Clemson and USC survived, but not everyone made it out of Week 4 unscathed
There are Saturdays when the true playoff contenders emerge with such ferocity and dominance they cannot be ignored.
There are Saturdays when the whole system feels rigged, and upsets knock one team after another from the ranks of the elite.
And then there are Saturdays like Week 4, where the goal is simply survival.
In Winston-Salem, upstart Wake Forest decimated Clemson‘s battered secondary to such a degree that, after the game, Dabo Swinney suggested he was one drive away from playing cornerback himself.
On the Palouse, Washington State delivered body blows to Oregon in a quest to upend the Pac-12’s power structure.
In the Big House, Maryland refused to go away, frustrating Michigan again and again.
Out west, Lincoln Riley’s offense finally met its match in Oregon State, which tormented QB Caleb Williams until the Trojans’ final drive.
In each case, however, the favorite survived.
It was the same story up and down the top 25. Georgia struggled to put away Kent State, allowing more than twice as many points Saturday as the Bulldogs had all season. Baylor had two takeaways, held Iowa State to just 66 yards on the ground, and still had to hold its breath on a final onside kick try. Ole Miss barely scraped by Tulsa. Kentucky went to halftime tied with Northern Illinois. Tennessee dominated Florida, then nearly let the Gators come back in a frenetic final few minutes, saved, in part, by Billy Napier’s inexplicable decision to go for two with 4:49 to play, trailing by 11.
Saturday was like one long thriller, the main character narrowly escaping one harrowing scenario after another, emerging battered, bloodied and bruised … but alive.
The same could not be said for everyone.
Texas saw a 14-point second-half lead disappear as Texas Tech roared back to take a 34-31 lead with 21 seconds remaining. Still, the Longhorns fought back, sending the game to overtime, only to witness Bijan Robinson fumble on the first play of extra time. It was the Longhorns’ seventh loss by a touchdown or less in their past 11 games.
Arkansas went to Dallas and appeared poised to trounce Texas A&M, but a KJ Jefferson fumble as he leaped for the end zone turned into a 97-yard touchdown for the Aggies, and the entire script was flipped. Jimbo Fisher dove deep into his Cheesecake Factory menu — wait, no, we’re being told those are his play sheets — and finally found a spark for the Aggies’ offense, knocking off the Razorbacks 23-21. It was a shocking outcome, given that Jerry Jones usually has to wait until the NFL playoffs to witness his team incomprehensibly fall apart.
Jimbo apparently doing expense reports on the sideline between plays. pic.twitter.com/mNDwVPfxFe
— ??️♈️? (@ADavidHaleJoint) September 25, 2022
Oklahoma became the latest victim of the curse of Scott Frost. Northwestern beat Nebraska in Week 0, and it hasn’t won since. Georgia Southern stunned the Cornhuskers in Week 2, then lost the following week to UAB. Oklahoma delivered a rout of Nebraska last week, then could not stop former Huskers QB Adrian Martinez on Saturday, as Kansas State knocked the Sooners from the ranks of the unbeaten, 41-34. Nebraska is like the VHS tape in “The Ring.” All who come into contact with it are doomed to perish within seven days.
It might be easy to find fault with Clemson, which needed overtime to vanquish Sam Hartman and Wake’s downfield passing attack, but the Tigers still won and remain in the playoff hunt. Perhaps that’s all the narrative that matters. Plus, Swinney got to scold reporters for criticizing his QB.
Did Georgia sleepwalk through what it reasonably expected to be an easy win? Probably. But it’s OK for 21 guys to sleepwalk, so long as Brock Bowers is occasionally running.
Did J.J. McCarthy look mortal against Maryland? Perhaps. But after playing three of the worst teams in the country to open the season, Michigan was bound to find tougher sledding in Big Ten play.
Riley could’ve added transfers from 2019 LSU, 2013 Florida State and several members of the 2001 St. Louis Rams, and it might not have been enough to answer the terrific defensive performance from Oregon State. But Williams, who completed fewer than half his passes, completed the necessary throws.
See, winning is hard, and for a few potential contenders the job proved too big Saturday.
For the rest, they’ll survive a bit longer. But as with all horror films, there will be sequels, and what ultimately determines who’s ready for a real playoff push and who’ll simply get a cameo in the next movie might come down to what lessons they learned from a brutal Week 4.
Kansas is actually good
It is written in the Book of Revelations (or maybe it’s in “Bill and Ted’s Bogus Journey”) that in the end times all mountains and valleys will be leveled to the plains and, we assume, from those Great Plains a Jayhawk will rise from the ashes.
Well, the apocalypse is upon us. Thanks a lot, Lance Leipold.
Yes, Kansas is 4-0. And it’s not just a schedule-aided, paper-thin 4-0. The Jayhawks upended undefeated Duke on Saturday, throwing for 324 yards, rushing for 204 and looking like one of the most dynamic offenses in the country. This comes on the heels of an overtime win against West Virginia and a surprising upset of Houston.
Kansas, dare we say, is for real.
0:47
Daniel Hishaw Jr. breaks tackles left and right as he goes 73 yards for the Kansas touchdown.
To understand just how wild that sounds, remember that the last time Kansas won four games in an entire season, “Avatar” was in theaters. (OK, we’re being told “Avatar” is somehow in theaters again now. Is this Kansas season all just CGI from James Cameron?)
The Jayhawks went to the Orange Bowl in 2007, won eight games in 2008, then stumbled to a 5-7 finish in 2009. What followed was the most prolific comedic run since Bob Hope. Now what will we laugh at? Will it even still be funny the next time Kansas beats Texas?
Kansas spent a decade trying past-their-prime quick fixes such as Charlie Weis and Les Miles and up-and-coming coaches such as Turner Gill and David Beatty. We’re fairly certain at one point the Jayhawks resorted to a shaman and a wax statue of Bear Bryant. None of it helped. Then Leipold arrived and it was as if the program awakened from a long sleep.
