win, playoff-less season last year. But only the 2024 season is promised. After it ends, Soto will venture into the free agent market, potentially on the move once more.

There was a time, not too long ago, when Soto thought his career would be a steady and continuous ascension, the type reserved for only a select few of the game’s greatest. Debuting at 19, winning the World Series after his age-20 season, claiming a batting title at 21 and drawing comparisons to Ted Williams by 22 will do that. He has since had to grapple with interruption, calamity, imperfection. He believes he has been hardened by it.

“The Nationals showed me the business side of the game,” Soto said, “and I’m just glad they showed me that.”

Soto spent an entire morning crying after being traded away from the Washington Nationals, the team that signed him, shaped him, watched him become a star and helped make him a champion. In the aftermath of his trade from the San Diego Padres 16 months later, in December 2023, he was unemotional, fully adept at navigating the cold realities of professional sports.

“I’ve been growing a lot,” Soto said. “On the business side, I’ve been learning a lot of things — about different organizations, different cultures. I think I’ve been learning from that. I’m happy I’m learning that way, so that whenever I get to one spot I know how to react whenever I get around a clubhouse that is going to be different.”

Barring an unexpected extension with the Yankees, Soto, a Scott Boras client, will become baseball’s most coveted free agent in a little more than seven months. Given the heavy deferrals in Shohei Ohtani‘s contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers — he signed for $700 million, but the present-day value, based on how it impacts the competitive balance tax payroll, sits at $460 million — Soto still has a chance to sign the richest contract in baseball history.

But what he wants more than anything is stability.

“That’s the best thing for me,” Soto said. “Stay in one place and try to, whenever I do this deal, just finish in that one spot.”


THE DETAILS OF professional sports contracts are often public, forcing athletes to live with the pressure of how much money they make. Few, though, have to live with the pressure of how much money they turn down. Soto lived that reality in the summer of 2022, during a 17-day window that began with the revelation that he declined a 15-year, $440 million extension from the Nationals on July 16 and ended with his trade to the Padres on Aug. 2.

The noise didn’t just come from fans and media, but from friends and family, many of them miffed by how anyone, let alone a person with such humble beginnings, could turn down generational wealth.

“It was days,” Soto said, “where I’d wake up and I’d get so many text messages, calls, phone calls, everything, that it just made you not even want to go to the field.”

Roughly 17 months later, the anger over all of it becoming public still feels fresh.

“I was a guy who was loyal to the team,” Soto said. “I always tried to say, ‘Anything we do business-wise, it was just between the team and myself.’ And it was really shocking for me, it was really tough for me. It was really frustrating at the same time, because I really trusted that team. I gave all my trust to be able to negotiate and do things like that, and when you see stuff like that, you just feel so bad. It was really uncomfortable.”

The Nationals’ extension offer, which didn’t come with any deferrals, would stand as baseball’s second-largest contract even today. But its average annual value, $29.3 million, would rank Soto behind 18 other players this season. Given the combined $54 million he will make in his last two arbitration years, Soto projects to do better than that in free agency, especially with another MVP-caliber year in 2024. Any free agent deal exceeding $386 million would net him more money in the aggregate.

Just as big a deterrent as the average annual value for Soto, though, was that the Nationals were for sale at the time.

“You’re being offered a contract from a faceless owner,” Boras said in a phone conversation. “And Juan Soto didn’t want to place his career in that position, because he really wanted to know who he was going to be working with for years to come.”

“People can judge you, but at the end of the day, it’s you who has to feel comfortable,” said retired outfielder Nelson Cruz, a confidant of Soto’s with the Nationals in 2022 who briefly joined him with the Padres in 2023. “That made me really proud of him, to see him figure out, ‘It’s me who has to deal with it.’ It was great to see him grow up as a player, grow up on the business side, because he understood his value and what he’s worth. He’s very educated with that. I hope he gets what he wants.”

