How the Rays proved in May that they can win it all in October
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David Schoenfield, ESPN Senior Writer
For a long time, I’ve considered the Tampa Bay Rays to be baseball’s little miracle, succeeding in the sport’s toughest division — the American League East — despite low payrolls, low attendance figures and a stadium situation that remains unresolved.
That view is a little unfair, though, because in one sense, the Rays are no different from the New York Yankees or Los Angeles Dodgers or Houston Astros or Atlanta Braves — they expect to contend for a World Series every season.
They have made the playoffs the past four seasons, but there always seems some surprise that they’re doing it again. Perhaps that’s because they turn the roster over rapidly and often rely upon depth more than star power. In 2019, they won 96 games, but their four best players that season (Charlie Morton, Austin Meadows, Willy Adames and Tommy Pham) are long gone. They reached the World Series in 2020, but that was kind of a scrappy team with a great bullpen. The 2021 team hit a lot of home runs and won 100 games even though its two pitchers with the most innings had ERAs over 5.00. Last year’s team snuck in with 86 wins mainly due to the emergence of Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs. Now two of those three are injured — and this still looks like the best Rays team ever, except with two young stars to build around in McClanahan and Wander Franco.
Since 2019, only the Dodgers and Astros have won more games; since 2008, only the Dodgers, Yankees and St. Louis Cardinals. The Rays are not a miracle — they’re an exceptional organization, only one that’s less celebrated.
The national spotlight fell on them after they began the season with 13 consecutive wins and finished April at 23-6 with an incredible plus-103 run differential. That first month put them on an early pace to become one of the greatest teams of all time. There were still skeptics, however, since the Rays dominated a soft schedule and in their two toughest series, against the Toronto Blue Jays and Astros, they dropped four of six games.
May, on the other hand, presented a much more difficult slate of opponents, so we got a better idea of the Rays’ potential greatness. Let’s go back series by series and see what we learned.
The Pirates entered this series nearly as hot as the Rays, with a 20-9 record and as winners of 11 of their past 13 games. The Rays beat them 4-1, 8-1 and 3-2. In the finale, Zach Eflin tossed seven scoreless innings and struck out 10 with no walks — the first time in his career he recorded double-digit strikeouts with no free passes. Eflin was one of the more intriguing free agent signings of the offseason as the Rays gave him a three-year, $40 million contract — not only the largest free agent deal in franchise history but one to a pitcher with a 4.49 career ERA who had pitched just 181 innings over the previous two seasons.
What did the Rays see? A guy who throws strikes — Eflin averaged just 1.5 walks per nine over the 2021-22 seasons with the Philadelphia Phillies. “In an era of power and velocity, he’s an artist,” president of baseball operations Erik Neander said in December when the club signed Eflin. A better defense behind him — certainly better than the ones the Phillies have thrown out there during Eflin’s career — combined with the Rays’ ability to improve a pitcher’s repertoire meant the signing made a lot of sense.
Indeed, Eflin improved to 4-0 after beating the Pirates and is now 7-1 with a 3.17 ERA — allowing just seven walks in 54 innings. Sure enough, the Rays have tweaked things a little bit. He has increased his cutter usage from 15% to 31% and nearly completely ditched his four-seamer, which he threw 16% of the time last year, to stick with his sinker, with the cutter/sinker combo playing successfully off each other. The biggest change, however, might simply be the defense: He had a career .303 batting average allowed on balls in play with the Phillies and it’s at .280 with the Rays.
“Some guys out-stuff you. Some guys out-execute you. He’s got a little bit of a combination of both,” manager Kevin Cash said of Eflin after the win on May 4.
With the sweep of Pittsburgh, the Rays improved to 26-6 — the best 32-game start since the 1984 Detroit Tigers went 27-5.
Lesson learned: They already had one ace in McClanahan. They potentially had a second in Springs, but he went down for the season with Tommy John surgery in April. The Eflin signing now looks not only particularly astute, but necessary.
May 5-7: vs. New York Yankees
OK, so the Pirates had cooled after that hot April. This would be the first real test for the Rays — and it was a terrific series with three one-run games, two of those going the Rays’ way.
The Rays won the first game 5-4 while wearing their old Devil Rays uniforms — the retro look that’s now much more appealing than when the Devil Rays were losing 100 games every season. The go-ahead run scored in the seventh when Yankees left fielder Jake Bauers dropped a catchable fly ball and turned it into a double — and then kicked the ball, allowing Yandy Diaz to score from first base (instant replay overruled the tag play at home, as Diaz was originally called out). While bad Yankees defense lost the game, the Rays won with some good defense of their own. Jose Siri ranged into deep center field to corral the final out of the game, while Josh Lowe earlier made a diving catch in right field with two runners on.
