Sources: Bogaerts, Padres agree to $280M deal
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Jeff PassanESPN
SAN DIEGO — Shortstop Xander Bogaerts and the Padres agreed to an 11-year, $280 million contract late Wednesday, sources confirmed to ESPN, a monumental move that brings the longtime Boston Red Sox luminary to a team already laden with star talent.
The stunning deal, consummated as an especially active winter meetings came to a close, adds Bogaerts to a Padres team that already includes Juan Soto, Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. Boston, meanwhile, was left lamenting the loss of a homegrown talent who made his major league debut at 20 years old and leaves at 30 after opting out of the final three years of his contract.
Bogaerts won a pair of World Series and made four All-Star teams, including in 2022, when he hit .307/.377/.456 with 15 home runs and 73 RBIs in 150 games. The expectation is he will remain at shortstop, with Ha-Seong Kim — who took over at the position in 2022 when Tatis was injured and suspended for a positive performance-enhancing-drug test — moving to second base, incumbent second baseman Jake Cronenworth sliding over to first, Tatis shifting to right field and Soto going to left field.
The deal, which runs through Bogaerts’ age-40 season, capped a winter meetings during which teams signed 18 players for nearly $1.6 billion, including the New York Yankees locking up outfielder Aaron Judge for $360 million, the Philadelphia Phillies signing shortstop Trea Turner for $300 million and the Red Sox spending more than $105 million, between his salary and the posting fee to his former team in Japan, to add outfielder Masataka Yoshida.
Bogaerts entered the winter as one of the prizes of a strong free agent class. After making runs at Turner and Judge, the Padres pivoted to Bogaerts, spooked neither by the cost to sign him nor the domino effect his arrival might cause.
With the deal, the Padres’ payroll spikes to more than $250 million, a staggering number for a team with the 27th-ranked media market in the country.
Boston, which typically has among the largest payrolls in the game, declined to play anywhere near the financial realm to which the Padres were willing to go. On a day in which the Red Sox agreed to a deal with Yoshida as well as a two-year, $32 million pact with closer Kenley Jansen, they found themselves without another high-profile, popular player two years after trading outfielder Mookie Betts to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The signs that Bogaerts could leave Boston had percolated after he rejected a contract extension earlier this year. The opt-out in Bogaerts’ six-year, $120 million contract extension hung over the Red Sox like the sword of Damocles, threatening to take away another core member of the team that won the World Series in 2018 and made the American League Championship Series in 2021 before falling to last place in the AL East this year.
As Boston faltered, the Padres ascended with a series of moves bolder than the last. First, they signed Machado to a 10-year, $300 million free agent contract before the 2019 season. Two years later, they gave Tatis a 14-year, $340 million extension. And at the trade deadline this year, they dealt five prospects for Soto, who turned down a $440 million contract extension offer from his previous team, the Washington Nationals, and can reach free agency after the 2024 season.
Without Tatis, the Padres won 89 games and secured a wild-card berth, finishing 22 games back of the first-place Dodgers in the National League West. San Diego beat the 101-win New York Mets in the wild-card series, ousted the Dodgers in the division series and dropped the NL Championship Series to the Phillies, who lost the World Series to the Houston Astros.
The Padres last made the World Series in 1998, getting swept by the Yankees, and have yet to win a championship since their inception in 1969. Now the only major men’s professional sports team in San Diego, the Padres have entranced the city, capping season-ticket sales and regularly filling Petco Park as they fell just shy of 3 million attendees, the fifth-highest number in baseball behind the Dodgers, St. Louis Cardinals, Yankees and Atlanta Braves.
The amount the Padres were willing to spend to sign Bogaerts nevertheless stunned the baseball industry. While Machado can opt out of his contract after the 2023 season and the Padres are slated to shed nearly $60 million in payroll beyond him with the impending free agencies of pitchers Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Josh Hader and Drew Pomeranz, the financial three-card monte in which they are engaging left rival executives questioning their long-term plan.
The Padres pay no mind to outside opinions. Moving Kim and his elite glovework at shortstop to second for Bogaerts, who scouts and defensive metrics agree is inferior defensively? No problem. Depleting their elite farm system for the final 2½ years of Soto’s club control? The price of building a championship-caliber team.
Bogaerts knows what World Series rings look like, nabbing a pair in his 10-year career, during which he has hit .292/.356/.458 with 156 home runs and 683 RBIs while playing at least 136 games in each of his eight full seasons. The ability to stay healthy proved a hallmark for Bogaerts, who signed with the Red Sox out of Aruba as a 16-year-old, rocketed to the major leagues and became a fixture in the lineup with a sweet right-handed swing oriented for contact and damage.
Now he will join an offense that, despite the star power, ranked 13th in the major leagues with 705 runs. The addition of Bogaerts and return of Tatis should supercharge it.
Boston, on the other hand, faces serious questions about its present and future.
The Red Sox could move second baseman Trevor Story to his natural position at shortstop, though the velocity on his throws, according to scouts, could hinder his effectiveness there a year after he signed a six-year, $140 million free agent deal. Boston also needs to figure out the future of star third baseman Rafael Devers, a 26-year-old who can hit free agency after the 2023 season and is expected to command over $300 million. The Red Sox and Devers remain far apart on extension talks, sources said.
MLB Network first reported the agreement between Bogaerts and the Padres.
The first 12-team College Football Playoff is down to the final two contenders: Notre Dame and Ohio State.
