NHL trade grades megafile: Report cards for Walker, Tarasenko, Mantha, more deals
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The 2024 NHL trade deadline is Friday at 3 p.m. ET/noon PT. Some big deals occurred early this season, including Elias Lindholm to the Vancouver Canucks, Sean Monahan to the Winnipeg Jets, and Chris Tanev to the Dallas Stars.
We’re breaking down and grading all of the biggest moves from the 2023-24 trade season here, with analysis from ESPN reporters Greg Wyshynski and Ryan S. Clark.
Jump to a deal:
Walker (COL)
Tarasenko (FLA)
Mantha (VGK)
Lyubushkin (TOR)
Tanev (DAL)
Monahan (WPG)
Lindholm (VAN)

The Colorado Avalanche acquired defenseman Sean Walker and a 2026 fifth-round pick, sending forward Ryan Johansen and a 2025 first-round pick to the Philadelphia Flyers. The first-round pick is top-10 protected.

This is an early favorite for the best deal ahead of the deadline, and it turns out it was just the start for the Avalanche. It initially looked like they were getting another top-four defenseman in Walker who would have been used either on the second or third pairing. That changed with the Avalanche subsequently trading Bowen Byram to the Buffalo Sabres for Casey Mittelstadt.
Adding Walker, who was one of the most attractive defensemen on the market, gives the Avalanche three right-handed shots on the back end that they can use throughout all their pairings.
Part of the Avalanche’s success has been the ability to control possession and facilitate play. Walker gives them another puck-mover who can do just that, and is also an option on their penalty kill. Walker was among the leaders of a Flyers penalty kill that ranked first in the league and will now seek to provide similar results to an Avs kill that is ranked 11th.
This gives the Avalanche a D group that features Cale Makar, Devon Toews, Samuel Girard, Josh Manson, Jack Johnson and Walker. That gives the Avalanche several options in a variety of situations, with the notion that controlling possession will remain at the heart of how they operate.
Yet the part of this trade that might exceed getting Walker and adding another layer to their defense was getting Johansen’s contract off the books. Avalanche general manager Chris McFarland and his front office staff traded for Johansen in the offseason and got him for 50% of his salary for this season and next. The thought was Johansen would be their second-line center, but he struggled for consistency and was overtaken by Ross Colton in that spot.
Finding a second-line center was the biggest priority facing the Avalanche. One of the obstacles facing them was cap space, and if they could work out a deal that would allow them to get a second-line center at all.
Spoiler alert: They did (in the later trade for Mittelstadt), and moving on from Johansen along with his salary made that happen.
Getting another defenseman along with a second-line center took the Avalanche from being a team that was already in contention to one that appears ready to battle in what is expected to be a grueling Western Conference playoff race.

Getting a first-round pick is the dream for front offices at the trade deadline, and the Flyers were able to get one in exchange for Walker. The first-rounder they’re receiving from the Avalanche means they’ll have two first-round picks in 2024 (from the Florida Panthers, via the Claude Giroux trade) and again in 2025.
It now means the Flyers have 20 draft picks over the next two seasons to strengthen a farm system that has recently graduated Bobby Brink, Noah Cates, Joel Farabee, Tyson Foerster and Cam York, among others.
Daily Faceoff reported Tuesday that it seemed “increasingly unlikely” that the Flyers would be able to re-sign Walker and Nick Seeler, who is also a pending free agent, with the notion that one of them would be traded. It was ultimately Walker who was moved.
Knowing they had to trade one of them meant the Flyers had to find what they felt was the strongest deal — or risk getting nothing in return this summer. They were able to get a conditional first-round pick, providing more draft capital for a team that’s retooling while simultaneously in a playoff position.
But that’s not to say there aren’t questions.
The first: What does trading Walker mean for their playoff chances?
The Flyers entered Wednesday third in the Metropolitan Division and were trailing the Carolina Hurricanes by six points. They have the same number of points as the Detroit Red Wings and the Tampa Bay Lightning — the two teams occupying the Eastern Conference wild-card spots. But the Flyers also have a four-point advantage over the New York Islanders in the division.
Walker was such an integral part of the Flyers with how he performed in 5-on-5 situations and on the penalty kill. It’s going to create more opportunities for others in lineup, with the reality that those chances could play a pivotal role in the Flyers getting to the playoffs.
The second: What are the Flyers going to do with Johansen?
Johansen was placed on waivers just minutes after he was traded to the Flyers. Placing him on waivers effectively allows the Flyers to create more cap space in the event they seek to make another trade to strengthen their playoff bid.
As for Johansen? If he goes unclaimed, it’s likely he will report to the AHL until the Flyers can figure out the next step for him. — Ryan S. Clark

Two Atlantic Division teams consummated a deal Wednesday, with right wing Vladimir Tarasenko heading from the Ottawa Senators to the Florida Panthers. Florida is sending Ottawa a conditional 2024 fourth-round pick and a 2025 third-round pick; if the Panthers win the Stanley Cup this season, the 2024 fourth-round pick becomes a 2026 third-round pick. Ottawa is retaining 50% of Tarasenko’s salary.

