The next US presidential election will take place a year today – and the Democrats think it will be “very close”.
A memo from the party hierarchy is consistent with opinion polls that indicate a close contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the frontrunner to be the Republican nominee.
The president led in Wisconsin, according to the poll for the New York Times and Siena College.
Mr Biden, spending a working weekend at his Rehoboth beach house in Delaware, has been briefed on the Israel/Gaza situation by Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.
How that conflict and the war in Ukraine play into a year of campaigning will depend on their course and consequences.
Biden’s stewardship of US involvement in international conflict will be but one factor influencing the minds of voters, even if it’s lower down a list of campaign issues than the economy, jobs, abortion and US democracy itself.
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Trump & Biden: 2 distinct cases, 1 political wedge
Add all of that to the age of the incumbent and questions about infirmity. Opponents of Donald Trump say he faces similar questions.
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In terms of the strategy of winning an election, Biden’s campaign manager, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, wrote in her election memo that it would mirror the tactics that won in 2020 – to draw a contrast with what she called “MAGA extremism”.
The Make America Great Again movement that once carried Donald Trump to the White House gives him momentum still, in spite of legal travails that see him facing 91 charges across four criminal trials in the coming months.
They come on top of one civil case in which he was found liable for sexual abuse, and another in which he was found liable for fraud, after falsely inflating the value of Trump properties.
What will decide the election outcome?
To explore what might shape the next 12 months, we brought together politicians from both sides of the House of Representatives – Democrat Adam Smith, and Republican Victoria Spartz.
ON ISSUES
Adam Smith: Certainly abortion is a huge issue. The efforts to ban abortion nationwide has certainly motivated a lot of people to vote. That will be a motivating factor. Overall, I think the two biggest issues are going to be the economy and democracy. If Donald Trump is re-elected president, a lot of us are concerned that it will be the end of our democracy and I think people share that concern.
Victoria Spratz: I wish we would spend more time trying to unite and do something good for the country. We’re not dealing with border security. This is a very serious issue. We want to help the rest of the world but we need to keep our republic strong.
ON AGE
Victoria Spratz: People age differently, but I think people can observe and make decisions themselves. Who is much better, who we’ve got, who is affected by age? I don’t have to say, to make a comment on that.
Adam Smith: Trump’s just as old as Biden, like two years short. So age really isn’t a factor in that contest. At this point, I think both Trump and Biden are old, but both of them seem perfectly capable of doing their job. I think it’s the policies that are really going to drive this.
ON INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT
Adam Smith: To be perfectly honest, most elections are about domestic issues. I don’t know that it’s going to have a huge impact. People want to know that there’s stable leadership, but I think they’re going to care a lot more about the economy, about abortion, about the strength of our democracy, about the border. I think those are the issues that are going to drive the election in 2024.
Victoria Spratz: I have to agree that it is going to be a domestic issues. I think Joe Biden has a chance to find common ground on the issues of debt and border security. And it remains to be seen. But if he’s not willing to deal with the domestic issues, I think it’s going to hurt him significantly.
ON TRUMP’S LEGAL TROUBLES
Victoria Spratz: I think American people are getting fed up with that. A lot of his opposition might shoot themselves in the foot and the American people will say “it’s enough” and it actually might help Trump.
Adam Smith: Ultimately. I think it will hurt him. That record is not a good one. Financially, in terms of business, in terms of what he did on the insurrection on January 6, in terms of trying to steal the election in 2020 – I don’t think that helps him in a general election.
ON LEADERSHIP
Victoria Spratz: Trump was much tougher on foreign policy and his toughness brought a lot of deterrence. I think President Biden, he’s not a bad person, but he’s very political. He has very political people around him. So everything is driven by politics. Government takes some backbone and strength. I truly believe we need to have much tougher leadership with dealing with domestic issues, border security, debt and dealing with foreign issues. So, I think Trump would be much stronger if he’s the nominee.
Adam Smith: The greatest strength that the United States of America has – what we have over China and Russia – is our system of partnerships and alliances. And Trump, while he was president, tried to break up pretty much every single one of those. He wanted us out of NATO. He wanted us to stop supporting South Korea. He wanted us to be “America First” and push the rest of the world away. I think that makes it more dangerous, not less.
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Hundreds of homes have been damaged and nearly 10,000 are without power after a tornado smashed through parts of Omaha, in the US state of Nebraska.
A number of tornadoes were reported in the state but the worst hit the suburbs to the northwest of the city, which has a population of 485,000.
The homes damaged were mostly in the Elkhorn area, police said, and emergency workers were going door-to-door to help people trapped in the debris.
Elkhorn residents Pat and Kim Woods said they took shelter when the tornado was about 200 yards away.
“We could hear it coming through,” Mr Woods said.
“When we came up, our fence was gone and we looked to the northwest and the whole neighbourhood’s gone.”
Mrs Woods added: “The whole neighbourhood just to the north of us is pretty flattened.”
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But while some homes in the area were destroyed, others appeared untouched.
