Canada’s toughest roster decisions for the 4 Nations Face-Off
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Kristen Shilton, ESPN NHL reporter
There’s something to be said for having options. Canada’s 4 Nations Face-Off GM Don Sweeney — alongside associate GM Jim Nill — is going to have an abundance of them when it comes to setting his country’s roster for the upcoming tournament.
We’re just under a month away from the Dec. 2 deadline for management of each country — that’s Canada, the USA, Finland and Sweden — to submit their roster of 20 skaters and three goaltenders for the event taking place on Feb. 12-20.
The NHL has eschewed its usual All-Star Game in favor of this tournament, but have no fear: Canada alone will practically carry enough talent to mirror that of any league-wide showcase.
Choosing from the country’s best is a tantalizing thought. Given the fortune of faces to choose from, who will actually make Sweeney’s squad? And which players will be the toughest to leave off the list?
Oh, and — who exactly is going to tend goal for this team?
Each nation announced six players that would be on the team back on June 28. For Canada, that’s defenseman Cale Makar, along with forwards Sidney Crosby, Nathan MacKinnon, Brad Marchand, Connor McDavid and Brayden Point.
The countdown is officially on for decision day. The roster itself is bound to contain a surprise (or two) so instead of a full-blown projection, we’re breaking down each position with the skaters most likely to be a lock, and the ones on whom a decision will be hardest.
Centers
The shoo-ins: Connor McDavid, Sidney Crosby, Nathan MacKinnon
Stating the obvious: Canada will be deep down the middle. That’s true whether MacKinnon is lining up there or sliding to the wing (something he has already told reporters he’s open to doing) and Brayden Point ends up in this category. Either way, when you can roll out these three in any capacity on the same lineup card, you’re doing alright.
The tough calls: The fourth center spot for Canada is likely Nick Suzuki‘s to lose. He has a finely tuned 200-foot game and takes on Montreal’s hardest matchups every night, all while elevating his teammates in the process. That’s a well-rounded addition to the roster. However, it won’t be easy for Sweeney to dole out roles here, while also considering who could potentially fill winger slots instead.
Ryan O’Reilly would be an excellent checking-line center option, and has Stanley Cup and Conn Smythe pedigree on his resume. Steven Stamkos also comes with ample winning experience, and his power-play acumen (an accurate bomb of a one-timer) make him a versatile extra piece. His leadership is a valuable commodity, too.
In terms of pure production, Mark Scheifele just scored 42 goals two years ago and he already is averaging over a point per game this season for the red-hot Winnipeg Jets. Anthony Cirelli is another candidate for the fourth-line center role, given his strong start to the season (12 points in 11 games) and, of course, his connection to Canada’s head coach (and Tampa Bay Lightning bench boss) Jon Cooper.
The real conundrum for Canada here is whether they’ll prioritize flash and scoring without a balance of some grit-and-grind energy. Although that could always be found in the country’s stable of superior winger options that we’ll be looking into next. But does Canada need to incorporate a certain physicality to be at its best? Or just allow the fast-paced, free-flowing offense it can easily create be their guide? It’s only a two-week affair we’re talking about. No need for Canada to overthink things … right?
Wingers
The shoo-ins: Brayden Point, Mitch Marner, Sam Reinhart
It was mentioned earlier but should go without saying: Point is a terrific center and could play there too. Reinhart was second in NHL goal scoring last season (with 57 markers) while Marner consistently ranks among the league’s most dynamic playmakers.
This trio is a great point of entry into a long list of difficult decisions.
The tough calls: Zach Hyman could be among the sure things here … if not for a bout of early-season struggles. The Oilers’ winger tallied 54 goals last season — third-most in the league — but has just two points in 11 games in 2024-25. If that trend continues, someone else might leapfrog over Hyman on the depth chart.
The same goes for Quinton Byfield. He’s right on the cusp of this roster. Frankly, he might be the hardest call of all. How Byfield plays the next month could ultimately decide his fate. After putting up 20 goals last season, the 22-year-old is off to a slow start with just five assists in his first 11 games. If Byfield can pad those stats over the next couple weeks with improved play, Sweeney will have to take notice of the young King who can also play center.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is weathering a mediocre opening to this campaign (four points in 11 games) that may see him bumped in favor of someone like Brandon Hagel. The latter would surely get Cooper’s vote given how Hagel has been so important for Tampa Bay, and is having a great season (13 points in 11 games). Alexis Lafreniere‘s scorching start in New York (10 points in 10 games) also puts him firmly on the radar for a spot.
