MLB Power Rankings: Which red-hot division dominates the top 10?
After playing a larger variety of teams in the first six weeks of the season thanks to the new schedule, the American League East has cemented itself as the most competitive division in baseball — and in our MLB Power Rankings.
All five clubs reside in the top 10, with the two most historically dominant AL East teams — the Yankees and Red Sox — bringing up the rear for the group. But it raises the question: Is this level of success sustainable?
Our expert panel has combined to rank every team in baseball based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield, Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers, Alden Gonzalez and Joon Lee to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.
Record: 29-9
Previous ranking: 1
The Rays keep rolling, going 9-4 since the team encountered a hiccup against the Astros, getting shut out in back-to-back games. Wander Franco continues to lead the offense, collecting 10 hits in 29 at-bats over the past week, including two homers. Franco could find himself in the MVP conversation if he continues this type of production, leading all position players with 2.5 Baseball-Reference WAR (bWAR). — Lee
Record: 25-12
Previous ranking: 2
Max Fried‘s forearm strain will require him to be shut down until he’s healed, which could be up to two months, but the Braves appear hopeful they caught the injury before something more severe develops. (A forearm strain is often a precursor to Tommy John surgery, which Fried had as a minor leaguer in 2014.) In more positive news, Sean Murphy and Ronald Acuna Jr. continue to rake and ranked first and fourth among position players in FanGraphs WAR (fWAR) through Tuesday. Murphy had a six-RBI game against the Mets on May 1, four RBIs against the Orioles on May 5 and four more against the Red Sox on Tuesday, pushing him into the National League lead with 32. He’d get my vote right now as NL MVP over Acuna. — Schoenfield
Record: 23-15
Previous ranking: 3
The Dodgers possess the depth to sustain most setbacks. But with Walker Buehler spending most — if not all — of the 2023 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, they needed one of their dynamic young starting pitchers to step up behind the established duo of Julio Urias and Clayton Kershaw. Enter Dustin May. Seven starts in, May boasts a 2.68 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP. His strikeout rate is only 18.4%, even though he consistently throws in the upper 90s, and his groundball rate is below average despite the presence of a devastating sinker. His exit data, meanwhile, is around league average. So how, exactly, is he doing this? Some of it might have been luck thus far, but May undoubtedly has the stuff to produce at this level moving forward. — Gonzalez
Record: 21-16
Previous ranking: 5
Toronto received a reminder of how deep the American League East is when it was swept by the Red Sox in a four-game series at Fenway Park, though the Jays rebounded by sweeping the Pirates. One major encouraging sign for this team: Outfielder Daulton Varsho had four multihit games during the past week, helping raise his average more than 40 points after a slow start to the season. Additionally, righty Chris Bassitt had his strongest start of the season, going seven innings and allowing no runs on four hits while striking out five and walking four against Pittsburgh. — Lee
Record: 22-14
Previous ranking: 8
It’s a different hero every week for the still-in-first place Rangers. This time it’s outfielder Leody Taveras, who delivered in a big way over a seven-day span ending Tuesday — going 11-for-23 (.478) during that time frame while getting on base well over 50% of the time. It’s been a different story for the Rangers on the mound, as closer Andrew Heaney gave up nine runs in 11⅓ innings over two starts. He’s been wildly unpredictable in his first year with the Rangers, giving up at least two earned runs in five of his seven starts for a 5.25 ERA on the season. Without Jacob deGrom, Texas will need more from its pitching staff. — Rogers
Record: 19-18
Previous ranking: 4
The Astros received some rough injury news last week when Luis Garcia was removed eight pitches into a start against the Giants because of what was later diagnosed as a torn ulnar collateral ligament (UCL). Garcia is now headed for Tommy John surgery and is done for the season. The Astros’ rotation was already without Jose Urquidy (shoulder) and Lance McCullers Jr. (elbow). So, the vaunted depth of the Astros’ pitching is very much being put to the test. J.P. France and Brandon Bielak both got starts over the past week. — Doolittle
