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There are Saturdays when the true playoff contenders emerge with such ferocity and dominance they cannot be ignored.

There are Saturdays when the whole system feels rigged, and upsets knock one team after another from the ranks of the elite.

And then there are Saturdays like Week 4, where the goal is simply survival.

In Winston-Salem, upstart Wake Forest decimated Clemson‘s battered secondary to such a degree that, after the game, Dabo Swinney suggested he was one drive away from playing cornerback himself.

On the Palouse, Washington State delivered body blows to Oregon in a quest to upend the Pac-12’s power structure.

In the Big House, Maryland refused to go away, frustrating Michigan again and again.

Out west, Lincoln Riley’s offense finally met its match in Oregon State, which tormented QB Caleb Williams until the Trojans’ final drive.

In each case, however, the favorite survived.

It was the same story up and down the top 25. Georgia struggled to put away Kent State, allowing more than twice as many points Saturday as the Bulldogs had all season. Baylor had two takeaways, held Iowa State to just 66 yards on the ground, and still had to hold its breath on a final onside kick try. Ole Miss barely scraped by Tulsa. Kentucky went to halftime tied with Northern Illinois. Tennessee dominated Florida, then nearly let the Gators come back in a frenetic final few minutes, saved, in part, by Billy Napier’s inexplicable decision to go for two with 4:49 to play, trailing by 11.

Saturday was like one long thriller, the main character narrowly escaping one harrowing scenario after another, emerging battered, bloodied and bruised … but alive.

The same could not be said for everyone.

Texas saw a 14-point second-half lead disappear as Texas Tech roared back to take a 34-31 lead with 21 seconds remaining. Still, the Longhorns fought back, sending the game to overtime, only to witness Bijan Robinson fumble on the first play of extra time. It was the Longhorns’ seventh loss by a touchdown or less in their past 11 games.

Arkansas went to Dallas and appeared poised to trounce Texas A&M, but a KJ Jefferson fumble as he leaped for the end zone turned into a 97-yard touchdown for the Aggies, and the entire script was flipped. Jimbo Fisher dove deep into his Cheesecake Factory menu — wait, no, we’re being told those are his play sheets — and finally found a spark for the Aggies’ offense, knocking off the Razorbacks 23-21. It was a shocking outcome, given that Jerry Jones usually has to wait until the NFL playoffs to witness his team incomprehensibly fall apart.

Oklahoma became the latest victim of the curse of Scott Frost. Northwestern beat Nebraska in Week 0, and it hasn’t won since. Georgia Southern stunned the Cornhuskers in Week 2, then lost the following week to UAB. Oklahoma delivered a rout of Nebraska last week, then could not stop former Huskers QB Adrian Martinez on Saturday, as Kansas State knocked the Sooners from the ranks of the unbeaten, 41-34. Nebraska is like the VHS tape in “The Ring.” All who come into contact with it are doomed to perish within seven days.

It might be easy to find fault with Clemson, which needed overtime to vanquish Sam Hartman and Wake’s downfield passing attack, but the Tigers still won and remain in the playoff hunt. Perhaps that’s all the narrative that matters. Plus, Swinney got to scold reporters for criticizing his QB.

Did Georgia sleepwalk through what it reasonably expected to be an easy win? Probably. But it’s OK for 21 guys to sleepwalk, so long as Brock Bowers is occasionally running.

Did J.J. McCarthy look mortal against Maryland? Perhaps. But after playing three of the worst teams in the country to open the season, Michigan was bound to find tougher sledding in Big Ten play.

Riley could’ve added transfers from 2019 LSU, 2013 Florida State and several members of the 2001 St. Louis Rams, and it might not have been enough to answer the terrific defensive performance from Oregon State. But Williams, who completed fewer than half his passes, completed the necessary throws.

See, winning is hard, and for a few potential contenders the job proved too big Saturday.

For the rest, they’ll survive a bit longer. But as with all horror films, there will be sequels, and what ultimately determines who’s ready for a real playoff push and who’ll simply get a cameo in the next movie might come down to what lessons they learned from a brutal Week 4.


Kansas is actually good

It is written in the Book of Revelations (or maybe it’s in “Bill and Ted’s Bogus Journey”) that in the end times all mountains and valleys will be leveled to the plains and, we assume, from those Great Plains a Jayhawk will rise from the ashes.

Well, the apocalypse is upon us. Thanks a lot, Lance Leipold.

Yes, Kansas is 4-0. And it’s not just a schedule-aided, paper-thin 4-0. The Jayhawks upended undefeated Duke on Saturday, throwing for 324 yards, rushing for 204 and looking like one of the most dynamic offenses in the country. This comes on the heels of an overtime win against West Virginia and a surprising upset of Houston.

Kansas, dare we say, is for real.

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Daniel Hishaw Jr. breaks tackles left and right as he goes 73 yards for the Kansas touchdown.

To understand just how wild that sounds, remember that the last time Kansas won four games in an entire season, “Avatar” was in theaters. (OK, we’re being told “Avatar” is somehow in theaters again now. Is this Kansas season all just CGI from James Cameron?)

The Jayhawks went to the Orange Bowl in 2007, won eight games in 2008, then stumbled to a 5-7 finish in 2009. What followed was the most prolific comedic run since Bob Hope. Now what will we laugh at? Will it even still be funny the next time Kansas beats Texas?

Kansas spent a decade trying past-their-prime quick fixes such as Charlie Weis and Les Miles and up-and-coming coaches such as Turner Gill and David Beatty. We’re fairly certain at one point the Jayhawks resorted to a shaman and a wax statue of Bear Bryant. None of it helped. Then Leipold arrived and it was as if the program awakened from a long sleep.

Think of the litany of players who’ve come through Lawrence in the past 15 years. Seriously, think of them because, frankly, we can’t remember any. For a generation of college football fans in Kansas, the closest thing they had to a celebrity was Baby Mangino, and he’s now a retired sanitation worker living outside Sarasota, Florida, and collecting social security (again, we assume).

But now, there are stars. Jalon Daniels threw for 324 yards Saturday, ran for 83 more and accounted for five touchdowns. Jayhawks boosters might as well start chipping in for a statue of the guy now. Four different Kansas receivers caught a touchdown against Duke. In 2020, four different Kansas receivers caught a touchdown all season! Kansas has a cornerback named Cobee Bryant. Sure, it’s spelled differently from the better-known Kobe, but “C” is a more versatile letter than “K” and the extra “E” is for “eventually we’re gonna be ranked.”

And no, it probably doesn’t signify the end is near. Had Kent State pulled the upset over Georgia or Central Michigan stayed with Penn State or Wake Forest finished off a win over Clemson, then maybe it’d be time to head for the underground bunker.

But these are strange times. The Jayhawks aren’t just relevant, they’re actually good.

Perhaps there’s a lesson in here for all of us — something about persevering through adversity and knowing that someday hard work will be rewarded. Or, perhaps, it’s that you should never give Charlie Weis a long-term contract. Both options are good advice.

The remaining schedule will be tougher with Iowa State, undefeated TCU and then three straight ranked foes. Perhaps this is the Jayhawks high-water mark for 2022. If so, that’s OK. Because we’ve seen a new horizon for a team that spent the past 15 years steadily walking into a brick wall like a video game character after your cat sits on the controller. But now, Kansas is something more — a program with a pulse, a team moving in the right direction, a fan base that isn’t simply counting down the days until basketball season.


We’re 4-0, too

Kansas may have finally earned some respect with its win Saturday to move to 4-0, but the Jayhawks aren’t the only remaining undefeated teams still hoping to attract a few poll voters.

P.J. Fleck likes to tell his team to “row the boat,” but at this point, the Minnesota Golden Gophers are sailing a yacht confiscated from a Russian oligarch. The Gophers dominated Michigan State on Saturday, and Tanner Morgan & Co. continue to impress. But the really interesting thing about Minnesota is the defense. The Gophers have held 16 straight opponents to fewer than 30 points — the longest active streak in the country.