Think of the litany of players who’ve come through Lawrence in the past 15 years. Seriously, think of them because, frankly, we can’t remember any. For a generation of college football fans in Kansas, the closest thing they had to a celebrity was Baby Mangino, and he’s now a retired sanitation worker living outside Sarasota, Florida, and collecting social security (again, we assume).
But now, there are stars. Jalon Daniels threw for 324 yards Saturday, ran for 83 more and accounted for five touchdowns. Jayhawks boosters might as well start chipping in for a statue of the guy now. Four different Kansas receivers caught a touchdown against Duke. In 2020, four different Kansas receivers caught a touchdown all season! Kansas has a cornerback named Cobee Bryant. Sure, it’s spelled differently from the better-known Kobe, but “C” is a more versatile letter than “K” and the extra “E” is for “eventually we’re gonna be ranked.”
And no, it probably doesn’t signify the end is near. Had Kent State pulled the upset over Georgia or Central Michigan stayed with Penn State or Wake Forest finished off a win over Clemson, then maybe it’d be time to head for the underground bunker.
But these are strange times. The Jayhawks aren’t just relevant, they’re actually good.
Perhaps there’s a lesson in here for all of us — something about persevering through adversity and knowing that someday hard work will be rewarded. Or, perhaps, it’s that you should never give Charlie Weis a long-term contract. Both options are good advice.
The remaining schedule will be tougher with Iowa State, undefeated TCU and then three straight ranked foes. Perhaps this is the Jayhawks high-water mark for 2022. If so, that’s OK. Because we’ve seen a new horizon for a team that spent the past 15 years steadily walking into a brick wall like a video game character after your cat sits on the controller. But now, Kansas is something more — a program with a pulse, a team moving in the right direction, a fan base that isn’t simply counting down the days until basketball season.
We’re 4-0, too
Kansas may have finally earned some respect with its win Saturday to move to 4-0, but the Jayhawks aren’t the only remaining undefeated teams still hoping to attract a few poll voters.
P.J. Fleck likes to tell his team to “row the boat,” but at this point, the Minnesota Golden Gophers are sailing a yacht confiscated from a Russian oligarch. The Gophers dominated Michigan State on Saturday, and Tanner Morgan & Co. continue to impress. But the really interesting thing about Minnesota is the defense. The Gophers have held 16 straight opponents to fewer than 30 points — the longest active streak in the country.
Florida State demolished Boston College 44-14 on Saturday to get to 4-0. Jordan Travis returned to action and threw for a career-best 321 yards. In Travis’ past 13 starts, Florida State is 10-3.
UCLA narrowly escaped against some lesser opposition earlier this season, but Saturday, Chip Kelly’s crew delivered a dominant win over woeful Colorado 45-17. Dorian Thompson-Robinson threw for 234 yards and two touchdowns, which is impressive for a guy who has to be in his mid-50s by this point.
Syracuse survived Virginia on Friday to move to 4-0, and the Orange appear on a path to emerge as a 12-seed to face Kansas in the Elite Eight.
After Tulane fell to Southern Miss on Saturday, Coastal Carolina is the last remaining team outside the Power 5 with a 4-0 record. Of course, with QB Grayson McCall leaving this week’s win over Georgia State with an injury, the Chanticleers’ hopes could be dashed.
Perhaps it’s still too early to fully endorse any of them, but it seems well past time for each to get some attention from voters and a little love in the top-25 poll.
Punt-a-palooza on the Plains
Saturday might’ve been the day it all ended for Bryan Harsin at Auburn, with Missouri — the SEC’s version of the kid in “Old Yeller” — putting him out of his misery.
The college football gods wouldn’t let him off so easily.
Instead Harsin — and the rest of us — were forced to endure as unfortunate a pillow fight as the season is likely to offer (though Iowa certainly will try to match it).
A quick review of the drive chart from the second half, with the score tied at 14: punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, turnover on downs, missed field goal.
(To answer your question, yes, Kevin Warren has extended an offer for both teams to join the Big Ten.)
That final drive was the most insulting. Auburn had mustered nothing on offense and was down to its fourth-string quarterback. Missouri drove to the 3-yard line to set up a first-and-goal with 45 seconds left. Then, the Tigers — the, um, Missouri ones — took a knee twice to set up a game-winning field goal on third down.
And, of course, the kicker missed.
1:19
Missouri RB Nathaniel Peat fumbles at the goal line in overtime for a touchback, giving Auburn the win.
Auburn won it in overtime 17-14 after kicking a field goal following a drive in which it ran three plays and lost 2 yards. But to be fair, Mizzou really lost the game after fumbling the ball in the end zone when it had its chance to win in OT.
So it was with great pain that Harsin had to cancel his tee time next Saturday, so he can coach this team again. Hasn’t the man suffered enough?
Stroud leads Buckeyes in rout
While a number of the country’s top teams stumbled through the Saturday action, Ohio State looked every bit the part of a potential national champion, annihilating Wisconsin 52-21.
C.J. Stroud threw five touchdown passes. The Buckeyes had two 100-yard backs. The defense held Wisconsin to just 296 yards and 11 first downs.
The 52 points was the most scored against a Wisconsin defense since 2014, when the eventual national champion Buckeyes beat the Badgers 59-0 in the Big Ten title game.
And all of Saturday’s dominance came in a game in which Jaxon Smith-Njigba shut things down early, and the Buckeyes played without a couple of starting defensive backs.
If the sluggish start against Notre Dame in Week 1 offered any opening for doubt, Ohio State has clearly delivered an emphatic rebuke. The remaining schedule appears to offer few serious challenges — a road trip to Penn State on Oct. 29 and the season finale against Michigan excepted — and Stroud’s Heisman push is in full stride.
The biggest threat for Ohio State for the next month might simply be boredom. Or Iowa. They’re kind of the same thing.