Once he arrived in San Diego, Soto said, “all the noise just stopped.” But the 2022 season still saw him finish with only a .242 batting average and a .452 slugging percentage, by far the lowest marks of his career. The Padres won anyway, making it all the way to the National League Championship Series. The ensuing offseason saw them sign Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year, $280 million contract. Later, near the end of February, Manny Machado was given an 11-year, $350 million extension.

It seemed like the Padres — also tied long-term to Fernando Tatis Jr., Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish — didn’t have any more millions to give. But Soto said he maintained hope of staying, too. His conversations with owner Peter Seidler made him believe it was possible.

“He really wanted me to be part of the team,” Soto said.

Boras saved his last exchange with Seidler, a short text message from Nov. 2. In it, Seidler, who late in the season had undergone an undisclosed medical procedure, wrote that he was “improving steadily” and that though doctors had told him to stay off his phone, “I’m going to keep in touch with you anyway.” Twelve days later, Seidler died. Sources familiar with the team’s thinking believe the Padres ultimately would have had no choice but to trade Soto; it was their best — and perhaps only — route to adding starting-pitching depth and getting their payroll below $200 million, two clear goals at the start of the offseason. But many wonder if Seidler would have found a way to keep Soto regardless.

“I only know everything that Peter said to me,” Boras said. “Peter Seidler always said to me that Juan Soto will be on his team. He said it 50 times to me — ‘Juan Soto will be on my team.'”


SOTO HAS SAID all the right things about becoming a Yankee. But he hasn’t been as effusive as one might expect for what feels like such a natural fit — a magnetic, star-level player for a premier franchise. Some have rationalized it as another bargaining move, not unlike Soto’s decision to turn down the Nationals’ final offer; a way to maintain leverage in the lead-up to a free agency that will include the crosstown New York Mets, among others, as aggressive suitors.

It might be something else, though: a defense mechanism. Soto doesn’t want to get hurt again, and so he won’t allow himself to.

“That’s how things go,” Soto said. “You definitely love where you’re at, you’re definitely happy, excited with where you’re going to be and how the team’s going to be — but they show you you cannot fall in love, like I did with the Nationals. I was more than excited to be there, and they just cracked everything open and let me go.”

Boras has had precisely 52 meetings with Soto (“I keep track of them,” he said) to go over “the economics of the game and his value in it.” Soto is not just one of the best hitters of this era; at a time when players constantly sacrifice strikeouts to keep up with the high velocities and elevated spin rates of the modern game, his combination of patience and power is unmatched. Soto drew a major-league-leading 412 walks from 2021 to 2023, 136 more than the second-place Kyle Schwarber, but also accumulated 91 home runs, tied for 15th. His adjusted OPS of 157 is the fifth highest all-time through a player’s age-24 season, trailing only Ty Cobb, Mike Trout, Mickey Mantle and Jimmie Foxx, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

That he’ll be a free agent at 26 years old only adds to the possibility that his next contract will reach the $500 million threshold that had been so elusive until Ohtani. Soto, though, cares about the length of his new deal at least as much as he cares about the value attached to it. It’ll be the first contract he signs, but he also wants it to be his last.

“At the end of the day, everybody wants to be where they’re going to finish their career,” Soto said. “This free agency was really tough for a lot of players, but I think if you ask any guy in the clubhouse, anywhere, they will be happy to be in a long-term deal and try to finish their career where they can be. That’s the best thing for me — to stay in one place and try to, whenever I do this deal, just finish in that one spot.”

Soto brought up his four most prominent ex-teammates — Machado, Bogaerts, Trea Turner and Bryce Harper. Machado, Bogaerts and Turner each signed 11-year deals that carry them through their age-40 season; Harper signed a 13-year contract after hitting free agency at a similar age as Soto will. All have full no-trade clauses.