Brad Marchand comes with that get-under-your-skin element Canada may not have elsewhere, and remains productive (with nine points in 12 games so far) even at 36 years old. Not bad. Sam Bennett provides the same sort of sandpaper and Cup-winning history. Would having both Marchand and Bennett be too much of a good thing in that respect?
Mark Stone is another veteran player with a Cup on his resume — and is one of the best defensive forwards in the game — but his on-ice contributions are frequently overshadowed by trips to the injured list.
Mathew Barzal is a point-per-game player who seems to single-handedly keep the offensively challenged Islanders afloat, and he can play at center or on the wing (the 27-year-old transitioned from one position to the other when New York acquired Bo Horvat in 2023). That determination alone might be enough to sway Sweeney in his direction. Barzal hit the long-term injured reserve, and will miss four to six weeks, which obviously impacts the decision-making process here too.
Travis Konecny will get a long look. He’s strung together consecutive 30-goal seasons for Philadelphia, and has seemed to get better year over year.
On the topic of promise, no we haven’t left out/forgotten the youngest of Canada’s burgeoning forward group. Connor Bedard and Wyatt Johnston both deserve serious consideration to make this team. But where do they fit into how Sweeney wants to construct this group? Bedard and Johnston are sensational in their own rights, and can certainly handle themselves against the other club’s best players. This tournament is also an audition of sorts for Canada’s 2026 Olympic team (for which Sweeney and Nill will also be assistant general managers) and putting Bedard and/or Johnston on this stage to see how they do could plant seeds of confidence for what’s to come in 2026.
Defensemen
The shoo-ins: Cale Makar, Devon Toews
Hoo boy. This could be Sweeney’s Mt. Everest in creating Team Canada. It’s simple enough to tap Makar — a four-time Norris Trophy finalist and one-time winner — and his teammate Toews as the nation’s top pairing.
From there, things get tricky.
The tough calls: Noah Dobson seems like an easy pick despite how overlooked his defensive play is following a stellar 2023-24 season. Shea Theodore is in the prime of his career with the Golden Knights, skilled with the puck and a special teams asset. All that should land him a slot. But he’ll have competition.
Theodore’s teammate Alex Pietrangelo makes sense from a pure defense perspective, and he’s an added veteran presence to what could be a relatively young defense corps. Josh Morrissey seems constantly overlooked for how good a player he’s become, and the way he can weave in some offense without sacrificing on the defensive side. Morgan Rielly will be on the long list as well, having made many a past appearance for Team Canada and continuing to perform at a high (and reliable) level.
Evan Bouchard is the real wild card for Canada’s back end. He anchors Edmonton’s power play using the same high-end passing and playmaking that make him a threat at even strength. However, Canada will have Makar for their power-play needs, and other options that can potentially bring more to the mix than Bouchard.
MacKenzie Weegar may lack name recognition, but he’s physical and fiery and that would balance out some of the finesse on which Canada’s blue line will be heavy.
Similar to Bedard and Johnston, Canada has an up-and-coming defensive star in Owen Power who they’ll definitely be testing for the Olympics. Is now the time to see what he’s got on a smaller stage?
It’s also important to note that Drew Doughty — currently sidelined by a broken ankle — is expected to be healthy by the time this tournament gets going. Will he move the needle for Sweeney and steal an extra spot perhaps? We can’t rule out the possibility.
There are almost too many right choices here to make a wrong one for Canada’s defense. The same might not be said for its goaltending.
Goaltenders
The shoo-ins: Jordan Binnington, Adin Hill
If Canada is going to have an Achilles Heel, it’s likely to be goaltending. In contrast to the embarrassment of riches Canada boasts everywhere else, there just aren’t the same number of elite-caliber choices in net.