Florida State demolished Boston College 44-14 on Saturday to get to 4-0. Jordan Travis returned to action and threw for a career-best 321 yards. In Travis’ past 13 starts, Florida State is 10-3.

UCLA narrowly escaped against some lesser opposition earlier this season, but Saturday, Chip Kelly’s crew delivered a dominant win over woeful Colorado 45-17. Dorian Thompson-Robinson threw for 234 yards and two touchdowns, which is impressive for a guy who has to be in his mid-50s by this point.

Syracuse survived Virginia on Friday to move to 4-0, and the Orange appear on a path to emerge as a 12-seed to face Kansas in the Elite Eight.

After Tulane fell to Southern Miss on Saturday, Coastal Carolina is the last remaining team outside the Power 5 with a 4-0 record. Of course, with QB Grayson McCall leaving this week’s win over Georgia State with an injury, the Chanticleers’ hopes could be dashed.

Perhaps it’s still too early to fully endorse any of them, but it seems well past time for each to get some attention from voters and a little love in the top-25 poll.


Punt-a-palooza on the Plains

Saturday might’ve been the day it all ended for Bryan Harsin at Auburn, with Missouri — the SEC’s version of the kid in “Old Yeller” — putting him out of his misery.

The college football gods wouldn’t let him off so easily.

Instead Harsin — and the rest of us — were forced to endure as unfortunate a pillow fight as the season is likely to offer (though Iowa certainly will try to match it).

A quick review of the drive chart from the second half, with the score tied at 14: punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, turnover on downs, missed field goal.

(To answer your question, yes, Kevin Warren has extended an offer for both teams to join the Big Ten.)

That final drive was the most insulting. Auburn had mustered nothing on offense and was down to its fourth-string quarterback. Missouri drove to the 3-yard line to set up a first-and-goal with 45 seconds left. Then, the Tigers — the, um, Missouri ones — took a knee twice to set up a game-winning field goal on third down.

And, of course, the kicker missed.

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Missouri RB Nathaniel Peat fumbles at the goal line in overtime for a touchback, giving Auburn the win.

Auburn won it in overtime 17-14 after kicking a field goal following a drive in which it ran three plays and lost 2 yards. But to be fair, Mizzou really lost the game after fumbling the ball in the end zone when it had its chance to win in OT.

So it was with great pain that Harsin had to cancel his tee time next Saturday, so he can coach this team again. Hasn’t the man suffered enough?


Stroud leads Buckeyes in rout

While a number of the country’s top teams stumbled through the Saturday action, Ohio State looked every bit the part of a potential national champion, annihilating Wisconsin 52-21.

C.J. Stroud threw five touchdown passes. The Buckeyes had two 100-yard backs. The defense held Wisconsin to just 296 yards and 11 first downs.

The 52 points was the most scored against a Wisconsin defense since 2014, when the eventual national champion Buckeyes beat the Badgers 59-0 in the Big Ten title game.

And all of Saturday’s dominance came in a game in which Jaxon Smith-Njigba shut things down early, and the Buckeyes played without a couple of starting defensive backs.

If the sluggish start against Notre Dame in Week 1 offered any opening for doubt, Ohio State has clearly delivered an emphatic rebuke. The remaining schedule appears to offer few serious challenges — a road trip to Penn State on Oct. 29 and the season finale against Michigan excepted — and Stroud’s Heisman push is in full stride.

The biggest threat for Ohio State for the next month might simply be boredom. Or Iowa. They’re kind of the same thing.


JMU ends the mountain magic

It had been a magical start to the season for Appalachian State. In the second half Saturday, however, the Mountaineers’ only trick was making their New Year’s Six hopes disappear.

After jumping out to a 28-3 lead, App State’s second half included four punts, two turnovers on downs and a backbreaking interception that set up a go-ahead touchdown for JMU. Not since the Federalist papers has James Madison delivered such an emphatic defeat to the interests of America’s majority.

So perhaps America’s Cinderella story wasn’t meant to be App State after all. How about the Dukes?

JMU is 3-0 in its first season as an FBS team, and quarterback Todd Centeio has thrown 11 touchdowns without an interception. JMU now has as many wins as an FBS program in three games as UMass has over the past four seasons.


The most college football thing to happen Saturday

Middle Tennessee delivered a dagger to Miami to open the fourth quarter, when quarterback Chase Cunningham connected with DJ England-Chisolm, who corralled the pass behind the defense and sprinted into the end zone for a 98-yard touchdown.

Ah, but Miami had an answer. On the ensuing kickoff, Key’Shawn Smith burst up the middle and ran 91 yards to pay dirt, too.

So, to recap: It took 22 seconds and one offensive play for the two teams to rack up 189 all-purpose yards and 14 points.

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After a 98-yard Middle Tennessee State touchdown, Miami answers right back with a 91-yard touchdown of its own.

It might’ve been an exciting exchange for the upwards of nine fans in attendance to enjoy, but unfortunately, Miami offered little else to cheer for. MTSU stunned the Hurricanes with a 45-31 win. But take heart, Canes fans. Nick Saban lost to Louisiana-Monroe in his first season at Alabama, so Mario Cristobal is still right on track to win a half-dozen national titles in the coming years.


The most college football thing to happen this week (FCS edition)

Stephen F. Austin had a chance to hang 100 on Warner (which Google tells us is a private Christian school in Florida with an enrollment of 815 students). Rather than hit the century mark, however, the Lumberjacks took a knee on a 2-point try.

Somehow, this feels even more insulting.


Heisman Five

We have officially eliminated Tyler Van Dyke from Heisman consideration. Anthony Richardson narrowly stays in the mix by throwing his first touchdown of the season.

1. Alabama QB Bryce Young

Saturday marked the best day of the season for Alabama’s passing game, with 11 players hauling in a grab and Young throwing for 385 yards and four TDs. More importantly, the game offered a check-in on Clark Lea’s preseason prediction that Vanderbilt would eventually become the best team in the country. Perhaps no opponent offers a better measuring stick than Alabama, but the Tide rolled 55-3. It should be noted that the last time these two teams played was 2017, and Alabama won 59-0. So, Vandy is heading in the right direction, and if this trend continues, Lea could be proven correct by 2043.

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Bryce Young throws for 385 yards and four touchdowns as the Crimson Tide roll past the Commodores with a 55-3 victory.

2. Georgia QB Stetson Bennett

In the Bulldogs’ win over Kent State, Bennett threw for a mere 272 yards and no TDs, while also tossing a pick. A blemish on the Heisman resume, you ask? Ha! Bennett is next level, guys. He handed over the offense to Brock Bowers in a brilliant move to boost team chemistry. The rest of the world is playing checkers and Bennett is playing — what’s even better than chess? Backgammon? Hungry Hungry Hippos?

3. Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud

Stroud threw his first interception of the season. What a bum! Oh, the other throws? Let us check on that and … ah, 235 yards and five TDs.

4. Minnesota RB Mohamed Ibrahim

Tanner Morgan tossed three touchdowns and had just three incompletions in a win over Michigan State, which meant a little less work than normal for Ibrahim. Still, he kept his 100-yard game streak intact, racking up 103 yards on 22 carries with a touchdown. He’s now hit the century mark in 13 straight games dating back to 2020, matching Nick Chubb and D’Onta Foreman as the second-longest stretches of the playoff era. The only player with a longer streak is Ezekiel Elliott, who went for 100 in 15 straight games from 2014-2015.

5. Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker

Hooker is the first quarterback with 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards and a TD both ways in an SEC game since 2018. Since his first start in Week 3 last year, Hooker has played in 15 games, averaging 10 yards per pass, accounting for 45 touchdowns and throwing just two interceptions. He’s been incredible.


Bowers pounds the rock

Brock Bowers is a tight end. He’s an incredibly talented tight end, of course, but a tight end, nevertheless.

And yet, Georgia has seen fit to use Bowers as a runner on three occasions this season. Those three runs resulted in a 5-yard touchdown, a 75-yard touchdown and a 2-yard touchdown.

To recap for those who are not great at math, that’s three rushes and three rushing touchdowns.