“Long contracts,” Soto said, “because they know they’re going to finish their career right there. Anything can happen in the future. Maybe they get traded. But that’s going to be on them if they want to get traded, instead of going to free agency and trying the market again. They just know they’re going to be there for a long time.”


YANKEES GENERAL MANAGER Brian Cashman lowered the expectations early. On the first day of spring training, when he met with the New York media, he essentially stated that, barring something unforeseen, Soto will play out the 2024 season in the Bronx and then become a free agent. It was a reaction to a conversation Boras had with managing general partner Hal Steinbrenner shortly after the trade, during which Boras relayed Soto’s desire to “learn what it’s like to be a Yankee” before making a long-term commitment.

It was also an acknowledgment of the obvious.

“Scott Boras is his agent,” Cashman said plainly. “Scott takes his guys to free agency. That’s typically what he does. It’s just reading the landscape and recognizing that that is the most realistic avenue. It doesn’t mean that’s what’s going to happen. I don’t rule it out. But I just feel like under-promise, overperform is probably, in the New York market, the best thing you can do.”

The Yankees are expected to be aggressive in their efforts to bring Soto back this offseason, even if it means giving him a contract that tops the one signed by their captain, Judge, who landed a nine-year, $360 million deal as a 30-year-old in December 2022.

The results of 2024 could have a lot of sway.

The Yankees are coming off one of their most disappointing seasons in recent memory and will be without their ace, Gerrit Cole, until at least May or June while he recovers from what has been diagnosed as nerve inflammation and edema in his right elbow. Soto has never needed to be more of a difference-maker, and the early signs were promising. His first seven Grapefruit League games saw him hit four home runs, leaving his new team in awe.

“I feel like he’s going to kill the ball every time he swings,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said at the time.

“I knew I would enjoy watching him,” Cole said, “but I love watching him.”

There are no questions surrounding Soto’s ability to hit, but there are plenty surrounding his ability to defend, so much so that there are already talks — among fans, but also among scouts and executives — about him eventually transitioning to designated hitter, perhaps sooner than later. It’s the one aspect of his game that could prevent the massive contract he once seemed pre-ordained for, and he knows it.

“I want to show people that I can play outfield, I can play defense,” Soto said. “I saw those comments and everything, that they say I’m not going to be [much] longer in the outfield. But I feel like I can.”

By Statcast’s Run Value metric, Soto was a minus-30 from 2018 to 2023, though the number was heavily skewed by an abysmal showing in 2022. He was worth four outs above average in 2021, but minus-16 in 2022 and minus-9 in 2023. In hopes of getting him closer to the metrics of three years ago, Yankees outfield coach Luis Rojas spent a large portion of spring training working with Soto on pre-pitch techniques in hopes of improving his first step, usually by taking live reads during batting practice. His desire to improve has been obvious.

“I noticed that from the first day we talked,” Rojas said. “You can sense it right away, when a player takes over a conversation and basically owns it. You see the sense of responsibility that he has for his career, in all areas.”

Cruz sees Soto as the prototypical Yankee, for reasons that extend far beyond a short right-field porch. Cruz, 43, spent 19 years in the big leagues and struggled to find someone more focused, more disciplined and more mature than Soto. Those traits, while coupled with a strong demeanor and a hard exterior, have at times distanced Soto from teammates, as some around the Padres can attest to. But Cruz believes they’ll be a major benefit under New York’s magnifying glass.

“The fans are going to love him,” said Cruz, now an adviser with the Dodgers. “He’s the type of player the Yankees are looking for.”

Soto made fast friends with fellow outfielder Alex Verdugo, his new throwing partner and locker mate at the Yankees’ spring training complex in Tampa, Florida. One locker over was Trent Grisham, the veteran center fielder who came over with Soto in the most recent trade. Grisham was on the same Padres team where Soto admittedly struggled to adapt and was surprised to see Soto now so comfortable, so at ease, at such an early stage with the Yankees. He told him as much before the end of the first week.

“He looks happy,” Grisham said a few days later. “He looks excited.”