Binnington is best suited as his country’s No. 1 goalie. The 31-year-old had a superb, and sorely underappreciated, 2023-24 season (.913 save percentage, 2.84 goals-against average) and that was while backstopping a Blues team that was lacking defensively. Binnington also rises to the occasion; it’s the biggest games and most charged-up moments where he seems to thrive (see: St. Louis’ run to a 2019 Stanley Cup victory). That’s good news for Canada.
Hill is an ideal backup. He replaced Logan Thompson as Vegas’ starter during their successful playoff trek to a Cup win in 2023, and had a strong follow-up campaign in 2023-24, with a .909 SV% and 2.71 GAA. He and Binnington would be a fine tandem.
Speaking of Thompson, he might have the inside track as the country’s third-stringer. Despite so-so stats (.876 SV%, 3.21 GAA), Thompson is 4-0-0 in his first season with the Capitals. Will that stave off the remaining competition?
The tough calls: Stuart Skinner would have been an obvious selection for Canada after the way he helped drag Edmonton to Game 7 of the Cup Final last season. But Stuart has been woefully unreliable at times — including out of the gate this season — and with limited spots, every positive or negative counts.
Montreal’s Sam Montembeault seemed like a good pick in theory, but Montembeault has been struggling for the Canadiens as of late and it’s hard to say if he’d perform better surrounded by Canada’s superior defense.
Cam Talbot is an intriguing name in the mix as well; he’s posted decent numbers early on for the Red Wings (.913 SV%, 3.16 GAA) and would bring veteran experience to the room.
Then there’s the poetic element to including Marc-Andre Fleury in this final season of his NHL career. However, Fleury’s numbers haven’t been great (.899 SV% and 2.93 GAA). Ditto for Darcy Kuemper, a solid veteran who’s consistent but unspectacular. That about sums up the majority of Canada’s goaltending options.
In the end, it could come down to two factors: who’s healthy, and who has the hottest hand. Considering all that can change in a month — and again from there — expect Sweeney to have contingency plans in place. He won’t be short on names (in most cases) to sift through, at least.
After four weeks of the season, we might have an idea about the true College Football Playoff contenders in each conference.
While a few of the top teams in the SEC and the Big Ten were off in Week 4, the Texas Tech Red Raiders, Indiana Hoosiers, Oklahoma Sooners and Miami Hurricanes got the spotlight.
A surprise team in the 2024 CFP, Indiana put up big numbers on the Illinois Fighting Illini. Fernando Mendoza threw five TD passes in the 63-10 win. The Hoosiers still have the Oregon Ducks and the Penn State Nittany Lions on the schedule, but Indiana passed a conference test in hopes of landing another playoff bid.
The Sooners are trying to jump into the SEC playoff picture in their second season in the league. Oklahoma opened conference play by rocking former Sooners quarterback Jackson Arnold and the Auburn Tigers. OU sacked Arnold 10 times in its 24-17 win.
Miami, one of only two AP top-five teams in action this week, got a test from the 1-3 Florida Gators before closing out a 26-7 win. The Canes’ defense held the Gators to 32 yards in the first half and kept DJ Lagway under 100 yards passing.