JMU ends the mountain magic
It had been a magical start to the season for Appalachian State. In the second half Saturday, however, the Mountaineers’ only trick was making their New Year’s Six hopes disappear.
After jumping out to a 28-3 lead, App State’s second half included four punts, two turnovers on downs and a backbreaking interception that set up a go-ahead touchdown for JMU. Not since the Federalist papers has James Madison delivered such an emphatic defeat to the interests of America’s majority.
So perhaps America’s Cinderella story wasn’t meant to be App State after all. How about the Dukes?
JMU is 3-0 in its first season as an FBS team, and quarterback Todd Centeio has thrown 11 touchdowns without an interception. JMU now has as many wins as an FBS program in three games as UMass has over the past four seasons.
The most college football thing to happen Saturday
Middle Tennessee delivered a dagger to Miami to open the fourth quarter, when quarterback Chase Cunningham connected with DJ England-Chisolm, who corralled the pass behind the defense and sprinted into the end zone for a 98-yard touchdown.
Ah, but Miami had an answer. On the ensuing kickoff, Key’Shawn Smith burst up the middle and ran 91 yards to pay dirt, too.
So, to recap: It took 22 seconds and one offensive play for the two teams to rack up 189 all-purpose yards and 14 points.
1:14
After a 98-yard Middle Tennessee State touchdown, Miami answers right back with a 91-yard touchdown of its own.
It might’ve been an exciting exchange for the upwards of nine fans in attendance to enjoy, but unfortunately, Miami offered little else to cheer for. MTSU stunned the Hurricanes with a 45-31 win. But take heart, Canes fans. Nick Saban lost to Louisiana-Monroe in his first season at Alabama, so Mario Cristobal is still right on track to win a half-dozen national titles in the coming years.
The most college football thing to happen this week (FCS edition)
Stephen F. Austin had a chance to hang 100 on Warner (which Google tells us is a private Christian school in Florida with an enrollment of 815 students). Rather than hit the century mark, however, the Lumberjacks took a knee on a 2-point try.
Somehow, this feels even more insulting.
Stephen F. Austin just scored a TD to take a 98-0 lead on Warner.
The offensive was on the field for a 2pt conversion
BUT THEY TOOK A KNEE! pic.twitter.com/EYqfFhvnpC
— Chris Hassel (@Hassel_Chris) September 25, 2022
Heisman Five
We have officially eliminated Tyler Van Dyke from Heisman consideration. Anthony Richardson narrowly stays in the mix by throwing his first touchdown of the season.
1. Alabama QB Bryce Young
Saturday marked the best day of the season for Alabama’s passing game, with 11 players hauling in a grab and Young throwing for 385 yards and four TDs. More importantly, the game offered a check-in on Clark Lea’s preseason prediction that Vanderbilt would eventually become the best team in the country. Perhaps no opponent offers a better measuring stick than Alabama, but the Tide rolled 55-3. It should be noted that the last time these two teams played was 2017, and Alabama won 59-0. So, Vandy is heading in the right direction, and if this trend continues, Lea could be proven correct by 2043.
1:43
Bryce Young throws for 385 yards and four touchdowns as the Crimson Tide roll past the Commodores with a 55-3 victory.
2. Georgia QB Stetson Bennett
In the Bulldogs’ win over Kent State, Bennett threw for a mere 272 yards and no TDs, while also tossing a pick. A blemish on the Heisman resume, you ask? Ha! Bennett is next level, guys. He handed over the offense to Brock Bowers in a brilliant move to boost team chemistry. The rest of the world is playing checkers and Bennett is playing — what’s even better than chess? Backgammon? Hungry Hungry Hippos?
3. Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud
Stroud threw his first interception of the season. What a bum! Oh, the other throws? Let us check on that and … ah, 235 yards and five TDs.
4. Minnesota RB Mohamed Ibrahim
Tanner Morgan tossed three touchdowns and had just three incompletions in a win over Michigan State, which meant a little less work than normal for Ibrahim. Still, he kept his 100-yard game streak intact, racking up 103 yards on 22 carries with a touchdown. He’s now hit the century mark in 13 straight games dating back to 2020, matching Nick Chubb and D’Onta Foreman as the second-longest stretches of the playoff era. The only player with a longer streak is Ezekiel Elliott, who went for 100 in 15 straight games from 2014-2015.
5. Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker
Hooker is the first quarterback with 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards and a TD both ways in an SEC game since 2018. Since his first start in Week 3 last year, Hooker has played in 15 games, averaging 10 yards per pass, accounting for 45 touchdowns and throwing just two interceptions. He’s been incredible.
Bowers pounds the rock
Brock Bowers is a tight end. He’s an incredibly talented tight end, of course, but a tight end, nevertheless.
And yet, Georgia has seen fit to use Bowers as a runner on three occasions this season. Those three runs resulted in a 5-yard touchdown, a 75-yard touchdown and a 2-yard touchdown.
To recap for those who are not great at math, that’s three rushes and three rushing touchdowns.
0:49
Brock Bowers takes the handoff and scores to put the Bulldogs up 7-0.
How impressive is that? Well, Massachusetts is an entire football team. Bowers is one guy. UMass has 201 rushing attempts this year. Bowers has three. UMass has two rushing TDs. Bowers has three.
We can’t help but wonder, if Mike Bobo had Bowers in his backfield instead of just Todd Gurley and Sony Michel and Nick Chubb and Keith Marshall, how much heartache could’ve been saved among Georgia Twitter users?
Under-the-radar game of the week
You’re forgiven if you didn’t have Fordham at Ohio circled on the TV schedule Saturday, but the Rams and Bobcats put on one heck of a show.
Both teams had more than 600 yards of offense. Both had more than 500 passing yards. Both had more than 100 penalty yards.
Final score: Ohio 59, Fordham 52.