Record: 24-13
Previous ranking: 9
The Orioles dropped two of three to the Braves but rebounded by grabbing a series win over the red-hot Rays. Outfielder Anthony Santander had a strong week, collecting 12 hits and hitting three home runs in 29 at-bats. While Baltimore looks like an exciting young team off to a hot start, there are areas to improve upon, with the pitching staff in the middle of the pack for team ERA so far this season. Reliever Yennier Cano leads the team’s pitchers in bWAR, suggesting there’s room for improvement among the starting rotation. — Lee
Record: 19-18
Previous ranking: 10
Manager Bob Melvin made a relatively drastic change to his lineup on Tuesday, moving Jake Cronenworth up into the No. 2 hole and sliding three of his superstars back a spot. It led to one of their most complete offensive showings of the young season, particularly with regard to Manny Machado and Juan Soto, who combined to reach base seven times. The Padres’ offense has been surprisingly inconsistent thus far, beginning this week ranked 23rd in runs per game. At some point, one would think, it will all click. And perhaps Tuesday was the start of that. “It’s just putting it all together,” Machado said after Tuesday’s win over the Twins. “If we can do that, we’re going to be the best team in baseball.” — Gonzalez
Record: 21-17
Previous ranking: 12
The Yankees got some relief from the injury bug ravaging the team, as slugger Aaron Judge returned to the lineup Tuesday after dealing with a hip ailment. They will need the help, as New York ranks 19th in the league in fWAR while sitting 23rd in batting average. There seems to be more injury relief on the horizon, with Luis Severino starting a rehab assignment and third baseman Josh Donaldson increasing the intensity of his on-field work. In a potential setback, though, Carlos Rodon’s back injury was deemed “chronic” by doctors. — Lee
Record: 22-16
Previous ranking: 15
Following a four-game sweep of the division rival Blue Jays, Boston continued its hot streak with a series win against the Phillies on the road before splitting a two-game series with the Braves. Outfielder Masataka Yoshida took American League Player of the Week honors for May 1-7 after hitting .480 (12-for-25) with two doubles, two homers, eight RBIs, a walk, seven runs scored, an .800 slugging percentage and a .519 on-base percentage. Meanwhile, first baseman Triston Casas is showing some flashes at the plate, collecting five hits in 15 at-bats over the past week. — Lee
Record: 20-17
Previous ranking: 7
Milwaukee blew its chance to retake command of the division while the Pirates were playing the Rays and Jays in the East. Instead, the Brewers endured their own six-game losing skid, which included getting swept by the Rockies and barely escaping the Giants series with a win. Like for others in the division, regression has reared its head in Milwaukee — in this case, on offense. Playing at Coors Field did the Brewers no favors, as they scored just nine runs in the three games there. They woke up a bit in a 9-3 win over the Dodgers on Monday but followed that up with only a couple of runs scored in losses on Tuesday and Wednesday. If Christian Yelich could raise his OPS over .700, it would provide a big help. — Rogers
Record: 20-17
Previous ranking: 11
The Twins and, presumably, their fans were understandably thrilled when Carlos Correa‘s foray into free agency saw his flirtations with the Giants and Mets fall through, landing him back in the Twins Cities. The first few weeks of his return to Minnesota have been far from a fairy tale. Correa went 1-for-12 in a three-game series at Cleveland over the weekend, and then, in the first game of the Twins’ return to Target Field, he went 0-for-5, dropping his season average to as low as .185 on Tuesday.
Correa himself likes to point out that he’s a slow starter, though his career numbers suggest that it’s more true that he’s sometimes a slow starter. The underlying metrics aren’t alarming. Most of his ratios are around his career standards. He is going to the opposite field more and his average exit velocity is only about average, a tick down for him. As this is the first season of Correa’s new six-year contract, everyone will feel a lot better if his bat warms up with the weather. — Doolittle
Record: 18-19
Previous ranking: 6
The Mets are paying Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Kodai Senga, Carlos Carrasco and Jose Quintana a combined $128.6 million in 2023 — higher than the Opening Day payroll of 12 teams — but that group has started just 16 of the team’s first 37 games, including Verlander’s second start on Wednesday night.