Anthony Mantha getting traded Tuesday to the Vegas Golden Knights signaled that the market for top-six/top-nine wingers was open in earnest. Thus, it was vital for contenders to get their work done early — which is exactly what the Panthers did by getting Tarasenko.
Tarasenko is a legitimate top-six winger with significant playoff experience and production: He has 44 goals and 64 points in 97 career postseason games. He helped the St. Louis Blues win the Stanley Cup in 2019 with 11 goals during their run.
He wasn’t the only winger believed to be available who provided similar credentials. The Panthers, along with others contending for a Cup, could have gone after the Pittsburgh Penguins‘ Jake Guentzel or Reilly Smith. Both of them are expected to get moved before Friday for the same reasons as Tarasenko: They played major roles in why their teams won championships.
The Panthers get high marks here because of the package going back to Ottawa.
Panthers general manager Bill Zito was aggressive ahead of the 2022 deadline. The Panthers moved on from Frank Vatrano and Owen Tippett along with two first-round picks (and more) to add Ben Chiarot and Claude Giroux. The Panthers won in the first round but were ultimately swept in the second round that postseason. Getting bounced in the second round created questions of whether Zito was a bit too aggressive.
The Panthers entered the 2022-23 season extremely limited by their salary cap situation. It’s why they couldn’t do much ahead of the 2023 deadline … before going on a postseason run that started with narrowly winning the final Eastern Conference wild-card spot, beating the top-seeded Boston Bruins (who had the best regular-season record in NHL history) and reaching the Stanley Cup Final.
Having such contrasting deadlines over the past two years is what makes the deal for Tarasenko a balanced approach. The Panthers were able to get a player they feel can put them over the edge, have Ottawa retain 50% of his salary, and part with the sort of draft capital that appears to come with less risk. Cap Friendly projects the Panthers will have slightly more than $3 million in available deadline cap space, so they can still make another move before the deadline.

The biggest challenge the Senators were facing with moving Tarasenko was always going to be what they could get in return. Even though they had a player several teams coveted, the reality was Tarasenko was not the only option for contending teams needing a top-six winger. Moreover, his no-trade clause limited the teams bidding for his services.
Negotiations are about trying to find the right deal. The Panthers did that and the Senators did (to a degree) given the parameters. What makes this particular deal complicated is that Tarasenko was presumably the player who could have not only commanded the most in return, but he’s also one of two pending unrestricted free agents on the Senators’ roster.
Granted, none of this might matter in the end. There’s always the possibility they could get back a sizable return in the event they trade Jakob Chychrun, who will have one more year left on his deal at $4.6 million annually. It’s also possible that the Senators could receive more draft capital should someone come along with an offer for Dominik Kubalik, another pending UFA who has a $2.5 million cap hit.
Moving on from Tarasenko also represents how much an organization can change over the course of several months. In the fall, the decision to sign Tarasenko helped build up the belief that the Senators could return to the playoffs after a long hiatus. But a slow start, the situation with Shane Pinto, firing their coach and moving on from their GM culminated in this being a lost season for the Senators instead of one in which they’d be preparing for the playoffs. — Ryan S. Clark

The Vegas Golden Knights landed Anthony Mantha, sending a 2024 second-round pick and a 2026 fourth-round pick to the Washington Capitals. The Capitals are retaining 50% of Mantha’s salary.

It’s possible that trading for Mantha in 2024 will go down as one of Kelly McCrimmon’s most strategic moves during his time as the general manager of the Golden Knights.
McCrimmon and the Golden Knights front office have dealt with this exact situation before. A year ago, Mark Stone was moved to long-term injured reserve after having a second back surgery in 12 months. They took advantage of the cap space that came with moving Stone to LTIR to trade for a pending UFA in Ivan Barbashev. Barbashev would play a key role in helping Vegas to its first Stanley Cup. It also paved the way for Vegas and Barbashev to subsequently agree to a five-year contract worth $5 million annually.
Fast forward to Monday when they had to move Stone to LTIR because he sustained an upper-body injury. That freed up more than $7.2 million in cap space that allowed the Golden Knights to go in a number of directions.
They decided on Mantha, which could prove to be a rather prudent decision.
Vegas is banking on the notion that Mantha can be a success similar to what they found in Barbashev. It’s entirely possible, considering the Golden Knights have seen it before with Adin Hill, Jack Eichel, Alex Pietrangelo, Barbashev and Stone, among others; these outsiders all assimilated and carved a place within the lineup.
Mantha also fits within the Golden Knights’ premise that the sum is greater than the whole of its parts. He’ll be the ninth player on their roster who has more than 10 goals this season, and the 12th player who has more than 20 points. Remember, Mantha’s third 20-goal season came while playing for a team that was last in the Eastern Conference in goals.
While Mantha fills a need, an argument can be had that the strongest part of this deal for the Golden Knights is the price tag. Having the Capitals retain 50% of Mantha’s salary means they’ll have $4.426 million in deadline cap space left, according to Cap Friendly.
Then there’s this: The Golden Knights didn’t have to part with any of their first-round picks to get this one over the finish line. Between that and the cap space they have available, it leaves the Golden Knights with the ability to create an attractive package should they seek to add more help between now and Friday’s deadline.

Being seven points out of the wild-card race with more than 20 games left in their season meant the Capitals were at a crossroads, with the trade deadline quickly approaching.
Do they decide to hold firm with the hope of getting back to the playoffs after missing last season? Or would it make more sense for them to parlay their pending UFAs into draft capital rather than risk losing them for nothing?
The Capitals chose the latter, with the full understanding that this deadline gives them the chance to restock what was once one of the amplest farm systems in the NHL.
Moving on from Mantha was about getting the strongest possible return — with the caveat that they’re not the only team that has a top-six/top-nine forward that could be enticing for a Cup contender. This year’s market is expected to see players such as Pavel Buchnevich, Jake Guentzel and Reilly Smith all get traded to contenders.
What they received for Mantha allowed them to jump back into the second round of this summer’s draft, having previously traded their original second-rounder. But it also means the Capitals have quite a bit of draft capital over the next three years.
They now have 23 draft picks over the next three years, and could add more. The Capitals have pending UFAs such as Nic Dowd, Joel Edmundson and Max Pacioretty that could lead to them receiving even more draft picks that could help with building a stronger future. — Ryan S. Clark

The Toronto Maple Leafs acquired Ilya Lyubushkin from the Anaheim Ducks in a three-team trade that also involved the Carolina Hurricanes. The Leafs received Lyubushkin and the rights to prospect forward Kirill Slepets, with the Ducks receiving the Leafs’ 2025 third-round pick while retaining 50% of Lyubushkin’s $2.75 million salary.
As for the Hurricanes, they received the Leafs’ 2024 sixth-round pick for serving as a third-party broker that will pay 25% of Lyubushkin’s salary.