Here are our experts’ top 12 College Football Playoff picks:
Andrea Adelson: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. LSU 4. Oklahoma 5. Georgia 6. Oregon 7. Florida State 8. Texas A&M 9. Penn State 10. Indiana 11. TCU 12. Memphis
Kyle Bonagura: 1. Ohio State 2. Oregon 3. Georgia 4. Penn State 5. LSU 6. Miami 7. Florida State 8. Indiana 9. Oklahoma 10. Texas 11. Texas Tech 12. South Florida
Bill Connelly: 1. Oregon 2. Ohio State 3. Ole Miss 4. Texas A&M 5. Penn State 6. Miami 7. Georgia 8. Texas Tech 9. LSU 10. Florida State 11. Indiana 12. Memphis
David Hale: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Oregon 4. Georgia 5. Oklahoma 6. Penn State 7. Texas A&M 8. Texas 9. Indiana 10. Florida State 11. Texas Tech 12. Memphis
Max Olson: 1. Ohio State 2. Oregon 3. Miami 4. Georgia 5. LSU 6. Penn State 7. Texas A&M 8. Florida State 9. Texas Tech 10. Indiana 11. Texas 12. South Florida
Adam Rittenberg: 1. Ohio State 2. Georgia 3. Miami 4. Oregon 5. LSU 6. Penn State 7. Oklahoma 8. Florida State 9. Indiana 10. Texas Tech 11. Texas A&M 12. South Florida
Mark Schlabach: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Georgia 4. LSU 5. Oregon 6. Penn State 7. Florida State 8. Oklahoma 9. Texas Tech 10. Texas A&M 11. Indiana 12. South Florida
Jake Trotter: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Georgia 4. Penn State 5. LSU 6. Oregon 7. Oklahoma 8. Florida State 9. Texas Tech 10. Texas A&M 11. Indiana 12. South Florida
Paolo Uggetti: 1. Ohio State 2. Oregon 3. Georgia 4. Miami 5. Penn State 6. LSU 7. Oklahoma 8. Indiana 9. Texas Tech 10. Florida State 11. Texas A&M 12. Memphis
Dave Wilson: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Georgia 4. Penn State 5. LSU 6. Oregon 7. Oklahoma 8. Florida State 9. Texas Tech 10. Texas A&M 11. Indiana 12. South Florida
Is the U back?!
It’s been a minute.
With Miami’s win against rival Florida on Saturday night, the U — winners of five titles between 1983 and 2001 — made a case to be the top team in the country once again.
This is a program that hasn’t won an ACC title since joining the league in 2004, and now the Canes have positioned themselves as not only the top playoff contender in the conference, but also as the top team in the country. It’s still early, but statement wins are hard to come by, and Miami’s résumé now includes wins against Notre Dame, a ranked South Florida and rival Florida.
The 13-member College Football Playoff selection committee doesn’t release its first ranking until Nov. 4, but based on what each team has done to date, Miami is one of the few teams that has looked like the total package.
The list below is fluid — and will continue to be early in the season. Here’s the latest prediction of what the selection committee’s top 12 would look like if it were released today.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: With wins against Notre Dame, South Florida and now rival Florida, Miami has the best combination of eye test and résumé. It didn’t come easy against the Gators, but Miami’s defense was stifling for the bulk of the game. The selection committee considers the intangibles that accompany a rivalry game and would acknowledge the difficulty of the win, even though Florida is struggling this year. As talented as Ohio State is, Miami now has a stronger case, given the Buckeyes’ best win was against a Texas team that has since fallen out of the projected top 12. Miami has cemented itself as the ACC’s top playoff contender — at least until it’s decided on the field on Oct. 4 against Florida State.
Why they could be lower: If the committee were to rank Ohio State No. 1 at this point, it would simply be because some members think the Buckeyes are more talented.
Need to know: Miami has the best chance of any Power 4 team in the country to win out (19.3%), according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 at Florida State. ESPN’s FPI gives Miami a 66.1% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The selection committee doesn’t typically move teams if they don’t play, unless there is movement around them — and Miami’s résumé bumped the Canes to the top spot this week. Ohio State’s season-opening win against Texas is still one of the best nonconference wins of the season, but that’s all the Buckeyes have at the moment. A win against Ohio and a 70-0 drubbing of FCS Grambling won’t impress the committee. A win against Texas will, but how much the committee values it on Selection Day depends on how the Longhorns fare all season.
Why they could be higher: If the committee has the Buckeyes at No. 1, it’s going to be by a paper-thin margin. Statistically, Ohio State and Miami entered the week almost dead even in all three phases of the game.
Need to know: According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Ohio State entered this week tied with Georgia and Oregon for the best chance in the country to reach the CFP (77%).
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Buckeyes a 64.9% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The 44-41 overtime win against Tennessee in Week 3 gave the Bulldogs their first statement win against a ranked opponent, and the committee will note that it was on the road. It helped slightly this week that Tennessee showed no signs of a letdown in a lopsided win against overmatched UAB.
Why they could be lower: The win against the Vols might not be enough. Georgia’s other wins are against Marshall and FCS Austin Peay.
Need to know: ESPN’s FPI projects Georgia will win each of its remaining games, which would put the Bulldogs back in the SEC title game. What happens, though, if they lose to Alabama on Saturday? There’s still plenty of time — and opportunity — to impress the committee with wins against opponents such as Auburn, Ole Miss, Texas and Georgia Tech. It’s possible that Georgia could have a win over the eventual ACC champion or runner-up.