Scherzer was scratched from his start on Tuesday because of neck spasms, and between that, his ejection and subsequent 10-game suspension for too much sticky substance and a short outing last time out, he has pitched just 22 innings in four starts (and has a 5.52 ERA). The fill-ins haven’t done well, either: David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi, Jose Butto and Denyi Reyes are a combined 5-9 with an ERA over 5.00. Most of that is on Peterson, who was solid in 2022 but is 1-5 with a 7.68 ERA. As a result: The Mets, once 14-7, are now under .500. — Schoenfield
Record: 20-17
Previous ranking: 17
Raise your hand if you had Geraldo Perdomo as the D-backs’ best hitter this season. Put it down — you’re lying. It’s still early, but Perdomo, Arizona’s 23-year-old shortstop, boasts a team-leading 1.033 OPS, with nearly as many walks (11) as strikeouts (15). Yes, the same Perdomo whose .262 slugging percentage in 2022 ranked dead last among those with at least 500 plate appearances. Perdomo’s slugging percentage is now up 311 points! He’s a solid defender at a premium position, but if he can continue to provide something close to this type of offensive production, the D-backs will be in business. — Gonzalez
Record: 20-18
Previous ranking: 18
Six weeks in and the Angels look … decent? They sport a winning record and a positive run differential. Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout are playing up to their capabilities, Anthony Rendon is healthy — though he’s still waiting for his power to reemerge — and the back end of their bullpen seems to be rounding into shape. They do, however, have a catching problem. With Logan O’Hoppe sidelined by shoulder surgery, Max Stassi slow in his recovery from a hip injury and Chad Wallach recently suffering a concussion, the Angels were forced to call up a 28-year-old named Chris Okey, who had seven games of major league experience and was slugging .225 in the Pacific Coast League. If the Angels hope to contend, they’ll need to address their depth at this position at some point. — Gonzalez
Record: 18-19
Previous ranking: 20
Bryce Miller had a second straight strong start to begin his career, allowing one run and striking out 15 in 12 innings, and George Kirby just delivered one of his best starts as a pro with seven scoreless innings against the Rangers, but the Seattle offense continues to struggle. It’s time to admit the Mariners have a major strikeout problem from their best hitters. Through Tuesday, Teoscar Hernandez has 51 K’s and just five walks in 36 games. Julio Rodriguez has 45 K’s and 11 walks in 34 games. Eugenio Suarez has 45 K’s in 36 games. All are hitting under .230. Jarred Kelenic and Cal Raleigh are also averaging more than a strikeout per game. If those guys don’t improve, the Mariners will be stuck at .500 no matter how good the starting pitching. — Schoenfield
Record: 18-19
Previous ranking: 14
Philly lost six in a row to the Astros, Dodgers and Red Sox to fall back under .500. The Phillies are built around their stars and not all of them have been producing. Trea Turner has the feel of somebody perhaps feeling the pressure to live up to the big contract, with a higher strikeout rate and higher launch angle — the signs of somebody trying to hit home runs. A related concern, however: He ranked in the 57th percentile in chase rate in 2021, fell to the 22nd percentile in 2022 and is way down in the 10th percentile in 2023. He’s swinging at too many non-strikes. Kyle Schwarber, meanwhile, is hitting under .200 as he continues to morph into Adam Dunn — home runs and walks, but also a ton of whiffs and low batting averages. He had a 132 OPS+ last year, which is good; he’s below 100 this year, which isn’t good for a middle-of-the-order hitter. — Schoenfield
Record: 21-17
Previous ranking: 13
It’s been an ugly week for the Pirates, who somehow still find themselves in first place despite a seven-game losing streak that was followed by one win and then two more losses. At least they were able to cross Tampa Bay and Toronto off their schedule, because facing them was a miserable experience. The once-surprising Pirates staff compiled a 5.16 ERA from May 3 to May 9, third worst in the NL over that time span. Regression was predicted by many, and the Pirates lived up to it. Could a drop in the standings be next? Smart money says it’s coming. — Rogers
Record: 18-19
Previous ranking: 16
The Cubs are trying to thread the needle of a very winnable division while debuting players during the end of a mini retool. On Tuesday, the bottom three players in their lineup were two rookies playing in their first few days in the big leagues and another player making his season debut after being called up from Triple-A. So it’s not a surprise things have been a little up and down lately, especially on offense. Over the past 10 days, they’re averaging just over three runs per game, and calls for veteran Eric Hosmer to be designated for assignment are getting stronger. His WRC-plus is just 74. — Rogers