Getting creative with the salary cap has been part of the Leafs’ strategy over the past several years. It’s become even more of a challenge this season when it comes to strengthening the Leafs’ defense. Both John Klingberg and Conor Timmins are on injured reserve while Jake Muzzin is on long-term injured reserve after he was ruled out for the regular season and playoffs with a cervical spine issue.
Then there are the more recent developments related to the health of the Leafs’ blue line. Timothy Liljegren missed a second straight game with an undisclosed injury while Mark Giordano left the Leafs’ 4-2 win Thursday with a head injury in the first period. That led to winger Mitch Marner filing in on defense — which was an option that Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe said he even thought about before puck drop.
What Leafs GM Brad Treliving accomplished was getting reinforcements in the form of a sizable right-handed shot who not only strengthens their depth but provides them a more defensive-minded option — at 25% of his salary. Cap Friendly projects the Leafs will have $2.134 million deadline cap space. It’s enough room for them to think about another move before next Friday’s deadline.
It also helps that there’s a familiarity with Lyubushkin and the Leafs. He gives them another option for a penalty kill that has struggled this season with a 77.6% success rate, which ranks 24th. His 31-game stint with the Leafs saw him finish with six points in the regular season. Lyubushkin had a rocky postseason experience, as he was seventh among Leafs defensemen in ice time, yet he was on the ice for four goals at 5-on-5 which was tied for the second most on the team, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Could the Leafs have gone after other right-handed options? Sean Walker continues to be mentioned in the right-handed defenseman market. But the Philadelphia Flyers remain in the hunt for a playoff spot, currently third in the Metropolitan Division.
Matt Dumba, Alexandre Carrier or Tyson Barrie, the latter of whom also played for the Leafs, could have been potential targets. But Dumba has a $3.9 million cap hit. Carrier is slightly lower at $2.5 million, while Barrie checks in at $4.5 million. So getting Lyubushkin at his rate was a clear win.
The Leafs were also able to get the rights to 24-year-old Slepets, who has eight goals and 19 points in 53 games for Amur Khabarovsk in the KHL.
In sum, the Leafs were able to fill a need here, and struck quickly in a right-handed defenseman market that now has one fewer name. And they did it without having to use up much cap space.

This was a solid move. But where it gets tricky for the Ducks is that they could have sought one more draft pick because of the premium they face with retention slots at this year’s trade deadline.
The Ducks have a chance to use this deadline to make one for the NHL’s most promising farm systems even stronger. Adam Henrique is the most attractive option in the second-line center market. Frank Vatrano is one of the more sought-after top-six/top-nine wingers, while Sam Carrick provides contenders seeking a bottom-six option on a team-friendly contract.
Henrique is a pending UFA with a $5.825 million cap hit while Vatrano has two years left at $3.65 million per season. Carrick is also a pending UFA, with a budget-friendly $850,00 cap hit. The expectation is the Ducks will likely have to retain salary should they trade Henrique and Vatrano. Carrick’s cap hit should hypothetically be an easier one to manage, but it’s possible that it could prove challenging depending upon a team’s specific situation.
But here’s what pushes the grade to a B for the Ducks: While they were able to get a draft pick, they could have gone after more just because of the value retention spots have for teams seeking to add more draft capital this time of year.
Then again, it might not matter considering the haul they can likely get for Henrique and Vatrano.

Being a third-party broker is emblematic of two tenets that have become hallmarks of the Don Waddell era: Gaining draft capital and having quite a bit of cap space at an opportune time.
A three-year draft cycle generally means having 21 picks — seven in each year — assuming a team does not trade those picks. The Hurricanes have had a total of 30 draft picks over the past three years. This trade now gives them 10 picks in this summer’s draft, and another chance to add more depth to their farm system. Or they’ll package some of those picks to make additions of their own.
Cap Friendly projects the Hurricanes will have a little more than $5.8 million in deadline cap space. That leaves them with quite a bit of room to take an active role at the deadline should they seek to add help as they seek to reach the Eastern Conference finals for a second-consecutive season — and advance to the Stanley Cup Final this time around. — Ryan S. Clark

The Dallas Stars landed defenseman Chris Tanev from the Calgary Flames, in exchange for defenseman Artem Grushnikov, the Stars’ 2024 second-round pick and a conditional 2026 third-round pick (the pick changes hands if the Stars make the 2024 Stanley Cup Final). The Stars also received the rights to University of Massachusetts goaltender Cole Brady.
In order to facilitate the deal, the New Jersey Devils will pick up 50% of Tanev’s salary, and were sent Dallas’ fourth-round pick in the 2026 draft as compensation for doing so.