When the Rays acquired Siri last season from the Astros, they knew he could play center field. Outfield defense has long been a Rays trademark, and when longtime center fielder Kevin Kiermaier left as a free agent, Siri was given the chance as the regular. He missed two weeks in April with a hamstring strain, but he’s now hitting .243/.292/.563 with nine home runs. He’s not going to be a high-average or high-OBP guy, but the power and defense make him useful. Lowe, meanwhile, has broken out in his sophomore season, hitting .300/.349/.581 with 11 home runs.
The Yankees won the next game 3-2 with three runs in the eighth off the Tampa Bay bullpen, but the Rays won the finale 8-7 in a game Gerrit Cole started for the Yankees. Christian Bethancourt hit a big three-run homer off Cole in the sixth, the Rays threw out a runner at home in the top of the 10th and then Isaac Paredes singled in the winning run.
Lesson learned: With guys like Siri and Lowe contributing, the Rays’ lineup is deeper than ever and much more powerful than last year’s team, which ranked 11th in the AL with 139 home runs. Through Monday, this year’s team already has 101 home runs — most in the majors — and owns a 136 wRC+ (park-adjusted weighted runs created), which easily leads the majors. In the wild-card era (since 1998), the highest single-season wRC+ belongs to the 2019 Astros at 124.
The Rays won 3-0 behind McClanahan to improve to 29-7, but then lost 4-2 and 2-1. At this point, the Rays were 29-9, on pace for 124 wins — but the Orioles were only 4.5 games back, off to their own blazing start.
Lesson learned: The AL East is going to be absolutely brutal and wonderful all season long.
May 11-14: at New York Yankees
In the first game of the series, Drew Rasmussen pitched seven scoreless innings, allowing just two hits, as the Rays won 8-2. In recent years, no team has been more astute at finding pitchers from other organizations than the Rays, and Rasmussen had been a shining example of this — although his journey to the majors began when the Rays drafted him 31st overall out of Oregon State in 2017. The Rays didn’t sign him due to concerns with his post-draft physical (he had Tommy John surgery as a sophomore), so Rasmussen returned to OSU, where he did indeed undergo a second TJ surgery. The Brewers drafted him in the sixth round in 2018, and he reached the majors as a reliever in 2020. The Rays acquired him early in the 2021 season along with J.P. Feyereisen for Willy Adames and Trevor Richards (in a deal, to be fair, that worked out for both teams).
The Rays eventually moved Rasmussen back into a starting role. He developed a new cutter and had a breakout season in 2022 (11-7, 2.84), and after his gem against the Yankees, he was 4-2 with a 2.62 ERA. Going back to 2021, he was 18-9 in 46 career starts with a 2.63 ERA. While still relatively anonymous, he had become one of the better starters in the league. Then came the crushing news: The day after his start, the Rays placed Rasmussen on the 60-day injured list with a flexor strain in his forearm, announcing that he would be shut down for eight weeks and then would start building up again — assuming all goes well, given that a flexor strain is often a precursor to Tommy John surgery.
This gets us to the dirty little secret with the Rays: As good as they are at finding and developing pitchers, they have trouble keeping them healthy.
They had turned Springs from a journeyman reliever into a potential Cy Young candidate before his injury. In recent years, Tyler Glasnow, Yonny Chirinos, Colin Poche and Jalen Beeks all underwent Tommy John surgery. So did Shane Baz, who is out for all of 2023 while rehabbing. Reliever Andrew Kittredge, an All-Star in 2021, pitched just 20 innings last season and has missed all of 2023 with elbow issues. Colby White was one of the best relievers in the minors in 2021 but has yet to reach the majors after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Brendan McKay had shoulder issues and then underwent Tommy John surgery, which has him sidelined for all of 2023.
With Rasmussen injured and Glasnow out since the start of the season with an oblique strain, the Rays would now have to get through this difficult stretch of May without three-fifths of their projected starting rotation. Throw in a season-ending knee injury to key reliever Garrett Cleavinger and the assumption that the Rays have an endless supply of pitchers that they pluck out of Durham or off the waiver wire — or from some secret underwater lair in the Gulf of Mexico — will be severely tested.
Meanwhile, the Yankees won 5-4 the next night when Anthony Rizzo hit a two-run homer off Jason Adam in the eighth inning and then won the third game 9-8 as New York knocked out McClanahan after four innings and Aaron Judge homered twice. Rays exposed? Hardly. They bounced back with an 8-7 win as Taylor Walls belted a grand slam — yet another player hitting much better than projected. After hitting .172 with eight home runs in 466 plate appearances in 2022, the switch-hitter made some minor mechanical tweaks after visiting a hitting instructor outside the organization. The changes have produced more hard contact and a higher launch angle that has already produced seven home runs and a .488 slugging percentage.