Record: 17-20
Previous ranking: 19
Run prevention is the foundation of these Guardians, but if Cleveland is going to successfully defend its AL Central title, it’ll have to hit at least a little. While that sounds like a low bar, the Guardians have not managed to clear it. The offense has been one of baseball’s worst over the season’s opening weeks, and the problem seems to be getting worse, not better. The Guardians’ 162-game runs scored pace was 810 as of April 9. Not bad. Last season, Cleveland scored 698 runs. That number has been going steadily down ever since. After dropping a 5-0 whitewash to the Tigers on Wednesday and slipping behind Detroit into third place in the AL Central, the Guardians are on pace to score 552 runs. That would be the fewest runs Cleveland has scored over a non-shortened season since 1971. — Doolittle
Record: 19-19
Previous ranking: 22
It continues to be a wild up-and-down ride for the Marlins, who are now 12-0 in one-run games and hovering around .500 despite getting outscored by 54 runs. Luis Arraez and Jorge Soler continue to carry the offense. Arraez had a nine-game stretch from April 30 through May 9 in which he hit .324 and got at least one hit in every game — but his average dropped from .438 to .408. Soler has been hot in May, including a two-homer, five-RBI game in Tuesday’s 6-2 win over Arizona. Sandy Alcantara continues to search for that Cy Young form. He scuffled against the Braves last Tuesday, throwing 103 pitches in just five innings, but rebounded with a strong outing of 8⅓ innings to beat the Cubs on Sunday. — Schoenfield
Record: 16-20
Previous ranking: 23
The Giants had a chance to win their third consecutive series to begin the month of May on Wednesday, but Sean Manaea was charged with eight runs (four earned) and couldn’t complete the third inning against the hapless Nationals. Manaea, signed to a two-year, $25 million contract over the offseason, has a 7.96 ERA with 16 walks through his first 26 innings as a member of the Giants. — Gonzalez
Record: 13-25
Previous ranking: 21
Could the ship be righting itself? The Cardinals produced their first (mini) winning streak of the year when they defeated the Tigers on Sunday then took a series against the Cubs this week. Of course, as all that was happening, they were creating more than just a mini controversy when they very publicly pulled Willson Contreras from his starting duties as catcher. He might return to the job soon but not before work is done to better the flow and communication between pitcher and catcher. There’s less time to think with a pitch timer, and the Cardinals aren’t maximizing all that they want to be. That improvement might come through pregame preparation. — Rogers
Record: 17-19
Previous ranking: 26
The Tigers’ push into second place in the division is one of the bigger surprises of the season (even if it is the AL Central), given where they projected to finish and because they seemed intent to justify those projections by starting the season 2-9. Still, the bigger picture remains the progress of their young players, and so far, that news has been encouraging. Spencer Torkelson is still trying to find his stride, but he has trimmed his strikeout rate and is hitting the ball hard more consistently. His numbers have been on the rise over the past week, with his OPS jumping more than 100 points during that span. Meanwhile, Riley Greene has been one of the team’s hottest hitters since late April. Since April 26, Greene has hit .327 with an .820 OPS. — Doolittle
Record: 15-21
Previous ranking: 24
If you can believe it, the Reds were the only NL Central team without a losing record over a 10-game span ending Tuesday. Going 5-5 probably never felt so good, but there are underlying pitching issues that need working out. Nick Lodolo has given up 50 hits in just 34⅓ innings to go along with a league-leading 10 home runs allowed. And Graham Ashcraft had a forgettable start against the White Sox over the weekend, giving up eight runs over 1⅔ innings. The result of all this was an MLB-worst 7.16 ERA for Cincinnati in its past five games (ending Tuesday). It’s a miracle the team actually went 5-5. — Rogers
Record: 13-25
Previous ranking: 25
While Andrew Vaughn‘s three-run winning homer did beat the mighty Rays on April 30, ending a 10-game skid and starting a three-game win streak, it did not seem to spark a prolonged streak of inspired play for the ChiSox. Instead, it has been win one, lose one over the past week. The news around the team has been in the same vein. In the “lose one” category, Eloy Jimenez landed on the IL after undergoing an appendectomy in Cincinnati. He’ll be out for a few weeks. But the “win one” items are pretty good: Liam Hendriks is back on the field and has been sharp during a rehab stint. And Yoan Moncada‘s ailing back improved enough for him to go on a rehab stint of his own, and his return to the majors looks imminent.