The seventh-seeded Fighting Irish and eighth-seeded Buckeyes will meet Jan. 20 at Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium for the CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T. Whichever team wins will end a championship drought. Notre Dame aims for its first title since 1988. Ohio State’s lull isn’t nearly as long, as the Buckeyes won the first CFP championship a decade ago, but given how consistently elite they are, it seems like a while.
Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman and Ohio State’s Ryan Day are also aiming for their first championships as head coaches, and Freeman’s past will be in the spotlight. Freeman and the Irish lost to the Buckeyes and Day in each of the past two seasons. But after a masterful coaching job this season, Freeman now will face his alma mater — he was an All-Big Ten linebacker for Ohio State under coach Jim Tressel — with everything on the line. Day, meanwhile, can secure the loftiest goal for a team that fell short of earlier ones, but never stopped swinging.
Here’s your first look at the championship matchup and what to expect in the ATL. — Adam Rittenberg
When: Jan. 20 at 7:30 p.m. ET. TV: ESPN
What we learned in the semifinal: Notre Dame’s resilience and situational awareness/execution are undeniably its signature traits and could propel the team to a title. The Irish have overcome injuries all season and did so again against Penn State. They also erased two deficits and continued to hold the edge in the “middle eight” — the final four minutes of the first half and the first four minutes of the second half — while dominating third down on both sides of the ball. Notre Dame can rely on front men such as quarterback Riley Leonard, running back Jeremiyah Love and linebacker Jack Kiser, but also on backup QB Steve Angeli, wide receiver Jaden Greathouse and kicker Mitch Jeter. These Irish fight, and they’re very hard to knock out.
X factor: Greathouse entered Thursday with moderate numbers — 29 receptions, 359 yards, one touchdown — and had only three total catches for 14 yards in the first two CFP games. But he recorded career highs in both receptions (7) and receiving yards (105) and tied the score on a 54-yard touchdown with 4:38 to play. A Notre Dame offense looking for more from its wide receivers, especially downfield, could lean more on Greathouse, who exceeded his receptions total from the previous five games but might be finding his groove at the perfect time. He also came up huge in the clutch, recording all but six of his receiving yards in the second half.
How Notre Dame wins: The Irish won’t have the talent edge in Atlanta, partly because they’ve lost several stars to season-ending injuries, but they have the right traits to hang with any opponent. Notre Dame needs contributions in all three phases and must continue to sprinkle in downfield passes, an element offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock has pushed. And they finally did start seeing results against Penn State. The Irish likely can’t afford to lose the turnover margin, although they can help themselves by replicating their third-down brilliance — 11 of 17 conversions on offense, 3 of 11 conversions allowed on defense — from the Penn State win. — Rittenberg
What we learned in the semifinal: The Buckeyes have a defense with championship mettle, headlined by senior defensive end Jack Sawyer, who delivered one of the biggest defensive plays in Ohio State history. On fourth-and-goal with just over two minutes remaining, Sawyer sacked Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers, forcing a fumble that he scooped up and raced 83 yards for a game-clinching touchdown, propelling Ohio State to the national title game. The Buckeyes weren’t perfect in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, and they struggled offensively for much of the night against a talented Texas defense. But Ohio State showed late why its defense is arguably the best in college football, too.
X factor: The play two snaps before the Sawyer scoop-and-score set the table. On second-and-goal from the Ohio State 1-yard line, unheralded senior safety Lathan Ransom dashed past incoming blockers and dropped Texas running back Quintrevion Wisner for a 7-yard loss. After an incomplete pass, the Longhorns were forced into desperation mode on fourth-and-goal down a touchdown with just over two minutes remaining. All-American safety Caleb Downs, who had an interception on Texas’ ensuing drive, rightfully gets all the headlines for the Ohio State secondary. But the Buckeyes have other veteran standouts such as Ransom throughout their defense.
How Ohio State wins: Texas took away Ohio State’s top offensive playmaker, true freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, who had only one reception for 3 yards on three targets. As the first two playoff games underscored, the Buckeyes offense is at its best when Smith gets the ball early and often. Notre Dame is sure to emulate the Texas blueprint, positioning the defensive backs to challenge Smith. Ohio State offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has to counter with a plan that finds ways to get the ball into Smith’s hands, no matter what the Fighting Irish do. — Jake Trotter
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Doug Greenberg, ESPN
Ohio State opened as a 9.5-point favorite over Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff National Championship Presented by AT&T, per ESPN BET odds.
If that line holds, it would be tied for the second-largest spread in a CFP national championship game and the fourth largest in the CFP/BCS era. Georgia was -13.5 against TCU in the 2022 national championship, while Alabama showed -9.5 against none other than Ohio State to decide the 2020 campaign. Both favorites covered the spread in blowout fashion, combining for a cover margin of 63.
Notre Dame is 12-3 against the spread this season, tied with Arizona State (12-2) and Marshall (12-1) for the most covers in the nation. The Irish are 7-0 ATS against ranked teams and 2-0 ATS as underdogs, with both covers going down as outright victories, including their win over Penn State (-1.5) in the CFP national semifinal.
However, Notre Dame was also on the losing end of the largest outright upset of the college football season when it fell as a 28.5-point favorite to Northern Illinois.
Ohio State is 9-6 against the spread and has been a favorite in every game it has played this season; it has covered the favorite spread in every CFP game thus far, including in its semifinal win against Texas when it covered -6 with overwhelming public support.
The Buckeyes also have been an extremely popular pick in the futures market all season. At BetMGM as of Friday morning, OSU had garnered a leading 28.2% of money and 16.8% of bets to win the national title, checking in as the sportsbook’s greatest liability.
Ohio State opened at +700 to win it all this season and is now -350 with just one game to play.
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