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House prices fell by 5.3% in the year to August – a bigger-than-expected drop, according to Nationwide.

This means the typical home is now worth £14,600 less than 12 months ago – with an average property price of £259,153.

Nationwide’s chief economist, Robert Gardner, says the softening is “not surprising” – with interest rate hikes by the Bank of England sending mortgage payments higher.

Activity in the housing market is currently running well below pre-pandemic levels – with mortgage approvals about 20% below the 2019 average in recent months.

But Mr Gardner struck an upbeat note after Nationwide’s latest House Price Index was released – and said “a relatively soft landing is still achievable.”

He added: “In particular, unemployment is expected to remain low (below 5%) and the vast majority of existing borrowers should be able to weather the impact of higher borrowing costs, given the high proportion on fixed rates, and where affordability testing should ensure that those needing to refinance can afford the higher payments.”

And while activity may remain subdued in the near term, Mr Gardner believes a mix of income growth and lower house prices could improve affordability if mortgage rates cool.

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Andrew Wishart, senior property economist at Capital Economics, believes this “marks the start of a significant further drop in house prices”.

He believes that, by mid-2024, house prices will be 10.5% below their August 2022 peak – with mortgage rates set to remain between 5.5% and 6% for the next 12 months.

Analysis: For many, house prices can’t fall far enough


Paul Kelso - Health correspondent

Paul Kelso

Business correspondent

@pkelso

The UK housing market has long lost touch with reality – but the recent modest fall in prices, confirmed by the Nationwide house price index figures for August, does follow the logic of economic trends.

After 14 consecutive Bank of England increases pushed the base rate to 5.25% and many mortgages beyond 6%, it would have been a surprise had the housing market not been affected.

While prices have been falling the volume of completions has stalled too, reflecting perhaps that many potential movers are waiting to see where rates will peak before they take the plunge.

For those looking to sell or buy from an existing home the impact will be largely theoretical, with the cost of remortgaging and the swingeing impact of stamp duty far more consequential in decision making.

A drop of more than 5% will be most welcome to first-time buyers, but the benefit will likely be wiped out by the increased cost of the mortgage required to get on the ladder in the first place.

For millions, prices cannot fall far enough to make that first step realistic, the hike in borrowing costs compounding an affordability crisis that has seen the average house price balloon to eight times the average wage in two decades.

According to Nationwide, there was a 25% drop in first-time buyers in the first half of 2023 when compared with 2019.

“A first-time buyer earning the average wage and buying a typical first-time buyer property with a 20% deposit would now see their monthly mortgage payment absorb over 40% of their take-home pay (with a mortgage rate of 6%) – well above the long run average of 29%,” Mr Gardner added.

There has also been a shift in the types of properties being purchased – with a big decline in demand for detached houses as buyers look for smaller, less expensive places.

Additional housing bills are piling more misery on families at a time when the main measure of inflation is easing back from the highs of last winter, when unprecedented energy costs hit Western economies.

The evolving cost of living crisis has squeezed affordability and demand at estate agents – and the Bank wants a wider economic slowdown to help cool the pace of price rises.

Data released by the Bank earlier this week showed that mortgage approvals had dropped by almost 10% last month.

Separate figures from property website Zoopla suggested that the UK was on track for about one million house and flat sales by the end of this year – the lowest level since 2012.

Average rates for two and five-year fixed residential mortgages remain above 6%.

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Renters now in the majority in UK

Higher funding costs for lenders are down to expectations the Bank of England still has some way to go in its battle against inflation.

Financial markets currently expect the Bank’s rate to peak just shy of 6% early next year – from its current level of 5.25%.

Nationwide, like other mortgage lenders in the shifting rate environment, revealed on Thursday that it was reducing some fixed and tracker products by up to 0.15 percentage points from today.

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Octopus COPs £500m financing boost for electric vehicles arm

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Octopus COPs £500m financing boost for electric vehicles arm

The electric vehicle-leasing business which forms part of the same group as Britain’s biggest household energy supplier will on Friday announce a £500m extension to its financing war chest.

Sky News has learnt that Octopus Electric Vehicles (Octopus EV) has struck a deal with lenders including Lloyds Banking Group, Morgan Stanley, and Credit Agricole to take its total funding line to £2bn.

The additional financing paves the way for the expansion of the company’s UK fleet from 40,000 to 75,000 cars, and is an extension to a facility agreed with Lloyds in 2023.

Pic: iStock
Image:
Pic: iStock

Sources said a public announcement would be made at the COP30 climate summit in Brazil.

Last month, EVs accounted for 26% of all new cars in the UK, a record figure, while across Europe, more than 1.7 million EVs were registered in September – a 19% jump from the same month last year.

Octopus EV offers an all-in-one package comprising a leased car, bespoke EV tariffs, home chargers and access to Electroverse, which it describes as Europe’s largest public charging network.

“Electric momentum is surging across the UK and Europe,” said Gurjeet Grewal, CEO of Octopus EV.

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“Every month, thousands more drivers are discovering just how affordable and enjoyable making the switch can be – and this fresh funding from Lloyds, Morgan Stanley and Crédit Agricole will allow us to bring even more zero-emission cars onto UK roads.”

Keir Mather, Minister for Aviation, Maritime and Decarbonisation, said the government had “helped over 30,000 people go electric thanks to our electric car grant since we launched it this summer, saving them cash with discounts of up to £3,750 on new EVs”.