But the score was hardly the best part of the action. The highlight was Fordham receiver Fotis Kokosioulis, who finished with an astounding 320 yards receiving on 13 catches, four of which went for TDs. And he did all that despite lugging around all those letters on the back of his jersey. Amazing.
1:42
Fordham’s Fotis Kokosioulis has 13 receptions for 320 yards and four touchdowns vs. Ohio.
Under-the-radar play of the week
We’ve seen far too few big-guy touchdowns so far this season, but thankfully Lehigh‘s Dean Colton gave the viewing public what we most crave.
The 285-pound defensive lineman caught a batted ball and returned it 52 yards for the score against Princeton.
LEHIGH WITH THE THICC SIX ? pic.twitter.com/l3fo3dMuPi
— ESPN+ (@ESPNPlus) September 24, 2022
Big bets and bad beats
DJ Uiagalelei managed to rescue Clemson from the precipice of defeat against Wake Forest on Saturday, but he didn’t salvage a hefty contingent of bettors. Clemson closed as a 7.5-point favorite at Caesars Sportsbook, with 82% of tickets and 87% of money on the Tigers. When the two teams made it to a second overtime, things set up nicely for Clemson to muster a shocking cover. The Tigers scored first and then, by rule, had to go for 2. Uiagalelei’s pass fell incomplete, however, and Clemson won 51-45.
After trailing for the bulk of the game, Oregon roared back in the second half and looked poised to cover a 6-point spread. But the betting gods intervened. Washington State backers had to watch their team fall apart in the final quarter, but the Cougars got the ball with 1:01 to play, drove 75 yards and scored with one second remaining. Final score, 44-41 Oregon and a very lucky cover for Washington State.
Middle Tennessee was Week 4’s upset special. The Blue Raiders closed at +25.5, and +1550 on the money line, against Miami. They never trailed in the game and won by 14. It was a tough day if you bet the Miami money line, which failed to pay out at -4500.
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David Schoenfield
There is no Juan Soto in MLB free agency this year. There is definitely no Shohei Ohtani. But although there might not be a player who will inspire people to track the flight paths of private jets on social media, it’s an intriguing class of free agents nonetheless — one especially deep in power hitters.
Let’s look at 13 of the most interesting free agents, assuming a few likely player opt-outs, and some potential best fits for each player. We’ll leave out some of the top relievers — Edwin Diaz (opt-out), Robert Suarez (opt-out), Devin Williams — and instead focus on the top position players and starting pitchers available this winter.
Players are ranked in order of their Baseball-Reference WAR from 2025.
2025 stats: .272/.334/.480, 29 HR, 98 RBIs, 13 SB, 5.0 WAR
2026 age: 30
Best fit: New York Mets
Bellinger surprisingly tops the list in 2025 WAR, although that doesn’t by any means suggest he’s going to get the biggest contract. Indeed, although he offers positional versatility with his ability to play all three outfield positions as well as first base, teams will be skeptical of his 2025 numbers since he hit .302 with 18 home runs and a .909 OPS at Yankee Stadium with its short porch compared with .241 with 11 home runs and a .715 OPS on the road. Bellinger works for the Mets both in center field — heck, they were playing 33-year-old infielder Jeff McNeil out there at times — and at first, if they don’t re-sign Pete Alonso.
Another possible fit: New York Yankees
A reunion with the Yankees is possible, but if the Yankees are committed to Jasson Dominguez in left field and give Spencer Jones a shot in center, they’re going to be reluctant to give Bellinger a long-term contract. Given some of their recent returns on long deals (DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton), they probably don’t want to get sucked into another big contract for a non-superstar player, no matter how good Bellinger was in 2025.
2025 stats: .240/.365/.563, 56 HR, 132 RBIs, 4.7 WAR
2026 age: 33
Best fit: Philadelphia Phillies
Everyone expects Schwarber to return to the Phillies, coming off his 56-homer season and with his added value as one of the best teammates in the game. Nothing is guaranteed, however, and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is balancing a lot of decisions this offseason. J.T. Realmuto is also a free agent, Ranger Suarez is a free agent and Zack Wheeler‘s return is a question, plus the team in general is getting older. But it’s still a team in a championship window — if Schwarber remains in the lineup.
Another possible fit: Mets
Think the Mets would love to steal Schwarber away from the Phillies? Addition and then subtraction from your rival. Would Schwarber leave the Phillies for the enemy? Players are a lot less loyal than we’d like to believe. Starling Marte was the Mets’ primary DH and he’s a free agent, plus consider: The Mets signed Soto and Alonso had a better season — yet they still scored two fewer runs than in 2024. It was an above-average offense, fifth in the NL in runs, but it wasn’t a great offense. Adding Schwarber could take it to the next level.
2025 stats: 12-8. 3.20 ERA, 157 IP, 154 H, 38 BB, 151 SO, 4.7 WAR
2026 age: 30
Best fit: Detroit Tigers
Suarez has been a steady and underrated pitcher since 2021, with a 3.25 ERA over the past five seasons, relying on a six-pitch repertoire that allows him to overcome below-average fastball velocity. He always gets dinged up at some point, so he’s a 150-inning pitcher as opposed to a 180-inning guy, but that still makes him a good fit for the Tigers, who need rotation depth, should have plenty of room in the payroll and could trade Tarik Skubal (sorry, Tigers fans).
Another possible fit: Toronto Blue Jays
Suarez will have a lot of interest even though he lacks that blistering fastball. Indeed, his lack of No. 1-starter pedigree will bring more teams into the bidding, even if he’s expected to get a nine-figure deal. The Blue Jays are an interesting fit here. Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer are free agents; Shane Bieber has a player option; and Kevin Gausman is a free agent after the 2026 season. They’ll be looking for some long-term stability in the rotation.
2025 stats: .266/.377/.464, 22 HR, 73 RBIs, 25 SB, 4.5 WAR
2026 age: 29
Best fit: Los Angeles Dodgers
If healthy, Tucker would have led this list in WAR — he was hitting .291/.395/.537 for the Chicago Cubs at the end of June when he suffered a fracture in his right hand, which he tried to play through. But he hit just .225 the rest of the way. Indeed, he’s projected to get the biggest contract of the offseason, perhaps as much as $400 million.