Maybe it’s a surprise that some of these guys are hitting at this level, but it shouldn’t be a surprise that they’ve improved. “They have shown the ability coming up through the minor leagues that they can hit,” Cash said after Walls’ grand slam. “I think we thought it was more a matter of time. It doesn’t always come out of the gate.”
Anyway, the Rays hold on to split the four-game series when Judge flew out to Siri on the warning track to end it. Adam left a first-pitch sweeper over the middle of the plate and hung his head as Judge connected — sure he had just allowed the game-tying home run. “I thought it was 30 rows deep,” Adam said. “But thankfully, [Judge] missed it more than I thought.”
Overall, the Rays played the Yankees seven times in 10 days with six of the games decided by one run — two of the best series we’ll see all season. The Rays went 4-3 — and then came perhaps the most exciting game of the season so far.
Lesson learned: The Rays’ pitching depth will be tested — but if the offense keeps rolling, it might be dominant enough to cover the injuries to the rotation.
On May 16, the Rays beat Justin Verlander, knocking him around for eight hits, two home runs (both by Paredes) and six runs. Then came the game of the year. The Rays led 2-0, the Mets tied it in the bottom of the seventh, the Rays took a 6-3 lead, Francisco Alvarez hit a game-tying three-run home run in the bottom of the ninth off Adam, the Rays scored twice in the 10th and then Pete Alonso won it with a three-run walk-off blast off Pete Fairbanks. Wow.
Therein lies the biggest concern I have about this Rays team: Is this a championship-caliber bullpen? Adam, let go five times in his career, came out of nowhere last season to post a 1.56 ERA and hold batters to a .147 average. He’s got kind of a funky short-arm delivery and isn’t overpowering for a modern closer, relying on a changeup and sweeper. He has been a little more hittable this season with a .200 average and four home runs allowed. Meanwhile, Fairbanks has a 1.26 ERA over the past two seasons — but has pitched just 35 2/3 innings and is once again back on the IL with hip inflammation.
Factor in that the Rays have had to return to using an occasional bullpen arm to open due to all the injuries in the rotation and the bullpen depth is hitting a crisis point: The Rays have already churned through 26 pitchers (not counting two position players who have pitched). Rays relievers lead the majors in innings — yes, even more than the Oakland Athletics — and rank last in strikeout rate (yes, lower than the A’s). We know the Rays’ history of conjuring up good major league relievers out of thin air — Adam and Fairbanks being two examples — but that supposition is being stretched to the limits.
The Mets took the third game to take the series and drop the Rays to 32-13 — still on pace for 115 wins. But the Orioles at this point were still just 3.5 games behind.
Lesson learned: Strong bullpens have been a hallmark of the Rays in recent seasons, but this might be the team’s soft spot in 2023, especially if Fairbanks can’t stay healthy and Adam continues to be homer-prone.
After those intense games against the two New York teams, a more subdued series followed against the Brewers, with the Rays taking two out of three, including a 1-0 victory behind McClanahan. In the Saturday night game, Diaz returned after missing four games and hit his 11th home run. Let’s talk about Diaz, who is second in MLB in wRC+ through Monday, sandwiched between two much more famous hitters in Judge and Yordan Alvarez.
I don’t know if Diaz is the strongest player in the majors, but he’s certainly the most likely to win a Mr. Universe contest. Despite his stature, he has never hit for much power — though he possesses excellent plate discipline and doesn’t strike out much. He hit nine home runs last season in 473 at-bats and his career high is 14 back in the rabbit-ball year of 2019. His issue has been getting the ball in the air enough to take advantage of his strength. His average launch angle so far this season is a career-best 9.3 degrees — still below the MLB average but high enough that his fly ball rate has improved from 19.6% last season to 27% this year. He’s also simply barreling up more balls than he has in the past with a hard-hit rate that ranks in the top 10 in MLB. Add it up and he’s hitting .320/.420/.598 with 12 home runs and nearly as many walks (26) as strikeouts (29).
It’s certainly unusual for a 31-year-old to break out with a career season like this, but Diaz has always had a good approach to build off — and he did hit .296 with a .401 OBP last season. Even though he’s not the fastest guy around, Diaz has been hitting leadoff to take advantage of his on-base ability, a lineup Cash started deploying last season. It’s another example of the Rays thinking outside the box, using a non-conventional slow runner in the leadoff position.
“To see Yandy Díaz come up as the first hitter an opponent team faces is incredible,” Eflin said after the game on May 20. “He’s everything you want in a leadoff hitter.”