He’s done this before.

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NHL playoff watch: Potential playoff matchups aplenty on Thursday night

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NHL playoff watch: Potential playoff matchups aplenty on Thursday night

It’s a typically busy Thursday night in the NHL, with 14 games on the schedule. And there are some absolute gems among those 14 contests, including several that could be run back during the 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs.

The early window includes three games that could take place in either the first round of the Eastern Conference bracket or further down the road:

A little later, we’ll see a rematch of a first-round matchup from last season (that could potentially be one this season as well), as the Vegas Golden Knights take on the Winnipeg Jets (8 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+). Meanwhile, it’s looking increasingly likely that the Edmonton Oilers and Los Angeles Kings will square off in the first round for a third straight postseason, and those two will take the ice against one another Thursday (9 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+).

Two of the best teams in the Western Conference, the division-leading Dallas Stars and Vancouver Canucks, will square off Thursday (10 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+), and potentially again in the Western Conference finals.

The eyes of the hockey-loving world will be monitoring Thursday’s main event: A potential Stanley Cup Final matchup between two juggernauts, as the New York Rangers visit the Colorado Avalanche (9 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+).

It’ll be a busy night, with mathematical implications in the standings and psychological implications for possible matchups later this spring.

As we traverse the final stretch of the regular season, it’s time to check in on all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2024 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Thursday’s schedule
Wednesday’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Boston Bruins vs. WC1 Tampa Bay Lightning
A2 Florida Panthers vs. A3 Toronto Maple Leafs
M1 New York Rangers vs. WC2 Washington Capitals
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 Philadelphia Flyers

Western Conference

C1 Dallas Stars vs. WC2 Vegas Golden Knights
C2 Colorado Avalanche vs. C3 Winnipeg Jets
P1 Vancouver Canucks vs. WC1 Nashville Predators
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings


Thursday’s games

Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available via NHL Power Play, which is included in an ESPN+ subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).

Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs, 7 p.m.
Philadelphia Flyers at Montreal Canadiens, 7 p.m.
Chicago Blackhawks at Ottawa Senators, 7 p.m.
New York Islanders at Florida Panthers, 7 p.m.
Columbus Blue Jackets at Pittsburgh Penguins, 7 p.m.
Detroit Red Wings at Carolina Hurricanes, 7:30 p.m.
Calgary Flames at St. Louis Blues, 8 p.m.
San Jose Sharks at Minnesota Wild, 8 p.m.
Vegas Golden Knights at Winnipeg Jets, 8 p.m.
New York Rangers at Colorado Avalanche, 9 p.m.
Los Angeles Kings at Edmonton Oilers, 9 p.m.
Dallas Stars at Vancouver Canucks, 10 p.m.
Nashville Predators at Arizona Coyotes, 10 p.m.
Anaheim Ducks at Seattle Kraken, 10 p.m.


Wednesday’s scoreboard

Ottawa Senators 6, Buffalo Sabres 2
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Boston Bruins 1


Expanded standings

Atlantic Division

Points: 99
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 8
Points pace: 110
Next game: @ WSH (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 97
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 10
Points pace: 111
Next game: vs. NYI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 89
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 11
Points pace: 103
Next game: vs. WSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 87
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 10
Points pace: 99
Next game: vs. NYI (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 98.7%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 90
Next game: @ CAR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 24.5%
Tragic number: 18

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 82
Next game: vs. NJ (Friday)
Playoff chances: 1.4%
Tragic number: 10

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 76
Next game: vs. CHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 7

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 76
Next game: vs. PHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 7


Metropolitan Division

Points: 100
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 10
Points pace: 114
Next game: @ COL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 97
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 9
Points pace: 109
Next game: vs. DET (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 82
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 9
Points pace: 92
Next game: @ MTL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 86.6%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 11
Points pace: 94
Next game: @ TOR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 65.1%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 76
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 85
Next game: @ BUF (Friday)
Playoff chances: 11.7%
Tragic number: 13

