British firms’ exports are almost certainly bolstering Russia’s war machine in Ukraine, Sky data analysis finds
British companies are exporting hundreds of millions of pounds of equipment and machinery which almost certainly ends up in Russia, undermining the official sanctions regime and bolstering Vladimir Putin’s war machine, according to data analysis from Sky News.
The items – which include drone equipment, optical supplies and heavy machinery – are being sent to countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia, including Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, Uzbekistan and others, from where they are understood to be forwarded on to Russia.
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The numbers show that despite the sharp fall in the flow of goods to Russia, following the imposition of trade sanctions after its invasion of Ukraine two years ago, large volumes of sensitive, “dual use” British goods are still finding their way to Moscow.
The analysis underlines the scale of Britain’s participation in a shadow economy which helps keep Russia’s military supplied with parts and hardware for the weaponry it uses against Ukraine
Flows of British goods to Russia itself have fallen by 74% since the outbreak of war, following the imposition of sanctions. The vast majority of exports still flowing to Russia are food, medical products or other humanitarian items.
Flows of heavy machinery, electrical equipment and cars have dropped to nearly zero.
Those figures imply the sanctions regime has been incredibly successful, and indeed, a government spokesperson said: “We have implemented the most severe package of economic sanctions ever imposed on a major economy.”
However, closer examination of Britain’s official trade statistics provides an alternative prism.
They show that while UK exports to Russia have fallen sharply, UK exports to a suite of former Soviet satellite states – from Uzbekistan to Georgia – have risen at an unprecedented rate.
British exports to Kyrgyzstan, the small former Soviet satellite state, have risen at a breakneck rate, by over 1,100%. These exports are dominated by the heavy machinery and vehicles which can no longer be sent directly to Russia.
A Europe-wide problem
According to Robin Brooks, former chief economist of financial body the IIF, this is something which has been going on for some time, with other European countries, most notably Germany and Poland, also sending large quantities of hardware to Russia via these Caucasus and Central Asian states.
“They’re clearly getting an order from somewhere that is a Russian satellite that happens to be domiciled in one of these Central Asian countries,” he said.
“What happens then? Maybe there’s plausible deniability, maybe they know… all we know for sure is that the rise in export volumes that is happening is completely insane, and is inconsistent with any underlying data in these countries.
“So the only reasonable explanation is: Russia.
“From the Western European and especially the EU side, I would say, this has been going on for a while. It is at this point widely known in Brussels, and I think there is a key question as to why nothing is being done at a central EU level to stop this?”
British officials argue that they are constantly attempting to tighten the UK sanctions regime. A spokesperson told Sky News: “We also recently announced the creation of a new Office of Trade Sanctions Implementation to strengthen our enforcement of sanctions.
“Any non-compliance with these tough sanctions is a serious offence and punishable through large financial penalties or criminal prosecution.”
Exports to other Russia-adjacent states
However, the scale and breadth of the trade is striking. UK export volumes haven’t just spiked to Kyrgyzstan. They are also up nearly as sharply to Armenia, which, according to Mr Brooks, has recorded a sharp increase in its onward goods exports to Russia.
Doubly worrying is the fact that among the goods being sent to these countries are significant quantities of items considered “dual use” – which can be repurposed into weaponry.
Found in battlefield remains of Russian weapons
The European Union has a list of 45 categories of goods – “common high priority items” as they call them – which have been found in battlefield remains of Russian weapons.
Sky News analysis shows that British exports to four Caucasus and Central Asian states of these goods, which have been documented as being used to kill Ukrainian citizens – have risen by over 500% since the outbreak of war.
The analysis shows that by far and away the biggest category of goods being sent to these four Caucasus and Central Asian nations was “parts of aeroplanes, helicopters or unmanned aircraft” – in other words, equipment which can be used to make drones and other aeronautic units.
British companies have exported £6m worth of these goods to the four countries, above what they historically tend to export to them.
Other items being sent by UK exporters include data processing machines, aeronautic navigation equipment and radio navigation aids.
According to Tom Keatinge of RUSI: “It’s absolutely a red flag if you’re producing that kind of equipment… and you’ve got this big spike in exports to Kyrgyzstan.
“You’ve surely got to stop and ask yourself: why is that? Am I indirectly resourcing the Russian military? And clearly you don’t want to be doing that. And indeed, in doing that, you’re probably in breach of sanctions.
“The tragedy is that whenever the Ukrainians dissect a drone, or a cruise missile or communications equipment that they get their hands on, there are components in those bits of equipment that come from the EU, that come from the UK and come from the US, and have been manufactured since February 2022.
