Electoral Dysfunction: The Tory leadership hopeful building their support almost entirely hidden from view

Published

2 months ago

February 23, 2024

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For weeks – months even – we’ve been watching a beauty parade on the Conservative benches preparing for life after Rishi Sunak as various MPs hook up with various groupings of Conservative backbenchers hoping to garner support for the moment when the ball comes out of the scrum.

On the right, we have seen the ‘five families‘ of right-wing groupings, led by leadership hopefuls Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick, trying to garner grassroots support by bouncing the prime minister (while Godfather fans will no doubt enjoy the reference to the five leading mafia dynasties of New York City, in the end there was little bloodletting and the prime minister won the day).

Then we have the Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch and Leader of the House Penny Mordaunt on manoeuvres – with briefings from ‘friends’ of the former distancing the cabinet minister from the prime minister’s Rwanda approach, while the latter is hitting the grassroots circuit hard while wooing those new candidates that might end up in the Conservative class of 2024.

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In this pre-launch teaser episode of Electoral Dysfunction, Ruth, Jess and I also had a chat about another contender flying below the radar but definitely positioning – Priti Patel. A former darling of the right, she was overtaken amid the demise of Boris Johnson by Ms Braverman, Ms Badenoch and Liz Truss. But now, the former home secretary and key Johnson ally is back, building her base almost entirely hidden from view.

My ears were first pricked in December when I was talking to a senior figure in the ‘One Nation’ wing of the party – that is home to Tory MPs who are more socially liberal and politically positioned on the centre-right.

As this figure was bemoaning the horrors, as they saw it, of a Braverman leadership bid after the election, they told me that Priti Patel was at least someone on that wing of the party they could do business with. The former cabinet minister acknowledged that the right is likely to take the leadership crown after the election, given the leanings of the Conservative party members who get to choose, and that Patel looks, for now, the pick of an unpalatable bunch for Tory centrists.

And then earlier this month, up Priti Patel popped at the launch of a new grouping – the Popular Conservatives – spearheaded (I know, the irony isn’t missed on me) by Liz Truss.

She is a politician building alliances over all sorts of groupings and even cross-party: when I raised Priti Patel as my dark horse in the likely up-and-coming leadership race, it certainly chimed with Ruth and Jess, with the latter telling us how surprised she’d been when former home secretary Amber Rudd, very much a One Nation Conservative, told her over dinner how she worked well with Priti: “I remember being like, how is this?”

Jess also told me how Patel was with her after MP Sir David Amess was murdered in his constituency: “Those of us who are the highest security risk, of which I am one of ten, they really ramped up our security on these occasions, as they always do in these moments.

“And Priti Patel [who at the time was home secretary] was really good friends with David.

“I mean she was his [constituency] neighbour. And every Sunday night, for four weeks, at about 9pm at night, she would ring me and ask if I was all right. You don’t forget that sort of thing.”

It’s particularly pertinent this week as concerns over MPs’ safety come to the fore over the divisive vote around a ceasefire in Gaza. In the week parliament finally backed an immediate ceasefire – a position which has taken Labour months to move to – this significant moment was drowned out by the spectacle of wrangling and rows over parliamentary procedure and partisan point-scoring from which no one emerged well.

The Speaker has had a particularly torrid 24 hours as dozens of MPs called for him to go after Sir Lindsay Hoyle broke decades of parliamentary precedent to allow all three main parties to put their position on a ceasefire to a vote.

The effect was to let Labour off the hook by avoiding a massive rebellion because it meant Starmer’s MPs could vote for the Labour ceasefire amendment instead of having to defy the whip and support the SNP ceasefire motion. But the Speaker was clear his motive was all about MPs’ safety.

There are those in parliament – like Rishi Sunak – who believe strongly concerns over MPs’ safety shouldn’t ever influence business in the Commons, not least because it could set a dangerous precedent of MPs being intimidated in order to change what they debate and how they vote.

But there is also a lot of chatter on some of the female MPs’ WhatsApp groups about their experiences and concerns over threats, with some – particularly Labour women – having to deal with physical confrontations with protests over the Israel-Hamas conflict.