The salary cap inherently discourages transactions because of its fiscal constrictions. At the same time, it encourages some managerial ingenuity.
That was on full display Wednesday night when Stars GM Jim Nill used a three-team trade to acquire the best defenseman at the deadline with an expiring contract, for a miniscule cap hit and without having to sacrifice a first-round pick. It’s a trade that sets up Dallas for a Stanley Cup run and protects the Stars’ cap space and assets for further roster augmentation before next week’s NHL trade deadline.
It’s a major W for Big D.
Tanev, 34, is the quintessential “last piece of the puzzle” player for the 2024 deadline. He’s a 14-year veteran who plays on the right side. He’s a rugged throwback who is considered one of the NHL’s most effective defensemen, but one who can also break out the puck offensively. He ranks second overall in the NHL in blocked shots (171). He’s played his entire career in the Western Conference, so he knows the Stars’ playoff competition quite well.
It’ll be fascinating to see where coach Pete DeBoer ends up using Tanev on his back end, because he has options. Among the natural left side defensemen on the roster are Esa Lindell, Ryan Suter and 22-year-old Thomas Harley, who is second on Dallas in average ice time this season and has been playing with star defenseman Miro Heiskanen.
Also a natural left side defenseman: Heiskanen, who has been playing on his off side with a number of teammates this season. Pairing Tanev with Heiskanen would allow Dallas’s best defenseman to move back to the left side and go full throttle offensively, knowing that Tanev has the back end covered. It’s a role Tanev has played for defensemen ranging from Quinn Hughes to Noah Hanifin.
Thanks to the salary retention by the Flames and Devils, Tanev has a cap hit of just $1.125 million, which is lower than that of defenseman Jani Hakanpää, and Chris Tanev is slightly better than Hakanpää.
The Stars essentially traded a 2024 second-round pick, a 2026 fourth-round pick and Grushnikov for Tanev. They could afford to trade Grushnikov, as defense is an organizational position of strength. The 2026 third-round pick is conditional: Calgary receives it if the Stars make the Stanley Cup Final, which they’ll gladly ante up.
The Stars also snagged a goalie prospect in Cole Brady from the Devils. More on him in a bit.
The reason we can’t go all the way to ‘A+’ or ‘A’ on this one is that Tanev is 34 years old, he has played 773 games over 14 years and he’s played 70 games in a season only twice in his career. He’s got some miles on him. But that’s why the Stars wanted him: His experience, his savvy and his will to win his first Stanley Cup.
Overall, a tremendous trade for the Stars.

We praised GM Craig Conroy for the return he received in the Elias Lindholm trade with Vancouver, and hence were interested in seeing what he could pull at the trade deadline for Tanev, Noah Hanifin and potentially Jacob Markstrom. Looking at this trade … well, he still has Hanifin and potentially Jacob Markstrom.
Conroy told Fan 960 in Calgary that there was “lots and lots” of interest in Tanev from playoff contenders and teams outside the playoff picture. Whatever the market was for him, Conroy didn’t leverage it enough.
For 50% salary retention, Calgary acquired a 2024 second-round pick that could be low enough to essentially be a third-rounder given how good Dallas is this season; defenseman Artem Grushnikov, whom we will discuss in a moment; and a conditional 2026 third-round pick that only manifests if Dallas makes the Stanley Cup Final this season. There is a possible future reality in the NHL multiverse in which the Flames and Stars meet in the first round, in which Calgary will attempt to cost itself a third-round draft pick.
In Grushnikov, the Flames have acquired someone they hope becomes Chris Tanev, basically. They’re around the same size. They’re both defensive defensemen, with Conroy calling out Grushnikov’s penalty killing prowess and his work in the defensive zone. He has a high compete level and has fared well in his first AHL season. But he doesn’t have the puck movement skills of Tanev and there hasn’t been much evidence that he’s anything more than a big hitting defender who’s solid in his own end. Conroy seems fine with that one-dimensional play and the fact that he’s got proof of concept rather than the mystery of a draft pick.
Grushnikov’s development is the key to the deal. Otherwise, the Flames acquired a pick that might not be within the first 50 in the draft, and another pick that won’t exist if the Stars fall short of the Stanley Cup Final. That was for allegedly the most coveted defensive defenseman at the deadline who generated “lots and lots” of interest.

Well, this wasn’t the New Jersey-Calgary trade involving a goalie we thought we’d see at the deadline. But then again we also didn’t anticipate the Devils would be a salary cap retention intermediary at the deadline, either.
The Devils took on $1.125 million in dead cap space for a 2026 fourth-round pick from Dallas. They had the space to do so, with Dougie Hamilton on long-term injured reserve, taking more than $8.3 million off their cap.
The Devils had to trade a player rather than “future considerations” in the deal, so they sent unsigned goalie prospect Cole Brady to the Flames for Tanev, and then the Flames traded Brady to the Stars to complete the three-way deal.
Brady has played nine games at UMass this season with an .886 save percentage. He transferred there in 2022 after two seasons at Arizona State. The Devils took him in the fifth round in 2019. That New Jersey is punting on a goalie prospect should tell you all you need to know about their relationship with Brady and where he fits in their future plans. His rights expire this summer, making this just a name to satisfy a requirement and probably not much more. — Greg Wyshynski

This trade saw veteran center Sean Monahan dealt to the Winnipeg Jets in exchange for a 2024 first-round draft pick and a 2027 conditional third-round pick going back to the Montreal Canadiens.

This is going to go down as one of the greatest examples of asset management in the salary cap era.
In August 2022, the Canadiens and Calgary Flames made a trade. Montreal acquired Monahan in the final year of his contract, which carried a $6.375 million cap hit. Monahan’s star had dimmed after being one of the top centers in the league for the Flames from 2017-19. He has had two hip surgeries, a groin surgery and wrist surgery in the last few seasons.
The Flames wanted his salary off their roster, so they traded a conditional 2025 first-round pick to the Canadiens, who had plenty of cap room for Monahan.
He played only 25 games in his first season in Montreal, which were enough to inspire some hope that he was on the road back to effectiveness; the Habs signed him to a one-year, $1.985 million deal heading into 2023-24. Thanks to his point production, his minuscule cap hit and his expiring contract, Monahan became one of the most coveted centers ahead of the trade deadline.
The Canadiens traded Monahan to the Jets for another first-round pick.
It’s possible that even at the peak of his NHL production that Monahan would not have garnered two first-round picks in a trade. That he basically did through the Canadiens’ two trades — for a 29-year-old reclamation project with an expiring contract and a specious health history — is one of the best uses of salary cap space and value inflation in recent memory.
Kudos to GM Kent Hughes for a master class in asset management, aided by a trade market that was friendly to Monahan.