Lesson learned: Diaz has been hitting like an MVP candidate — although he might not even be the best MVP candidate on the team. Franco is tied with Freddie Freeman for second in MLB (behind Judge) in FanGraphs WAR among position players and leads in Baseball-Reference WAR. Diaz is eighth. And Randy Arozarena is 10th. The Rays have many weapons.
May 22-25: vs. Toronto Blue Jays
The Rays took three of four from the Jays — although a 20-1 loss cut into the team’s run differential (a category that the Rangers now lead). While Diaz doesn’t run, the Rays have other players who can do that — as witnessed by the seven stolen bases they recorded in a 6-3 win on May 25. The Rays have always loved fast, athletic players, and they’re certainly loving the new rules that benefit teams that steal bases. They lead the majors with 75 steals, 17 more than the No. 2 team, and when they face an especially weak pitcher-catcher combo, they can go wild: two games with seven steals and four others with at least four. Franco leads the team with 20 steals, Walls is a perfect 14-of-14 and Josh Lowe has 13.
So, to sum up: The Rays lead the majors in home runs and stolen bases. And they’re tied with the Reds for the highest percentage of extra bases taken (advancing more than one base on a single or more than two on a double). Oh, and they’re also tied with the Nationals and Royals for the youngest group of position players, averaging 26.9 years of age (weighted for playing time). That gets back to Cash’s comment about the improvement in some of the younger players: It shouldn’t be unexpected. Even Franco is still just 22 years old — and while his bat has been impressive, his defense has also taken a huge step forward, to the point where he looks like a Gold Glove candidate.
Lesson learned: No team can blow off a 20-1 loss like the Rays. And fast players are fun. And 22-year-old shortstops who can hit, run and field are really fun.
May 26-28 vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Rays took two out of three. Sunday’s game was an 11-10 affair with Adam getting a two-inning save with four strikeouts, perhaps a sign he’s getting back into his 2022 groove.
Lesson learned: Yeah, the Rays are for real. We’ll throw out the Pirates series and the Rays still ran through a 23-game gauntlet against the Yankees, Orioles, Mets, Blue Jays, Brewers and Dodgers and went 13-10. The pitching depth is a concern, although Glasnow made his first start in this series and struck out eight in 4 1/3 innings. A top three of McClanahan, Glasnow and Eflin is a quality trio, and rookie Taj Bradley has a 42-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in six starts. We’ll see if Rasmussen can make it back after the All-Star break.
The Rays did lose two in a row to the Chicago Cubs, 1-0 on Monday and 2-1 on Tuesday, to drop their overall May record to 16-12. The Orioles are still breathing down their necks, and the Yankees — and Judge — are finally heating up. The Texas Rangers have looked impressive in the AL West, and the Astros are playing well after scuffling in April. But these Rays are absolutely loaded on offense, McClanahan is 8-0 with a 1.97 ERA and Cash certainly seems to usually get the best out of his bullpens.
The Rays are 39-18, on pace for 113 wins, and they proved in May that they’re the best team in baseball as we start the summer.
Beginning with snow in South Bend, the College Football Playoff made its on-campus debut this weekend. The scenes have not disappointed.
Up next is the quarterfinal round, which features four games played at traditional postseason sites: the Rose Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Sugar Bowl and Peach Bowl. Much like the first round, the quarterfinals will span two days. No. 3 Boise State kicks things off and will make its first-ever CFP appearance — albeit in a very familiar game, the Fiesta Bowl, where 18 years ago much of the country learned about the Broncos in their unforgettable win against Oklahoma. They’ll face No. 6 Penn State.
The New Year’s Day slate begins with perhaps the most surprising CFP entrant: Arizona State, which was picked to finish last in the 16-team Big 12 and won the league to earn the No. 4 seed. Coach Kenny Dillingham’s Sun Devils will be in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl for the first time since 1970 and will face No. 5 Texas. Up next will be the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential, in which No. 1 seed Oregon, the nation’s only undefeated team this season, will take the field and face No. 8 Ohio State in a highly anticipated rematch. An incredible day finishes up in New Orleans, where No. 2 seed Georgia, the only team in the CFP field to win a national championship in the past four seasons, will face No. 7 Notre Dame at the Allstate Sugar Bowl.
