A crisis of trust in our politics spells trouble for the government
The morning after the 2019 general election, Boris Johnson pledged to people in the North East who had voted Conservative for the first time that he and the party would “repay your trust”.
That year was the Brexit election, and the Conservatives ultimately won because they and Mr Johnson were trusted to “get Brexit done” – Jeremy Corbyn was not.
Five years on, exclusive polling by YouGov for Sky News finds that since then, the number of people saying they “almost never” trust the British government to place the needs of the nation above the interests of their own party has nearly doubled – from 26% to 49%.
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This spiralling level of distrust has been greatest for the bedrock of the Conservative’s electoral coalition – those who voted to leave the EU in 2016.
The percentage of Leavers saying they “almost never” trust government has leapt by 33 points (from 23% to 56%) since the last election – twice as much as the increase for Remainers.
It is the sort of people who live in places like Grimsby and Cleethorpes, which voted heavily to Leave the EU – by nearly 70% – who have lost most trust in British politics since 2019.
A disconnected politics
Our polling reveals a deep loss of public faith in British politics since the last election.
This is all the more remarkable given the “rally” in public trust enjoyed by the government at the height of the pandemic.
Nearly three-quarters of voters believe politicians don’t care what people like them think – this has risen from 51% to 73% over the past five years.
There has been a similar rise in the number of people who feel politicians in Westminster ignore the issues they care about – up from 50% to 67%.
A geography of discontent
Despite Mr Johnson’s pledge to repay the trust of new Conservative voters in the North, and promises of “levelling up”, there is a widespread view outside London that politicians in Westminster don’t care very much or at all about their part of the country.
The percentage of people saying politicians don’t care “at all” about their region is highest in Wales at 47% and the north of England at 39%.
This feeling is higher among Leave voters – 42% – than Remain voters -24%.
Five years of Conservative government has not delivered the legacy of trust hoped for by Mr Johnson.
‘They are all the same’
Perhaps most telling of all, the public currently see the parties as more like each other than at any election since 1964 – when polling records began.
Voters are more likely than ever before at 40% to say there is not much difference between Labour and the Conservatives, and less likely than ever to say there is “a great deal of difference” between them at just 12%.
This contrasts with 2019 when 47% of people said there was a great deal of difference between the parties.
Trust is about delivering on promises
Our research has found that across the world, one of the most important things needed for voters to consider politicians to be trustworthy is that they stick to their word and do what they say – so we asked whether the parties try to keep their promises.
Some 71% of people think the Conservative Party do not try to keep their promises, notably including 61% of 2019 Conservative voters.
Views on Labour are more mixed, with 47% of people saying they don’t try to keep their promises and 27% saying they do.
For the government, this deep public antipathy spells trouble for the next election.
In many parts of the country, voters feel politicians don’t care what they think or care about their area, ignore the issues that matter to them, and don’t offer a meaningful choice at the ballot box.
If Labour does benefit from a prevailing mood of public distrust at that election, its honeymoon may not last long as it will soon face the same winds of discontent.
The battle for West Midlands mayor is down to the wire after a partial recount of votes was ordered.
Incumbent Tory Andy Street’s hope of securing a third term in office remains on a knife-edge in the face of a stiff challenge by Labour’s Richard Parker.
The outcome of the contest is critical to Rishi Sunak after a hammering in the local elections, which saw the Conservative Party lose more than half of its councillors who stood for re-election across England.
It threatens to ramp back up the pressure on the prime minister, who was hoping for a repeat of the success enjoyed by Conservative Ben Houchen who held on as the mayor of Tees Valley and to dampen rumblings of rebellion among some Tory MPs.
Former Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson in the Electoral Dysfunction podcast said the rebels who want to move against Mr Sunak and change leader “would have a huge amount of fuel” if the party lost “one or other or both of Teeside and West Midlands”.
Mr Street had sought to distance himself from the Conservative brand during his campaign and instead ran on a personal platform.
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Sky News recently revealed Mr Street was sending out election literature with an endorsement from former prime minister Boris Johnson which urged people to “forget about the government”.
Read more:
The winners and losers
Charts tell story of Conservative collapse
Analysis: Labour’s future success is less clear-cut
His campaign website also made no mention of Mr Sunak on its homepage and was coloured in green rather than Conservative blue.
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Politics
Boris Johnson pays tribute to polling station staff who refused to let him vote without photo ID
Boris Johnson has paid tribute to the villagers who Sky News revealed turned him away from a polling station when he tried to vote without a valid photo ID – under rules he introduced.