It’s difficult to talk about Monahan without talking about what might have been.
An NHL source confirms that the Jets were in pursuit of center Elias Lindholm before the Vancouver Canucks‘ aggressive courtship landed the Flames forward on Wednesday for a first-rounder, a conditional pick, a roster player and two prospects.
Lindholm is the better, more complete player, even if it could be argued that Monahan is having the better season. In an odd way, these two trades are mirror images of each other: Vancouver going big to get Lindholm based on everything he did before this season and Winnipeg trading a first-rounder based on everything Monahan did this season.
Monahan is a playmaking center and a power-play asset, although goal-scoring in either situation isn’t anywhere near his early-career efficiency. Coach Rick Bowness told me on Friday that he expects Monahan to start on a line with Cole Perfetti and Nikolaj Ehlers, two players that can find the back of the net for the Jets.
He should also provide a boost to their power play, which ranks 24th in the NHL (15.7%) this season.
Last month, I predicted the Jets would go all-in for a center. They’ve been a pleasant surprise this season — especially with their team defense — but still had a significant hole in their lineup behind Mark Scheifele, thanks to last summer’s trade of Pierre-Luc Dubois to the Los Angeles Kings.
They had Vladislav Namestnikov and Adam Lowry in the middle, with Perfetti and Gabriel Vilardi also available in the pivot. But Monahan gives them a legit No. 2 center, and one that Bowness believes also passes important character tests for the Jets off the ice.
I was thinking B-minus overall here, but bumped it to a B because of Monahan’s incredible cap value, a point of demarcation with Lindholm ($4.85 million). Overall, a solid pickup for a surprising contender, snagging one the trade board’s top remaining centers on an expiring contract. — Greg Wyshynski

The Vancouver Canucks acquired center Elias Lindholm from the Calgary Flames in exchange for forward Andrei Kuzmenko, defensemen Hunter Brzustewicz and Joni Jurmo, a 2024 first-round pick and a conditional 2024 fourth-round pick.

“He’s a team guy who gives it everything, every shift.”
That’s Canucks president of hockey operations Jim Rutherford’s assessment of Elias Lindholm … from the 2013 NHL draft. That’s when then-Carolina Hurricanes GM Rutherford selected him fifth overall, right before center Sean Monahan was taken by the Flames.
In acquiring Lindholm, the Canucks remove one of the biggest names from the NHL trade deadline board. (Ironically, Monahan, now with Montreal, might currently be the top center available at the deadline.) Lindholm was coveted by teams trying to add an elite two-way player on an expiring contract to their top six. The Colorado Avalanche had inquired about him. There was speculation that Boston was in the mix. But the Canucks jumped the line with an offer the Flames couldn’t refuse.
What does Lindholm bring to the Canucks? Versatility, for one. There’s been a years-long trend in the NHL in which traditional centers are also adept at producing on the wing. Lindholm certainly fits that template. He wins 55.5% of his faceoffs. As a team, Vancouver is 16th in the NHL (50%) in faceoff proficiency. Most importantly, Lindholm gives the Canucks the right-handed faceoff guy they sorely lacked on their depth chart.
Seriously, it’s like Lindholm was made in a lab for this Vancouver team. He can play on a power play that’s already in the top 10 (25%) in the NHL. He can bolster a penalty kill that’s middle of the pack (80%). He’s a tremendous 5-on-5 defender, in particular in puck recovery. He was second for the Selke Trophy in 2021-22, although that might be because he scored 42 goals along with playing stellar defensively. The Selke is funny like that.
He’s also insurance against the Canucks losing one of their vital players to injury at any point down the stretch. The most important number for Vancouver this season is 49, or the number of games J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes and Brock Boeser have played — in other words, all of them.
What do the Canucks bring to Lindholm? A chance to get back to the offensive force he was two years ago. One of the most desirable attributes in an NHL player is to thrive with high-end talent. Lindholm’s offensive apex came while playing on a line with Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau. His scoring dropped by 18 points after they left Calgary, propped up by his chemistry with Tyler Toffoli. Then Toffoli was traded to New Jersey, and Lindholm’s productivity fell off a cliff this season to under two points per 60 minutes (1.9) in all situations.
Vancouver can slot Lindholm with Miller, who had 67 points through 49 games. Or on a line with Pettersson and Boeser. He can play on their first power-play unit. It’s like going from an offensive boxed lunch in Calgary to a veritable buffet in Vancouver.
Given the Canucks’ cap situation next season, one assumes Lindholm is a rental. If that’s the case, fine: Lindholm is an outstanding acquisition, a nitro boost to a team already cruising at the top of the conference. But it did come at a cost.