One Conservative MP told me this week she was “riddled with anxiety” ahead of this week’s vote over what to do. “I’m angry that we’re being put in this position,” she told me.

“We get cast as either child murderers or antisemitic and I’m neither. I believe a nation has a right to defend itself against terrorists but I’m also a pacifist.

“There is no nuance in [this] vote, which is totally irrelevant anyway, just a binary perception of whether you’re for or against a ceasefire.”

So for all of those MPs angry at Sir Lindsay, there are others who are quietly thankful that he takes their safety so seriously and tried to cushion the fallout of this divisive SNP opposition day.

For now, it looks like he’s staying in post. What I can also confidently say will be a mainstay of this year is MPs’ safety, as we head into what is almost certainly going to be a very nasty election campaign. Something for me, Jess, Ruth to chew over in coming episodes.

Electoral Dysfunction launches on 1 March, tap here to follow and get it every Friday from wherever you get your podcasts

UK

Conservative Andy Street suffers shock loss to Labour in West Midlands mayoral race in blow to Rishi Sunak

Published

7 hours ago

May 4, 2024

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Conservative Andy Street suffers shock loss to Labour in West Midlands mayoral race in blow to Rishi Sunak

Tory incumbent Andy Street has suffered a shock defeat to Labour in the West Midlands mayoral election after a partial recount was ordered.

Labour’s Richard Parker beat Mr Street by just 1,508 votes – 0.25% – to deliver a major blow to Rishi Sunak in the key electoral battleground after a hammering in the local elections.

With the race neck-and-neck, in the end it came down to the results in one borough – Labour-supporting Sandwell.

“This is the most important thing I will ever do,” Mr Parker said in his acceptance speech.

“I promise you that I will deliver jobs,” he added.

He told Sky News he would take buses “back into public control” and deliver the “largest programme of social housing we’ve had in this region for more than 40 years”.

And he thanked his predecessor, who he said had “led this region through a number of great challenges and you deserve great credit for that”.

Mr Street told Sky News he was “personally devastated”, had “put my all into this”, and “genuinely believed we were making real progress across the region”.

He said it was “my campaign, totally”, adding: “I’m not going to try to push responsibility anywhere else. There’ll be no sloping shoulders from me.”

He wished his successor “all strength and wisdom”.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said it was a “phenomenal result” and “beyond our expectations”.

He added: “People across the country have had enough of Conservative chaos and decline and voted for change with Labour.

“My changed Labour Party is back in the service of working people, and stands ready to govern.”

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The mayoral election results

Ellie Reeves, Labour’s deputy national campaign co-ordinator, said it was a “significant victory”.

She added: “Right across the country people have voted for change and the message is clear – it’s time for a general election and a Labour government to get our country’s future back.”

Labour’s Sadiq Khan has secured a historic third term as London mayor with a convincing win over Conservative rival Susan Hall.

These results will increase pressure on the prime minister, who had been hoping for a repeat of the success enjoyed by Conservative Ben Houchen who held on as the mayor of Tees Valley.

Sam Coates, Sky News’s deputy political editor, said he had seen messages from Conservative MPs’ WhatsApp group.

One from former cabinet minister Simon Clarke, whom Coates said “wants Rishi Sunak to leave”, said: “These results are awful and should be a massive wake-up call.

“If we fight the same campaign in a few months [in the general election] we’ll get the same outcome or rather worse.

“Reform UK standing more candidates will cause greater damage.”

The loss of either the Teesside or West Midlands mayoralties would give Tory rebels who want to change leader a “huge amount of fuel”, former Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson said in the Electoral Dysfunction podcast.

Mr Street, who was seeking a third term in office, sought to distance himself from the Conservative brand during his campaign and instead ran on a personal platform.

Sky News recently revealed that Mr Street was sending out election literature with an endorsement from former prime minister Boris Johnson which urged people to “forget about the government”.

His campaign website also made no mention of Mr Sunak on its homepage and was coloured in green rather than Conservative blue.