The former prime minister said he attempted to cast his ballot using a magazine sleeve with his name and address on as proof but was prevented from doing so.
The requirement to provide photo ID was introduced by Mr Johnson during his time in Downing Street as part of the Elections Act 2022.
The move was controversial over fears it would bar people from voting, particularly among disadvantaged groups.
Local election live: Khan likely to cling on to London – as West Midlands on knife-edge
Mr Johnson had been seeking to vote in South Oxfordshire, where a police and crime commissioner for Thames Valley was being elected.
Writing in his Daily Mail column, he said: “I want to pay a particular tribute to the three villagers who on Thursday rightly turned me away when I appeared in the polling station with nothing to prove my identity except the sleeve of my copy of Prospect magazine, on which my name and address had been printed.
“I showed it to them and they looked very dubious… within minutes I was back with my driving licence and voted Tory.”
Read more:
The winners and losers
Charts tell story of Conservative collapse
Analysis: Labour’s future success is less clear-cut
Thursday’s election is the first time many voters in England and Wales have had to present ID to vote under provisions first rolled out at last year’s local elections.
As well as driving licences, other acceptable forms of ID include passports, proof of age cards, blue badges, and some concessionary travel cards.
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
The government has also said it intends to make veterans’ ID cards a valid form of voter identification after former service personnel were turned away.
Veterans’ minister Johnny Mercer apologised to those who had been unable to use the document to vote, vowing to “do all I can” to have it added to the list of valid identification.
Labour said the government has had years to ensure the card was included, having begun rolling out the scheme in 2019.
Politics
Labour has ‘searching’ to do after losing votes in areas with high Muslim population, Jess Phillips says
The Labour Party has some “searching” to do following its underperformance in areas with a high Muslim population, according to MP Jess Phillips.
Speaking to political editor Beth Rigby on the Electoral Dysfunction podcast, the Birmingham Yardley MP said her party will have to “wake up and face” the issues that lead to it losing seats to the Greens, independents and the Workers Party of Britain.
Ms Phillips said: “There are some issues with regards to independents and Greens that the Labour Party is going to have to wake up and face tomorrow morning, Monday morning, whenever it is.
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“There are some results in places, you know, Labour heartlands, where they maintain the council, of course, in places like Newcastle where the Greens are making strides.
“I very much expect, as the mayoral votes come in, that in places like Birmingham, Bradford, places with high Muslim populations, as we’ve seen overnight in Oldham, that the Labour Party will have some questions that they have, and some searching to do themselves.
“However, you cannot spin it any other way than this is a good night for the Labour Party.”
Analysis from Sky News shows that areas with a Muslim population below 5% saw the Labour Party’s vote share increase by 1.1 percentage points.
But areas with a Muslim population above 20% saw Sir Keir Starmer’s party lose 17.9 points from their vote share.
Local election results: Follow them as they come in here
One of the issues that is thought to be impacting the Muslim vote is Labour’s stance on the Israel-Hamas war.
Labour lost control of councils in Oldham and Kirklees, with victories for independent candidates opposed to the party’s stance on the war in Gaza.
It is hard to crystallise the exact impact on the elections, as a number of Labour councillors have defected from the party over Labour’s stance on the Middle East conflict.
George Galloway’s Workers Party of Britain also targeted Labour seats on the issue of Gaza, and won four – including unseating the deputy leader of Manchester council Luthfur Rahman in Longsight.
The BBC reported that Labour were pessimistic about their chances in the race for the West Midlands mayoralty – which covers Ms Phillip’s constituency – with one journalist saying a Labour source told them: “It’s the Middle East, not West Midlands that will have won Street the Mayoralty. Once again Hamas are the real villains.”
This was decried by the Labour Party on the record, with shadow paymaster general Jonathan Ashworth saying: “This is utterly unacceptable. I’m pleased the Labour Party have quickly and rightly condemned it.
“This is a racist quote which has not come from anyone who is speaking on behalf of the party or whose values are welcome in the party.”
Yvette Cooper, Labour’s shadow home secretary, was asked on the Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge about whether the party’s stance will change.
She said the party does “recognise” the party’s stance on the conflict has been a “factor in some areas”.
Ms Cooper added there were areas where Gaza was “partly” a factor and there were also “council factors” as well.
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She added: “So it’s lots of different things.
“But undoubtedly many people feel really strongly about this – and rightly because tens of thousands of people have been killed, including the majority of them women and children.
“We desperately need an immediate ceasefire, but we have the hostages released. We need the urgent humanitarian action that’s needed.”
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