As good as he has been, there are some Anthony Rendon vibes here: Tucker has now been injured two years in a row (he also missed much of September with a calf injury); he’s turning 29; his speed/range Statcast metrics aren’t great (26th percentile in both categories); and he’s not a “face of the franchise” type of personality, which you normally expect for $400 million.
Could the Dodgers absorb another huge contract? Well, why not? The Dodgers are the best fit of “will spend money” and “have need,” considering they got nothing from left field in 2025 and suddenly have concerns about Mookie Betts‘ long-term impact at the plate after his subpar (for him) season.
Another possible fit: San Francisco Giants
The Giants, of course, have been trying to land an elite offensive player in free agency forever — finally trading for Rafael Devers last June. Giants corner outfielders hit just .237/.309/.378 with 37 home runs and 12 stolen bases, so adding Tucker to the lineup would give them a much-needed second lefty power hitter (with rookie slugger Bryce Eldridge likely to take over at first base, too).
2025 stats: 13-11, 3.66 ERA, 192 IP, 171 H, 68 BB, 187 SO, 3.8 WAR
2026 age: 32
Best fit: Baltimore Orioles
At some point, the Orioles will sign the front-line starter they need, right? Right?! They finished 24th in rotation ERA at 4.65 and had seven starters who made at least 10 starts in 2025 — and four of them had ERAs over 5.00. That’s not going to cut it in the AL East. Trevor Rogers (1.81 ERA in 18 starts) did emerge in the second half, and Kyle Bradish returned from Tommy John surgery at the end of the season, but the Orioles have lacked that durable No. 1-type starter and Valdez is second in innings pitched over the past four seasons.
Another possible fit: Houston Astros
The Astros have the need to bring Valdez back as the rotation was mostly a mess in 2025 aside from him and Hunter Brown. The payroll, however, looks pretty maxed out with the likes of Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker and Josh Hader (they’re also paying Lance McCullers Jr. and Cristian Javier a combined $39 million in 2026). Don’t rule out a return, but the Astros have let other stars leave in free agency — Correa, Alex Bregman, George Springer, Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander.
2025 stats: .228/.298/.526, 49 HR, 118 RBIs, 3.6 WAR
2026 age: 34
Best fit: Athletics
The A’s aren’t often included in lists like this one — especially for a player coming off 49 home runs — but a lot of factors could push Suarez to the A’s: his age, his below-average OBP and strikeout rate, his subpar production after he was traded to Seattle. The A’s started nine players at third base in 2025 (players who combined for just 10 home runs), and Suarez would certainly bring power and durability — he has missed just seven games the past three seasons. He’s also a good clubhouse guy who would fit in with the team’s younger players. The A’s surprised people by signing Luis Severino last offseason, so they could land Suarez in a similar scenario.
Other possible fits: Tigers, Milwaukee Brewers, Arizona Diamondbacks, Seattle Mariners
The Brewers (.234, 11 HR, .650 OPS) and Tigers (.221, 11 HR, .629) both made the playoffs despite subpar production at third base. Milwaukee loves high-contact offensive players, so maybe Suarez doesn’t fit there, and Detroit might not want to add another high-strikeout rate guy in the middle of the lineup on top of Riley Greene. The D-backs and Mariners are familiar with Suarez — he played for each in 2025 — but both have young players in Jordan Lawlar and Colt Emerson whom they could play at third.
2025 stats: .273/.360/.462, 18 HR, 62 RBIs, 3.5 WAR
2026 age: 32
Best fit: Boston Red Sox
Bregman hit free agency last year and didn’t sign until the middle of February, a three-year, $120 million deal with opt-outs after both 2025 and 2026. He played well enough with the Red Sox that he’s likely to test free agency, even though a quad strain limited him to 114 games. After a hot start, he didn’t hit nearly as well after returning in July — .250/.338/.386. The big surprise is that the pull-happy Bregman hit better on the road (.875 OPS) than at Fenway (.761 OPS).
Still, the Red Sox remain the best fit. He was an important veteran presence for Boston’s young position players, and he’s a right-handed bat in a lineup otherwise heavy in lefties (Jarren Duran, Roman Anthony, Wilyer Abreu, Masataka Yoshida). Bregman’s age presents some risk on a long-term deal, but although his speed metrics are sinking (17th percentile), he still has good range at third base and brought his OBP back up after it dropped to .315 in 2024.
Other possible fits: Tigers, Yankees, Phillies
Bregman’s contact ability makes him a likely fit for the Tigers — and he’ll be too expensive for the Brewers. The interesting long shot candidates would be the Yankees and Phillies. The Yankees have Ryan McMahon under contract, but he posted a .641 OPS after coming over from the Colorado Rockies at the trade deadline and his strikeout issues are a concern. The Phillies have Alec Bohm in his final year of team control, but Bohm produced just 1.3 WAR in 2025 and the Phillies are a little tired of his lack of postseason production (.225, 2 HR, 14 RBIs in 38 playoff games). Bregman’s fire might be what the Phillies need.
2025 stats: .272/.347/.524, 38 HR, 126 RBIs, 3.4 WAR
2026 age: 31
Best fit: Mets
Alonso’s stature — and ability to hit home runs and drive in runs — means he’s the highest-profile free agent alongside Schwarber, even if his WAR puts him lower on this list. Alonso has averaged 42 home runs per 162 games throughout his career, and his durability is one of his selling points — he hasn’t missed a game the past two seasons. Alonso was a free agent last year and there wasn’t much interest, so he went back to the Mets on a deal that gave him an opt-out and responded with a better campaign in 2025.
