What could this years US presidential election mean for the world?

Published

2 months ago

February 24, 2024

admin

The second anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine comes as America prepares for a crucial election and while funding for a Ukrainian victory remains blocked in a divided Congress.

As our own frontline eyewitness reporting shows, Vladimir Putin has the upper hand.

Western leaders have repeatedly warned that Putin won’t stop at Ukraine given the chance. We are reminded that even on the eve of his invasion two years ago, Putin insisted he would not move into Ukraine.

Ukraine-Russia war latest: Putin ‘may achieve war goal’

So what might happen in the months and years ahead?

Here are two scenarios. Far-fetched? It depends if the rhetoric is accurate.

Scenario one:

It’s March 2025 and a few weeks since Donald Trump was inaugurated as America’s 47th president.

Air Force One has just touched down in Istanbul where Turkey is hosting the ‘Donbas Peace Summit’ where an agreement will be signed by Presidents Putin and Zelenskyy.

At the Topkapi Palace overlooking the Bosporus River, the stage is set for a Trump-brokered ‘peace’ treaty.

The treaty comes three months after Ukraine’s weapon supply ran completely dry following an American refusal to pass funding bills and a breakdown in European unity.

This Istanbul moment is the delivery of President Trump’s campaign pledge to ‘solve the Ukraine war in a day’.

It had taken longer than a day but Zelenskyy had been cornered through a lack of Western weapons.

Closed-door meetings between Trump administration officials and the Kremlin (the contents of which have not been revealed) sealed the deal: Ukraine agreed to cede the whole of the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine to an expanded Russian Federation.

Inside the Topkapi Palace, Zelenskyy first took to the stage, stony-faced and wearing a suit rather than his army fatigues for the first time since the Russian invasion three years earlier.

He signed the document and left the room without acknowledging President Trump who was presiding over the moment.

Minutes later, separately, a beaming President Putin emerged, signed the document and shook the American president’s hand.

Three years later in the spring of 2028, the Russian army which had been massing on Europe’s eastern flank invaded Latvia and Estonia.

The two European nations fell fast.

NATO, abandoned by Trump’s America a year earlier, was unable to defend them.

By the summer of 2029, Chinese President Xi Jinping launches an air and maritime invasion of Taiwan.

Scenario two:

March 2025. Air Force One landed at Kyiv international airport. Joe Biden, recently re-elected as America’s President, descended the steps of the plane with a rare spring in his careful step.

On the tarmac, Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy, in a suit, embraced him. Some observers said they could see tears in his eyes.

A week earlier, Russian President Putin had withdrawn the last of his forces from eastern Ukraine after a bitter winter battle in which an estimated 40,000 soldiers on both sides had been killed.

Putin’s army had been decimated after a massive increase of weapons from Europe and the United States.

The consequence of a war which had lasted three years was the near-total degradation of the Russian military.

It had been compounded by a surprise thaw in US-China relations and Beijing’s subsequent abandonment of Moscow.

A dramatic shift in the geopolitics of the Middle East also helped to seal Russia’s fate.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s resignation and subsequent conviction in the 7 October Inquiry of September 2024 had paved the way for the Israeli-Saudi normalisation deal.

This isolated Iran and dented Tehran’s relations with Moscow.

Far-fetched then? Quite possibly. Donald Trump’s first presidency showed that his fickle unpredictability often cancelled out his wild rhetoric.

And a second Biden term is full of profound unknowns. Republican or Democrat, America appears far less engaged than it once was.

In a world of such discombobulating flux, and where global geopolitics is all inextricably linked, don’t rule anything out.

World

Health warning issued as heatwave grips South and Southeast Asia

Published

23 hours ago

May 4, 2024

admin

Health warning issued as heatwave grips South and Southeast Asia

Countries in South and Southeast Asia have been coping with a weeks-long heatwave which has seen record temperatures sweep parts of the region.

Pupils in the Philippines, India and Bangladesh have been told to stay at home and learn remotely due to a severe health risk.

Schools in Cambodia have also cut back on their hours.

Cambodia faces its hottest temperature in 170 years, according to meteorologists – as high as 43C (109F).

Bangkok in Thailand has reached 40C (104 F), but the heat index is said to have topped 50 C (122 F) due to the heat being trapped among the mass of buildings.

The United Nations Children’s Fund warned in April that the heat could put the lives of millions of children at risk and asked people who care for them to take extra precautions.

A spokesperson for UNICEF said around 243 million children were exposed to hotter and longer heatwaves.

They said the increased heat was “putting them at risk of a multitude of heat-related illnesses, and even death”.

Thirty people in Thailand have died from heatstroke in the past month, according to data from the country’s health ministry.

People are being advised to avoid outdoor activities and to stay hydrated.

Several towns in Myanmar were included on lists of the hottest spots globally last month, with temperatures reaching 48.2C (118F) in at least one case.

Parts of eastern India also experienced their hottest April on record.

Kerala, on India’s west coast, this week instructed all schools and colleges to close until Monday, while influencers in Bangladesh have encouraging people to plant trees in response to the record heat.

Benjamin Horton, director of the Earth Observatory of Singapore, said there were three factors for heatwaves: a naturally-occurring climate phenomenon known as El Nino, an increase in global temperatures, and human-induced climate change.