There were two trades last season that might have informed this one.
When the Canucks traded center Bo Horvat to the Islanders, they received a roster player (Anthony Beauvillier), a top prospect (Aatu Raty) and a conditional first-round pick in 2023 that they flipped for defenseman Filip Hronek. Horvat ended up signing an eight-year extension with the Islanders a few days later.
The Blues traded center Ryan O’Reilly to the Maple Leafs last season in a complicated three-way trade with Minnesota that included salary retention. In the end, the Leafs gave up two prospects, a first-rounder, a second-rounder, a third-rounder and a fourth-rounder. O’Reilly left as a free agent for Nashville.
So how did the Flames do within that context? Pretty good, actually, especially considering they didn’t retain any salary.
Andrei Kuzmenko needed to get away from coach Rick Tocchet, who wanted him to play “the right way” and wasn’t going to give ice time to a player he believed was a defensive liability during this outstanding season for the Canucks. It didn’t matter that he had 39 goals as a 26-year-old rookie last season. He had to earn his time with the team’s top players and Tocchet felt he hadn’t.
So it’s off to Calgary, where he’s signed through next season at a $5.5 million average annual value. He had the Flames on his no-trade list. GM Craig Conroy and coach Ryan Huska sold him on the promise that Kuzmenko would be placed in offensively advantageous situations. Perhaps he and Jonathan Huberdeau could find some mutually beneficial chemistry.
It would be absolutely shocking if the name Yegor Sharangovich didn’t come up. The Flames acquired him from the Devils in the Toffoli trade, gave him almost three minutes more ice time a game, and watching his offense blossom to the point where Sharangovich (20) has one fewer goal than Toffoli (21) this season.
If Kuzmenko can’t recapture the magic, he’s a free agent in the summer of 2025.
Of the two prospects, Brzustewicz is more intriguing than Jurmo, although the latter defenseman has improved this season while playing in Finland. Brzustewicz is a puck-moving blue-liner who could top out at 100 points this season with the OHL Kitchener Rangers. There have been lingering questions about his ability to be an all-around player at the NHL level, but it’s hard to ignore that kind of offensive spark.
The Flames pulled a first-rounder for Lindholm too, albeit one that could practically be a high second-rounder given how good the Canucks are. That fourth-rounder turns into a third-rounder if the Canucks make the Western Conference final.
It’s a potentially impressive haul for (yet another) free agent who wasn’t signing back in Calgary. For a franchise that’s still reeling from those defections, it’s another strong step toward whatever the next phase of the Flames ends up being. — Greg Wyshynski
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Sports
Hicks, ex-owner of Rangers and Stars, dies at 79
Published
1 hour agoon
December 7, 2025By
admin
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Associated Press
Dec 7, 2025, 02:44 AM ET
DALLAS — Tom Hicks, the Texas businessman and philanthropist who owned two Dallas-area professional sports franchises and an English Premier League soccer team, died Saturday. He was 79.
Spokesperson Lisa LeMaster said in statement that Hicks died peacefully in Dallas surrounded by family.
Hicks owned the NHL’s Dallas Stars from 1995 to 2011, winning the Stanley Cup in 1999. He also owned baseball’s Texas Rangers from 1998 to 2010, leading them to three American West Division titles and a World Series appearance. In 2007, he acquired a 50% stake in Liverpool.
“Being shoulder to shoulder with him was always about more than ballparks and stadiums, though,” Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said in a statement. “It was about personal respect, trust and friendship. We shared a lot of miles together, and I’ll miss him greatly. My heart goes out to his family.”
Hicks co-founded Hicks & Haas in 1984 and helped reshape private equity and investing strategy. He served on the University of Texas’s board of regents from 1994 to 1999.
“Tom Hicks was an innovative businessman and a pioneer in private equity,” fellow Texas businessman Ross Perot Jr. said in a statement. “He combined his commitment to business and sports through his ownership of the Stars and the Rangers.”
Hicks is survived by his wife of 35 years, Cinda Cree Hicks, and his six children — Thomas Ollis Hicks Jr., Mack Hardin Hicks, John Alexander Hicks, Robert Bradley Hicks, William Cree Hicks and Catherine Forgrave Hicks.
His children released a joint statement, saying:
“Of everything he accomplished in his remarkable life, Tom Hicks’s most cherished title was, ‘Dad.’ No matter the trials and tribulations he faced in life, he was constant in his generosity and love for his family. He remains a guiding force for our family, and we are deeply honored to continue expanding his legacy. Although we are devastated by this loss, we are profoundly grateful to have been his children.”
Sports
Final bowl projections: Predicting every postseason game
Published
2 hours agoon
December 7, 2025By
admin

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Kyle Bonagura
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Kyle Bonagura
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
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Mark Schlabach
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Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
Dec 7, 2025, 01:00 AM ET
After a thrilling championship weekend, the games have all been played and it’s time to wait for the final College Football Playoff rankings and bowl assignments. Does Alabama make the playoff? What about Miami and Notre Dame? And what is the trickle-down effect of those decisions on bowl season?
We don’t need to wait for the official matchups.
ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out.
Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season

College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
All times Eastern
Friday, Dec. 19
8 p.m., ABC, ESPN
Saturday, Dec. 20
Noon, ABC, ESPN
3:30 p.m., TNT
7:30 p.m., TNT
Bonagura: No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon
Bonagura: No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss
Bonagura: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
Schlabach: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
Schlabach: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Ohio State
CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Indiana
CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Georgia
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Georgia
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Indiana
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 3 Ohio State

Complete bowl season schedule
Matchups in bold have already been announced
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
South Carolina State vs. Prairie View A&M
Bucked Up LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
8 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Washington vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Washington vs. Boise State
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Texas State
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Troy
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Old Dominion vs. South Florida
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Louisiana vs. Delaware
Thursday, Dec. 18
Xbox Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN2
Missouri State vs. Arkansas State
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl Presented by Engine
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana Tech vs. Georgia Southern
Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. Georgia Southern
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. UConn
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. UConn
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Washington State vs. Utah State
Schlabach: Ohio vs. San Diego State
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Florida International vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Florida International vs. Miami (Ohio)
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Southern Miss
Schlabach: Kennesaw State vs. Southern Miss
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Texas State vs. Louisiana Tech
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
California vs. Hawai’i
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Northwestern vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Northwestern vs. Central Michigan
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Kansas State
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Iowa State
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Utah State
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisville vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Louisville vs. East Carolina
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Penn State vs. Pitt
Schlabach: Penn State vs. Clemson
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Army
Schlabach: NC State vs. Army
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Virginia vs. TCU
Schlabach: Duke vs. TCU
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Ohio vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: East Carolina vs. New Mexico
Schlabach: Washington State vs. New Mexico
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Miami vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Miami vs. Vanderbilt
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Houston vs. Missouri
Monday, Dec. 29
JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UNLV vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Memphis
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Western Michigan
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Western Kentucky
Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. LSU
Schlabach: Illinois vs. LSU
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: BYU vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Pitt vs. Arizona State
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Texas
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Texas
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Duke vs. Kennesaw State
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. North Texas
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Navy
Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. Navy
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Troy
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Virginia
Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: SMU vs. Arizona
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona
Sports
Projecting the final CFP top 12: Where does Alabama land?
Published
2 hours agoon
December 7, 2025By
admin

Someone is going to be upset — and it’s not just ACC champion Duke, which likely will be excluded from the playoff in favor of Sun Belt champion James Madison.
It might be the entire ACC that is fuming.
With Alabama losing to Georgia in the SEC championship game, the College Football Playoff selection committee’s biggest decision Saturday night will be how far to drop the Tide — and the result could mean the difference for Miami’s playoff hopes. The focus of the final ranking on Selection Day (Noon ET, ESPN) will be where it has been all season — on Notre Dame, Alabama and Miami.
Will the three-loss Tide earn the committee’s final at-large bid as the SEC runner-up? Or will Alabama’s poor performance against Georgia open the door for Notre Dame and Miami to finish in the top 10?
Here’s our prediction for what the committee might do in its sixth and final ranking on Selection Day.