UK

Sadiq Khan secures convincing win over Tory rival in London mayoral race

Published

8 hours ago

May 4, 2024

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Sadiq Khan secures convincing win over Tory rival in London mayoral race

Labour’s Sadiq Khan has secured a historic third term as London mayor, seeing off Tory challenger Susan Hall.

It followed “wild rumours” the incumbent could have suffered a shock defeat, although both sides subsequently said they believed Mr Khan would win.

He received 1,088,225 votes (43.8%) to be re-elected, a majority of nearly 276,000 over Ms Hall, who secured 812,397 votes (32.7%).

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The results as they come in

It was the first time any candidate for London mayor has won a third term in office, with Mr Khan’s predecessors Boris Johnson and Ken Livingstone both having served two terms.

As he took to the stage to make his victory speech, the re-elected mayor was booed and heckled with a shout of “Khan killed London” by the far-right Britain First candidate, who received fewer votes than Count Binface.

Speaking at City Hall, Mr Khan said: “We faced a campaign of non-stop negativity, but I couldn’t be more proud that we answered the fearmongering with facts, hate with hope, and attempts to divide with efforts to unite.

“We ran a campaign that was in keeping with the spirit and values of this great city, a city that regards our diversity not as a weakness, but as an almighty strength – and one that rejects right hard-wing populism and looks forward, not back.”

He also thanked his family for their support, but apologised for them having to deal with “protests by our home” and “threats”.

While congratulating Mr Khan on his victory, Ms Hall said he should stop “patronising” people who care about London.

When she had previously challenged him in a mayoral debate about “gangs running around with machetes” in the capital, he had said she should “stop watching The Wire” – a gritty US-based crime drama.

In her concession speech, she said: “The thing that matters the most, and to me, is reforming the Met and making London safe again. I hope Sadiq makes this his top priority.

“He owes it to the families of those thousands of people who have lost lives to knife crime under his mayoralty.

“And I hope too that he stops patronising people, like me, who care. This isn’t an episode of The Wire, this is real life on his watch.”

The pair had repeatedly clashed during the campaign, fought out amid concerns about knife crime and the handling of pro-Palestinian marches in the capital.

Just recently, Mr Khan had described his Conservative rival as the “most dangerous candidate I have fought against” over her past social media activity.

Hitting back, Ms Hall said she had “learnt” from her mistakes and branded his comment “outrageous”.

A clear dividing line between the candidates had been Mr Khan’s controversial expansion of the ultra low emission zone (ULEZ), which has been the subject of ongoing protests and which Ms Hall had pledged to scrap.

During the race, the Conservatives were forced to delete a clip used in an advert against Mr Khan’s record on crime after it emerged it used footage of a stampede at a New York subway station.

The result comes after Rishi Sunak’s Tory party took a hammering at the local elections, shedding hundreds of seats and losing more than 10 councils.

Meanwhile, Labour has made gains across the country, winning the Blackpool South by-election with a 26% swing from the Tories and taking control of councils in key battleground areas.

The party also picked up new mayoralties, including the critical regions of East Midlands and York and North Yorkshire, which includes Mr Sunak’s Richmond constituency.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said: “This is effectively the last stop on the journey to the general election and I am really pleased to be able to show we are making progress, we have earned the trust and confidence of voters and we are making progress towards that general election.”

Mr Sunak has taken consolation in the Conservative victory in the Tees Valley mayoral race, which was retained by Lord Houchen and seems to be enough to calm rumblings among discontented Tory MPs.

However, the crunch contest for West Midlands mayor remains on a knife-edge.

Labour has also not had it all its own way, losing control of councils in Oldham and Kirklees after victories for independent candidates opposing the party’s stance on Gaza.

Labour also lost seats on other councils including Bristol, where the Greens extended its lead as the largest party and could now be set to run the city council despite narrowly failing to win outright control.

Notably, all 14 councillors in the newly created Bristol Central constituency are now Green, where the party is looking to unseat Labour’s shadow culture secretary Thangam Debbonaire at the general election.

Sky News elections analyst Professor Michael Thrasher also says although the results are bad news for the Tories, they do not put Labour on course for an overall majority in the Commons in a general election.

