Votes are being counted in the Kingswood and Wellingborough by-elections, where Labour will be looking to capitalise on the UK entering a recession to inflict a double defeat on Rishi Sunak.
The Tories are defending traditionally safe seats in South Gloucestershire and Northamptonshire, following the departures of Chris Skidmore and Peter Bone, respectively.
But the polls in both seats opened on the same day the UK economy officially entered recession, throwing into question Mr Sunak’s pledge to grow the economy and handing Labour the attack line of “Rishi’s recession”.
However, the Labour Party is enduring trouble of its own following the fallout over its candidate in the Rochdale by-election, which takes place later this month.
Conservatives have privately admitted that their party is braced for defeats in both by-elections, given the circumstances in which both Mr Bone and Mr Skidmore left parliament.
The Conservatives said after the polls closed that they have fought “robust campaigns” in both seats – but that winning was “always going to be hard”. They added that the government rarely wins by-elections.
More on Conservatives
Related Topics:
If the Tories lose both seats, it would signal a new post-war record of the most Conservative seats lost in by-elections in one parliament – overtaking the Major administration between 1992 and 1997.
On the Labour side, Pat McFadden, the party’s national campaign coordinator, said both seats were beyond their target list – and it will “be some time before we know the results”.
Mr Skidmore quit his Kingswood seat, where the Tory majority is 11,220, over what he believed to be the government’s scaling back of green policies, specifically its plans to offer new licences for oil and gas drilling in the North Sea.
At the next election, the Kingswood seat will cease to exist owing to the boundary review.
It is understood the Conservatives see both by-elections as the “worst possible circumstances” that are not comparable to a general election. They hope the swing away from the party will be smaller than the losses they endured in Tamworth and Selby last year, where the swing was more than 20% towards Labour.
Neither Mr Sunak nor any high-profile cabinet ministers have been seen in either Wellingborough or Kingswood in an indication of how the Tories are prioritising resources into mayoral contests in May and the general election, which is expected in the autumn.
The Tories are also braced for a good performance of rivals the Reform Party, which is expecting its best-ever result in Wellingborough.
Sources in the Reform Party have said they are aiming for their polling average of around 10%.
Labour, meanwhile, has sought to manage expectations given it hasn’t held both seats for a number of years.
‘Rishi’s recession’
A recession is defined as two consecutive three-month periods where the economy contracts rather than grows.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that gross domestic product (GDP), a major measure of economic growth, shrank 0.3% between October and December.
In response, the chancellor pointed to the fact the rate of inflation remained at 4% yesterday, despite forecasters predicting a rise.
Jeremy Hunt said high inflation remained “the single biggest barrier to growth” and added: “Low growth is not a surprise.”
He insisted there were “signs the British economy is turning a corner” and the UK must “stick to the plan – cutting taxes on work and business to build a stronger economy”.
But shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said that while the GDP figures are “provisional and may change”, it was “absolutely clear that Britain remains trapped in a spiral of economic decline”.
Ms Reeves said the prime minister’s promise to grow the economy had been “broken” and he had “now put the economy into reverse”.
“This is Rishi’s recession and it is the British people who will pay the price,” she said.
While Labour is still 19% ahead in the polls, according to Sky News’ poll tracker, the party has been enduring trouble of its own after it was forced to withdraw support of its candidate in the Rochdale by-election of 29 February over alleged antisemitic remarks.
While Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer argued he had taken “decisive action” concerning Mr Ali, the Tories have criticised the fact that Labour only withdrew support for Mr Ali in Rochdale when further comments came to light.
Labour was then rocked by revelations that another parliamentary candidate and former MP, Graham Jones, allegedly referred to “f***ing Israel” during the same meeting where Mr Ali made his initial comments – resulting in his suspension.
Spreaker
This content is provided by Spreaker, which may be using cookies and other technologies.
To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies.
You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable Spreaker cookies or to allow those cookies just once.
You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options.
Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to Spreaker cookies.
To view this content you can use the button below to allow Spreaker cookies for this session only.
Voters began casting their ballots in Thursday’s by-elections at 7am, with polling stations shutting their doors at 10pm.