Will there be more demand this offseason? Perhaps. But Alonso is a 31-year-old first baseman who is a below-average defender. He has elite power but not elite on-base percentages. That all makes him a “high risk” category, and he’s not quite in the class of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Freddie Freeman or Matt Olson, the first basemen who received big nine-figure deals since 2022. It’s hard to envision Alonso leaving the Mets, but president of baseball operations David Stearns won’t overpay to bring him back — and Alonso might not be so willing to give the Mets a sweetheart of a deal this time around.
Other possible fits: Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals
The Texas Rangers didn’t get the output they wanted from Jake Burger; the Red Sox could move on from Triston Casas; and the Phillies (if they don’t sign Schwarber) and Atlanta Braves might consider Alonso as a DH, but let’s toss out the Marlins. Their first basemen hit just .234 with 15 home runs. They haven’t had a 2-WAR first baseman since Justin Bour in 2017 or a 3-WAR first baseman since Derrek Lee in 2002. Teams always think they can fill first base with adequate offense, but the Marlins are proof that’s not always the case. Alonso is also from Florida, which might help. A more realistic long shot might be the Nationals, who need a big bopper and have plenty of room in the payroll.
2025 stats: .311/.357/.483, 18 HR, 94 RBIs, 3.4 WAR
2026 age: 28
Best fit: Giants
Bichette’s free agency will be fascinating. Given his poor defensive metrics at shortstop, it’s almost a certainty teams will be looking at him as a second or third baseman rather than a shortstop — even the Blue Jays (the team he has been with his entire career), who would move Andres Gimenez to shortstop. That’s not a bad thing for Bichette, as it opens up his possible destinations to more teams if he’s willing to change positions.
Although he is a .294 hitter, it will be interesting to see how he ages: He already doesn’t run well (21st percentile in speed) and he doesn’t walk much, so his offensive production is heavily reliant on his batting average. We mentioned the Giants as a potential fit for Kyle Tucker. The same goes for Bichette, as Giants second basemen hit just .216/.273/.342.
Another possible fit: Kansas City Royals
OK, can the Royals realistically afford to sign Bichette? Probably not, but a double-play combination of Bobby Witt Jr. and Bichette would be a lot of fun, and Bichette’s style of hitting would be a good fit for that park. Royals second basemen hit just .236 with 11 home runs, and we know the lineup needs something else. The Royals aren’t the Pittsburgh Pirates or Tampa Bay Rays. They will spend some money — although there isn’t much wiggle room based on the 2025 payroll — and there is a contention window right now with their current rotation.
2025 stats: .295/.353/.462, 20 HR, 92 RBIs, 30 SB, 3.1 WAR
2026 age: 29
Best fit: Mariners
Naylor was the perfect fit for the Mariners, who had not only struggled at first base but also needed a more contact-oriented hitter like Naylor for the middle of the lineup when they traded for him at this year’s deadline. He unveiled one of the most surprising secret weapons, going 30-for-32 as a base stealer despite being one of the slowest runners in baseball. Although many hitters are reluctant to sign with the Mariners, Naylor loves hitting at T-Mobile Park, with a career line of .304/.335/.534. The Mariners should have room to bring him back.
Another possible fit: Rangers
Rangers first basemen/DHs combined for a .657 OPS — only the Rockies were worse. Texas still has Jake Burger and Joc Pederson (who will probably exercise his $18.5 million player option), but both had sub-.290 OBPs, so the Rangers will consider upgrading.
2025 stats: 8-12, 4.55 ERA, 168 IP, 152 H, 71 BB, 215 SO, 1.1 WAR
2026 age: 30
Best fit: Cubs
Cease’s eventual contract will far outpace his ERA and low WAR from 2025. Teams will focus on the power arm (average fastball of 97.1 mph), the high strikeout rate and the durability (five straight seasons with at least 32 starts). A return to the Cubs would be full circle as they originally drafted Cease in the sixth round out of high school in 2014 before trading him to the Chicago White Sox in the Jose Quintana deal.
The 2025 Cubs were a prime example of why teams prefer those power arms in the postseason. With Cade Horton injured, Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga were their top two starters, two lefties without high K rates. They have plenty of payroll room to make a big rotation signing.
Another possible fit: San Diego Padres (and every other contender)
With Cease and Michael King (who has a player opt-out) in free agency, the Padres would have Nick Pivetta, Yu Darvish, Randy Vasquez, Joe Musgrove (returning from Tommy John surgery) and perhaps Mason Miller in their rotation — and the options thin out in a hurry after that. But is there room in a payroll that is already pushing $200 million heading into the offseason?
2025 stats: 13-15, 4.83 ERA, 192 IP, 176 H, 66 BB, 175 SO, 1.1 WAR
2026 age: 30
Best fit: Diamondbacks
Like Cease, Gallen is hitting free agency with a high ERA. Unlike Cease, he averages 93.5 mph with his fastball instead of 97. Gallen’s home run rate nearly doubled from 0.8 per nine innings in 2024 to 1.5 in 2025, and his strikeout rate plummeted to a career-low 21.5%, a notable 5-percentage-points decline from his career rate entering the season. He did pitch better the final two months with a 3.32 ERA. Still, maybe some of the questions push Gallen back to the Diamondbacks, who will enter the offseason down him, Merrill Kelly and Corbin Burnes (Tommy John surgery) from their initial 2025 rotation.
Another possible fit: Los Angeles Angels
Does anyone want to play for the Angels? Their recent free agent signings have been more of the third-tier type, but they have room in the payroll and two pitchers from their 2025 rotation hitting free agency in Tyler Anderson and Kyle Hendricks. They signed Yusei Kikuchi to a three-year, $63 million deal last offseason and might do something similar this offseason with a starter like Gallen.