Projecting the top 12
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Why they could be here: The Big Ten champions are the only undefeated team left in the country, and they earned the best win of the season by defeating the committee’s No. 1 team, Ohio State. The Hoosiers entered Saturday ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, No. 1 in total efficiency and No. 4 in game control — and that was before they beat Ohio State.
Why they could be lower: This isn’t a realistic scenario.
Need to know: Indiana won its first Big Ten title since 1967 (shared with Minnesota and Purdue) and its first outright Big Ten title since 1945.
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Why they could be here: The Buckeyes have arguably the best loss of the season — to the committee’s No. 2 team — and it was a close game that went down to the wire. Ohio State still has two wins against CFP top-25 teams in Texas and Michigan, and the committee has been impressed all season with the Buckeyes’ talent and consistent dominance.
Why they could be lower: Without the win against the Hoosiers, Ohio State’s best win is a close home game against Texas — a team that Georgia hammered 35-10. Georgia and Texas Tech also have multiple wins against CFP top-25 opponents. Ohio State’s strength of schedule was ranked No. 46 entering Saturday, while Georgia was No. 25.
Need to know: Even if the committee drops Ohio State lower, it’s highly unlikely the Buckeyes fall out of the top four. They still have a strong case for a first-round bye as the Big Ten runner-up.
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Why they could be here: The SEC champs avenged their regular-season loss to Alabama, and they did it in resounding fashion. The Bulldogs’ lone loss to the Tide is better than Texas Tech’s loss to Arizona, even though the committee knows the Red Raiders were without their starting quarterback in that game. Nobody has a better loss, though, than Ohio State, the Big Ten runner-up. Indiana and Ohio State entered Saturday ranked No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in ESPN’s strength of record metric, and playing each other in the Big Ten title game will only boost that. Georgia also has a convincing victory against Texas, which should still be the committee’s No. 13 team. Wins against Tennessee, Ole Miss and Georgia Tech helped the Bulldogs to a top-five strength of record entering Saturday.
Why they could be higher: The committee might drop Ohio State to No. 3 because its strength of schedule is lower, and because of the common opponent in Texas. Georgia beat Texas 35-10, while Ohio State beat the Longhorns 14-7 in the season opener. Some committee members could believe Georgia has a stronger overall résumé.
Need to know: The Bulldogs’ 28-7 SEC title game win was Georgia’s largest margin of victory over Alabama since 1976 (won 21-0).
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Why they could be here: The Red Raiders dominated BYU for a second time this season, clinching a top-four finish and a first-round bye as the Big 12 champs. The committee has been impressed by how consistently they’ve owned the margin of victory this season, ranking No. 2 in the country in points margin per game (31.5) and No. 1 in points margin (410) entering Saturday. The Red Raiders’ defense, particularly up front, has also separated Texas Tech from other one-loss contenders. The committee has considered all season that Texas Tech’s lone loss came Oct. 18 at Arizona State when Red Raiders starting quarterback Behren Morton was injured.
Why they could be higher: Texas Tech entered Saturday No. 3 in total efficiency — behind Indiana and Ohio State. Georgia was No. 11. Defensively, the Red Raiders are No. 1.
Need to know: Texas Tech entered Saturday with the worst schedule strength (59) of the top-four contenders, and the lowest strength of record (10th).
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Why they could be here: With Georgia and Texas Tech winning their respective conference championship games, the No. 5 spot is likely the Ducks’ Selection Day ceiling. Oregon earned a respectable road win at Washington, a top-25 win against No. 16 USC, and the Nov. 8 victory at Iowa was ultimately against a CFP top-25 team, as the four-loss Hawkeyes came back into the ranking at No. 23 last week. Oregon has also impressed the committee with its top-five ranking in offensive and defensive efficiency. It also doesn’t hurt that the Ducks’ only loss is to the Big Ten champs, Indiana.
Why they could be higher: It’s unlikely that Ohio State drops behind Oregon. They both played the Hoosiers, and they both lost. The committee could compare their wins, but Ohio State’s victory against Texas trumps Oregon’s best win against USC.
Need to know: The No. 5 seed is one of the most desirable because Oregon gets home-field advantage and also plays the No. 12 seed, which this year will likely be James Madison, the Sun Belt champs.
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Why they could be here: The selection committee rewarded Ole Miss in its last ranking for its regular-season win against rival Mississippi State, but also bumped up the Rebels because Texas A&M dropped after losing to Texas. The Rebels’ Oct. 18 loss at Georgia will keep them behind the Bulldogs, but the Oct. 25 win at Oklahoma gives Ole Miss an edge against the Sooners. The Rebels’ 45-10 victory Sept. 20 against Tulane is one of their best wins. The Green Wave won the American title and clinched a spot in the CFP.
Why they could be higher: Now that Tulane is the American champ, the committee could consider giving Ole Miss a boost above Oregon for beating the Green Wave. That’s the kind of result that could impact an idle team’s résumé.
Need to know: Even without former coach Lane Kiffin, the Rebels should still be a lock to host a first-round game.
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Why they could be here: Because the Aggies didn’t play Alabama or Georgia this season, the SEC championship game didn’t impact their résumé while idle. The Aggies have only one win against a team in the CFP top 25, and that was the 41-40 victory at Notre Dame on Sept. 13. Still, the committee has a lot of respect for the Aggies’ four road wins.
Why they could be higher: It would be surprising to see Texas A&M move because Texas Tech won the Big 12 and won’t sink, and the loser of the Big Ten championship game is unlikely to drop outside of the top four.
Need to know: The Aggies should remain in position to host a first-round home game, and if they remain the No. 7 seed, they would face the No. 10 team, which is the committee’s toughest decision this week. Though the Aggies didn’t play Alabama during the regular season, it’s possible they could meet in the first round.