Ten teams are left in the hunt for a national championship, following a season of unpredictability. Here’s a look at the first two quarterfinal matchups and what to expect Dec. 31 and Jan. 1. — Adam Rittenberg
Jump to:
Penn State vs. Boise State
Texas vs. Arizona State
Ohio State vs. Oregon
Notre Dame vs. Georgia
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Boise State
When: Dec. 31, 7:45 p.m. ET. TV: ESPN
What we learned in Round 1: Perhaps we learned Penn State has an elite defense, but that seemed pretty clear before the 38-10 win over SMU in which the D picked off Kevin Jennings three times in the first half, returning two for touchdowns. Moreover, those interceptions were as much a statement about SMU’s incompetence on the execution of those plays as Penn State’s brilliance. Perhaps we learned that, once again, the 106,000-plus fans in Happy Valley can create havoc for opposing teams, but that won’t be an advantage through the rest of the playoff for Penn State. Perhaps we learned coach James Franklin can win a big one. He had been just 5-21 vs. top-12 teams at Penn State entering this year’s playoff. But while SMU might have earned its No. 11 ranking, the talent disparity on the field clearly favored Penn State, and had the Mustangs not imploded of their own accord so early, there might’ve been real hand-wringing over Franklin’s perplexing fourth-down call from his own 20-yard line up 14-0 or the offense’s inability to break big plays against SMU until the score was entirely lopsided. In other words, Penn State’s win was encouraging, because things mostly went right, and the Nittany Lions did what they were supposed to do. But beyond that, an easy victory against an SMU team that helped by beating itself didn’t exactly prove that this year’s Penn State is finally capable of getting over the hump against a genuinely top-tier opponent. The really good news is, the Nittany Lions are going to get at least one more chance to do just that.
X factor: QB Drew Allar. Allar and the Penn State passing game have been a mixed bag over the past two years. The top-line numbers speak for themselves. Allar wins, he doesn’t turn the ball over, and he has moved the ball consistently against lesser competition. But the downfield threat has never quite materialized for Allar, even as the offense’s explosiveness has improved with Andy Kotelnicki calling plays in 2024. Part of that comes from the lack of a true speed demon on the outside, and part of it comes from a game plan built around two talented tailbacks. But there will come a time in these playoffs — and quite possibly against Boise State — when Allar needs to change the dynamic, force a defense to respect the vertical threat and win some battles downfield.
How Penn State wins: It’s unlikely Penn State can completely run back the blueprint for beating SMU, as it’s not often a defense is gifted so many big plays by the opposing quarterback, but the basic framework for a win should look a good bit like what the Nittany Lions did in Round 1. It’s no secret Boise State’s magic is created by tailback Ashton Jeanty, so if Penn State can force the game into Maddux Madsen’s hands instead, there’s reason to think it can cash in on some QB mistakes, just as it did against SMU. Of course, that’s easier said than done. Jeanty has faced his share of stacked boxes this season, so not only does Penn State need to game-plan to stop Jeanty on defense, but Abdul Carter, Dani Dennis-Sutton & Co. have to actually bring down the Heisman Trophy runner-up before he can escape into space. — David Hale
Key player: RB Ashton Jeanty. Jeanty has turned in one of the best seasons college football has ever seen from a running back, rushing for 2,497 yards and 29 touchdowns, to finish second in the Heisman voting. He needs 132 yards to break Barry Sanders’ single-season rushing record, which has stood since 1988 (when bowl stats did not count toward official stats). Jeanty can do it all: get tough yards, break long ones, catch passes. And he has done it as the focal point from opposing defenses in a way few players ever are.
X factor: QB Maddux Madsen. There isn’t really a question of what the Broncos will get from Jeanty. He’s going to deliver when the chances are there and, probably, when they aren’t. In the Mountain West, he was dominant enough to minimize the importance of the passing game. That won’t be the case in this game. The Broncos will need complementary football and Madsen to rise to the occasion. In the regular season, Madsen did an excellent job protecting the football — he threw 29 touchdowns to just three interceptions — and that has to be the case against Penn State. The Nittany Lions terrorized SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings, and SMU never stood a chance with his poor performance.
How Boise State wins: When the Broncos lost by three at Oregon in September, they went toe-to-toe with the Ducks from start to finish. That performance earned them a lot of credibility with the selection committee and is perhaps the blueprint for how to advance. The key part here is not falling behind early. They never trailed by more than a score against Oregon, and that allowed Jeanty to stay as involved as possible. He’s going to see loaded boxes, as usual, but the opposing talent level is much higher than anything the Broncos have seen since Oregon. If Boise State can hang on to the ball and avoid third-and-long, it will have a puncher’s chance. — Kyle Bonagura
When: Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ET. TV: ESPN
What we learned in Round 1: Texas can morph into whatever form necessary to advance. Quinn Ewers started 8-for-8, but he cooled off after a ball bounced off DeAndre Moore Jr.’s hands and turned into an interception. But the running game took over Saturday for the Longhorns. After running for a total of 60 yards in two losses to Georgia this year, the Longhorns had two 100-yard rushers against Clemson, just the fourth pair of running backs to top the century mark in the playoff. Jaydon Blue, who had 38- and 77-yard touchdown runs — the second the Longhorns’ longest run of the season — added some explosiveness to an offense that has been methodical all season. This Texas team has dimensions where it can shift gears.