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 87
Next game: @ FLA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 10.8%
Tragic number: 16

Points: 72
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 83
Next game: vs. CBJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 1.2%
Tragic number: 13

Points: 58
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 66
Next game: @ PIT (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E


Central Division

Points: 99
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 9
Points pace: 111
Next game: @ VAN (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 97
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 10
Points pace: 111
Next game: vs. NYR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 94
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 10
Points pace: 107
Next game: vs. VGK (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 10
Points pace: 103
Next game: @ ARI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.8%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 91
Next game: vs. CGY (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 4.3%
Tragic number: 14

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 89
Next game: vs. SJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 2%
Tragic number: 13

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 74
Next game: vs. NSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 47
Regulation wins: 15
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 54
Next game: @ OTT (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E


Pacific Division

Points: 98
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 10
Points pace: 112
Next game: vs. DAL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 12
Points pace: 105
Next game: vs. LA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 87
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 11
Points pace: 101
Next game: @ EDM (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.3%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 86
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 10
Points pace: 98
Next game: @ WPG (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 94.5%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 82
Next game: @ STL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 7

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 82
Next game: vs. ANA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 7

Points: 52
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 59
Next game: @ SEA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 40
Regulation wins: 12
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 46
Next game: @ MIN (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

p — clinched Presidents’ Trophy
y — clinched division
x — clinched playoff berth
e — eliminated from playoff contention


Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on the draft board for this summer is Macklin Celebrini, a freshman at Boston University.

Points: 40
Regulation wins: 12

Points: 47
Regulation wins: 15

Points: 52
Regulation wins: 18

Points: 58
Regulation wins: 18

Points: 64
Regulation wins: 21

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 17

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 23

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 28

Points: 72
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 28

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 22

Points: 76
Regulation wins: 31

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 27

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 25

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 28

* The Penguins’ first-round pick was traded to the Sharks as part of the Erik Karlsson trade. However, it is top-10 protected.

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Wizards, Caps to stay in D.C. with arena upgrade

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Wizards, Caps to stay in D.C. with arena upgrade

WASHINGTON — The NBA’s Washington Wizards and NHL’s Washington Capitals are staying in the District of Columbia for the long term after ownership and the city reached an agreement on a $515 million arena project.

Owner Ted Leonsis and Mayor Muriel Bowser signed a letter of intent on Wednesday for the deal, which keeps the teams in the district through 2050. They announced the development at a joint news conference at Capital One Arena minutes later.

“It’s a great day, and I’m really relieved,” Leonsis said. “This was not only the right thing for the community, the right thing for the city, the right thing for us, it’s a really smart business deal.”

The project is set to include 200,000 square feet of expansion of the arena complex into the nearby Gallery Place space, the creation of an entertainment district in the surrounding Chinatown neighborhood and safety and transportation upgrades.

“We are the current home and the future home of the Washington Capitals and Washington Wizards,” said Bowser, who donned a Wizards jersey. “As Ted likes to say, we’re going to be together for a long time.”

In a statement, District of Columbia Attorney General Brian Schwalb said residents “could not have been louder or clearer in expressing their desire for the teams to stay.”

“This outcome will have significant positive impacts on economic development, public safety, and overall District energy and spirit generated by the millions of people who attend games, shows, and concerts at Capital One Arena,” Schwalb said.

The Council of the District of Columbia will take up the deal next week and is expected to pass it, chairman Phil Mendelson said at the news conference.

The agreement between Monumental Sports & Entertainment and the city came as Alexandria officials said talks for a new arena that would have moved the teams to Virginia had ended. Leonsis acknowledged Virginia had land as an advantage that the district didn’t.

“You’re in this arms race to build bigger and better and higher quality, and we’ve been running out of space,” Leonsis said, referencing the new entertainment community the agreement envisions that is not nearly as big as the 12 acres that were dedicated to the arena in Virginia. “But it’s enough.”