Brazil is currently experiencing another climate phenomenon – La Nina – with 39 dead and 68 missing in floods across the country.

More than 24,000 people have been forced to leave their homes due to the flooding.

Scientists believe the naturally-occurring phenomenon has intensified due to the impact of climate change.

World

Philippine coastguard hits out at China’s ‘brute force’ after water cannon attack

Published

1 day ago

May 4, 2024

admin

Philippine coastguard hits out at China's 'brute force' after water cannon attack

China has been branded “a bully” and an international lawbreaker after its ships blasted Philippine vessels with water cannon in the South China Sea.

Sky News was on board the BRP Bagacay when a Chinese vessel fired water at it, causing significant damage.

Philippine coastguard spokesman Jay Tarriela told Sky News that this week’s confrontation was the first time China had used “such aggression” against their ships.

“The metal parts and the railing were bent. The canopy was also destroyed. So this came as a surprise for us that China never hesitated to use brute force,” he said.

“It completely justifies us calling The People’s Republic of China a bully country.”

The Philippine coastguard was on a resupply mission to the Scarborough Shoal to deliver food and fuel to Philippine fishermen when they were struck.

The submerged reef lies in disputed waters. China claims sovereignty over the reef but it is much closer to the Philippines and lies within its legally recognised exclusive economic zone.

The vessel Sky News was on board was the closest the coastguard had ever been to the shoal – just 600 metres away from it.

Asked if the mission to the shoal was a provocative move by the Philippine coastguard, Commodore Tarriela denied they were “poking the bear” but rather “driving the bear out of our own territory”.

The Philippines has been stepping up its patrols in the area under the instruction of President Bongbong Marcos, and reasserting its claim to the shoal in recent months.

It has raised the spectre of open conflict. While neither side currently wants that, there is now a greater threat of open conflict.

Asked what the end game was for the Philippines, Commodore Tarriela said their priority was to “tell the world” about China’s aggression.

He said their secondary goal was to ensure “like-minded states” also made China “fall in line and respect international law”.

“Otherwise, it’s everybody’s loss,” he added.

Philippine government policy is not to resist using water cannon against Chinese vessels – and Commodore Tarriela insisted that policy remains in place after the confrontation.

The government also remains intensely determined to protect the waters it believes it has every right to operate in.

“We’re not going to yield and we’re not going to surrender a square inch of our territory,” Commodore Tarriela insisted.

Beijing has called the action its own coastguard took as “necessary”.

Speaking at the Chinese foreign ministry’s daily news conference, spokesperson Lin Jian described the coastguard’s conduct as “professional, proper, and lawful”.

World

Three charged over killing of Sikh separatist leader in Canada – in incident which sparked diplomatic spat with India

Published

1 day ago

May 4, 2024

admin

Three charged over killing of Sikh separatist leader in Canada - in incident which sparked diplomatic spat with India

Three suspects have been charged by Canadian police over the killing of a Sikh separatist leader in Vancouver last June, in an incident that sparked a diplomatic spat between Ottawa and New Delhi.

Hardeep Singh Nijjar, 45, was shot dead outside a temple by masked gunmen in Surrey, outside Vancouver, on 18 June 2023.

Royal Canadian Mounted Police assistant commissioner David Teboul said police could not comment on the nature of the evidence or the motive.

“This matter is very much under active investigation,” Teboul said.

The three suspects – Indian nationals Kamalpreet Singh, Karan Brar and Karampreet Singh – were arrested in Edmonton, Alberta, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police said.

Superintendent Mandeep Mooker said: “This investigation does not end here. We are aware that others may have played a role in this homicide and we remain dedicated to finding and arresting each one of these individuals.”

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau sparked a diplomatic feud with India when he said in September that there were “credible allegations” of Indian involvement in the killing. India angrily denied involvement.

Mr Nijjar, an Indian-born citizen of Canada, was a leader in what remains of the Khalistan movement – a once-strong group calling for the creation of an independent Sikh homeland.

He was organising an unofficial referendum in India for an independent Sikh nation at the time of this death and had denied allegations of ties to terrorism.

The Khalistan movement has lost much of its power but is still supported by some in the Punjab state in northwestern India and in the Sikh diaspora overseas.

A violent, decade-long Sikh insurgency shook north India in the 1970s and 1980s, and was ultimately crushed in a government crackdown which saw thousands of people killed, including prominent Sikh leaders.

In June 1984, Indian forces stormed the Golden Temple, the holiest Sikh shrine in Amritsar, where separatists had taken refuge.

In more recent years, the Indian government has repeatedly warned that Sikh separatists were trying to make a comeback.

Read more: What is the Khalistan movement?

The diplomatic row saw diplomats expelled by both India and Canada.

The Indian government said it “completely rejected” Mr Trudeau’s allegations and added: “We are a democratic polity with a strong commitment to rule of law.”

The dispute derailed trade talks between the two countries and ultimately saw Canada withdraw 41 of its 62 diplomats in India.

At the time, Canada did not provide public evidence to back up Mr Trudeau’s allegations. However, it did reveal the claims were based on intelligence provided by a major ally and surveillance of Indian diplomats in the country.