X factor: Texas tight end Gunnar Helm is a reliable security blanket for Ewers and the Longhorns, catching a touchdown with 33 seconds left in the first half, and three of his other five catches went for first downs, all coming on first down. The threat of Helm on early downs over the middle softens up looks for the rest of the offense. The 6-5, 250-pound senior is now first in Longhorns history in catches by a tight end and second in yards and touchdowns by a tight end in a season.
How Texas wins: Run the ball and shut down Cam Skattebo. The Texas pass defense was gashed by Clemson at times, giving up three passing TDs after surrendering only four all season, but without Jordyn Tyson, the Sun Devils might not have enough weapons to keep spreading out the nation’s best pass defense. If Texas can contain Skattebo (in the passing game, too) and feed its own running backs behind a strong offensive line, the Longhorns can stifle the Sun Devils and milk the clock while making them play from behind. — Dave Wilson
Key player: RB Cam Skattebo. What is not to love about the way Skattebo plays? His emergence became one of the best storylines of the season, as he ended up finishing fifth in the Heisman voting. He rushed for 1,568 yards and 19 touchdowns while adding 506 yards and three touchdowns receiving — the only player in the country with 1,000-plus yards rushing and 400-plus yards receiving (even with one missed game). As if that weren’t impressive enough, the last player to hit those marks was Christian McCaffrey in 2015. Skattebo got better as the season progressed — and his performance in the Big 12 championship game speaks to that. He was named Most Outstanding Player of the game after scoring three touchdowns (two rushing, one receiving), with 208 yards of total offense.
X factor: DB Xavion Alford. It is hard to call one of the best defensive players in the Big 12 an X factor, but so much of the focus on the Sun Devils has been on their offense that Alford deserves some of the spotlight — and he is likely to have an opportunity to come up big. An All-Big 12 first-team selection, Alford has been the model of consistency and an ironman of sorts. He played the fourth-most snaps in coverage in the Big 12 this season (424, 33rd among all FBS players) and allowed just seven receptions, the third fewest in FBS (minimum 300 coverage snaps). Teams have learned to not throw his way — he has been targeted just 17 times this season. As a result, he has allowed only 76 yards in coverage, fourth lowest among FBS players.
How Arizona State wins: Texas presents the biggest, most physical challenge up front that Arizona State has faced this season. The Longhorns completely owned Clemson at the line of scrimmage in their first-round game, so to defeat them, Arizona State will have to match or beat that physicality — and force Ewers into making mistakes. We all know what Skattebo can do, but Texas ranks as one of the best defenses in the country — so keeping that group off-balance is going to be key. Sam Leavitt has shown incredible poise as the starting quarterback, but the offensive line is going to have to make sure to keep Texas at bay so he does not get rattled. — Andrea Adelson
When: Jan. 1, 5 p.m. ET. TV: ESPN
What we learned in Round 1: Despite falling to Michigan, Ohio State is plenty capable of winning the national championship. The Buckeyes bounced back in a big way, throttling one of the SEC’s top teams all year in Tennessee. Ohio State jumped to a 21-0 lead in the first quarter and never looked back. Wide receivers Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka got open at will, and quarterback Will Howard put the ball on the money. Defensively, linebacker Cody Simon set a physical tone, cracking Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava‘s helmet on the opening drive with a devastating hit. It’s hard to see anyone else in the playoff defeating this version of the Buckeyes.
X factor: The Volunteers simply couldn’t cover Smith, who ignited the Ohio State scoring barrage with a 37-yard scoring grab on the opening possession. Ohio State curiously gave Smith only two targets in the Michigan loss, with both coming in the third quarter, resulting in just one catch for 3 yards. This time around, offensive coordinator Chip Kelly’s game plan against Tennessee clearly was to get the Big Ten Freshman of the Year and Wide Receiver of the Year involved early and often. The Buckeyes have capable veteran playmakers (Egbuka, TreVeyon Henderson, Quinshon Judkins), but Ohio State’s offense is at its most dangerous when Smith is touching the ball.
How Ohio State wins: In their first meeting, the Buckeyes allowed Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel to operate with a clean pocket (no sacks, only two QB hurries). The Heisman Trophy finalist made them play with 341 passing yards, highlighted by several completions downfield and two touchdowns on the way to the 32-31 victory. As the Tennessee game illustrated, Ohio State has the pass rushers — notably Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau — to overwhelm the opposing quarterback. Getting to Gabriel in the rematch will be paramount for the Buckeyes. — Jake Trotter
Key player: QB Dillon Gabriel. This is why Gabriel left Oklahoma and made his way to Eugene, to play in games like this. The fifth-year senior will lead Oregon into the Rose Bowl with a chance to stay undefeated and get one step closer to his ultimate goal of winning a national championship. Only Shedeur Sanders had a better completion percentage than Gabriel this season, an impressive feat when you consider this is his first year in the Ducks’ offense. Gabriel fit in seamlessly into offensive coordinator Will Stein’s unit and has produced his best games when Oregon has needed him the most — 341 yards and two touchdowns against Ohio State and 283 yards and four touchdowns in the Big Ten title game against Penn State. For Oregon to advance, Gabriel will need to not just replicate those kinds of performances, but likely dig deeper for more.