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Brock Bowers takes the handoff and scores to put the Bulldogs up 7-0.

How impressive is that? Well, Massachusetts is an entire football team. Bowers is one guy. UMass has 201 rushing attempts this year. Bowers has three. UMass has two rushing TDs. Bowers has three.

We can’t help but wonder, if Mike Bobo had Bowers in his backfield instead of just Todd Gurley and Sony Michel and Nick Chubb and Keith Marshall, how much heartache could’ve been saved among Georgia Twitter users?


Under-the-radar game of the week

You’re forgiven if you didn’t have Fordham at Ohio circled on the TV schedule Saturday, but the Rams and Bobcats put on one heck of a show.

Both teams had more than 600 yards of offense. Both had more than 500 passing yards. Both had more than 100 penalty yards.

Final score: Ohio 59, Fordham 52.

But the score was hardly the best part of the action. The highlight was Fordham receiver Fotis Kokosioulis, who finished with an astounding 320 yards receiving on 13 catches, four of which went for TDs. And he did all that despite lugging around all those letters on the back of his jersey. Amazing.

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Fordham’s Fotis Kokosioulis has 13 receptions for 320 yards and four touchdowns vs. Ohio.


Under-the-radar play of the week

We’ve seen far too few big-guy touchdowns so far this season, but thankfully Lehigh‘s Dean Colton gave the viewing public what we most crave.

The 285-pound defensive lineman caught a batted ball and returned it 52 yards for the score against Princeton.


Big bets and bad beats

DJ Uiagalelei managed to rescue Clemson from the precipice of defeat against Wake Forest on Saturday, but he didn’t salvage a hefty contingent of bettors. Clemson closed as a 7.5-point favorite at Caesars Sportsbook, with 82% of tickets and 87% of money on the Tigers. When the two teams made it to a second overtime, things set up nicely for Clemson to muster a shocking cover. The Tigers scored first and then, by rule, had to go for 2. Uiagalelei’s pass fell incomplete, however, and Clemson won 51-45.


After trailing for the bulk of the game, Oregon roared back in the second half and looked poised to cover a 6-point spread. But the betting gods intervened. Washington State backers had to watch their team fall apart in the final quarter, but the Cougars got the ball with 1:01 to play, drove 75 yards and scored with one second remaining. Final score, 44-41 Oregon and a very lucky cover for Washington State.


Middle Tennessee was Week 4’s upset special. The Blue Raiders closed at +25.5, and +1550 on the money line, against Miami. They never trailed in the game and won by 14. It was a tough day if you bet the Miami money line, which failed to pay out at -4500.

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From the big six to MLB’s disappointments: Second-half preview, rankings, playoff odds for all 30 teams

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From the big six to MLB's disappointments: Second-half preview, rankings, playoff odds for all 30 teams

Some things about the 2025 MLB season have been predictable: the Los Angeles Dodgers having one of the best records in the majors, Aaron Judge having another MVP-caliber season, and Paul Skenes continuing to dominate as one of baseball’s best pitchers.

As always, though, there have been a number of surprises, too — both good and bad. The Baltimore Orioles and Atlanta Braves have had incredibly disappointing campaigns, with both clubs near the bottom of their respective leagues. Juan Soto began his tenure with the New York Mets off to a slow start before heating up and riding that momentum into the All-Star break. Nobody thought the Colorado Rockies would be good this year — but nobody thought they’d be this bad, on pace to break the single-season loss record set by the Chicago White Sox just last season.

The second half of the season is sure to bring more excitement, with a battle at the top for best record between the Dodgers, Detroit Tigers and Chicago Cubs. A number of division races are also close, as the Cubs are up only a game on the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central, the Mets are just a half-game behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East and the Toronto Blue Jays, after a red-hot streak to end the first half, lead the New York Yankees by two games. And the wild-card races could go down to the wire, with six teams in the American League within five games of the final wild card and four in the National League within six games of the final spot.

How will all of these teams perform in the second half? Who will dominate in the homestretch? And what does your club have to play for?

We’ve broken down all 30 squads into six tiers based on playoff potential and asked ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers, David Schoenfield, Jorge Castillo, Eric Karabell and Tristan Cockcroft to provide a rundown of what the rest of the season looks like for each team. We’ve also included Doolittle’s final win-loss projections and calculated division title, playoff and championship odds for all 30 teams.

Rest-of-season projections are based on 10,000 Monte Carlo-style simulations of the remaining schedule using Doolittle’s power ratings for each team as the basis for the simulated outcomes. The power ratings are determined by season-to-date results and forecast-based estimates of roster strength.

Note: Teams are in order of best-to-worst playoff odds within their respective tiers.


TIER 1: THE BIG SIX

Record: 59-38 | Projected final record: 96-66

Division title odds: 98.6% | Playoff odds: 99.7% | Championship odds: 13.4%

How they got to the top: The Tigers exploded out of the gate on the strength of a launch-heavy offense and dynamic starting pitching. By the time Detroit cooled a bit, it had already built a double-digit lead in the AL Central. Emergent star power has fueled the Tigers’ well-balanced roster. Riley Greene (.284, 24 homers, 78 RBIs) has led the offense, while defending AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal (10-3, 2.23 ERA) is building a strong case to win the award again. The stars have been boosted by surprise/improved performances from Javier Baez, Spencer Torkelson, Gleyber Torres, Casey Mize and others up and down the roster.

What to expect from here: With the division race all but wrapped up, the Tigers’ second half will be about filling in roster gaps up to and including deadline day (July 31). The pitching staff needs more depth in both the rotation and the bullpen. The starting staff was thinned by Jackson Jobe’s injury and, increasingly, it’s unclear when veteran Alex Cobb might return. More pressing is the need in a bullpen that has been more solid than dominant. In a postseason setting, you want more of the latter than the former when it comes to championship-leverage high points. — Doolittle


Record: 58-39 | Projected final record: 97-65

Division title odds: 91.8% | Playoff odds: 99.0% | Championship odds: 16.4%

How they got to the top: By getting their starting pitchers healthy. The Dodgers entered the All-Star break with the NL’s best record even though they received a combined eight starts from Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, two pitchers who were expected to front their rotation. But Glasnow has since returned from injury, Snell could join him before the end of the month, and Shohei Ohtani is pitching again (and looks really good, albeit in small samples). The Dodgers were severely short-handed in their rotation throughout the first half and had to burn through their bullpen, a unit that leads the majors in innings pitched by a wide margin. They’ve been carried by a deep, high-profile offense and several back-end-of-the-roster pitchers who have taken on bigger roles. Snell and Glasnow being full-fledged members of their rotation, and Ohtani getting more stretched out, could elevate them to a different level.

What to expect from here: The Dodgers still have to bridge a gap at third base, with Max Muncy out at least through July with a knee injury that wasn’t as bad as initially feared. Muncy had been one of the sport’s most productive hitters since the middle of May. The absence of his left-handed bat has left a major void.

Freddie Freeman, meanwhile, is in the midst of a prolonged slump, and Mookie Betts has yet to really get going offensively. Freeman and Betts need to get on track. So does Michael Conforto, who slashed only .184/.298/.322 in the first half. The Dodgers are expected to target back-end relievers ahead of the trade deadline, but they could seek an upgrade in left field if Conforto doesn’t show signs of turning things around. — Gonzalez


Record: 57-39 | Projected final record: 97-65

Division title odds: 79.3% | Playoff odds: 98.6% | Championship odds: 15.4%

How they got to the top: With a dynamic offense that simply never slumped for more than a game or two. The Cubs are one of two teams not to have been swept in a series of three games or more, and it’s not because of their pitching staff but because they have the ability to score in so many ways. They rank second in slugging and third in stolen bases, which means almost every position in the order can either hit the ball out of the park or steal a base — or, in the cases of Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker, do both. A top-ranked defense also has helped them secure first place in the NL Central, as has a revamped bullpen led by young closer Daniel Palencia.