Both results are expected in the early hours of Friday morning – and Sky News will bring you the news, analysis and reaction on a special programme from midnight, as well as online in the Politics Hub.
A Jewish campaign group has cancelled today’s Walk Together demonstration amid safety concerns, as the Met Police says the risk of disorder from a pro-Palestinian march is not high enough to seek a ban.
Thousands had been expected to attend the event in central London as part of the Campaign Against Antisemitism (CAA) event, which would have coincided with today’s pro-Palestinian march.
The CAA said it cancelled the event, where people would have walked “where they please”, after receiving “numerous threats” and identifying “hostile actors (who) seem to have intended to come to any meeting locations that we announced”.
It added: “The risk to the safety of those who wished to walk openly as Jews in London… as part of this initiative has therefore become too great.
“We are no less angry about these marches than our Jewish community and its allies. We want to walk.”
The CAA said it had suggested “concrete measures” to government aimed at changing how the pro-Palestinian protests are policed.
It highlighted concerns over antisemitic chants, inflammatory placards, and instances of glorifying terrorism, as well as incidents of violence, including attacks on police officers.
More on Israel-hamas War
Related Topics:
“Police have told us that they intend to handle the march no differently from the passive way that they have become accustomed to over the course of more than six months,” the group added.
But the Met’s assistant commissioner, Matt Twist, said the force aimed to police “without fear or favour”, adding that the impact of the weekly pro-Palestinian protests was “felt widely” but had been a “particular cause of fear and uncertainty in Jewish communities”.
Advertisement
Mr Twist added that pro-Palestinian protests had “never” reached the threshold where it was a “risk of serious public disorder”.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
13:02
Extended video of ‘openly Jewish’ row
He said: “The only legal route to ban a march is if there is a risk of serious public disorder – that is rioting or serious violence that could not be dealt with by other restrictions or conditions.
“We have never got close to that threshold on these Palestinian Solidarity Campaign (PSC) marches to date.”
The CAA had announced its Walk Together after its chief executive, Gideon Falter, was prevented from crossing a road near a pro-Palestinian protest by a police officer last week because he was “openly Jewish”.
Footage showed a tense, lengthy stand-off between police and Mr Falter as one Met officer described his presence as “antagonising”.
The campaigner then spoke to another officer who said if he remained in the area, he would be arrested.
After the incident, Mr Falter was critical of the Metand said there were “no-go zones for Jews”, while Scotland Yard apologised twice for the officer’s choice of words.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
0:39
Standoff between protesters in London
The PSC protest today, which organisers claim could attract “hundreds of thousands” of protesters, will take place on a pre-agreed route.
Simultaneously, a separate demonstration arranged by the pro-Israel Enough is Enough group will go ahead following a route parallel to the PSC march.
The Met Police said 450 arrests have been made since the pro-Palestinian marches began, with 193 of those being for antisemitic offences, the majority involving placards, chanting or expressions of hate speech.
The cost of policing the protests stands at approximately £38.5m, the Met added.
The King’s constitutional work has continued, but the public outings were stopped.
His family has stepped up to support him, and protocols were in place should the need arise.
But it has been an incredibly challenging time for the House of Windsor.
News of the Princess of Wales’s cancer diagnosis a double blow for the family.
There remains a lot of uncertainty; the King won’t return to full duties, and his engagements will be adapted to reduce the risk while he recovers. There’s also no confirmation yet about the big set piece events like Trooping the Colour or an overseas state visit.
But this is a significant moment. And the King’s return to public work will start with a personally poignant visit, as he and the Queen meet patients and staff at a cancer treatment centre.
The deaths of the Reading terror attack victims were “probably avoidable” and contributed to by the failings of multiple agencies, an inquest has found.
Friends James Furlong, 36, Joseph Ritchie-Bennett, 39, and David Wails, 49, were stabbed to death by Khairi Saadallah, now 29, in Forbury Gardens on 20 June 2020.
Three other people were also injured before Saadallah, who shouted “Allahu Akbar” (God is greatest), threw away the eight-inch knife and ran off, pursued by an off-duty police officer.