The ultrawealthy entrepreneur said he generally wanted to avoid discussing Virginia but did throw a few jabs at the state, where political divisions between Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin and Democrats who control the Virginia General Assembly contributed to the plan’s demise.

“You can’t do it alone, and I felt that we were really in a good partnership,” Leonsis said, “as opposed to where I thought I would have a great partnership.”

The development is a blow to Youngkin, who announced months ago with fanfare the outlines of a proposal negotiated with the teams’ parent company to bring them across the Potomac River.

In a statement on Wednesday, the governor expressed disappointment and frustration, laying blame with Democrats.

“This should have been our deal and our opportunity, all the General Assembly had to do was say: ‘thank you, Monumental, for wanting to come to Virginia and create $12 billion of economic investment, let’s work it out.’ But no, personal and political agendas drove away” the deal, he said.

Democrats responded by saying Youngkin had mismanaged the proposal from the start. House Speaker Don Scott said he was blown away by Youngkin’s statement, which Scott said seemed like it had been written by a teenager, and bristled at the suggestion that the Legislature should have given the deal an easy sign-off.

“He has lost his sense of good judgment right now,” said Scott, who had not fully endorsed the deal but expressed openness to it.

He added that from the tone of the statement, he said Youngkin might retaliate by vetoing the budget lawmakers sent him earlier this month.

Alexandria, which first announced the news, said in a statement posted to its website that it also was disappointed.

“We negotiated a framework for this opportunity in good faith and participated in the process in Richmond in a way that preserved our integrity,” the statement said. “We trusted this process and are disappointed in what occurred between the Governor and General Assembly.”

Matt Kelly, the CEO of publicly traded real estate company JBG SMITH, a partner to the Alexandria deal as the proposed developer, issued a blistering statement that laid blame on “partisan politics” and raised the prospect that “potential pay-to-play” influences had a hand in the project’s downfall.

“Beyond the arena, state and local governments will lose needed tax revenue, economic development credibility, and what could have been Virginia’s last best chance to land a professional sports franchise for at least a generation,” Kelly said.

The Virginia plan called for the creation of a $2 billion development district in the Potomac Yard section of Alexandria, with not only a new arena but also a practice facility and corporate headquarters for Monumental in addition to a separate performing arts venue.

The general assembly was asked to set up an authority that would issue bonds to finance most of the project, backed partly by the city and state governments and repaid through a mix of projected tax revenues recaptured from the development.

Youngkin and other supporters said the development would generate tens of thousands of jobs, along with new tax revenues beyond what would have been needed to cover the financing.

The plan faced opposition from labor unions, Alexandria residents concerned about traffic and District of Columbia officials who feared the loss of the teams would devastate downtown Washington.

Youngkin and other backers also failed to win over powerful Democratic Sen. L. Louise Lucas of Portsmouth, who chairs the Senate’s budget-writing committee. She used that position to block the legislation, citing a range of concerns but foremost the financing structure of the deal: The use of moral obligation bonds put taxpayers and the state’s finances at risk, Lucas said.

Lucas celebrated the proposal’s demise on Wednesday. On social media, she posted a cartoon of herself swatting away a basketball with the word “REJECTED” superimposed. She wrote, “As Monumental announces today they are staying in Washington DC we are celebrating in Virginia that we avoided the Monumental Disaster!”

Leonsis had shifted his tone on social media in recent days, pointing to large crowds in Capital One Arena this month for everything from the Capitals and Wizards to ACC tournament basketball and a Zach Bryan concert. He posted Wednesday that Monumental expected over 400,000 fans to pass through turnstiles in March.

He and Bowser began talks about keeping the teams in the district not long after Virginia disclosed its offer, including through regular meetings in a posh hotel lobby, Leonsis said.

“Until 10 minutes ago, I had never signed a piece of paper,” Leonsis said.

Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.

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