Munetaka Murakami, 3B/1B (Japan)
2025 stats: .286/.392/.659, 24 HR, 52 RBIs
2026 age: 26
Best fit: Mariners
A big left-handed slugger, Murakami has been a star in Japan since he hit 36 home runs as a 19-year-old in 2019. He followed that up with a career-high 56 home runs in 2022. He missed time this past season with an oblique injury but hit 24 home runs in 69 games. He does strike out a concerning amount — 168 times in 140 games in 2023 and 180 times in 143 games in 2024 — so projects as more of a low-average, 30-homer slugger. Murakami’s defense is considered below average at both corner positions, but his age helps make him an attractive free agent.
We mentioned Colt Emerson as a replacement for Eugenio Suarez at third base for the Mariners, but a year in Triple-A wouldn’t hurt, and Emerson could then take over at shortstop in 2027. That leaves Murakami as a fit for third base, or a backup option to Josh Naylor at first base. The Mariners have certainly shown they’re OK with strikeouts if it comes with power.
Another possible fit: Dodgers
The Dodgers? Hey, you have to consider the Dodgers a possibility for any Japanese player. They obviously have Freddie Freeman locked into first base and have a $10 million option on Max Muncy, but note that Murakami did play a few games in the outfield in 2025. Given their hole in left field, maybe they fake left-field defense with Murakami for a year and then have him replace Muncy at third base in 2027. In the bigger picture, the Dodgers had the oldest group of position players in 2025. Only Andy Pages was younger than 30 among the top 11 regulars. They need to get younger, and Murakami is younger — and less expensive to sign — than Kyle Tucker.
Sports
Early MLB offseason rumors and buzz: Which stars will get traded? Which teams will rule the winter?
The MLB hot stove season is here!
As players become free to sign with any team they choose (free agency officially begins Thursday at 5 p.m. ET), we asked our MLB reporters to open their notebooks with all of the intel they collected from execs, agents and other baseball insiders during the 2025 World Series.
What is the early word on top free agents Kyle Tucker and Kyle Schwarber? Will the Detroit Tigers consider moving Tarik Skubal? How will the Los Angeles Dodgers and Toronto Blue Jays approach the offseason after meeting in the World Series? Which other teams are generating the most buzz across the industry? And who could be traded this winter?
Here is what we’re hearing as the hot stove ignites.
What is the early word on top free agent hitters Kyle Tucker and Kyle Schwarber?
Jeff Passan: Tucker falls in that interesting bucket where he will rightly demand a contract in excess of $300 million, but the number of teams willing to pay that will limit his options. The Dodgers and Giants make sense, as do the Phillies. Schwarber, on the other hand, will have a bountiful market.
Because he’ll be 33 on Opening Day, Schwarber is looking at a maximum five-year deal. Even at a high average annual value, the lack of years keeps mid-market teams in the mix. Ultimately, though, the bidding is likely to come down to bigger-market teams, and he could wind up with a bigger per-year number than Tucker on account of that.
Jesse Rogers: The Cubs are likely going to let Tucker walk while the Phillies haven’t closed the door on a reunion with Schwarber. Chicago has more budget constraints than Philadelphia, meaning the Cubs probably don’t want to tie up $35-40 million on one player.
Somebody will be willing though, especially if Tucker can slide into a ready-made lineup — like the Dodgers’. There was some fun chatter about him joining his hometown Rays under new ownership, but a megadeal from Tampa isn’t likely. Industry insiders begin analysis of Tucker with the phrase, “when he’s healthy.” He’s as good as it gets at the plate when he is, but a couple of injuries over the past two seasons have thrown a wrench into his overall production.
Schwarber is one of those rare players — think Marcus Semien — who will make more money in his mid-30s than he did previously. He should sign for much more than $79 million, which is what he just made in his previous deal with Philadelphia. The Phillies need him more than he needs them, according to insiders. How do you replace 187 home runs over the past four years? You don’t. He could also balance out the Yankees’ lineup if Cody Bellinger walks. Can you imagine his home run totals with the short porch at Yankee Stadium?
Both players have the same agent — Casey Close of Excel — but they bring different skill sets to the table, meaning the crossover between interested teams may not materialize.
What do those in the industry think the Detroit Tigers will do with Tarik Skubal this winter?
Buster Olney: Other teams believe the Tigers will seriously consider moving him if they can glean what they want in a trade — and there is every reason to expect a significant bidding war for Skubal, who will be eligible for free agency after next season.
The Mariners are expected to be among the teams that go after Skubal, to bring him back to the city where he attended college. The Mets, of course, have an acute need for an ace to lead their rotation — a need borne out through their late-season collapse — and they have the sort of major-league-ready young talent that the Tigers will want, like Jonah Tong. The Red Sox are well-positioned to make a run at Skubal, if they want.
The only sure thing in this situation, it seems, is that Skubal will not sign a long-term deal with Detroit before he reaches free agency, and that will frame the Tigers’ decision-making.
Rogers: There are mixed feelings on Skubal. Even if he’s headed for free agency in a year, some believe the Tigers can still squeeze another playoff season out of him and then reassess under perhaps a new economic climate in baseball. Others believe Tigers president Scott Harris is too smart to let him walk for nothing more than draft pick compensation (under the current system), with the hope that whomever he might get in return helps the Tigers in 2026 and not just in the long term.
Some insiders see his situation as a test for owner Chris Ilitch. Will he open his wallet like his dad, Mike, used to or will he go the more conservative approach?
What should we expect from the Dodgers and Blue Jays this winter after reaching the World Series?
Jorge Castillo: The Blue Jays outperformed expectations all season as underdogs and nearly pulled off the upset in the World Series, but this isn’t some small-market outfit. Backed by Rogers Communications and an entire country, the Blue Jays spend money (see: Vladimir Guerrero’s $500 million contract) and have targeted the sport’s biggest free agents in recent years (see: Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto).
Starting pitching and the bullpen figure to reside near the top of their list of priorities this winter, but the first matter to address is Bo Bichette‘s future. Bichette is a homegrown star coming off a timely bounce-back regular season before battling through a knee sprain to go 8-for-23 with a .923 OPS in the World Series. His defensive metrics plunged at shortstop this season, perhaps enough for teams to consider him for second or third base.