Saadallah was handed a whole-life sentence at the Old Bailey in January 2021 after pleading guilty to the three murders and three attempted murders.
Judge Coroner Sir Adrian Fulford today delivered his findings on the killings of history teacher Mr Furlong, pharmaceuticals manager Mr Ritchie-Bennett, and scientist Mr Wails.
Mr Fulford said the deaths “probably would have been avoidable” if the mental health service had given “greater priority to stabilising [Saadallah] and securing access to long-term psychological therapy”.
He added that if his “extremist risk had been better analysed”, Saadallah would probably then have been recalled to custody the day before the attacks, meaning they would never have happened.
More on Berkshire
Related Topics:
The coroner said the deaths of the three men were “contributed to by the failings of multiple agencies”.
Saadallah, who came to the country as a teenager from Libya, where he was trained to fight as a child soldier for a group now banned as a terrorist organisation in the UK, had a long history of offending and was released from prison on licence just 15 days before the attack.
The inquest heard six weeks of evidence looking at his management while he was in jail and on probation, his mental health and the assessment and response to his risk of terrorism.
The Old Bailey heard the Home Office dealt with Saadallah with “woeful inadequacy”, while he was referred to the government’s Prevent de-radicalisation programme four times.
MI5 “triaged” him on four separate occasions, once opening a “lead investigation”, but the security service said they found no evidence he planned to leave the country or commit an attack.
Saadallah had a string of previous convictions for offences including violence and possession of a knife, and spent repeated spells in jail between 2015 and 2020.
Prison intelligence reports showed a pattern of fighting, threats to staff, self-harming and suspected drug use, along with references to extremism.
A counsellor said she “harassed” mental health services to examine him in the year before the killings, while one probation officer broke down in court as she recalled unknowingly “managing an unconvicted murderer”.
The inquest also heard Thames Valley Police officers did not find a knife at Saadallah’s home during a “welfare check” the day before the attack after they were not told he was threatening to harm himself and others.
‘Catastrophically failed’
Mr Furlong’s father Gary said the victims’ families had listened with “shock and utter disappointment” to the evidence, which had led them to “fundamentally question” whether their faith in authorities to protect their loved ones was misplaced.
“Our boys did not stand a chance,” he said.
Dr Wails’s brother Andrew said UK state agencies had “catastrophically failed” in their duty to protect the public from Saadallah and that the attack “destroyed our lives”.
Calling Saadallah a “cowardly terrorist”, Andrew Wails said: “[He] had been a member of a proscribed terrorist group and murdered people, he confessed to throwing grenades at people in public places in Libya, yet he was let into the UK and allowed to remain here.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:18
‘The state catastrophically failed in its duty’
Parallels to London Bridge stabbings
Nick Harborne, chief of Reading Refugee Support Group, also said the stabbings “could have been avoided” having warned various bodies about Saadallah months before the attack.
When the news of the stabbings broke, Mr Harborne “instantly knew it was Saadallah”.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
2:26
Reading attack ‘could have been avoided’
He said he had tried to communicate with Prevent, community mental health services, and the Probation Service, to notify them of Saadallah’s “potential for violence”.
Mr Harborne likened Saadallah’s trajectory to the terrorist Usman Khan who committed the 2019 London Bridge stabbings, and he referred to the attack in his communications with the various agencies.
“There is stuff we could all have done better… The tragedy didn’t have to happen,” he said.
Assistant Chief Constable Tim Metcalfe of Counter Terrorism Policing South said was “still work to do” to address the issues surrounding the case.
He added: “In this moment it is also important to reflect on the terrorist threat that we in UK policing and our partners face. It is significant and continually evolving.
“Many of the cases we are working on now involve people with complex mental health and social needs. We also are seeing more individuals with mixed or unclear ideology, who can be more difficult to assess and manage.”
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.
Please refresh the page for the fullest version.
You can receive breaking news alerts on a smartphone or tablet via the Sky News app. You can also follow @SkyNews on X or subscribe to our YouTube channel to keep up with the latest news.