“So these are fresh exports, these are not legacy exports.”
Countries in South and Southeast Asia have been coping with a weeks-long heatwave which has seen record temperatures sweep parts of the region.
Pupils in the Philippines, India and Bangladesh have been told to stay at home and learn remotely due to a severe health risk.
Schools in Cambodia have also cut back on their hours.
Cambodia faces its hottest temperature in 170 years, according to meteorologists – as high as 43C (109F).
Bangkok in Thailand has reached 40C (104 F), but the heat index is said to have topped 50 C (122 F) due to the heat being trapped among the mass of buildings.
The United Nations Children’s Fund warned in April that the heat could put the lives of millions of children at risk and asked people who care for them to take extra precautions.
A spokesperson for UNICEF said around 243 million children were exposed to hotter and longer heatwaves.
A woman drinks from a public tap in India. Pic: AP
They said the increased heat was “putting them at risk of a multitude of heat-related illnesses, and even death”.
Thirty people in Thailand have died from heatstroke in the past month, according to data from the country’s health ministry.
People are being advised to avoid outdoor activities and to stay hydrated.
Several towns in Myanmar were included on lists of the hottest spots globally last month, with temperatures reaching 48.2C (118F) in at least one case.
People stock up on water in India. Pic: AP
Parts of eastern India also experienced their hottest April on record.
Kerala, on India’s west coast, this week instructed all schools and colleges to close until Monday, while influencers in Bangladesh have encouraging people to plant trees in response to the record heat.
Benjamin Horton, director of the Earth Observatory of Singapore, said there were three factors for heatwaves: a naturally-occurring climate phenomenon known as El Nino, an increase in global temperatures, and human-induced climate change.
Read more:
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Brazil is currently experiencing another climate phenomenon – La Nina – with 39 dead and 68 missing in floods across the country.
More than 24,000 people have been forced to leave their homes due to the flooding.
Scientists believe the naturally-occurring phenomenon has intensified due to the impact of climate change.
China has been branded “a bully” and an international lawbreaker after its ships blasted Philippine vessels with water cannon in the South China Sea.
Sky News was on board the BRP Bagacay when a Chinese vessel fired water at it, causing significant damage.
Philippine coastguard spokesman Jay Tarriela told Sky News that this week’s confrontation was the first time China had used “such aggression” against their ships.
“The metal parts and the railing were bent. The canopy was also destroyed. So this came as a surprise for us that China never hesitated to use brute force,” he said.
“It completely justifies us calling The People’s Republic of China a bully country.”
Jay Tarriela, a spokesman for the Philippine Coastguard, told Sky News that China is a ‘bully’
The Philippine coastguard was on a resupply mission to the Scarborough Shoal to deliver food and fuel to Philippine fishermen when they were struck.
The submerged reef lies in disputed waters. China claims sovereignty over the reef but it is much closer to the Philippines and lies within its legally recognised exclusive economic zone.
The vessel Sky News was on board was the closest the coastguard had ever been to the shoal – just 600 metres away from it.
Asked if the mission to the shoal was a provocative move by the Philippine coastguard, Commodore Tarriela denied they were “poking the bear” but rather “driving the bear out of our own territory”.
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Sky witnesses China-Philippine confrontation
The Philippines has been stepping up its patrols in the area under the instruction of President Bongbong Marcos, and reasserting its claim to the shoal in recent months.
It has raised the spectre of open conflict. While neither side currently wants that, there is now a greater threat of open conflict.
Asked what the end game was for the Philippines, Commodore Tarriela said their priority was to “tell the world” about China’s aggression.
China’s coastguard fired water at Philippine coastguard vessel BRP Bagacay while Sky was onboard
He said their secondary goal was to ensure “like-minded states” also made China “fall in line and respect international law”.
“Otherwise, it’s everybody’s loss,” he added.
Read more:
US accuses Beijing of ‘bullying’ in South China Sea
China building airstrip on disputed island, satellite images suggest
Philippine government policy is not to resist using water cannon against Chinese vessels – and Commodore Tarriela insisted that policy remains in place after the confrontation.
The government also remains intensely determined to protect the waters it believes it has every right to operate in.
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
“We’re not going to yield and we’re not going to surrender a square inch of our territory,” Commodore Tarriela insisted.
Beijing has called the action its own coastguard took as “necessary”.
Speaking at the Chinese foreign ministry’s daily news conference, spokesperson Lin Jian described the coastguard’s conduct as “professional, proper, and lawful”.
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