There were no reports of deaths but a number of people suffered minor injuries, according to Omaha Police Chief Todd Schmaderer, who added: “People had warnings of this and that saved lives.”
One of the other tornados passed through parts of Eppley Airfield, the city’s airport, which was closed for almost an hour.
Passengers were sent to storm shelters, according to Omaha Airport Authority Chief Strategy Officer Steve McCoy.
The terminal was not affected but other airport buildings “sustained damage”.
The airport has now reopened, although flight delays are expected late into Friday.
The tornado then crossed the Missouri River into Iowa, where damage reports are still coming through.
Daniel Fienhold, who owns a steakhouse in Crescent, Iowa, said he watched the weather from outside with his daughter and employees.
“It started raining, and then it started hailing, and then all the clouds started to kind of swirl and come together, and as soon as the wind started to pick up, that’s when I headed for the basement, but we never saw it,” he said.
Three workers at an industrial plant were injured when another tornado struck near the Nebraska city of Lincoln on Friday afternoon.
The building collapsed with around 70 people inside and several had to be rescued from the debris.
The weekend is not likely to bring any relief – The Weather Service has issued tornado watches across parts of Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma and Texas.
Student protests against Israel’s war in Gaza continue to spread across the US, following last week’s arrest of more than 100 demonstrators at Columbia University.
There have been nearly 550 protest-related arrests in the past week at major US universities, according to a tally by news agency Reuters.
The students want universities to cut ties with companies helping Israel’s war in Gaza and, in some cases, with Israel itself.
Some universities have called in police to end the demonstrations, resulting in clashes and arrests, while others appear to be biding their time as the academic semester enters its final days.
The University of Southern California cancelled its main graduation ceremony, set for 10 May, after the arrests of 93 people at the Los Angeles campus on Wednesday.
At Boston’s Emerson College, 108 people were arrested overnight with video showing students linking arms to resist officers, who then moved forcefully through the crowd, throwing some students to the ground.
Student protester Ocean Muir said: “There were just more cops on all sides.
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“It felt like we were being slowly pushed in and crushed.”
She said police lifted her by her arms and legs to carry her away and she was charged with trespassing and disorderly conduct.
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At Emory University’s Atlanta campus, 28 people were detained and the local branch of activist group Jewish Voice For Peace said police used tear gas and tasers on protesters.
Police there admitted using “chemical irritants” but denied using rubber bullets.
Cheryl Elliott, Emory’s vice president for public safety, said the aim was to clear the area of a “disruptive encampment while holding individuals accountable to the law” but human rights groups questioned the “apparent use of excessive force” against free speech.
Charges were dropped, meanwhile, against 46 of the 60 people detained by police at the University of Texas.
At Indiana University Bloomington, police with shields and batons shoved into a line of protesters, arresting 33 people.
At City College of New York, police officers retreated from protests, to cheers from the hundreds of students gathered on the lawn on the Harlem campus.
At California State Polytechnic University in Humboldt, students have been barricaded in a campus building since Monday, with staff trying to negotiate.
At University of Connecticut one protester was arrested and tents torn down, while protests continued at Stanford University and the New Jersey campus of Princeton University.
Police cleared tents and arrested more than 100 people last week but students put the tents up again in an area where graduation ceremonies will be held in a few weeks.
The administration has given protesters until Friday to leave.
There have been accusations that some pro-Palestinian protesters have harassed or abused Jewish students but protesters blame outsiders trying to infiltrate and malign their movement.
Protest leaders admit there has been abuse directed at Jewish students but insist the protests are not antisemitic.
Some of the universities have seen counter-protests from Israel supporters.
The hearing at the Supreme Court concerned the 6 January riots, election subversion and Trump’s alleged involvement. It is a crime against democracy, at the serious end of the legal jeopardy he faces.
His lawyers argued he should be shielded by immunity from prosecution for what he did while acting as president.
The prosecution’s case is that he was acting as a private citizen, not in an official capacity.
Trump wasn’t present at the hearing in Washington DC, but he will have liked what he heard.
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The prevailing legal assessment is that discussions with the nine-judge panel indicate that, while they didn’t necessarily agree with his argument for immunity, they have enough questions to delay the prosecution further.
A majority appear to think that presidents have some immunity from criminal prosecution for their official actions, even if the exact parameters are unclear.
What is clear is that if the trial court is instructed to determine which of Trump’s allegedly illegal acts qualify for immunity as official acts, it will be an extended process that could easily push the trial beyond the November election.
Such a scenario would suit Trump. The less criminal exposure he has before America votes, the better for him.
If he can push the trial past November, and win back the White House, he can use the power of office to make the charges go away.
The New York hush money trial is the only one of four criminal prosecutions to have begun.
The Supreme Court appears set to shorten the odds on it being the only one before America goes to the polls.
It is the pressing matter of the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth about the man who would be president, and it’s a race against time.
This stress test of the fundamentals of American democracy and rule of law gets ever more stressful.