Toughest remaining game: Saturday vs. Alabama. This game is at home, and the Bulldogs have an extra week to prepare for it, but the Tide have shown continuous improvement since their season-opening loss to Florida State. ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia a 55% chance to win. Even with a loss, the Allstate Playoff Predictor gives Georgia a 65.2% chance to reach the playoff, independent of other results.
Why they could be here: Florida State has been dominant, ranking No. 3 in the country in ESPN’s game control metric. The Noles also entered this week ranked No. 3 in strength of record. The Seminoles are passing the eye test but still need to beef up their résumé beyond a season-opening win against Alabama. The Tide were off this week but have played well against each of their past two unranked opponents, continuing to make Florida State’s win valuable in the committee meeting room. The Seminoles, though, won’t have another chance to impress the group against a ranked opponent until Oct. 4 against Miami.
Why they could be lower: FSU’s statistics are a bit skewed by the Noles’ 77-3 drubbing of FCS team East Texas A&M.
Need to know: Georgia Tech doesn’t face Florida State or Miami during the regular season but could play one of them in the ACC title game. That makes the regular-season rivalry game between the Noles and Canes critical to the ACC race. Entering Week 4, Miami (68%) and Georgia Tech (39.3%) had the best chances to reach the ACC championship game, followed by Florida State (24.1%).
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 vs. Miami. ESPN’s FPI gives the Canes a 66.1% chance to win. November games at Clemson and Florida no longer look as daunting.
Why they could be here: The Tigers’ two best wins — against Clemson and Florida — are now against unranked teams with losing records. Florida State has looked better offensively, and its win against Alabama is better than LSU’s wins. The Tigers’ defense, though, has been something the committee members would notice. LSU hasn’t allowed any opponent more than 10 points this season and is fifth in the country in defensive efficiency.
Why they could be lower: Some questions remain about the offensive line, which features four new starters and hasn’t always given quarterback Garrett Nussmeier the time he needs. Nussmeier entered Saturday averaging 5.88 air yards per pass attempt, and the Tigers are still searching for more explosive plays. LSU’s 17 explosive plays entering Saturday were the fewest in the SEC. LSU is No. 62 in the country in offensive efficiency. The selection committee looks for teams that are in the top 10 in both offense and defense.
Need to know: LSU has a chance to enhance its résumé on Saturday at Ole Miss, where a win would be its most impressive to date and provide some cushion for a tough upcoming stretch. LSU’s schedule is No. 9 in the country, according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 77.1% chance to win.
Why they could be here: Texas A&M had a bye this week after earning one of the best nonconference wins in the country last week at Notre Dame. The Aggies saw their playoff chances increase by 26% following that win. Texas A&M entered this week with a 47% chance to make the playoff. Still, the Aggies are clinging to one win to boost their entire résumé right now, as the rest of their schedule includes UTSA and Utah State.
Why they could be higher: Texas A&M entered this week ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of metric record, which means the average top-25 opponent would have a 37% chance of achieving the same 3-0 record against the same opponents. Some committee members would view the Aggies’ win at Notre Dame as more impressive than the Canes’ win against the Irish because Texas A&M had to win on the road.
Need to know: If Texas A&M doesn’t win the SEC, and it finishes as a 10-2 team — and Notre Dame runs the table and also finishes 10-2 — the selection committee would use the head-to-head result as one of its tiebreakers and give the Aggies the edge. ESPN’s FPI, though, gives Texas A&M less than a 50% chance to beat LSU, Missouri and Texas.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 25 at LSU. The Aggies also have a very difficult trip to rival Texas in the regular-season finale, but right now the Tigers look like a tougher out on the road. ESPN’s FPI gives LSU a 51.6% chance to win.
Why they could be here: Wins against Michigan and Auburn have legitimized the Sooners’ playoff hopes, giving them two quality wins against what could be CFP top 25 opponents. The win against the Wolverines helps separate OU from other contenders with weaker nonconference wins, and it looks even better after the Wolverines beat Nebraska on the road. The selection committee also appreciates star power, and the Sooners have it with quarterback John Mateer, who has a passing and rushing touchdown in 10 straight games.