Toronto already has about $850 million in future commitments. Adding a nine-figure deal for Bichette would spike their projected 2026 payroll close to $200 million with holes to fill in their pitching staff. But the Blue Jays, after again dabbling in luxury tax territory in 2025, have the money.
Alden Gonzalez: The Dodgers have one massive need heading into the offseason — they need a closer. More broadly, they need trusted arms late in games, particularly right-handed ones. Brusdar Graterol (coming off shoulder surgery), Blake Treinen (37 and coming off a rough year), Edgardo Henriquez and Will Klein (hard throwers with command issues) are the incumbents there, and they all have questions. So look for the Dodgers to be really aggressive in that space, either through free agency or via trade, or both.
But what will attract the most attention in the early part of this offseason will be the Dodgers’ ties to Skubal and Tucker. They’ll be engaged on both of those players, simply because they can, but it will probably be on the periphery.
After a disappointing end to the season for both New York teams, how active do those in the industry expect the Yankees and Mets to be this winter?
Castillo: The consensus seems to be that the Mets will be more active after their disappointing season. The Mets need a front-line starting pitcher. Skubal rumors erupted as soon as the Tigers were eliminated from the postseason, but acquiring the Cy Young Award winner will require president of baseball operations David Stearns to venture beyond his comfort zone. Then there’s the case of first baseman Pete Alonso, a free agent for the second straight offseason. Alonso wants a lucrative long-term deal coming off a rebound campaign. The Mets probably aren’t going to give him one, which would leave first base to fill.
The Yankees have moves to make, too. Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham, Devin Williams and Luke Weaver are all free agents. Re-signing Bellinger, who fit in so seamlessly in his one season in the Bronx, is a priority, but he’s going to have a few deep-pocketed suitors. The Yankees could also use some rotation depth with Carlos Rodón, Gerrit Cole, and Clarke Schmidt all out for at least the beginning of next season.
But between the two teams, the Mets — with owner Steve Cohen still hunting for a championship after five seasons in control — are more likely to execute big splashes this winter.
Olney: There is insight to be gleaned from the trade deadline activity of the New York teams, when they both were aggressive in trying to better position themselves for championship runs — the Yankees loading up on relievers and adding third baseman Ryan McMahon, and the Mets also working to bolster their bullpen.
The working goal for both organizations is plainly apparent: Anything short of a shot at a World Series title will be regarded as failure. So, yes, the Yankees will try to reconstruct a better, deeper bullpen; replace Bellinger, if he re-signs elsewhere, with an outfielder or two who can help the lineup around Aaron Judge and Ben Rice; and build more options at shortstop beyond Anthony Volpe, who is expected to miss the start of the 2026 season.
For the Mets, that could be targeting Skubal, or a free agent signing, and resolving the future of Alonso once and for all.
What other team are you hearing could dominate the headlines this winter?
Gonzalez: A lot of eyes this offseason will be on the Mariners, coming off their deepest postseason run in franchise history. Seattle came painstakingly close to reaching its first World Series but remains the only franchise that hasn’t.
Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor, the two midseason acquisitions brought in to bolster the lineup, are now free agents, which means the Mariners once again have a massive need for offense to support their dynamic pitching staff.
Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told local reporters recently that payroll is expected to be roughly where it stood at season’s end, at about $165 million. When accounting for the contracts that have since expired, that gives them somewhere in the neighborhood of $35 million to spend — all of which can go to bats. The Mariners are widely expected to be aggressive in free agency, but they also have the prospect capital to pull off massive trades. And if there’s anybody who can be counted on to be aggressive when the moment demands it, it’s Dipoto.
Rogers: The Phillies. As they continue to chase a ring, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is always willing to do more than just tinker with his roster. Obviously, Schwarber’s situation will help determine their path this offseason but fortifying the bullpen as well as the outfield should be high on their to-do list. And he won’t stop there. With Zack Wheeler on the mend and Ranger Suarez a free agent, the Phillies could need more in their rotation.
Dombrowski won’t overreact to another postseason loss — his team did win the NL East — but he also won’t leave things to chance. He’ll try to find as much redundancy to his roster as he can, like the Dodgers have been able to do. That takes money.
Who are the biggest names you are hearing could be traded this winter?
Olney: Because of the looming labor situation, some younger stars who are under team control in 2027 before reaching free agency could be shoved into the trade market by circumstances this winter.
The best example: Joe Ryan, who is eligible for free agency after the ’27 season. Typically, the Twins could wait until next summer’s trade deadline to consider taking offers for Ryan. However, with many executives believing that at least some of the ’27 season is in jeopardy because of the labor strife, placing an appropriate trade valuation on Ryan will be much, much more complicated next July; teams might not be willing to part with significant return if they believe the ’27 season will be truncated or lost. So if teams want to get proper return on players like Ryan, they could be better served to take offers this winter, rather than waiting until next summer.
Other players who could fit this timeline: MacKenzie Gore of the Nationals, the Guardians’ Steven Kwan, the Cardinals’ Lars Nootbaar and the Orioles’ Adley Rutschman. If those players aren’t going to be locked down with multiyear deals, the best time to get value in a deal for them could be this winter.
Passan: Everyone wants Skubal, the soon-to-be two-time American League Cy Young winner, but as of now, the industry expects Detroit to hold onto him, even with his free agency approaching after the 2026 season.
Another arm with questions as to whether he’ll go: Milwaukee right-hander Freddy Peralta, who at $8 million is cheap and will hit free agency next winter. Most of the bigger names that will draw interest are pitchers: Minnesota right-handers Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez, Washington left-hander MacKenzie Gore and St. Louis right-hander Sonny Gray.
Boston could be active in moving one of its outfielders, either Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu. One player widely expected to be moved: St. Louis third baseman Nolan Arenado, who is willing to waive his no-trade clause.
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