The Tories have so far lost 473 seats and control of 12 councils, while Labour has won eight councils and gained 185 seats.

The Liberal Democrats gained 104 seats and won control of Dorset council from the Conservatives, while the Greens are up 74 seats.

UK

Conservatives suffer worst local election results in years – with London and West Midlands mayoral votes still to come

Published

23 hours ago

May 4, 2024

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Conservatives suffer worst local election results in years - with London and West Midlands mayoral votes still to come

The Conservative Party has suffered its worst electoral defeat in years, losing more than half of its councillors who stood for re-election across England.

Labour hailed a “truly historic” result in Rishi Sunak’s own backyard of York and North Yorkshire, where David Skaith smashed Tory Keane Duncan by almost 15,000 votes.

The region, which was electing a mayor for the first time, covers Mr Sunak’s Richmond constituency and is an area Labour has historically struggled to compete in.

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The results as they come in

Speaking at Northallerton Town Football Club, Sir Keir Starmer said: “We’ve had a positive campaign here, and I am very, very proud to stand here as leader of the Labour Party to celebrate this historic victory.

“And it is a historic victory – these are places where we would not have usually had a Labour Party success but we’ve been able to create that success and persuade people to vote for us.”

Sir Keir also renewed his demand that the prime minister call a general election.

The party also had successes in the North East and East Midlands mayoral votes and in the Blackpool by-election.

There was a sliver of hope for the government, with Lord Ben Houtchen holding on to his role as the mayor of Tees Valley.

Analysis: Labour’s future success is less clear-cut after the local elections

Appearing alongside Lord Houchen at a victory rally, Rishi Sunak said: “I’ve got a message for the Labour Party too because they know that they have to win here in order to win a general election – they know that.

“They assumed that Tees Valley would stroll back to them – but it didn’t.”

This victory is likely to have quelled talk of rebellion among disenchanted Tory MPs who had threatened to oust the prime minister if the results proved a disaster, but it remains to be seen whether the Tories can hold on to the West Midlands mayoralty.

Of the 107 councils that held elections on Thursday, 102 have declared their full results, with the Conservatives losing more than half of the seats it has been defending so far.

Some 468 Tory councillors lost their seats as the party lost control of 12 councils.

Sky’s election coverage plan – how to follow

The weekend: Sophy Ridge will host another special edition of the Politics Hub on Saturday from 7pm until 9pm. And Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips will take a look back over what’s happened from 8.30am until 10am.

How do I watch?: Freeview 233, Sky 501, Virgin 603, BT 313, YouTube and the Sky News website and app. You can also watch Sky News live here, and on YouTube.

The Electoral Dysfunction podcast with Beth Rigby, Jess Phillips and Ruth Davidsonis out now, and Politics at Jack and Sam’s will navigate the big question of where the results leave us ahead of a general election on Sunday.

You can also follow the latest on our politics page

Labour won control of eight councils as it gained 173 seats, while the Liberal Democrats gained 100 seats, the Greens 67, and Reform UK picked up two.

However, Labour suffered setbacks in Oldham and Kirklees, where it lost control of the councils after victories for independent candidates opposing its stance on Gaza.

Sky News elections analyst Professor Michael Thrasher says although the results are bad news for the Tories, they do not put Labour on course for an overall majority in the Commons in a general election.

Further results are expected over the weekend, including key mayoral contests in London and the West Midlands.

Labour’s Sadiq Khan is attempting to secure re-election in London, while Conservative Andy Street is defending his position in the West Midlands.

Rumours had swirled in London since the polls closed that Mr Khan could have suffered a shock defeat to Conservative Susan Hall, however Sky News understands both parties now believe the incumbent will remain in City Hall.

The results of those elections are expected to arrive at 10pm in London and 2.15pm in the West Midlands.

Other results still to be announced include council elections in the South and West of England where the Liberal Democrats and Greens hope to make progress.

There are also metro mayoral elections yet to declare a winner in Greater Manchester, Liverpool City, North Tyneside, South Yorkshire and West Yorkshire.