Perhaps the best news for a White Sox team that has possibly been baseball’s biggest disappointment is that it has been allowed to remain in the AL Central. Chicago never fell more than nine games back, and the win-one/lose one pattern was enough to cut 1½ games from that nadir. As bad as it has been, the White Sox still have plenty to play for. — Doolittle
Record: 16-22
Previous ranking: 28
The Rockies are playing better of late, winning seven of nine games to begin May. So, we’ll do our best to make this week’s section a positive one and point you in the direction of Kris Bryant, who played in only about a quarter of the team’s games in 2022, his first year of a massive contract. Bryant’s 2023 is off to a much better start, with a .301/.380/.451 slash line through his first 35 games. Still: He is one of only two regulars, along with Elias Diaz, with an adjusted OPS significantly above league average. — Gonzalez
Record: 16-21
Previous ranking: 27
MacKenzie Gore is 3-2 with a 3.65 ERA and showing improvement across the board, especially in the effectiveness of his curveball and slider. Last year, batters hit .250 with a 32% swing-and-miss rate against the curveball; this year, .154 with a 42% whiff rate. Batters hit .286 against the slider last season compared to .227 this season. The four-seamer hasn’t been as effective, although Gore continues to throw it 60% of the time — the fourth-highest four-seam percentage among starting pitchers. Of note as well: He hasn’t faced any of the bottom 10 offenses in his seven starts. — Schoenfield
Record: 11-27
Previous ranking: 29
The Royals have to be pleased with the progress of first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino, who has validated a solid debut season in 2022 with across-the-board improvements that have made him a complete package as a hitter. Certainly he has the slash stats covered, with a career batting line of .296/.383/.481. A left masher, Pasquantino has hit .330 against southpaws so far in his career. The one thing remaining is for Pasquantino to hit for power more consistently, as his sub-.500 slugging is a little light for someone with his bat-on-ball skills, advanced approach and 6-4, 245-pound build. He looks like the real deal. — Doolittle
Record: 8-30
Previous ranking: 30
The Athletics appear to be another step closer to leaving Oakland after the team reportedly reached an agreement with Bally’s Corporation to build a $1.5 billion stadium on the Tropicana Hotel site that resides on the southern end of the Las Vegas Strip, lowering the request for taxpayer funding for the project to $395 million. As for the Athletics, the team is currently on pace for around 45 victories, which would be the third-worst winning percentage in MLB history. — Lee
The marathon has now become a sprint. Three weeks remain in the regular season and the chaos that has made this one of the more intriguing college football seasons in recent memory is set to deliver a thrilling, potentially chaotic final stretch.
Only three undefeated teams remain — Ohio State, Indiana and Texas A&M have all proven to be not just the cream of the crop but likely College Football Playoff shoo-ins, while behind them, a slew of teams are teetering on a thin line between being in or out.
This week features four ranked matchups that could shift the playoff picture dramatically. No. 9 Notre Dame’s margin for error is zero as it faces a 7-2 Pittsburgh team that is also eyeing a playoff spot — or according to Pat Narduzzi, the ACC championship. Iowa had its dreams dashed by Oregon last week, but now it’ll be USC which faces the No. 21 Hawkeyes in Los Angeles, knowing that if it wins out, USC will likely punch its ticket to its first CFP.
Meanwhile, two-loss, No. 10 Texas has surged back into the playoff picture, only to be faced with having to beat No. 5 Georgia in Athens this week. You can say the same thing about the two-loss, 11th-ranked Sooners; Oklahoma’s own outside shot at a playoff will require a win against No. 4 Alabama in Tuscaloosa this week.
Buckle up. — Paolo Uggetti
Jump to:
Texas-Georgia | Key matchups
ACC title race | Quotes of the week
What have Texas, Georgia done well in conference play?
Texas: Texas and Arch Manning appeared to have found a groove in the play-action game, completing 86% of such throws, on 12.1 yards per attempt with three TDs and no interceptions against Vanderbilt versus 64% completion and 7.2 yards per play in the season’s first eight games, according to ESPN Analytics. Manning has eclipsed 300 yards with three touchdowns in each of the past two games, becoming the first Texas QB to do that since Sam Ehlinger in 2018.