What to expect from here: The Cubs should keep scoring enough in the second half to lead them to their first postseason appearance since 2020. The front office is likely to be very active before the trade deadline as well, looking to add a starter, a reliever and perhaps help at third base. The Cubs won’t be the favorites in a series against the Phillies or Dodgers but have proved to be as dangerous as anyone in the NL. — Rogers


Record: 56-40 | Projected final record: 93-69

Division title odds: 81.2% | Playoff odds: 96.4% | Championship odds: 9.2%

How they got to the top: Getting to the top is standard in Houston. The Astros should make it nine consecutive seasons qualifying for the playoffs, perhaps reaching the ALCS for the fifth time in that span. However, looking closer at this year’s team in particular, this AL West run may be the most surprising, as Kyle Tucker is a Cub, second baseman Jose Altuve is a left fielder and Yordan Alvarez is sidelined. The DH has hit .210 in 29 games, succumbing to a hand injury since the first game of May. The confident Astros remain a top-five team because of their top-five ERA, led by right-hander Hunter Brown, left-hander Framber Valdez and arguably the league’s best bullpen. New leadoff option Jeremy Pena posting a top-five WAR has been critical, too.

What to expect from here: More winning. The Astros are used to this contending thing, even as some (many) of the names change. Twelve games remain versus the eager Mariners and hopeful Rangers, but it is hard to bet against the Astros winning the AL West for the fifth consecutive year. Reintegrating the excellent Alvarez, whose streak of earning MVP votes for three consecutive seasons figures to end this fall, is key to the lineup, which has lacked depth and pop with catcher Yainer Diaz and newcomer first baseman Christian Walker underachieving. The rotation needs stability after the stars, and perhaps right-handers Lance McCullers Jr., Spencer Arrighetti and Luis Garcia can provide it. Expect the Astros to play October baseball. — Karabell


Record: 55-41 | Projected final record: 93-69

Division title odds: 66.7% | Playoff odds: 93.3% | Championship odds: 7.9%

How they got to the top: The Phillies’ starting staff has been magnificent, boasting the lowest ERA in the game. It begins with Zack Wheeler but it hardly ends there. Cristopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez have been every bit as good, and while Jesus Luzardo has slowed down a little, he helped Philadelphia win early on while Suarez was out with an injury and Aaron Nola was struggling. Even Taijuan Walker has contributed after some struggles a year ago. Make no mistake, even with a star-laden lineup, the Phillies have been led by their rotation.

What to expect from here: Philadelphia isn’t playing for March-September glory. It’s all about October, which means staying healthy will be No.1 on the to-do list the rest of the way. But don’t expect president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski to simply rely on his veteran group without augmenting the roster before the trade deadline. As good as the Phillies have been in the rotation, they’ve had bullpen issues, ranking 23rd in ERA. Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering have been solid, but newcomer Jordan Romano ‘s 1.50 WHIP is problematic. Expect an addition there but mostly expect the Phillies to play their best baseball down the stretch. This is an all-in year for them. — Rogers


Record: 55-42 | Projected final record: 90-72

Division title odds: 33.2% | Playoff odds: 80.1% | Championship odds: 4.2%

How they got to the top: It’s been a tale of three chapters for the 2025 Mets. During the first, from Opening Day through June 12, they produced the best record in baseball behind the best pitching staff in baseball. The second, through the end of June, saw them post the worst record in the majors due to the same staff falling apart. In the third, a 12-day sample leading into the All-Star break, the Mets rebounded to go 7-5. New York cannot expect the pitching staff to rediscover its early magic. Injuries have depleted the rotation, placing the onus on a bullpen that was throwing on fumes. The break came at an opportune time.

What to expect from here: Teams like equating players coming off the injured list in July to trade deadline acquisitions. In the Mets’ case, they received two when Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea were both activated in the club’s final series before the break. The additions are significant. Senga and Manaea were the team’s projected top two starters entering spring training. They help offset the recent losses of Griffin Canning, Tylor Megill and Paul Blackburn. The bullpen, however, remains an area to address before the July 31 deadline.

Offensively, Juan Soto’s elite production since the start of June — he was named the NL Player of the Month for June — after a sluggish two-month start to his Mets career has changed the lineup’s complexion. With Soto, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo, who has also been one of baseball’s hottest hitters since June 1, the top of the Mets’ lineup is one of the best in the majors. — Castillo


TIER 2: ESTABLISHED CONTENDERS

Record: 53-43 | Projected final record: 92-70

Division title odds: 58.7% | Playoff odds: 93.3% | Championship odds: 13.0%

How they make the jump to the top tier: Yankees general manager Brian Cashman recently made it clear: He believes the roster could use upgrades in the starting rotation, bullpen and infield (specifically third base). So expect the Yankees to address those areas before the July 31 trade deadline, with pitching help taking priority after starter Clarke Schmidt was lost for the season to Tommy John surgery this month. Besides acquisitions, the Yankees need Aaron Judge to continue producing at an MVP level, the boppers around him to consistently contribute, and shortstop Anthony Volpe to reverse a slide that has seeped into his defense.

What to expect from here: Luis Gil‘s return to the rotation from a lat injury that has sidelined him all season — the Yankees are targeting late July or early August — will be welcomed, and prospect Cam Schlittler‘s recent major league debut was promising, but Cashman believes he needs another starter. His analysis of his roster means he’ll be busy in the next two weeks. To bolster the team, he’ll need to relinquish talent. The names moved could include top prospect Spencer Jones, a towering slugger who has torn up Triple-A since getting promoted last month. If the right players are acquired, the Yankees could capitalize on another MVP year from Judge, win the AL East for the third time in four seasons and return to the World Series. — Castillo


Record: 56-40 | Projected final record: 91-71

Division title odds: 18.8% | Playoff odds: 86.8% | Championship odds: 5.4%

How they make the jump to the top tier: At this point, does anybody remember that the Brewers started the season 0-4 while getting outscored 47-15? It took a while for them to find their footing, but Milwaukee is right back where it has been for most of the past decade. This time, the Brewers are doing it with a surfeit of productive young talent. They lead the majors in WAR (per a FanGraphs/Baseball Reference consensus) from rookies. With so many young players on the rise, it’s not clear that the National League’s hottest team entering the break needs to do any more than stay the course.

What to expect from here: This might be the best version of the Brewers that we’ve seen during this current long run of success. The offense is athletic and better balanced than the homer/strikeout-heavy attacks of recent vintage. The team defense is top five in baseball. The rotation is dynamic and deep; if anyone goes down, the Brewers have Logan Henderson and Chad Patrick at Triple-A. Finding quality relievers is never a problem for Milwaukee. This team is for real, and the NL Central race is going to be a doozy. — Doolittle


Record: 55-41 | Projected final record: 89-73

Division title odds: 23.7% | Playoff odds: 77.5% | Championship odds: 3.0%

How they make the jump to the top tier: Keep playing like they have since June 26. The Blue Jays went 12-4 heading into the All-Star break, including an impressive four-game sweep at home over the Yankees that vaulted Toronto into first place. The key has been an offense that averaged 5.6 runs in that stretch and lifted the Jays’ team average to .258, tied with the Astros and Rays for best in the majors. The Jays have been outhomered 126 to 101, so they will need to rely on hitting for average to produce runs — although if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. gets hot and George Springer and Addison Barger keep slugging, maybe they’ll hit for both average and power the rest of the way.

What to expect from here: The Blue Jays are 17-12 in one-run games and 7-3 in extra-inning games, so they’ve excelled in close games even though closer Jeff Hoffman has allowed nine home runs. Brendon Little, Braydon Fisher and Yariel Rodriguez have helped stabilize the rest of the bullpen, however, providing a big improvement over what was a major weak spot last season. It’s hard to completely buy into the Blue Jays since they are 14 games over .500 with just a plus-17 run differential, but that run differential is plus-51 since the beginning of May, and that feels more like a legitimate contender. At this point, they certainly feel like a playoff team, especially if that bullpen trio keeps performing well. — Schoenfield


TIER 3: FIRMLY IN THE MIX

Record: 51-45 | Projected final record: 87-75

Division title odds: 16.4% | Playoff odds: 68.8% | Championship odds: 2.8%

What makes them a potential contender: Umm, presumably you are aware of what Cal Raleigh is doing? The catcher leads the majors with 38 home runs and 82 RBIs, putting him on pace for 64 home runs and 138 RBIs, which would break Judge’s AL record of 62 home runs and be the third-highest RBI total ever for a catcher. With Raleigh leading the way, the Mariners’ offense has surprisingly been pretty good — at least on the road, where they are tied with the Yankees for the highest OPS and have the highest batting average at .270.