Why they could be higher: Mateer has been the story early, but the defense and its 10 sacks were the highlight in the win against Auburn, giving the committee a complete team to consider. The wins against Michigan and Auburn might also outweigh the Aggies’ lone win at Notre Dame, though it was on the road and OU won both of its big games at home. The committee would debate if two good wins outweigh one great one — an argument that could also be made with regard to Florida State and its win over Alabama.
Need to know: The Sooners have the fourth-toughest schedule in the FBS, according to ESPN Analytics, so the undefeated start provides a critical cushion for a backloaded schedule that could include as many as six ranked opponents in the final seven games.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Tennessee. Given how tough the Vols played in their overtime loss to Georgia, this should be another slugfest between two talented teams. ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 64.3% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Ducks continue to dismantle weaker competition, including their winless in-state rival Oregon State (0-4) on Saturday. Oregon’s place in the playoff order has nothing to do with résumé and everything to do with dominant wins. The Ducks entered the week ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s game control metric, No. 3 in points margin and No. 2 in the country with 54 points per game. Oregon is No. 1 in offensive efficiency and No. 4 in defensive efficiency, making the Ducks one of the most complete teams in the country.
Why they could be lower: Montana State is an FCS team. Oklahoma State’s program has imploded. And a win against Northwestern amounts to a shoulder shrug. The stats are inflated because of the opponents the Ducks beat.
Need to know: Oregon has the best chance in the Big Ten to make the conference championship game (55.1%) and win it (34%), according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Nittany Lions a 52% chance to win — it’s the only game on the Ducks’ schedule they’re not favored to win.
Why they could be here: The Nittany Lions had a bye this week, and wins against Nevada, Florida International and Villanova are keeping them behind contenders with better résumés. Penn State entered Week 4 ranked No. 41 in ESPN’s strength of record metric — and every team listed above is ranked in the top 20.
Why they could be lower: Penn State ranks No. 71 in the country in offensive efficiency — well below what’s typical of past playoff participants. No wins against Power 4 opponents would also hold the Nittany Lions back. Quarterback Drew Allar entered the week ranked No. 111 in QBR (38.4) and has just four touchdowns and one interception.
Need to know: Penn State hosts Oregon on Saturday in a game that will finally reveal how seriously to take the Nittany Lions. ESPN’s FPI gives Penn State a 52% chance to win. If it doesn’t, it will likely need to beat Ohio State on the road to get a chance at the Big Ten title game — and possibly a rematch with Oregon. Without a win against the Ducks OR Ohio State — and with no Big Ten title game appearance — Penn State’s best chance for a notable win would be against Indiana on Nov. 8. A 10-2 Notre Dame would arguably have a better résumé with the same record.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. It’s the only game on the schedule for which ESPN’s FPI doesn’t favor the Nittany Lions, as Ohio State has a 64.9% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The selection committee considers how teams win — and how they lose — and the Vols have managed to do both as well as can be expected. The committee isn’t going to penalize Tennessee for its 44-41 overtime loss to Georgia, though it will keep the Vols behind the Dawgs as long as their records are comparable. And the season-opening win against Syracuse looks even better after the Orange won at Clemson on Saturday.
Why they could be lower: The Vols are still missing a true statement win, though Syracuse can be a CFP Top 25 team on Selection Day.
Need to know: The Vols’ chances of reaching the SEC title game are slim, according to ESPN Analytics, which gives Tennessee just an 8.1% chance to reach the game and a 4.4% chance to win the title. Tennessee earned a spot in the playoff last year, though, as an at-large team, and can do that again, but it can’t go 0-2 against Alabama and Oklahoma.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 66.3% chance to win. It’s the only game on the schedule the Vols aren’t projected to win.
Why they could be here: The Hoosiers have a convincing win against a veteran Illinois team that last week was in this spot. They had dominated their previous two opponents (Kennesaw State and FCS Indiana State), but this was the first chance to show the committee a complete performance against a ranked Big Ten opponent. The Illini had won each of their first three games by at least 25 points. The committee would also highlight the strong play of IU quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who leads the Big Ten in touchdown passes. He continued that success against an Illinois defense that had allowed only two passing touchdowns in three games.