Behind an improved offensive line, the Texas offense is much more efficient, and coach Steve Sarkisian praised the growth and maturity of Manning running the offense. But the defense, meanwhile, has struggled as of late. After allowing just 11.3 points per game in the first seven games, they’ve allowed 30 points in back-to-back games. The pass defense has been particularly leaky, allowing 382 yards to Mississippi State and 365 to Vanderbilt. — Dave Wilson
Georgia: Georgia’s defense was its shortcoming earlier this season, but the Bulldogs have played better lately on that side of the ball. After struggling to get off the field on third downs, Florida went only 2-for-11 on third down in Georgia’s 24-20 victory on Nov. 1. Last week, after giving up a touchdown to Mississippi State on its opening possession, the Bulldogs settled down and had three sacks in a 41-21 win. Last season, Georgia defeated Texas twice: 30-15 in Austin in the regular season and 22-19 in overtime in the SEC championship game.
Defense was the primary reason the Bulldogs won both of those games: They had 13 sacks combined and allowed the Longhorns to rush for fewer than 35 yards in each game. The Longhorns were only 2-for-15 on third down in the first loss. Georgia needs to continue to be disruptive on defense, shut down the running game again and get pressure on Manning to get him out of rhythm. — Mark Schlabach
What’s at stake in each matchup?
Iowa-USC: Despite getting dominated on the ground by Notre Dame to the tune of 306 yards in Week 8, USC has not gone away. It only has one conference loss — a two-point heartbreaker against Illinois earlier in the season — and now find itself with a very clear mandate: Win out and the Trojans can all but guarantee the program’s first ever College Football Playoff appearance.
The first obstacle in front of them is Iowa, which comes to Los Angeles after watching its own Big Ten and playoff chances evaporate in a close loss to Oregon. The Hawkeyes could not be more stylistically different than the Trojans and, like they did against Oregon, will try to slow down and muddy the game to their liking. If USC can’t establish a good rhythm on offense, it will have to try and beat Iowa at its own game.
Lincoln Riley’s team has one of the most effective offenses in the nation, leading to at least 30 points scored in all but one game this season. That happened against Nebraska a few weeks ago, but USC was still able to pull out a very Big Ten win with its defense. Chances are, the Trojans will be forced to do the same this Saturday if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive. — Uggetti
Notre Dame-Pitt: Saturday’s showdown between No. 9 Notre Dame and No. 22 Pitt is, oddly enough, bigger for the Irish than the Panthers. As Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi noted in his weekly news conference, Notre Dame can utterly demolish Pitt, but Narduzzi’s squad will still have a ready path to the ACC title game and, thus, a playoff berth. Of course, that’s not a scenario worth counting on, and a win for Pitt would do wonders to erase the stain of a September loss to West Virginia and prop up an ACC desperately in need of something positive to cling to.
For Notre Dame, however, the stakes are far clearer: Its past two games of the season are against awful Syracuse and Stanford teams, making this matchup against Pitt all but a win-and-you’re-in contest for the Irish. The committee has Notre Dame safely in the field now, and it’s hard to envision how a 10-2 Irish team could fall down the playoff ladder, so this is probably the only serious hurdle remaining. It is a hurdle, however, particularly given Pitt’s exceptional pass rush, and if the Panthers can pull off the upset, it would have the opposite effect on Notre Dame, likely ending the Irish’s playoff hopes. — David Hale
Oklahoma-Alabama: Championships and CFP stakes are on the line when the Sooners travel to take on the Crimson Tide. But nobody has to tell either team that, particularly Alabama — which cost itself an at-large berth in the CFP last season after a disappointing 24-3 loss in Norman. During his news conference this week, Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer said he wants the players who played in that game to remember it because “our experiences help us be better the next time around.”
That certainly was the case earlier this year when Alabama beat Vanderbilt and Tennessee — two teams it also lost to a season ago. Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson said he has gotten some advice on this Sooners defense from a good friend — Texas quarterback Arch Manning. Texas beat Oklahoma last month, 23-6, and Manning threw for 166 yards and a touchdown and ran for 34 more. Alabama can clinch a spot in the SEC championship game with a win and losses by Georgia and Texas A&M.
As for Oklahoma, a win over Alabama for a second straight year would only serve to bolster its CFP résumé, particularly because the Sooners remain on the outside looking in for an at-large berth as of now. Though they rank in the top 12, two conference champions — presumably the ACC and the top Group of 5 team — would take the final two spots in the 12-team playoff. Oklahoma had an open date after its win over Tennessee to prepare for Alabama, though coach Brent Venables said there is little carry-over from its result against the Tide last year.