But what the Mariners are hoping for are better results from the supposed strength of the team, the starting rotation. George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller have all spent time on the IL, and the Mariners rank just 13th in rotation ERA, after ranking first in 2024. If the rotation steps up in the second half, don’t be surprised if the Mariners run down the Astros in the AL West.

What to expect from here: The Mariners have to expect Raleigh to cool down. Julio Rodriguez went 6-for-12 and homered in three straight games right before the break when the Mariners swept the Tigers, so maybe he’ll finally get going after scuffling all season. They have a couple of lineup positions they could upgrade, especially third base, and maybe they’ll look to add another starting pitcher depending on Miller’s health outlook. With a loaded farm system, the Mariners are well equipped to make a big move at the trade deadline and go after their first division title since 2001. — Schoenfield


Record: 53-45 | Projected final record: 86-76

Division title odds: 10.1% | Playoff odds: 57.3% | Championship odds: 2.0%

What makes them a potential contender: Usually a club trading its best hitter triggers a regression, but the Red Sox have been an outlier after sending Rafael Devers to San Francisco. That’s largely because their young stable of hitters, starting with Ceddanne Rafaela, has filled the void. The 24-year-old Rafaela’s emergence has been astonishing. He entered May 27 batting .220 with a .602 OPS. With Boston’s outfield surplus, his days as the starting center fielder were seemingly numbered. Since then, he has hit .329 with 12 home runs and a 1.017 OPS in 41 games.

Expecting Rafaela to continue the MVP-level production is probably unreasonable, but All-Star Alex Bregman‘s recent return after a seven-week absence plus Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer settling in as big leaguers should make Boston’s lineup dangerous even without Devers.

What to expect from here: Add the Red Sox to the list of contenders seeking pitching help before the deadline — both in the bullpen and rotation. Acquiring a starter and a reliever or two could vault the Red Sox to the top of the AL East and legitimate World Series contender status. If they don’t upgrade sufficiently, they’ll need the offense to continue propelling the club for a shot to play in October, likely as a wild-card team. — Castillo


Record: 50-47 | Projected final record: 85-77

Division title odds: 7.6% | Playoff odds: 51.5% | Championship odds: 2.0%

What makes them a potential contender: Kevin Cash, two-time AL Manager of the Year (2020 and ’21), has again played a huge part. Time and again, he extracts unexpectedly great things from his players, from Home Run Derby runner-up Junior Caminero to team WAR leader and All-Star Jonathan Aranda to captivating comeback story Drew Rasmussen. From May 9 through June 28, the Rays’ .674 winning percentage was the best in baseball, moving them within a half-game of the AL East lead.

Rasmussen has played a big part in a durable, dependable rotation, as the Rays stunningly rank second in innings pitched from starters (540⅔), after having never ranked higher than 23rd in the category over the past seven seasons. They’re also second in quality starts (47) and WHIP (1.15) and eighth in ERA (3.71), and they’ll get a big reinforcement in Shane McClanahan in a couple of weeks.

What to expect from here: The Rays did all this despite adapting to an unfamiliar home environment, the much more hitter-friendly George M. Steinbrenner Field, but to compensate for them playing 53 of 97 games there during the first half, they’ll now play 37 of 65 on the road to close out the season. Don’t underestimate the home-field advantage that Tropicana Field has given the Rays, whose .635 home winning percentage in August/September since 2021 is third best in baseball. How Cash navigates his team through its five remaining road trips might ultimately determine the Rays’ fate, especially in light of the disappointing 2-8 trip they endured to conclude the first half. — Cockcroft


Record: 52-44 | Projected final record: 87-75

Division title odds: 4.4% | Playoff odds: 48.6% | Championship odds: 1.5%

What makes them a potential contender: For all their injuries and underperformers, the Padres entered the All-Star break holding the third NL wild-card spot, and were 5½ games back of the Dodgers in the NL West. Jackson Merrill‘s production has dipped and he has made two trips to the IL, Opening Day starter Michael King has been sidelined since mid-May, and Dylan Cease‘s 4.88 ERA is a career worst. But the Padres at least win the games they’re supposed to, going 31-18 at home and 18-4 against the bottom five teams in baseball in terms of winning percentage. They also sport one of the league’s best and deepest bullpens.

What to expect from here: General manager A.J. Preller is one of the game’s most aggressive at his craft, and how he bolsters via trade an offense that ranks in the bottom eight in runs per game, wOBA and home runs will play a big part in the Padres’ postseason fate. Getting back a healthy King and getting Cease and recently activated Yu Darvish on track before the toughest and most critical intradivisional portion of their schedule in mid-August will also prove important. — Cockcroft


Record: 52-45 | Projected final record: 86-76

Division title odds: 3.6% | Playoff odds: 44.3% | Championship odds: 1.3%

What makes them a potential contender: Their pitching. The Giants entered the All-Star break with the best bullpen ERA in the majors, with the back-end trio of Tyler Rogers, Randy Rodriguez and Camilo Doval being especially dominant. Logan Webb and Robbie Ray, meanwhile, had combined to post a 2.80 ERA in 40 starts, forming one of the best rotation duos in the sport. New Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey wanted to build teams that hung their hat on pitching and defense, a nod to the World Series champions he was part of but also a reaction to how difficult it is to hit at Oracle Park. He’s 1-for-2 so far. The 2025 Giants have graded out poorly on defense, but their pitching has kept them relevant.

What to expect from here: The Giants already made their big move ahead of the trade deadline, acquiring Rafael Devers and his massive contract from the Boston Red Sox. Devers, one of the game’s best hitters, was brought in to change the dynamic of a mediocre Giants offense, but that has yet to happen. The three-time All-Star and two-time Silver Slugger has slashed just .202/.330/.326 over his first 25 games with San Francisco. At some point, though, he will get going again. And when he does, perhaps the Giants’ offense — a strong one if Heliot Ramos, Willy Adames, Matt Chapman and Jung Hoo Lee can also get right — will finally support the Giants’ pitching. — Gonzalez


Record: 51-46 | Projected final record: 84-78

Division title odds: 1.5% | Playoff odds: 27.9% | Championship odds: 0.7%

What makes them a potential contender: The Cardinals don’t do anything spectacular but they also don’t have a glaring weakness. It’s been a steady ship since some early-season struggles that almost doomed them in the playoff race. On May 1 they were four games under .500, but by June 1 they were seven over. That steady climb has characterized their first half. Perhaps the best example of their plight is the fact that they had just one All-Star, infielder Brendan Donovan, who might have made it due to every team needing a representative as much as anything else. That’s not to take away from St. Louis. It’s a compliment to them on a good half without star-level performances. Sonny Gray has been good. So has Alec Burleson. But the Cardinals narrative this season is about team over individual.

What to expect from here: The next two weeks feel critical for the Cardinals, but they might have already played their way into staying together and competing for a playoff berth. Besides, the same guys that turned down trades in the winter because of their no-trade clauses are likely to do it again later this month. The players believe in their team. Now it’s up to management to do the same — especially in top decision-maker John Mozeliak’s final season.