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Why they could be here: The Sooners have earned their spot in the CFP thanks to an elite defense and their ability to continue to find ways to win — even when the offense has been average. The committee respects OU’s back-to-back road victories at Tennessee and Alabama. The Tide’s loss to Georgia doesn’t diminish the value of that win, especially because Alabama can still finish in the CFP field. The Sooners will still have the head-to-head tiebreaker, though, over Alabama. Oklahoma’s loss to Ole Miss will keep the Sooners behind the Rebels, but the committee has kept OU ahead of Texas despite the Sooners’ loss to the Longhorns because Texas has a third loss.
Why they could be higher: It’s unlikely the Sooners move up after being idle because Saturday’s results didn’t directly impact their place.
Need to know: With Alabama losing in the SEC championship game, the Sooners should still be safe as the last at-large team to host a first-round game.
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Why they could be here: The Irish benefited from BYU losing to Texas Tech — preventing the Big 12 from having two teams in — and when Georgia beat Alabama soundly in the SEC title game. Arguably the biggest debate in the room all season has been between Notre Dame and Alabama, with the committee members seesawing between the two until Alabama’s Iron Bowl win tipped the scales last week for a few committee members who had been on the fence. With the loss to Georgia, though, the balance should swing back in Notre Dame’s favor, pushing Notre Dame safely into the bracket at No. 9.
Why they could be lower: If Alabama falls behind Miami, and the Canes are right next to Notre Dame, the committee could consider Miami’s head-to-head win over Notre Dame in the season opener and flip them. Even if that happened, though, both teams would still be in, and it would impact only seeding.
Need to know: Notre Dame has been in the committee’s top 10 in all five rankings this season. Last year, under the 12-team format, there were six teams that were ranked in the top 10 of every poll leading up to Selection Day; all six of them made the CFP (Oregon, Texas, Penn State, Indiana, Ohio State, Notre Dame), according to ESPN Research.
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Why they could be here: Georgia beat Alabama soundly in the SEC championship game — with the selection members watching together. The group had called out Alabama’s inability to run the ball since the loss to Florida State, and it was exposed again against a relentless Georgia defense, finishing with minus-3 yards on the ground (with minus-28 of that coming from quarterback Ty Simpson). Alabama had the edge against that defense in a 24-21 win Sept. 27 in Athens. Georgia gave up 262 yards in the first half that day as Alabama scored on four of five possessions. The committee will consider Alabama’s win that day against the eventual SEC champs (along with victories against Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee). Alabama’s win against Georgia is better than Miami’s victory against Notre Dame.
Why they could be lower: Alabama was outplayed Saturday and Simpson was off-target. And the Tide lost the season opener to Florida State. If the committee drops the Tide lower, it won’t be as a punishment for playing in the SEC title game — it will be because of how Alabama performed in it.
Need to know: Same as Notre Dame above, Alabama has been ranked in the selection committee’s top 10 every week.
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Why they could be here: With Alabama and BYU losing, it’s possible Miami and Notre Dame get in, but for that to happen, Alabama has to drop behind Miami. The Canes are still on the outside in this projection because the committee has believed each week that Notre Dame is the better team, and they were both idle Saturday. The committee would not intentionally put Alabama between Miami and Notre Dame, so it doesn’t have to deal with the head-to-head — that’s not how the voting works — but the Tide could fall there because the committee recognized Alabama was put in a position where it had to beat the same team twice in an additional game. Miami finished the season with two losses to unranked opponents, while Alabama and Notre Dame had losses to top-10 teams.
Why they could be higher: Alabama lost to Florida State, which Miami beat. The selection committee could drop Alabama to No. 11 behind Miami because of its third loss — and poor play — in a lopsided game against Georgia. That would open the door for Miami and Notre Dame to earn the final two at-large spots, regardless of the order.
Need to know: This depends in part on whom the committee is comparing the Canes with — Alabama or Notre Dame. It has been well-documented how close Miami and Notre Dame are. But if the group is comparing Miami and Alabama side-by-side, the Tide could have the edge. Alabama entered Saturday ranked No. 8 in strength of record, while Miami was No. 14. The Canes were No. 44 in strength of schedule, while Bama was No. 11.
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Why they could be here: At 11-2, BYU is lumped in the group of two-loss teams at the bottom of the top 12, so the committee will compare the Cougars against Notre Dame and Miami. BYU lost by double digits again, though, to Texas Tech, and that likely will cause the Cougars to drop behind the Canes. BYU has two CFP top-25 wins: in double overtime at current No. 18 Arizona, and 24-21 at current No. 15 Utah. Though BYU’s wins aren’t as impressive as what Texas accomplished against Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma, the committee could separate the two in part by their losses. The Longhorns’ defeat to Florida, along with their other losses, is holding back Texas in the committee meeting room.
Why they could be higher: BYU’s only two losses are to the Big 12 champions and a top-four team. Those two losses are better than Miami’s losses to SMU and Louisville. BYU also entered Saturday ranked No. 6 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, and it won’t be diminished by playing a top-four team. Miami was No. 14 and didn’t play. BYU also had a slight edge over Miami in strength of schedule.
Need to know: BYU will be excluded from the playoff for James Madison, which will earn the No. 12 seed as the Sun Belt champion.

Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Indiana (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Ohio State
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 James Madison (Sun Belt champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Tulane (American champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 James Madison/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
No. 11 Tulane/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Indiana
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