X factor: DE Jordan Burch. Oregon’s defense hasn’t exactly lacked for much given its depth and talent, but Burch has been a force. Despite missing four games with an injury, he has been able to tally 8.5 sacks (20th in the country), including a 2.5-sack outing against Washington in the regular-season finale. Having an extended rest period between the Big Ten title game and the Rose Bowl is a boon for a player like Burch, who could single-handedly tilt the game in the Ducks’ favor by wreaking havoc in the opposing team’s backfield.
How Oregon wins: The Ducks have the benefit (or the curse, depending on how you look at it) no other team in the quarterfinals has: They’ve already beaten their opponent once. Against the Buckeyes in October, Oregon fought fire with fire, out-gaining, outmatching and ultimately outscoring Ohio State by a single point in Eugene, thanks to a handful of explosive plays, fewer penalties and winning the turnover battle (2-0). The margin between these two teams is already slim and on a neutral site, Oregon will have to be more explosive, more disciplined and simply better — especially on defense, where they allowed 467 total yards — to be able to beat a tough opponent twice. The way the playoff bracket shook out is not how the No. 1 seed Ducks would have likely preferred, but what we get as a result is a rematch that could provide us with an all-time classic between arguably the two best teams in the country this year. It’s only fitting that the setting will be the Rose Bowl. — Paolo Uggetti
When: Jan. 1, 8:45 p.m. ET. TV: ESPN
What we learned in Round 1: Notre Dame has a championship-level defense with stars at all three levels. Safety Xavier Watts won the Bronko Nagurski Award in 2023, but he’s actually even better this season and showed why against Indiana with 10 tackles and an interception. Jaiden Ausberry led a playmaking group of linebackers and Rylie Mills created havoc up front, as Notre Dame flexed on third down (7 of 13 conversions). Notre Dame’s offense isn’t always the most fluid unit, but with so many running options, chunk plays are always possible, and Jeremiyah Love can deliver them, as he showed with a 98-yard touchdown, the longest play in CFP history.
X factor: WR Jordan Faison, a standout lacrosse player thrust into action at wide receiver in 2023 because of attrition, has become a sneaky good target for quarterback Riley Leonard. Despite missing three early-season games with a sprained ankle, Faison has made multiple catches in every contest he has appeared in, and he had a career-high seven receptions for 89 yards against Indiana. “He’s a playmaker, man,” coach Marcus Freeman said. The sophomore also has a knack for shining in the postseason, as he earned Sun Bowl MVP honors last year with 115 receiving yards and a touchdown against Oregon State. Notre Dame can’t beat Georgia strictly with its run game, and it will need wideouts such as Faison to make notable contributions.
How Notre Dame wins: The Irish must harass Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton, likely filling in for injured starter Carson Beck, just as they did Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke on Friday. Notre Dame’s defense, which has carried the team much of the season, recorded 10 tackles for loss and three sacks against Indiana and rarely let the Hoosiers operate on schedule. The Irish also need to replicate the offensive balance they showed against Indiana while being a bit more consistent on the ground. Remove Love’s 98-yard touchdown, and Notre Dame had 95 net rushing yards on 34 carries. Notre Dame also must play a cleaner game on special teams after having a field goal attempt blocked and an onside kick recovered by Indiana late in the game. — Rittenberg
Key player: QB Gunner Stockton. With Bulldogs starter Carson Beck probably sidelined for the CFP because of an elbow injury on his throwing arm, they’ll turn to Stockton, who is expected to make his first start in the Sugar Bowl. Stockton completed 12 of 16 passes for 71 yards with no touchdowns and an interception in Georgia’s 22-19 victory over Texas in the SEC championship game. He came off the bench to rally the Bulldogs back from a 6-3 deficit at the half. The third-year sophomore has completed 78.1% of his attempts for 206 yards in parts of three games in 2024. Stockton is more of a runner than Beck, but he has far less experience. At Rabun County High School, Stockton had 13,652 career passing yards and 177 passing touchdowns to go with 4,372 rushing yards and 77 rushing touchdowns in his four-year career. He set Georgia state high school records for career passing touchdowns, passing yards and rushing touchdowns.