The biggest question might involve closer and free agent-to-be Ryan Helsley. Sure, he’s not having the same season he did a year ago, but what if Mozeliak gets an offer he can’t refuse? It’s not impossible to do a little adding and subtracting at the deadline and still compete. St. Louis could use another starter, as Erick Fedde has struggled mightily. Meanwhile, righty Michael McGreevy should find his way back into the rotation as well. — Rogers


TIER 4: PLAYING THEIR WAY OUT OF CONTENTION

Record: 48-49 | Projected final record: 82-80

Division title odds: 2.3% | Playoff odds: 21.8% | Championship odds: 0.8%

Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: No offense, Rangers fans, but this is not the offensive output of a contending team. The 2023 World Series champions averaged 5.4 runs per game and mashed 233 home runs, each figure third in the sport. This season’s bunch is even more disappointing than last year’s, 24th in runs and barely at 100 home runs at the break. Holdovers Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia and Josh Jung (demoted to the minors) have disappointed, and newcomers Joc Pederson and Jake Burger (demoted to the minors but back with the club) have really disappointed.

Beleaguered manager Bruce Bochy, with few options, has been alternating underwhelming offensive catchers Jonah Heim and Kyle Higashioka as his regular DH. The league’s best pitching (3.28 ERA) keeps the club in the mix, but Corey Seager not only must stay healthy, and he needs more help.

What to expect from here: It’s a small sample, but the Rangers boast the No. 5 wOBA in July (12 games), as Semien and Garcia look rejuvenated, and Wyatt Langford (.954 OPS in July) solidifies a run-producing spot. Burger and Jung should improve their numbers. The Rangers may not match their first-half pitching performance, but they figure to hit better than .229 in home games the final two months. Well, they better do that, or amazing RHP Jacob deGrom, making his most starts since the 2019 campaign, will be watching October baseball for the ninth season out of the past 10. — Karabell


Record: 47-49 | Projected final record: 81-81

Division title odds: 0.9% | Playoff odds: 17.0% | Championship odds: 0.4%

Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: The offense is averaging just 4.19 runs per game, a significant drop from last season’s 4.58 and way down from the 4.80 the Twins averaged in 2023 when they won the AL Central. It’s the lowest output for the Twins since 2013, and two of the major culprits are supposed to be two of their best players: Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis. Correa has been healthy, but is posting career lows in OBP, slugging and OPS. Lewis has once again battled injuries, but even when he has played, he has hit just .216/.281/.302 with two home runs in 42 games.

What to expect from here: Amazingly, the Twins had a 13-game winning streak in May and still entered the All-Star break with a losing record, which shows how poorly they played aside from that stretch. The Twins haven’t played well on the road, going 19-29, and 12 of their first 18 games coming out of the break will be on the road, including series against the Dodgers and Tigers. Those 18 games will tell us whether the Twins can get closer in the wild-card race. If they do find a way to reach the postseason, they could be a sleeper with one of the best bullpens in the majors, but right now it feels like they lack the consistency to get there. — Schoenfield


Record: 50-47 | Projected final record: 82-80

Division title odds: 0.4% | Playoff odds: 10.9% | Championship odds: 0.2%

Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: The Reds’ rotation has been excellent, even with ace Hunter Greene missing time. That group is also Cincinnati’s best hope for crawling back into the wild-card picture. But the Reds haven’t played well against teams in the top couple of tiers of the majors, and by quality of opponent, Cincinnati has arguably the toughest remaining schedule of any team in baseball. The Reds have played solid ball but need to be a lot better than that over the second half.

What to expect from here: Greene should return and, given the strength and depth of the rotation, the Reds aren’t likely to collapse. But an uneven offense that doesn’t have enough middle-of-the-order power isn’t likely to fuel a sustained run, either. The Reds are middling, in other words, which could have worked in some versions of the NL Central, but not the one that has emerged in 2025. — Doolittle


Record: 47-50 | Projected final record: 80-82

Division title odds: 0.3% | Playoff odds: 8.3% | Championship odds: 0.2%

Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: Injuries, injuries and more injuries. On the position player side, catcher Gabriel Moreno, infielder Ildemaro Vargas and first baseman/outfielder Pavin Smith have resided on the IL since mid-June. In the bullpen, standouts Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk underwent Tommy John surgery last month; veteran Shelby Miller landed on the IL with a strained forearm July 5 to interrupt a dominant season with a 1.98 ERA; sidearmer Ryan Thompson is out with a shoulder injury; and left-hander Jalen Beeks is on the IL with back inflammation. In the rotation, Corbin Burnes underwent Tommy John surgery last month after signing the largest contract in franchise history over the offseason.

Then there are the significant players who missed time earlier in the season. All-Stars Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll were sidelined for weeks. So were veteran starter Eduardo Rodriguez and reliever Kevin Ginkel. In short, it’s been a terribly unlucky season for a club that had World Series hopes.

What to expect from here: At this point, every contender is praying for the Diamondbacks’ downfall over the next two weeks. Arizona becoming an aggressive seller would dramatically change the trade market, infusing it with talent that would create bidding wars and produce huge hauls to brighten the organization’s future. At 47-50 and 5½ games from a postseason spot, it’ll take a heater in the 12 games before the deadline for the Diamondbacks to stand pat. That probably isn’t happening. — Castillo


Record: 47-50 | Projected final record: 79-83

Division title odds: 0.3% | Playoff odds: 7.7% | Championship odds: 0.1%

Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: The offense, and only the offense. The Royals are playoff caliber in every other phase of the game. The MLB median for runs in a game is four. Using that as a standard, let’s give a win to an offense that beats four in any given game, a tie if it matches that and a loss if it falls short. By that methodology, the Royals’ offense went 21-59-17 (.304) during the first half. Only the Rockies were worse, and just barely. Kansas City can win with average offense but there’s nothing we’ve seen from the Royals to suggest their attack can reach and stay at even that modest level.

What to expect from here: Everything teeters on the trade deadline. Can the Royals add at least one, and preferably two, impact bats, and do so without undermining the team defense that remains the club’s backbone? It’s a really tall order and the Royals don’t have the kind of minor league depth or payroll flexibility to fill it. It’s also not clear if this year’s team is worthy of that kind of aggression in the first place. Coming out of the break, the Royals have to go on a tear, or they’ll be looking ahead to 2026 and beyond. — Doolittle


Record: 46-49 | Projected final record: 78-84

Division title odds: 0.3% | Playoff odds: 6.3% | Championship odds: 0.1%

Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: Offense. The Guardians are 26th in the majors in runs per game, averaging just 3.72. They’re hitting just .222 overall and, unlike last season when they produced a lot of clutch hitting with runners on base, just .221 with men on. During a 10-game losing streak in late June and early July, they were shut out five times, which feels like an impossible feat even in the dead ball era (and we’re not in the dead ball era). It’s not a surprise to learn that the Guardians have the lowest hardest-hit percentage (balls hit at 95 mph or harder) in the majors.

What to expect from here: The Guardians did bounce back from that 10-game losing streak with six wins in their final seven games before the break. They get the Athletics, Orioles, Royals, Rockies and Twins coming out of the break — five consecutive series against teams currently with losing records — so if they dominate that stretch, they’ll be right back in the thick of the wild-card race.

Still, it’s hard to envision this light-hitting team reaching the postseason, especially since the bullpen hasn’t been as dominant as last season and the rotation is a mediocre 17th in ERA. Indeed, unless the Guardians come out of the break scorching hot, you have to wonder if the front office will make a reliever or two available at the trade deadline. — Schoenfield


Record: 47-49 | Projected final record: 76-86

Division title odds: 0.2% | Playoff odds: 2.4% | Championship odds: 0.0%

Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: Simply put, talent. The Angels went into the All-Star break only two games below .500 despite a minus-62 run differential, outperforming their Pythagorean record by five games. Depth of the 40-man roster is traditionally their biggest weakness, but it hasn’t really been tested. None of their starting pitchers have suffered injuries. Their overall roster has been relatively healthy. In many ways, they have had as good a fortune as one can reasonably hope for through the season’s first three-plus months.

They’ve also shown some promise. Their pitching has taken a big step forward, with Jose Soriano and Reid Detmers in particular showing flashes of success. And their lineup has shown some real potential, even though Mike Trout — with favorable underlying numbers — has yet to really get going.