Why they could be lower: Some committee members could be more impressed with Ole Miss, which entered this week ranked No. 6 in the country in ESPN’s strength of record metric. They could also consider a bigger boost for Texas Tech, which won on the road, whereas the Hoosiers won at home. The committee would also consider the injury to Texas Tech’s starting quarterback.
Need to know: If the Hoosiers are a playoff team for the second straight season, they will have earned it with a more difficult schedule this year, as they still have to face Oregon and Penn State — both on the road. If IU doesn’t win the Big Ten title, it probably needs to at least split with those opponents to win a debate with another contender for an at-large bid.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 at Oregon. ESPN’s FPI gives the Ducks an 82.3% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The win at Utah is better than anything Texas has on its résumé — and the Red Raiders got it done with their backup quarterback. With the win, Texas Tech’s chances of reaching the Big 12 title game jumped to 40%, according to ESPN Analytics. Texas Tech is also getting credit here for beating Oregon State in the same way Oregon did (the Red Raiders beat the Beavers 45-14 a week before the Ducks upended them 41-7 on Saturday). Beating a respectable Utah team, though, in the first Big 12 game for both teams helped Texas Tech enter the playoff conversation as the league’s new leading contender.
Why they could be lower: Ole Miss has had three straight wins against respectable opponents, including back-to-back wins against SEC opponents Kentucky and Arkansas earlier this month. The Rebels also have a case for moving into the committee’s top 12.
Need to know: If Texas Tech doesn’t win the Big 12, it could have trouble earning an at-large bid because it might not play another ranked opponent this season. It’s hard to imagine the committee leaving out a one-loss Big 12 runner-up, though. If the Red Raiders were to lose a close game to a ranked opponent in the league title game, they would still have a strong case for an at-large bid. If they finish as a two-loss runner-up, though, they could lose a debate for an at-large bid with another contender with a better résumé.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at BYU. ESPN’s FPI gives BYU a 51.4% chance to win. It’s the only remaining game the Red Raiders aren’t favored to win.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Florida State
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 LSU
No. 11 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Texas A&M
No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Oklahoma
No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 LSU winner vs. No. 4 Florida State
No. 11 Texas Tech/No. 6 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Tennessee/No. 7 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Penn State/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Penn State
AUSTIN, Texas — Arch Manning passed for 309 yards and three touchdowns in his sharpest game of the season so far as No. 8 Texas cruised to a 55-0 win over Sam Houston on Saturday night.
Manning was 18-of-21 passing and also ran for two first-half touchdowns. He connected with Ryan Wingo for touchdowns of 53 and 13 yards in the third quarter before leaving the game with Texas (3-1) leading 45-0.
“It felt good,” Manning said. “I wish I could have done that the last [three] weeks. But I’m glad we did it tonight … Got the ball in my guys’ hands and let them go to work.”
Manning needed a confidence-builder after a poor start to the season and got one against the overmatched Bearkats (0-4). His passes looked crisp and decisive, and after his first touchdown run of the game, he stood and flexed over a defender before a game official broke them up.
His Texas teammates were glad to see it.
“He got his swagger back,” Texas senior safety Michael Taaffe said. “Everybody knew that it was in there. What he showed tonight is what we expect.”
Manning said he worried he’d get a taunting penalty, and that he quickly apologized to the game official.
“Probably a little much there. My mom was pretty mad about it,” Manning said. “I think it was some built-up frustration for the past few weeks.”
Manning had come into the game completing just 55% of his passes. The preseason betting favorite for the Heisman Trophy had promised several times during the week that he would start playing better. At one point Saturday night, Manning completed 14 passes in a row.
“When he plays a little looser and he’s free, that’s the best version of Arch,” Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said. “He got going and started throwing the ball. Started using his legs. You could feel the bounce in his step on the field.”
Manning said he won’t concern himself with the national chatter about him this week, or the critics who dismissed him after the first few games.
“I’m not really worried about what anyone thinks of the narratives. I’m just trying to play ball, get wins. That’s most important, especially going into SEC play. Right?” he said.
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