“The season for both of us is impacted by the result at the end of the night,” he said. “Who wouldn’t be excited to play Oklahoma-Alabama? Two of the most iconic programs in college football.” — Andrea Adelson
Why the road to the ACC title game is up for grabs
The ACC is a hot mess, and not in the fun contestant on “Love Island” sort of way. It’s more of the “Oh, no, what if Duke wins the conference championship and they give the playoff berth to James Madison instead?” sort of way.
In other words, these are dark times for the conference.
Set aside that two of the biggest brands in the league — Clemson and Florida State — are floundering through lost seasons.
Set aside that its four highest-ranked teams have all lost to unranked foes in the past two weeks.
Set aside the very real possibility that the eventual league champion might have a loss to UConn, West Virginia or Baylor.
Any one of those items would be bad enough. But it’s the fact that they’re all happening concurrently, that Miami is sabotaging itself again and injuries upended Louisville and Virginia runs, and Pat Narduzzi is waxing poetic about Notre Dame scoring 100 against Pitt — it’s a perfect storm of bad results, bad press and bad options remaining for the ACC.
Look at NC State, a team that’s stuck navigating a disappointing 5-4 campaign in which it lost to woeful Virginia Tech, but also has delivered brutal blows to both Virginia’s and Georgia Tech‘s playoff hopes and could add Miami to that list this weekend. There are no winners here!
There’s an argument that much of this is just a narrative issue, that when the SEC beats up on itself, it’s a testament to the conference’s depth, but when the ACC does it, it means everyone stinks. There’s some truth in that argument. But the results still tell a bleak story. Coming off a 2-11 bowl season in 2024, the ACC now has six losses outside of the Power 4 and a worse record in Power 4 nonconference wins than the American Conference. No wonder the ACC doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt.
So now we peer into the future and wonder what comes next. Georgia Tech has the best odds of winning the league, according to FPI, at 35%. But next up is Duke at 20%. The Blue Devils have losses to Illinois, Tulane and UConn, and if they were to win it all, there’s a good chance the ACC gets passed by a second Group of 5 champion — something the Allstate Playoff Predictor gives a 26% chance of happening. The same might be true if SMU wins it. The Mustangs have the third-best odds at 19.5%, followed by Virginia (13.6%) and Pitt (4%). The highest-ranked ACC team, Miami, has the lowest title odds of teams with a chance to still win it, and has a better chance of making the playoff than the ACC title game.
In other words, the ACC Wheel of Destiny is back in action, Coastal Chaos has spread throughout the entire conference, and the next few weeks will either see a true favorite emerge or ensure the ACC is the most derided power league in recent memory. — Hale
Quotes of the week
“Absolutely not,” Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi said when asked if Saturday’s visit from Notre Dame is a “must-win” game for the Panthers. “It’s not an ACC game. Glad you brought that up. I’d gladly get beat 103 … or 110-10 in that game. They can put 100 up on us as long as we win the next two. Again, our focus is on Notre Dame and getting as many wins as we can.”
“This team didn’t beat Texas,” Georgia’s Kirby Smart said of his Bulldogs, who swept Texas across two meetings in 2024. “And Texas hasn’t played this team of ours. So, two completely different teams in my opinion. I think it has zero effect on it.”
Texas A&M’s Mike Elko on South Carolina’s 2025 schedule, which ranks fourth in strength of schedule nationally, per ESPN’s College Football Power Index: “I don’t know what they did to the scheduling gods to get the schedule that they’ve got.”
“I was told about it. I haven’t heard it,” Oklahoma coach Brent Venables said of Clemson’s Dabo Swinney mimicking his voice over the weekend after Venables visited the program in Week 11. “He’s got me down. He’s got about everybody down. He’s good at the impressions.”
Dabo Swinney channeling his inner Brent Venables is pure gold pic.twitter.com/LwRQtAc4Nh
— Jordan Woodson (@Jordan_Woodson) November 9, 2025
“I’ve actually won a championship and we’re going to do it again,” Florida State’s Mike Norvell said in a passionate defense of his track record and the Seminoles’ trajectory. “We’re going to do it here. That might piss people off. So be it. They’ll be celebrating when we’re hoisting a trophy, and it will be the belief that I see from our players, the belief that I see from our coaches, the talent that I know that our players have, and the guys that are coming to be a part of this.”