What to expect from here: It’s been 10 years since the Angels were even relevant for the stretch run of a season. That’s the goal: to stay in it. And if they continue to do that over these next few weeks, it will be really hard to see owner Arte Moreno, the same man who did not trade Shohei Ohtani in the lead-up to his free agency, trigger anything resembling a teardown. The Angels have several intriguing pending free agents, namely Tyler Anderson, Kenley Jansen, Luis Rengifo and Yoan Moncada. They might add. They might add and subtract simultaneously, swapping expiring contracts for controllable players who can help in the immediate or close-to-immediate future. But they probably won’t punt on 2025 if they can help it. — Gonzalez


TIER 5: THE DISAPPOINTMENTS

Record: 42-53 | Projected final record: 77-85

Division title odds: 0.1% | Playoff odds: 2.1% | Championship odds: 0.1%

How they got here: Injuries, a key suspension and an 0-7 start have buried this team, which is in danger of missing the playoffs for the first season since 2017, Brian Snitker’s first full year as manager. Everyone knew it would take time for Ronald Acuna Jr. (knee) and Spencer Strider (elbow) to recover, and they debuted well into the season. But the Braves hardly counted on losing their prime free agent signing in Jurickson Profar to an 80-game suspension, and most of the rest of the rotation as well, as Reynaldo Lopez (shoulder), Chris Sale (ribs) and breakout Spencer Schwellenbach (elbow) may not return this September. That might depend on the state of the team, and currently things are not looking good.

What to expect from here: GM Alex Anthopoulos is no newcomer to the trade deadline scene, and if the club cannot get closer than its current 9.5 games away from an NL wild-card spot in two weeks, he may have no choice but to trade veterans. Who goes? Perhaps Marcell Ozuna, his slugging percentage down from .546 to .396, is first. Embattled closer Raisel Iglesias, with his bloated 4.42 ERA, would seem an obvious choice. Rejuvenated Sean Murphy is a possibility with rookie Drake Baldwin emerging. Even the sputtering Michael Harris II, last among 158 qualifiers with a .551 OPS, could use a new start. Regardless of who moves on, this is far from what Braves fans expected in March, but don’t be surprised if the franchise keeps enough talent to contend again in 2026. — Karabell


Record: 43-52 | Projected final record: 73-89

Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.5% | Championship odds: 0.0%

How they got here: The Orioles stumbled out of the gate, with a 12-18 record at the end of April, including losses of 24-2 and 15-3. Then the season really fell apart with a 3-16 stretch in May — against a relatively soft part of the schedule. Manager Brandon Hyde got the ax and fans rightly pounced on GM Mike Elias and new owner David Rubenstein for failing to address the rotation in the offseason with somebody other than 41-year-old Charlie Morton and 35-year-old Tomoyuki Sugano.

Still, if the offense had lived up to preseason expectations, the Orioles might be in the playoff race. Instead, the offense has declined from one of the best in the majors (4.85 runs per game) to below average (4.14 runs per game). They’ve lost nearly 50 points of OPS despite moving in the left-field fence at Camden Yards by varying distances of 9 to 20 feet. Yes, the rotation is the major culprit here, ranking next to last in ERA, but it’s been a teamwide collapse.

What to expect from here: With up to 12 potential free agents, the Orioles are likely to be the busiest team at the trade deadline. Some of the key players who could be traded include Ryan O’Hearn, Cedric Mullins, Ramon Laureano, Zach Eflin and even Morton, who has pitched better after a horrid start (2.76 ERA over his past eight starts). O’Hearn will have a lot of interest, but the other big name that teams may be asking about is closer Felix Bautista. He’s back from Tommy John surgery throwing gas, has a low salary ($1 million) and is under team control through 2027. That means the Orioles are likely to keep him, but given the list of contenders looking for late-game bullpen help, Bautista could bring back a big return. — Schoenfield


Record: 44-51 | Projected final record: 72-90

Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.2% | Championship odds: 0.0%

How they got here: Not much in South Florida has gone quite according to plan. Sandy Alcantara, the Marlins’ expected ace and premium midseason trade chip, ranks last among pitchers with minus-1.6 WAR. Xavier Edwards and Connor Norby haven’t progressed as smoothly as hoped. The rotation has struggled to consistently find options for the No. 4 and 5 slots, and the Marlins’ 5.02 first-half ERA was third worst in baseball. But, just as unexpected, the offense has shown a spark over the past month. Since June 9, only eight teams scored more runs, led by All-Star Kyle Stowers (.316/.404/.663 rates and nine home runs) and with solid production from Otto Lopez and rookie Agustin Ramirez.

What to expect from here: With the youngest roster in baseball, the Marlins will continue to feature their young stars. In addition to the names above, Eury Perez is quickly recapturing his pre-Tommy John surgery buzz as one of the game’s most promising starters. Alcantara’s trade value has plummeted, but he’ll still probably be moved for prospects, potentially along with Anthony Bender, Edward Cabrera or Jesus Sanchez. — Cockcroft


Record: 39-58 | Projected final record: 68-94

Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%

How they got here: It’s almost like adding little to an offense that had an 87 OPS+ (tied for 27th) in 2024 was a bad idea. This year, they’re at 79, in a three-way tie for last with the White Sox and Rockies. Consider that win-loss method using the median run total of four we cited in the Kansas City entry above, and reverse the standards to look at run prevention. The Pirates’ pitching and defense went 50-35-12 (.577) by that method, ranking 10th overall and sixth in the NL. That’s playoff-level run prevention. The sputtering offense renders that success irrelevant.

What to expect from here: Same old, same old for the Pirates. They’ll offload veterans at the deadline and play out the string, leaving their fans wondering what exactly, if anything, will ever change with this franchise. That assumes, of course, that rumblings about dangling Paul Skenes in a potential trade don’t resurface. If they do and, worse, such a trade comes to pass, the Pirates might not have any fans left. That aside, Bucs fans at least get Skenes every few days and get to watch Oneil Cruz run fast, throw hard and hit the ball far, all while hitting around .210. — Doolittle


Record: 41-57 | Projected final record: 67-95

Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%

How they got here: This dysfunctional franchise lost 93 games last season, its final ride in Oakland, so perhaps the word “here” has special meaning in this case, referring to the new, temporary (for three years?) home in West Sacramento. The Athletics — don’t call them Sacramento! — are second worst in MLB in run differential at minus-134, so they deserve their last-place designation, though things weren’t so bad early on. The Athletics were 20-16 a week into May before rough pitching spiraled them into losing 20 of 21 games. Not everything is bad. SS Jacob Wilson and 1B Nick Kurtz are among the leading contenders for AL Rookie of the Year honors, two-time All-Star OF Brent Rooker is on his way to a third consecutive 30-home run season, and RHP closer Mason Miller is back on track after a rough April. The future on the field looks relatively promising.

What to expect from here: RHP Luis Severino, signed to a multiyear contract in December, really does not enjoy pitching in Sacramento (6.68 ERA) and certainly has no issue telling everyone about it. His solid road numbers (3.04 ERA) should attract trade interest, perhaps back to one of his former New York-based clubs. It would be surprising if the Athletics parted with Miller. The Athletics are eminently watchable when they hit, though they remain below average in scoring runs. The pitching is the problem (5.20 ERA), and there is little help on the immediate horizon, so expect myriad high-scoring contests this summer, whether in Sacramento or elsewhere. — Karabell


Record: 38-58 | Projected final record: 65-97

Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%

How they got here: The Nationals’ first half was not entirely without positives, as James Wood (4.4) and MacKenzie Gore (3.6) have been top-10 performers in terms of WAR on their respective sides of the ball, but on the whole the Nats were plagued by poor process, pathetic ‘pen performance and puzzling news conferences. A 7-20 stretch between June 7 and July 6 culminated in the firings of general manager Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez, seven days ahead of the team possessing the No. 1 pick in the MLB draft. The team’s unexpected selection of Eli Willits was regarded as representative of the organization’s unclear direction.