X factor: RB Trevor Etienne. The Florida transfer returned from a nearly monthlong absence because of a rib injury and ran for 94 yards with two scores in the SEC championship game. He ran for 87 yards with three touchdowns in a 30-15 victory over the Longhorns in the regular season. Etienne can become a big safety valve for Stockton because of his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield — he has 28 receptions for 168 yards. Etienne is also a more-than-capable blocker, which will be important if Notre Dame’s defense decides to dial up the heat on Stockton. The Irish are 39th in run defense in the FBS (133 yards per game), and they held Indiana to only 63 yards in the first round.
How Georgia wins: With Stockton stepping under center, the Bulldogs are going to need their defense to rise up big time. This hasn’t been Georgia’s best defense under coach Kirby Smart; it ranks 21st in scoring defense (20.4 points), 36th against the run (127.8 yards) and 35th in total defense (334.8 yards). The defense has played well in some of Georgia’s biggest games, including wins over Texas and Tennessee. Linebackers Smael Mondon Jr. and Jalon Walker will need to control Notre Dame’s running game, and they’ll need to force the Irish into a couple of turnovers. — Mark Schlabach
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Dave Wilson, ESPN Staff Writer
AUSTIN, Texas — Coach Steve Sarkisian said he had a simple message for his offensive line and running backs after Texas‘ SEC title game loss to Georgia, the Longhorns’ second loss to the Bulldogs this season.
“Run to win.”
Texas ran for just 60 yards in the two games against Georgia — 29 in a 30-15 defeat in Austin in October and 31 in a 22-19 overtime loss two weeks ago.
On Saturday, in the first round of the expanded College Football Playoff, the Longhorns ran for a season-high 292 yards in a 38-24 win over Clemson. Now, they will run all the way back to Atlanta, the site of that second Georgia loss, with a quarterfinal trip to the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl to face Arizona State on Jan. 1.
“We needed to run the football to win this game,” Sarkisian said. “We’re going to need to run the football to advance in these playoffs. That’s what playoff football’s about.”
Running back Jaydon Blue, who struggled with an ankle injury early in the season and missed the UTSA game, reeled off 38- and 77-yard scoring runs, both on audibles called by quarterback Quinn Ewers, who finished 17-of-24 passing for 202 yards and a touchdown with one interception.
Blue, who had lost four fumbles previously in the campaign and was carrying a football around a month ago to highlight ball security after fumbling against Kentucky, had 2 yards on two carries in the two Georgia games. On Saturday, he rushed for a career-high 146 yards, calling it a “sigh of relief.”
“Going back to the SEC championship, we didn’t run the ball well at all,” Blue said. “[Sarkisian] just stayed on us in practice. The O-line, running backs, the whole offense took that in, and we were more physical in practice. He really made a big emphasis on us running the ball.”
And the Longhorns managed it against Clemson despite some key linemen suffering injuries in the game.
Shortly before halftime, center Jake Majors and right tackle Cameron Williams were hurt. Hayden Conner moved from left guard to center, with backup center Cole Hutson playing left guard and Trevor Goosby at right tackle.
Meanwhile, Clemson’s offense was able to press Texas. The Longhorns, which hadn’t allowed more than 350 yards to any team this season, gave up 412 yards, including 336 yards and three touchdowns through the air from Tigers quarterback Cade Klubnik. Texas had allowed just four previous touchdown passes all season.
The contest represented a rematch of the 2020 Texas state championship game between Ewers, who was born in San Antonio, and Klubnik, an Austin native playing against several former high school teammates on the Longhorns squad.
Texas safety Michael Taaffe, one of Klubnik’s best friends, said after Saturday’s game that the signal-caller posed challenges that the Longhorns hadn’t previously seen this season.
“When you look across the sideline, no matter how close you are with the other opponent, they’re your opponent,” Taaffe said of Klubnik. “We were definitely sharing words back and forth. So, that was fun. But then, at the end of the game, it’s all love. He had a great game. … He helped us get ready for next Saturday, for sure. So hats off to Cade; he’s a baller.”
Sarkisian said this team has proved to him it is versatile and resilient.
“I don’t know if this was our best game defensively, but when we had to have it, they made those plays. To me, that’s a sign of a great defense,” Sarkisian said.
And after Clemson rallied from a 31-10 deficit to make it 31-24 after Klubnik’s third TD throw, Blue was off on that 77-yarder early in the fourth quarter. Sarkisian saw it as a sign of resolve, both for Blue and the Longhorns.
“He was able to continue to work and improve his game and then have a game like this in the playoff,” Sarkisian said of Blue. “Just really proud of him, but I think that is kind of symbolic of everybody on our team. Everybody’s been dealing with stuff.
“I know one thing about our team, it’s that when times get tough, we respond. And Jaydon was a great example of that.”
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