“Getting ready for Wake Forest, that’s all I got this week,” said North Carolina‘s Bill Belichick following questions about potential interest in the New York Giants head coaching job.
“Look I’ve been down this road before,” Belichick continued. “I’m focused on Wake Forest, that’s it. That’s my commitment to this team. This week it’s Wake Forest, next week it’s that opponent and so forth. I’m here to do the best for this team.”
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Pamela Maldonado
Week 12 is here, and the board finally feels like it’s talking back. Some totals are whispering, some spreads are screaming and a couple of these games … well, they’re practically sending handwritten invitations.
This week’s card is a mix of unders (been loving my under lately) that make too much sense, a dog that plays like it wants to bite, and a few matchups where the math and the matchup actually agree for once.
Think of it as a little buffet of conviction.
All odds by ESPN BET
Bet to make: Boise State team total UNDER 19.5
With Max Cutforth at quarterback, this offense simply loses its punch. His 4.4 yards per attempt and 51% completion rate limits the explosive abilities right now, it’s a unit trying to survive through the run game and short-field drives.
That’s a problem against a San Diego State defense that’s been elite at home. The Aztecs have allowed just 31 total points in their four home games, holding three opponents to seven points or less.
Their front should overwhelm a Boise State offensive line that’s given up 18 sacks on the season breaking in a new QB behind center. Boise State’s run game has been solid, but this matchup flips its strength against San Diego State’s biggest advantage, a front seven that wins early downs and forces third-and-longs.
San Diego State’s methodical pace also limits possessions. The math, the matchup and the trend all align. Boise State’s defense might keep it close, but the offense doesn’t have enough juice to cash this over.
Bet to make: Jacksonville State +3.5
The Gamecocks have found their rhythm with a ground game that is among the best in Conference USA, averaging 252 rushing yards per game at 5.2 yards per carry.
RB Cam Cook has been a steady force, while QB Caden Creel‘s mobility adds another layer that keeps defenses guessing. They don’t rely on big plays as much as they wear teams down with tempo, time of possession and physicality.
That style is exactly what can frustrate a Kennesaw State defense that has been solid overall but has shown cracks against run-heavy offenses late in games.
Jacksonville State has the game to survive close ones. The +3.5 provides cushion in what should be another possession-for-possession battle. If your bankroll allows for a bit more volatility, the +140 money line is worth a look.
Jacksonville State has the formula to control pace and pull off another outright win.
Bet to make: UCF team total Under 10.5
Texas Tech is built to smother teams like UCF. The Knights’ offense is running on fumes, and the matchup in Lubbock feels like walking into a buzzsaw.
The Knights are averaging 11.3 points per game in conference play on the road, with a drop-off that’s been steep from moving the ball between the 20s to completely stalling once they cross midfield. That’s the biggest red flag going up against a Texas Tech defensive front, led by David Bailey and Romello Height, that sits among the best in the country in pressure rate and sacks.
The problem is twofold: protection and finishing. UCF’s offensive line has struggled to handle pressure, and Texas Tech leads the Big 12 in sacks with 29 while leading the country in pressures. When you combine that with UCF’s 32% third-down rate, it paints a picture of a team that’s constantly behind the sticks, forced into long-yardage situations it can’t convert. Even if UCF moves the ball, red zone trips have been few and unproductive.
It’s hard to find a realistic path to 11 points for the Knights. Texas Tech has size, depth and energy at home. UCF’s offense simply doesn’t.
Bet to make: TCU team total Under 23.5
BYU’s entire identity is built on reducing possessions, winning with efficiency and forcing opponents into long fields. Its defense is not elite on a yards basis, but it tightens in the red zone and creates game-changing moments with sacks and interceptions. Add it up, and 21 sacks, 12 interceptions and a positive turnover ratio tell you this defense plays opportunistic football.
The other piece of this is BYU’s offense, which runs for 200 yards per game and controls time of possession. That’s a huge part of why I lean under rather than a side. If BYU plays its game, it shrinks the possessions and keeps opponents to eight or nine true scoring opportunities. TCU needs efficiency to break 24 points. The Horned Frogs haven’t been that team away from home.
BYU’s defense gets the pricing respect. TCU’s total is shaded to the under and BYU is favored because its style travels and its defense sustains it.
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