What to expect from here: Continued focus on player development under Miguel Cairo, an interim manager for the second time in four seasons. The team can and should move impending free agents Kyle Finnegan, Michael Soroka and Amed Rosario, and it should aim to take another look at 2020 first-rounder Robert Hassell III, a .298/.404/.488 hitter since his mid-June demotion back to Triple-A Rochester. — Cockcroft


Record: 32-65 | Projected final record: 55-107

Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%

How they got here: If you like rookies making their MLB debuts, then the 2025 White Sox are for you. It’s brought energy to what was a funeral-like atmosphere just a season ago when the team lost a record 121 games. But with the energy of debuting 11 players comes some growing pains. That’s to be expected and hasn’t dampened the attitude inside the clubhouse.

Team success has been hard to find but individual moments still exist, beginning with Shane Smith, a Rule 5 pick this year, making the All-Star team. Then there is flamethrower Grant Taylor, who both opened a game and closed one in the same series against the Blue Jays. And their latest debut, shortstop Colson Montgomery, was banished to the team’s spring complex earlier this season only to find his way to the majors more recently. There are good storylines with the White Sox for the first time in a few years — just not many wins.

What to expect from here: Growth. And perhaps a few more wins as those rookies get more comfortable. The team will also be active later this month with newcomer Adrian Houser opening eyes around the league. The biggest question surrounds outfielder Luis Robert Jr., who hasn’t hit a lick this season. Will a team take a chance in trading for him? Will GM Chris Getz hold out for a decent prospect or just get Robert off the books — and off the team — as the White Sox’s makeover continues? — Rogers


TIER 6: ROCK BOTTOM

Record: 22-74 | Projected final record: 41-121

Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%

Where it all went wrong: Everywhere. It goes all the way back to the beginning, with the circumstances of playing baseball at mile-high altitude, and encompasses the franchise’s entire history, which is marked by an insular approach that has sapped innovation for a team that desperately needs it. But let’s keep the focus on this year. The Rockies went into the All-Star break with a major-league-high 5.56 ERA, a 27th-ranked .668 OPS and minus-19 outs above average, third worst in the sport. In other words, they have been dreadful on the mound, in the batter’s box and on defense. It really is that simple.

What to expect from here: The question everyone seems to have about the Rockies is whether they will actually make drastic changes. The first hints will come before the end of the month, when we find out if they diverge from prior strategy and trade away key veteran players — most notably German Marquez and Ryan McMahon — ahead of the trade deadline. Perhaps at some point thereafter, we’ll find out if owner Dick Monfort finally opts for a new direction in baseball operations. Bill Schmidt is in his fourth year as general manager and, barring a miracle, will oversee his third consecutive 100-plus-loss season. He has been with the organization since 1999. — Gonzalez

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If college football’s playoff system ain’t broke, why fix it?

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If college football's playoff system ain't broke, why fix it?

During college football’s Bowl Championship Series era, the sport’s opposition to an expanded, let alone expansive, playoff could be summarized in one colorful quote by then-Ohio State president E. Gordon Gee.

“They will wrench a playoff system out of my cold, dead hands,” Gee said in 2007.

We are happy to report that while college football does, indeed, have a playoff, Gee is still very much alive. The 81-year-old retired just this week after a second stint leading West Virginia University.

What is dead and buried, though, is college football’s staunch resistance to extending its postseason field. After decades of ignoring complaints and the promise of additional revenue to claim that just two teams was more than enough, plans to move from 12 participants to 16 were underway before last season’s inaugural 12-teamer even took place.

A once-static sport now moves at light speed, future implications be damned.

Fire. Ready. Aim.

So maybe the best bit of current news is that college football’s two ruling parties — the SEC and Big Ten — can’t agree on how the new 16-team field would be selected. It has led to a pause on playoff expansion.

Maybe, just maybe, it means no expansion will occur by 2026, as first planned, and college football can let the 12-team model cook a little to accurately assess what changes — if any — are even needed.

“We have a 12-team playoff, five conference champions,” SEC commissioner Greg Sankey said this week. “That could stay if we can’t agree.”

Good. After all, what’s the rush?

The 2025 season will play out with a 12-team format featuring automatic bids for five conference champions and seven at-large spots. Gone is last year’s clunky requirement that the top four seeds could go only to conference champs — elevating Boise State and Arizona State and unbalancing the field.

That alone was progress built on real-world experience. It should be instructive.

The SEC wants a 16-team model but with, as is currently the case, automatic bids going to the champions in the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC and the best of the so-called Group of 6. The rest of the field would be at-large selections.

The Big Ten says it will not back such a proposal until the SEC agrees to play nine conference games (up from its current eight). Instead, it wants a 16-team system that gives four automatic bids apiece to the Big Ten and SEC, two each to the ACC and Big 12, one to the Group of 6 and then three at-large spots.

It’s been dubbed the “4-4-2-2-1-3” because college athletic leaders love ridiculous parlances almost as much as they love money.

While the ACC, Big 12 and others have offered opinions — mostly siding with the SEC — legislatively, the decision rests with the sport’s two big-dog conferences.

Right now, neither side is budging. A compromise might still be made, of course. The supposed deadline to set the 2026 system is Nov. 30. And Sankey actually says he prefers the nine-game SEC schedule, even if his coaches oppose it.

However, the possibility of the status quo standing for a bit longer remains.

What the Big Ten has proposed is a dramatic shift for a sport that has been bombarded with dramatic shifts — conference realignment, the transfer portal, NIL, revenue sharing, etc.

The league wants to stage multiple “play-in” games on conference championship weekend. The top two teams in the league would meet for the league title (as is currently the case), but the third- and fourth-place teams would play the fifth- and sixth-place teams to determine the other automatic bids.

Extend this out among all the conferences and you have up to a 26-team College Football Playoff (with 22 teams in a play-in situation). This would dramatically change the way the sport works — devaluing the stakes for nonconference games, for example. And some mediocre teams would essentially get a playoff bid — in the Big Ten’s case, the sixth seed last year was an Iowa team that finished 8-5.

Each conference would have more high-value inventory to sell to broadcast partners, but it’s not some enormous windfall. Likewise, four more first-round playoff games would need to find television slots and relevance.

Is anyone sure this is necessary? Do we need 16 at all, let alone with multibids?

In the 12-team format, the first round wasn’t particularly competitive — with a 19.3-point average margin of victory. It’s much like the first round of the NFL playoffs, designed mostly to make sure no true contender is left out.

Perhaps last year was an outlier. And maybe future games will be close. Or maybe they’ll be even more lopsided. Wouldn’t it be prudent to find out?

While there were complaints about the selection committee picking SMU and/or Indiana over Alabama, it wasn’t some egregious slight. Arguments will happen no matter how big the field. Besides, the Crimson Tide lost to two 6-6 teams last year. Expansion means a team with a similar résumé can cruise in.

Is that a good thing?

Whatever the decision, it is being made with little to no real-world data — pro or con. Letting a few 12-team fields play out, providing context and potentially unexpected consequences, sure wouldn’t hurt.

You don’t have to be Gordon Gee circa 2007 to favor letting this simmer and be studied before leaping toward another round of expansion.

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Arch to victory? Texas preseason pick to win SEC

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Arch to victory? Texas preseason pick to win SEC

Texas, with Heisman Trophy candidate Arch Manning set to take over as starting quarterback, is the preseason pick to win the Southeastern Conference championship.

The Longhorns received 96 of the 204 votes cast from media members covering the SEC media days this week to be crowned SEC champion on Dec. 6 in Atlanta at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Georgia, with 44 votes, received the second-most votes.

If that scenario plays out, it would mean a rematch of the 2024 SEC championship game, which Georgia won in an overtime thriller. The SEC championship game pits the two teams with the best regular-season conference record against one another.

Alabama was third with 29 votes, while LSU got 20. South Carolina was next with five, while Oklahoma received three and Vanderbilt and Florida each got two votes. Tennessee, Ole Miss and Auburn each received one vote.

Since 1992, only 10 times has the predicted champion in the preseason poll gone on to win the SEC championship.

The 2024 SEC title game averaged 16.6 million viewers across ABC and ESPN, the fourth-largest audience on record for the game. The overtime win for Georgia, which peaked with 19.7 million viewers, delivered the largest audience of the college football season.

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