Octopus Energy electric vehicles
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Octopus Energy electric vehicles

“We’re backing people and industry to make the switch with £4.5bn investment, and it’s great to see industry players like Octopus backing the EV revolution and getting more electric cars out on our roads,” Mr Mather added.

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The minister’s comments come, however, amid speculation about a pay-per-mile levy on electric car drivers in Rachel Reeves’s budget later this month.

Octopus’s EV arm also specialises in salary sacrifice schemes, which the chancellor is also reportedly planning to target by reducing or removing tax incentives.

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Professional services chiefs join chorus of opposition to Reeves tax threat

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Professional services chiefs join chorus of opposition to Reeves tax threat

An influential coalition of leaders from Britain’s professional services sector has warned Rachel Reeves that a Budget tax raid on the sector would “stunt growth” in the UK’s faltering economy.

Sky News has obtained a letter sent to the chancellor on Thursday, which was signed by leading figures including the president of The Law Society, the chief executive of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, and the bosses of other leading trade bodies including TheCityUK and the BVCA.

In it, they warn that reported plans to impose employers’ national insurance on limited liability partnerships (LLPs) would damage Britain.

“Such a move would strike at the heart of a sector that is not only growing but actively partnering with government to deliver economic growth,” they wrote.

“Our professional services sector sits among the UK’s global success stories – driving investment, creating jobs, and reinforcing the UK’s reputation as an attractive place to do business.

“Introducing higher taxes on LLPs now would be a misstep and will stunt growth.

“It would undermine the government’s stated ambition to support professional services as a growth partner and send a damaging signal to international investors.

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“At a time when firms are already facing potential major regulatory changes – from anti-money laundering compliance to evolving tax adviser rules – this additional burden risks creating a perfect storm that stifles investment, hiring, and innovation.”

The letter warned that the mooted tax changes would force firms to reconsider their corporate structures, “triggering instability and uncertainty across our economy”.

“Meanwhile, our global competitors – many of whom are actively courting professional services firms – would seize the opportunity to attract talent and capital away from the UK,” it added.

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The letter was also signed by the City of London Law Society and The City of London Corporation.

It has been sent to the chancellor less than two weeks before she delivers her Budget, and adds to the multitude of warnings from across the economy about the levers she intends to pull to plug an estimated £30bn fiscal black hole.

Last week, the Financial Times reported that a potential tax raid on LLPs was likely to be less severe than feared following warnings from senior sector figures.

The Treasury has declined to comment on the prospective move.

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Economy grew by 0.1% in third quarter, official figures show

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Economy grew by 0.1% in third quarter, official figures show

The UK’s economic slowdown gathered further momentum during the third quarter of the year with growth of just 0.1%, according to an early official estimate that makes horrific reading for the chancellor.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a surprise contraction for economic output during September of -0.1% – with some of the downwards pressure being applied by the cyber attack disruption to production at Jaguar Land Rover.

The figures for July-September followed on the back of a 0.3% growth performance over the previous three months and the 0.7% expansion achieved between January and March.

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Growth ‘slightly worse than expected’

The encouraging start to 2025 was soon followed by the worst of Donald Trump’s trade war salvoes and the implementation of budget measures that placed employers on the hook for £25bn of extra taxes.

Economists have blamed those factors since for pushing up inflation and harming investment and employment.

ONS director of economic statistics, Liz McKeown, said: “Growth slowed further in the third quarter of the year with both services and construction weaker than in the previous period. There was also a further contraction in production.

More on Rachel Reeves

“Across the quarter as a whole manufacturing drove the weakness in production. There was a particularly marked fall in car production in September, reflecting the impact of a cyber incident, as well as a decline in the often-erratic pharmaceutical industry.

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What next for the UK economy?

“Services were the main contributor to growth in the latest quarter, with business rental and leasing, live events and retail performing well, partially offset by falls in R&D [research and development] and hair and beauty salons.”

The weaker than expected figures will add fuel to expectations that the Bank of England can cut interest rates at its December meeting after November’s hold.

The vast majority of financial market participants now expect a reduction to 3.75% from 4% on 18 December.

Data earlier this week showed the UK’s unemployment rate at 5% – up from 4.1% when Labour came to power with a number one priority of growing the economy.

Since then, the government’s handling of the economy has centred on its stewardship of the public finances.

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Chancellor questioned by Sky News

The chancellor was accused by business groups of harming private sector investment and employment through hikes to minimum wage levels and employer national insurance contributions.

The Bank has backed the assertion that hiring and staff retention has been hit as a result of those extra costs.

There is also evidence that rising employment costs have been passed on to consumers and contributed to the UK’s stubbornly high rate of inflation – a figure that is now expected to ease considerably in the coming months.

Rachel Reeves has blamed other factors – such as Brexit and the US trade war – for weighing on the economy and leaving her facing a similar black hole to the one she says she inherited from the Conservatives.

Her second budget is due on 26 November.

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She said of the latest economic data: “We had the fastest-growing economy in the G7 in the first half of the year, but there’s more to do to build an economy that works for working people.

“At my budget later this month, I will take the fair decisions to build a strong economy that helps us to continue to cut waiting lists, cut the national debt and cut the cost of living.”

Shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride responded: “Today’s ONS figures show the economy shrank in the latest month, under a Prime Minister and Chancellor who are in office but not in power.”

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