As misery and despair stalk the Tory party, talk of changing leader is getting louder

Published

2 months ago

March 17, 2024

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Rishi Sunak hopes three key moments this week will turn around his fortunes after his standing in the party plummeted.

The PM is hoping Monday’s speech on the economy, Wednesday’s end of term appearance before Tory MPs and new inflation figures due out the same day, which could be close to the Bank of England target of 2%, will stem the bleeding of his premiership.

The Politics at Jack and Sam’s podcast conducted a wide-ranging survey of the Tory party, across the main factions and wings, and found misery and despair, and a revived talk of changing leader if things do not improve.

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Although senior figures still put this at below 50%, it is now being widely discussed and is likely to revive if the party does not do well in the 2 May local elections, which is anticipated.

Sunak has lost some of the goodwill and support of the one nation group of moderate MPs, on top of the existing disquiet amongst Red Wall MPs.

This comes in particular after the handling of the race row involving Tory mega-donor Frank Hester, although is also a consequence of the lack of impact for the budget and defection of Lee Anderson have also contributed to the change in mood.

“Previously the party – apart from hardcore Boris-ites and Trussites – thought that it would be ridiculous to have another change of leadership in this parliament. That feeling has been weakened by the polls not moving,” said one One Nation Tory.

“It is certainly true that if you can find someone who can be anointed leader in a coronation rather than a contest, it might be worth it to save 50-100 seats.”

One name that appears to fit the bill for several different parts of the Tory parliamentary party is Commons leader and two-time leadership contender Penny Mordaunt.

Some on the right say she might be their compromise candidate as she is pro-Brexit, performs well in the Commons, and would run a “balanced” government post-Sunak.

A 2019 Tory MP told me for the podcast that they are getting spontaneous constituency correspondence saying “thank God Penny is in the running” and “I hope she’s the party’s future”.

However one source said she believes there is no way there could be a change of leader without a contest and believes there would have to be a general election straight away if Sunak went, making the job a lot less appealing.

Tory MPs will spend much of Monday together in the division lobbies to vote to reject amendments inserted by the House of Lords into the Rwanda bill, and there will be a better sense of the mood after that, we say on the Politics at Jack and Sam’s podcast.

Politics

Bitfinex database breach ‘seems fake,’ says CTO

Published

4 hours ago

May 5, 2024

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<div>Bitfinex database breach 'seems fake,' says CTO</div>

Bitfinex CTO Paolo Ardoino explained that if the hacking group was telling the truth, they would have asked for a ransom, but he “couldn’t find any request.”

Politics

Labour taking ‘Tory crown jewel’ feels like a momentum shift

Published

6 hours ago

May 5, 2024

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Labour taking 'Tory crown jewel' feels like a momentum shift

It was a wafer-thin victory, but a huge win.

The symbolism of Labour taking the West Midlands mayor, a jewel in the Tory crown, could be felt in the room as Labour activists gathered in Birmingham to celebrate the win with their new mayor Richard Parker and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer.

There are moments on election journeys when the momentum shifts – and this win felt like one of them.

“We humbly asked [the voters] to put their trust and confidence in a changed Labour Party and they did. And that is a significant piece of political history that we’ve made here today,” said Sir Keir at his victory rally.

“So the message out of these elections, the last now the last stop before we go into that general election, is that the country wants change.

“I hope the prime minister is listening and gives the opportunity to the country to vote as a whole in a general election as soon as possible.”

This win gave them the boost that was missing when they won the Blackpool South by-election on a massive 26-point swing, but then failed to pick up the hundreds of council seats they were chasing.

This win, on just 1,508 votes or 0.25 per cent of the vote, was a body blow for a Conservative party that believed they could just about cling on. Ben Houchen, the Tees Valley mayor, is now the last Tory standing.

For Labour, then a moment to bookmark.

Just as Boris Johnson’s Hartlepool by-election win in 2021 was a low point for Sir Keir – he told me this week that he considered resigning over the loss because he thought it showed he was the barrier to Labour’s recovery – this too will feel devastating not just for Andy Street but for the PM too.

Labour has beaten him in a street fight. He’s bloodied with Sir Keir now emboldened.

“This was the one result we really needed,” said one senior Labour figure. “It’s been our top focus for the past week and symbolically a very important win.”

And Labour needed the boost, because, as Professor Michael Thrasher pointed out in his Sky News’ national vote share projection calculated from the local election results, Sir Keir was not picking up the sort of vote share that Tony Blair was winning in the run-up to the 1997 Labour landslide.

His latest calculation of a 35% vote share for Labour and 26% for the Tories, put Sir Keir winning a general election but short of a majority.

What the West Midlands mayoral win did for Sir Keir was to give him a clear narrative that he is coming for the Tories and will do what he needs to take them down.

It raises inevitable questions about what is next for Rishi Sunak. The prime minister had nowhere to go today, not one win to celebrate. The worst performance in council elections in 40 years, was already pretty much as bad as it gets before the loss of Andy Street. The former Conservative mayor was magnanimous towards the prime minister, saying the loss was his alone.

But colleagues will not be so generous. One former cabinet minister said this loss was “devastating”. “We’re done and there’s no appetite to move against him,” said the senior MP. Many Tories tell me they are now resigned to defeat and believe Mr Sunak and his team needed to own it, rather than the rest of the party.

The coming days might be bumpy, the mood will be stony. But Tories tell me not much will actually change for them.

For Sir Keir, he now needs to sell not the changed Labour Party, but his vision for changing the country. The West Mids mayor’s win was dazzling, but it could have so easily gone the other way. And as Mr Sunak fights to survive, Labour still has to fight hard to win.